A Smart NFL Rule Change

It has become something of a pastime to bash the new rules of the NFL in recent years.  The head-targeting rules, the defenseless receiver rules, and the roughing the quarterback rules immediately come to mind.

The NFL, however, looks to be close to expanding its rules in a very specific way.  The Fritz Pollard Alliance, a group of NFL stakeholders that promotes diversity within the league, has proposed to the competition committee that referees hand out a 15-yard penalty for every use of the N-word on the field.  That’s for the first offense, and the second offense results in an ejection for that player.  These are exceptionally harsh penalties, but all signs point to the competition committee proposing this rule to the owners later this summer.

I’ve pondered the rule change for most of the last two days.  I will admit to being immediately skeptical of any new NFL regulation.  I am also somewhat suspicious of any attempt by anybody to police the words said in the workplace, because that certainly may lead down some unseemly roads, such as eliminating “your momma” jokes or even political statements of any kind.

That said, this new proposed rule is a good idea.  The N-word, while used more often than folks like to admit, is universally reviled.  On a weekend drive today, a radio host discussing this topic grew very uncomfortable when he thought a caller had said the N-word, when in truth the guy had just said “ninja.”  Riley Cooper’s incident last offseason when he used the word while yelling at concert security guards certainly did not increase his favorability ratings, and the resulting media storm made it tough to watch his 2013 season without thinking back to a poorly-chosen moment to be insensitive.  Watch the recent film 42 and the scene in which an opposing manager lampoons Jackie Robinson from the bench, using the N-word several times, will make your skin crawl, regardless of race.

And yet, the N-word has some serious cultural staying-power.  Many hip hop artists use the word in their songs, some lavishly so.  They may not be at the forefront of people’s minds, but some less than admirable organizations still exist that use the word constantly.

It is possible to make the argument that the N-word, with such widespread use, is almost unenforceable.  Some may say the NFL is getting too aggressive, as greater societal change is not going to necessarily happen because one sports league has decided to penalize one word.  For example, the NBA’s fine of Kobe Bryant in 2011 for calling a referee a “word-meaning gay person” likely did not stop people on the streets from using the word.  Amazingly, the N-word can still be said on radio broadcasts under FCC rules.

I tend to agree with the argument that you can’t really enforce against people saying a word in their privacy, and truthfully, you shouldn’t.  But let’s not conflate that argument with the idea that a private employer cannot penalize its employees for words spoken at work.  How many of you could go into work on Monday hollering the N-bomb and still have a job by the end of the week?  Not many.  In this instance, we are not discussing FCC regulations or some large governmental program…the NFL’s workplace is on the field, and this rule acts as a huge discouragement against using a word that, for the most part, most Americans can’t say at work.  Anyone has the right to use the word, but that right does not extend to an absolution of the consequences.

In addition, the NFL has for a long time penalized bad language.  Last year, official Roy Ellison was suspended for one game after the NFL deemed he had directed a profane and derogatory statement” at Williams.  The unsportsmanlike conduct penalty can include a penalty on the coach of an NFL team for using the magic words to a ref (watch any mic’d up tape of Jon Gruden as coach and you’ll see it takes a lot to get that flag, but it happens).  The NFL has accepted the premise, like most other leagues, that not all language is acceptable in the field of play.

The N-word is, I think, an unacceptable word, because it links African-Americans with the evil of slavery.  The historical considerations about slavery do not interest me in this case…the ownership of other persons is, decidedly, wrong, by any standard imaginable.  A word, expression, colloquialism, or euphemism that might potentially be linked to the violence and shame exacted on blacks in that period should be eradicated as much as possible.  I can truly think of no other word still in use today that can link directly to violence or slavery.  Some words may certainly put down respective groups, but none of those in common usage link to violence in the same way the N-word does. (Please note: I am not an anthropologist or etymologist, so this may not be a scholarly discussion of what the word actually means.  Still, any research I’ve looked at shows the term as originating in a derogatory fashion.)

For those who are, I’m sure, thinking on hip hop artists, the N-word is unacceptable even from a solidarity standpoint.  One reason this rule makes sense is that the Fritz Pollard Alliance, primarily composed of black NFLers, proposed the rule to the competition committee.  They are aware that the N-word is disrespectful, and are also against its use.  While there are many other black leaders and individuals who will assuredly have a different opinion, I am willing to jump on board a rule change promulgated by those black individuals who have played or been around the league for years.

I would, however, caution the NFL about this course of action.  It is possible perhaps to over-police and there should be some kind of standard that the league uses in the future.  For instance, I would not support a penalty on every use of the F-word or other similarly profane four letter words.  No one expects these guys to play football like daisies, saying please and thank you every time a tackle is made.  The N-word, however, has a deeper meaning than any normal cuss word.  In addition, unlike other words currently being discussed in the NFL arena, black people are universally offended by its use, so the league is not making up that the word is offensive.

For these reasons, I will get on board with this proposed penalty.  I would suggest a slight tweak that will ease the NFL into this type of rule, since it will likely be very hard for players to avoid its use in the heat of the game right away.  But, given that, the intent is to eliminate a vile word.  In addition, this new rule will not change the nature of the game, unlike the targeting rules or the “baby-the quarterback” shenanigans.  People will hit and run just as hard without the N-word in play as they have up to now.  If the game remains unchanged and the penalty strongly discourages the N-word, it’s something to support.

Slowing to Stupidity

On March 6, the NCAA’s Playing Rules Oversight What-Have-You body will consider a proposed rule that would slow down up-tempo offenses.  Under the proposal, the ball would not be snapped anytime before 29 seconds are left on the play clock.  This will allow the defense to substitute players, which in turn allows the NCAA to tout the “student-athlete” safety improvements that will be put in place by this rule.

Safety continues to be the rallying cry for some truly idiotic ideas in sports.  Before the Super Bowl, Roger Goodell floated the idea that the NFL eliminate the extra point, because too many players were getting injured on what amounts to an automatic, decidedly uninteresting play.  Ask Tony Romo about the automatic part and see what happens.  The same philosophy undergirds this new batch of ridiculousness.

First, football runs on a clock.  When considering the clock, the team that has the ball is able to dictate the pace of play.  Whether an offense created a turnover or took the ball off a kickoff they have possession.  Which allows the offense to move the ball at whatever speed they want.  Players in soccer, basketball, or hockey do not wait for defenders to have their ideal lineup before moving the ball.  There’s no earthly reason why football should allow a defense to dictate that pace.  Sure, football is not a fluid sport that is constantly moving, so there might be some strategy involved, but it all still boils down to “keep the ball away from the other guy…oh, and take advantage of his weaknesses if we can.”  The proposed rule would allow the defense an unbelievable amount of sway over the game’s pace of play.

To be clear, the rules don’t allow full offensive right of way.  After all, there are play clocks in football and shot clocks in basketball.  Limitations exist, but the proposed rule change would be akin to telling a basketball team that they cannot take shots before the 20-second mark of the shot clock.  Is the intent different?  Yes, because basketball teams can’t sub on the fly.  But the effect is the same…stifling offenses when they might otherwise exploit a defense for some quick points. 

If such a rule were to come into effect, it changes the competitive landscape.  Do we think Oregon, which averages one play per 14 seconds or something like that, would be as successful if they had to wait for the right defense to be on the field?  I don’t care about intentions and neither should you.  The action is what counts, and in this instance, fast-paced offenses will be, in effect, amputated of a very serious advantage over other teams.

As for safety, there won’t be an appreciable improvement, or even much of a difference.  Maybe more winded players are taken off the field, but the flip side of this type of rule is that fast-paced offenses will emphasize conditioning on the part of defensive regimes.  They will work to make their guys as fit as possible.  In addition, it’s not as if fast-paced offenses only affect those guys on the defensive side.  Up-tempo offensive coaches know O-linemen get fatigued running up and down the field between plays just as much as the defensive end across from them.  And yet, Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State and Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech continue to push the up-tempo scheme, as does Kevin Sumlin at Texas A&M.  These coaches are aware of the strain the tempo puts on their players, and yet they continue to defend it.

In the end, the safety excuse is flimsy at best.  So, I am inclined to wonder what the motivation of the rule might be.  Is it safety, or is it muzzling no-huddle offenses?  Regardless of intent, the effect will be one that changes college football unnecessarily, and sports fans everywhere should refuse to support such stupidity.

Bit #1: Olympic Hockey

I picked Sweden to win it all, and right now that doesn’t look like a great decision.  Sure, they won all three first round games and tomorrow will play Slovenia, but the Swedes have generally disappointed.  A 1-0 win over the Swiss and a close 5-3 victory over Latvia are not especially heartening for their performance going forward.  With Henrik Zetterberg going down to injury, I’m not especially confident the Swedes will make the gold medal game.

On the bottom of the bracket, the U.S. has been by far the most impressive team.  Phil Kessel has four goals and Ryan McDonagh on defense has been by far the best D-man for the U.S. thus far.  In addition, Ryan Callahan amazed me during the game against Russia with his play, as he saved a goal singlehandedly on a juicy rebound.  Goaltending has been as good as advertised.

For everyone else, it’s tough not to salivate at the Finland-Russia matchup tomorrow.  Russia has obviously won, but they have yet to turn in a truly convincing victory.  The Finns, on the other hand, have been amazingly consistent.  Kari Lehtonen played well in his one start against Norway, and Tuukka Rask has only a .872 save percentage.  Still, the Finns played Canada close, so expect them to give Russia a hard time, with a good shot to win.

Bit #2: Clearly, there are bigger problems in the NFL

The media attention towards Michael Sam’s recent announcement regarding his sexuality has started a conversation about the NFL culture.  But, in truth, I don’t think that part of NFL culture is really something worth overdoing…in a recent survey, 86 percent of respondents said they’d be alright with a gay teammate.

Point being, the media hoopla will subside, but I don’t think homophobia is truly the problem in the NFL.  Much bigger are harassment and, dare I say it, perversion.  For the first, we’ve seen this week how the Dolphins players ganged up on Jonathan Martin.  Look, it’s easy to dismiss Martin as being hyper-sensitive, and there may even be some justification for that.  But, regardless, the Wells Report also details Martin being subjugated to sexual comments about his mother and sister.  If a guy responded angrily to that kind of ribbing, especially if it’s consistent, it’s tough to call him a cry baby.

Of bigger concern, however, is the recent news regarding Darren Sharper.  A guy known for being the hardest-hitting safety in the league when he played, Sharper had a great analyst job with the NFL Network.  Sharper was arrested in January in connection with two potential rapes, and was the subject of a third sexual assault investigation in New Orleans, where he used to play. But of particular odiousness is the alleged method by which Sharper raped women, using drugs and alcohol before raping them.

Sharper is obviously responsible for his own behavior, rather than his teams, but let’s be real here.  In the NFL locker room, I find it hard to believe there is a big emphasis on respect for women.  You’re right, I’ve never played, but if players are still throwing the N-word around willy-nilly, it seems a fair assumption the attitude towards women might be similarly inappropriate.  That the media wishes to focus on the potential first openly gay NFLer makes sense from a ratings standpoint, but in trying to identify problems in sports the real issue is in the culture.  That Michael Sam is gay will certainly make waves, by the NFL’s reaction to his announcement from a draft and playing time standpoint will be the true test of the league’s culture.  All that said, we have two examples where the NFL culture has clearly become a laughing stock, a bastion for some men of questionable ethics and character.  The media should focus on those examples, rather than speculate as to how Michael Sam will be received.  Survey says that question has been answered already.

Olympic Hockey Preview

Olympic hockey has no peer.  Playing at the highest level for your country with the chance of the sweet gold at the end.  From a fan’s perspective, it’s akin to an All-Star Game played on a slightly bigger rink with checking and actual puck possession.  NHL players have been allowed at the Olympics since 1998 in Nagano, and the tournament has benefited immensely from their inclusion.  There is however a notable difference: a physical game is not necessary to succeed.  Unlike the NHL postseason, IIHF referees are quick to blow the whistle.  No fighting is allowed and checking, while present, can be somewhat muted in comparison to the NHL.

That said, the competition is across the board awesome.  It doesn’t shock me that no event better epitomizes Olympic glory than the Miracle on Ice.  Being one of two fully team sports (bobsled being the other), hockey brings together more of the world’s best than any other winter Olympic sport out there.  Roster size is a great thing clearly.

But, in order to watch, you have to know what the teams are like.  Read on, and you’ll know.  Please note I am not discussing women’s hockey, as I know nothing on that front.

The men’s tournament features three groups with four teams.  Each team plays a round-robin format.  At the end of those games, all group winners (decided by points like the NHL) and the best second-place team receive first round byes in the elimination round.  The remaining eight teams play a preliminary round, meaning when all is said and done we have eight teams in the quarterfinals.

Rather than do groups, I’ll split the teams up into classes:

Wait, before that, I want to ensure everyone knows I’m a cultural chauvinist when it comes to hockey.  People get unduly offended when the media ascribes the “World Champion” label to whoever wins the American league in any sport.  Sure, they don’t play every team in the world, but the level of play is radically higher in the NHL than anywhere else.  I would support an annual NHL-KHL (Russia) tilt, but I think the NHL would win 90% of the time.  All this is to say, that the players without an NHL-laden roster will not have a chance in this tournament, and my predictions are driven as such.

Snowball’s Chance in “H-E-double hockey sticks”

Only one of the following teams will make the quarterfinals barring some big collapse by one of the more established squads.  But, the podium is likely out of the question.

Austria

The Austrians haven’t competed since Salt Lake City in 2002, where they finished twelfth.  The premier draw here is Thomas Vanek, the longtime Buffalo Sabre who has topped 30 goals four times in his NHL career.  Besides him, Michael Grabner might come away with a cool play or two, as he can move around the ice at quite the clip.  Otherwise there isn’t much notable about this team, except for the two guys who play for a hockey club called Red Bull Salzburg.  Sweet.

Latvia

Latvia typically is the team you love beating in video games.  They have qualified for the Olympics three times since 1998, but have never made it to the quarterfinals.  That likely won’t change this year, with only one NHLer on the roster.  This will, however, be the last chance for American audiences to see Sandis Ozolins, who backstopped the Colorado Avalanche to a 1996 Cup and at one time finished third in the voting for best NHL defenseman.  He was once a great and was the most recognizable Latvian player.  The team will benefit from an experienced coach, as Ted Nolan, currently the coach in Buffalo, will be behind the bench.

Norway

This team finished tenth in Vancouver, and boasts some more animate objects to hockey trivia.  Mats Zuccarello, a scrappy player for the Rangers, is the only guy currently playing in the NHL right now, but Patrick Thoresen was the leading scorer for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL last year.  It’s amazing looking at how nationalities seem to matter so much in hockey: the Norwegians have never medaled, whereas their Scandinavian kin in Sweden and Finland have medaled ten times combined.  Still, look for Zuccarello to play well, as he will be the focal point of the offense along with Thoresen.

Slovenia

Slovenia has never qualified for the Olympics until now.  Anze Kopitar was a Cup winner with Los Angeles and is absurdly underrated.  But, the only other guy with NHL experience on this roster is Jan Mursak, who also scored five goals in the 2010 World Championships and has excelled in the Slovenian league.  Unfortunately, that’s equivalent to being valedictorian of summer school, and he has shown nothing against higher competition.

 Switzerland

Definitely the best for last of this group, and this team has been a tough out. The Swiss finished sixth in Torino and eighth in Vancouver, but they left some destruction in their wake.In ’06 the Swiss beat Canada 2-0 in the group stage and forced a Canadian shootout victory in 2010.  Two close losses to the U.S. in 2010 adds up to a profile of a tough team with the potential to upset the right opponent and reach the semifinals.

This team will run from the blueline.  Mark Streit is a former NHL captain who has always been known for his offense and will set the leadership tone.  Roman Josi is the partner for Ryan Suter in Nashville, meaning he plays against the best in all situations.  Raphael Diaz has also contributed solidly for Montreal this season, and again brings speed out of the defensive zone.

At forward, there isn’t much.  Damien Brunner found some success in Detroit but just recently moved to the Devils.  Some see the Swiss with a few offensive weapons, but most are unknown quantities.  The goaltending is definitely the best of this group, as Jonas Hiller has, at points in his NHL career, looked elite.  He is a better goalie than those featured on some of the teams above the Swiss from a talent perspective.  If he plays well, Hiller could conceivably carry Switzerland to a surprise top-four finish.

The Podium Would Be Nice

These are the teams that have a sniff at the podium.  Russia may be a guarantee, but for them any medal showing would be a huge confidence boost.

Slovakia

A surprising fourth-place finish in 2010 put the Slovaks on the proverbial map.  They’ve always had top talent in key places but have never reached the stratoshphere occupied by their competitors.  Sadly, this year may not be much better.  Eleven of the 25 roster spots are currently filled by Euro league players, meaning a big effort will be needed to beat more talented squads.

The forwards provide some intriguing storylines.  Pavol Demitra was a longtime NHLer who provided great passing in 2010, but he died in the KHL plane crash just one year later.  Into his position is Michal Handzus, who is a Cup winner with Chicago.  Handzus will have Marion and Marcel Hossa as his bookends.  The older Hossa is a household name by now and has been a potent scorer for about a decade.  Marcel played some in the NHL, but has put in good performances at home in Slovakia.

The news yesterday, however, that Marion Gaborik will not make the trip could really sink Slovakian chances.  He has been on the downturn in recent years, but Gaborik adds depth scoring that may be needed.  Tomas Kopecky, also a Cup winner with Chicago in 2010, will add experience, and Thomas Tatar has put it a great season in Detroit.  After that, it’s tough to see where this team will look.

The biggest player is Zdeno Chara, likely the best D-man in the NHL right now.  He’s 6’9” and carries a cannon for a slap shot.  The rest of the blue line is good as well, as Andrej Sekera and Andrej Meszaros will be a great second pairing with the combined bruise from Meszaros and the offense from Sekera.  Lubomir Visnovksy has been a staple on this team for years, but his concussion problems make him doubtful at this point.

All the pressure will come on Jaroslav Halak.  As one of St. Louis’ goalies this year, he has a 24-8-4 record.  His real strength could be the ability to get hot at the right time…I still remember his dominance against the Caps in the 2010 playoffs.  If he plays as well as he has been, the Slovaks could have a chance to make some noise.

Czech Republic

One has to wonder what a combined Czechoslovakian team would look like.  Alas, politics gets in the way of sports fun, but either way it’s clear the split in the early 90s helped the Czechs.  They won gold in Nagano (behind the best Olympic performance by a goalie ever) and bronze in Torino, but finished a lowly seventh in 2010.

This year’s team has some strange dynamics, and if they lose many will wonder what could have been.  From a strength perspective, the first three lines are fairly money.  Jaromir Jagr can still play, Patrick Elias brings added leadership, David Krejci is an underrated player with a great two-way game, and Jakub Voracek has been known to get hot in Philly.

But, the team has made some strange inclusions, namely leaving Radim Vrbata at home.  He has 37 points this season.  Jiri Hudler of Detroit also was left off the roster, despite 43 points.  This is all to make way for Petr Nedved, a former NHLer best remembered for an unwarranted high rating in NHL ’98.  He’s a fun addition at age 42, but with him, Jagr, and Elias all on the same team, the Czechs might have durability issues.  I will add this team selected Martin Erat as an injury replacement even though he has scored one goal for the Caps in his 60+ Washington games.

Defense and goaltending also might be somewhat questionable.  The talent is not nearly as prodigious, and age is a factor.  Marek Zidlicky, Tomas Kaberle, and Michal Roszival are all over 35, whereas the team left Jakub Kindl from Detroit and Roman Polak from St. Louis off the roster.  I’ll be watching Zbynek Michalek, who has played well in points but has battled injuries.  He will be the main shutdown guy.  In goal, the pickings are incredibly slim.  Ondrej Pavelec might be the worst regular starting goalie in the NHL for Winnipeg (he’s given up the most goals of any goalie in the league this year).  Alexander Salak might be the starter here, as he’s backstopped SKA St. Petersburg very well this year, posting a 1.86 GAA and a .933 save percentage.  It’s hard to believe Michal Neuvirth asn’t chosen for this roster given his semi-strong play for the Caps.

I won’t lie, there looks to be no chance for this team given the talent elsewhere.  The fatal flaw in goal will be a problem and, while they may play some exciting games, the offense will need to score to eliminate goalie problems.  I don’t think it will happen.

Finland

The team that has medaled during three of the last four Olympics is the Finnish team.  That’s sorta tough to fathom, not necessarily because they’re short on talent, but they don’t immediately come to mind alongside Russia, Sweden, Canada, and the Americans.

The team this year looks like a mixed bag overall.  Teemu Selanne will be playing in his sixth Olympics at age 43.  He’s ancient, but is surrounded by other grizzled Finns like Olli Jokinen.  The biggest issue, however, is the loss of both Mikko Koivu and Valtteri Filppula.  That’s the first and second line center gone as of today.  It’s too bad in general, because there is now really an outside chance for a Finnish medal.

Injuries excluded, the biggest issue is the large disparity in talent.  Selanne will be playing on a team with an 18 year old who was born two years after Teemu’s first Olympics.  The stars of yesterday and the stars of tomorrow are both on the team…very few for the present.  On defense, Olli Maata and Sami Vatanen are capable, and Kimmo Timonen has been here before.  He may be the rock solid D-man for Finland in this tourney.

All, however, is not lost.  The Finns have easily the best goalies of all teams, and that’s with their usual starter, Pekka Rinne, down with an injury.  Tuukka Rask has an all-time .930 save percentage in the postseason for Boston, meaning he can play really well under pressure.  Behind him, Antti Niemi has already won a Cup as a starter with Chicago in 2010, and Kari Lehtonen has played well above the average during his career.  The question is if it will be enough to keep the Finns in the picture given today’s injuries.  I bet not.

Russia

Why aren’t they in the contenders section?  Because there’s no telling what this team will do.  Arguably the most talented team for years has not medaled since a silver in 1998, though they’ve sniffed the podium most years since.  This team’s locker room collapse four years ago means the upcoming tourney in front of a home crowd will take on a new meaning for the term “pressure.”

Talent-wise, they are stacked.  Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Pavel Datsyuk, former NHL star Ilya Kovalchuk, and talented youngster Vladimir Tarasenko all dominate the front line.  The team rolls nine deep on forwards with significant NHL work and some serious goal scorers.  It’s possible that reduced minutes might mean certain forwards don’t play as well as we think, but the depth is considerable, even with the strange exclusion of Alexander Semin from the roster.

On defense, the questions are there.  Andrei Markov is older, but brings good leadership for the blue line.  After him, however, the whole thing looks like it comes off the rails.  Slava Voynov has put in a good year for the LA Kings and his improvement will help, but Fedor Tyutin and Nikita Nikitin are not top talents.  Russia may be wishing they had more of that by the end.

But, the four years since Vancouver have seen an emergence of new Russian goalies.  Sergei Bobrovsky won the Vezina last year for the Blue Jackets as the league’s top goalie, and Semyon Varlamov (formerly a Cap) has helped Colorado to a surprising season.  This tandem is loads better than the 2010 grouping of Evgeni Nabokov and Ilya Bryzgalov, both of whom are known for postseason flameouts.

I can’t wait to see these guys, because the home crowd will likely fuel a lot of fire for them.  Plus, the Russians don’t have Canada’s problem of too many talented players, many of whom may have to play reduced roles with which they are unfamiliar.  I expect this team will come down to defense and goaltending, but the Russians look to be in a much better place than previous tournaments.

You Know Us

All the contenders that have been mentioned in the media lately.  Many experts see these three as being your medal winners.

Sweden

Winners of gold in Torino, the Swedes finished fifth in Vancouver, but bring back a potent lineup that has only one player not from the NHL.  Top to bottom, they are very good, but there have been some injury concerns.

Up front, the Swedes will have Henrik Zetterberg from Detroit, Nicklas Backstrom from the Caps, Daniel Sedin from Vancouver, and Alexander Steen from St. Louis.  All top-15 players in the league right now, and the supporting cast is just as good.  Veteran Daniel Alfredsson presents a contrast to Ducks rookie sensation Jakob Silfverberg.  Carl Hagelin brings great speed as well, and Marcus Kruger from the Blackhawks is used to a full workload on a star-studded team.

Unfortunately the forwards could have been better, but Johan Franzen (Detroit) and Henrik Sedin (Vancouver) will not make the trip due to injury.  They are replaced by Gustav Nyquist (Detroit) and Marcus Johansson (Washington).  Nyquist has come on strong as of late, but Johansson might be something of a shade during the tournament, as he doesn’t get many points but is used to playing with top talent.

On defense, Niklas Lidstrom retired, but the squad boasts some serious shutdown guys in Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson, Johnny Oduya, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  All NHLes playing on their team’s top tow defensive pairings.  Through in offensively minded Erik Karlsson, and the defense will be just as potent.

Henrik Lundqvist in net is normally a safe bet, but he is in the middle of his worst year yet, with a below-average save percentage.  Behind him, there’s really no one (Jhonas Enroth is the backup to Ryan Miller in Buffalo and could start on most NHL teams, but he isn’t exactly a star).  He must play well for the Swedes to beat the Canadians or the Americans.

I like this team.  More on why later.

Canada

Unbelievable, how talented this team is.  Sidney Crosby, Rick Nash, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, John Tavares, Martin St. Louis, John Tavares, and Jonathan Toews are all top dogs on their respective teams.  I’m still puzzled by the inclusion of Chris Kunitz (ostensibly he will play alongside Crosby as he does in Pittsburgh) and Patrick Marleau.  Both guys of course have tons of talent, but I wonder if James Neal and Joe Thornton would have been better members of the roster.  That said, Canada has an embarrassment of riches, which may create problems depending on the roles everyone must play.  Yes, it’s all for queen and country, but it’s tough to go from playing 20 minutes per game to seven.

The defense has talent in bunches as well.  Duncan Keith, Alex Pietrangelo, P.K. Subban, and Shea Weber have all been nominees for the Norris Trophy in recent years.  Drew Doughty won a Cup in LA as a top-line D-man, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic has put up great numbers in San Jose.  It will be fun to see who actually gets playing time, as not everyone is guaranteed to do so.  Subban may find himself in street clothes more often than not.  That’s right, last year’s top D-man not even dressing.

Like all teams mentioned, there’s one potential hiccup, which is in the crease for this team.  Carey Price, Roberto Luongo, and Mike Smith are starters in the NHL (Montreal, Vancouver, and Phoenix respectively).  Price arguably has the better top-end game than Luongo, but Luongo actually did the winning of gold in 2010.  I expect coach Mike Babcock will keep a close eye on the goalies, because this team has perhaps the fourth or fifth best goalies in the tournament.  They are solid, but unspectacular.

Canada has a list of almost 15 stars who were not picked for this roster, so there’s good reason to think they have an upper hand going into the tournament.  Still, the goalies will be key.

United States

Finally, we reach our boys.  Team USA may not have many superstars, but there are top scorers.  Patrick Kane (Chicago), Phil Kessel (Toronto), Joe Pavelski (San Jose), and Max Pacioretty (Montreal) all bring great games to the Games.  Throw in Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg) and Zach Parise (Minnesota) and the checking line will feature young goal scorers.  The St. Louis duo of David Backes and T.J. Oshie plays against stiff competition every night, as does Dustin Brown in Los Angeles.  Personally, I like the inclusion of Ryan Callahan from the Rangers, who somehow figures out a way to contribute in all circumstances and has great two-way skills.  I remain a little shocked at the inclusion of Paul Stastny (Colorado) who while great in 2010 seems to have been included based purely on resume and family ties.  Bobby Ryan from Ottawa would have added another goal scorer, albeit one who likely wouldn’t Stastny’s defensive abilities to the table.

How bout defense?  Not too far off Canada.  Ryan Suter in Minnesota is a perennial Norris nominee and Ryan McDonagh makes a living blocking shots for the Rangers.  Kevin Shattenkirk (St. Louis) and John Carlson (Caps) were a little out of left field but they bring puck-moving.  At the bottom, it’s a little rough.  I like putting Pittsburgh partners Paul Martin and Brooks Orpik together, but including young guys Cam Fowler (Anaheim) and Justin Faulk (Carolina) is a little tough to justify, especially with the physical Dustin Byfuglien off the roster.

We all know, however, where the focus is.  Ryan Miller singlehandedly brought the U.S. to the gold medal game in 2010, and the goalies will be looked to for inspiration yet again.  Quick is apparently the darling for many, as he won a Stanley Cup not too long ago, but Miller has had the better season by far behind a terrible Buffalo squad.  I’m still shocked that Ben Bishop from Tampa Bay, with the highest save percentage of regular starters, was left off the roster, but third-string goalies are rarely part of it all anyway.  I like Miller as the starter, and will be upset if Dan Bylsma tries to ride Quick for a while.  This is Miller’s job to lose, and he’s done nothing this year but prove he’s ready for the challenge.

Predictions

I am not running with the North American teams, as they have not done well in Games outside of the home continent.  I realize that isn’t scientific, but we should keep in mind the Olympic rink is 15 feet wider than the standard NHL rink, meaning there is more room for speed to take its toll.  More Europeans play that way as opposed to North Americans, so I’m gonna throw this into the ring:

Gold – Sweden

Silver – Russia

Bronze – United States

Fourth – Canada

 

Might be unpatriotic, and it’s tough to bet against the Canadians to medal, but I actually don’t think they will bring down the house this time.  The Russians will be playing at their top form in front of adoring fans, and I like the goalie situation there a lot.  Sweden, however, brings the ideal mix of goaltending skating talent, with perhaps the best combos on the blue line.  In the third-place game, I’m picking the U.S. to win based solely on patriotism, but it is not inconceivable that the team finishes out of the top four.  The continent has mattered that much in recent years, and I’m not willing to bet against history given the talent pools in Sweden and Russia.

Enjoy all! 

Where's the Fight?

Two years ago today, I started this blog.  It’s somewhat tough to believe, but I continue to do my best to provide those of you who still read with some interesting sports knowledge.

Let’s be real: unless you are a Seahawks fan, the Super Bowl sucked.  There are no two ways about this.  The game was over by 8:45 after Harvin’s kick return and the ads were, for the most part, fairly lousy.  The redeeming qualities of the game were as follows:

-          Bruno Mars in the halftime show, who provided a different yet exciting form of entertainment that likely got some young and senior citizen foots tapping.

-          A new trivia answer to “name the defensive players that have won Super Bowl MVP” which is always a tough, dicey category

-          Shots of Eli Manning looking sad

That’s it in my book.  Tough game to watch and completely unenjoyable from a neutral fan’s perspective.

As far as blame goes, we now confront an offseason of wrangling, bickering, prevaricating, and buffoonery surrounding Peyton Manning.  Not only did he not win the big one this time, he couldn’t have triumphed in a minicamp scrimmage the way Denver played last night.

That’s right, how Denver played, not how he played.  Undoubtedly, he played poorly, but I think there should be some clarification.  Manning did not snap the ball early on the first play from scrimmage, causing a safety.  Similarly, he didn’t allow Cliff Avril to pressure him, forcing an interception.  He didn’t deliver Redskins-style kickoff protection to start the second half.  After that point, the game was effectively over, but before then Denver’s issues ran deep.

The O-Line, one of the best all year, allowed Manning to be pressured on 60 percent of his true dropbacks (not including the screen passes which worked not at all).  I think the game was won there.  Without parroting Troy Aikman or thousands of other sportswriters, it’s safe to say Seattle was always able to cover four receivers with seven guys due to the admirable effort up front.  Manning’s mobility issues only exacerbated the problems here.

There is a fair amount of blame, however, that should be directed towards Peyton Manning.  A quarterback of his veteran savvy looked totally lost at points against the defense.  He holds all play-calling responsibilities and didn’t record a first down during the entire first quarter.  There certainly wasn’t enough time on many plays, but Manning certainly could have used the running game or even the edge passes better.  He didn’t, and was truthfully lucky to take over in the second quarter down only 15-0.

When playing behind such a poor O-line, adjustments must be made.  Peyton has deservedly cultivated an image as one of the smartest in the game, but I’m not certain what he saw going forward.  While the first interception to Kam Chancellor was definitely his fault, Manning’s second pick can’t be blamed at his feet, only because Avril bull rushed the edge and impeded his arm as he threw.  But, when two yards were needed, Manning passed up Julius Thomas on fourth down for a pass to the sideline which was, unsurprisingly on this night, deflected at the line.  One kick return later, and everyone saw the writing on the wall.

I have always been a Manning defender.  He’s the best all-time.  I almost wrote this with an eye towards blaming the entire offensive line, or by highlighting the Denver defense’s inability to lay a hit on Russell Wilson.  How about miserable tackling on defense or Champ Bailey inexplicably losing Doug Baldwin on a huge third down?  These all deserve special recognition, but when it comes down to it, Manning bears the burden.  And don’t get me wrong, this was a total losing effort, but Peyton Manning has given new meaning to the term “field general,” and on this occasion, he didn’t shepherd his forces.  In truth, he didn’t put up much of a fight.

The Arbitrary Hall

As a preview, you are not opening up another Super Bowl analysis.  I realize others actually spend their waking hours watching football tape.  Those are the people you want to read for a preview of today’s game.  I figured there might be some room for another football topic today.

Specifically, it’s time someone wrote about the ridiculousness of the NFL’s Hall of Fame process.  HOFs are a tricky business…there should not be a set numerical standard for enshrinement, and yet whatever standard should not be completely arbitrary.  Baseball has chosen to address the issue of arbitrary protocols through the ballot voting percentage.  The benefit here: if 75% of voters agree, the guy likely deserves to be a Hall of Famer.  The downside: a player could end up at 70% for ten years, so does that guy deserve to be in the Hall or not?  Numerical percentages have issues like this.

The NFL has instituted a selection committee, a 46-person group that announces its decision on the Saturday before the Super Bowl.  The fun thing about this: there’s always gonna be someone inducted.  In fact, the NFL mandates that between four and seven players make the Hall each year.  In the voting room, any player who receives 80 percent of the selection board gets in.  If no one reaches that mark, the top four vote-getters automatically become the Hall of Fame class.

And that’s where the system starts to have problems, the biggest of which is an incentive issue.  Voters have no incentive to make a player a first ballot Hall of Famer, because if he’s that good, he will make it in sometime during the 15 year eligibility window.  Voters know this, and it has created a terrible consequence.   Namely, voters generally do not include players in the same class who played the same position.

This is madness, and the problem could not be more apparent right now at the wide receiver position.  This year, Andre Reed finally made the class in his seventh year of eligibility.  Reed, spent his career as the star receiver for the Buffalo Bills.  He logged 951 receptions over his career on a team that ran the ball the majority of the time.  Reed is a worthy inductee, but he beat out Tim Brown for this year’s class.  The same Brown who sits sixth in receiving yards all-time, who saw nine Pro Bowls compared to Reed’s seven, and who did this all without the benefit of Hall of Famer Jim Kelly throwing him the ball and deserves special recognition as a special teams player.  I will add Brown played the majority of his career when 4000 yards passing in a season still qualified as something extraordinary.

Are we really going to deny one of the top five receivers ever the chance to be a first-, second-, third-, and fourth-ballot Hall of Famer?  The Hall is obviously an honor, but some players deserve particular recognition by being first-ballot Hall of Famers.  If they’re good enough, put them in, end of discussion.  Cris Carter, the man who is second in receiving touchdowns and has over 1100 receptions to his name, waited six years for induction.   Six years for a guy who made eight straight Pro Bowls?

Of course, Reed’s induction yesterday guarantees that Tim Brown will be inducted.  But the problem of the position-specific approach has another manifestation besides the improper recognition of all-time greats. As more players from that position become eligible, the effect ripples out.  Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, and Isaac Bruce are either already eligible or will be eligible in the next four years.  Of the top ten in receiving yards, all but two retired in the past decade.  Tim Brown is only one example, but it might get even worse.  Randy Moss is third in all-time receiving yards…how long will he need to wait?

The NFL needs to do away with the max seven players rule.  Bump it up to nine and reiterate that it’s okay to put multiple players from one position into the same class.  In a more radical move, the NFL could eliminate the numbers rule altogether,  Without a set number of inductees, voters would be way more likely to throw those deserving enshrinement into the Hall at the first possible opportunity, specifically because today’s voter has no guarantee about the preferences of classes to come.  The logjam at receiver would be mollified at the very least and perhaps eliminated altogether.

The Hall of Fame is an honor, one that should not be subject to the ridiculous idea that only one offensive tackle, linebacker, receiver, or quarterback can be part of a Hall of Fame class.

Bit #1: Super Bowl Prediction

I’m changing.  I like Denver to win 24-21.