Playoff Predictions

I’m on my game this year.  One day after the postseason field is filled I have my predictions going.  But, as has been said by many NFLers, all records are now 0-0 for these twelve teams.  In essence, it’s something of a game of chance, but why not take the time? 

Wild Card

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Last time these divisional foes met, Ben Roethlisberger threw six touchdowns.  Le’Veon Bell had only 20 yards on the ground, but he wasn’t really needed.  Since then, however, Bell has become a driving force for the Steelers, not just in the rushing game but also in the receiving aspect (he had 83 receptions this year).  His knee injury, suffered last night against Cincy, is cause for concern if I’m the Steelers.  The one saving grace is that the Ravens have a stout rushing D, and Haloti Ngata returns from suspension to anchor the defensive line.

This is essentially a toss-up for me, but I’m gonna run with Pittsburgh.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see this game go to Baltimore, but the Steelers defense has played better and we’ve seen the offensive explosiveness from Pittsburgh all year long.  Steelers 31-27

Bengals at Colts

It wasn’t that long ago I thought the Colts might challenge in the AFC.  The 11-5 record seems to bear that out, but since their Week 10 bye Indy has beaten the Jags, Redskins, Browns, Texans, and Titans.  During that same period, they’ve lost badly to the Pats and the Cowboys.  Somehwat absent is the team that started the season with close games against Denver and Philly.  Cincy is also a team without much coming in.  Their win against Denver two weeks ago was impressive, but does anyone still have any belief Andy Dalton can lead this team in the playoffs, especially if A.J. Green’s concussion keeps him out for a while?  The two-headed running attack has been awesome this year, and that will be the key to a Bengals victory.  The Colts might want to learn about the running game at all, as Trent Richardson’s 519 yards in 15 games isn’t going to get many defenses quaking.

Like the other wild card game, tough to tell who’s the better team.  I’m tempted to do the sensible thing and pick against Andy Dalton, but after they beat Denver and have a formidable running game, how can I?  Bengals 24-21

Cardinals at Panthers

It’s a real shame Carson Palmer isn’t playing.  The Cards have gone 3-4 since his injury, and despite a tough defense they don’t really bring much to the table right now.  Ryan Lindley has not played very well, so the hope that Drew Stanton comes back as QB is a larger X-factor.  Carolina may be 7-8-1, but they’ve rattled off four straight wins.  I should add they’ve received tons of help from their defense on scoring plays, which can’t be expected to continue.  But to get a home playoff game?  Against the Cardinals?  They’ve shown a lot lately and while the numbers might not be crazy good, they have played well when needed.  Even if Stanton does come back, I don’t think the outcome changes.  Carolina is the better team right now and they should win.  Panthers 21-10

Lions at Cowboys

Damn those Eagles.  If they had made this more compelling of a playoff race, the Cowboys could theoretically have been 11-5 and still missed the playoffs.  Instead Dallas capped off a remarkable season and will host a playoff game.

This game seems like an assured Cowboy win.  DeMarco Murray has been disgustingly good all year, and Tony Romo is having by far his best season from a results standpoint.  Not to mention the defense has somehow managed to stay afloat despite a bedraggled roster on paper.  Detroit, on the other hand, may have been one game from the division title, but their lack of a running attack to wear down the Dallas defense will create the same one-dimensional game we’ve grown to expect from the Lions.  Stafford is prodigious, and he has Megatron, but they haven’t played better than Tony and Dez this year.  Throw in the running attack of Dallas, even against the deep Detroit running defense, and I think this game is a blowout.  Cowboys 35-17

Divisional Round

Bengals at Patriots

Attention has focused perhaps on other AFC teams, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the Patriots.  They are the class of this conference, and their “resurgence” this season, after a lot of nay-saying, occurred at home against Cincinnati.  Admittedly, the Bengals were not well-versed in the ways of Jeremy Hill at that time, but the Pats are a top-10 rush defense this year.  In typical New England fashion, the Patriots have also been a chameleon, finding different ways to defeat their opponents.  Given the history this year for Cincy in Foxborough, I find it hard to fathom the Bengals have any legitimate chance to win this game.  Patriots 27-7

Steelers at Broncos

The Broncos have not been as good as expected this year, especially in the past four weeks or so.  The discovery of C.J. Anderson certainly adds a necessary new component to the Denver attack, and it’s never a good idea to bet against Peyton Manning.  The key for Pittsburgh will likely be Antonio Brown’s matchup against Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, which will be legendary.  Brown needs to have a big day to beat Denver, and there remains uncertainty as of this writing due to Bell’s knee injury.  I expect this to be a competitive game, but the Broncos have been able to win multiple different ways this year, and they are undefeated at home.  Broncos 21-14

Panthers at Seahawks

Won’t waste much time here.  The Seahawks have the best pass defense in the league, and since Week 10 they’ve given up an average of 215 total yards.  I should add only twice in that same span have opposing rushers gone above 75 yards (admittedly, those two games were big ones by the Chiefs and 49ers).  When putting them against Carolina, which has primarily relied on the running game this year in some form or fashion, it seems inconceivable that Seattle loses.  Not to mention, Seattle has a dynamite home-field atmosphere.  Seahawks 24-7

Cowboys at Packers

If things work out as I foresee, this will be the best game of the playoffs prior to the Big One.  I know, Lambeau Field is almost impossible to play in, and it’s Dallas.  But, if there’s a game that might win in Lambeau, the Cowboys have it.  Their defense, as I said, is better than most and they bring a great rushing attack.  The Pack should hope Aaron Rodgers brings that pesky calf injury to heel, because if he is knocked out at all, this team quickly becomes a shell of something great. 

Despite what I said about the Dallas run game, I think we can expect a shootout here.  The Packers score in bunches and they score often, particularly at home, meaning Romo may need to keep up with Rodgers.  I think he can do it with Dez’s help.

An interesting sidenote: Dallas went undefeated on the road this year (including at Seattle).  Green Bay didn’t lose at home.  When presented those two streaks, I have to go with the home team, especially in Green Bay. Packers 42-38

Conference Championships

Note:  Some of you I’m sure will wonder why you’ve read this far only for me to pick the top two seeds to be there at the end in each conference.  I get that, as I’m always disappointed when prognosticators do this (Jay Bilas has a terrible habit of this for March Madness).  But, think back on the season.  At various points, the Patriots and Packers have been discussed as the best teams in football.  The Seahawks seem to have taken that moniker in the public eye lately, and with good reason.  And Denver has Peyton Manning, and a deep defense that has won lots of games this year.  Like it or not, these four teams have the fewest questions about them of the twelve.  If I had to pick a dark horse, however, to reach this stage and the Super Bowl, I’d have to go with Dallas.

Broncos at Patriots

Earlier, I said betting against Peyton is never a good idea.  The caveat is you can when he plays the Patriots.  He’s 5-11 against New England, and, very significantly, 2-8 in Foxborough.  I look back to their meeting this season, in which Denver was down 20 points at halftime.  Denver fans will say there’s a lot for Peyton to learn from that performance, and while they are undoubtedly right, his history in that stadium does not give me any confidence.  Patriots 37-24

Packers at Seahawks

The Packers are 22^nd in rush defense, which says a lot for how they stack up against today’s Seahawks (as opposed to the team they played in Week 1).  Rodgers will have to throw the ball against the best pass defense in the league.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Seattle struggle to put points on the board, but it looks like too many mountains for the Pack.  Seahawks 20-14

Super Bowl

Another note:  For those of you accusing me of weak-willed chalking yet again, I remind you the top two seeds met in the Super Bowl last year as well.  Historically it is unlikely, but there aren’t two better teams than these right now.

Patriots vs. Seahawks

This is the matchup we all want to see right?  The mad genius mind of Bill Belichick against Pete Carrol’s ra-ra in your face pump-up tactics.  The one loser in this will be the media, who will have to listen to Belichick and Marshawn press conferences for two weeks.  The number of unique words used at those events might be less than 100.

Both teams have been dominant, and this being a neutral site game will help the Patriots to get away from the terrifying CenturyLink Field.  But, this matchup looks similar to the Super Bowl last year.  Great offense against great defense, all-time QB leading said offense.

Belichick is perhaps the one guy who might be able to break Seattle.  He has displayed the tactical ability to change his game to match the opponent, and depending on how the previous games go, the offense could be really humming.  But if Mike McCarthy and Rodgers can’t succeed one week prior, what will Belichick and Brady do?

I am a member of a school that believes Denver plays much better last year if they don’t lose the opening snap.  I still think they lose, and Seattle has shown the ability in recent weeks to roll through their opponents behind the defense and the running game.  Faith in Bill can only go so far…no one has been able to out-execute the Seahawks defense in the last two months.  Seahawks 31-21

Thoughts on the Past Two Weeks

It’s been a very busy couple of weeks, for several reasons, and as a result I’ve missed a few sports topics that I wanted to post about.  Some thoughts on these topics are below:

Gruden, RGIII, and Snyder

The signs of organizational disarray are obvious, and one such signal is the moving scapegoat.  I refer to the practice of finding a different scapegoat each week.  For the Skins this year, everyone seems to have been that guy at one time or another.  Griffin, Cousins, Gruden, and Allen have all had their spots in the limelight.  Eventually, though, prevailing wisdom wants a bigger fish to fry, so they look at the owner.  If you haven’t read Bill Simmons’ piece on Dan Snyder, please do so.  His points are all valid, and he has a fairly good sense of how the typical Skins fan feels.  Snyder is a problem, has been a problem, and will continue to create issues for this team as long as he owns them.

One such potential problem would be firing Jay Gruden after this year.  A second straight 8-game losing streak to finish a season is not a favorable outcome.  His work with the quarterbacks, an alleged strength prior to the year, has not been up to snuff either.  And now it appears his relationship with Griffin is so bad that the town won’t hold them both next season.  And Snyder may side with his quarterback.

Firing Gruden, however, will do absolutely zilch to help this team.  Sure the quarterbacks have been bad, but isn’t it possible that Griffin et. al. are just having difficulty transitioning?  Griffin has played a grand total of seven games under Jay Gruden.  The argument for keeping Griffin hinges on the fact that he will get better, and it is more likely that he will improve under a system he’s familiar with now (Gruden’s) rather than some other coach.

It seems to me that Griffin defenders want to focus on the pitiful amount of games he’s played this year as a sign that he may still be the answer…we just don’t know yet.  Personally, I think Griffin is not the answer.  But it’s clear also that the “either Gruden or Griffin has to go” mentality is really a false choice if you want to keep Griffin.  If you do, introducing him to a whole new offense has significant risks, and the team is close to the point where it must decide whether to keep Griffin long term.  It makes more sense to do so after seeing him with two seasons in an offensive scheme, rather than a snap judgment after one.

This also doesn’t account for the terrible defense that has done neither gentleman any favors, nor for the sheer idiocy of firing a coach after one year in favor of a quarterback who hasn’t performed since Mitt Romney ran for president.  (Note: If Gruden does get fired, how long before we accept the Griffin might be a coach-killer?)

In the end, the Skins should keep Gruden.  That doesn’t require they keep Griffin as well, but if they can somehow keep both of them, it will benefit everyone more than firing the coach and keeping RGIII.

College Football Playoff

I will reiterate my previously posted point that the playoff was always going be something wonderful, no matter what.  It was also going to create pandemonium and hurt feelings.

In the end, I think Ohio State likely loses to either Baylor and TCU on a neutral field 7 of 10 times.  But, I think they certainly were deserving of their place, and the fans of the Frogs and Bears should ask the Big 12 to find two more teams right now.  Ten team leagues are prevented by NCAA rules from having a conference championship game, and the 59-0 drubbing the Buckeyes put on Wisconsin in the conference championship put them over the top.  While I would not agree they are therefore better than the Horned Frogs or Bears, I think Ohio State was a deserving entrant.

Brief aside: I found this whole thing somewhat interesting, mainly because the top three Big 12 teams this year were not traditional powerhouses.  By way of a hypothetical, do you think Texas or Oklahoma would have been kept out of the playoff if they had Baylor or TCU’s resume?  Impossible to know, obviously, but I can’t imagine someone didn’t think subconsciously “wow, an Ohio State-Alabama matchup would be SICK!  And who would watch ‘Bama-Baylor?”  I don’t mean to damn the process, but human bias is now part of the equation.  I wonder if the traditional programs may get a boost as a result.

NHL Mumps

This is a bizarre story, but the NHL has a mumps problem.  Mumps is a virus that causes severe swelling of the salivary glands and, in extreme cases, can cause sterility problems for men.  Twenty NHLers have been diagnosed this year, with the most important happening on Monday when Sidney Crosby announced he had mumps.  The last time he had an injury (a concussion that was labeled “mild” and led to a yearlong break from hockey) the NHL quickly adopted new protocols to prevent and monitor concussion-like symptoms.  I would expect something similar will happen, and it likely already has.

Crosby’s case, however, has exposed issues with how certain NHL teams respond to this.  He was held out of some morning skates last week due to “flu-like symptoms”, but then played the games, despite looking like this.  While I sympathize that teams may not know enough about mumps or how to stop it, guys with symptoms should definitely not be playing games.  They start sharing water bottles on the bench, and all of a sudden that stuff is spreading.  That Crosby went out there and played despite this not being a new phenomenon across the league is utterly absurd.  Here’s hoping no one else on the Penguins catches it.

Bad Move Pettine

Much of the next bit is totally 20/20 hindsight, but Johnny Manziel was a mashup of Ryan Leaf and Freddie Kruger in his first start last week.  It is infuriating that I can’t say I foresaw this, since I didn’t post about it before the start, but I was so unsurprised by how bad he was.  Mainly because if there’s one guy out there who doesn’t fit the traditional (and time-tested) mold of an NFL QB, it’s Manziel.  He moves all over the place and loves throwing into tight coverages, and now he doesn’t have the towering Mike Evans to help him out.  It’s a bad move by the Browns, and isn’t going to work out well for them.

A-Rod

The gift that keeps on giving for sports nuts is A-Rod.  Even if baseball isn’t your thing, he might be the most reviled athlete in the U.S. these days.  He is back in the news, as the media reports he will try to be the full-time third baseman again.  An inconvenient truth is that the Yanks signed Chase Headley for four years last week, meaning A-Rod will have competition.  And Brian Cashman, the GM, says he expects Rodriguez to be a full-time designated hitter.

Personally, I’d like to take an under/over bet on how many pounds he will gain as a result of sitting on the bench so much.

The Beauty of the CFP

Last night, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their updated rankings going into conference championship week.  And it looks a little funky.  The only undefeated Power 5 team (Florida State) is fourth, while TCU is third, not only ahead of the Seminoles but a whopping three spaces ahead of Baylor, an in-state rival that beat the Horned Frogs.  Throw in the one-loss Ohio State Buckeyes (seemingly doomed to a purgatory equal parts QB injuries and anti-Big Ten bias) in fifth, and a muddy picture emerges.

One thing, however, is clear: this is the best way to figure it all out.

The true merits of the four team playoff structure is the chance of undefeated teams being left out at the top is essentially nil.  Remember Auburn in 2004?  A 13-0 team forever wondering what might have been.  Thankfully, they’d be part of a playoff.  While the BCS made things simpler in deciding two teams, it relied on an unstable mixture of journalists, coaches, and computers.  While apparently an appropriate basis, the tripartite plan had large problems.  As in all sports, computers are never able to fully predict results, particularly in the “Any Given Saturday” atmosphere that seems to dominate college football now.  Add to this the coaches’ poll, a relic of bygone days, which allowed coaches who hadn’t seen every team play to rank the best programs (despite acknowledging the impossibility of this task).  Throw in the moral temptation for a coach to overrate their team in the poll or defer to conference foes, and the coaches’ poll became a joke.  The journalists eventually wanted out, so they were replaced by the Harris poll, a listing put together by a market research firm.

The entire paragraph above can be summed up as utter silliness.  I’ve written here before about the problems with a Selection Committee, especially one that includes non-football people, but the current system is infinitely superior to the past attempts at rankings, including the BCS and the straight reliance on polls that the sport used for so many years.

Some would favor expansion of the playoff to eight teams.  I sense this idea may have its biggest constituency in Big Ten land (and understandably so), but an expansion to eight teams in almost any football season will result in the inclusion of two-loss teams.  It might make for fun television, but the one-loss crowd presents a natural dividing line between top teams and those who don’t belong.  This isn’t to say the eye test might still be used to determine the top 8, and thus some two-loss teams in tough conferences might have a legitimate chance to be in, but such a discussion will cheapen the regular season.  If there’s one nice thing the BCS had, it required teams to win every game to prove they belonged.  The current playoff doesn’t do that as strictly given the increased amount of slots, and allows the appropriate amount of wiggle room, but winning is what needs to be valued above all else. 

When wins are equal, it’s worthwhile and correct to look at the nature of losses.  Makes sense that the best teams will beat teams they should beat and at least be competitive against teams they shouldn’t.  The true beauty of the rankings released this week?  None of the top four teams has an ugly loss.  That regrettably can’t be said for Ohio State (losing at home to a now 6-6 Virginia Tech team) or Baylor (a 41-27 loss to an unranked West Virginia team).  In that sense, I think the Committee has done an admirable job making sure the teams that have no such losses are in, and they’ve ranked them appropriately.     

The College Football Playoff is a beautiful thing.  No beauty is perfect, and the system may need some tinkering at some point.  But the playoff has achieved a remarkable success: it’s fairer and more fun.  While any system based on personal judgments (like the Selection committee) will be accused of overwhelming bias, we no longer need to dig into the computer models to find the target of our anger.  Not to mention, these people have their one job when it comes to the rankings, so it seems foolish to say they aren’t prepared for the choices they are making.  And, what’s best is that more teams now have access, and even more want to be in.  It’s a sign of health that champions are determined this way, and we should keep it the way it is until events force reform.