No Quarterbacks in DC

Today, media sources reported that the Redskins will bench Robert Griffin III for Sunday’s game against the Colts, in favor of Colt McCoy.

This has started quite the buzz around DC, most especially surrounding what this will mean going forward for the team.  Under the terms of Griffin’s contract, he will be a free agent after the 2015 season if the Redskins decide not to pick up an option for the 2016 season.

I was once a big Griffin supporter, advocating for him over inserting Kirk Cousins.  Griffin has come in this year and been truly awful.  I could further elaborate on all his football sins, but many of you are already aware of them.  His yards-per-completion has fallen each year, and he has thrown two touchdowns in five starts.  His 173.8 yards-per-game is befitting a game manager (and a pedestrian one at that), not a guy who was picked second overall after exchanging three years of first round picks.

Which brings us to Colt McCoy.  The most spoken phrase this week has been “he won two games!  You gotta give him a shot.”

Granted, I suppose you do.  But let’s not kid ourselves, Colt McCoy is not the long-term answer.  His next few starts will tell us something about his ability, and maybe he will flourish, but the numbers on McCoy are not promising.  He’s a career 7-15 as a starter, and has thrown only one more touchdown than interceptions.  During his two years as a Cleveland starter, he averaged a QBR of around 42.  He was replaced by Brandon Weeden, who has since been replaced.

Of course, Cleveland has not exactly been the model of organizational consistency, and plenty of guys would have likely failed in McCoy’s situation.  That is a fair point, and one that should not be lost in this discussion.  But, the temptation to think he will be a more consistent winner than Griffin is nothing more than overwrought expectations.

We have seen Griffin win a division.  He’s done it, albeit under a different system, but it’s happened.  McCoy has no such pedigree, and while backups every once in a while turn into Tom Brady, Trent Dilfer, or Kurt Warner, very few guys become viable starters after being with three teams in as many years.  Griffin certainly deserved a benching, and his status as a bust will be cemented shortly.  But Colt McCoy, given his past performance, is not likely to be anything special.  The belief in Colt should be short-term, not only due to his numbers, but also because the Redskins have proven beyond doubt that they find most ways to muck up even the most promising situations.

To account for all this, it appears Washington has a number two overall pick that can’t make the necessary adjustments to the pro level and a quarterback who had better numbers only than Tarvaris Jackson and Curtis Painter (to name two) in the two years he started full-time.  This is all on top of Cousins, who has been inactive.

In short, the Redskins have no quarterbacks.

NHL Thanksgiving Rehash

Thanksgiving is typically a magic date on the NHL calendar.  By now, about a quarter of the season has elapsed, teams have shaken off the rust, and identities are decently formed going into the rest of the season.  With that, it’s time to reassess some of the landscape, and there are a few things of note going into “American Thanksgiving.”

You’ll see them in June

Tampa Bay Lightning (14-6-2; 30 points)

Losing defenseman Victor Hedman looked like it might be an issue for this team earlier in the season, but it doesn’t appear to be a problem thus far.  Steven Stamkos is second in goals, while Tyler Johnson has started a career year so it would seem. The top-six forwards have all contributed, and the Lightning hold the third-highest goal differential in the league.  The defense might not be otherworldly without Hedman, but with the offense going so great, who cares?  Expect this team to be in the second round of the playoffs, at least.

Pittsburgh Penguins (13-4-2; 28 points)

Chugga chug chug.  The Penguins train continues regular season dominance.  The stats for this team are good across the board: first in goals-per-game, sixth in goals-against-per-game, tops in the power play and top-5 in penalty killing.  Unsurprisingly, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are near the top of the points race.  One thing to note: with Pascal Dupuis going down due to blood clots, Pittsburgh will need to replace him on their special teams units.  That might dent the top-six production, but I wouldn’t expect much to change until the playoffs.

Anaheim Ducks (13-4-5; 31 points)

After rattling off seven straight wins early in the season, the Ducks have gone through dry spells since then.  But, with unbelievable blue-line contributions from Sami Vatanen (5 goals, 13 assists), the Ducks have been able to overcome some goalie woes.  John Gibson, the presumed future goalie, went down early with an injury, leaving Fredrik Andersen and Jason LaBarbera to fill in.  Once Gibson comes back, this team will look better.

St. Louis Blues (14-6-1; 29 points)

The Blues are a serious Western Conference contender.  They are third in goals-against-per-game and have the third-best power play unit.  Their younger guys, such as Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Lehtera make the Blues quite likely the deepest team in the West.  Add in Brian Elliott’s fourth-best save percentage, and the Blues seem to be well set for the season going forward.

Chicago Blackhawks (12-8-1; 25 points)

They don’t have as many points compared to the teams mentioned above, but Chicago is one of the top teams in the league this year.  Seventh in goals-per-game, third in goals-against-avergae, and tops in the penalty kill mean Chicago has all the makings of a top team.  Their play of late bears this out, as they have won six of their last eight.  According to the advanced stats, Chicago is the best team in the league regarding possession, and have the highest percentage of offensive zone faceoffs in the league (39.2%).  The Hawks are really good and if they maintain this, they will be right there at the end.

They’ll Be There, but Will They Be Good?

Montreal Canadiens (16-6-1; 33 points)

The Canadiens are helped right now after winning 8 of their last 10 games, but the numbers seem to dictate that they will taper off going forward.  Montreal is only 21^st in goals per game and 26^th in power play production.  In short, you have to wonder if they have enough offense to keep this up.  It helps having Carey Price in net, and the team is humming as of late, but those two losses in their last ten have been blowouts to Pittsburgh and the Rangers.  The Canadiens may yet have a ways to go.

New York Islanders (14-6; 28 points)

Third in the league as far as goals-per-game, the Islanders are a surprise being this high in the standings.  A large part of their success can be explained on the road, where their 8 wins are tied for most in the entire league.  The addition of Johnny Boychuk has worked out quite well, as his almost 22 minutes of ice time and +7 rating point quite clearly to his contribution in improving this team.  John Tavares and Brock Nelson have also started hot, and recently the Islanders swept a home-and-away with the Pens.  That said, the combined 90.91 save percentage for this team is 23^rd in the league, so even with advanced stats in their favor (top-five in possession numbers), the Isles may need better long-term goaltending in case the offense suddenly dries up.

Boston Bruins (13-9; 26 points)

The physically imposing Bruins teams we’ve expected largely hasn’t been present this year, primarily due to losing Zdeno Chara earlier in the season.  Unfortunately, the Bruins have lost further starters to injury, like David Krejci and Adam McQuaid.  But, the team has held on rather well, sitting 11^th in goals-against-per-game.  Tuukka Rask also continues to be an elite goalie, so once he has NHLers and not AHLers on his defense, the team will be better.  The Bruins would be well-advised, however, to focus on their chief competition in the Atlantic.  Thus far, Boston has lost all three meetings with Montreal, and they haven’t been very close.

Vancouver Canucks (14-6-1; 29 points)

A year after drama in British Columbia, the Canucks have rebounded nicely, and are second in the Pacific, no mean feat given some of other teams there.  The Sedin twins appear to have found a kindred spirit in Radim Vrbata, as that line has 58 points combined.  The biggest concern might actually be goalie Ryan Miller, who has not posted elite-level numbers that everyone assumes he will produce each season.  A .904 save percentage isn’t going to do very much for anyone at this point, and it seems his reputation continues to overshadow his actual performance.

Nashville Predators (13-5-2; 28 points)

When boasting the best goalie this year, life gets fun.  Pekka Rinne, after missing most of last season with a hip injury, has a goals-against-average under two and a save percentage of .930.  Any way you slice it, Nashville has benefitted dramatically from his return.  The youngsters are also contributing for them, as Filip Forsberg has emerged this year, with 22 points already.  His unbelievable +20 rating is certainly one of the bigger surprises of this season, but the Preds have been very good.  A big question going forward is what will happen with the special teams units, which are near the bottom in both power play and penalty killing.

Minnesota Wild (12-8-0; 24 points)

Minnesota is a darling of the advanced stats community, as they are near the top in possession numbers and don’t appear (mathematically, at least) to be overachieving.  Zach Parise continues to show how valuable he is to any squad, and Nino Niederreiter has contributed in ways not truly expected before the season.  There’s lots of room, though, for improvement.  Prized offseason acquisition Thomas Vanek has scored one goal in 20 games, and needs to score more.  Also, the Wild have a low save percentage, but Darcy Kuemper seems to be righting the ship.  If there is more done to bolster the offense, even slightly, Minnesota will be in good shape.

Los Angeles Kings (11-6-4; 26 points)

Jekyll and Hyde.  The Kings are 10-2-1 at home (best in the league), and 1-4-3 on the road. That large a disparity is worrisome, but LA has made a habit of slow starts and being unbeatable when it counts.  Still, I don’t love the slow start by some of their stalwarts, such as Kopitar, Justin Williams, and especially Marian Gaborik and Dustin Brown.  Without the gaudy save percentage of .932 that Jonathan Quick currently sports, it’s likely the Kings would be deep in a hole.  If they could win a few road games, things will even out, but the trend now is a touch disturbing.

Advanced Stats Love ‘Em

Washington Capitals (9-8-3; 21 points)

Based on a few key markers, the Caps should be much better.  Their possession numbers are in the top-12, and the Caps have the third highest percentage of their faceoffs in the offensive zone.  They have the second fewest percentage of faceoffs in their own zone, meaning Washington should have a much better record than this.  And the reason they don’t is goaltending.  Braden Holtby hasn’t been good.  His save percentage is a respectable .915, but Holtby has given up a remarkable number of soft goals thus far in the season.  His backup, Justin Peters, has been similarly unhelpful (his save percentage is .882, which is equivalent to running a 9-minute mile at the Olympics).  If there’s an area that must get better, it’s in goal.  Otherwise, advanced stats or not, the Caps will be very low on the playoff totem and might even be outside of it in June.

Advanced Stats Hate ‘Em

Calgary Flames (13-7-2; 28 points)

I’m not sure I can underestimate how much advanced stats says the Flames will not only taper off, but rather leap headlong over a statistical cliff.  They have the highest shooting percentage in the league (over 10% of their shots are going in), meaning they are really lucky – the median is 7.9 percent.  In addition, the Flames have had the fewest percentage of their faceoffs in the offensive zone at 27 percent.  Lastly, their possession numbers (which aren’t easily explained) are bottom-five, with terrible teams like Buffalo Ottawa, and Colorado.

This is almost a repeat of the Avalanche last year, who had a great shooting percentage and somehow defied advanced stats to win their division.  Rabid Dibbles and Bits readers will remember I predicted the Flames to go far in the future, but this year seems too early.

The Alleged Mess

Toronto Maple Leafs (11-8-2; 24 points)

I’ve recently learned just how much the Canadian market focuses on the Leafs.  They are by no means the mess that is being portrayed by much of the Canadian media right now.  They remain very much in the picture, and honestly the change going forward must come in net.  James Reimer has played nine games, and boasts a save percentage below the magic 90 percent.  That’s terrible, and clearly there needs to be something done in net for the Leafs.  Despite goal being a big issue, Toronto right now is not necessarily a playoff team.  Less than 30 percent of their face-offs are in the offensive zone, and their advanced possession numbers indicate a team that does not do well with the puck.  But, at fourth in goals-per-game, maybe all that is irrelevant. 

A Jolly Good Punch-Up

There’s a donnybrook brewing in the Old World, and it pertains to an old sport.  FIFA (the international organizing body for global soccer), has its name splayed over European headlines yet again.

For Americans who know FIFA only as the title of a popular game franchise, the organization has come under increased fire in the past couple of years.  The various accusations against it are centered on corruption, and John Oliver describes many of them well.

At the end of his explanation/rant, Oliver discusses the bidding for the 2022 World Cup, which went to the unbearably hot (and unbearably oppressive) nation of Qatar.  Given the temperatures of 120+ and the draconian conditions placed on migrant workers, this choice was bound to elicit outrage.  It certainly doesn’t take a soccer expert to know that standing feels awful in 120-degree heat, so soccer must be particularly gruesome.  Calls to move the 2022 World Cup to other nations or to winter have gained in volume as a result.  So how did Qatar receive the tournament in the first place?

Last week, FIFA published a summary (note, just a summary) of an investigatory report into the bidding process that resulted in Russia and Qatar receiving the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.  The resulting document cleared the Russian and Qatari delegations of any wrongdoing, while devoting significant time to the transgressions of the Football Association (FA), the governing body for soccer in England.  Among the allegations is the charge that a member of the voting board used the FA to support charity events in Trinidad & Tobago and also asked FA officials to help an acquaintance of his find a job.  The member of the board has since resigned under the cloud of a separate corruption investigation.  But, the final verdict accused the FA of “undermining the bid process.”

The response?  “Such tomfoolery will not be tolerated, and you, FIFA, are a most despicable cad, wot, wot!”

The report has been a burr in the British saddles, and a former FA head declared this weekend that UEFA (the pan-European soccer body…another acronym for an overlong French organization title) should boycott the World Cup as a result.  His comments received further fuel from Michael Garcia, the author of the full report (remember, the offensive document is just a summary).  Garcia said the summary misrepresented the facts and conclusions of the underlying report, and many now would like to see the full report published, including the president of the German Football League and the current head of the FA.

As an American, I remain separated from the personalities and dynamics of FIFA.  But, it is clear that oil pricing mechanisms have more transparency than this organization.  Despite taking large umbrage at activities that wouldn’t bat an eye in almost any powerful capital in the world, the Russian delegation submitted inadequate documentation due to “lost emails” and still remains in FIFA’s favor.  (Sidenote: is anyone else tired, yet grudgingly appreciative, of the “lost email” excuse?  Who knew it had such power!  I bet A-Rod and Lance Armstrong wish they had thought of that one.)  This seems especially difficult to believe given the Russian government’s strongarm tactics with political dissidents and anatomically-named rock bands.  They probably offered the members jobs without even being asked.

Of course, I was nowhere near the negotiations.  But the whole thing stinks, particularly given what is known about FIFA and the governments involved.  After picking two countries known for being different manifestations of Shakespeare’s Iago, and then impugning one of the most robust football associations in the world, FIFA should answer its critics.  The World Cup remains a worthy outlet for sports fans all over the world, but eventually FIFA’s pockmarks will carry over to the tournament if this goes unnoticed.  Vigilance and outrage might be the best way to keep the tournament at its height.

Don’t forget.  Follow on Twiiter at @DbblesnBitsBlog!

Revisiting the Trade

After traveling to Maine, I hoped I might return to a different Redskins landscape.  That was wishful thinking, to say the least, so I found myself waxing nostalgic of times past.  And if there’s one moment that deserves to be revisited, it’s the Portis-Bailey trade, particularly during the week in which Champ Bailey says goodbye to the game.

What makes the trade so memorable is its unique character.  Not only is the NFL notoriously trade-shy, but Pro Bowl caliber players are not normally traded, especially for each other.

At the time, the trade seemed to make some sense.  The Redskins’ leading rusher in the 2003 season was Trung Canidate, with 600 yards on the ground.  Steve Spurrier was out as head coach, meaning a reversion to a new offensive scheme seemed likely.  Portis had just completed two 1500+ yard seasons in Denver, and was named to the Pro Bowl.

Bailey, a top-10 overall pick in 1999, had a contract renegotiation coming after the 2003 season.  And things looked stormy, given his four straight Pro Bowls and amassing 17 interceptions since joining the NFL.  He was due for a large raise.  When Denver popped up as a destination, he jumped at the opportunity, given their 10-6 record the year before and Washington’s habitual ineptitude.

The results of this deal are tough to interpret.  Portis put up 1200 yards or more in four of his first five DC seasons, during which time the Skins made the playoffs twice.  Bailey went to Denver at the peak of his powers, and continued his dominance.  He went to three straight Pro Bowls, and was named an All-Pro during those first three seasons in Denver. 

After Portis’ first five seasons, his production dropped dramatically, primarily due to injury.  He would be gone from the team in 2010, and never played another NFL game.  Bailey, on the other hand, played at a high level until the 2012 playoffs, where he was exposed particularly during the game against the Broncos.  He played only five games last year, was released by Denver, and was unable to make a roster prior to this season.

For a long time, I thought the results of this trade overwhelmingly favored Denver.  Upon further re-evaluation, it seems like this trade still was a better deal for Denver, but the Skins gained a key asset for their team.  Realistically, NFL trades are tough to forecast, particularly when running backs are involved.  I find it tough to believe that Washington saw Bailey playing at such a high level for so long (Bailey added seven Pro Bowls to his resume while in Denver).  That said, given the gradual disappearance of the workhorse running back, that Portis put up such great numbers in his first five years is remarkable.  It would be tough to blame the trade for the team’s failures during those years, as Portis was undoubtedly exceptional.

But, Denver won this trade.  Bailey was easily one of the elite cornerbacks during his tenure there, and I would bet only one Pro Bowl invite was on reputation rather than performance.  To exacerbate matters, the Washington pass defense became absolutely porous during the Gibbs and Zorn years, partially due to the tragic death of Sean Taylor but mainly due to an obvious lack of talent.  The Broncos had only two sub-.500 years with Bailey in the secondary, and teams quickly learned not to throw his way.  To top it off, Bailey will unquestionably be a Hall of Famer, likely on his first year of eligibility.

I wish I had more time to watch Champ Bailey in DC.  He’s had a great career, and deserves all the accolades.  (Unlike the Redskins, who as I write this are on their way to losing to the one-win Buccaneers).

Follow Dibbles and Bits on Twitter @DbblesnBitsBlog!  Every post will be put out there, and we’ll see how much more I get going there!