Mis-managing a World Series Contender

It’s no secret the Nationals have been a major disappointment this season.  At no point preseason did anyone expect the New York Mets to achieve a divisional crown.  Hindsight is 20/20.

What is also 20/20 is how baseball managers are evaluated.  While there are odds that must be considered, fans consider managers purely on whether (you’ve heard this before) “they press the right buttons.”  For example, a manager who takes out his starter, only to have the reliever give up a game-tying homer, usually is assailed for not sticking with his guy.  If the homer had come off the starter, however, the manager looks too eager to bring out the hook.

Matt Williams has experienced that a lot this season, especially as the season progressed.  Sympathy abounds for the guy, who never was able to get it right (for sure when it comes to the bullpen), but Williams was most frustrating in his postgame attitude.  Always a polite guy, Williams never showed any of the fire that fans observe from Joe Girardi in New York, Joe Maddon in Chicago, or Ozzie Guillen of the mid-2000s White Sox.  After his team blew a massive lead against the Mets, Williams discussed how his job was to “support” the players in the locker room.  Admittedly, he needs to do that, but at some point a little irritation should creep into your voice when describing how four relievers threw 30 balls out of 55 pitches in one inning.

That there was none in that exact moment submarined my confidence in Williams.  Clearly he has some acumen, only one year removed from an NL Manager of the Year award.  Motivating grown men also can’t be easy.  Blowing a huge lead in that moment, however, demands a “supportive” tongue-lashing.  Kind of like Kurt Russell as Herb Brooks does in Miracle during a lackluster effort against Sweden.  Anyone envision Williams doing something like that?

Today’s nonsense is further proof that Williams needs a new job.  After Jonathan Papelbon escalated a scuffle with Bryce Harper, he was sent out to pitch the 9^th inning.  When asked about why he let Pap go out there, the response was “he’s our closer.”

Yup, he is.  He also just went after your best player, and made initial physical contact.  Are you seriously telling fans that you will bench Harper for not running hard enough (as happened last year), but you won’t send a guy to the showers for starting a needless and unnecessary fistfight with your franchise’s foundational player?

(Brief aside: Papelbon should be released tomorrow.  His resume is impressive.  His attitude is not.  The Nats have given up 12.5 games in the standings since trading for him.  While that’s not entirely his fault, his on-field performance isn’t worth the headache.  If Huston Street had done this type of thing to Mike Trout, I doubt the Angels would have let him pitch the rest of the game.  To his credit, Papelbon did say afterwards that he was wrong to fight with Harper.  Nice sentiment from a headcase.)

Williams seems to have no sense of when to encourage and when to criticize.  That he seems unwilling or unable to protect the top player in the locker room is the nail in the coffin.  Fire him, and do it soon.

2015 NFL Predicted Finish

I know you are bombarded by several predictions on the Internet, but Dibbles and Bits did correctly pick six of the eight division winners last year (I whiffed hardcore on the NFC East – I had the Skins finishing second, and I didn’t see New Orleans poor play coming).

AFC East

1.      Patriots (11-5)

2.      Dolphins (9-7)

3.      Bills (8-8)

4.      Jets (8-8)

Had Brady not lost his suspension, New England remains the class of this division.  The defending champs may experience some pain in the secondary after losing Revis, and their schedule is brutal at the beginning, but the sky will not fall on them this year.

I’m a Tannehill believer, and Miami’s improved defense will help, though I think it won’t live up to the massive amount of preseason acclaim.  Still, 9-7 is possible for the Fins, particularly since they might be 5-2 to start the season.  Buffalo is starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, which should be all that needs to be said.  He will need to wildly exceed expectations to get this team to nine wins, even with a terrifying defense.

The Jets likely finish last, but I think a tie with Buffalo is very possible, assuming their new secondary remains healthy.  It is theoretically possible that Brandon Marshall returns to shining form at receiver, and maybe Chris Ivory makes other fantasy teams cry, but quarterback continues to fail them as a position. 

AFC North

1.      Ravens (10-6)

2.      Steelers (10-6)

3.      Bengals (8-8)

4.      Browns (6-10)

As usual, the AFC North is tough to judge.  Baltimore continues to look like the real formidable power in this division, and one can’t impugn their coaching staff over the past five seasons.  A similar roster ran the Patriots to the wire in last year’s playoffs.

As you can see, I think Pittsburgh has the offensive power to match Baltimore in record, but the teams are constructed very differently.  The Steelers did not maintain their traditional defensive prowess last season, and none of their current defensive players have proven to be anything special.  If Ryan Shazier or Jarvis Jones takes a step forward, it will matter for the playoffs.  Otherwise, I see Pittsburgh putting up a good record without any real teeth to their ten wins.

The oft-predicted Year of Dalton Failure will happen in 2015.  While Cincy has a great defense and brings a good running attack, I think in this tough a division the lack of a top quarterback talent will hurt their record immensely. 

Some pundits love the Browns, and they finished 7-9 last year.  But much of their success will depend on Josh McCown, especially given the tough couple of years for this crop of running backs.  In the end, a McCown-Manziel year at quarterback sounds like pushing through muck.

AFC South

1.      Colts (11-5)

2.      Texans (9-7)

3.      Jaguars (5-11)

4.      Titans (3-13)

While this will be the year that Houston wins a game in Indy, the Colts will have no problems here.  Andrew Luck returns with more offensive weapons and the defense has re-tooled a bit. 

Houston will be in the hunt for a while, but their final placement will depend on injuries.  If Arian Foster returns and does well, the team can easily do enough to win nine games.  Brian Hoyer also factors in…if he gets injured or doesn’t play well, should we trust a Texans offense run by Ryan Mallett?

I think despite some truly bad years, the Jags will fire coach Gus Bradley after this season.  Blake Bortles will need to settle in for his second year and perform to prevent his coach losing a job.  Much as Bortles shows good pocket ability, Jacksonville’s supporting cast remains so anemic that I don’t see more than five wins.  The Titans will be all about Marcus Mariota this year, and should be in the hunt for the NFL’s worst record.

AFC West

1.      Broncos (10-6)

2.      Chiefs (10-6)

3.      Chargers (7-9)

4.      Raiders (5-11)

Was the abysmal end to 2014 just a blip for Peyton, or the sign of things to come?  Regardless, his offensive line and new coach Gray Kubiak are potent enough for the offense to succeed even if Osweiler comes in midway through the season.  With some standouts as well at key positions on defense, Denver will win again.

I have to confess that I like the Chiefs a lot this year.  It’s not only the ridiculously talented defensive group (headlined by safety Eric Berry, who everyone should cheer for), but also the development of Travis Kelce at tight end.  Jamaal Charles is also still there, and I find it hard to believe Alex Smith won’t go to great lengths to build rapport with Jeremy Maclin. 

San Diego, however, is poised to miss the playoffs again.  Sure, Rivers can play and is now all locked up contractually, but the running game has large question marks this year, and will be primarily focused on developing Melvin Gordon.  While I expect Rivers to surprise the league with his performance after a rough 2014, the Bolts don’t have enough in this division.

As for Oakland, Latavius Murray will become a household name this season.  But otherwise, Derek Carr’s issues between the 20s will continue.

NFC East

1.      Eagles (11-5)

2.      Cowboys (10-6)

3.      Giants (8-8)

4.      Redskins (4-12)

DeMarco Murray’s switch will be the most important move this offseason, in that I think it will mean they finish first.  After 10-6 with Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez last year, a Bradford-Sanchez unit with a very improved running game can do better.  Plus they secondary, which killed Philly last year, has been upgraded.

That’s not to say Dallas will slouch too much in 2015.  Sean Lee returns, and the Cowboys brought in Greg Hardy and Randy Gregory to bolster the pass rush.  While their choice of running back will loom large, the O-line is good enough to block well.  If Tony Romo has the ability (like he did last season) to feed a running game, he will have another great year.

The Giants seem perpetually stuck in neutral right now.  Odell Beckham is great on the outside, but the Giants were not a good defensive team last year, and not much has changed.  As for the Redskins, this season will be terrible.  Kirk Cousins may have a flash of brilliance or two each game, but as long as he keeps throwing picks, 5 wins is the ceiling.

NFC North

1.      Packers (12-4)

2.      Lions (9-7)

3.      Vikings (9-7)

4.      Bears (6-10)

The Packers have been so consistent that it feels weird to not pick them, even after losing Jordy Nelson.  Aaron Rodgers remains his prodigious self, and the Pack might be able to make the Super Bowl this year.

The Lions need a running attack, and Ameer Abdullah may prove to be the answer.  Pairing him with Joique Bell could make for a nice two-headed attack.  I think Detroit will fall short of the division win, however, because the back of the defense remains fairly fluid.  The addition of Haloti Ngata will help replace Ndamukong Suh, but Detroit will need to outscore opponents to win.  That’s tough to do consistently.

The Vikings should be a great bet to rise this season.  Teddy B under center showed promise last year, and anything except a really bad sophomore slump will make for an acceptable season.  Adrian Peterson also returns, so there’s that.

The Bears are lovable, and yet they can’t live up to this division right now.  If Kyle Fuller takes a good step in development, that will be great news for last year’s third-worst pass defense.  Otherwise, this is likely the last year for Cutler in Chicago. 

NFC South

1.      Falcons (9-7)

2.      Panthers (7-9)

3.      Saints (7-9)

4.      Bucs (5-11)

One year removed from a 7-8-1 division winner, the NFC South remains the worst in football for my money.  A 9-7 division champ looks likely here, and even that might be generous.

The Falcons were abysmal on defense last year, so much so that they have to be trending upwards, especially after bringing in Dan Quinn to be the new head coach.  That said, another Julio Jones injury could tank the Falcons, and no one has any idea who will be their premier running back.

The Panthers had difficulty scoring last year, which will be exacerbated now that Kelvin Benjamin is out.  On defense, they remain very strong in a division with little to no defensive ability, so if Cam Newton can make up for Benjamin’s absence, there might be hope.

The Saints are going in the wrong direction.  Drew Brees can only do so much after losing several key players due to cap concerns, one of whom happened to be his red zone weapon in Jimmy Graham.  He can only do so much.

The Bucs are a trendy team to do well, and a 7-9 record is very possible.  There are too many holes to fill, however, and I think Tampa ends the season feeling good about Jameis Winston.

NFC West

1.      Seahawks (10-6)

2.      Cardinals (8-8)

3.      Rams (7-9)

4.      49ers (3-13)

Seattle is due for a step back at some point soon, and this year could be when it happens.  But I still think they take the division regardless, primarily because the quarterback play is consistent there and the defense is still formidable.  The holdout of Kam Chancellor, however, will impact this team’s early games, though I expect he will be resigned before too long.

The Cardinals have many of the pieces, but given the injury history of Carson Palmer and Andre Ellington, it would be a mistake to pick them to finish above .500.  After consistently rising above 20 points per game with Palmer, the team didn’t; achieve that without him once, and backed into the playoffs.

Remember that comment about quarterbacks?  Well, the Rams will need Nick Foles to prove he isn’t just a Kelly guy.  I think a losing record is in the cards, however, because even with a tough defense the Rams have a patchy O-line and a still unfounded running game.  Not to mention the scarcity at receiver, and this team will win by defense.

San Fran is going to be bad this year.  Too much turnover, and way too many questions on defense.  I think, however, that Jim Harbaugh’s absence will be felt too in the locker room.  That can’t be proven, of course, but the guy ran a tight ship and resuscitated the Niners quickly after he took over.