NHL Second Round

It’s bittersweet to have the first round end, since I’ve just watched hockey over the last two and a half weeks.  But it’s time to look at the final eight teams and see what the matchups are like.

The West

Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames

The Ducks are the only team to have swept their first round opposition, overcoming the Jets after four fairly tough games.  Their presence in the second round should come as no surprise to anyone (though I did pick the Jets in seven).  The biggest reason the Ducks are so rested is their big guys showed up in the first round.  Corey Perry, the sniper for the Ducks, had three goals and seven points in the Winnipeg series.  The Ducks also beat a team that brought heavy physical play to the table, meaning they should feel more comfortable after struggling with teams of a similar model in the past.

For the Flames, the destiny train keeps rolling on.  Thought to be competing for a lottery slot when the season started, Calgary has continued to overcome a less talented roster to win when it counts.  Their series win over Vancouver was surprising not only for its sheer existence but also because it was done without heavy contributions from the top line of Gaudreau, Hudler, and Monahan early on.  By the end of the series, those guys showed up, but they’ll need to be humming early if they’d like to beat the Ducks.

One guy to watch will be Jonas Hiller, the goaltender for Calgary who was a member of the three-headed hydra at this time last year in Anaheim.  He was a big factor in the Vancouver series, and easily can steal games.  In fact, he’ll likely need to for Calgary to beat a team as talented as the Ducks.

Another factor will be the rough stuff.  Lots of pundits won’t mention this right now, since it’s difficult to predict, but the Flames brought their heavy bodies to bear against Vancouver.  Specifically, Michael Ferland and Deryk Engelland are intimidating presences, and Calgary’s game depends on aggressive forechecking.  The Ducks meanwhile do have some nastiness in them, so I’d bet there is some rough stuff in this series.

Prediction: Ducks in six.  That’s the stock prediction from most media analysts right now, and there’s good reason for that.  The Flames have shown resilience the entire season, so while the rosters on paper point to a very short series, two Calgary wins are an easy thing to imagine.  My eyes will be on Fredrik Andersen in net.  While he played well against Anaheim, it’s easy to lose sight of him, but given the closeness with which Calgary plays, he’ll have to shut down their offensive chances to allow his boys time to play with a lead.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Minnesota Wild

For the third straight postseason, the Wild and Blackhawks will meet.  Chicago has won each of those meetings, but this year’s Wild has been the best team in the last three months. 

You may remember I discussed Devan Dubnyk before the first round.  Dubnyk survived a shellacking against the Blues, and quickly rebounded with a near-perfect performance the next game.  That toughness will take him far against a Blackhawks team that perennially competes for the Cup.  Other than Dubnyk, however, the Wild will need production from Zach Parise.  He’s their most talented offensive player and came up with some clutch goals to help the Wild beat the top seeded Blues.  Over the past two seasons, Parise has been held by the Blackhawks to some very pedestrian numbers in the playoffs.  If that changes, Minnesota will be in this.

For Chicago, the first question will be in net.  Corey Crawford is a Cup-winning goalie, but was benched in the last series for backup Scott Darling, who had himself a wonderful series all around.  Crawford looked nervous and shaky, but he’s back in goal for Game 1.  He’ll be on a short leash, so we might not see him for long if he struggles.  One bad game by Crawford might allow the Wild to steal one, which will be critical in a tough series.

Patrick Kane returned gloriously in the first round.  He’s a sparkplug and will have a large effect on the series.  Bryan Bickell, a name I bet no one has really heard of who’s reading right now, has been a barnstorm against the Wild.  In 23 games against Minnesota during the past three years (both regular season and playoffs), he has 15 goals and five assists.  Admittedly, many of those are dirty, go-to-the-net goals, but his contribution has been massive.  If Minny wants to win, they need to shut that guy down.

Prediction: Wild in seven.  Minnesota has more depth than in prior years, and I expect they will victimize some of the lower defensive pairings for the Blackhawks.  While Chicago still brings the vaunted Duncan Keith – Brent Seabrook pairing, their defense has an aging Kimmo Timonen on it.  In addition, if the Crawford/Darling show continues as it did in the first round against Nashville, the Wild might be able to take advantage.  One thing I will say: one of these games goes to double OT.

The East

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Both teams come in after two very tough series.  Montreal won in six over Ottawa, but don’t be fooled they were played extremely close and needed every bit of Carey Price to win.

That’s really what this series comes down to.  Price is the best goalie in the world and probably the best player too.  Tampa comes in after a hard-fought series in which they needed their own goalie to step up.  Ben Bishop just shut out the Red Wings in an elimination game, and while Montreal won in the first round they lack the kind of offensive sparkle that Detroit has.  I think Bishop will be key in this series, and he comes in at a great time.

Which is important, because Tampa Bay is not humming on all cylinders.  Their cannon, Steven Stamkos, has three goals in his past 17 games played.  There has been some speculation that he has a bad injury, but it might just be that he’s gripping the stick a little too tight.  In his stead, the “Triplets” line emerged in the first round.  Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat were by far the best Tampa line all year, with Johnson the key cog after six goals in the first series. 

One thing I should note is that Tampa has psychological impetus here.  They were swept unceremoniously last postseason, in a series that had lots of hype but ended up with a whimper.  I bet they want to make this into a referendum on last year’s performance, so there’s some fun storyline there.

Prediction: Canadiens in seven.  I think after a tough effort against Detroit the Lightning will be right there against their Atlantic Division rivals.   This series looks to be a toss-up between the red lines, meaning I have to lean with the better goalie.  One thing that could change this is if either team gets their power play going (both are among the bottom three for playoff teams), particularly Tampa with the offensive firepower.  In addition, my pick bucks the season trend.  The Lightning won all five games against Montreal this season, and all in regulation.  It looks to me like a different Tampa team right now, but they have that advantage as well.  Still, tough to bet against Price, especially after I did so last round and lost.

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals

For the fourth time in five years, the Caps and Rangers meet in the playoffs.

Personally, I’m tired of these matchups, mainly because the Rangers have our number.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to have changed too much, despite the obvious defensive improvement and increased physicality that’s been added to the Capitals’ game. 

While special teams will factor into the other series, it will be most important here.  The Caps had the best power play over the course of the season, but went cold in their first round tilt with the Islanders.  The Rangers have also gone cold in the playoffs.  But the true key stat for the Caps was their perfect penalty killing record in the first round, and that they only took two penalties per game on average.  That’s good discipline, especially in the playoffs.  My pessimism tells me that won’t continue, as the Rick Nash-led power play for the Rangers will have to reach its stride eventually, but if the Caps can avoid penalties again, they should be in this.

By now, many of the rosters are known.  One addition is Evgeny Kuznetsov, who had a dynamite first round not just in number of goals but in when they were scored.  His game-winner in Game 7 was a thing of sheer beauty, and his performance in Game 5 was critical for a blowout victory (expect none of those in this next series, by the way).  The Rangers will bring back Kevin Klein on defense, who had a very good year.  One notable injury for New York is Mats Zuccarello, who took a slap shot to the face during the first round against the Penguins.  He is speedy and gets under the skin of other players.  Losing him will affect the way New York plays, but speed is elsewhere on their roster in spades, particularly in Chris Krieder.

The goalies will be a focus.  Henrik Lundqvist surrendered eight goals in five games against the Penguins, so he seems to be in top form.  For the Caps, Braden Holtby was solid in the last series, but gave up what we hope is an aberrant bad goal in Game 7.  He’ll need to tie that down and play with poise he’s shown all season.

Prediction: Rangers in seven.  I want to pick my guys here, and this will be a close series, likely filled with unsurprising heartbreak for all Washington fans at one or multiple points.  If the Caps want to win, goals from Ovie will be key, particularly on the road at Madison Square Garden.  The Rangers have a good offense, but getting to Lundqvist will change the entire structure of the series.  I just don’t see it happening, unfortunately.

2015 NHL First Round

It’s that time.  For the next two months or so, the sports world will deal with the NHL playoffs.  Or not deal with them, given how little most sports fan pay attention to them (particularly when competing with the NBA playoffs), but this author knows the great from the colossally unwatchable-til-the-Finals and thus prefers to focus on the NHL.

First, it’s been a weird season.  The defending Cup champions in LA didn’t make the playoffs this year, done in by some plucky Canadian teams and an abysmal middle portion of the season.  Furthermore, the star-charged Penguins are the lowest Eastern Conference seed coming into the playoffs, a wholly unexpected development that brings obscene amounts of joy to anyone with a heart, brain, or moral code.

But the best part of the season was the goaltending.  Carey Price in Montreal had one heck of a year, good enough to almost undoubtedly win the trophy as the MVP.  But he really hasn’t been the story.  What about Cam Talbot in New York, a backup goalie who played his college hockey in the frozen hockey fanaticism of…Alabama?  He backstopped the best team in the league with a record of 17-4-3.  Or how about Andrew Hammond in Ottawa?  More on him to come, but a fantastic story that you won’t want to miss.  Another good goaltending story comes from Minnesota, with the inexplicable rise of Devan Dubnyk, who went from playing for four teams last year to deserving a spot on the MVP ballot.  (more on him to come as well).

It’s been a good one, but here are the playoff matchups:

The East

New York Rangers – Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh has been in freefall the last month or so, and needed to beat the Sabres (the worst team in the league) just to guarantee a spot in the playoffs.  They are rewarded with the Rangers, who set franchise records for wins and points this season.

It’s very difficult to bet against Sidney Crosby and the other young talent the Penguins have, but they have been decimated by injuries this year.  Kris Letang, their chief defenseman, had a wonderful season before being lost to a concussion for the entirety of the postseason.  Considering their loss of Olli Maata and Christian Ehrhoff during the season, Pittsburgh is in a spot of bother.

The Rangers have several weapons, not the least of which is King Henrik in goal.  He’s fully healthy after a break this year.  Rick Nash also scored 40+ goals during the season, and appears to have put last year’s postseason yips behind him. 

One thing to watch in this series will be the play of Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.  He’s been under fire in past years during the playoffs, but had a .920 save percentage this season and retains the “hot goalie” ability to carry his team in the playoffs.

Prediction: Rangers in five.  I bet Fleury steals one game for them, but it’s too difficult to trust a team that hasn’t scored more than three goals in 15 consecutive games.

Ottawa Senators – Montreal Canadiens

The Canadiens competed for the Presidents’ Cup for most of the season, and showed remarkable ability to stay clear of the Lightning and win the Atlantic.  But their prize is the hottest team in the NHL.  Ottawa finished the season on a 21-3-3 run, and has been effectively playing elimination hockey for the past three weeks.

Carey Price is the league MVP, but Andrew Hammond is the most surprising story from the league this year.  Midway through the season, it was debatable if he could play at all at the minor league level.  Thanks to a mix of injuries, Hammond was tapped  in February as the starter.  He has a 20-1-2 record since then, with a save percentage of .941 (Hint for non-hockey fans: those numbers are otherworldly).  He’s going to be the main story in this series, but Ottawa has some help behind him.  Craig Anderson was a finalist for the Vezina trophy not too long ago, and could provide security for the team if Hammond falters or finds his unbelievable luck is at an end.

For the Canadiens, there are questions.  They are 20^th in goals per game, and their leading scorer Max Pacioretty is coming off a concussion sustained in the last two weeks.  On the flip side, Carey Price is the best goalie in the world by a significant margin, and he has the ability to totally shut the door and bring his team to victory.   Montreal also has P.K. Subban on defense, who had a great regular season.

If there’s a guy you don’t know who might factor in this series, it’s rookie Mark Stone.  Since March 1, Stone has 25 points, including 11 goals.  He’s on a tear, and if he continues then he’ll be tough to beat.

Prediction: Senators in seven.  No one wants to pick against Price, and this is the trendy pick by NHL analysts (if anything about hockey can be considered trendy).  But when looking at how Ottawa has played of late, they have the edge here.  Should be a bruising series I’d wager, as there was a serious brawl last time they played in the postseason.

Tampa Bay Lightning – Detroit Red Wings

This is probably the series I have the least to say about.  The Lightning, despite a Cup to their name, don’t have much name recognition nationally, and the Red Wings came sorta close to missing the playoffs entirely.

I also don’t think this series will be terribly close.  For all the talent Detroit has, particularly in its veterans Henrik Zetterburg and Pavel Datsyuk, the question dogging the Wings is in goal.  Jimmy Howard has been a presence for them in recent years, but he struggled mightily this year, so much so that he’s been replaced.  Petr Mrazek will start for the Wings in net, a choice that makes sense given Mrazek’s play of late, but may create confidence issues for the entire team if he struggles

On the Tampa side, they are a legitimate Cup contender.  Ben Bishop has no postseason experience, but with a .920 save percentage this year, he’s an elite level goalie.  The other big name is Steven Stamkos, a 40+ goal scorer who could easily have 55 goals during this season.  But what separates Tampa from other Eastern teams is the depth, particularly the Johnson-Kucherov-Palat line.  They aren’t media-worthy yet, but that trio is offensively and defensively sound.  Johnson has been something of a revelation, an undrafted free agent who plays on one of the best lines in the game.

Prediction: Lightning in five.  For one, I’m not sure who’s playing defense for the Wings these days.  For two, it seems unlikely Datsyuk is fully healthy (even by playoff standards) given a bevy of injuries this year.  Finally, Tampa has something of a fire to win this series after coming out completely flat against the Canadiens last postseason.

Washington Capitals – New York Islanders

Many of the key matchups here are how forwards and defensemen match together.  Obviously, the Ovie train needs to be derailed if the Islanders want to have any shot to win, but don’t sleep on John Tavares.  He isn’t a household name among unconventional hockey fans, but easily was in play for the MVP award this year.

Of large concern for the Caps will be Tavares’ play.  He scores goals and facilitates very well, in much the same way Sidney Crosby works with his teammates.  He’s also a very polished player these days, and with Kyle Okposo back in the lineup New York has a dynamic offense.

So do the Caps, especially on the power play.  That will be a huge area of focus for DC, as the Caps boast the best power play unit in the league and the Islanders are in the bottom five when it comes to killing penalties.  That may be a challenge, however, as the Islanders goalies Jaroslav Halak had a career year en route to 38 wins.

A very interesting note of this series will be not only the goalie play but also the physicality of postseason hockey, particularly around the crease.  Everybody enjoys the shoving in the crease, except the goalies.  Braden Holtby for DC and Halak have been two of the most used goalies in the NHL this year.  Holtby comes in having made 25 consecutive starts (a good thing considering Justin Peters), so mental exhaustion may be a real concern for both coaches coming in.

Prediction: Capitals in seven.  It seems to me the Caps have been outplaying the Isles for a while now, and unlike prior years this Caps team can close the door on a close game late in the 3^rd period.  That said, it will still come down to offense, and DC will need scoring behind the top line.  Brouwer, Laich, Johansson, Kuznetsov, Ward, Chimera, and others will need to show up throughout the entire postseason if we want to see a deep run.  Seems like a slog of a series with evenly matched teams.

The West

Anaheim Ducks – Winnipeg Jets

This will be a series of young goalies, first and foremost.  Ondrej Pavelec is much-maligned, and with good reason, but he’s backstopped the Jets admirably in the last month or so.  He’s 9-2-1 in his last 12 starts and only allowed more than two goals three times.  For Anaheim, Fredrik Andersen is 4-1 in his five starts leading up to the playoffs , but this is the same guy who lost his starting job in the postseason last year.

Winnipeg is a lot like the Los Angeles Kings – tough hockey up the middle and a ferocious approach to a physical presence.  The Ducks have dealt with that a lot over the past few years, so they should be reasonably prepared to see this Winnipeg team.  One player who might tip the scales for Anaheim is Ryan Kesler, who came over from Vancouver in a trade and makes it much tougher to defend the Ducks, particularly in the faceoff circle.  He has a wealth of big-game experience and a feisty personality.  I’d expect him to be around the goal mouth a fair amount.

There is an intangible at play here.  The Ducks have been a great regular season team since Bruce Boudreau showed up, but haven’t been able to make any sort of dent in the playoffs.  While you shouldn’t expect a team this talented to stay down forever when it counts, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry will need to answer those questions eventually.

Prediction: Ducks in seven.  I expect a bruising series, but the Jets have easily the best home-ice crowd in the league.  Tickets for their games were gone in five minutes, and Winnipeg has waited since the mid-90s for a return to playoff hockey.  The Ducks are a better team, but I can’t help but feel they will need the full runway to beat the Jets.

Calgary Flames – Vancouver Canucks

No one has any clue how the Flames are in this spot.  They were predicted at the beginning of the season to contend for last place in the league, but made it into the final tournament.  They are the team this year that doesn’t fit any of the advanced metrics.  Their advanced stats are really bad and their talent level looks woefully short on paper compared to other playoff teams.

That said, they’ve kept winning, defying any and all conventional wisdom to get this far.  Their fans will tell you it’s through plucky determination, grit, chemistry, and a whole bunch of clichés.  One of their defenseman set the single season record for blocked shots this season, so maybe those clichés have some merit.

Vancouver is another somewhat surprising entrant, especially after their implosion last year.  But the Sedin twins had a great year, particularly after the introduction of Radim Vrbata to the lineup for secondary scoring.  The real news for the Canucks will be in goal.  Ryan Miller came over in the offseason to great fanfare, but got hurt in February and has only just returned.  His backup (yup, another one), Eddie Lack, has played very well in the meantime, but a goaltending controversy is almost guaranteed with this team, considering Miller’s pedigree.

For the Flames, the key players will be Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau.  Monahan potted 31 goals this season and Gaudreau might be the most fun player in hockey, especially given his diminutive size (5’9”).  In goal, the Flames will likely run with a two-headed attack.  Jonas Hiller has shown flashes this year, while Karri Ramo has provided a more consistent presence, but the Flames have been flying by the seat of their pants for long enough to where this won’t be too debilitating.

Prediction:  Canucks in six.  It is too much to assume the Flames will keep up their overachieving ways, especially when the last team to have their advanced stats profile (last year’s Avalanche) sputtered in the playoffs.  Plus the Sedins are back, and Calgary will struggle to contain them.

St. Louis Blues – Minnesota Wild

The Western Conference provides another great matchup here.  The Wild have been one of the best teams league-wide since mid-January.  The Blues, in the same vein, played a complete season and were one of the best from top to bottom.

Minnesota will revolve around goalie Devan Dubnyk.  The mid-January trade for him saved the Wild season and, quite likely, the jobs of several Minnesota front office members.  He has started 39 straight games, so there is something of a concern that he might start wearing down from the postseason mental exhaustion.  But nothing indicates that process will start anytime soon.  In addition to Dubnyk, the Wild have Zach Parise to provide a scoring touch and veteran leadership.  Ryan Suter is also their chief D-man, and he’s one of the best in the league.

The Blues, meanwhile, bring one of the best defensive units to the table.  Kevin Shattenkirk and Jay Bouwmeester are the main cogs, but overall the group is solid from top to bottom.  On the forward side, David Backes is one of the best two-way players in the game, and Vladimir Tarasenko and Alexander Steen are substantially underrated when taken together.  The star power on this team won’t blow anyone away on paper, but they are relatively complete.

As with so many teams, the Blues have goaltending questions.  Brian Elliott has been pretty good this year, but not good enough to lock down the starting job.  Jake Allen is a fine goalie, but the bigger point is the team appears to have little confidence in either.  I expect to see both during the playoffs.

Prediction:  Wild in seven.  This will be the best series of the round, by far.  Both teams enter on strong streaks, and their respective strengths will make for a tug-of-war.  But I think Dubnyk will change this series, and a tough series will end with a Wild win.

Chicago Blackhawks – Nashville Predators

Another wonderful matchup courtesy of the Central division.  For much of the year, these were two of the West’s favorites for the Cup.  The Predators in particular looked unbeatable for a good chunk of time, and Chicago had all their stars humming for portions of the season.

But both teams have also looked beatable.  Nashville enters this series as losers of six straight, resulting in them losing the Central crown to St. Louis.  The Hawks have been better lately, but still have looked sorta off at points this year.

The main players in this series will be familiar to many.  Patrick Kane returns for Chicago from a broken collarbone, but how healthy is he?  The other for Nashville is Pekka Rinne, the Finnish goalie who is, for my money, the best player the Predators have.  Nashville’s defensive corps is also an important factor.  Shea Weber and Roman Josi are an elite pairing, and the youngster Seth Jones has played well in his first NHL season.  I also like Cody Franson, a big guy the Preds got from Toronto prior to the trade deadline.

But how does that unit match up with the Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, and other stars the Blackhawks have on their roster?  Chicago also knows how to win in this environment, given they were a triple overtime goal away from the Cup Finals last year after winning it all in 2012.  They also added Antoine Vermette this year to bolster their already deep center corps, so Nashville will need to button down the middle to have a chance in this series.

Prediction:  Chicago in six.  A Nashville win would be good for the sport, I think, as Nashville deserves recognition for its surprising run, but Chicago is the tried and true playo

2015 Masters

It’s a good time of year.  The temps are into the 70s here in DC, and I played my first 2015 round of golf on Easter morning.  It was a season’s debut for a few things, not only my annual dedication to remaining cool on the golf course (which will be followed by annual failure in achieving said goal), but also a Banana Ball approach off the tee.  Remember in Mario Golf the Wario/Donkey Kong hook?  I played with it on Sunday, and it worked alright.

It should also tell you something that, on Opening Day of the baseball season, I am choosing to write about golf.  MLB can come back in June after the NBA finishes, and I’ll consider sitting down with them.  In the meantime, it’s Masters week on the PGA Tour.

Every year, I have a fun time with the golf majors, but this is the pearl of them all.  This year has a particular significance due to the presence of one Eldrick Woods.  Tiger will return this weekend at Augusta, and he needs to do something positive.  After viewing his pedestrian short game in early February, making the cut would feel like climbing Mount Everest.  But this is the same guy who returned at Augusta a few seasons back and finished in the top-five.  Let’s also not forget his bad drop in 2013, without which he would have been right there at the end.  For all of his struggles, he can play the course and may very well be on your TV come Sunday.

In the meantime, it seems like a tournament that could be won by only a handful of players.  Despite the relative parity in golf this year, the tournament’s history is full of winners who simultaneously were near the top of the global game.  Without further ado:

The Heavyweights

Rory – One win at Augusta, and he will complete the career Grand Slam.  After a searing finish to the season last year, Rory won in Dubai this year and finished second at Abu Dhabi on the European Tour.  He’s a man-child, prone neither to the pressures of big moments nor the intense emotional rollercoasters that can tank some players.  If there’s a good bet for this week, he might be it, particularly after his terrible collapse in 2011.
 
Jordan Spieth – Twenty-one years old, and an absolute stud right now.  Spieth, who led the Masters on Sunday last year before faltering, has three wins and four other top-five finishes in his last 11 starts.  In the last three PGA Tour starts, he’s finished 1-2-2.  Augusta always tends to take care of its own, and certainly recognizes familiar faces, but Spieth is firing on all cylinders.  A Rory-Spieth final pairing might be the start of golf’s worldwide resurgence.  If you like golf, you want those two to compete directly with each other.

Bubba Watson – A year ago, I picked Bubba to miss the cut.  He won the tournament, so thankfully I don’t get paid for this.  Bubba’s imagination on shot shape and selection continues to be a marvel, and he has shown the ability to dominate this course when necessary.  Furthermore, his bombing ways are now a little more controlled, and I’d expect him to use the undulations at Augusta to his advantage all week.  Four starts this year, but with two top-threes.

Kinda-Sorta-Maybes

There are some guys who have played well this year, but don’t appear to be at the elite level for competition.

Henrik Stenson – Plenty of golf analysts think Stenson hits the purest irons of any Tour player.  After a surprising missed cut, in Abu Dhabi, the Swede has five straight top-13 finishes, with three of those being in the top-five.  He has plenty of top-25s at Augusta over the years, especially in his last two appearances, but he’s had putting issues.  Most notably, he lost at Bay Hill due to consecutive three-putts, a decided no-no in golfland.

Jimmy Walker – Decidedly more boring than the alcohol that bears his name, Walker has been a revelation at age 36.  He has won twice already this season, and finished in the top-10 in three of the four majors last year.  It would be difficult not to support him, a guy who arrived late to the PGA party but has become something of a mainstay thanks to his schedule.  He plays the big tournaments and the small tournaments well.

Jason Day – Every year it seems Day is about to break out, or finally win a major.  He is ranked fifth worldwide and has three top-fives in six tournaments this year.  After a 2014 filled with an injury to his thumb that he worried might be career ending, Day has returned with strength.  He has a second and third place finish in this event since 2010.  It would be good to see him win or compete this week, as golf needs more younger guys for its relevancy.

Really Dark Horses

Rickie Fowler – There’s no reason to put him on this list.  Fowler has not been especially dominant this season, but he deserves a look thanks to his play in the majors last year, where he finished top-five in each of them.  Thus far in 2015, he’s had a slow start, but this is the same guy who had a missed cut three weeks before the 2014 Masters. 
J.B. Holmes – If you don’t know him, you’re not alone.  Holmes can straight up bomb the ball, and is one of the longest guys on Tour.  He has one win this past week in Houston, but also lost in a playoff earlier in the year and blew a huge lead at the Cadillac Championship.  He’s in fine form, and will need a reassuring placement this weekend at Augusta.

Dustin Johnson – After taking a leave of absence from golf last year, DJ has come flying out of the gates.  He’s finished sixth or better in four of his last five events, and won against a very tough field in the Cadillac Championship.  He’s down here because he never seems to get it right in the majors, or at least he hasn’t for quite some time.  Of greater concern is that while Bubba has become something of a surgeon with his booming driver, Johnson has had the opposite problem, so maybe that changes this week.

Guy I would like to see win

Erik Compton – Despite his 117^th world ranking, Erik Compton is one hell of a story.  He’s had two heart transplants in his life, one at age 12 and the other in 2008.  Thanks to his second place finish at the U.S. Open last year, the 35-year-old will debut at Augusta this weekend.  You can’t help but root for this guy to be there on Sunday, and do well enough to get back next year.  He has been through a lot, and deserves some recognition in this space.

2015 Draft Options

There’s been plenty of talk over the last several weeks about the Redskins draft discussions.  Much as I’d rather herald my triumphant return by discussing the Caps and the imminent NHL playoffs, the Redskins have several options with the #5 pick in the draft this year.

Option #1: Hope Mariota Falls to You

Marcus Mariota has come in for a pre-draft visit, and you can bet new GM Scot McCloughan has to be thinking about getting his own quarterback to come into D.C.  By now, sports radio in this area has discussed this ad nauseum, and the thought of finding a new quarterback is tantalizing for fans.  After the three-headed monster last year, the Skins could use some new blood.

This is by far the worst realistic option for the team.  For one, it seems increasingly likely that Mariota won’t fall past the Titans at #2.  Even if he does, the Washington Redskins do not need another spread offense quarterback out of a system most successful in college.  Folks will point to his gaudy accuracy numbers and his ability to create with his feet.  Granted, those are wonderful attributes, but has a quarterback with those traits succeeded in the NFL over the past several years?  Many are probably tired of this logic, as they can point to Michael Vick’s first few years in the league as the ceiling and there’s always a thought that the game will change with more of that type of QB in the college ranks.  Russell Wilson comes up a lot here as well due to his more hybrid nature, despite his having played a pro system at Wisconsin and NC State.  One need only look at the development of Andrew Luck to see that the prototypical NFL passer model still works.  Mariota took five snaps under center last season, so I don’t think he makes any sense for the Jay Gruden pocket offense.

Option #2: Take the Edge Rusher

There are candidates for this role, most notably Dante Fowler from Florida, Vic Beasley from Clemson, and Shane Ray from Mizzou.  Randy Gregory out of Nebraska is also out there, but I think the team will shy away from him considering his marijuana-related past offenses, which the team has had a problem with over the past two seasons. 

These guys are all good, and if McCloughan were to take any of them, the likely Orakpo successor would be in town.  If it were me, I would take Ray due to his explosiveness and motor, but I know little about how to make sure you pick a guy like Von Miller rather than Shea McClellin, so you can easily ignore my suggestion as to specific players.  The best characteristic of this strategy is that McCloughan has talked often about taking the “best available player” regardless of positional need.  In this case, those might match up perfectly.

But the right way to go is the following option.

Option #3: Trade Down

Trading the pick makes the most sense.  The needs for this team are too legion not to do so.  Run through it with me: QB, all offensive linemen except left tackle, edge rusher, inside LB to backup or maybe replace Perry Riley, and safety.

That’s quite a list, and doesn’t really address what appears to be a morass in the making at cornerback behind Deangelo Hall.  Depth across the board needs to be improved, but especially on defense.  That is done best by stockpiling draft picks.

There is another reason to trade down a little deeper in the top 10.  One of the four edge rushers should be available.  Take a look at what the top 10 is likely to look like:

Bucs – QB

Titans – QB
Jags – DL (Leonard Williams)
Raiders – WR (Amari Cooper all day)
Redskins – DE/OLB
Jets – WR
Bears – WR/DL
Falcons – DL/OLB
Giants – OL
Rams – WR/DL

Let’s say the Rams want to get higher to pick Kevin White ahead of the Jets or Bears.  If they offered the tenth pick and their 3^rd round pick, we could still get one of the four rushers mentioned above.  In fact, it’s highly likely, since the Jets don’t need more DL help and the Bears seem set on filling the Brandon Marshall hole.

The rationale for trading down is a good one.  That’s just as true if Mariota falls to #5 and some team wanted him.

We can fill a need in the bottom part of the top 10, so I don’t see a pressing reason to hold onto the pick if the price is right.

Option #4: Do Something Stupid

An obligatory inclusion given the presence of Daniel Snyder…it’s always an option.  I think drafting Cooper would qualify as “something stupid,” as he can’t help anytime very soon.

The Redskins need to rebuild at almost every major position.  As such, the need has never been greater for a GM to assess the landscape and decide to stockpile draft picks.  If McCloughan’s scouting is half as good as advertised, the team will benefit from this strategy.