What's Wrong with the Caps

I’ve neglected many topics this year, not the least of which is my boys in red.  The Caps, for those who have not been following, are 23-21-8, which puts them a terrible seventh in the Metropolitan division.  If there’s a saving grace to that prior sentence, it’s that there is a five-point differential between the second place and seventh place team in the division.  In short, anything can happen.

But, I think a bold prediction is necessary here.  Without getting too teary-eyed, I don’t think the Caps will make the playoffs.  There are too many problems, many of which have been exposed during the most recent losing skid.

First off, the goaltending has not been there.  The two top guys, Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth, are a combined 17-17-3.  Each of them boasts a goals-against-average over 2.75, meaning they are 50^th and 48^th in that category across the NHL.  Up until this past Saturday, Braden Holtby had not won a game since December 7^th, and this from a guy who some thought before the season had a chance to make Canada’s Olympic roster.  Philip Grubauer provided a much-needed spark, as he looked great in his first six games, only to drive off the statistical deep, eventually being sent back to Hershey with a pat on the back.  He’ll be back, but there’s no doubt he was unable to hold up this season.

Goaltending woes are nothing new for this city.  We have seen flashes in the pan many times and are by now totally desensitized to the great young goalie no longer playing that “great.”  That Semyon Varlamov is being mentioned in Vezina discussions might be further evidence of a goalie curse being inflicted on DC.  But, this group needs to get better.  Many pundits thought Neuvirth might make good trade bait going forward, but at this point we’d be lucky to catch a few wins using him.  I think Holtby needs to step up and take this job.  He stopped all 21 shots on Saturday, and that needs to continue.

So, the goalies stink.  But the other big problem…defense.  Again, nothing new, but this is bad enough to demand a firing.  The Caps certainly don’t pass the eye test when it comes to defense, but the advanced stats back me up.  Of all the shots in Caps games, only 47.6% are taken by the Caps.  That’s 25^th in the league, with the rung beneath them the Who’s Who of an NHL Fail Blog from the past few years (Sabres, Oilers, and Flames to name a few).  Once Jack Hillen went down with an injury, the blue line became something of a revolving door.  Connor Carrick, Tyson Strachan, Nate Schmidt, and Alexander Urbom have all seen playing time this year.  Don’t know who they are?…that’s alright, neither do I.

They are all young, certainly.  All inexperienced and looking for a home when it comes to the NHL.  The downside is growing pains.  I do think Carrick and Schmidt, not to mention Dmitry Orlov who played last season, might actually be able to start next year, so this bodes well for the future.  But, the Caps need a makeover on defense.  Mike Green, despite the accolades he received a few years ago, has not been the same since his groin injury last year.  He’s got a minus-12 rating this season with only five goals, yet still receives almost twenty minutes each night.  I’m not an NHL coach nor am I an “expert,” but for a dude who used to score almost 20 goals a season, he clearly isn’t living up to the billing.  My personal opinion would be to demote Green down the roster and let John Carlson take a greater role.

Coach Oates has recently said that young, speedy D-men will create the style of play the Caps need.  It’s tough to argue with that, but clearly there is a lack of reliable depth on the blue line.  And that’s a roster problem, one George McPhee has decidedly avoided for at least the past four years.  McPhee traded a reliable defenseman in Dennis Wideman in 2012 for peanuts, and has done nothing to replace that kind of veteran presence.  This year it isn’t worth bringing in a rental guy, but over the offseason McPhee needs to make a strong move to bring in a veteran D-man who can shore up the poor play by rookies and Mike Green.

One thing I can say: Adam Oates is not the problem.  The dull murmur that maybe Oates wasn’t the right fit has not been borne out.  First, this is his first full season with the team, so I’m prepared to give the guy a little time to sort it all out.  In addition, he continues to spark the offense with his scheme.  Moving Alex Ovechkin to the right wing has seen Ovie revitalize his game to the offensive juggernaut that drove the Caps during the past decade.  In addition, Oates has taken advantage of prodigious offensive talent through the power play, which currently ranks fourth in the entire league (though the Caps are 4-for-38 on the PP during their recent skid).  The team’s goals per game is solidly average and above many Metropolitan rivals.  Offensively speaking, the team doesn’t have much wrong with it.  This is a defensive and goaltending problem, further evidence that the Caps seem unable to find a consistent identity going forward.

Overall, Washington has not done well this year.  Undoubtedly they have underachieved and been stuck in many ruts at different points of the season. I fully expect the Caps to miss the playoffs, as Carolina, Philly, Columbus, and the Rangers have all made serious strides in the division.  The goaltending in particular has been too inconsistent and when the defense has been this bad, a good goalie makes the difference.  If the Caps don’t make the postseason, I think George McPhee needs to be fired.  Knowing DC, he will win a Cup somewhere else, but he has done nothing with a talented roster in the last eight years since Ovechkin arrived.  He has been the GM for almost 16 years, and he’s reached the end of his shelf life.  The struggle for an identity can be laid at his feet, and not without cause.  GMGM has made many moves, very few of which have worked for long-term playoff success.

The Caps are suffering and I think the season is perilously close to being lost.  Might be premature, but things have gone so poorly this year, I have to wonder where this team goes for their next proposed solution.  Regardless, the defense and goaltending (and the roster building) need to be better and, concurrent with that, the team should go all in on an identity.  Without that, we’ll continue to wallow in the wilderness.

Let's See How This Goes

I realize it’s been a while, but a vacation to the Caribbean and Christmas will do that to you.  Not to mention the grind surrounding my day-to-day job, for which I am actually paid.

On Thursday, the Redskins announced they would hire Jay Gruden, formerly the offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals, as the new head coach.  The hire marks something of a departure from the usual modus operandi in DC; Dan Snyder usually prefers either the well-established name or the young upstart (Jim Zorn anyone?).  On the face of it, he struck the perfect balance here.  Gruden joined Cincy in 2011 as an offensive coach after stints in the semi-pro ranks.  He’s won two Arena Bowls as a head coach, and also served as a head coach in the short-lived United Football League.

I will admit that I am not as bullish on this hire as others might.  Clearly, the intent is to bring a guy who can work with RGIII in a new-fangled offense.  The thinking goes that since a lower talent like Dalton did so well in the offense, Griffin should be otherworldly.  Makes sense, but Gruden doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence just yet.  Andy Dalton has improved remarkably in each season under Gruden’s tutelage, but it’s hard to think favorably of that team after the lackluster second half against San Diego last Sunday.  I made the serious mistake of planning to watch that game with friends…better entertainment value could have been found on Fox News that day.  Gruden’s scheme has brought regular season results, but in the postseason there appears to be nothing special.  I will add that while Dalton’s production has increased each season, so has his interception total.

Perhaps a greater concern is what Gruden will do with the running game.  We can say what we want about Mike Shanahan, but the man knew how to architect a solid running attack.  For me, that’s the biggest question.  The great 2012 season featured RGIII glory, but the play action game starts with the potency of Alfred Morris.  BenJarvus Green-Ellis did rush for over 1000 yards last year, and Giovani Bernard has been electrifying this year, so I think there’s cause for optimism.  Finally, Sean McVay will be staying on, which will help with easing RGIII into a new offense.

That’s all on the offensive side of the ball, but defensively I don’t think this hire will do much.  One development likely to occur: the defensive regime may stay the same.  Raheem Morris and Gruden worked together in Tampa Bay (along with GM Bruce Allen, who needs to finally start making personnel decisions). That’s a red flag.  Yes, the defensive secondary had no talent, but Morris did absolutely nothing as the defensive backs coach.  Defensive coordinator Jim Haslett worked with Gruden in the UFL, but hasn’t done much of anything in the past two seasons.  He's never been above 21^st in points allowed since taking over the Washington D.  Maybe regaining some cap space will help them, but I think Gruden needs to clean house on that side of the ball.  These guys stink and, barring some unseen resurgence, the defense will still be bad next year.  The only consolation: maybe the new offensive scheme keeps the offense on the field more in games.

All of that being said, I will rate this hire as “good, not great.”  We may have a great offense going forward, but it strikes me as an attempt to recreate the Tampa Bay teams of old, just without Monte Kiffin, who really created the strength of those units on defense.  I’m certainly not advocating for a defensive head coach, but the franchise needs a real reboot, not an homage to bygone eras.

Above all, Gruden needs time to build a roster and get the team going again.  If this is another quick two-year hook, we are all in trouble.

[Update]: After looking further at the numbers and hearing what others say, my criticism of Raheem Morris isn't really fair.  He was the DB coach for the great Tampa teams and he has no say in who the defensive backs are on this roster.  With any luck, that unit will improve through increased cap space and better players.

Bit #1: Picks for the playoffs

I went 0-4 on Wild Card weekend, a true shame on my and my family’s name.  So, I figured I’d actually put my picks down here since clearly, I’m good at this:

Broncos over Chargers

Denver fans I know are treating the Chargers like the ’99 Rams, and I’m not sure why.  They’ve won six straight, one of those at Denver, but this defense has given up the 23^rd most yards on defense.  Plus, do we think Peyton isn’t gonna be in the film room all week for these guys?

Patriots over Colts

Yeah, I’m not going into the underdogs here, mainly because the Colts’ effort last week was so superhuman that a let-down is almost a foregone conclusion.  The Pats certainly hope Alfonzo Dennard is available, and the loss of Brandon Spikes will create problems, but I don’t see much ability for the Colts to surprise anyone.  We all know they need to be taken seriously, so this should be competitive.  But, give Brady a rest week and this organization’s ability to plan, and they will take care of business.

Broncos over Patriots

Pats fans will tell you about how they know how to beat Peyton.  No doubt, but New England went 4-4 on the road this year and three of those victories were by a combined 12 points.  Manning has the superior team, and it will show.

Seahawks over Saints

This will be a closer game, but it’s tough to look at the swan dive New Orleans has done over the latter part of the season (2-3 from Week 12 on) and feel confident they can win in the toughest environment.  Also, rain is expected, and I don’t trust New Orleans in the rain.

49ers over Panthers

Cam has played so well this year, and that defense will be humming, but there’s no reason to discount Kaepernick and San Fran in this game.  San Francisco has been here before, whereas the Panthers are in uncharted territory and, while Ron Rivera has vastly improved, he’s definitely not the superior coach to Jim Harbaugh.

Seahawks over 49ers

I know, the top two teams have only met once in the Super Bowl in the last few years.  Whatever.  Keapernick and San Fran have a block about winning in Seattle.  Their offense sags there, and the defense definitely isn’t as good.  On their own field the 49ers needed a late field goal to beat Seattle.  The Seahawks are just a better team and, if they can keep Kaepernick under wraps, the defense and Marshawn Lynch will bring them to the big game.

We’ll see where this all goes, but in the Broncos-Seahawks, I’d pick Seattle close, as its too difficult to trust the Denver defense to actually keep Russell Wilson in check.  If we assume Peyton struggles with the Legion of Boom, it means the game rests on whether Denver's D can get off the field.  That could be a great game.