The Road All Too Traveled

This past week, I entered into a conversation with my dad about the Frost poem, “The Road Less Traveled.”  Whereas I extolled the narrator’s virtue for being willing to try something new and cut against the proverbial grain, my father emphasized a different point.  For him, the narrator does nothing exemplary, he just picks a road.  Which road doesn’t matter because it’s all arbitrary, and we as narrators never know if we’re choosing the proper road.  I rarely if ever read poetry with any kind of discerning eye, but those are two radically different interpretations.  It made me wonder…in situations where the morally “right” path is clouded, do we just make a random, happy-go-lucky decision and hope for the best?

I have a feeling the NFL, in all its marketing wisdom, might be wishing they had taken a different road over the past few years.  Lawsuits about concussions spawned research projects and, before too long, on-field penalties.  The most subjective foul call in football, hitting a defenseless receiver, came directly out of the NFL’s concern for its players.  You don’t have to lead with your helmet anymore…any contact with the head merits a 15 yard penalty.  Heaven forbid the quarterback pay some consequence for leading his receiver over the middle.  He is, after all, an offensive player, the darling and main beneficiary of any NFL policy since pass interference.  The outrage from players and fans was immediately evident on this policy and many feared for the game.

Well, once you use player safety as a justification, there’s no real stopping that train without some concerted effort.  A low hit on Dolphins tight end Dustin Keller blew out his knee this preseason, resulting in a season ending injury.  While Adrian Peterson’s 2012 performance (and RGIII’s 2013 performance, I bet) show knee injuries can be overcome, they can be extremely debilitating.  And many receivers, most notably Tony Gonzalez, are now turning the player safety excuse on its head.  For these outspoken critics, the NFL’s head-hunting policies have shifted the main zone of contact to the lower half of the body, as Keller’s injury showed.  D.J. Swearinger, the offender in this case, admitted afterwards that he went low on Keller to avoid a fine from the league for a high hit.

In addition, Vikings defensive tackle Kevin Williams had his knee rolled up by a 49ers offensive lineman who went low on a block when Williams did not see him.  The NFL deemed that a legal hit, much to the chagrin and, in some cases, absolute ire of Vikings players.  Thankfully, Williams did not tear any ligaments but did hyperextend his knee.

I think we may have hit the point where the NFL has to accept that football is an inherently violent sport and that any attempt to make it constantly safer will suffer from interpretation and subjectivity issues.  Two players get injured in exhibition games and all of a sudden the league says it will look into rule changes.  If two players next year break arms because of shoulders to the elbow, will the “strike zone” on an opponent’s body shrink that much further? 

I will admit that I can see the Vikings’ case.  It strikes me as ridiculous that Swearinger might be branded dirty but a low block, directed at the knees, is deemed legal.  Defensive players can, and do, have their knees blown out on low blocks.  As of now, a run blocker can chop at the knees of a defender.  If the NFL wants to take a consistent tack, eliminate all knee-to-knee hits.

But consistency doesn’t seem to be the league’s strong suit.  As of now, there are no concrete guidelines for hits on defenseless receivers, leaving the impression of rules for the sake of rules.  Over regulating where defenders can strike opponents will not have the desired effect.  Ryan Clark, the Steelers safety who has virulently attacked the NFL’s safety policy over the years, pointed out that defenders will have serious issues stopping offense if they can’t hit low.  Said Clark, "If they decide to change this rule they might as well put flags [on players] because then you give a guy like myself, who's 200 pounds, a two-foot area to stop a guy who's 240, 250 running at full speed, and that's going to be kind of hard to do."  The game, already so skewed towards offense, will continue moving that way.

So the league, strongly committed to their conception of player safety, now finds itself in a bind.  The players certainly don’t want more of their members to experience concussions, but I’d be willing to bet they also want fewer broken bones and torn ligaments.  If the NFL gives the impression that it accepts knee injuries in order to prevent head-related lawsuits down the road, the NFLPA will raise a stink.  And, from an equitable standpoint, they should.  No one in the union wants to see more former players losing cognitive ability, but they also likely don’t want to see any former players in wheelchairs at age 50 either.  For them, once the league wanted to make the game “safer” for players, everything might be fair game.

Many want to sound the death knell of football these days, and while the impulse can be hard to suppress there remains a long way to go before such dark days as that.  But, the NFL has been caught in its own web.  In attempting to protect against lawsuits (the real impetus for the head injury rules), it now looks like the floodgates might have been opened.  The league started trying to police a violent game and has boxed itself into a corner.

Bit #1: Numbered days for the NCAA

As seen above, I am reticent to mark any institution for premature retirement.  Loaded rhetoric about the end of sports entities should be avoided, as inertia has yet to really penetrate the idle nature of the sports establishment.

That said, the recent announcement by the NCAA that there is no evidence implicating Johnny Manziel points to the end of the NCAA.  Manziel, long suspected and even investigated in relation to a free autograph signing, will sit out the first half of Texas A&M’s season opener.  With the suspension, the book is closed on this matter.

There are problems with this outcome, none bigger than the mixed messages being sent by the NCAA.  After holing up with Manziel for six full hours and finding no evidence, why suspend the kid at all?  By NCAA rules, he made a secondary violation by unwittingly signing autographs for brokers who would profit from his John Hancock.  A first half suspension for the game against C-USA opponent Rice achieves almost nothing.  So, is he being punished for the violation or just for being at all implicated?  I have to wonder if an investigation that turned up so little really merits any kind of suspension.

Bit #2: NFL’s Settlement on Concussions

Aha!  In a time when the days of the NFL look so numbered to many, it would seem the league is just as healthy now as it ever has been.  On Thursday, the league announced a settlement with the legions of former players suing the league in connection to concussion-related injuries.  The plaintiffs estimated the damages at somewhere near $2 billion, a gargantuan sum that might also spur insurers to leave the NFL to its own devices.  Without insurance, the business part of football would never run properly or even be worth it.

In stark contrast to the figures given by players, the NFL settled for $765 million.  A full $675 million will go to former players suffering cognitive impairment with $85 going to baseline medical exams and further research into concussion prevention.  A $9.5 billion business will only have to pay $382 million over the first three years and the remainder over a further 17 years.  Given the likely inflation of NFL revenues over time, this is a steal.

Bit #3: Defensive Player Will Never Win the Heisman Again

In the lead-up to yesterday’s college football openers, the media practically salivated over the chance to watch Jadeveon Clowney, the defensive end for South Carolina and presumptive top pick in the 2014 NFL Draft.  Many thought Clowney was pushing for the Heisman and might actually break a disturbing trend.  No  pure defensive player has ever won the Heisman.

Charles Woodson did win the award in 1997 as a cornerback, but I’m unwilling to call him a “pure” defensive player.  Woodson had eight interceptions that year, some of which are truly highlight reel material, but his special teams play, particularly at key points, sealed the award for him.  He beat out Peyton Manning, who threw for almost 4000 yards, 36 TDs, and only 11 interceptions.  What separates Woodson, however, is he never had a bad game.  He played well in every game of that season.

That’s the ultimate curse of the Heisman…one bad game can sink your chances.  By now, the award has become so offensively biased that defensive players need to play out of their skulls week in and week out to win.  Hugh Green, the last defensive player to come in second, had 17 sacks in a season and averaged 10.3 tackles per game…and still lost to a running back.

Point is, a game with no sacks last night means Clowney has likely no chance this year.  Too bad, but that looks to be the way of it.  I’m thinking that barring a culture shock at the Heisman Foundation, there isn’t going to be a defensive winner ever.

Bit #4: What happened to UConn Football?

During my first year of UVA, I went to a football game against UConn.  During that game, with UConn driving down the field, we looked toast before two fumbles swung the game for the Hoos late in the 4^th quarter.  It was a great feeling (one yet to be repeated by UVA football I should add), but UConn looked good in that game.  They looked even better two years later, winning the Big East and advancing to the 2010 Fiesta Bowl.  Despite a loss in that game, the program looked to be on the way up.

Since then, nothing has gone right for anyone.  Coach Randy Edsall jumped ship for Maryland, where has won six games in two seasons and stands one bad season away from being fired.  UConn recruited Paul Pasqualoni from Syracuse to chair their program who has yet to lead the Huskies back to a bowl.  Even worse, he has lost to the MAC’s Western Michigan two years in a row.  But the worst moment came last night, when UConn lost to FCS opponent Towson by a lopsided 33-18 score.  Yuck

If You're Gonna Stiff the Man, Give a Reason

In a little noticed story yesterday, the 1972 Miami Dolphins, the only perfect team in NFL history, received the welcome of President Obama at the White House.  Arguably one of the best teams in history, Miami didn’t have the chance to go to the White House in the early 70s.  The president at that time spent many of his waking hours covering up the stupidest political move in history (like George McGovern could have beaten Nixon anyway).  About 20 of the unbeaten team came, receiving the hero’s welcome that group so richly deserves.

A fun light moment occurred when the President mentioned that his beloved Bears lost only one game in 1985 to the Dolphins.  If you’ve never heard of that game, take a look for the recap.  It’s a modern classic.  Don Shula, touting an impeccable resume as Dolphins coach, made sure to remind the President that he coached that 1985 team.  Regardless, the pageantry was fantastic and enjoyable for everyone there.  Greatness deserves recognition and it’s too bad it took so long in this case.

But, an even smaller story around this trip came up yesterday.  Three of the original team, Jim Langer, Manny Fernandez, and Bob Kuechenberg, did not travel with their former teammates.  They refused to attend out of disagreement with the President’s politics and policies.

Those of you who know me personally know my agreement with the President rarely extends beyond “Something must be done” (and it might not even get there sometimes).  But, if he called me tomorrow to come to the White House for a chat, a basketball game, or an ice cream sundae I’d do everything I could to be there.  I suspect many Americans would.  How often do you get a chance to meet the sitting President?  And, when you do, do you know how long it will take to sit with him?  Do you know what he’ll talk about?  These are all good questions, and the answer is usually either “not really” or a flat “no.”

For the Three Stooges, they cited general differences.  Langer, a Hall of Famer, cited the “lack of a moral compass in Washington” as his reason for not attending.  Fernandez quipped his views are “diametrically opposed to those of the President.”  Kuechenberg, said he doesn’t “believe in this administration at all.  So I don’t belong.”  In essence, he saw hypocrisy in attending the gathering.

Every man can choose his path, of course.  But, this is ridiculous for a few reasons.

First, the hypocrisy charge makes no sense.  Simply by being on the stage with the President does not mean you support him in any way shape or form, especially when he honors an athletic team.  By that logic, parents might not send their kids when the children’s choir sings at the White House.  There’s nothing hypocritical in taking a free trip to the White House, regardless of party in power.

While all three men kept their comments short, I would also suggest that a greater political statement could be made by them shedding their views in favor of camaraderie.  By not accepting the stage with the President, you are in essence giving credence to those who bemoan the lack of civility in politics.  These players started in the trenches and, at the end of each game, gave their respectful appreciation for opponents.  Why can’t that kind of sportsmanship extend to politics?  This is not a political gathering, the President said nothing about his policies or his plans for the country.  Do these guys truthfully find his views so repulsive that they are unwilling to speak with him, shake his hand, or sit through a nonpolitical speech?

It would appear so, and yet these guys stared diametric views in the face every Sunday.  Is there any view more polarizing than “I want you to win and I want you to lose”?  That view got the postgame pat on the back in the 70s, but a well-intentioned honoring of your team by the guy who happens to be in the White House right now isn’t worth your time?

My point being, this is petty.  What adds to the pettiness for me is that these guys are unwilling to give a certain policy position that keeps them from the event.  Matt Birk of the Baltimore Ravens did not attend the White House ceremony for the Super Bowl winners, mainly because he publicly does not support same-sex marriage.  I admit, that’s a little petty, but can anyone challenge his boldness?  He’s willing to forego an opportunity while publicly giving a substantive reason why (agree or disagree, I’d say an issue-based refusal is substantive).  Giving your point of disagreement is more admirable than a boilerplate “we disagree” or needlessly worrying about hypocrisy.  These guys could have given a much better reason for not attending. 

In the end, one White House ceremony doesn’t matter much (another reason for attending, by the way) and there’s no need to go down this road any further.  But, unless you’re willing to speak out on a matter you deem very important, a special team event deserves your attendance. 

Bit #1: The Quietest Grand Slam Ever

For the second week in a row, I have a Bit about a sport very few people watch: doubles tennis.  Very quietly, the Bryan brothers, the 35 year old American identical twins, need one more win at the U.S. Open to complete the Grand Slam.  They would be the second men’s doubles team to win the yearly Slam, the first team having accomplished it in the 1950s.  For all the discussion about American men’s tennis and its plight, the Bryan brothers are easily the best doubles group in tennis.  They are a whopping 7000 points ahead of their closest competition in the world rankings and, prior to the last major of the year, have wrapped up the top ranking in the world.  The brothers have won 92 titles in their career together and, while neither has made much headway during singles play, it certainly is an impressive accomplishment.  Not to mention, these guys won the gold medal last year in London, meaning there is a potential Golden Slam at play too.  Watch the coverage of this story increase as we continue towards Flushing.

Bit #2: Congressional Intervention

Representative Elijah Cummings, the top Democrat on the House Oversight and Government Reform committee, announced yesterday that Congress may feel compelled to intervene in the NFL for HGH testing.  The NFLPA and the NFL agreed to a pathway for testing back in 2011, but there has been no concrete agreement since those days.

The rumors of HGH use in the NFL are disturbing…almost every former player on record has claimed that players partake of human growth hormone.  It’s a problem that the NFL can conveniently brush under the rug.  Business is booming, so why get involved in a banned substance conversation?

While I agree that any kind of cheating should eradicated, Congress should not be holding public hearings meant to excoriate the members of a private business.  Football does not qualify as an essential service to citizens, meaning the rationale for Congressional “oversight” shouldn’t really go very far.  If the Committee wants to monitor the situation or make back-channel calls to the league offices, that sounds great.  But a hearing does absolutely nothing to bring the two sides closer to a deal.  We saw how well Congressional “intervention” worked for steroids in baseball.  The Mitchell Report, for all of its controversial revelations, did nothing to fully stem the tide of steroid use in the sport.  It’s time for governing bodies to concern themselves and their time with issues that actually affect the well-being of all citizens (aka anything that utilizes taxpayer dollars at the federal level).  I don’t think the NFL applies.

Bit #3: Ryan Braun Needs More to Heal His Rep

Yesterday, Ryan Braun, the Brewers slugger who has been suspended for the remainder of the season due to steroid use, released an apology.  He made sure to point out the fans and his team when directing his condolences.  But, Braun’s apology is very hollow.  A year ago, I wrote on this blog that Braun very likely used steroids and won his appeal on a technicality.  Well, his behavior yesterday could not be more different from the firm yet humble image Braun presented last year.  Back then, he said he would be the first one to say if he had done something wrong.

Yeah, well, he refused to put himself in front of the cameras.  He hid behind a statement that in effect reads like “I’m sorry I got caught.”  While I don’t want to unnecessarily whine about baseball any more than I already have, we all know Braun will be embraced again.  It happened to Andy Pettite and Jason Giambi after their admissions.  Mark McGwire admitted to cheating and is a hitting coach for the Dodgers.  Fans are the unwitting participant in all of this and until they hold these guys to a higher standard, the benefits of doing steroids may very well outweigh the costs.  If you ask me, Braun did what Lance Armstrong did.  He personally attacked those who doubted him (remember the test collector who lost his job after the Braun case?) and now comes back with his hat in hand.  It’s ridiculous and everyone should be sick and tired of this behavior.

Good Intent, Bad Execution

Instant replay was always going to become more important in sports.  High definition TV allows you to count Suzy Kolber’s dead ends and to see the white stuff at the corner of Keith Olberman’s mouth.  We live in a technological world where the best seat in the house really is your couch.  You see everything clearer on TV and you don’t need to worry about driving home.  And, as usual, what drives consumer preferences will also drive the adjustment of businesses.  In the NFL, the referees see every view of a play as provided by commercial TV stations.  The professional sports leagues can no longer look their fans square in the face and plead the honest mistake…HD replay can expose poor officiating and, by association, bad business.

Baseball is the most American of all major sports.  Not only did it originate in the U.S., but the game drew the unswerving fascination of this country from about 1900 to 1985.  No other sport held the minds of its viewers like baseball.  The detailed stats that we still keep from the pre-Ruth days shows just how much baseball could accurately be called an American pastime.  We’re used to baseball’s eccentricities, the spitting, chewing, and ridiculous signs (I mean seriously, you’re telling me every time the manager scratches his pit it means “hit and run”?).  But one irregularity that always irks fans is a missed call.  And baseball has seen its fair share of those over the years but, regrettably for baseball purists, the 2013 season has been rife with poor decision-making by Blue.  The umpires picked the worst time to step off the reservation and, for the first true time, their job security might not be as high as it once was.

I certainly will never advocate for a computers-only system, but something needed to change.  Baseball acted to take care of the situation, but in doing so they may have gone too far.  I have used this space before to suggest a manager’s challenge as a convenient way to maintain the human element of the umpires while also allowing some relief for a blown call.  MLB, subject to a further vote by owners and players, took that a good deal further. If the proposed rules come into effect, a manager would have one challenge per game through the sixth inning, and then two per game from the seventh to the end of the game.  All challenges would be reviewed by the Eye in the Sky at MLB HQ in New York.  Life in the NFL, if you win a challenge, you retain it.

Not a bad system, but part of the strategy for the manager should be whether to use a limited number of challenges.  I know MLB wants to give plenty of relief for when the game comes to the wire, but if a manager had only one challenge over an entire game that would go much further in maintaining some of the baseball tradition.  Yes, calls would still get missed, but that way managers can no longer whine about not having anything concrete in arguing calls.

One likely consequence will be the lessening of manager tantrums on the field.  The typical major league manager will only have balls and strikes to argue.  Most other plays would theoretically be challengeable.  That’s too bad in my book, as half of my YouTube views on baseball involve tantrums somewhere.  But the new rules give a little too much to managers, and while calls will be corrected without issue, MLB should maintain some strategy for teams coming into games.  I applaud baseball for taking action, but in this case, I think they did too much.

Bit #1: Women’s Golf

I know, it rarely if ever hits your radar screen that women play golf on a professional tour.  Many of my erstwhile readers either dislike golf or barely recognize its existence.  But, this weekend, the LPGA Tour will stage its version of the Ryder Cup.

The Solheim Cup is a fairly recent institution, dating back only to 1990.  In comparison with the men’s Ryder Cup, the event creates a very small amount of enthusiasm.  That seemed to change into the 2000s as Sweden’s Annika Sorenstam hit her stride.  But now, the event feels largely devoid of suspense.  The teams bring some talent with them to Colorado, but only four of the world’s top ten will be represented.  Compare that to last year’s Ryder Cup which featured nine of the world’s top ten.  The European Solheim Cup team will be starting a rookie ranked 147 in the world.  That’s not good, by any means.

I admit the Solheim won’t be must-see, but every time golf transitions to a team game the strategy becomes much more interesting.  I know too little about the game of women’s golf to offer any kind of educated guess, but the U.S. did fall flat on Sunday two years ago.  Maybe they overcome that memory?

Bit #2: Signing the Future Away?

Johnny Manziel is a Heisman winner, an accomplished football star, and some kind of stupid.  I want to feel sorry for Manziel.  I cannot imagine how a guy can cope at age 20 with all the media attention Manziel receives in a given day.  He found success early and now must come to grips with that notoriety.  He’s had a difficult summer, full of ill-advised Tweets and, if stories are to be believed, too much drinking with the Mannings.  But how can we feel bad for a kid who continually makes these mistakes?  Sure, he’s 20, but after a few missteps, one would think he’d learn his lesson.

Apparently not.  This past week, stories broke about Manziel being paid to sign memorabilia.  Gradually, the initial story escalated as an unnamed broker claimed to have paid Manziel for six separate sessions.  Should the NCAA deem this to be true, Manziel could be declared ineligible.  Thankfully for A&M, all alleged actions took place after last season, meaning that the program will not experience any penalties as of right now.  But, should they decide to play him this season, a guilty verdict by the NCAA will bring the school into the doghouse.

If you ask me, A&M should probably sit Manziel for the first two games.  They can point to a meaningful “suspension” while conducting their own internal investigation.  The NCAA will not publish a finding for a while so a successful A&M season likely brings in money and recruits at the expense of losing a few scholarships later.  But, the real stupidity here rests with Manziel.  After the Ohio State scandal two years ago that cost coach Jim Tressel and QB Terrelle Pryor their jobs, if Manziel agreed to compensation than he either hasn’t listened to anyone in College Station authority or has misplaced his priorities.  That’s harsh, but not the smartest move by Manziel by any means.

Bit #3: Retiring too Early

I don’t expect many to follow or know much about tennis these days.  The men’s game has three titans and the women’s side rarely brings forth anyone but Serena Williams.  And when it does, usually there is little consistency.

But Marion Bartoli has been there.  She’s fought hard for many years, finally breaking through at Wimbledon this year.  She’s ranked 7^th in the world and is only 28 years old.  She’s won eight singles titles.  And she retired on Wednesday, citing recurring injuries.  She’s had knee, ankle, leg, and shoulder problems in her career, but has also played in every Grand Slam since the 2002 U.S. Open.  That’s ridiculously impressive for someone who struggled for as long as she did chasing the Big Win.  Not to mention, she has a two-handed forehand, an aberration so intriguing you have to wonder why you don’t watch tennis more.  Ok, maybe not, but it’s still pretty cool.  Anyway, she’s retired way too early.

NFC Preview

While the NFL considers ridiculous rules on touchdown celebrations (another topic for next time and deserving of my righteous indignation), I’m gonna go through the NFC.

NFC South

1.      Falcons (11-5)

2.      Bucs (9-7)

3.      Saints (8-8)

4.      Panthers (8-8)

Weird Looking right?  Yeah, the prediction looks a little funky.  It doesn’t usually happen that three teams from one division end up on the fringe of playoff contention, but I’ll explain the logic a little bit.  In short, Atlanta has too much and not a whole ton of weaknesses.  The Saints have a porous defense, we don’t know about Josh Freeman in Tampa, and Carolina might need Mushin Muhammad back at receiver just to add a warm body.  Both the Falcons and Saints also have really tough schedules (Atlanta is 15^th, New Orleans is 5^th), so I expect win totals to be deflated.  But, if either team can get through, they might have good luck in the postseason.

I see Tampa as surprising everyone this year.  Their biggest weakness, pass defense, looks to be remedied through Darrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson.  Those two will anchor a secondary to hopefully new heights.  For the Panthers, the wide receiver corps is spaghetti thin.  Steve Smith continues to draw double coverage and play well, but Brandon LaFell isn’t the guy I’d bank my hopes on in a passing situation.  They could easily be 7-9 this year.

Cam’s Jam: Cam Newton is the best playmaker in this division and if he can resurrect his running game, the Panthers will be a dangerous team to play.  Newton must share a backfield with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but given their injury history he will likely not be doing any appreciable sharing.  I think he is the X-factor for the whole division, especially if he can figure out a way to involve pieces like tight end Greg Olsen.  I tend to think he won’t deliver, but if he does, Cam leads this team to second place while playing the toughest schedule in the league.

How can you do that to Drew Brees?  Well, once I found out he stiffs waitresses for tips, I felt less bad about this.  The Saints D, though, erases all the benefits of Brees.  That unit gave up over 7000 yard last year (440 a game for you math kids).  That’s the most amount of yards ever allowed by a defense.  Their new coordinator, a homeless DC Metrorail hoodlum named Rob Ryan, will bring a new scheme to town that has very little chance of working in the first year.  Kenny Vacarro was a great draft pick at safety, but nothing was done to beef up the front seven.  Bress’ numbers will still be gaudy, but don’t expect him to override defensive problems.

2013 is the year:  We will know about Josh Freeman by the end of this year.  He may have the most riding on this season, as he will likely be reverted to Patrick Ramsey status if the Bucs fail this year.  As you can see, I don’t think they will.

Pretty good division: Every pick on here has these teams winning more than Vegas predicts.  Might not be a bad way to make some cash.

 

NFC North

1.      Packers (12-4)

2.      Bears (8-8)

3.      Lions (7-9)

4.      Vikings (6-10)

What about last year?  So one thing I realized…this division had three teams above .500 last season, all of whom reached double digit wins.  So while I gave my NFC North picks last year a hard time, I did see this division as being something of a power.

This year, I have very little faith in it.  The Packers are self-explanatory, as Aaron Rodgers remains the best player in the game offensively.  But, his success will be tempered by questions surrounding the defense, which seemed unable to make big stops last year.  If this team ends up with four losses, they will still be somewhat soft.  I don’t know about a deep run, but never count out the Cheese.

The other three teams are tough to predict.  The Bears have the talent to really make offense happen, especially with Marc Trestman now at the helm.  Brandon Marshall likely won’t be targeted 40% of the time this year as he was last year, so there will be a new look definitely.  Still, I trust CFL coaches less than I trust Canadians, so I expect there to be some growing pains in Year 1.

The Lions don’t have the roster of a 7-9 team, but there are some questions.  My biggest is they replaced three starters on the offensive line.  Another problem is Matt Stafford has no one else to throw to other than Calvin Johnson.  Additionally, when the Lions aren’t losing close games they are being arrested, so discipline might be a point of concern.  Plus, Jim Schwartz likely costs this team at least one game with a stupid clock management decision.

Lastly, the Vikes may have the best back in football, but they create almost no offense otherwise.  Greg Jennings adds a lot at receiver, as does Cordarrelle Patterson, but as long as Christian Ponder throws this team will not be able to stand the heat.  On D, Antoine Winfield was a huge loss for pass coverage, but Xavier Rhodes may contribute as a rookie.  Still, too many holes.

Schedules matter:  The Packers, Vikings, and Lions all have top-10 tough schedules this season.  I see that adversely affecting both Minnesota and Detroit especially.  Both teams need a little help and have gotten no favors from the NFL on this.

Can Trestman succeed?  My answer is not this year, but new GM Phil Emery should give fans some confidence.  He solidified the offensive line dramatically by adding three pieces, the biggest of which being Jermon Bushrod.  He also has a better chance to do well through the stingy defense Chicago will likely field.  That unit won them a few games last year, and the loss of Brian Urlacher is a blessing.  D.J. Williams joins via free agency as does Jon Bostic through the draft so Lance Briggs will have deep company.  The Trestman theatrics might have a chance with that D, so maybe postseason for this team.

David Akers still plays? He does, for the Lions.  Losing all-time Lion Jason Hanson meant the kicking game looked to be in flux.  Adding Akers, a lefty with a poor record of kicking under pressure, sounds like something of a reach.  If the offense hums pretty well, Akers may need to make a few long ones.  Can his leg handle it?

 

NFC West

1.      49ers (13-3)

2.      Seahawks (11-5)

3.      Rams (8-8)

4.      Cardinals (5-11)

Best Division in Football?  Remember a few years ago when the 7-9 Seahawks won the NFC West and received a home field postseason game?  People began calling for a change to the playoff seeding formula, only to feel stupid right about last October.  Two of the conference’s top three teams are in this division.  Both San Fran and Seattle not only played great last season, but worked through the offseason to improve their respective rosters.

For the Rams, I see them being like the Bucs.  It all will come down to Sam Bradford.  The draft pick of Tavon Austin makes up for losing Danny Amendola on the outside, but Chris Givens and Brandon Gibson need to produce more for the offense to really hum.  Not to mention, the Rams replace their best player from last year.  Steven Jackson being gone opens up some small concern at running back, but Daryl Richardson may be capable.  Arizona has a new head coach in Bruce Arians who has done wonders with Andrew Luck last year and Ben Roethlisberger the years before that.  If Carson Palmer has the willingness to be retaught a little, he may improve dramatically.

Great defenses all around: The hallmark of this division will be stingy defense.  The Niners have a fantastic front seven, using Justin Smith as a run stopping machine who consistently eats two blockers.  The secondary might be in flux a little bit, but they may have three Pro-Bowl linebackers at the end of the year between Bowman, Aldon Smith, and Willis.  Everyone heard about the Seahawks last year, and their secondary returns with the same pieces plus tackling extraordinaire Antoine Winfield.  Bruce Irvin’s suspension puts new arrival Cliff Avril in the spotlight, but he has played so well in Detroit that he shouldn’t miss a beat.

The Rams have one of those defenses that is full of high draft picks, and you think it has to really pay dividends soon under success freak Jeff Fisher.  Chris Long, Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers, James Laurinaitis, and Janoris Jenkins are all first round picks.  William Hayes surprised with seven sacks from the DT position, and he returns this year.  In Phoenix, the loss of Daryl Washington due to a four game suspension hurts, but Darnell Docket and Calais Campbell still bring a huge presence to the defensive line.  Don’t forget, that team started 3-0 last year mainly due to defense.

Why not Seattle? Look at lots of predictions, and about half show Seattle winning this division.  Lots of people look at Marshawn Lynch creating opportunities for Russell Wilson to shine.  Play-action passes likely will be rampant throughout the Seattle offensive scheme, and for good reason.  People are smart to pick Seattle, but I won’t because I’m not entirely sure Russell Wilson will maintain such a high level of performance.  He remains fairly long and despite the coverage afforded by the running game (and his own legs for that matter), Wilson remains a sophomore.  I think a mini-slump is not out of the question, especially when compared to the explosiveness that Colin Kaepernick brings in SFO.  The two QBs have a chance to dominate the league for a bit, so don’t worry about Seattle in the future.  But, I think Kaepernick keeps the crown.

Receivers Optional: I am always amazed when teams that don’t field great receivers succeed.  We would think that the game requires not just good receivers, but speedsters that can break open the field.  Well Seattle didn’t have a 1000 yard receiver last year, and after Michael Crabtree (1105 yards) the Niners threw more to Vernon Davis (548 yards).  This is more of a committee approach.  And, both teams bring tight ends into play that can take the heat off a quarterback.  Davis in San Fran and Zach Miller in Seattle will benefit greatly on play-action passes, meaning we could see some valuable TEs out West.

Can Bradford do it? Fair question.  The last of the rookie mega contracts, Bradford presents a very interesting conundrum.  He hasn’t been great according to many, but last year was his best statistical season.  The issue is it was his third starting season, and the previous year he was 1-9 as a starter.  Eeek.  As I said, he needs to have more guys open this year to do well.  Bradford may be another Josh Freeman in the making, but thankfully expectations remains somewhat low for him right now.

One Team I Didn’t discuss much?  The Cardinals.  Why?  Because they’re boring and very unlikely to compete.  The addition of Tyrann Mathieu adds media fodder, but otherwise the Cards will be looking to adjust to life under Bruce.  The signing of Rashard Mendenhall continues an Arizona tradition of hiring veteran running backs that were great but now can’t seem to stay out of their own way.  He will start and could see a resurgence, but I’m not really putting too much on that.

 

NFC East

1.      Cowboys (9-7)

2.      Giants (9-7)

3.      Redskins (8-8)

4.      Eagles (6-10)

I hate this pick: Thus far, I’ve been pretty good about not pumping up teams too much.  My predictions, while full of much thought, aren’t too surprising.  Whether you think predicting a Cowboys divisional crown is ambitious…that remains up to you.  I don’t like doing it, as nothing would hurt me greater than seeing the Blue Star in the playoffs.

But, objectively, the Cowboys have the fewest number of questions.  They have two, one glaring and one possibly simple.  The first is how they adjust to the Tampa 2.  Monte Kiffin, the architect of this 4-3 system, brings a vastly different feel than last year’s coordinator Rob Ryan.  And I don’t mean the feel of a balding head.  He will put linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer down on the line, allowing them to leverage their prodigious pass rushing skills without worrying about pass coverage.  For Ware, a 4-3 end in college, there may be some adjustment, but I wouldn’t bet against him playing well.  Otherwise, the defensive personnel are stout enough to perform.

The other question in Dallas is one we’ve all heard for years: can Tony Romo play up to the level people expect.  I certainly will say Jerry paid him way too much money this offseason, but Romo almost threw for 5000 yards last year with a 65% completion rate.  If he can decrease the 19 picks he also threw, the Boys will be in business, even with a potentially nonchalant running game.

The Giants and Nine Wins: For whatever reason, the Giants seem locked on nine wins.  They’ve won nine both of the last two seasons, so I’d put them up here again for nine wins and making the playoffs in the sixth spot.  We are all waiting to see how draft pick Justin Pugh contributes to the O-line that didn’t do very well last year.  Another concern is the running game.  With Ahmad Bradshaw gone the Giants are all-in on David Wilson, placing a lot of pressure on him to perform.  The other real concern on offense should be the health of receivers.  Hakeem Nicks has not fared well in the medical world these past two years, and with Martellus Bennett gone as tight end Big Blue needs some extra help for Victor Cruz.

On defense, the Giants look to be fine, but no better than fine.  If Justin Tuck can return to anything resembling form, the defense can mix and match much easier on the D-Line.  There is a legitimate question as to who fills the shoes of Kenny Phillips at safety, which will contribute to an up and down season.

Will the high-flying stuff work out? Chip Kelly has a chance to bring a truly unique offense to the NFL.  Michael Vick remains a huge risk, even more so if the offensive line struggles to protect him again.  But, given what we know of Kelly’s Oregon days, Vick’s running ability will be prized.  The bigger concern will be the blocking and how the line adjusts to blocking not only for Vick but also for LeSean McCoy.  People love to point out how badly college coaches have done in recent NFL seasons, but no one has brought as much potential as Kelly.  His offense thus far has not been anything close to pro-style, so we’ll see how this goes.

I think a six win season would be good for the franchise.  On defense, the Eagles switch to a 3-4 that will increase commotion on the front lines. Cary Williams played well for the Ravens last year when needed, and Kenny Phillips will provide veteran leadership at safety.

The biggest concern has to be whether the O-line can be healthy and whether the best offensive player, LeSean McCoy, can find an effective use in the offense.

More than one way to Skin a cat: Alright, I love the Skins as you know.  I will tell you what I’m excited about first.

The defense will be somewhat improved, especially on the back end.  With Brandon Merriweather not yet healthy, Bacarri Rambo will be asked to fill in at safety.  In a year when everyone in DC misses Sean Taylor, Rambo could be the man for this year.  Phillip Thomas will also be in the mix at safety.  David Amerson has received generally positive reviews from pundits, but I remain concerned that he will not justify the high draft position we used on him.  Still, anything to give DeAngelo Hall a reason to fear for his job is fine with me.  As well as the secondary, Brian Orakpo will start the year healthy, giving the pass rush a major boost.  Losing Adam Carriker until November hurts from a run prevention standpoint, and Jarvis Jenkins’ suspension means DC may start a jerry-rigged solution for the first four weeks on the D-line.

It’s also tough not to feel great about Alfred Morris.  I maintain the Redskins would have won against Seattle last year had they given Morris the ball more than twice in the second half.  The blocking scheme patented by Shanahan appears to be working nicely, and Morris will benefit.  The prospect of even a somewhat healthy RGIII makes me feel warm and fuzzy, but there’s a part I’m not as excited about.

I think it highly likely the read option formation won’t be as big a part of this year’s offense.  Griffin can eat up yardage using that formation, so if his mobility is a little impaired the playcalling will adjust.  We likely see this Week 1 while the Shanahans try to protect Griffin as best they can.  Still, we forget his accuracy (65%) and low interceptions (only five last year) which means even a hobbled Griffin can still be dangerous if he completes his full throwing motion.

The reason I don’t see us getting over .500 has many manifestations, but they all center around RGIII in some way.  First, we have no historical basis for believing Pierre Garcon will fully play up to his potential, and Fred Davis is coming off a tough Achilles injury.  Don’t get me wrong, RGIII has plenty of receiving weapons, but I’m unwilling to bet on them.  The one glimmer of hope is that the presence of Alfred Morris will cause defenses to fall for play action.  Still, Griffin needs to be close to ready for this season if the Redskins want to repeat their division titles.  I know I’ve forgotten…this team was 3-6 at one point last year and looked to be dead in the water before rattling off seven straight wins.

Despite back end improvements, the pass protection and defense remains a huge liability for the Skins.  Josh Wilson did well last year when called on, but Deangelo Hall continues to be burned by opposing receivers.  With any luck, someone will supplant him shortly and DC’s prospects as a city, vacation spot, and political center will improve.  Remember when Gandalf creepily exorcises Sauruman out of Theoden in Lord of the Rings?  Yeah, that’s what we need on defense.

Also, the schedulers didn’t help us with an early bye.  I would prefer to have that rest come later so as to better preclude the chance that RGIII breaks down later in the season.  Unfortunately, our two easiest games (Detroit and Oakland), come before the bye. 

Putting it all together, I think .500 is a likely result.  We don’t have any idea about the passing offense or the health of some very key players, so it’s tough to pick a division victory.  A saving grace is how close the NFC East is, with three teams legitimately close to the top.  It’s a roll of the dice, but I bet against my guys.