Shipping Back to Boston

Yeah, the baseball season is coming to a close soon.  Billy Beane, the A’s GM, said it correctly a few years ago: “my job is to get the team to the playoffs, from there it’s all luck.”  And he’s definitely right.  The Giants, winners in two of the past three years, were not the best team in baseball either of those seasons.  Many may remember when I picked the Tigers to steamroll SF last year, only to eat my words at the end of a quick sweep by the other guys.  Well, I will try to do better this time around, keeping in mind that anything can happen in October.

It appears I will be right about the Indians making the Wild Card game.  They’ve won seven straight against easy competition, but are still only one game clear of Texas.  Either way, I’m operating under the assumption they get in.  From there, the AL presents an interesting case.  I bet Boston cruises against the Rays-Indians winner (I’m pulling for Cleveland) and I’ll pick the Tigers over the A’s.  It’s not that Oakland doesn’t have momentum…they’ve been the hottest team in baseball over the past month.  But, the starting pitching for Detroit has been excellent this year.  Especially if Cabrera is healthy, Detroit should win, setting up a fun ALCS.

On the NL side, as much as the Pirates continue to be a great story, they won’t last one game after playing .500 for the past month.  Cincinnati also doesn’t really inspire much confidence in me, as I don’t think their starters can match up at all against those of St. Louis, who I bet will reach the top record in the league.  Which sets up a dandy of an NLDS between Atlanta and Los Angeles.  This one should be a wild ride.  While the Dodgers are a trendy pick, Atlanta brings an excellent bullpen with a 2.46 bullpen ERA.  Still, we are in 5-game series land so I pick the Dodgers to eke out a win against a Brave team that could easily win a 7-game series.

For the ALCS, it’s tough to not take Boston.  They bring three quality starters who have performed well in the postseason, unlike much of Detroit’s pitching staff (Verlander, for example, has a 3.46 ERA in the postseason).  Boston is 21-9 over the past 30 games, an absolutely torrid pace.  In the NL, you have to assume Clayton Kershaw will get at least two starts.  He’s given up 13 earned runs in his last ten starts, so there are two likely wins right there.  Admittedly, St. Louis has been sneaky good the past few years, and one should pick against them at your peril.  But the pitching staffs just after Kershaw match up evenly and will likely be a push.  Still, the Cards average almost a run more than LA, and I’m betting they win in seven games.

Which brings us to a repeat of the 2004 World Series: Boston and St. Louis.  Purely on the face of it, Boston brings a more talented lineup that averaged over five runs a game this season.  Postseason experience basically washes out here, and I’d say the pitching does too.  Lester, Buchholtz, and Peavy bring veteran savvy, even before you throw Ryan Dempster into the mix.  But, the Cards would have a chance.  Game 1 would feature Adam Wainwright (18-9, 3.01 ERA) who has pitched very well for St. Louis this year and has a ring already.  The X-factor will likely be 22-year-old Shelby Miller (15-9, 3.06 ERA), who has no such experience but has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals behind Wainwright.  This easily would be a seven game series, in which case I defer to home field advantage.  Boston has gone 53-28 in Fenway this season and, in a weak AL, I bet they make their way to the title one year after a horrific soap opera season.

Bit #1: Week 3 Power Rankings – NFL

It was a very strange Week 3, with last year’s darlings by and large falling very short.  The top two aren’t going to change, but after that it gets a little crazy this week.

1.      Broncos (3-0)

Another big night by Denver and I’m starting to wonder if this team can’t go 16-0 this season.  Peyton continues to play very well and setting records for the first three games.

 

2.      Seahawks (3-0)

Same story here.  Seattle beat Jacksonville in a game where Russell Wilson sat from the middle of the third quarter onwards.  After worrying about where Seattle stood in the NFC West, I’m a believer.

 

3.      Chicago (3-0)

This is something of a weird rating, but Chicago’s defense has scored three touchdowns already and can make the field incredibly short.  Especially on a night when Jay Cutler wasn’t at his best, the defense changed the game and stopped Pittsburgh cold when it appeared momentum might be shifting.  Given the Sunday night setting, this classifies as a good win.  Offense needs to improve somewhat, however.

 

4.      Saints (3-0)

The Cardinals aren’t great but for a defense that last year hit historically bad numbers to hold each opponent below 17 points thus far, New Orleans deserves to be discussed more.  In a surprising game of unbeatens, New Orleans has Miami this week.  If you want to beat this team, stop Jimmy Graham.

 

5.      Patriots (3-0)

Still don’t like them, but the rookie wide receivers bounced back well.  If Amendola and Gronk return soon, Belichick will likely try to transition back to the no-huddle offense.  That said, the inefficiency of Stevan Ridley means the offense still searches for balance.

 

6.      Chiefs (3-0)

I think I’m on board with this team.  Kansas City brings an infinitely improved offense to 2013 and with such a talented defense there’s no reason to think KC will falter, especially if Jamaal Charles continues his current production.

 

7.      Bengals (2-1)

Great win for them in Cincy, albeit a lucky one.  Andy Dalton ranks top ten in Total QBR and has a 67% completion rate.  If Bernard and Green-Ellis keep defenses fearing the run, Dalton might have a great chance at some big numbers.

 

8.      Packers (1-2)

I realize, they are ranked over an undefeated team.  Well, as much as you have to like Miami’s win over Atlanta, the Pack win the game if Jonathan Franklin converts on fourth-and-1.  Even if he doesn’t fumble, they might win.  I expect the bye week to help Green Bay refocus and get their cornerbacks fully healthy.  Betting against Aaron Rodgers never works out well.

 

9.      Dolphins (3-0)

I’m not above putting a lucky 3-0 team this far down the list.  Look, Miami has rallied behind Ryan Tannehill, winning a huge game against the Falcons this past weekend.  I am not entirely sure their success is sustainable.  The offensive line has allowed 14 sacks and boasts the 28^th ranked running attack in the league.  Throw in a brutal schedule, and Miami will likely regress.  If Cameron Wake is hurt with his MCL sprain, it will be a guaranteed regression.

 

10.  Colts (2-1)

Who saw this coming?  I picked the Colts to finish out of the playoffs this year, but their tough win on the West Coast (it was closer to a rout) certainly boosts my impression of this team.  They can bring it now with the run game, but Andrew Luck for all the hype hasn’t done a whole lot this year.  Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, and EJ Manuel have thrown more balls than Luck thus far.  You fantasy nuts are probably not seeing this due to his two rushing touchdowns, but Luck may be called upon to win a game for his team.

 

Bit #2: One wave of young QBs on their way out

Poof!  Just like that, many of the guy we thought would lead the NFL in the next decade are sitting their butts down.  The Browns will continue to start Brian Hoyer, a journeyman, in place of Brandon Weeden.  It’s true that Weeden has a thumb injury, but reports out of Cleveland are that a full-on battle is underway for that job. 

I admit, when I started writing this, I expected Blaine Gabbert to be permanently benched, but he will be coming back this weekend to the joy of those who hate football.  Chad Henne will never be The Guy, but does anyone really expect Gabbert to do anything productive for the next little while in the NFL?  He’s on borrowed time, and who knows…maybe Denard Robinson will start soon (Sidenote: how was Gabbert picked in the top ten?  His last year at Mizzou showed 16 TDs, 9 INTs, and 6.7 yards per attempt.  That offense must have been predicated wholly on the bubble screen, because a guy with 3175 yards should have more than 16 scores.  Really bad pick).

But there was always hope for Josh Freeman, who presented an absolutely fantastic 2010 campaign.  He threw 25 touchdowns and only six picks, and frankly looked to be pretty good.  After the expected sophomore slump, he started 2012 on a tear, throwing for 1975 yards-16 TDs-3 INT over the course of seven games.  Since then?  He’s barely qualified to start at Bowling Green.  Over the past eight games, Freeman has completed less than half his passes and found the end zone eight times.  With 13 INTs over that period, you know Freeman deserved to be benched.  Well, the Bucs finally did the dirty deed, sitting Josh down for Mike Glennon, the rookie out of NC State.  At this point, our hope is on the Kaepernick/Wilson/RGIII/Luck grouping of young quarterbacks, because based on Thursday’s game Sam Bradford isn’t hanging around much longer either.

Bit #3: Strange NBA Signing

 The Sacramento Kings have, to my knowledge, never graced Dibbles and Bits.  And for good reason…they haven’t really done much of anything in recent years.  But, on Thursday, they announced that the team agreed to an extension with forward Demarcus Cousins through 2018.  The terms of the deal: four years, over $60 million.

That’s really big money for this guy.  Yes, Cousins averaged 17.1 points and 9.9 rebounds last year, but his consistent flare-ups with the coaching staff cemented the image of Sacramento as a dysfunctional organization.  New ownership has come in to reset that reputation, but I’m not sure a guy who was suspended by the team last year deserves to be brought back as a cornerstone of your franchise going forward.  The hope is that Cousins will accept the second chance and work hard to justify the team’s investment.  I am decently skeptical of this, as players with so much volatility can create cancers in the clubhouse. 

So Cleveland...or is it?

About a year ago, I reached the halfway point of a blog post about Cleveland’s tempestuous ride in sports.  Every major team has either blown a championship (Browns, Indians) or had a rash of bad luck (Cavs).  If you were to glance at the Cleveland newspapers on Thursday morning, those same tellings of doom arrange themselves prominently.  The Browns traded running back Trent Richardson, the #3 pick from two drafts ago, to the Colts for a first round pick.  What follows for me is an interesting query into an NFL franchise desperate for any positive news.

From the Browns perspective, this reeks of old ways.  Very few, including myself, can remember when Bill Belichick dropped popular quarterback Bernie Kosar from the team.  That move has been heralded as being similar to the Richardson trade in its effect on the team: wholly negative.  That may or may not be the case, however.  I remain somewhat unconvinced that this is a bad move for the Browns.  There is no doubt, however, that the ruling powers in Cleveland do not think Richardson was worth a top five pick.  The organization is throwing in the towel on him, and that’s an unavoidable conclusion.  And, from a numbers perspective, there’s a case to be made.  He’s averages a little over three yards a carry, hardly numbers worthy of the “elite” label he received directly out of college.  But, for all that, we should remember he ran behind a shoddy offensive line (excepting Joe Thomas) and had no passing game against which to balance a running game.  He scored 11 touchdowns last year which looks good on a stat line but, as fantasy players know, are supremely impossible to predict and (for what my vote is worth) do very little to distinguish the great players from the ordinary.

That said, Richardson was the best offensive asset in Cleveland.  Joe Thomas might be a close second (six-time Pro Bowler who gets no credit).  That the team wants to trade him away strikes me as a misguided effort by the current regime to get some credit if they can turn this ship around.  Heaven forbid they do so with Mike Holmgren’s players!  Regrettably for Cleveland fans, this season will be lost.  On the accounting side, the Browns gave up the 3^rd overall pick (and the three late round picks the Browns traded just to draft him) for a first round pick that will likely be somewhere in the 20s.  That’s an unbalanced trade, based on the numbers.

But, I’m not jumping into bed with the Colts on this either.  Sure, losing Vick Ballard hurts and not having a potent running game hurt them last year, but workhorse backs are no longer a feature of the NFL.  At best, they are complimentary parts in the machine.  Prior to Ray Rice last year, the best running back to last win a Super Bowl was Jerome Bettis…who’s been retired for quite a while now.  Seriously, good running backs do not carry teams to championships anymore.  The guy who was slated to start in Indy, Ahmad Bradshaw, has won two of them.  It certainly helps to have Andrew Luck as a dynamic passing threat that could, at any point, bust the game wide open and provide cover for the ground game.  Still, I remain unconvinced that Richardson, with his somewhat underwhelming numbers (compared to his draft pick) and potential injury concerns, is worth a first round pick.  I am also sure, however, that many said the same thing when Dallas traded Herschel Walker in the late 80s, only to eat their words after three Super Bowls.

So, on paper, there are some good and bad things about the trade.  Cleveland grabbed a first round pick for a rapidly dying type of player, but also acknowledged they’re rebuilding by doing so and gave up in Week 3.  For the Colts, they lost a draft pick in what could be a very deep draft for a guy that, for all his natural gifts, might not have the full stuff.  It’s a great gamble trade, one more befitting of the NBA, where midseason rebuildings are indicated every year via trades.  In football, you gotta wait until the draft to see this type of thing normally.

Above all else, Cleveland now knows it needs a quarterback in this year’s draft.  Any presumption to the contrary would be a huge mistake.  Teddy Bridgewater and Tajh Boyd look like the top of the pile right now, but I’m waiting until the Browns-Jags game later this year when the stakes are the future for both teams.

As a final note, Cleveland has thus far given me no confidence in its abilities.  The Browns have been stockpiling draft picks for what seems like three years now, and they have absolutely nothing to show for it.  When it all comes down to it, despite the Colts giving up their first round pick, I am projecting the Browns to lose this trade.  If their draft this year turns out to be wonderful, it might be a different story.  But, to give up their best asset in Week 3 was a mistake.

Bit #1: Mayweather-Canelo Fight a Dud

I ordered a boxing match on pay-per-view for the first time last Saturday night.  What had been touted as the best challenge to Floyd Mayweather in years turned out to be anything but.  It certainly wasn’t worth the $20 I spent, primarily because Mayweather is too good.

Floyd’s unique style was on full display.  He danced around Canelo and unleashed jabs consistently.  The mere thought that he might not have won this fight was never in doubt, mainly because Floyd landed tons of punches.  Many were on the lighter end, but by the end he connected on over half of punches thrown.  A frustrating thing about this fight for me was the lack of in-close encounters.  Middleweights are quicker and less likely to sit there and take punishment.  Back in the days when heavyweights ruled the sport, we saw more hair-raising blows and, truthfully, better fights.  It’s not that Canelo and Floyd aren’t great athletes, but the flitting around the ring did nothing to induce me to enjoy the fight.  I watch to see guys punch each other, not gingerly move around one another.

Bit #2: NCAA Targeting Rule and Review a Farce

Typically, the NCAA has not received as much attention for concussions as the NFL.  There aren’t former players lining up to sue colleges for head injuries.  If there is such a queue somewhere, they don’t make nearly the same noise as the pro players.  As such, I’ve never noticed the “targeting the head” penalty in a college game before last Saturday.

In that game, Alabama’s Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (great name if you’re a Fox News anchor) made a move towards a pass from Johnny Manziel to receiver Darel Walker.  Clinton-Dix clearly went for the ball, stretching out his hands but connecting with Walker’s upper body.

The refs called a targeting penalty, despite the simultaneous arrivals of both Clinton-Dix and the football.  In the NCAA, that means an automatic ejection.  At the early stage of the game, that might have been disastrous and I guarantee we are discussing it Monday if Bama loses.  The saving grace, however, is that targeting penalties can be reviewed.  Clinton-Dix stayed in the game after review, but the process still reeked.  While the flag for “targeting” was rescinded, Alabama still lost 15 yards due to some kind of penalty.  In essence, though the booth said it wasn’t a penalty, the play was treated like one.

I understand these things happen too quickly for refs to always be right.  I also understand that the review process could become too universal and no one wants to review penalties all game.  But, if you’re going to review a play for targeting, the common sense rule would be to also see if the play resulted in a penalty at all.  How long before the yardage affects the outcome of a game somewhere along the line?

Bit #3: NHL Rule Change Also Ridiculous

Big point: the NHL begins in 11 days.  The smaller point is a recent rule change certainly will have some interesting effects this season.  The NHL announced over the offseason that refs would enforce uniform rules more stringently.  If you’re very familiar with the NFL’s absurd practice of requiring white socks, then you know this move will bring some truly outrageous headlines.  Earlier this week, a player got penalized for tucking his jersey into his pads.  I’m absolutely clueless as to what this rule hopes to achieve, but the NHL pleads it has something to do with upper body safety.

Forgive me if I don’t care.  One concern, however, is that adding penalties to the game brings some hazards into play.  While the NHL won’t stoop to fining players, like the NFL, I’m worried that a uniform penalty will draw the attention of refs away from the fast-paced, somewhat dangerous sport of hockey.  Seems a stupid concern on the face of it, but the mere possibility that a ref might penalize a player’s cravat as opposed to his body-checking is a little worrisome.

Redskins Are Bad, but Take It Easy

I realize I should be better on the uptake, but there are only so many Sundays left before golf season ends.  As such, I had to re-watch the Skins game this past week, and truthfully turned it off when the Pack went up 31-0.  Still, some thoughts for you to chew on.

The defense looked halfway decent in the first half, sacking Rodgers three times.  But, thanks to a genius coaching decision to go for it on 4^th and 3, Green Bay scored the first points and never looked back.  But we need to square with the fact that once the football physically leaves the quarterback’s hands, whether via handoff or pass, Washington has very little ability to stifle an offense.  James Starks, a junkheap player who flashes once every four years, bull rushed us for 132 yards.  You ask me, that’s inexcusable.  In addition, the tackling by the defensive secondary continues to fall short.  On a little hitch play David Amerson barely laid his hand on James Jones going by.  This doesn’t mention Jermichael Finley running over Doughty, Wilson, and Amerson before being tackled by Doughty who recovered by ten yards to finally bring him down.  Of course, Bacarri Rambo looks lost, and I loved hearing Troy Aikman claim the Redskins had “addressed their needs in the draft.”  Yeah, right.  The wonderful play of Rambo and Amerson fills me with such confidence.  (I don’t want to discuss Meriweather, but now we know why he can’t stay with a team…he doesn’t read the rulebook).

I should be fair, however…the Packers are a better team than us and we likely had a slim chance of winning this game anyway.  To ask a young group of cornerbacks to cover a Super Bowl caliber receiving corps in Week 2 is a daunting task.  On that same note, I realize RGIII hasn’t been very good.  His inability to complete passes is a problem, and he appeared to be fiddling with his footwork on Sunday.  While this creates passing game issues, it also means the running game can’t get going.  Alfred Morris quietly amassed 107 yards on 13 carries, but only received five second half looks.  When you need to play from 31 points down, that tends to happen in the running game.

Back to RGIII…he’s rusty.  That’s all this is.  We watched Peyton Manning flutter a few passes against the Falcons last year, and his season turned out pretty well.  I think RGIII needs more time in the pocket.  We played what will likely be top 5 offenses our first two weeks, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the defense narrows the gaps a little bit.  Throw in the middling NFC East, and the season remains very much in play.  After the hugely successful 2012, we in DC expect the Skins to all of a sudden turn themselves into perennial contenders, despite an abhorrent secondary and a roster that, in certain areas, just isn’t very good.  I cannot stress enough the importance of that statement.  This is Year 2 of RGIII, and already we want to bench him in favor of a guy who’s thrown 58 passes in the NFL!?  Three of those, I should add, were interceptions.  Cousins is a good backup of course, but he provides very little compared to RGIII.  He’s less accurate and makes poor decisions.

Week 3 is against the Lions.  The backs, Bush and Bell, are too much in the Lesean McCoy mode for my liking, and we can expect them to play havoc with the defense, as will Calvin Johnson.  But, I think this is the week where the running game puts it together and we keep Detroit’s D-Line on their heels.

Bit #1: Week 2 Power Rankings

I will remind everyone that for Power Rankings, style points matter a ton.  Especially with so many 2-0 teams, it’s necessary.

1.       Broncos (2-0)

+40 point differential is best in the NFL and the two wins have been convincing against respectable clubs.  But, they are fighting a charge from…

 

2.       Seahawks (2-0)

Any concern about a lackluster performance against Carolina in Week 1 dissipated on Monday night.  Beating the defending NFC Champion in such a dominant fashion was very impressive.  Marshawn Lynch hit Beast Mode and, what’s more important, if the NFC comes through Seattle there is no doubt the ‘Hawks are making the big game.  That was one loud stadium.

 

3.       Packers (1-1)

Coming back to Lambeau certainly helped out Green Bay in a game that ended by 10:00 in the second quarter.  Losing Lacy will affect the running game, but the receiving corps looks much-improved from the Stonehands Corps of last year.  Big win at home over a lousy team will be a solid foundation for the coming weeks, but don’t expect the defense to hold teams under 25 points.

 

4.       49ers (1-1)

Yeah, San Fran beat the Packers in a big way, but the showing against Seattle brings up plenty of questions.  The biggest one has to be the running game, where Frank Gore has 60 yards on 30 carries through two weeks.  In the first half of last season, he averaged 5.5 yards a carry.  In addition, the Niners experience tons of injuries on defense Sunday night, and the length of their injury report rivals a Kardashian receipt.  Still lots there, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a bit of a dip early on.

 

5.       Texans (2-0)

Another escape against an inferior team has me worried.  Numbers 5-8 on this list might as well be interchangeable.  Houston may have lost Andre Johnson for the year but is not gonna do anything if Randy Bullock can’t make a field goal (1-for-5 on the year).  Ben Tate provided great depth on Sunday, but Houston needs to start proving it can beat superior teams.

 

6.       Bears (2-0)

Chicago must play better, but you have to like Jay Cutler getting it done in the clutch.  Throw in a big day for Matt Forte and I’d say the Bears escaped in Week 2 against a team that, on paper, they should beat.  Should be 3-0 after Monday night against Pittsburgh, but after the last two games nothing is certain.

 

7.       Patriots (2-0)

You know my thoughts…this is a soft 2-0.  Tamp Bay next week has an apparently legit defense and a miserable offense, so the Pats might sneak a win out again.

 

8.       Saints (2-0)

After being bailed out by Rob Ryan’s defense (pick your dropped glass off the floor now, please), the Saints could certainly use some Drew Brees help.  The alleged return to the running game so touted by Sean Payton doesn’t appear to have worked out.  Jimmy Graham has been a huge asset yet again, but this team isn’t really sticking up to the league’s power players.

 

9.       Falcons (1-1)

The ability of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones was, yet again, on display this past week.  The main concern now will be injuries on defense, as Kroy Biermann, Asante Samuel, and Sean Witherspoon all went down.  Biermann is out for the year.  Steven Jackson also has some injury concerns, so the Falcons have some open questions to address.

 

10.   Bengals (2-0)

Don’t look now, but Giovani Bernard has jets.  In an absurd stat, the offense averages 7.2 yards in plays where Bernard touches the ball.  Throw in a potentially shutdown defensive line, and Andy Dalton may not need to do very much this year.

No Title Needed, just Bits

I didn’t have anything to write about this week, so here we go on some Bits

Bits #1: Re-thinking the Patriots in the AFC Championship

Bill Belichick is a genius.

Anyone else watch the slug and snooze last night?  The Patriots have now beaten the Bills and Jets, two teams with rookie quarterbacks, by a combined five points.  The same offense averaged just over 35 points per game last year until running into the Ravens in the AFC Championship.

Bill Belichick is a genius.

And yet, Tom Brady can’t seem to get his offense going.  Danny Amendola, held together by peanut butter, had his first injury of the season this past week.  Stevan Ridley, who scored double-digit touchdowns last year, can’t hold onto the ball (he almost fumbled again at a crucial moment last night), and the best receiver on the field right now is known as a punt returner and former college quarterback.  The big rookie additions at receiver, at least based on last night, dropped the ball often and, even more often, ran incorrect routes.

Bill Belichick is a genius.

We’ve seen Tom Brady thrive with receivers like Reche Caldwell (who somehow gained almost 700 yards and had 5 TDs in that one season with the team).  The hurry-up approach plays to his strengths.  What’s better, the power behind the throne has a system that, allegedly, works very well in all situations.  Remember Matt Cassel leading New England to a 10-6 season (this was before Cassel started auditioning for Kansas City Dogcatcher)?  It’s a plug and chug…no matter what happens we can trust in Saint Bill, for…

Bill Belichick is a genius.

But, for whatever this is worth, I am rescinding my prediction that this team makes the AFC Championship.  Rob Gronkowski’s return will certainly help the Pats, but their dependency on unproven or brittle receivers (Gronk has his share of surgeries) will bite this team.  Tom Brady’s legacy will have to wait another year.  While I watched the game last night, I constantly thought about how much Wes Welker helps in a game like that…sure hands, yards-on-demand, diverting the defense…the list goes on.  And yet, he isn’t there now in what looks to be a galactically stupid personnel decision in New England.  I’m calling it now…this team doesn’t win a playoff game.

Bill Belichick is a genius.

Bit #2: Anyone else tired of Thursday Night Football?

I enjoy coming home on Thursday night and unwinding with football as much as the next guy, but there is a noticeable decline in the quality of the games on Thursday compared to Sunday.  For one, the matchups generally scrape the bottom of the weekly barrel in order to placate the networks in Sunday and Monday primetime.  Last year, only three matchups (Green Bay-Chicago, New Orleans-Atlanta, and a Seattle-San Fran matchup that no one thought would be good) were at all worth watching.  This year, we get Giants-Chicago and New Orleans-Atlanta as the marquee matchups, but otherwise the schedule is pretty terrible, lowlighted by Browns-Bills in a few weeks.  Admittedly, NFL Network does a good job reeling in big teams most weeks, but their competition usually is never up to par.  Remember this hall of horrors last year: KC-San Diego, Indy-Jacksonville, and Miami-Buffalo? 

In the end, I am just complaining for no real reason, as the NFL will never forego the revenues of a mid-week game.  But, seriously, these games leave a lot to be desired every single week.

Bit #3: Put a fork in the O’s

It’s painful to say this, but the Orioles are in all likelihood out of the Wild Card race after losing three out of four to the surging Yankees this week.  With their next bevy of games in Toronto, Boston, and Tampa, the O’s need to absolutely clean up in order to have any chance at catching the Rays, who are currently only 1 game clear of New York.  The Indians also sit between Baltimore and the playoffs, so we have to wonder what the cause of this was.  A team many thought would challenge for the division will likely fall just short of the postseason.  And it comes down to Jim Johnson, their closer.  As of August 15, he’s blown nine saves.  Admittedly, Johnson has more save opportunities than most other closers, but those kinds of collapses can kill a team, especially one that posted such a ridiculous winning percentage in one run games last year.

On the other side, I bet neither Tampa nor the Yankees make it in.  Of all the teams in the mix, Cleveland has the easiest schedule, playing the White Sox, Twins, and Astros.  That said, a four game series with the Royals, 2 ½ games back themselves, will be big.  For the AL East teams involved, they all must play Toronto and Boston.  The Rays will also play both the O’s and Yanks, meaning there’s going to be a fair bit of volatility in the standings.  Even factoring in that the Indians are from Cleveland, I bet they prevail and make the postseason.

Bit #4: A&M won’t win

This is a great sports weekend.  I probably should have led with this game, since it’s been talked about for months, but my whining about Thursday nights takes precedence.  We’ve all heard about Johnny Manziel this summer, a fact I laboriously pointed out last week.  For this week, all attention will be on how he does in a home matchup against Alabama.

When looking at this game, I confess that I didn’t watch either of these teams during their first few games.  For Alabama, the box score tells us that the offense barely got going against Virginia Tech.  Just over 200 yards of offense for the Tide, that needed two special teams touchdowns to win the game.  A&M has yet to play any substantive competition, so it’s anybody’s guess on their success this weekend, but we can draw a few thoughts.  First, Bama brings last year’s national championship roster into College Station.  A lot of these players won big games last year and the year before, so they will likely not be very intimidated by the 12^th Man atmosphere.  That said, the offensive line lost many of its starters to the NFL, meaning running back T.J. Yeldon may have tough going.  For A&M, they still have arguably the best player in college football leading the charge.  Manziel started his Heisman campaign in Tuscaloosa last year and I don’t count on him blowing this game at all.  On the other side of the ball, however, the players that exerted the most pressure on AJ McCarron last year have all left for the NFL.  Throw in a spate of defensive suspensions by Kevin Sumlin for the previous two games, and we have no idea how well this Aggie team will perform defensively.

As such, I give the edge to Bama.  I trust Kirby Smart to learn from the loss last year and any offensive woes won’t stick around for long with this team.  I say Bama 21-17.

Bit #5: SI Piece on Oklahoma St

I’ve been following the weeklong articles from SI that revealed huge malfeasances at Oklahoma State as far as its football program.  We’re talking most of what has regrettably become all-too-familiar.  Cash, drugs, academic misconduct, and racy recruiting visits all permeate the rather surprising allegations.  An even worse part of all this is that former coach Les Miles and current coach Mike Gundy are mentioned as being involved in all these behaviors.  Admittedly, the article does not seem to provide definitive proof that either Miles or Gundy took any kind of organizational hand, but player did report that a certain attitude came down from the top.  Miles, especially, is repeatedly indicated as the driving-force behind these developments, supposedly to bring Oklahoma State to national prominence.  The discussion of a hostess service that allegedly paid sexual favors to recruits made my skin crawl most of all.

The big problem of course is that these things are rapidly becoming par for the course in college football.  Helping not at all is the NCAA, an increasingly feckless organization that bungled the last program torpedoed by investigative journalism.  I am referring to Miami and the inability of the NCAA to find any evidence of violations.  I realize many readers take these stories with a grain of salt, which I get.  But I tend to think the players that give interviews for these stories are telling the truth…the problem is we have become de-sensitized and a little too comfortable with the culture surrounding college football.  I don’t have a solution or proposal, but before too long these types of stories will become the rule and not the exception.

Bit #6: NFL Power Rankings…such as they are after one week

1.      Denver (1-0) 

Would you want to play these guys after last Thursday?

 

2.      49ers (1-0)

Big win against Green Bay last Sunday, and Kaepernick continues to look good, whether in the pocket or out.

 

3.      Saints (1-0)

Running game definitely needs to improve but beating your chief divisional rival out of the gate looks pretty good.  Also, they gave up 367 yards, a modest figure compared to last year.

 

4.      Packers (0-1)

Two big corners injured left the secondary gashed in San Fran, but Aaron Rodgers can still put up massive numbers.  Expect their record not to be great all season, but this is a good team.

 

5.      Bears (1-0)

I am normally not this high on the Bears but after beating a very capable defense in Cincy last week they have shown the Trestman offense has some ability.

 

6.      Bengals (0-1)

Based purely on competition, the Bengals put in a good Week 1 showing last week.  A primetime game this weekend will be an interesting test case for the offense.

 

7.      Seahawks (1-0)

Purely symptomatic of playing one week, but a pedestrian 12 points against a perennially bad defense can’t be sneezed at.  The biggest game of the week, however, is their tilt against the Niners.

 

8.      Falcons (0-1)

Like the Bengals, a good showing against a tough team and in a tough building.  Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards and, with Steven Jackson gaining 77 yards on the ground, the offense looks balanced.  Let’s see how healthy their receivers are against St. Louis.

 

9.      Texans (1-0)

In the top 10 based purely on resume, not their showing against San Diego, even if it was gutsy.

 

10.  Patriots (2-0)

Similar to Texans, this definitely isn’t based on their slim victories over rookie QBs, but it’s Week 2 so this will all change.

Maybe a Little Cause for Concern

Every week after the Redskins play I plan to include on Dibbles and Bits my thoughts about the game.  I tried this last season and, due to having my mind elsewhere, rarely followed through.  Much like RGIII’s first half mechanics last night, or my putting stroke, a constant distraction away from my erstwhile sports blog.  But, with a new season comes new beginning and new resolutions.

By now you have likely heard all the potential storylines from this game, but I will make the argument that the cause for concern has been embellished on offense.  Don’t get me wrong, RGIII looked downright awful in the first half last night.  I rarely parrot Jon Gruden, but as a former quarterbacks coach he recognized the Cutler Syndrome early on.  Griffin did not step into his first few throws, significantly affecting accuracy.  His numbers reflect this, with 5-for-11 for 53 yards in the first half.  And I will certainly emphasize that this looked to be rust.  He has not played a live action game or even been smacked under the lights in almost nine months.  Griffin was bound to have second thoughts about his repaired knee and, while the Eagles threw unorthodox pressure schemes at him, had also not needed a pocket presence since January.  That said, his first interception was quite likely the worst decision he’s made in a professional uniform, as Santana Moss was bracketed by at least two defenders, if not three.  Chuck Norris isn’t completing that pass.

But, for all his struggles early, I am confident with Griffin going forward.  25-for-38 and two touchdowns in the second half showed he had found some rhythm, and the offense hummed as a result.  Most impressive about Griffin is that he led a furious comeback with an uninspiring group of wide receivers.  His passing looked good in that second half.  As far as the running game, pundits want to bemoan his unwillingness to expand the pocket last night.  I agree that Griffin worked wonders out of the bootleg last year, but did anyone truly expect him to trample around the field after the offseason knee surgery?  He also used his legs when necessary, providing good evidence that he’s at least listened to the news in the past few months.  It wasn’t a sparkling performance by any means, but not too bad by the end.

I will, however, continue to take issue with Kyle Shanahan.  While I would never call him incapable, he seemed unable to grasp the idea that the offense needed to sustain a drive for no reason other than giving the defense some rest against Chip Kelly’s attack.  After a huge sack by Ryan Kerrigan moved the Eagles out of field goal range, Shanahan dialed up a deep pass on first down, followed by an Alfred Morris run, concluded by another deep pass, all with the Skins down only 12-7.  The three plays combined for zero yards and the Eagles scored four plays into their next drive.  Earlier in the first quarter, the defense faced 18 plays in six minutes with only a minute of rest, resulting in a DeSean Jackson touchdown.  The ability of the Redskin offense to not extend drives or stay on the field ultimately decided this game, and I think in a key spot, Shanahan didn’t do well.  He clearly knows RGIII can find rhythm on the short passes…at one point in the third quarter the offense had 167 receiving yards with 162 of those coming after the catch.  Moving the ball to shifty receivers on the outside took advantage of the Philly pressure late in the game.  While I give him points for that adjustment, Shanahan showed no sense of easing RGIII into a gameplan based on short, accurate passes designed to increase his confidence.  After nine months of no live-action play, I think that would have helped.

On defense, I also think there is some small cause for optimism.  The front seven consistently pressured Vick and looked stout in pass rushing. 

The run coverage, however, was spotty.  I understand that McCoy is a shifty back, but he victimized the Skins on the backside of running plays.  He consistently ran around the ends and outside linebackers who over-committed to the running play, forcing one-on-one tackles in the open field.  And while we’re on that subject, any discussion of the secondary needs to begin with tackling questions.  Rookie Bacarri Rambo spent much of preseason looking for his jock and last night was no different.  Both McCoy and Vick very simply juked around Rambo on multiple occasions.  E.J. Biggers also struggled to tackle in the open field, but not being a safety by trade means he gets a little less scorn for playing poorly.  Otherwise, this is a tough game to judge from a defensive perspective.  The blitzkrieg unleashed by Chip Kelly was entirely new to the league and given the offensive ineptitude, I’m unwilling to place much blame on the defensive unit as a whole besides awful tackling.

Looking to next Sunday in Green Bay, the Redskins will need to solve the offensive woes to keep up with the Pack.  Regrettably, Green Bay’s aerial assault might be too much for our beleaguered secondary, but the offensive line for the Packers looks spotty without tackle Bryan Bulaga.  The Packers, by virtue of playing San Fran on Sunday, are conditioned to accept the read option and defend against it.  As such, I’d bet on RGIII to try to beat them through the air, much like Kaepernick was able to do this week. 

On a final note, the Chip Kelly offense debuted wonderfully last night, but it will be interesting to see how the scheme fares against a defense that has time for a cold one on the sidelines.  The first drive was immensely impressive and should bring some fun and fireworks to the team, but taking advantage of a gassed DC defense also accounted for some of that success.  For my money, don’t expect the Eagles to replicate the absurd number of plays per half, but it’s not inconceivable that they average 30 points a game this year.