2014 U.S. Open

I am presented with no good options this week.  My last soccer preview, written in the heady days of 2012, before the Euro Cup, picked the Netherlands to win.  My last golf posting, on the Masters two months ago, picked Bubba Watson to miss the cut and not be around for the weekend.  Whether a moment of divine retribution, poetic justice, or just stupidity, I couldn’t have been more wrong on either forecast (the Dutch were eliminated in group stages, and Watson won his second Green Jacket).

You may see my conundrum.  The World Cup begins on Thursday in Brazil, a month long period where soccer fully embodies its moniker as the global game.  Simultaneously, golf’s toughest test opens at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina.  Truthfully, I find it hard to decipher which cerebral game I would rather spend a few hours researching.  I have only recently been opened up to the large recesses of soccer, which are tough to penetrate without having familiarity with the game.  (On that note, read the recent Grantland piece on soccer basics for a tutorial on how to watch the World Cup).  Needless to say, the World Cup will dominate my attention over the coming weeks, and I just recently scheduled a meeting so as not to miss Spain-Netherlands this Friday.  That said, you can find wonderful World Cup previews everywhere, so let’s go through the U.S. Open.

Looking back on my Masters preview, I’ll give some similar adjectives to watch for:

1.      Boring – With all due respect to those who have won the U.S. Open, this major lends itself to typically patient golfers who often are not terribly exciting, and neither are their games.  Justin Rose and Webb Simpson, the last two winners, won’t receive many octane points from most fans, but patience is the key to this tournament.

2.      Tough – The U.S. Open is won with an over-par score most of the time.  In 2005 at Pinehurst, Michael Campbell won at +5, a score that normally would mean an early exit home.  Scores like -16 or -12 (Rory and Tiger in 2011 and 2000, respectively) are outliers.  It bears noting Tiger won that year as the only guy under par.

3.      Surprisingly New – One reason this year is tough to predict is very few have played this course in its current form.  In 2011, a group sought to restore Pinehurst to the original Donald Ross design, which means no rough.  Normally, U.S. Open rough could hide a few small animals.  This year, the course will be a little more open, though much of the rough has been replaced with wiregrass, sand, and weeds.  It still pays to hit the fairway. (For hole-by-hole, click here)

4.      Precise – Bogeys are the M.O. at the U.S. Open.  Normally a wayward drive spells doom, but this year the greater challenge will be the short games.  Donald Ross designed this course with severely undulating greens, many of which will be tough to hold with an approach shot.  As such, the short stuff will separate the best from the field, and I’d expect the winner to do very well in chipping and putting this week.

Given all those details, I’m going to go through a few players so you can see what the storylines are this week:

Mickelson:  It all began at Pinehurst in 1999, when Phil finished runner-up to Payne Stewart.  Since then, Phil has finished second at this tournament five more times, and needs it to complete a career Grand Slam.  He’s wily and cagey and you can’t discount him.  That said, Phil has no top 10 finish this year on Tour and has been bedeviled by allegations of insider trading.  There may just be too many distractions, but you can bet Phil has teed off at Pinehurst a few times in 2014 to prepare for this weekend.

Rory McIlroy:  Oddmakers have him as the favorite, and it’s easy to see why.  He ranks first in putts per green-in-regulation and has not shied away from big tournaments.  His win at the BMW PGA Championship in Europe made waves, especially as he did so in the wake of one of the dumbest relationship decisions ever.  He also finished top-10 at the Players last month, so there’s lots of reason to like Rory this week.  That said, can he avoid one bad round that has sunk him in majors past?

Adam Scott:  Scott has never finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open, but he’s also never brought his current maelstrom of success into the tournament.  Since reaching the top world ranking, Scott won at Colonial and finished tied for fourth at the Memorial. 

Bubba:  There’s a lot of momentum behind Bubba this week, particularly since the course has been lengthened by 400 yards, playing almost perfectly to his power long game.  Watson also has seven top-10 finishes this year and has missed only one cut all season.  What’s also impressive is his short game has improved, as he’s second in putts per green-in-regulation thus far on Tour.  Part of that could be explained by his usual 100 yard approach shot after a mammoth drive, but he’s making the putts and has the temperament to do well here.

Jason Dufner: The PGA Champ last year, Dufner really fits the moment extremely well.  His stats won’t blow anyone away, but he lost the Colonial in a playoff to Adam Scott and has top five finishes at the last two Opens.  Most important, he is always patient and never indulges in destructive mental games. 

Matt Kuchar:  Similar to Dufner, Kuchar’s pensive personality works immensely well for the big moment.  He’s also played well lately, with nine top 10 finishes this year.  That said, we’ve been waiting for Kooch to win one of these things for a while, and I’m starting to lose confidence.

Sergio Garcia: I touted Sergio around Masters time, and I’m gonna keep at it.  Sergio has made seven of eight cuts on the PGA Tour this season, and finished tied for third when the Open last came to Pinehurst.  That’s not the biggest deal for 2014, but given Garcia’s current play he deserves to be listed here as someone to watch.

Hideki Matsuyama: Another guy I touted at the Masters (who fizzled badly), Matsuyama recently won the Memorial in a playoff where he birdied the 18^th hole all four days.  His swing is strange, with a pause at the top that sends me into conniptions, but Matsuyama has quietly made 12 of 15 cuts this year and finished in the top 10 in the Open last year.

Justin Rose: I know, it’s a bit low to mention the defending champ, but Rose hasn’t been on the radar much lately.  He missed the cut at the Memorial, but had three straight top 10s immediately following the Masters.  It also bears repeating that back-to-back champions in this event are almost impossible given the variance and high difficulty.  It’s only been done once, and the champion then admitted he was lucky to do it.

Jordan Spieth: He took over the Masters news, but came up short in the end.  I love Spieth, particularly after his gutty performance on that Sunday afternoon.  That said, Spieth has issues controlling his emotions on the course.  At Augusta, he treated close misses as chili dips, and that kind of attitude likely will be tested at the Open.  I’m personally not sold on Spieth winning this thing (which means he’ll win it), but he may very well be right up there at the end.

Lee Westwood: My annual hope for Lee continues.  His ball-striking is always very good, and he has shown proficiency under U.S. Open conditions, with three top 10s in his last six Open outings.  He’ll be competing at majors for a while longer, but that window looks to be closing.

Henrik Stenson: He’s the second ranked player in the world, but Stenson is still largely riding the torrid wave he set late last season.  He has finished in the top ten in his last two European starts, but he has only one such finish at the Open, way back in 2009.

Dustin Johnson: In 2010, DJ led after 54 holes at Pebble Beach before driving a ball into the ocean and sinking his final round.  While that must be a somewhat tough thing to live with, Johnson’s length will help him with the lack of rough on this course.  He might contend as a result.

Prediction

It looks like rain will be at Pinehurst by Sunday, meaning I bet this thing finishes Monday either due to weather or a tie at the top.  My head certainly tells me Rory, and my heart tells me Phil, but a good prediction should focus on Jason Dufner.  I like him to win this tournament, with Rory and Bubba in the top 10.

2014 Cup Finals

For what seems like the fourth straight year, the NHL will be blessed with a marquee Stanley Cup final.  Sure, LA isn’t exactly a hotbed of hockey traditionally, but the league will now be able to take advantage of the two biggest media markets in the nation.  And unlike in 2012, the New York-area entrant is the Rangers, one of the Original Six.

You have to go back to the 1981 World Series for the last time the major franchises from both LA and NYC met in a championship series for the four major sports.  And I am thinking this series will live up to the bill.  There are a few key points that you will need for looking into these Finals and picking a winner.

Offense vs. Defense

The two teams have had wildly different marches to the playoffs in many respects.  The Rangers have scored 54 goals, and their highest goal-scorer has a grand total of six.  In one more game than New York, the Kings have a baffling nineteen more goals scored.

This is somewhat explained by opposition: the Kings played the Sharks, Ducks, and Blackhawks, all of whom fared very well offensively during the regular season.  LA needed to score in order to keep up, and they’ve done just that, with five Kings in the top ten of all postseason points-leaders.  The Rangers, on the other hand, have no players in that group.

This comes as quite a shock to me, only because it’s hard imagining a team with Rick Nash, Brad Richards, and Martin St. Louis would be so absent from the offensive stat line.  That brings us, however, to the next important factor…

Hot Goalie vs. Not?

This is a tough one to judge, but the series is likely going to be shaped by Henrik Lundqvist.  While his traveling schedule has not been nearly as bad as it will be for the next two weeks or so, Lundqvist is reasserting his dominance on the biggest stage.  His 2.03 goals-against-average and .928 save percentage over the postseason are the real reason the Rangers have made it this far.  In the deciding games of each series, Henrik gave up a grand total of two goals.  That’s against the Flyers, Penguins, and Canadiens, teams who certainly brought the heat.  What’s better, Lundqvist has shown that he won’t lose confidence…his big performances against Philly and Montreal followed two really terrible losses, one of which saw Lundqvist being pulled.

Jonathan Quick, on the other hand, has been something of a mystery.  A 2.86 goals-against-average and a .908 save percentage are far cries from the numbers brought in by his opponent.  Quick also has been somewhat pedestrian lately, despite making a few big saves along the way.  While he backstopped the team to a Cup already, there’s no doubt that the hotter goalie will be lining up in the Rangers crease.

Resiliency

This will be my obligatory non-stat factor of the post.  You will hear over the next several days about the Kings winning three Game 7s on the road in this postseason, a record.  But, we should not forget the Rangers won in seven against Philly and needed to win three straight to beat the Penguins in a seven game series.  Throw in a tense six game win against Montreal, and it’s tough not to think the Rangers will be just a tough.

That said, we can’t underestimate the Kings ability to stick around.  While it feels like two months ago, the Kings beat the Sharks in for straight games to rally from a 3-0 series deficit, only the fourth such occasion in hockey ever.  San Jose didn’t step on the throat quick enough, a fact the Rangers cannot do at any point in this series.

Face-off Circle

It’s perhaps the least appreciated part of hockey by casual fans, but a big face-off guy is a huge boost to a team in the playoffs.  And the Kings are blessed with two of them, Jarrett Stoll and Anze Kopitar.  Stoll (57 percent) and Kopitar (54.4 percent) not only win the majority of their draws but they play on some of the top scoring lines.  The Rangers, by contrast, can send out Dominic Moore for these duties (57 percent), but he averages a full four fewer minutes of ice time than Stoll.  The Kings’ ability to win face-offs might be key in this game, especially on the power play.

Central Weakness for New York

The Rangers are woefully outgunned at center, and it isn’t even close.  Mike Richards, Jeff Carter, Stoll, and Kopitar can all score and, as said above, win face-offs.  The Rangers counter with Derek Stepan, Brad Richards, Derek Brassard, and Moore.  This isn’t to discount New York’s guys, but the only one of them with any prodigious goal-scoring talent is Richards.  I do expect Brassard to make life very uneasy for the Kings unit, since he enjoys the rough-and-tumble stuff, but in the end there really is no comparison when it comes to the centers.  All the more need for Henrik to be on fire.

Doughty Little Secret…

Not anymore…Drew Doughty has been a revelation in the postseason on the blue line for the Kings.  With twelve assists and nifty stick-work, Doughty will be a similar version of P.K. Subban, who gave the Rangers all they could handle in the last series.  That’s not to say, however, that he isn’t immune from a bad game…his Game 7 last night wasn’t particularly memorable, but he creates goals (16 assists) through well-timed shots and evasive maneuvers.  We will also watch Ryan McDonagh, the Rangers star blueliner who was the best American skater this year at Sochi, and may belong in Doughty’s tier for defensemen.

Homecoming

The Rangers brought in Marian Gaborik a few years back to give them a much-needed offensive boost.  While he posted two 40-goal seasons, the Rangers offloaded him at the trade deadline last year to shed salary and regain some depth.  And yet, now they are looking at Gaborik across the ice tied with Wayne Gretzky for the most goals ever in a Kings postseason with twelve.  Put in a good series, and Gaborik might move from being a Broadway blunder to a Tinseltown treasure (for the record, I am very proud of that sentence).

Prediction

It comes down to Lundqvist, and if he had home ice the first two games I might be more inclined to trust him here.  But LA has moved inexorably forward, refusing to go away despite being in some serious doldrums.  The series should be long, however, since the Kings have played a ton of hockey that drained them mentally and physically.  In the end, however, I’m not sure the Rangers can continue to channel Martin St. Louis’ emotion to a Cup victory.  Kings in 7.