What To Watch For: 2012 MLB Season

If you are expressing surprise that I am writing this, hold it until you’re done.  Normally, I care for baseball about as much as Wes Mantooth for Ron Burgundy (super psyched for Anchorman 2 by the way).  But, like Wes, I must conquer this irrational disgust and as everyone looks to the Final Four on Saturday, it makes sense to write about the MLB season, now underway.  So, sit back and peruse the following things to watch for as the baseball season begins.

Power Moves to the AL

If you’re not eagerly watching Albert Pujols in Anaheim and Prince Fielder in Detroit, you’re missing a huge shift in baseball.  All of a sudden, the two best power hitters in the game right now (for Ryan Howard to qualify he must actually make contact) switched leagues, seemingly adding to the wisdom that the AL is more of a hitter’s league.  Both guys lit it up in spring training, so while they are the biggest story coming into the season they also require little introduction.

Musical Manager Chairs

For a 162 game season, the manager of a team can have a profound effect upon his players.  His attitude towards their play, perspective, and conduct will shape the dynamics of the clubhouse for the entire organization.  This season, we will see prime examples of how managers will affect their teams, though the results won’t be noticed until October.

Interestingly enough, new managers are all located in big media markets this year, ratcheting up the pressure for the teams to play well but also to keep themselves out of the tabloids.  Bobby Valentine leads the Red Sox this year after the epic, historic collapse last year.  His reputation precedes him as a no-nonsense kind of guy who generally allows his personality to impede baseball progress.  Many scouts wonder about his ability to manage the team, and what looked like a great idea might be in reality an overreaction on the part of BoSox management.  Also, Ozzie Guillen, after numerous transgressions with the White Sox, starts in Miami.  News is positive for him: he has somehow convinced Hanley Ramirez to be happy, no easy task after the acquisition of leadoff superstar Jose Reyes.  Ozzie, hoever, gave a similar first impression in Chicago before talking his way into management’s doghouse.  But, I think Miami will benefit.

On the other side, first time managers will cut their teeth this year.  Replacing Hall-of-Famer Tony La Russa will be difficult, but Mike Matheny possesses the necessary organizational familiarity to lead the Cards.  He served as a bench coach for La Russa and also played catcher there back in the pre-Molina days so knows St. Louis fans and players well.  Keep an eye on their performance (more on this to come), but I think he’ll do well.  New White Sox manager Robin Ventura, on the other hand, may not have such a bright future.  The franchise hired him as a “consultant” last year before promoting him to manager, with no MLB bench experience.

Most exciting division will be the AL West

For years the teams in the East divisions of both leagues dominated the headlines.  The baseball world seems to care a lot about the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Braves, and Mets.  All big markets so I understand, but your eyes should look West.  The Angels and Rangers are beginning a rivalry close to that of the Sox and Yankees of 5 years ago---spending egregious amounts of money for the same talent.  My initial guess: the Angels hit it big not only by adding Pujols but also CJ Wilson (the best Rangers pitcher last year) as Kendry Morales returns from injury.  Add in Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Dan Haren, and the Angels have a wicked roster and rotation.

Don’t sleep on Texas though.  Their powerful offense remains entirely intact from last season and catcher Mike Napoli continues to shine.  Will Josh Hamilton’s personal troubles of the summer equate to poor play?  Not sure, but he will probably feel a little pressured to make up for his mistakes.  Still, the dude seems to find a hit in big moments.  And, lest we forget, the Rangers added Yu Darvish, who posted a 1.44 ERA last year in Japan.  Not to totally deflate Ranger fans, but I would expect one or two great years before he goes the way of many other pitchers from Japan: injury or poor performance.  We haven’t heard from Dice-K in a while, but one difference to note is Darvish can overpower hitters, very atypical compared to other recent Japanese transfers.

Can Theo turn the Cubs around?

Theo Epstein, former GM of the Red Sox, moved to the Cubs this summer, trying to revive a franchise with top 5 salary and bottom 10 wins in 2011.  While Theo moved away from his value investing methods by the end of his tenure in Boston, he might want to consider similar tactics to start the Cubs.  Sign perhaps one big player to build around and acquire players who do everything solidly.  Alfonso Soriano continues to rot in Chicago, but people like Starlin Castro and Aramis Ramirez provide a good blend of young talent and veteran leadership already on the team.  Time to build around those!

DC Improvement

I’m obviously biased, but I think the Nats will finish third in the NL East this year, barring a spate of injuries.  The team finally can boast a decently potent offense with some overpaid folks (Jayson Werth) being paired with dedicated youngsters.  It helps Ryan Zimmerman wants to play for this team as well.  The issue has always been pitching, and since Strasburg will only pitch 160 innings this season, you might think they have issues.  Oh no…Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez are great starters and the Nats quietly picked up Edwin Jackson, a solid 4^th starter who won the World Series last year.  We might actually see fans at Nationals Park past May this year.

The only reason to watch the A’s

Yeonis Cespedes, a Cuban defector, will play in Oakland this season and should be dynamite.  I don’t have much more to say on that, but might be a great young talent for a while.

Bit #1: Should we listen to McNabb?

Yesterday Donovan McNabb, on ESPEN’s First Take, said he didn’t think RGIII would work well with Mike Shanahan’s system, implying that Shanahan does not like changing his system for the sake of the QB, especially one with the disparate athletic abilities of Griffin.

Clearly McNabb thinks he and Griffin are of the same mold and if he couldn’t work in DC than a similar quarterback won’t either.  McNabb brings up a few good points like “is he gonna institute the spread offense?” but ultimately I have difficulty taking those opinions from a QB who played poorly enough to be roughly thrown out the proverbial door in DC.  I have doubts about RGIII, but we should not view him in any way as second coming of Donovan McNabb.

Bit #2: New rule in baseball

Last season if you remember Derek Jeter skipped the All-Star Game for no real apparent reason other than to rest.  Alex Ovechkin did the same in the NHL this year, sparking an intense debate about the role of these exhibitions and whether players, given their central role, can take liberties with their attendance.  MLB showed remarkable dexterity, instituting a little know rule that players cannot skip the All-Star Game except for injury or other extraneous circumstances.  I think it makes sense---baseball actually uses its All-Star Game to determine home field advantage in the World Series, so the game actually has meaning and gets some viewers as a result.  And, it creates more revenue for them while not depriving fans of big names.  Makes sense to me, but as long as other All-Star games mean very little, the issue isn’t too salient.

Bit #3: More flock to the Heat

Both Steve Nash and Jason Terry expressed desire yesterday to join the Miami Heat next year as they will be free agents, though Nash did say his first choice is a vastly improved Suns team.  I look on this a little bit like the Lakers of 2004, which added Gary Payton and Karl Malone, before being beat by the underdog Pistons in the Finals.  Obviously, Terry and Nash are better now than those fogeys in 2003, but the NBA for some reason hasn’t truly rewarded teams that add a hodgepodge of veterans to “contending teams.”  Then again, if Nash ran the offense in Miami that would be quite a show.  Regrettably, he would need a huge pay cut to make it work for the Heat, but at this stage that might not be out of the realm of possibility.

Bit #4: March 30, 2001 – Phelps breaks world record

In 2001, Michael Phelps became the youngest American swimmer to set a world record, finishing the 200m butterfly in 1:54.92 minutes.  I’m looking forward to seeing Phelps in London this summer, as we are looking at one of the best swimmers ever.

Very Little Madness in Women's Hoops

Every year about this time ESPN performs a great broadcasting service that very few actually acknowledge.  The family of networks shows each and every Women’s NCAA Tournament game, often times with their bigger commentators and analysts courtside.  The network details the bracket, holds a selection show, employs a Bracketologist dedicated to the women’s side, and runs a nationwide women’s NCAA bracket challenge, with corresponding prizes.  Granted, the women’s games don’t conflict with those on the men’s side for television viewers, but ESPN deserves serious credit for such an effort.  But, very few actually watch.  I’m here to explain why.

Being the sports junkie that I am, the last few nights in a hotel have been spent clued into ESPN.  Without the men’s tournament going, the only sporting event I can find on limited Holiday Inn TV channels is the women’s tournament.  So I’ve watched some and have come away with some observations.

It’s very easy to say the women players aren’t as athletic as the men.  While men on average possess more upper body strength and might be jacked out of their minds, athleticism in an organized team sport can only be determined in comparison to the competition.  I can tell you, having watched this, that many of the women playing basketball are extremely athletic, albeit in a very different sense than their male counterparts.  Perhaps the athleticism is less visually appealing, but look at women like Candace Parker, Chamique Holdsclaw, Diana Taurasi, or Brittney Griner.  Powerful, solid athletic talent all around, just different than what we are used to.

But before long we come to the serious backdrop to women’s college basketball: the lack of competition and parity.  Be honest with yourself, as a sports fan you want competition.  Very few unbiased fans like blowouts.  Closer games make for more fun and a better atmosphere.  So what if the athletes be women or men?  Anyone who watched the Women’s World Cup this past summer saw plenty of exciting games filled with high drama and suspense.  Does it help that the American team did well?  Absolutely, but there was an American Rugby team also in the World Cup this past summer, but no one took notice since the games were never close.

Exceedingly low parity truly dooms women’s college basketball.  An enthusiast will point out that only once has the Final Four featured all four number one seeds.  A very true statement, but don’t be fooled.  What they won’t tell you is each year has included a number one seed in the Final Four (two years the men have seen no number one seeds in the same span) and nine 1 vs. 1 matchups for the title.  For the men’s tourney, there have been six such title games since 1982.  The lowest seed to win a Women’s tournament: number three.  Compare that to the lowest men’s seed (number 8) over the same span, and the point should be made.

But, I understand those numbers might not tell anything and, further, how can you gauge parity in such a large postseason as the NCAA tournament, right?  So, let’s analyze how many regional finals since 1982 featured a 1 vs. 2 matchup.  For the men’s tourney, there have been 40 such regional finals since 1982.  For women: 54 meetings.  What does that mean?  Read it as when the tournament starts a region has a 30% higher chance to feature the two seeds in the Elite Eight.  Makes for a less exciting time filling your bracket out, which means you’re less likely to watch.

Also, I find the Men’s Tournament to be at its height with the most madness.  Everyone wants to be the one to pick the upset, the Cinderella.  But here, yet again, the women’s game pales in comparison to the men’s tourney.  Of 120 total Elite Eight berths, only 20 women’s teams seeded below fourth have made it that far.  54 men’s teams have achieved the same feat.  What’s worse, the Cinderella women’s teams don’t win past that stage.  Only 6 such bottom dwellers reached the Final Four, compared to 19 men’s teams.  Of those 19 teams, 8 made the final, with three winning it all.  (It’s amazing what one can do with Wikipedia, a notebook, and a pen).

I think I’ve proven the point.  The Women’s NCAA Tournament has no real depth to it and never has compared to the men’s postseason.  For that reason, very few people, myself included, will likely ever watch it religiously like we do the Big Dance. 

The real question should be why there is such a lack of parity.  In 30 years, only 14 different schools have won the Women’s title, creating a trickle-down recruiting effect.  Top players on high school women’s teams will likely only look at ten or so elite programs.  In addition, with the comatose state of the WNBA, many of these women choose a college they can win with for four years.  You won’t see a team like USC with O.J. Mayo or even a Mississippi State with Renardo Sidney.  Those players care more about being the best players on their team for one year to be noticed by scouts.  Female players likely have no such motivation, meaning they will concentrate their talent on a few specific teams.  I don’t contend that Duke, UNC, Michigan State, Kansas, etc. also draw many top recruits, but the talent in men’s college basketball remains dispersed, giving more teams a chance come playoff time.  46 different men’s teams have made the Final Four since 1982, with only 36 on the women’s side.

This year epitomizes the difficulty of the women’s tournament to make an impact.  For the second time ever, all four top seeds advanced, taking away a lot of the intrigue that we have come to expect from a playoff structure that is so hectic.  Is it unfair to expect the men’s level of depth to translate to the women’s tournament?  Perhaps.  But, when have you ever watched any sporting event just ‘to be fair’?  We tune in for March Madness, but very little of that can be found in the Women’s NCAA Tournament.

Bit #1: NFL Rule Changes

Today the NFL competition committee approved two significant rule changes.  First, overtimes in the regular season will now mirror those in the postseason, meaning to win on your first possession the team must score a touchdown.  A field goal gives the ball back to the other side and they go sudden death from there.  While this is a step in the right direction, I believe strongly that the NFL would benefit from the un-timed college system, just start with the ball at your own 20 yard line.

The other big change does not jive well with me.  Each turnover will now be confirmed up in the booth, not requiring a coach’s challenge.  While I understand the need to get everything right, the NFL should be careful about not going too far with instant replay.  For one, all scoring plays are automatically confirmed upstairs already, so I think the new rule will add more time to the games, though we get rid of the “possible turnover-commercial break-challenge-another commercial-final ruling” sequence that everybody hates.  But, more importantly, sports should not be wholly based on technology and referees should not consistently be verified against the camera.  Hence, baseball will never add replay to review base out or safe calls, since the game revolves very much around the integrity and humanity of referees. In addition, challenges add a fantastic strategic aspect to the game, so I would rather see replay used less rather than more.

Bit #2: Awful Caps showing

To those of you who sent me texts during the game last night, thanks a lot.  The Caps lost 5-1 to the Buffalo Sabres, knocking Washington out of the final playoff spot in the East.  As I continue to say, the issue has always been goaltending.  Vokoun could not stay healthy regrettably, and neither Neuvirth nor Braden Holtby can put together three straight quality starts.  I hope the Caps don’t get into the playoffs just to prove the team needs to focus almost exclusively on defense and goaltending over the offseason.

Bit #3: Laker drama grows tedious

I know stories might be lacking for all sports media outlets sometimes, but I am weary of the Lakers stories.  Coach Mike Brown benched Kobe Bryant in the 2^nd half a few nights ago for poor play, mainly revolving around his shot selection.  Brown benched center and rising star Andrew Bynum late in the game last night for not playing defense and shooting a very ill-advised three pointer.  Many people want to ask why the best players are on the bench, but I give Brown credit.  If he doesn’t show such firmness with All-Stars, how can he coach the less talented players well without being consistent across the board?

Bit #4: The Slough of Despond begins

Some of you may remember my inaugural post welcoming you all.  I admitted my baseball knowledge and interest to be smaller than for other sports.  The truth is, the summer represents one of the worst sports times for me because baseball is the only sport on television.  The season began this morning in Japan, so be prepared for a little less excitement from me between the end of the NBA and the beginning of the NFL.

Bit #5: March 28, 1992 – Laettner’s Big Shot

You’ve all seen this play.  The regional final between Duke and Kentucky featured one of the best buzzer beating shots ever.  Grant Hill inbounded the ball to Laettner on the opposite free throw line.  Laettner dribbled (actually freezes his defender), turned and shot.  The rest is history, as Duke went on to beat Michigan in the championship game to win it all.  While Laettner never panned out in the NBA, he was one of the greatest college players of all time, who in 1992 carried a Tebow-esque mystique, so much so he made the U.S. Olympic Dream team in 1992, filled with pros like Jordan, Barkley, Magic, and Malone.  I also like this play for a personal reason: in a scrapbook at home is a picture of my dad holding my brothers, just days old.  The TV behind him shows the Kentucky-Duke game, with the current score being illegible.  Gives further reminder of sports as a cultural phenomenon that you can tie to important events throughout your life and those of your loved ones.

Tebowmania in for a Rude Awakening

Regrettably I didn’t have this pulpit during the height of Tebowmania in Denver, or else I might have written about it every other week.  Developments this past week, however, create an ideal situation for editorializing.

Don’t worry Tebow fanatics, I won’t fill the post with vitriol about your boy’s many football failings.  In fact, I applaud Tebow for becoming the most versatile running back in league history.  He possesses unique field vision when he hits the second level of a defense, the best for a white running back since the days of Mike Alstott.

All joking aside, I think Tim Tebow remains a truly unique sports personality.  Many disagree with how he expresses his faith, but I continue to tell close friends a player with strong principles (Tebow) helps football more than a player without principles (bounty leader Jonathan Vilma for example).  Additionally, many of his interview provide a valuable insight: Tebow cares about those around him.  He went to Asia as a missionary before he found stardom at Florida, so I fail to see evidence that he is disingenuous or farcical.  Maybe he starts interview with “I’d like to thank God for…” but in my mind devotion to a concept very much outside of yourself should draw admiration.  Why, for instance, can Tebow not being interviews that way without being vilified even though many sports figures want to talk about their charities with sports reporters.  I see only a marginal difference.

Ok, stop and think about the previous paragraph…how much of what I just said has to do with Tebow’s performance on the field?  Absolutely nothing.  Tebow presents a sports anomaly – an athlete many follow for reasons not directly linked to game performance.  Imagine how difficult it must be for a persona like Tebow to improve or focus on his football skills.  The wider world cares not about his sports, but for his belief structure.

For that reason, the Jets should stop kidding themselves.  Their recent acquisition of Tebow has more to do with luxury boxes than football.  Maybe I am proven wrong on this, but regardless why would a team with a set starter acquire another QB with a wider, more ravenous following at all?  The worst aspect of all this: a press conference on Tuesday announcing Tebow.  How many sports teams do you know who plan a large press conference to introduce a back-up at any position? 

The Jets clearly do not plan to give Tebow more than 10-15 snaps a game and while I appreciate wanting to create a buzz, continuing to feed the Tebowmania fire will not make Tim Tebow a better football player.  For one thing, those followers think Tebow plays better than he does and will pine for a QB change too early in the season to save any kind of stability under center.  Additionally, the kind of unrequited, unconditional support for Tebow ties the hands of trainers and coaches who will work to make him better.  By all accounts, he has a great work ethic, but don’t underestimate the pressure fans can put on players, so much so that Tebow might not develop to where he can apply improvements during a game.  Apparently he “fixed” his mechanics in practice last year, but most games after that did not bear out those rumors.  Quarterbacks who need to develop must do just that by getting reps in practice and showing improvement to earn the confidence of a coaching staff.  Development becomes much more difficult when trigger-happy fans call for a change.

ESPN’s Mark Schlereth, an extremely cogent football analyst, pointed out this is why many other players don’t like Tebow and wouldn’t want to play with him.  He continues to create a buzz not for his play but for his non-football celebrity.  Yes his team played well last year, but he wasn’t good enough to be kept on the roster at season’s end.  And yet as Number Two on the depth chart he warrants a press conference, not to mention countless endorsements.  A veteran who plays well without such attention will be jealous and a little bitter. 

The Jets might gain more fans with the move, but very little results on the field.  Tebow will lead their Wildcat formation and likely find some success, but by perpetuating the unrealistic expectations of Tebow faithful, the Jets invite unnecessary ridicule for themselves and likely stunted growth for Tebow as a player.

Bit #1: Congress should be Congress

One might say the Jets are pandering to a certain fan base by trading for Tebow.  The same could be said of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which announced a hearing on bounties in football to happen soon.  Without letting my politics get in the way, the Senate hasn’t passed a budget in three years and thus has plenty to look at outside the realm of sports.  Being a former intern with a Judiciary senator, that specific committee has the largest jurisdiction of a anybody on Capitol Hill, so they have plenty to look into that does not involve sports.  Perhaps they should stick to the matters of national security and social welfare, since I’d say Roger Goodell certainly addressed the problem without Congress’ help.

Bit #2: The dominance of Rick Pitino

Every year I trust Louisville in the tournament, until this year.  After picking them to the Final Four last year, I resolved not to do so this year after Morehead State won in the first round last year.  I trust them for one reason: Rick Pitino.  Somehow, we focus a lot on Dean Smith, Coach K, and Bob Knight as the pantheon of college coaches, but Pitino continues to make a strong case to be included.  He hasn’t won as many championships, but besides Coach K and Smith, Pitino is the only coach to reach the Final Four in four separate decades.  And, unlike the Carolina gods of coaching, Pitino has done so with three different schools, so should always be in the conversation as one of the better coaches ever.

Bit #3: Carousel goes round and round in DC

The Caps struggle to find an identity in goal, especially now that the season starts to wind down.  Against Philadelphia, Winnipeg, and Minnesota Braden Holtby, a call-up from AHL Hershey, played very well, complicating further who will start in net for the playoffs.  For my vote, I say stick with the hot hand.  Folks like Leighton, Roloson, Niemi and Ward are not amazing goalies but led their teams to the Finals by catching heat at the right time.  An elite goalie isn’t needed to win the Cup, but whoever your goalie is must be on a roll come April.

Bit #4: The Odor of Odom

The Lamar Odom business continues to vex me.  How can the reigning Sixth Man of the Year make so little impact for his team?  Odom played 20 minutes or so against the Lakers, scoring one point more than a dead man.  To add insult to injury, coach Rick Carlisle benched Odom for the game against rival San Antonio, reaching the true depths of despair for Odom.  I understand the Lakers system might have worked well for him, but the lack of effort on Odom’s part renders him extremely unprofessional and generally juvenile.  The Mavs must be ready to get rid of him and I hope so for the sake of all who tune in regularly to Mavericks games.

Bit #5: March 25, 1896 – Modern Olympics Established

Other than being the birthday for my brothers, March 25 also represents the birthday of the best showcase of amateur and international sports: the Olympics.  In 1896, the first modern Olympic games began in Athens, Greece.  I always enjoy the Olympics, mainly because the athletes might receive serious perks, but compete for their country and less for themselves.  In addition, the Olympics represent the most complete illustration of athleticism in the world.  Every possible sport of any worth has its place in the Olympics, and while synchronized swimming should be eliminated, fans continue to appreciate the depth of talent we see every two years.  Rest assured, over the summer, I will be paying close attention to the London games.

Bounty Penalties Needed but Too Harsh

On Wednesday afternoon, the NFL announced its most stringent and surprising sanctions in history.  The laundry list of penalties imposed on the Saints includes the following

-          Head coach Sean Payton suspended for the entire 2012 season without pay

-          Assistant coach Gregg Williams, in charge of the bounty program, suspended indefinitely

-          General Manager Mickey Loomis suspended 8 games

-          Team loses second round picks in the next two drafts

-          Team fined $500,000

Make no mistake, these penalties usher in a new era of the NFL, all in one fell swoop.  The game will most likely change, maybe not immediately, but certainly over the next ten years. 

The Saints knew, like all of us, they would receive harsh sanctions.  In my previous post on the bounty system, I compared it to the Patriots Spygate controversy which resulted in fines and lost draft picks.  Many in the sports world believed suspensions would happen in this case and, let’s face it, somebody on the coaching staff should have been suspended.  Commissioner Roger Goodell had to send a firm message and remain consistent.  If linebackers receive fines for hits endangering player safety, coaches and franchises should receive penalties for any institutionalized threat against the safety of opponents.  Makes sense and he will continue to tout that as a primary motivation.

Certainly, he can make that case, but don’t lose sight of the business reasons inherent in this decision.  I don’t doubt Goodell has some drive to protect player safety, but the business of the NFL probably decided the length of these penalties.  As I mentioned weeks ago, players like former Bears QB Jim McMahon are currently suing the NFL for not doing enough about concussions while he played.  The NFL would rather not sit in courts for years with former players, so an attempt to change the culture towards safety has business (and attorney’s fees) benefits.  Still, why such long penalties?

These penalties increased in length because Sean Payton and the Saints lied about the existence of the program.  Like many penalties and cover-ups in the past (Nixon, Tressel, Paterno, etc.) the question remains when Payton knew the program existed and his subsequent behavior.  The report today issued by the NFL found Payton lied to NFL investigators in an interview about the program after being informed of it through internal Saints email traffic.  If true, Payton deserves to be punished, no questions asked.  Williams and Payton can apologize all they want now, but the second they admitted they knew the system was wrong during its establishment, penalties will come regardless.  To lie about a program like this shows organizational arrogance, which most employers and authorities will never accept.

An additional wrinkle: the Saints were caught.  I bet most teams use the pay-for-plays incentive model, but New Orleans should not be excused just because everyone else does it.  Pretty sure that excuse doesn’t fly in the real world.  While I want to believe those calling this an “injustice,” the truth is harsh penalties make sense given the NFL’s recent initiatives, current and future lawsuits, and the arrogance of Saints coaches in not acknowledging the system to investigators. 

That said, I cannot believe a judge in the future would deem the NFL negligent if Payton were suspended for half a season and Williams for a year based on the facts.  A yearlong ban for the head coach not in charge of the defense would not be appropriate just for creating a bounty program, because football will remain a contact sport.  Regardless of if a bounty program matches the nature of the sport, it would be incredibly difficult to prove a specific cart-off or injury resulted from a bounty, though it would be viewed as likely.  A full season ban, then, strikes me as overkill.  I can guarantee an 8-10 game suspension would send a similar message while not robbing Payton of $7.5 million.

In the end, I think the Saints got caught practicing a league-wide program, but that should not excuse them from very harsh penalties.  Of course, fans of Payton will hate it, since he’s out $7.5 million, but he knew about the program and, worse, lied about it.  I disagree, however, with Roger Goodell’s contention that a year-long suspension was the only way to send a message.  Regardless, the precedent set here will water down the “violence” in football, probably to the point where touching the quarterback after a pass would be prohibited.  I don’t like that prospect, so hopefully the NFL does not overreact to a story such as this.

Bit #1: Same Old Jets

Conveniently, the Tebow trade comes one post after I lamented the short memory of NBA GMs this season.  Clearly, Jets GM Mike Tannebaum’s conscience remains conflicted for the quarterback position.  He signed Mark Sanchez to a three year extension last week before trading for Tim Tebow on Wednesday night.

The trade makes very, very little sense.  First, Sanchez’s already flimsy confidence must sink lower now that he knows how many fans will react next season.  The first pick-six Sanchez throws, or the first game he loses, the Tebow Train will ramp up, calling for a QB change.  The state of the Jets locker room probably will not be able to support that kind of fan pressure before folding like a lawn chair, dragging every player through the tabloids again. 

Second, while Tebow upgrades the backup QB spot over the decayed remains of Mark Brunell, I doubt the Jets will change their offense for a guy who might get 10 snaps a game in a Wildcat formation.  Even so, Joe McKnight has done well running the Wildcat in New York, so I fail to see how this move makes any sense for the Jets.

I am in Jacksonville now and can tell you people here are pissed.  New owner Shahid Khan certainly didn’t do well in his first real test from Jags fans.

Bit #2: Best soccer player on the planet

With good reason, Americans focused this weekend on football and their brackets.  Unbeknownst to them, however, Spain saw the undisputed best soccer player in the world break an old record.  Messi scored his 234^th goal with FC Barcelona on Tuesday, breaking the all-time Barcelona scoring set 57 years ago.  In 45 total matches this season, Messi can count 57 goals to his name, as well as a likely clinching of the Copa del Rey and a good chance in the Champions League.  In addition, Messi will likely win an unprecedented fourth FIFA Player of the Year after this season, making a World Cup title the only hardware to elude him.  Such accolades are rarely matched, and while Pele and Maradonna were the best players ever, Messi may reach those heights.

Did I mention he’s only 24 years old?  Think about that…

Bit #3: Double technicals in the NBA

One of the least discussed aspects of the NBA is the use of replay, or lack thereof.  Every time I watch the Lakers, the Dirtbag Formerly Known as Ron Artest goads an opponent into a technical just because they respond to his cheap, Bowen-style play.  In a NCAA game over the weekend, officials were able to review a double technical foul on the floor, but the NBA does not allow the use of replay to do so.  Once calling a double technical (one technical on two players involved in a little chatter), a referee cannot rescind one of the technical fouls.  Perhaps this is a sports geek problem, but somebody should look at it.

Bit #4: Is the NHL next?

With the penalties today in the NFL, I wonder if the NHL will be next to ban violence in its own right.  I refer to fighting.  I admit I am a fighting sympathizer, but fighting in the NHL also is of a different character than violent hits in the NFL.  In hockey, a bone-jarring hit isn’t necessary to prevent a goal.  In the NFL, if a player only tries to strip the ball, the ball carrier will get into the end zone.  Since everybody must hit in football, picking out an intentionally harmful football hit becomes much more difficult.  Hockey, however, does not necessarily require hits, meaning players can more readily spot a malicious hit and police that kind of behavior themselves.  Whether such policing actually decreases bad hits is up for discussion, but we should be careful not to confuse the two.  I will add, however, many NHL goons suffer debilitating head injuries later in life, with many dying too soon, so it does appear the results are the same, possibly justifying a fighting ban.

Bit #5: March 21, 1964 – UCLA Finishes Perfect Season

Yes, back in the day March Madness actually finished in March.  In 1964, UCLA beat Duke 98-83 to finish 30-0 for the season and claim the first of 10 National Championships under John Wooden’s coaching tenure.  Of the 7 undefeated seasons in college basketball, Wooden’s Bruins own four of them.  We continue to wait for another perfect season, as the last perfect team was the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, almost three sports generations ago.

Aftermath of Trade Deadline

The trade deadline in the NBA was last Thursday and while the number of moves might not be overwhelming, we can see certain plans for many franchises materialize through the additions of new talent.  So, there are a few “Lessons Learned” (all the consultants just sighed with exasperation) to be gained from successful trades and unsuccessful trades.

Lesson #1: Short memories best suited for trading

A very interesting aspect of this trade deadline: the awful long-term memories of GMs at play.  Many teams traded players despite huge financial commitments to said players only 8-10 months ago.  For example, Nene Hilario inked a 5-year, $67 million contract in December (4 months ago) but found himself moving from a playoff team in Denver to the Washington Wasteland.  This trade likely will work out for all involved, but I always find myself wondering if GMs watch One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest before the deadline, since they seem to forget everything.  Sure, long-term flexibility makes sense, but to shift your team’s path after only 4 months might end badly and displays too little patience.

Lesson #2: The West remains a dartboard, but watch LA

Determining the top four Western teams after Oklahoma City was always hard.  The deadline did very little to change that, but LA as a city created some buzz. 

The Lakers, often underachieving and raising doubts, finally jettisoned Derek “I’m slower than Charles Barkley” Fisher, upgrading by acquiring Ramon Sessions from Cleveland.  Certainly Sessions can create more offense than Fisher, but the hole in veteran leadership left by Fisher might prove important come playoff time.  While we continue to give the Lakers credit for playoff experience, only four players on their current roster have championship rings.  On the flip side, Pau Gasol can sleep easy knowing he won’t be on the rumor mill for at least three months.  Expect a boost in his production as a result.

The other Staples Center team can sympathize with losing a veteran presence.  Since Chauncey Billups of infinite playoff and championship experience went down with injury, the Clips have played like their former selves.  Adding Nick Young from the Wizards might boost production, but don’t expect the mental toughness to improve on this team.  Young plays “me-first” basketball, clashing with the creative powers of point guard Chris Paul.

Lesson #3: The Nets are scrambling

The deadline opened the floodgates on the struggling Nets, who now have too many leaks to worry about before moving to Brooklyn next season.  Dwight Howard and Deron Williams will not play together this season, partially eliminating any hype the franchise might bring to fans before next season.  The front office, however, cannot really think Gerald Wallace, acquired from the Blazers, will give the team any kind of boost in preparation for next year.  Would you want to have a conversation with Gary Busey or Nick Nolte?  Wallace’s game about matches the mental abilities of both those guys right now.  Now you know how D-Will feels.  He should, and will, abandon the Nets at season’s end.

Lesson #4: Dwight Howard should run for Congress

Very few are as good at kicking the can down the road than the U.S. Congress.  Howard’s decision to stick with the Magic this year sounds great.  No longer will we wake up to more conflicting reports and contradictory rumors from Ric Bucher or RealGM.com…until this time next year.  Howard has shown the decisiveness of a French military commander not named Napoleon, changing his mind every five minutes.  I do not expect that to change and we will have to hear more about him for the next year until he signs a long-term deal with someone.

Lesson #5: Teams not concerned with draft picks

For the most part, the trades this year show a trend of “adding the extra piece” as opposed to “adding a draft pick or two.”  For example, the Indiana Pacers added Leandro Barbosa from Toronto for a second round pick even though Barbosa hasn’t played well since Phoenix and the Pacers likely can’t beat Miami or Chicago in a series.  I don’t think this will last long, however, as many teams will move towards stockpiling more draft picks during the summer.  We may see a huge flurry of trades soon, with so many teams clearing salary cap space for a fewer amount of free agents.

I’m going to devote more time to Bits this post, since many have not been addressed over the last few posts.

Bit #1: Don’t lose track of the NHL

Yes, I am plugging my favorite sport here, but the NHL could create some fun drama towards the end of this season.  As of today, 21 games remain in the season and teams in East and West have a chance to make some noise.

In the East, the Penguins welcome back Sidney Crosby nipping on the Rangers’ heels for best record in the conference.  In their same division, however, the Flyers are only two points behind the Penguins so likely two of the three teams will meet in an exciting 4v5 first round series.  In the Northwest, the Bruins as defending champions do not look good, losing many down the stretch.  I shouldn’t mention the Southeast, but the Caps will probably be the 8-seed, spelling a likely exit from the playoffs early.

Similar story in the West.  The Central Division, like the Atlantic in the East, will probably feature two of the best three teams in the 4v5 series from Detroit, Nashville, and surprising leader St. Louis.  That kind of series would be worthy of a conference final.  The bottom provides similar intrigue, with 5 teams within three points of the 8-seed.

Bit #2: Champions League sets up nicely

In Europe last week, the draw for the Round of 8 placed defending champ Barcelona and Spanish rival Real Madrid on opposite sides of the draw.  While anything can happen in the tournament, some matches immediately jump out.  Barcelona may have their hands full early with AC Milan, while Chelsea (amazingly back after Napoli’s inability to play defense) could give them fits in the semis.  Madrid has an easier road, playing a hard-working but outmatched Cypriot team first and then Bayern Munich, no cake-walk but still not a matching squad.  With all luck, we will see a great final between the Spanish teams come May.

Bit #3: Best aspect of March Madness

As I said on Friday, the NCAA Tournament provides some crazy excitement, most especially on display after I wrote that post.  15 seeds Lehigh and Norfolk State beat 2 seeds in a true sports anomaly.  15 seeds had a 4-104 record coming into the tournament and now we could see two in the Sweet 16, a first for any school ranked that low.  Very fantastic stuff, and something the NBA can never ever match.  I realize this isn’t a terribly insightful Bit, but anytime something this improbable occurs in sports it should be celebrated as much as possible.

Bit #4: March 16, 1872 – First FA Cup Final

For those who don’t follow soccer, the FA Cup is the tournament open to all teams in the English Football Association (FA).  The tournament, often one of the biggest events in England, allows teams from the lower leagues to play against each other and advance upwards against Premiership teams (those in the highest league).  It is the oldest tournament in soccer, dating back to 1872, 140 years.  In addition, the FA Cup accentuates one of the best aspects of European soccer: the prevalence of domestic and international tournaments, like the Champions League.  And unlike a tournament to determine a Super Bowl, soccer tournaments in Europe have longer histories and traditions.

Better Hoops: College or NBA?

I realized this week my blog has been pretty tame from a controversy perspective.  Very few argumentative pieces and lots of re-hashing over certain topics.  I worry some of you may be bored or, heaven forbid, reading somebody else’s blog.

Bouncing off these thoughts, I will address a rather contentious question in the sports world: does college or professional boast the “better” basketball?  By “better”, I refer to more than just the quality of play but the general atmosphere, tradition, and excitement surrounding one or the other.  I will address six main elements and whether the NCAA or NBA can claim dominion over a given aspect of basketball.  It’s difficult to compare stats since professional and college sports by definition embody totally different incentive structures.  Hence, much of my opinion will be based on watching both leagues and less on stats, making this a full-fledged opinion piece.

Quality of Play

Seems like a very broad topic but for the majority of fans and pundits out there, “quality of play” refers to the skill of players as a whole.  In this area, undoubtedly the NBA has a stranglehold.  Players continue to only get better as teams speed up and the scheme of high-flying offense (like one so recently thrown out the door in New York) gains prominence.  I would belabor the point, but I feel as an eye-test makes the point for me.

Advantage: NBA

Defenses

Conventional wisdom seems to think the NBA plays less defense than college as a whole.  For a rare instance, that wisdom is right.  But many also think the lack of defense originates from an inherent laziness in NBA players.  To them I ask, if your long term career prospects required constant physical health, wouldn’t you be careful about jeopardizing that.  Certain NBA players will always play hard, but there is reason not to give 100% on defense every play, especially given the incredible length of an NBA season (82 games + playoffs).  In college, on the other hand, players play for fewer years and can afford to take a few extra charges since they likely will not play professional basketball.  So, college defenses are better as a whole but for good reason.

Advantage: College

Style of Play/Rules

A bit of a mixed bag here, but for the most part the rules in the NBA certainly create more excitement on every night.  For starters, I know few people who like the “dog running around the pole” play in college basketball.  You know…when the point guard passes to the other guard, who passes back and the point passes to the small forward, who then passes back.  I should mention, all these guys are behind the 3-point line.  Such a play epitomizes the worst rule in college basketball: the 35 second shot clock.  Longer possessions might make the game quicker, but it is easy to lose interest when the ball never enters the paint during a possession. 

The NBA presents a completely different model of basketball.  Who doesn’t like dunks above the rim?  Sure, there’s lots of crab-dribbling , but really amazing dunks more than make up for that.  In addition, the deeper 3-point line continues to accentuate the incredible talent in the NBA.

Advantage: NBA

Postseason

Perhaps I’m picking the wrong time to write this post, but I feel March Madness trumps every other postseason structure in sports for two main reasons.

First, the NCAA bases its postseason on the “win or go home” model which always adds drama and intrigue.  We as fans thirst for such situations where your team’s backed against a wall, fighting to play again in two days.  Certainly the NBA format adds drama, but the same effect can only be felt during a Game 7.  The NCAA Tournament, at least in attitude, acts like approximately sixty-five Game 7s.  Need I say more?

Secondly, the Tournament allows the smaller teams to beat the better, more prestigious programs and, better yet, the little guys win.  What makes this so remarkable, in my mind, is the wide talent disparity between schools that meet in the NCAA but we can guarantee some upsets every year in the Tournament.  The NBA already can be predicted before season’s start for the most part (as I said in my Jeremy Lin post) and, more importantly, very few lower seeds in their playoff system do well.  Only four 8^th seeded teams have won a playoff series at all since 1984, for example, and as a whole upsets happen with infinitely less frequency than in the NCAA.

I will grant that the NBA system almost guarantees the best team will advance given four games to win, but where’s the fun in that eh?  At least upsets are common enough for folks to bet on the NCAA brackets, an automatic plus regardless.

Advantage: College

Rivalries

This presents an interesting question, since the rivalries in the NBA and NCAA are both very intense.  But, the rivalries are different in nature.  In the NBA, the individual personalities at play drive most rivalries.  Often, these are the best players.  For example, the Celtics-Lakers rivalry remained in full force when Russell, Chamberlain, Bird, and Magic all played, but since those guys retired and the Celtics began tanking for a while, the rivalry ebbed.  Same with the Bulls-Pistons of the 80s and Knicks-Pacers of the 90s. 

I can guarantee college does not work that way and never will.  Kansas players will always hate Mizzou players, mainly because the schools and states haven’t liked one another for 100 years. Duke-UNC evokes similar emotions and, even when one team isn’t that good, everyone in North Carolina pays attention to the game.  The same could be said of rivalries like Louisville-Kentucky.  These schools have long histories playing each other and since universities grow out of respective cultural climates, might have un-athletic reasoning for disagreeing with another institution of learning, as in the Border War.  While the NBA’s rivalries can flow and ebb, many in college won’t just go away.

Advantage: College

Motivation

Yes I’m going there.  To start, obviously some in the NBA play for pride no doubt.  But, the big money involved explains why those players wanted to be professional in the first place.  NCAA players receive no plainly financial compensation for their services (or they shouldn’t at least), definitely making them a little bit more “pure” than NBA players from a motivation standpoint.  Yes, there are one-and-done players in the NCAA, but think about the hundreds of others for whom the Tournament this week will be the pinnacle of their basketball career.  Many such kids pour their hearts and souls into their teams, not to mention school pride, knowing full well they will move onto another profession after graduation.  Those guys deserve our respect, and the college game is better for it.

Advantage: College

Not an exhaustive list, but overall I think it safe to say college basketball provides the drama and heart needed to make a sport great.  Again, the NBA can provide those things, but NCAA hoops provides more than the NBA in both categories.

Bit #1: Intelligent free agency in DC….tough to believe right?

Given past performance, the Redskins aren’t the first team you’d pick to do well in free agency.  But, the Skins did well this week, adding Pierre Garcon as a deep threat and Josh Morgan as another receiver to provide depth, most likely moving Santana Moss to the slot position.  On defense, looks like LaRon Landry will be replaced as Brandon Meriweather will play in DC next season, flanked by Cedric Griffin who replaces O.J. Atogwe.  I like both acquisitions, for no other reason than the front office clearly didn’t look for the big name guys.  One remaining issue will be the status of linebacker London Fletcher, who needs to be re-signed soon.

Issues Imminent in Orlando

After my tangential Redskins posts (made irrelevant yesterday for reasons explained in Bits), I have a decent amount to talk about.  Every year this week in early March provides perhaps the most intrigue across all sports. March Madness, NFL free agency, and the NBA trade deadline dominate the headlines while we mortals scribble to predict the best playoff in sports, all on one sheet of paper.  Truly fun.

Given those topics, I will not act arrogant enough as if you all will take any of my NCAA predictions seriously, so the most compelling story out there centers around Orlando Magic star Dwight Howard.  On Tuesday morning, ESPN’s Ric Bucher reported the Magic, in an attempt to keep Howard in Orlando long-term, promised him full authority to decide the fates of both GM Otis Smith and coach Stan Van Gundy if he signs a long-term extension.

To articulate the ridiculous argument first, some out there think Howard has done enough to merit this kind of authority.  As a franchise caliber player to build around, some believe Howard deserves the ability to in effect act as general manager in the biggest decisions.  And, what better way to keep him in Orlando by bending over backwards and delegating more responsibility, right?  The franchise went to the Finals once recently so it’s not too much to suppose one good coach or capable GM will propel the Magic back to the Finals.

I could not disagree more.  While I understand the wish to center a franchise around one player for the foreseeable future, the consolidation of authority does not work in sports.  A recent basketball example would be Isiah Thomas, who singlehandedly undermined the Knicks for years. 

Football presents other good examples.  Mike Holmgren could not be both GM and coach.  Jerry Jones thinks he wears both the owner and GM hats well, but hasn’t made any real impact in almost 15 years.  Even the best coach in football, Bill Belichick, has whiffed on the majority of his draft picks since GM Scott Pioli left for Kansas City.  The majority of evidence makes clear that coaching/playing and personnel responsibilities don’t go together effectively.

Obviously, your star player’s opinion matters.  The Lakers would never hire a coach who couldn’t get along with Kobe.  And yet, most players don’t want the responsibility to fire/trade/cut/amnesty others in the organization, nor should they. 

Players possess neither the acumen nor the skill set to combine responsibilities.  GMs must build franchises, whether for the here and now, or the longer term.  Players play in the present, without too much consideration for the future, and become captive to events happening right now.  In addition, the working relationship between a GM and all-powerful player would be extremely awkward.  Would you want your job contingent on the wishes of your inferiors?  Absolutely not.

As far as using enhanced responsibility to maintain Howard in Orlando, I see it as too little too late.  The Magic currently sit somewhere in the middle of the East without any real chance to compete with the Bulls or Heat this year.  Howard can ask for a better sidekick, but barring a huge upgrade, it seems he will leave regardless.  The Magic would do better to gain value for Howard now rather than lose him in free agency or give him a quasi-front office responsibility.  Yes, such a decision will look to many fans like Shaq’s exit from Orlando in the 90s, but at least the Magic might build a little bit.  With Shaq, Orlando was able to reap in zero value or benefit.

Bit #1: QB market upheaval

Last week, Peyton Manning met with John Elway and the Denver Broncos, and by all accounts the meetings went extremely well.  The same occurred with Ken Whisenhunt and the Arizona Cardinals.  The most interesting prospect is not Manning playing for these teams (still not certain) but what such a development bodes for the current QBs on the roster.

Start with the Cardinals.  Somehow, Kevin Kolb continues to fool teams into believing he’s a real NFL starter.  Should his $7 million option be enacted on Thursday, Kolb will have made almost $27 million over three years while playing in 20 games.  Should Manning go to Arizona, Kolb will be out of a job with no real prospects, except maybe Cleveland, as horrible as that sounds.

The Broncos may have found the best way to extricate their team from Tebowmania and the circus that comes with it: replace him with a complete stud.  It speaks volumes about the Broncos that they would give up a playoff winning quarterback from just one season ago.  While I personally see Manning and Tebow co-existing, I would be willing to bet Denver trades Tebow should Manning come to town.

(Just saw the Bears acquired Brandon Marshall from the Dolphins, who clearly must believe their chances of luring Manning to Miami are nil.)

Bit #2: Why my last two posts are now irrelevant

Remember the $40 million number I had for the Redskins salary cap?  Look at that no longer with the NFL’s announcement that the Skins will lose $18 million in cap space this season.  The reason: excessive spending during the un-capped 2010 season.  I have tried to be unbiased in assessing this, but the announcement stinks like a fish market in Anacostia.  The Redskins and Cowboys (who lost $5 million) worked within the rules at the time and should not be penalized in this ex post facto fashion.  Additionally, why would the NFL inform the teams one day before free agency starts?  Furthermore, teams like Cincinnati didn’t spend enough to meet today’s cap floor in that year, so why aren’t they being penalized similarly?  While part of me doesn’t feel too bad for cash cows Jones and Snyder, another part wonders if the NFL knew these penalties would come months ago and delayed announcing.

Bit #3: Massive change in college basketball

The Tournament begins tonight, but I am struck by the changing nature of college basketball, lots of it drawing from the existence of one-and-done.  Those are players who fulfill the one obligatory year of college before jumping to the NBA.  While the quality of play certainly increased, we as fans no longer see those teams with Jordan or Olajuwon as juniors or seniors.  Highly touted high school recruits are less likely to become upperclassmen, denying the chance for many programs to sustain high performance unless they continue recruiting one year players.  I will most likely post further on this when prospects start moving to the draft after the Tournament.

Bit #4: Penguins continue to get better

The Pittsburgh Penguins are getting hot at the right time.  They have won nine straight games without Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang (star defenseman).  The really bad news for the rest of the league: Crosby will return on Thursday.  Might be a bit too early, but the Eastern Conference will be the better conference in the playoffs this year.  Penguins, Bruins, Rangers, Flyers, and even New Jersey have legitimate chances to win the Cup.  Be ready and waiting for this to begin.

Bit #5: March 13, 1954 – Move over Bobby Thomson

On this day, Bobby Thomson, an MLB legend responsible for “The Shot Heard Round the World” in the World Series against the Dodgers in 1951, broke his ankle in a game with the Braves, only to be replaced by one Henry Aaron signifying one of those moments in sports where one legend leaves the scene for the start of another legendary career.  Aaron went on as the home run king for 27 years until Barry Bonds broke the record.  Not really an edifying sports history tidbit, but a fun moment nonetheless.