Predicting the NFC South

Bounty-gate struck the NFL in April, beginning a saga of lawsuits, vitriol, and disbelief.  While the NFL originally looked to be fully in the right, subsequent events have cast questions on their evidence.  Regardless, the premier team in the NFC South, the Saints, must compete in 2012 without their head coach.  So, how does that shake up the division?

1.      Atlanta Falcons

The Skinny: Might be a trendy pick, but the Falcons have all the weapons they need.  Matt Ryan progresses each year and has played very well in the preseason.  His wide receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones, provide arguably the best one-two option for a quarterback in the entire league.  Jones in particular could break out this year.  Michael Turner will again be a workhorse back with lots of carries to his credit, but look for the passing game to dominate.  The acquisition of Asante Samuel in the offseason adds a ball-hawking cornerback to the mi for Atlanta, a welcome addition for any team.  This year the Falcons will make the postseason again, but coach Mike Smith better hope he can win once he gets there.

The Gaping Holes: The trenches for this team have been abysmal.  Ryan was hit by pass rush 84 times last year, fourth most in the league.  The starters on the O-line have shown a marked inability to protect him.  With Jones’ speed on the outside, decent protection could lead to more deep balls.  The line needs to step up their game.  On the defensive side, John Abraham needs a breather as the only Falcon pass-rusher of any consequence.  The linebackers must create this year, especially against divisional QBs like Drew Brees and Cam Newton.

Key Games: Atlanta faces all four AFC West teams before the bye, so winning in those games will be crucial for success.  Otherwise, October 28 at Philadelphia, Nov. 4 vs. Dallas, Nov. 11 at New Orleans, Nov. 29 vs. New Orleans, Dec. 22 at Detroit

Prediction: The game with Detroit at the end of the season will have huge playoff implications if I’m to be believed.  I see the Falcons finishing one game ahead of the Saints for the divisional crown at 11-5.  Matt Ryan has all the receivers he could want, and I’d be willing to be Jacquizz Rodgers channels his inner Darren Sproles as a backup speedster.  But, given the strength of the NFC, the Falcons lose again in the playoffs and can Mike Smith.

2.      New Orleans Saints

The Skinny: The answer to the question above is “not that much.”  While the Saints are lacking the figure at the head of the organization, Drew Brees will continue to be an offensive genius.  One more good season and we can pencil him into the Hall of Fame without question.  Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles posed huge problems for defenses last season, and given statements by the offensive coordinator, Sproles should see more targets on the field.  The backfield by committee model frustrates fantasy owners but does wonders for the Saints as a whole.  Every type of running back can be represented in their backfield, which will help them against the weak defenses in Carolina and Tampa.

The Gaping Holes: There is more riding on Drew Brees this season than at any other point.  He must run the offense without his mentor and co-conspirator in coach Sean Payton.  That might get to him after a while.  His protection team on the line also lost Carl Nicks, meaning one of the best guard tandems in Jahari Evans and Nicks has been broken up.  Ben Grubbs helps as a replacement, but maybe not enough for the whole line.  On defense, the question remains how the unit will play under new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Key Games: Sep. 30 at Green Bay, Nov. 5 vs. Philadelphia, Nov. 11 vs. Atlanta, Nov. 29 at Atlanta, Dec. 9 at New York Giants

Prediction: The Saints will be a wild-card team this year, likely beating out the Lions/Bears for a playoff spot with a 10-6 record.  Brees might carry a lot, but in the end I see the defense being unable to stop opponents.  Their performance against the 49ers last season in the playoffs did nothing to make fans confident that unit can play.  Quarterback play will carry them, but don’t be surprised to see a few mishaps along the way (maybe off coaching mistakes?).

3.      Carolina Panthers

The Skinny: Cam Newton proved last year that rookie quarterbacks without traditional molds can play very well in the NFL.  Around him, the addition of Mike Tolbert in the backfield adds a strong red-zone option for close touchdowns and fourth down conversions.  Last year, the defense hurt the team’s chances, but linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis return this year with a vengeance.  The best defensive player on the Panthers by far, Beason provides excellent tackling ability and run coverage.  In the end, all depends on Cam Newton, but an improved defense will help.

The Gaping Holes: I had Steve Smith on my fantasy team last year and he surprised everyone with his stellar play before injury.  As much as I like him, however, in Newton’s second year defenses are more prepared for Carolina’s aerial attack, so a complimentary wide receiver would prove very useful for the Panthers.  Also, the defensive line played awfully last season, and it appears not much has changed.  If defensive end Charles Johnson can create sacks, the Panthers will be in good shape.  Otherwise, the defensive front just takes up space for the linebackers.

Key Games: Playing all three divisional rivals in the first four games doesn’t help for the later stages, and the Panthers have some other big games.  Oct. 21 vs. Dallas, Oct. 28 at Chicago, November 26 at Philadelphia.

Prediction: Another tough pick to make, but the talent surrounding Newton does not match up to the Falcons and Saints.  But, the Panthers are primed for a surprisingly good year…their record just might not reflect increased standard play.  I see 8-8 with Newton just a shade under 4,000 yards in the air.

4.      Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Skinny: After a very active offseason, the Bucs look to improve upon a supremely disappointing 2011.  Quarterback Josh Freeman showed remarkable ability two seasons ago, so if he can return to that form the Bucs will again surprise.  The addition of Carl Nicks will bolster a beleaguered offensive line that couldn’t block for 1^st down running plays last year.  Also, Vincent Jackson now plays in Tamp Bay, a weapon for Freeman and definitely a receiver upgrade.  Look for tight end Dallas Clark, formerly of Indianapolis, to have a solid year after injury-plagued seasons.  Finally, Doug Martin shows lots of Ray Rice’s game in him as a shorter, quicker running back with the ability to run between the tackles.  He likely will receive most of the carries in head coach Greg Schiano’s bruising running attack.

The Gaping Holes: The run defense was worst in the league last year, and not much has been changed from last year’s unit.  Gerald McCoy, the high draft pick at defensive tackle, will need to stay healthy for the front seven to have any luck this year.  The linebackers resemble your grandfather’s black tie: riddled with stains and holes.  None of the linebackers played well last year, so very little tells me they will change their ways in 2012.

Key Games: Sep. 16 at New York Giants, Oct. 21 vs. New Orleans, Nov. 18 at Carolina, Nov. 25 vs. Atlanta

Prediction: Last year’s 4-12 record certainly won’t be in play this year, but 6-10 will be a likely landing spot.  The Bucs need one more year under Schiano to compete in their tough division.  I am also skeptical a return to the running game will do very much for them in terms of scoring points, a part of the game the Bucs can’t ignore in the prolific NFC South.  One more year.

Predicting the AFC North

While the divisions in the West might hold the most open competitions, the AFC North has its own share of concerns.  The Ravens defense, usually so vaunted, must deal with Father Time.  Ben Roethlisberger might have issues with his offensive coordinator.  The Bengals, so surprising a year ago, rest their fortune on the shoulders of two sophomores.  And the Browns toil, swimming upstream for the 13^th year in a row.

1.      Baltimore Ravens

The Skinny: The Ravens have competed in each of the last three seasons, meeting demise from the Patriots more often than not in the postseason.  But, the team brings a great offense to the table that might be the most perfectly balanced in the league.  Ray Rice averaged 4.7 yards a carry last year to 1349 rushing yards.  Quarterback Joe Flacco leads a passing attack that will look a little different this year.  With no Derrick Mason, Flacco will have Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin on the outside, in addition to offseason acquisition Jacoby Jones.  Might not sound appealing, but throw in plans that the Ravens will use the no-huddle offense this year, and all that speed might work in their favor.  The defense largely speaks for itself, with Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, and Ed Reed some of the more prestigious players at their respective positions.

The Gaping Holes: Age permeates the defensive side of the ball for this team.  Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are not getting any younger.  The injury of Terrell Suggs also has the potential to hurt the pass rush of Baltimore, but the immensely well-timed drafting of Courtney Upshaw will help fill the void.  Thus far in preseason, the Ravens have not found the right starting combinations on the offensive line, especially at the tackle positions.  If Baltimore wants to keep riding the running game, they will need to figure out the O-Line in short order.  Otherwise, the Ravens are primed.

Key Games: Sep. 23 vs. New England, Oct. 21 at Houston, Nov. 18 at Pittsburgh, Dec. 2 vs. Pittsburgh, Dec. 23 vs. New York Giants

Prediction: This race will be fairly close, as both teams have the same kind of weaknesses.  But, the Ravens bring the offensive balance to the table that Pittsburgh will likely lack.  If Baltimore can split the series with the Steelers, 11-5 is possible, with 10-6 likely.  Still, their division record will be good enough to beat the Steelers in a tiebreaker.

2.      Pittsburgh Steelers

The Skinny: This is a risky pick.  The Steelers bring back an experienced, potent, and tough defense that will hold the team in games.  Ben Roethlisberger can make plays with his feet, keeping plays alive long enough to find the open man.  The wide receiving corps, often undervalued by those not in Pittsburgh, brings the right combination of vertical speed and agility from the slot position to give defenses headaches.  On the defensive side, there are no real areas of concern other than general age.  Troy Polamalu continues as a premier run-stopping safety, while James Harrison, Larry Foote, Lawrence Timmons, and Lamarr Woodley bring big hits into the backfield.  The cornerback position across from Ike Taylor remains a small mystery, but should not suffer too much.

The Gaping Holes: Unfortunately, there is a big downside in Pittsburgh this year.  In 2011 the Steelers relied on the passing game, a stark change from their identity in the 2000s.  The result got them to the playoffs with a hobbled quarterback.  Running back Rashard Mendenhall has no timetable for his return, meaning carries will go to Isaac Redman, who is capable but not awe-inspiring.  For Big Ben, he must stay healthy.  The loss of David DeCastro this past weekend removes a valuable young cog on the offensive line, in addition to the injury-plagued career of stud center Maurkice Pouncey.  That will be the biggest key for the Steelers: should Ben stay in the games and relatively healthy, he can bring the team to the postseason.  If not, there could be a mess.

Key Games: Oct. 7 vs. Philadelphia, Nov. 4 at New York Giants, Nov. 18 vs. Baltimore, Dec. 2 at Baltimore

Prediction: I am not as down on the Steelers as everyone else has been recently.  While Ben’s relationship with Todd Haley doesn’t appear to be good, once the season starts he will change his ways and perform.  The lack of a running game, however, will ultimately put serious strain on the passing attack, causing the Steelers to go 10-6 and lose the division to Baltimore.

3.      Cincinnati Bengals

The Skinny: Cincy surprised everyone last year by making the playoffs.  The play of quarterback Andy Dalton and wideout A.J. Green, both 2011 rookies, sets the stage for many to pick this team going into 2012.  And there’s good reason to do so.  Dalton can throw to Green and Jermaine Gresham at tight end, a valuable commodity in the passing NFL.  On defense, the Bengals played very well and can build off last year.  The additions of Devon Still and Dre Kirkpatrick through the draft will add line and secondary depth.  Carlos Dunlap appears poised to return a defensive end after not playing last season due to injury.  He could easily be a 10-sack player.  Finally, Vontaze Burfict has played fantastic in the preseason and could be a huge steal for the Bengals as an undrafted free agent.

The Gaping Holes: In a word, inexperience.  The Bengals are the youngest team by average age in the league and while that gives them huge upside, their division leaves very little room for puerile mistakes.  The running game, riding Cedric Benson last season, focuses squarely on New England transplant BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  Can he be relied upon to slow the game down and still advance the chains?  The offensive line also remains in a state of flux leading into the regular season opener.

Key Games: All four games against the Ravens and Steelers.

Prediction: The series with the Ravens and Steelers is the only thing that matters right now.  While the Bengals can play very well against almost anyone, they finish the season at Pittsburgh and against the Ravens in Weeks 16 and 17.  Given the mediocre performances of Green-Ellis in the past two seasons, I don’t like the odds for Cincinnati this year.  They finish 8-8 with a chance to make the playoffs in Week 17.

4.      Cleveland Browns

The Skinny: There isn’t much of one except rookie hype.  Trent Richardson, the bruising running back recently out of Alabama, might be the second coming of Adrian Peterson with his similar style.  Likewise, Brandon Weeden brings another fresh face at the quarterback position.  He should be able to create opportunities through the air while relying on Richardson for pace.

The Gaping Holes: Unfortunately, almost every other position has problems.  The wide receivers might be poised for a breakout year but the mediocrity surrounding Greg Little and Mohamed Massoqui the last few years doesn’t inspire much hope.  On defense the recent off-field troubles of cornerback Joe Haden will have a large affect on the secondary’s performance.  This unit will also be without Scott Fujita for the first two games at middle linebacker due to suspension, so leadership will come from elsewhere.  Overall, a massive rebuilding effort.

Key Games: Oct. 21 at Indianapolis, Oct. 28 vs. San Diego, Dec. 9 vs. Kansas City (read as: “Winnable Games”)

Prediction: The Browns will spend much of the year losing close games.  I do foresee the offense stepping up its game in 2012 but the defense will not be able to stop opponents.  The talent in this division above Cleveland makes anything more than a 4-12 finish would be a success.

Bit #1: Highway Robbery in LA

I am still speechless about the Red Sox-Dodgers trade last week.  Boston unloaded $260 million of its payroll to Los Angeles, in effect pressing the reset button in the hopes of re-tooling for the future.  Sure, the Red Sox lost two guys with $100 million contracts.  Adrian Gonzalez alone was providing the majority of the offense for Boston, meaning the Red Sox knowingly gave up a big piece.

But look at their return…packaging Gonzalez with Crawford and Beckett, the Red Sox eliminated an underachieving left fielder who will likely sit next year and a clubhouse pitching cancer in the form of Beckett.  The deal leaves Boston in Grade AAA position to pursue any free agent they want this offseason.  Josh Hamilton, for example, looks to be high on their list.  The money will also give Boston the chance to bring back David Ortiz, a hometown favorite currently on a one-year deal.

For the Dodgers, the deal accomplishes the purpose of making a splash.  On paper, they might have the best lineup in baseball, with Hanley Ramirez, Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp all threatening.  The acquisition of Crawford shocks me, however.  He likely will sit out the 2013 season with Tommy John surgery.  The Dodgers knew that and still traded for him, meaning they value his long-term possibility.  Still, they could have signed Michael Bourn in the offseason for half the money.  Barring another blockbuster deal, Crawford won’t be moved anytime soon, placing a large millstone on the necks of Dodgers ownership.  On the flip side, LA could win the World Series with all of these guys.  Still, they were fleeced into giving up a top of the rotation prospect and any salary leverage they could have in future trading deadlines.  A bad deal for the Dodgers, but credit the Red Sox for their aggressive play.

Bit #2: Lance Armstrong clearly guilty

Lance Armstrong means very little now for the history books.  His records, Tour de France titles, and Olympic medal are now wiped clean.  What makes it horrible: he admitted guilt by withdrawing his challenge.

Personally, I was never convinced of his guilt.  The evidence of USADA (U.S. Anti-Doping Agency) showed “traces” of banned substances, though he never failed a test.  The eyewitness accounts of Tyler Hamilton and other cyclists, however, drew USADA to Armstrong.  A subsequent report details blood samples from Armstrong as “being consistent with” blood manipulation and use of banned substances.  Notice the lack of the word “proved.”  I would also add, the testimony of Hamilton came after he was banned for eight years for doping.

But, Armstrong let them have their way with his legacy.  Certainly, his denials were not viewed favorably by any of the cycling governing bodies, but for a man with so much championship pedigree he withdrew quietly.  Folks will still love, admire, and respect Armstrong.  And they should.  His return from cancer to anything resembling a sporting career deserves praise.  I find it hard to believe, however, that a man supposedly as innocent as Armstrong claimed he was would give up.  To a reporter known for dissing Armstrong in the news, the cyclist berated him in front of a whole press conference after a question.  As an athlete, he has always been proud.  For a withdrawal so out of character, Armstrong either heard about more damning evidence to come or decided he could not beat the rap.  I think the former is more likely.  If you won seven Tour de France titles, would you let them go?

Bit #3: Dez Bryant Rules

As usual, the Dallas Cowboys organization confirmed its status as a less than elite group this weekend.  Hoping to whip star(?) receiver Dez Bryant into shape off the field, the Cowboys enacted a series of rules for him.  These include a midnight curfew, no alcohol, no strip clubs, attendance at team-approved nightclubs, and a 3 man team to accompany him.

The draconian nature of these rules notwithstanding, Dez Bryant is not worth this.  The Cowboys are trying to squeeze every last ounce of play out of Bryant in the hopes he can rebound.  Jerry Jones wants to discuss with the media always about Bryant becoming part of the team, but the rules placed on him already set him apart from his teammates.  No other NFL organization uses this approach.  When the Patriots, the gold standard of attracting questionable characters, add a potential cancer to the roster, the expectations are set for them to be professional and follow team rules.  The punishment: losing your roster spot.

Obviously Dallas folded lots of money into Bryant, so he might well be worth the attention.  But, the organizational approach to enact draconian rules will not change anything, even if Bryant plays halfway decent next year.  The guy laid hands on his mother and thus deserves a swift kick out of town as opposed to a somewhat conciliatory approach from the team.  Then again, Jerry Jones must have known there were character flaws in Bryant when he drafted him, so perhaps he’s prepared for this all along?  If so, why did he take him already huh?

If the Cowboys want to take the next step, stop coddling players and create a locker room more concerned with a Super Bowl than approving nightclubs.

Bit #4: What’s with the beards?

Joe Buck, Tony Reali, and Mike Greenberg sported beards this past weekend.  I understand the Little League World Series represented a sports apocalypse for us all, but the halfhearted attempts at facial hair need to stop.  Buck in particular looked ghastly with a few stray gray hairs gracing his chin.  Football cometh, boys, so let’s not scare the impressionable future fans eh?

The Not So Magic 160 and Predicting the NFC North

Two huge stories dominate baseball right now and, amazingly, one such tale centers on the Washington Nationals, an anomaly for any professional team in Washington.  Last season, the rookie phenom had Tommy John surgery to repair ligaments in his elbow.  He sat out almost the entire season in preparation for the 2012 campaign.  Before the season started however, the Nationals front office announced they would like to shut down Strasburg after 160 innings in order to save his arm for the future.  Debate has raged ever since.

The cacophony has increased the last few weeks, especially since the Nationals currently hold the best record in baseball.  And Strasburg, along with the rest of the rotation, has been a huge part of that success, with a 15-5 record and 2.85 ERA.  Up to now, Strasburg has thrown 145 innings, meaning he has about two starts left before reaching the magic 160.

Everyone has joined this conversation.  Manager Davey Johnson’s press conferences display an unfailing devotion to the magic 160, but in recent weeks he has sarcastically been asking media members “any ideas on getting Stephen to pitch in September?” perhaps signifying a disconnect between himself and General Manager Mike Rizzo.  For Rizzo, the decision has always rested with him.  And he wants to remind all of us about it, refusing to give credence to Johnson’s musings or speculations about how much time Strasburg will miss.  The pitcher’s agent, the famous Scott Boras, has inserted his opinion into the discussion, assuring everyone that the team (which somehow includes him based on his statements) has Strasburg’s long-term health in mind, regardless of possible pennants or, dare I say it, championships.

For Boras, the man known to obtain overpaid contracts for overrated veterans, the smooth talk disguises his own potential personal gain.  After this year, Strasburg’s contract could send him to arbitration over the next three years before he finally becomes a free agent in 2017.  Hoping he remains in DC until 2017 has remarkable similarities to hoping humans spontaneously sprout wings…it won’t happen.  Strasburg will receive an arbitrated contract for maybe two of those years, but eventually he will garner huge money from a bigger market team.  And Boras will benefit directly from that payday further down the road.  Boras might have his client’s interest in mind, but his statements cannot be taken at face value.  He knows the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. will vie for Strasburg’s services in the years to come, and he very well could become the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history.

How does that mentality affect the team’s decision?  In short, championship runs come around with no timetable for your next run.  While the Nationals admittedly played very well this year and could go deep in the playoffs, next year holds a new host of questions and uncertainty.  Will Ryan Zimmerman stay healthy?  Can the rotation be counted on without Edwin Jackson?  How about the bullpen, normally the most volatile part of a team from one year to the next?  Washington’s team hums on all cylinders now, here, in 2012.  As much as Strasburg’s protection should be paramount, the Nats will not have him for much longer and may never have a chance this appetizing for success again.  Championships are to be pursued, not put off.  While the rotation of DC will play very well in September and October, Strasburg has the mythical status that can scare batters in the playoffs (think Curt Schilling or Randy Johnson in 2001).  He might not be a guaranteed win, but he will keep the team in key playoff games.  Banking on next year’s team makes very little sense right now and the gamble might very well not pay off.  Given the talent on Atlanta, Miami, and potentially Philadelphia, the Nationals have not by any means staked their claim to the division this year. 

In short, let’s not put the wagon before the horse.  The Nats will not have Strasburg forever, and while they can bank on their current rotation for the playoffs, Strasburg makes the team that much better.  And, does anyone think he doesn’t want to win a championship?  He’s a professional ballplayer, so of course he wants to win, and win right now.  As much as the Nationals have made brilliant roster moves this year, shutting down Strasburg now comes down to a gamble, relying on the team performing similarly next season.  As the magic 160 approaches, he likely will be shut down by the front office.  Should the Nationals not do well, we in DC will wonder if this decision could have changed the postseason prospects for a franchise and a city starved for success.

Predicting the NFC North

Last year the NFC North contained two great stories: the 15-1 Packers and the first playoff berth for the Lions in a long time.  This season, the Bears look rejuvenated and retooled, meaning the divisional games between those three franchises this year will determine who wins the division.  Minnesota continues to wallow in the wasteland and will look up at the other three teams the entire season.

1.      Green Bay Packers

The Skinny: It’s tough to pick against this team, considering very few players left the team and very few joined.  Aaron Rodgers, the reigning NFL MVP, returns a deep receiving corps complete with upside in the form of Randall Cobb.  He throws accurately and runs the offense to perfection.  The offensive line improved dramatically with the addition of Jeff Saturday at center, who should do well if he can adjust properly.  The weaker secondary play in the division will help the Packers air attack.

The Gaping Holes: Last year, the Packers defense played awfully, forcing Rodgers to carry the team on late drives.  Six of the team’s eight draft picks focused on defensive picks, some of whom will have large expectations for the coming year.  Nick Perry at outside linebacker will need to pressure quarterbacks as should defensive end Jerel Worthy.  Charles Woodson will likely move to safety, meaning cornerback will be an open competition opposite Tramon Williams.  The secondary will likely be a liability again this season barring a breakout performance from a youngster.  A one-win season also looks unlikely given the difficult schedule confronting the Packers and their inability last year to create any kind of running attack.

Key Games: Sep. 9 vs. San Francisco, Sep. 13 vs. Chicago, Sep. 30 vs. New Orleans, Oct. 14 at Houston, Nov. 25 at New York Giants

Predictions: The games above do not include the two games against the Lions in the last few weeks of the season.  The Packers thankfully have Rodgers in their corner, and while the defense will still be poor against the pass, the Pack finishes 13-3 playing really tough opposition throughout the year.

2.      Detroit Lions

The Skinny: The Detroit Lions surprised everyone last year and are poised to again ascend the ranks of the NFC.  Matthew Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards last season and 40 touchdowns with superstar wide receiver Calvin Johnson decimating double coverage on almost any play.  The defensive line with Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley will still maintain a vigorous pass rush and serious smash mouth mentality.  Stafford’s ability to create with his arm can take this team a long way.  Most of the team’s talent is 25 and under, and with so many returning starters coach Jim Schwartz will again have the team in contention.

The Gaping Holes: Unfortunately, the running game has no direction.  Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure, the alleged saviors of the Detroit running backs, both look unhealthy right now.  Leshoure will make his debut in the next preseason game, but does having all of last year off affect him?  The release of Aaron Berry for off-filed issues will also exacerbate concerns in the secondary, the weakest part of the defense last year by far.  Finally, with smash mouth intensity comes moments of high emotion.  Last year, such moments derailed the Lions via suspensions to key players.  If those moments return, the Lions may find themselves without important players at key times in an incredibly top-heavy division.

Key Games: Sep. 16 at San Francisco, Oct. 14 at Philadelphia, Oct. 22 at Chicago, Nov. 22 vs. Houston, Dec. 22 vs. Atlanta, Dec. 30 vs. Chicago

Prediction: I cannot stress enough how important games against Green Bay and Chicago figure for this team.  I envision all three teams 2-2 against the other two, meaning nondivisional schedules will determine placement.  Detroit has tough games at tough times, but I think they can beat both Atlanta and Chicago towards the end of the season to finish 12-4 and obtain the top Wild Card position in the NFC.

3.      Chicago Bears

The Skinny: A weird season approaches for the Bears.  A franchise historically known for its defensive prowess comes to the table with a fully packed offensive stable.  Jay Cutler had the Bears in Super Bowl contention before going down with injury last year.  He and Matt Forte return this year complimented by the additions at wide receiver of Brandon Marshall and rookie Alshon Jeffrey.  The defensive pass rush, often most feared in the NFC, will receive a huge boost with the addition of rookie defensive end Shea McClellin.  Throw in Robbie Gould and the electric Devin Hester, and the special teams unit for Chicago ranks in the top five based on a cursory eye test.

The Gaping Holes: One problem has haunted the Bears for years: the offensive line.  Last year the line played much better than the year before, but Jay Cutler remains a pocket passer who needs protection.  As of now, the blind side tackle spot does not have an owner, which raises some questions about the efficacy of the line.  Still, the addition of Jason Campbell puts a starter in the backup QB spot.  Another weakness will be the safety position, as injuries have plagued the position in the preseason and Major Wright was unable to stay healthy last year.  Ultimately, the Bears have a tough schedule like the Packers as well.

Key Games: Sep. 13 at Green Bay, Oct. 22 vs. Detroit, Nov. 11 vs. Houston, Nov. 19 at San Francisco, Dec. 16 vs. Green Bay, Dec. 30 at Detroit

Prediction: The Bears will finish 11-5, splitting the season series with Green Bay and Detroit.  The aerial attack combining Cutler and Marshall will victimize secondaries in the league this year but, knowing the Bears, they will fall flat against teams on the road like Dallas and San Francisco.  The last game of the season against the Lions will likely be the biggest game of the year with both fighting for space in the stacked NFC playoff picture.

4.      Minnesota Vikings

The Skinny: Where to begin…the Vikings really stink.  Unfortunately, their model of building around Adrian Peterson has not worked.  Christian Ponder, the top pick of last year’s draft, will look to improve this season.  The addition of offensive lineman Matt Kalil from the draft will provide greater protection for Ponder.  Quietly, defensive end Jared Allen almost broke the single season sack record last year, an intimidating prospect of the end of the line.  The Vikings also have an easier schedule early on, so expect some early hype about this team.

The Gaping Holes: Without being too flippant, almost every part of this team needs help.  Behind Percy Harvin, there are no wide receivers.  Adrian Peterson will obviously bear a full load, but his knee injury last year means he likely will be slower in returning to his former self, if he ever does.  On defense, there are no reasonably proficient linebackers or cornerbacks, with a bright spot at safety in Harrison Smith.  The Vikings play in a tough division and will be treated as such.

Key Games: Oct. 14 at Washington, Oct. 21 vs. Arizona, Nov. 4 at Seattle, Dec. 16 at St. Louis

Prediction: The Vikings will be in a range of wins from four to seven possibly, but I see a bad team that will pick again in the top five again next year after a 4-12 record.  The games listed above are the winnable games on their schedule, but the Vikes will not have an easy time this year.  

New Pair of Flowers for Augusta and AFC South Predictions

On Monday, Augusta National, the site of the Masters and most likely the most famous golf course in the world, admitted its first female members. (Grammatical note: The phrase is "first female members" not "first women members", which was the headline on Monday's USA Today.  The second phrase is improper grammar and generally harmful to reading eyes and hearing ears.  I have checked this with an authority, so believe it and use the proper phrasing).  The club, open since 1932, has experienced some pressure in recent years to admit women as full members, but until now has refused to even discuss the matter with the public.  The final decision to admit former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and South Carolina financier Darla Moore came like a bell in the night, a shock to many in golf who had not expected Augusta to budge anytime soon.

And yet, with such a momentous occasion, criticism poured in from media outlets all over the country.  Many media members, instead of applauding Augusta, asked variants of “what took you so long?”  Others, in a true show of ignorance, said, “this changes nothing, Augusta will continue to be the playground of the rich and famous!”  The second complaint can be read as, “you let in the wrong women.”

As far as criticizing Augusta’s delay, there can be no doubt that women have been barred for a long time, a stance incompatible with modern values regarding gender equality.  Yet, I do not think that is reason enough to criticize Augusta for taking so long.  Augusta National has always been a private institution, subject to its own whims and customs and the will of its membership.  To that end, they are well within their rights to make any kind of membership restrictions they want.  Before crying “racism” or “sexism”, that is no different than any other country club in your neighborhood.  The amount of invite-only clubs number in the hundreds around the U.S., with some retaining the all-male membership so hated by Augusta critics.  All prestigious golf clubs also have internal membership boards to vet applicants and do so based on many factors, the highest of which being wealth in most cases.  So, Augusta has followed its own prerogative for a long time as a club.  Which means the criticism focuses exclusively on Augusta as a golfing landmark, ignoring discriminatory practices seen at so many all-male clubs around the country.  Knowing Augusta’s status in the golfing world, this is a big deal and big day for female golfers around the world.  Criticizing Augusta for its delay misses the rights of its members and the monumental change this represents.  Hopefully, more will follow.

The second criticism truly makes me laugh.  Yet again, a course as prestigious as Augusta will not be admitting Sue Smith the homemaker as a member.  Like almost every recognizable golf club in the world, members are chosen for their ability to represent the club well and pay for its upkeep.  Why doesn’t Olympic Club, site of the 2012 U.S. Open, receive such ridicule?  Why not Aronimink in Philly, Firestone in Akron, or tiny Westwood in Vienna, Virginia?  All are guilty of using wealth as a membership condition, so to pick out Augusta as the bad egg strikes me as ignorant.  Golf has always been a moneyed sport, given the maintenance of courses, equipment costs, and fees for any club membership.  Very few impoverished kids are playing golf, and while that could be improved, the reality is golf requires money right now.  Even public courses of any consequence can be $65 a round at least.  Augusta has done nothing new, wrong, or particularly odious by adding two very successful women to its rolls.

And that’s another point…these are not slouches by any means.  Darla Moore is the head of a financial firm and has given vast amounts of money to South Carolina institutions.  Condoleeza Rice speaks for herself, an immensely successful and recognizable figure who rose to prominence as a black woman, no mean feat given the attitudes of the mid-20^th century.  An Augusta membership befits both women as a testament to their triumphs and successes.  For the future, perhaps Augusta will allow a higher number of successful women and truly reach the kind of gender equality so valued by many of its critics.  Consider that possibility…and acknowledge that could never happen without the announcement on Monday.  This represents a huge step for Augusta, and should be taken as such.

Predicting the AFC South

The AFC South saw a real change last year, as the dominant Colts fell to the depths of despair after a 2-14 season.  In their place, the Houston Texans broke through to make the playoffs for the first time in Houston.  The Titans surprised many with their play, while the Jaguars broke in rookie Blaine Gabbert in a rough season.  Amazingly, this year might look very similar to last year.

1.      Houston Texans

The Skinny: Shouldn’t shock most folks to see the Texans here considering the overall weakness of the division.  Matt Schaub had this team in serious Super Bowl discussions before injury last year, so his healthy return puts more confidence in the team.  Arian Foster and Ben Tate provide perhaps the best two-headed rushing attack in the whole league behind an experience, bruising offensive line.  On defense, the loss of Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans hurts at linebacker but Brian Cushing and Connor Barwin anchor a unit still best in the division.  Owen Daniels as tight end represents a safety blanket for Schaub, so should see consistent production.

The Gaping Holes: The Texans must stay healthy.  Injuries derailed them last year at multiple positions, and wide receiver seems most vulnerable.  Kevin Walter is not a proven No. 2 receiver, so any injury to stud Andre Johnson will wreak havoc.  The cornerbacks also raise some eyebrows, with Kareem Jackson and Brice McCain playing opposite Johnathan Joseph.  While Houston media outlets are hopeful after preseason games, the outlook doesn’t look great over a full 16 games.

Key Games: Oct. 14 vs. Green Bay, Oct. 21 vs. Baltimore, Nov. 11 at Chicago, Nov. 22 at Detroit, Dec. 10 at New England

Prediction: The five games above will decide the season for the Texans.  Back-to-back against Green Bay and Baltimore at home could create at least one quality win for this team.  The division remains so weak compared to the Texans that they should control their division.  I predict 10-6 provided the offense stays relatively healthy.  If skill positions start going down, there’s no telling what to expect.

2.      Tennessee Titans

The Skinny: The Titans pleasantly surprised last year, and it looks as if they can do so again this year.  Chris Johnson returns after a full offseason as does wide receiver Kenny Britt, on a torrid pace last year before injury.  The addition of guard Steve Hutchison to the offensive line makes that group much more protective of sophomore quarterback Jake Locker, who will try to re-create Matt Hasselbeck’s success last year in just his second season.  He can do so with draft pick Kendall Wright out of Baylor.  Mike Martin boosts the inside of this defensive line in ways that should stuff the run, and the Titans might have the best low altitude kicker in Rob Bironas.

The Gaping Hole: For the Titans the question is not of talent but execution.  Chris Johnson struggled to 1000 yards last year, so can he come back with an elite-level season?  With the loss of cornerback Cortland Finnegan the cornerback core looks very shaky and without any substantial depth.  For Jake Locker, his play last season inspired confidence, but can the Titans create the kind of offensive balance needed to give a young QB the right opportunity?  If the Titans can establish the running game, Locker can do damage with the play-action pass.

Key Games: Sep. 30 at Houston, Oct. 11 vs. Pittsburgh, Oct. 21 at Buffalo, Dec. 2 vs. Houston

Prediction: I might be cynical, but I do not trust Chris Johnson to come back.  His effort last year was never there and his measly yards-per-carry stat doesn’t reflect big games against weak opponents.  The Titans also have a brutal schedule with games against Chicago, Detroit, New England, and Green Bay.  The defense will be fearsome, but the growing pains of Jake Locker will keep the offense from being too explosive in my mind.  I see 8-8 as a likely record for this team.

3.      Jacksonville Jaguars

The Skinny: To make a long story short, Blaine Gabbert has looked excellent this preseason.  The addition of Justin Blackmon at wide receiver certainly gives him an explosive outside option and will take some burden off the running game.  Add in Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans, and the facelift at wide receiver is complete.  Russell Allen played very well at linebacker last year and Derek Cox was the best defender for a decent Jacksonville secondary last season.  That secondary should improve with ex-Giant Aaron Ross likely starting opposite Cox.

The Gaping Hole: The typical answer would be Gabbert’s play, but as of this week attention has shifted to Maurice Jones-Drew.  MJD led the league in rushing last season with just over 1600 yards and singlehandedly sunk two of my fantasy teams.  He’s unhappy with his current contract, however, and has been holding out for just over 30 days, reportedly requesting a trade.  Shaihd Khan has not been amused, giving him lip service as an important player, knowing full well a trade this late in the offseason would have to be slathering on a spit for him to pull the trigger.  Will Jones-Drew come back fully motivated and will the lack of offseason workouts hurt him?  It’s highly likely.  If so, Gabbert will need to improve quickly to make this team competitive.

Key Games: Sep. 30 vs. Cincinnati, Oct. 21 at Oakland, Dec. 9 vs. New York Jets

Prediction: I can’t help feeling like the games against Cincy and Oakland will be huge for this team’s confidence.  The three other games in that five game stretch are Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit, so winning against mid-level teams would really shock the team to possibly play well.  Unfortunately, Jacksonville will have to make a huge leap this year to be close to the top of this division, and it looks like the pieces likely won’t be there at the same time this season.  Gabbert’s development will carry this team and decide its fate.  I see him hurried in the pocket and a 6-10 record come season’s end.

4.      Indianapolis Colts

The Skinny: If there is a more exciting last place team out there this year, find them for me.  Andrew Luck has looked nothing short of stupendous for a rookie in the preseason.  He played in an NFL system the last three years and shows remarkable ability pre-snap to direct the offense.  Coby Fleener adds a familiar security blanket for Luck and Reggie Wayne will get open for Luck.  He will create some serious buzz around the league, especially since the Colts will likely be 2-1 after the first three weeks.

The Gaping Hole: In a word, youth.  Over half the team is totally new to the organization, so there will be some growing pains.  But, the lack of egos will also help the team to win and build together.  On defense, the Colts will need a little help.  Dwight Freeney continues to be the most overpaid player in the NFL for very little production, first round pick Jerry Hughes might be cut from the team, and the linebackers are not anyone you’ve ever heard about.  On the offensive side, the line is a wide-open competition, meaning there could be some protection issues for Luck to be comfortable.  That will be something to watch with games against the tough defensive fronts in Houston, Green Bay, and Tennessee.

Key Games: Sep. 9 at Chicago, Nov. 28 at New England

Prediction: The team won’t win the division, but playoffs aren’t totally out of the question depending on the AFC’s strength.  The Colts could create a huge buzz by beating the Bears at Soldier Field, but the last seven games of their schedule will likely decide Indy’s final record.  New England, Buffalo, Detroit, Tennessee, Kansas City, and two dates with Houston mark that run in the schedule.  The Colts will win at best two of those, but one is a surer bet.  I see a 5-11 year for them in 2012, but this team will make the playoffs next season by the looks of it.

Predicting the NFC West

I was supposed to embark on this plan almost 10 days ago, but trips to Utah and Idaho can take some wind out of your sails for writing.  But, amidst the dreary cosmopolitan bustle of DC, let’s turn our attention out west again.

The NFC West has some intriguing storylines this year.  Can the 49ers continue their surprising run of a season ago?  What about Sam Bradford and his sophomore slump, will that continue?  More importantly, can Kevin Kolb or Pete Carroll actually perform the jobs they are paid for?

1.      San Francisco 49ers

The Skinny: As many know, scheduling matters a ton in the NFL.  And this year is no different.  The 49ers play the Packers, Lions, Bears, Giants, Saints, and Patriots and will need their A game to win.  In that mode, all depends on Alex Smith.  He was dead-on-arrival this time last year but then led the 49ers to the NFC Championship, so Smith deserves some credit.  He also did so without much offensive weaponry around him.  The 49ers used the offseason to change all of that, adding Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and rookie A.J. Jenkins at wide receiver.  Of course, Moss likely will not play much of a factor, but his sprinting ability down the sideline can stretch most defenses.  For running backs, look for a more balanced attack this year.  While Brandon Jacobs looks to be out after a knee injury Saturday night, Kendall Hunter played very well last year and likely will bear some of the load off Frank Gore.

The Gaping Hole: Honestly folks, there aren’t many on this team.  While I’m tempted to tell the 49ers how little they should trust Carlos Rogers two seasons in a row, the only possible area of concerns looks to be the right side of the offensive line.  The right guard position, according to local sources, will be an open competition, and right tackle doesn’t have any daunting claimants.  Overall, a fairly talented roster.

Key Games: Sep. 9 at Packers, Sept. 16 vs. Lions, Nov. 11 vs. Rams, Nov. 19 vs. Bears, Nov. 25 at Saints

Prediction: I’m going with 11-5 for the Miners, but the three straight games after the bye week in November will likely define this season.  The first two weeks of the season are tough tests against the Packers and Lions, but given the weakness of the division as a whole there’s no reason the 49ers shouldn’t win at least nine games.  Assuming they beat the Giants at home and one of the key games, San Fran will be back in the playoffs with a vengeance.

2.      St. Louis Rams

The Skinny: Surprised?  Maybe you should be, but given the other options are Pete Carroll or Kevin Kolb, the Rams have a chance to be much better this year.  On one front, the offensive line will be much better.  The Rams added Scott Wells at center and Jason Smith, the former top pick, took a pay cut to stay in St. Louis and prove himself.  Add in a healthy Danny Amendola and Steve Smith the Lesser at receiver and it’s safe to bet the passing offense does much better this year.  On the other side of the ball, new coach Jeff Fisher will make this defense great eventually, but leaps and bounds will be seen this year.  Chris Long, Robert Quinn, and Michael Brockers are all first-round talent on the defensive line with Cortland Finnegan at cornerback to create toughness.  They might not be great, but the defense certainly will be better.

The Gaping Hole: Despite additions of Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins, the secondary still might give up some big plays.  Quentin Mikell has played for a while at free safety, but strong safety continues to be a problem for this defense.  I also see some doubts on the outside linebackers, as James Laurinaitis continues his one-man show for the Rams.  For opposing quarterbacks, the Rams could be very easy to exploit this season.

Key games: Sep 9 at Lions, Oct 28 vs. Patriots, Dec. 2 vs. 49ers

Prediction: Tough team to predict since so much rides on Bradford, but I have the Rams at 9-7 this year, with 8-8 also a distinctive possibility.  It’s tough to imagine this team being as bad as it was last year considering its defensive improvements and Bradford’s talent.  Games against the Lions in Week 1 and the Patriots in Week 8 are huge for this team, not necessarily because they could win (they likely won’t) but the Ram competition level will set the table for the season. 

3.      Seattle Seahawks

The Skinny: Hopefully I’m not the only one tired of the Seahawks this offseason, but the uncertainty surrounding this team continues to grow.  Matt Flynn will likely be the second coming of Matt Hasselbeck, but don’t expect benefits this year.  The much-publicized addition of Terrell Owens at wide receiver ensures some interest in Seattle, but knowing T.O. he will find a way to be thrown out of town.  If Sidney Rice can return to Minnesota form, the receiving game might have a chance with Rice, Owens, and Baldwin, but given Rice’s production in Seattle the chances are slim he puts it together.  The defense of this team played very, very well last year, and will keep this team in games this year. 

The Gaping Hole: While the quarterback position remains uncertain, the running game looks to be in trouble.  Sure, Marshawn Lynch went nuts last year, but his off the field baggage and huge offseason contract might mean a season of suspension and lackadaisical effort on Lynch’s behalf.  If he plays poorly, the entire offensive scheme will be adversely affected.

Key Games: Basically every game before their bye week, which includes opponents like the Cowboys, Packers, Panthers, Patriots, 49ers, and Lions.  There is a good chance this team might be 1-7 by Week 8, in which case Pete Carroll will be departing early.

Prediction: He will be gone no matter what, since this team won’t finish above 7-9 with their brutal schedule.  6-10 seems more likely to me, but regardless, the farce of Pete Carroll will end for all of us.

4.      Arizona Cardinals

The Skinny: Everyone admits this team is mediocre, but the question remains just how mediocre they might be.  The Cardinals last year played inspired football with John Skelton at quarterback, and the defense shut down opponents in the second half of the season.  Lest we forget, longtime stud Larry Fitzgerald and rookie Michael Floyd now patrol the perimeters at the receiver position and Beanie Wells, fresh off a 1200-yard season, adds a considerable depth to the offense.

The Gaping Hole: Forget everything I just said and realize the uncertainty at quarterback.  If Kevin Kolb starts the season, things could go downhill for the Cards in a hurry.  John Skelton might have a better record, but whether his skill-set puts this team in rarified air still needs to be determined.  But, does it matter who’s quarterback?  The offensive line of the Arizona has allowed 104 sacks the last two seasons…should that repeat, it won’t matter who’s playing under center.  Of slightly less importance are expectations for Wells, who while a 1200-yard rusher last year, had 228 of those yards in a win against the Rams.  It’s tough to expect that kind of production even once in a season, much less twice in two seasons, so Wells may not provide the necessary offensive balance.

Key Games: Sep. 16 at Patriots, Sep. 23 vs. Eagles, Dec. 16 vs. Lions, Dec. 23 vs. Bears

Prediction: I agonized over this…betting money puts the Cardinals around 7-9 this year, but I see wide possibilities.  The Key Games above are back-to-back contests and including a game against the Packers, the ability for Arizona to win in the NFC West will determine this season.  I don’t trust either quarterback with this team nor the running game.  I predict 5-11 with Ken Whisenhunt lucky to retain his job for next season.

Bit #1: Is it time to change baseball testing?

Last week, the Giants outfielder and All-Star MVP Melky Cabrera was suspended 50 games for using a banned substance.  Initially, Cabrera was apologetic, accepting the responsibility for the test and owning it.  What a class act.

Until he wasn’t…subsequent reports showed Cabrera spearheaded efforts to create a fictitious website for the product he took in an attempt to pass the testosterone supplement off as legitimate.  Apparently, MLB investigators easily saw through the ruse, and Cabrera now looks less like a class act and more like a cheat.  Should the allegations of website malfeasance be true, Cabrera’s honesty all of a sudden looks opportunistic, not necessarily genuine.  Are we to believe he’s really sorry for taking the substance if he tried to cover it up?

Over the weekend, Victor Conte, the former head of BALCO and a name forever associated with steroids, estimated at least 50% of players still use enhancers.  Should he be right, the introduction of stringent testing has not dented the use of steroids in baseball.  What Conte doesn’t acknowledge is four players this season have tested positive, more than the last two seasons combined, so the system clearly has some benefits and must be improving.  But, Cabrera’s test has revived the debate about testing, administered by baseball during the season but not in any kind of random manner.  A 50-game suspension without pay can equate to a lot for the average ballplayer, and given that only two folks ever got caught twice, the incentive structure works for the current testing model.  Undoubtedly, if baseball and the players’ union could somehow agree to random testing, more players would test positive, but that likely will not happen anytime soon.  For now, while cheating is still cheating, the only revision would be to increase the first-time suspension from 50 games to a harsher penalty.  And that make sense…players will not stop using drugs without a huge deterrent.  While 50 games might be a lot, Cabrera can still win the NL Batting Title this season, so loopholes exist for the suspension to matter not at all from a statistical standpoint.  Baseball should make the first time penalty 100 games to really send a message to cheaters that they will lose a season in every real sense of the word.

Bit #2: Notre Dame Futility

Rick Reilly wrote an article this week begging for Notre Dame to be relegated from the ranks of college football’s “top” programs on account of its poor play in the last fifteen years.  Reilly bemoans the special privileges given to Notre Dame through the BCS, NBC broadcasts, and preseason rankings.

And he’s right, to a certain extent.  Notre Dame undeservedly receives those benefits, but Reilly acts as if the university deserves the blame.  Last I checked, the BCS and NBC make decisions to give Notre Dame special preference.  Notre Dame might be guilty of arrogance but they do not decide NBC revenues and BCS policies.  As for their conference alignment, the days of Notre Dame as an independent will end soon.  Their recruiting classes do not compare to those of the 80s for one, but also do you expect NBC to continue the Notre Dame broadcasts?  NBC’s broadcasts bring in less than half the viewership of games on ABC and CBS, so eventually Notre Dame will either need to play better or lose their precious TV revenue, meaning conferences will come into play for purely financial reasons.

Not to insult Domers out there either, but any consternation at the article should be tempered with a realization the team has not beaten anyone of national significance in the last ten years (Navy and Army don’t count).  While it might seem unfair to a storied football program, expectations for Notre Dame need to deflate.  And that means for everyone; fans and media, to understand South Bend isn’t what it once was and will need some time to re-create the magic.

Bit #3: BoSox have no one to blame but themselves

The Bobby Valentine soap opera continued in Boston this week, as the text message that started a players-only meeting with ownership last month again reared an ugly head.  Rumors now put Kelly Shoppach, a former Red Sox catcher, behind the meeting’s origin.  Many in the sports media world are following this story, the main reason being the scurrilous details emanating from Red Sox games.  Bobby V never seems to have any other coach or player talking to him, a marked difference between him and managers like Joe Girardi of the Yankees or Ron Washington of the Rangers.  He looks to be on his own in that organization, figuratively and literally.  Players might be on the verge of open revolt.

Which is exactly what the ownership signed up for…the worst aspect of this story are the modified expectations for how Valentine would run the clubhouse.  He entered Boston not as a player’s coach but as something of a disciplinarian who could fix the laxity of the Boston clubhouse spewed over TV last September.  Did everyone expect the team to enjoy his personality?  If that was a key concern, Francona never should have been fired.  The Red Sox are reaping what they sowed a while ago, and it’s a little unfair to expect Bobby V to inherit a disinterested team and then make everything hunky-dory.  At the same time, he is responsible for the record and if the team was winning the clubhouse atmosphere would definitely be different.  But the Red Sox need to understand the problems they faced in September and why they picked Valentine to lead this group.  From the sounds of it, he shouldn’t have been hired in the first place.