Playoff Predictions

I’m on my game this year.  One day after the postseason field is filled I have my predictions going.  But, as has been said by many NFLers, all records are now 0-0 for these twelve teams.  In essence, it’s something of a game of chance, but why not take the time? 

Wild Card

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Last time these divisional foes met, Ben Roethlisberger threw six touchdowns.  Le’Veon Bell had only 20 yards on the ground, but he wasn’t really needed.  Since then, however, Bell has become a driving force for the Steelers, not just in the rushing game but also in the receiving aspect (he had 83 receptions this year).  His knee injury, suffered last night against Cincy, is cause for concern if I’m the Steelers.  The one saving grace is that the Ravens have a stout rushing D, and Haloti Ngata returns from suspension to anchor the defensive line.

This is essentially a toss-up for me, but I’m gonna run with Pittsburgh.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see this game go to Baltimore, but the Steelers defense has played better and we’ve seen the offensive explosiveness from Pittsburgh all year long.  Steelers 31-27

Bengals at Colts

It wasn’t that long ago I thought the Colts might challenge in the AFC.  The 11-5 record seems to bear that out, but since their Week 10 bye Indy has beaten the Jags, Redskins, Browns, Texans, and Titans.  During that same period, they’ve lost badly to the Pats and the Cowboys.  Somehwat absent is the team that started the season with close games against Denver and Philly.  Cincy is also a team without much coming in.  Their win against Denver two weeks ago was impressive, but does anyone still have any belief Andy Dalton can lead this team in the playoffs, especially if A.J. Green’s concussion keeps him out for a while?  The two-headed running attack has been awesome this year, and that will be the key to a Bengals victory.  The Colts might want to learn about the running game at all, as Trent Richardson’s 519 yards in 15 games isn’t going to get many defenses quaking.

Like the other wild card game, tough to tell who’s the better team.  I’m tempted to do the sensible thing and pick against Andy Dalton, but after they beat Denver and have a formidable running game, how can I?  Bengals 24-21

Cardinals at Panthers

It’s a real shame Carson Palmer isn’t playing.  The Cards have gone 3-4 since his injury, and despite a tough defense they don’t really bring much to the table right now.  Ryan Lindley has not played very well, so the hope that Drew Stanton comes back as QB is a larger X-factor.  Carolina may be 7-8-1, but they’ve rattled off four straight wins.  I should add they’ve received tons of help from their defense on scoring plays, which can’t be expected to continue.  But to get a home playoff game?  Against the Cardinals?  They’ve shown a lot lately and while the numbers might not be crazy good, they have played well when needed.  Even if Stanton does come back, I don’t think the outcome changes.  Carolina is the better team right now and they should win.  Panthers 21-10

Lions at Cowboys

Damn those Eagles.  If they had made this more compelling of a playoff race, the Cowboys could theoretically have been 11-5 and still missed the playoffs.  Instead Dallas capped off a remarkable season and will host a playoff game.

This game seems like an assured Cowboy win.  DeMarco Murray has been disgustingly good all year, and Tony Romo is having by far his best season from a results standpoint.  Not to mention the defense has somehow managed to stay afloat despite a bedraggled roster on paper.  Detroit, on the other hand, may have been one game from the division title, but their lack of a running attack to wear down the Dallas defense will create the same one-dimensional game we’ve grown to expect from the Lions.  Stafford is prodigious, and he has Megatron, but they haven’t played better than Tony and Dez this year.  Throw in the running attack of Dallas, even against the deep Detroit running defense, and I think this game is a blowout.  Cowboys 35-17

Divisional Round

Bengals at Patriots

Attention has focused perhaps on other AFC teams, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the Patriots.  They are the class of this conference, and their “resurgence” this season, after a lot of nay-saying, occurred at home against Cincinnati.  Admittedly, the Bengals were not well-versed in the ways of Jeremy Hill at that time, but the Pats are a top-10 rush defense this year.  In typical New England fashion, the Patriots have also been a chameleon, finding different ways to defeat their opponents.  Given the history this year for Cincy in Foxborough, I find it hard to fathom the Bengals have any legitimate chance to win this game.  Patriots 27-7

Steelers at Broncos

The Broncos have not been as good as expected this year, especially in the past four weeks or so.  The discovery of C.J. Anderson certainly adds a necessary new component to the Denver attack, and it’s never a good idea to bet against Peyton Manning.  The key for Pittsburgh will likely be Antonio Brown’s matchup against Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, which will be legendary.  Brown needs to have a big day to beat Denver, and there remains uncertainty as of this writing due to Bell’s knee injury.  I expect this to be a competitive game, but the Broncos have been able to win multiple different ways this year, and they are undefeated at home.  Broncos 21-14

Panthers at Seahawks

Won’t waste much time here.  The Seahawks have the best pass defense in the league, and since Week 10 they’ve given up an average of 215 total yards.  I should add only twice in that same span have opposing rushers gone above 75 yards (admittedly, those two games were big ones by the Chiefs and 49ers).  When putting them against Carolina, which has primarily relied on the running game this year in some form or fashion, it seems inconceivable that Seattle loses.  Not to mention, Seattle has a dynamite home-field atmosphere.  Seahawks 24-7

Cowboys at Packers

If things work out as I foresee, this will be the best game of the playoffs prior to the Big One.  I know, Lambeau Field is almost impossible to play in, and it’s Dallas.  But, if there’s a game that might win in Lambeau, the Cowboys have it.  Their defense, as I said, is better than most and they bring a great rushing attack.  The Pack should hope Aaron Rodgers brings that pesky calf injury to heel, because if he is knocked out at all, this team quickly becomes a shell of something great. 

Despite what I said about the Dallas run game, I think we can expect a shootout here.  The Packers score in bunches and they score often, particularly at home, meaning Romo may need to keep up with Rodgers.  I think he can do it with Dez’s help.

An interesting sidenote: Dallas went undefeated on the road this year (including at Seattle).  Green Bay didn’t lose at home.  When presented those two streaks, I have to go with the home team, especially in Green Bay. Packers 42-38

Conference Championships

Note:  Some of you I’m sure will wonder why you’ve read this far only for me to pick the top two seeds to be there at the end in each conference.  I get that, as I’m always disappointed when prognosticators do this (Jay Bilas has a terrible habit of this for March Madness).  But, think back on the season.  At various points, the Patriots and Packers have been discussed as the best teams in football.  The Seahawks seem to have taken that moniker in the public eye lately, and with good reason.  And Denver has Peyton Manning, and a deep defense that has won lots of games this year.  Like it or not, these four teams have the fewest questions about them of the twelve.  If I had to pick a dark horse, however, to reach this stage and the Super Bowl, I’d have to go with Dallas.

Broncos at Patriots

Earlier, I said betting against Peyton is never a good idea.  The caveat is you can when he plays the Patriots.  He’s 5-11 against New England, and, very significantly, 2-8 in Foxborough.  I look back to their meeting this season, in which Denver was down 20 points at halftime.  Denver fans will say there’s a lot for Peyton to learn from that performance, and while they are undoubtedly right, his history in that stadium does not give me any confidence.  Patriots 37-24

Packers at Seahawks

The Packers are 22^nd in rush defense, which says a lot for how they stack up against today’s Seahawks (as opposed to the team they played in Week 1).  Rodgers will have to throw the ball against the best pass defense in the league.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see Seattle struggle to put points on the board, but it looks like too many mountains for the Pack.  Seahawks 20-14

Super Bowl

Another note:  For those of you accusing me of weak-willed chalking yet again, I remind you the top two seeds met in the Super Bowl last year as well.  Historically it is unlikely, but there aren’t two better teams than these right now.

Patriots vs. Seahawks

This is the matchup we all want to see right?  The mad genius mind of Bill Belichick against Pete Carrol’s ra-ra in your face pump-up tactics.  The one loser in this will be the media, who will have to listen to Belichick and Marshawn press conferences for two weeks.  The number of unique words used at those events might be less than 100.

Both teams have been dominant, and this being a neutral site game will help the Patriots to get away from the terrifying CenturyLink Field.  But, this matchup looks similar to the Super Bowl last year.  Great offense against great defense, all-time QB leading said offense.

Belichick is perhaps the one guy who might be able to break Seattle.  He has displayed the tactical ability to change his game to match the opponent, and depending on how the previous games go, the offense could be really humming.  But if Mike McCarthy and Rodgers can’t succeed one week prior, what will Belichick and Brady do?

I am a member of a school that believes Denver plays much better last year if they don’t lose the opening snap.  I still think they lose, and Seattle has shown the ability in recent weeks to roll through their opponents behind the defense and the running game.  Faith in Bill can only go so far…no one has been able to out-execute the Seahawks defense in the last two months.  Seahawks 31-21

Thoughts on the Past Two Weeks

It’s been a very busy couple of weeks, for several reasons, and as a result I’ve missed a few sports topics that I wanted to post about.  Some thoughts on these topics are below:

Gruden, RGIII, and Snyder

The signs of organizational disarray are obvious, and one such signal is the moving scapegoat.  I refer to the practice of finding a different scapegoat each week.  For the Skins this year, everyone seems to have been that guy at one time or another.  Griffin, Cousins, Gruden, and Allen have all had their spots in the limelight.  Eventually, though, prevailing wisdom wants a bigger fish to fry, so they look at the owner.  If you haven’t read Bill Simmons’ piece on Dan Snyder, please do so.  His points are all valid, and he has a fairly good sense of how the typical Skins fan feels.  Snyder is a problem, has been a problem, and will continue to create issues for this team as long as he owns them.

One such potential problem would be firing Jay Gruden after this year.  A second straight 8-game losing streak to finish a season is not a favorable outcome.  His work with the quarterbacks, an alleged strength prior to the year, has not been up to snuff either.  And now it appears his relationship with Griffin is so bad that the town won’t hold them both next season.  And Snyder may side with his quarterback.

Firing Gruden, however, will do absolutely zilch to help this team.  Sure the quarterbacks have been bad, but isn’t it possible that Griffin et. al. are just having difficulty transitioning?  Griffin has played a grand total of seven games under Jay Gruden.  The argument for keeping Griffin hinges on the fact that he will get better, and it is more likely that he will improve under a system he’s familiar with now (Gruden’s) rather than some other coach.

It seems to me that Griffin defenders want to focus on the pitiful amount of games he’s played this year as a sign that he may still be the answer…we just don’t know yet.  Personally, I think Griffin is not the answer.  But it’s clear also that the “either Gruden or Griffin has to go” mentality is really a false choice if you want to keep Griffin.  If you do, introducing him to a whole new offense has significant risks, and the team is close to the point where it must decide whether to keep Griffin long term.  It makes more sense to do so after seeing him with two seasons in an offensive scheme, rather than a snap judgment after one.

This also doesn’t account for the terrible defense that has done neither gentleman any favors, nor for the sheer idiocy of firing a coach after one year in favor of a quarterback who hasn’t performed since Mitt Romney ran for president.  (Note: If Gruden does get fired, how long before we accept the Griffin might be a coach-killer?)

In the end, the Skins should keep Gruden.  That doesn’t require they keep Griffin as well, but if they can somehow keep both of them, it will benefit everyone more than firing the coach and keeping RGIII.

College Football Playoff

I will reiterate my previously posted point that the playoff was always going be something wonderful, no matter what.  It was also going to create pandemonium and hurt feelings.

In the end, I think Ohio State likely loses to either Baylor and TCU on a neutral field 7 of 10 times.  But, I think they certainly were deserving of their place, and the fans of the Frogs and Bears should ask the Big 12 to find two more teams right now.  Ten team leagues are prevented by NCAA rules from having a conference championship game, and the 59-0 drubbing the Buckeyes put on Wisconsin in the conference championship put them over the top.  While I would not agree they are therefore better than the Horned Frogs or Bears, I think Ohio State was a deserving entrant.

Brief aside: I found this whole thing somewhat interesting, mainly because the top three Big 12 teams this year were not traditional powerhouses.  By way of a hypothetical, do you think Texas or Oklahoma would have been kept out of the playoff if they had Baylor or TCU’s resume?  Impossible to know, obviously, but I can’t imagine someone didn’t think subconsciously “wow, an Ohio State-Alabama matchup would be SICK!  And who would watch ‘Bama-Baylor?”  I don’t mean to damn the process, but human bias is now part of the equation.  I wonder if the traditional programs may get a boost as a result.

NHL Mumps

This is a bizarre story, but the NHL has a mumps problem.  Mumps is a virus that causes severe swelling of the salivary glands and, in extreme cases, can cause sterility problems for men.  Twenty NHLers have been diagnosed this year, with the most important happening on Monday when Sidney Crosby announced he had mumps.  The last time he had an injury (a concussion that was labeled “mild” and led to a yearlong break from hockey) the NHL quickly adopted new protocols to prevent and monitor concussion-like symptoms.  I would expect something similar will happen, and it likely already has.

Crosby’s case, however, has exposed issues with how certain NHL teams respond to this.  He was held out of some morning skates last week due to “flu-like symptoms”, but then played the games, despite looking like this.  While I sympathize that teams may not know enough about mumps or how to stop it, guys with symptoms should definitely not be playing games.  They start sharing water bottles on the bench, and all of a sudden that stuff is spreading.  That Crosby went out there and played despite this not being a new phenomenon across the league is utterly absurd.  Here’s hoping no one else on the Penguins catches it.

Bad Move Pettine

Much of the next bit is totally 20/20 hindsight, but Johnny Manziel was a mashup of Ryan Leaf and Freddie Kruger in his first start last week.  It is infuriating that I can’t say I foresaw this, since I didn’t post about it before the start, but I was so unsurprised by how bad he was.  Mainly because if there’s one guy out there who doesn’t fit the traditional (and time-tested) mold of an NFL QB, it’s Manziel.  He moves all over the place and loves throwing into tight coverages, and now he doesn’t have the towering Mike Evans to help him out.  It’s a bad move by the Browns, and isn’t going to work out well for them.

A-Rod

The gift that keeps on giving for sports nuts is A-Rod.  Even if baseball isn’t your thing, he might be the most reviled athlete in the U.S. these days.  He is back in the news, as the media reports he will try to be the full-time third baseman again.  An inconvenient truth is that the Yanks signed Chase Headley for four years last week, meaning A-Rod will have competition.  And Brian Cashman, the GM, says he expects Rodriguez to be a full-time designated hitter.

Personally, I’d like to take an under/over bet on how many pounds he will gain as a result of sitting on the bench so much.

The Beauty of the CFP

Last night, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their updated rankings going into conference championship week.  And it looks a little funky.  The only undefeated Power 5 team (Florida State) is fourth, while TCU is third, not only ahead of the Seminoles but a whopping three spaces ahead of Baylor, an in-state rival that beat the Horned Frogs.  Throw in the one-loss Ohio State Buckeyes (seemingly doomed to a purgatory equal parts QB injuries and anti-Big Ten bias) in fifth, and a muddy picture emerges.

One thing, however, is clear: this is the best way to figure it all out.

The true merits of the four team playoff structure is the chance of undefeated teams being left out at the top is essentially nil.  Remember Auburn in 2004?  A 13-0 team forever wondering what might have been.  Thankfully, they’d be part of a playoff.  While the BCS made things simpler in deciding two teams, it relied on an unstable mixture of journalists, coaches, and computers.  While apparently an appropriate basis, the tripartite plan had large problems.  As in all sports, computers are never able to fully predict results, particularly in the “Any Given Saturday” atmosphere that seems to dominate college football now.  Add to this the coaches’ poll, a relic of bygone days, which allowed coaches who hadn’t seen every team play to rank the best programs (despite acknowledging the impossibility of this task).  Throw in the moral temptation for a coach to overrate their team in the poll or defer to conference foes, and the coaches’ poll became a joke.  The journalists eventually wanted out, so they were replaced by the Harris poll, a listing put together by a market research firm.

The entire paragraph above can be summed up as utter silliness.  I’ve written here before about the problems with a Selection Committee, especially one that includes non-football people, but the current system is infinitely superior to the past attempts at rankings, including the BCS and the straight reliance on polls that the sport used for so many years.

Some would favor expansion of the playoff to eight teams.  I sense this idea may have its biggest constituency in Big Ten land (and understandably so), but an expansion to eight teams in almost any football season will result in the inclusion of two-loss teams.  It might make for fun television, but the one-loss crowd presents a natural dividing line between top teams and those who don’t belong.  This isn’t to say the eye test might still be used to determine the top 8, and thus some two-loss teams in tough conferences might have a legitimate chance to be in, but such a discussion will cheapen the regular season.  If there’s one nice thing the BCS had, it required teams to win every game to prove they belonged.  The current playoff doesn’t do that as strictly given the increased amount of slots, and allows the appropriate amount of wiggle room, but winning is what needs to be valued above all else. 

When wins are equal, it’s worthwhile and correct to look at the nature of losses.  Makes sense that the best teams will beat teams they should beat and at least be competitive against teams they shouldn’t.  The true beauty of the rankings released this week?  None of the top four teams has an ugly loss.  That regrettably can’t be said for Ohio State (losing at home to a now 6-6 Virginia Tech team) or Baylor (a 41-27 loss to an unranked West Virginia team).  In that sense, I think the Committee has done an admirable job making sure the teams that have no such losses are in, and they’ve ranked them appropriately.     

The College Football Playoff is a beautiful thing.  No beauty is perfect, and the system may need some tinkering at some point.  But the playoff has achieved a remarkable success: it’s fairer and more fun.  While any system based on personal judgments (like the Selection committee) will be accused of overwhelming bias, we no longer need to dig into the computer models to find the target of our anger.  Not to mention, these people have their one job when it comes to the rankings, so it seems foolish to say they aren’t prepared for the choices they are making.  And, what’s best is that more teams now have access, and even more want to be in.  It’s a sign of health that champions are determined this way, and we should keep it the way it is until events force reform.

No Quarterbacks in DC

Today, media sources reported that the Redskins will bench Robert Griffin III for Sunday’s game against the Colts, in favor of Colt McCoy.

This has started quite the buzz around DC, most especially surrounding what this will mean going forward for the team.  Under the terms of Griffin’s contract, he will be a free agent after the 2015 season if the Redskins decide not to pick up an option for the 2016 season.

I was once a big Griffin supporter, advocating for him over inserting Kirk Cousins.  Griffin has come in this year and been truly awful.  I could further elaborate on all his football sins, but many of you are already aware of them.  His yards-per-completion has fallen each year, and he has thrown two touchdowns in five starts.  His 173.8 yards-per-game is befitting a game manager (and a pedestrian one at that), not a guy who was picked second overall after exchanging three years of first round picks.

Which brings us to Colt McCoy.  The most spoken phrase this week has been “he won two games!  You gotta give him a shot.”

Granted, I suppose you do.  But let’s not kid ourselves, Colt McCoy is not the long-term answer.  His next few starts will tell us something about his ability, and maybe he will flourish, but the numbers on McCoy are not promising.  He’s a career 7-15 as a starter, and has thrown only one more touchdown than interceptions.  During his two years as a Cleveland starter, he averaged a QBR of around 42.  He was replaced by Brandon Weeden, who has since been replaced.

Of course, Cleveland has not exactly been the model of organizational consistency, and plenty of guys would have likely failed in McCoy’s situation.  That is a fair point, and one that should not be lost in this discussion.  But, the temptation to think he will be a more consistent winner than Griffin is nothing more than overwrought expectations.

We have seen Griffin win a division.  He’s done it, albeit under a different system, but it’s happened.  McCoy has no such pedigree, and while backups every once in a while turn into Tom Brady, Trent Dilfer, or Kurt Warner, very few guys become viable starters after being with three teams in as many years.  Griffin certainly deserved a benching, and his status as a bust will be cemented shortly.  But Colt McCoy, given his past performance, is not likely to be anything special.  The belief in Colt should be short-term, not only due to his numbers, but also because the Redskins have proven beyond doubt that they find most ways to muck up even the most promising situations.

To account for all this, it appears Washington has a number two overall pick that can’t make the necessary adjustments to the pro level and a quarterback who had better numbers only than Tarvaris Jackson and Curtis Painter (to name two) in the two years he started full-time.  This is all on top of Cousins, who has been inactive.

In short, the Redskins have no quarterbacks.

NHL Thanksgiving Rehash

Thanksgiving is typically a magic date on the NHL calendar.  By now, about a quarter of the season has elapsed, teams have shaken off the rust, and identities are decently formed going into the rest of the season.  With that, it’s time to reassess some of the landscape, and there are a few things of note going into “American Thanksgiving.”

You’ll see them in June

Tampa Bay Lightning (14-6-2; 30 points)

Losing defenseman Victor Hedman looked like it might be an issue for this team earlier in the season, but it doesn’t appear to be a problem thus far.  Steven Stamkos is second in goals, while Tyler Johnson has started a career year so it would seem. The top-six forwards have all contributed, and the Lightning hold the third-highest goal differential in the league.  The defense might not be otherworldly without Hedman, but with the offense going so great, who cares?  Expect this team to be in the second round of the playoffs, at least.

Pittsburgh Penguins (13-4-2; 28 points)

Chugga chug chug.  The Penguins train continues regular season dominance.  The stats for this team are good across the board: first in goals-per-game, sixth in goals-against-per-game, tops in the power play and top-5 in penalty killing.  Unsurprisingly, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are near the top of the points race.  One thing to note: with Pascal Dupuis going down due to blood clots, Pittsburgh will need to replace him on their special teams units.  That might dent the top-six production, but I wouldn’t expect much to change until the playoffs.

Anaheim Ducks (13-4-5; 31 points)

After rattling off seven straight wins early in the season, the Ducks have gone through dry spells since then.  But, with unbelievable blue-line contributions from Sami Vatanen (5 goals, 13 assists), the Ducks have been able to overcome some goalie woes.  John Gibson, the presumed future goalie, went down early with an injury, leaving Fredrik Andersen and Jason LaBarbera to fill in.  Once Gibson comes back, this team will look better.

St. Louis Blues (14-6-1; 29 points)

The Blues are a serious Western Conference contender.  They are third in goals-against-per-game and have the third-best power play unit.  Their younger guys, such as Tarasenko, Schwartz, and Lehtera make the Blues quite likely the deepest team in the West.  Add in Brian Elliott’s fourth-best save percentage, and the Blues seem to be well set for the season going forward.

Chicago Blackhawks (12-8-1; 25 points)

They don’t have as many points compared to the teams mentioned above, but Chicago is one of the top teams in the league this year.  Seventh in goals-per-game, third in goals-against-avergae, and tops in the penalty kill mean Chicago has all the makings of a top team.  Their play of late bears this out, as they have won six of their last eight.  According to the advanced stats, Chicago is the best team in the league regarding possession, and have the highest percentage of offensive zone faceoffs in the league (39.2%).  The Hawks are really good and if they maintain this, they will be right there at the end.

They’ll Be There, but Will They Be Good?

Montreal Canadiens (16-6-1; 33 points)

The Canadiens are helped right now after winning 8 of their last 10 games, but the numbers seem to dictate that they will taper off going forward.  Montreal is only 21^st in goals per game and 26^th in power play production.  In short, you have to wonder if they have enough offense to keep this up.  It helps having Carey Price in net, and the team is humming as of late, but those two losses in their last ten have been blowouts to Pittsburgh and the Rangers.  The Canadiens may yet have a ways to go.

New York Islanders (14-6; 28 points)

Third in the league as far as goals-per-game, the Islanders are a surprise being this high in the standings.  A large part of their success can be explained on the road, where their 8 wins are tied for most in the entire league.  The addition of Johnny Boychuk has worked out quite well, as his almost 22 minutes of ice time and +7 rating point quite clearly to his contribution in improving this team.  John Tavares and Brock Nelson have also started hot, and recently the Islanders swept a home-and-away with the Pens.  That said, the combined 90.91 save percentage for this team is 23^rd in the league, so even with advanced stats in their favor (top-five in possession numbers), the Isles may need better long-term goaltending in case the offense suddenly dries up.

Boston Bruins (13-9; 26 points)

The physically imposing Bruins teams we’ve expected largely hasn’t been present this year, primarily due to losing Zdeno Chara earlier in the season.  Unfortunately, the Bruins have lost further starters to injury, like David Krejci and Adam McQuaid.  But, the team has held on rather well, sitting 11^th in goals-against-per-game.  Tuukka Rask also continues to be an elite goalie, so once he has NHLers and not AHLers on his defense, the team will be better.  The Bruins would be well-advised, however, to focus on their chief competition in the Atlantic.  Thus far, Boston has lost all three meetings with Montreal, and they haven’t been very close.

Vancouver Canucks (14-6-1; 29 points)

A year after drama in British Columbia, the Canucks have rebounded nicely, and are second in the Pacific, no mean feat given some of other teams there.  The Sedin twins appear to have found a kindred spirit in Radim Vrbata, as that line has 58 points combined.  The biggest concern might actually be goalie Ryan Miller, who has not posted elite-level numbers that everyone assumes he will produce each season.  A .904 save percentage isn’t going to do very much for anyone at this point, and it seems his reputation continues to overshadow his actual performance.

Nashville Predators (13-5-2; 28 points)

When boasting the best goalie this year, life gets fun.  Pekka Rinne, after missing most of last season with a hip injury, has a goals-against-average under two and a save percentage of .930.  Any way you slice it, Nashville has benefitted dramatically from his return.  The youngsters are also contributing for them, as Filip Forsberg has emerged this year, with 22 points already.  His unbelievable +20 rating is certainly one of the bigger surprises of this season, but the Preds have been very good.  A big question going forward is what will happen with the special teams units, which are near the bottom in both power play and penalty killing.

Minnesota Wild (12-8-0; 24 points)

Minnesota is a darling of the advanced stats community, as they are near the top in possession numbers and don’t appear (mathematically, at least) to be overachieving.  Zach Parise continues to show how valuable he is to any squad, and Nino Niederreiter has contributed in ways not truly expected before the season.  There’s lots of room, though, for improvement.  Prized offseason acquisition Thomas Vanek has scored one goal in 20 games, and needs to score more.  Also, the Wild have a low save percentage, but Darcy Kuemper seems to be righting the ship.  If there is more done to bolster the offense, even slightly, Minnesota will be in good shape.

Los Angeles Kings (11-6-4; 26 points)

Jekyll and Hyde.  The Kings are 10-2-1 at home (best in the league), and 1-4-3 on the road. That large a disparity is worrisome, but LA has made a habit of slow starts and being unbeatable when it counts.  Still, I don’t love the slow start by some of their stalwarts, such as Kopitar, Justin Williams, and especially Marian Gaborik and Dustin Brown.  Without the gaudy save percentage of .932 that Jonathan Quick currently sports, it’s likely the Kings would be deep in a hole.  If they could win a few road games, things will even out, but the trend now is a touch disturbing.

Advanced Stats Love ‘Em

Washington Capitals (9-8-3; 21 points)

Based on a few key markers, the Caps should be much better.  Their possession numbers are in the top-12, and the Caps have the third highest percentage of their faceoffs in the offensive zone.  They have the second fewest percentage of faceoffs in their own zone, meaning Washington should have a much better record than this.  And the reason they don’t is goaltending.  Braden Holtby hasn’t been good.  His save percentage is a respectable .915, but Holtby has given up a remarkable number of soft goals thus far in the season.  His backup, Justin Peters, has been similarly unhelpful (his save percentage is .882, which is equivalent to running a 9-minute mile at the Olympics).  If there’s an area that must get better, it’s in goal.  Otherwise, advanced stats or not, the Caps will be very low on the playoff totem and might even be outside of it in June.

Advanced Stats Hate ‘Em

Calgary Flames (13-7-2; 28 points)

I’m not sure I can underestimate how much advanced stats says the Flames will not only taper off, but rather leap headlong over a statistical cliff.  They have the highest shooting percentage in the league (over 10% of their shots are going in), meaning they are really lucky – the median is 7.9 percent.  In addition, the Flames have had the fewest percentage of their faceoffs in the offensive zone at 27 percent.  Lastly, their possession numbers (which aren’t easily explained) are bottom-five, with terrible teams like Buffalo Ottawa, and Colorado.

This is almost a repeat of the Avalanche last year, who had a great shooting percentage and somehow defied advanced stats to win their division.  Rabid Dibbles and Bits readers will remember I predicted the Flames to go far in the future, but this year seems too early.

The Alleged Mess

Toronto Maple Leafs (11-8-2; 24 points)

I’ve recently learned just how much the Canadian market focuses on the Leafs.  They are by no means the mess that is being portrayed by much of the Canadian media right now.  They remain very much in the picture, and honestly the change going forward must come in net.  James Reimer has played nine games, and boasts a save percentage below the magic 90 percent.  That’s terrible, and clearly there needs to be something done in net for the Leafs.  Despite goal being a big issue, Toronto right now is not necessarily a playoff team.  Less than 30 percent of their face-offs are in the offensive zone, and their advanced possession numbers indicate a team that does not do well with the puck.  But, at fourth in goals-per-game, maybe all that is irrelevant. 

A Jolly Good Punch-Up

There’s a donnybrook brewing in the Old World, and it pertains to an old sport.  FIFA (the international organizing body for global soccer), has its name splayed over European headlines yet again.

For Americans who know FIFA only as the title of a popular game franchise, the organization has come under increased fire in the past couple of years.  The various accusations against it are centered on corruption, and John Oliver describes many of them well.

At the end of his explanation/rant, Oliver discusses the bidding for the 2022 World Cup, which went to the unbearably hot (and unbearably oppressive) nation of Qatar.  Given the temperatures of 120+ and the draconian conditions placed on migrant workers, this choice was bound to elicit outrage.  It certainly doesn’t take a soccer expert to know that standing feels awful in 120-degree heat, so soccer must be particularly gruesome.  Calls to move the 2022 World Cup to other nations or to winter have gained in volume as a result.  So how did Qatar receive the tournament in the first place?

Last week, FIFA published a summary (note, just a summary) of an investigatory report into the bidding process that resulted in Russia and Qatar receiving the 2018 and 2022 tournaments.  The resulting document cleared the Russian and Qatari delegations of any wrongdoing, while devoting significant time to the transgressions of the Football Association (FA), the governing body for soccer in England.  Among the allegations is the charge that a member of the voting board used the FA to support charity events in Trinidad & Tobago and also asked FA officials to help an acquaintance of his find a job.  The member of the board has since resigned under the cloud of a separate corruption investigation.  But, the final verdict accused the FA of “undermining the bid process.”

The response?  “Such tomfoolery will not be tolerated, and you, FIFA, are a most despicable cad, wot, wot!”

The report has been a burr in the British saddles, and a former FA head declared this weekend that UEFA (the pan-European soccer body…another acronym for an overlong French organization title) should boycott the World Cup as a result.  His comments received further fuel from Michael Garcia, the author of the full report (remember, the offensive document is just a summary).  Garcia said the summary misrepresented the facts and conclusions of the underlying report, and many now would like to see the full report published, including the president of the German Football League and the current head of the FA.

As an American, I remain separated from the personalities and dynamics of FIFA.  But, it is clear that oil pricing mechanisms have more transparency than this organization.  Despite taking large umbrage at activities that wouldn’t bat an eye in almost any powerful capital in the world, the Russian delegation submitted inadequate documentation due to “lost emails” and still remains in FIFA’s favor.  (Sidenote: is anyone else tired, yet grudgingly appreciative, of the “lost email” excuse?  Who knew it had such power!  I bet A-Rod and Lance Armstrong wish they had thought of that one.)  This seems especially difficult to believe given the Russian government’s strongarm tactics with political dissidents and anatomically-named rock bands.  They probably offered the members jobs without even being asked.

Of course, I was nowhere near the negotiations.  But the whole thing stinks, particularly given what is known about FIFA and the governments involved.  After picking two countries known for being different manifestations of Shakespeare’s Iago, and then impugning one of the most robust football associations in the world, FIFA should answer its critics.  The World Cup remains a worthy outlet for sports fans all over the world, but eventually FIFA’s pockmarks will carry over to the tournament if this goes unnoticed.  Vigilance and outrage might be the best way to keep the tournament at its height.

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Revisiting the Trade

After traveling to Maine, I hoped I might return to a different Redskins landscape.  That was wishful thinking, to say the least, so I found myself waxing nostalgic of times past.  And if there’s one moment that deserves to be revisited, it’s the Portis-Bailey trade, particularly during the week in which Champ Bailey says goodbye to the game.

What makes the trade so memorable is its unique character.  Not only is the NFL notoriously trade-shy, but Pro Bowl caliber players are not normally traded, especially for each other.

At the time, the trade seemed to make some sense.  The Redskins’ leading rusher in the 2003 season was Trung Canidate, with 600 yards on the ground.  Steve Spurrier was out as head coach, meaning a reversion to a new offensive scheme seemed likely.  Portis had just completed two 1500+ yard seasons in Denver, and was named to the Pro Bowl.

Bailey, a top-10 overall pick in 1999, had a contract renegotiation coming after the 2003 season.  And things looked stormy, given his four straight Pro Bowls and amassing 17 interceptions since joining the NFL.  He was due for a large raise.  When Denver popped up as a destination, he jumped at the opportunity, given their 10-6 record the year before and Washington’s habitual ineptitude.

The results of this deal are tough to interpret.  Portis put up 1200 yards or more in four of his first five DC seasons, during which time the Skins made the playoffs twice.  Bailey went to Denver at the peak of his powers, and continued his dominance.  He went to three straight Pro Bowls, and was named an All-Pro during those first three seasons in Denver. 

After Portis’ first five seasons, his production dropped dramatically, primarily due to injury.  He would be gone from the team in 2010, and never played another NFL game.  Bailey, on the other hand, played at a high level until the 2012 playoffs, where he was exposed particularly during the game against the Broncos.  He played only five games last year, was released by Denver, and was unable to make a roster prior to this season.

For a long time, I thought the results of this trade overwhelmingly favored Denver.  Upon further re-evaluation, it seems like this trade still was a better deal for Denver, but the Skins gained a key asset for their team.  Realistically, NFL trades are tough to forecast, particularly when running backs are involved.  I find it tough to believe that Washington saw Bailey playing at such a high level for so long (Bailey added seven Pro Bowls to his resume while in Denver).  That said, given the gradual disappearance of the workhorse running back, that Portis put up such great numbers in his first five years is remarkable.  It would be tough to blame the trade for the team’s failures during those years, as Portis was undoubtedly exceptional.

But, Denver won this trade.  Bailey was easily one of the elite cornerbacks during his tenure there, and I would bet only one Pro Bowl invite was on reputation rather than performance.  To exacerbate matters, the Washington pass defense became absolutely porous during the Gibbs and Zorn years, partially due to the tragic death of Sean Taylor but mainly due to an obvious lack of talent.  The Broncos had only two sub-.500 years with Bailey in the secondary, and teams quickly learned not to throw his way.  To top it off, Bailey will unquestionably be a Hall of Famer, likely on his first year of eligibility.

I wish I had more time to watch Champ Bailey in DC.  He’s had a great career, and deserves all the accolades.  (Unlike the Redskins, who as I write this are on their way to losing to the one-win Buccaneers).

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A Tarred Name

It doesn’t get much worse than what was revealed this week.  UNC, the gem of the North Carolina public school system and a perennial basketball powerhouse, cheated.  And, for the first time in a while, we’re not talking about improper benefits, ill-timed text messages, or money for food.  This is academic fraud.

For those who haven’t followed, a thorough investigation by former federal prosecutor Kenneth Wainstein has revealed that athletes at UNC were enrolled in “paper classes.”  These classes (a generous term) appeared on the course options as part of the African-American Studies department.  A professor, named Julius Nyang’oro, was listed as the ostensible instructor of the class.  In truth, these classes were operated by Deborah Crowder, assistant to Nyang’oro, who would hand out paper assignments and do all of the grading.

The use of quotes is a necessity when discussing these “classes”, since the “grading” was really Crowder assigning grades under the professor’s name on final papers.  The word “fluff” is used in the report to describe the actual written products.  Athletes took advantage of these classes.  In a particularly revealing stat, 47.4 percent of students in these classes were student-athletes between 199-2011.  What’s worse, athletes received an average grade of about a B plus (3.55), which compares fairly poorly to the average grade of B minus (2.84) for athletes in other African-American studies classes.

This favorable treatment did not escape the academic counselors for the football and basketball teams.  According to the report, football counselors sent lists to Crowder of players that should be enrolled in these classes, and in some cases told her what grade the player needed to keep playing.  Basketball counselors also “routinely” arranged for players to enroll in these classes.

This scheme helped about 3100 UNC students, but the report does not ascribe any knowledge of the shady curriculum to the athletic program or any coaches.  Roy Williams, the basketball coach, allegedly grew concerned about how many players majored in African- and Afro-American Studies.  The report also details that the number of basketball players in the department grew to be negligible by 2009.

There is, however, one more disturbing portion of this: I remain skeptical that there aren’t schools or academic counselors out there now that aren’t also steering athletes to specific “gut courses.”  In this report, a PowerPoint presentation is described where the academic counselors admit to placing athletes in courses in which “they didn’t have to pay attention or necessarily engage with the material.”  I will add that presentation was given in 2009 to athletic officials (including football coach Butch Davis) after it was learned that Crowder would be retiring soon.

UNC certainly is a hallmark athletic program, meaning it is not surprising that counselors would do what they can to inflate grades.  In fact, it is in the interest of any school to keep its athletes, especially in the big revenue sports, in academic good-standing.  But to steer athletes to classes where they needn’t do anything academic is malfeasance.  I would understand telling a star player to take a bunch of Psych courses because they require less work.  But that is different from no work.  That’s a separate issue entirely, and practices like this undercut further the myth of amateurism that permeates NCAA procedures.

UNC deserves some credit for commissioning multiple investigations since the first allegations in 2011.  And, much of the penance has been served by UNC already, after losing 16 football wins, 15 scholarships, and eligibility for the 2012 postseason.

If the NCAA wants to stop this once and for all, the ideal situation would be NCAA-sanctioned academic counselors for UNC.  That won’t ever happen, and a GPA requirement wouldn’t actually solve the problem, but deeper scholarship cuts might actually be the best remedy here.  It avoids the fruitless vacating of wins penalty while also forcing coaches and athletic directors to take a greater interest in the academic stuff.  No one wants to play shorthanded, and scholarships are the key recruiting tool.  Of course, for that to work, these cuts would have to be really deep, so much so that teams at UNC might have a really hard time competing.

Whatever it decides, this is a key moment for the NCAA.  Give this a good look and avoid missteps of the past, and they might find the best solution.  It needs to be strong, though, or else the NCAA will keep losing its ever tenuous hold on the organization of college athletics.

Bits #1:  Notre Dame

I’ve waited almost a week to tell my Notre Dame friends (and other sympathizers) that the offensive pass interference call last weekend was the correct call.  Watch the play again right now.  Neither wide receiver attempts to run a route, in fact pushing back the defensive backs with their arms.  The flag also is not late, it’s thrown at the same time the ball is in the air.  Video is a wonderful invention, please use it.

The McNabb Malady

There’s no schedule for Dibbles and Bits.  I do what I can, when I can.  But this week, for the first time in a while, I have two posts on consecutive days.  The reason?  I’m tired of Donovan McNabb.

I’ve known he’s a little more than worthless for a while now, but for whatever reason a news story today started my mind racing.  In a radio interview, McNabb said Jay Cutler, the Bears quarterback, is “the Tony Romo of the Midwest.”  In full, he said:

"He's the Tony Romo of the Midwest.  Can he play in this league? Absolutely, he's proven that. But a quarterback is measured by your body of work, meaning your wins and losses record, the numbers you put up. And the end-all be-all is how many playoff wins do you have? How many playoff appearances do you have? If you only have one to show for almost a decade of play that means you can't lead your team to the playoffs.   The question is why?  Because you're so talented, the potential is there, but why haven't you been able to do it? You can only say for so long that it's been the talent. They have some talent around Cutler, that's never been the issue. Now can you put it all together? To be honest, the answer is no.""

McNabb was a good quarterback in his day, and he has some legitimacy to discuss QBs and their ability to lead teams.  He went to the NFC Championship Game five times with one Super Bowl appearance.  He’s also 17^th on the all-time passing yards list (for the time being). 

And yet, this is another example of the McNabb Malady.  Symptoms may vary, but the prevailing effect is the belief by the patient that people care about his football opinion.  This belief, often irrational, is expressed through speculative opinions that are based on the patient’s larger-than-life belief in himself as a football genius.

Many of you may think I’m harsh, but McNabb has not acquitted himself terribly well since becoming a member of the media.  He clearly enjoys an inflated opinion of himself.  In 2013, he told anyone who would listen that RGIII should heed his advice when it came to dealing with the Shanahan regime in DC. He then antagonized most of the South when he referred to NASCAR driver Jimmie Johnson as “definitely not an athlete.”  He also led the “Brady and Belichick era is over” charge this year, only to see them rattle off three straight victories.

I admit freely that some portion of this post is motivated by McNabb’s abysmal performance when he played for the Redskins.  He was a disappointment, and basically got called out for being unable to jog 100 yards by Mike Shanahan.  And he wonders why RGIII doesn’t look to him for advice?  But there’s been a pattern of behavior here that goes beyond team loyalties.

The most recent kerfuffle over Cutler and Romo does have an element of truth to it.  Neither QB has been “great”, with nothing approaching McNabb’s 9-7 postseason record.  But was McNabb really that much better than either of these guys?  Eye test tells me he and Cutler have been about equal based on this point of their careers, and the numbers bear that out for the most part.  Through 105 games, Cutler has 24,612 yards and 159 touchdowns.  McNabb at the same point had 23,860 yards and 160 touchdowns.  Romo has about 8,000 more yards than McNabb did after 114 games, and a whopping 54 more touchdowns.  Note: McNabb didn’t throw many picks compared to either Romo or Cutler, so there’s some mitigating stats here. 

It strikes me that Donovan McNabb thinks he was a winner, and therefore a step above Cutler and Romo.  But the straight numbers above don’t encapsulate McNabb’s inability to win without Andy Reid as his coach.  Good quarterbacks transcend their systems, and he clearly didn’t do that.  Both Cutler and Romo have had plenty of coordinators in their day, and yet they have equal or better numbers.  He doesn’t have much room to criticize these guys if he does think he stands above them.

I digress.  I have no interest in defending either Cutler or Romo.  The focus here is on a former NFLer who certainly isn’t in the media based on the accuracy of his opinions.  He has been quick to judge sports situations, bases many of his thoughts on what he thinks he knows (except for the discussion on NASCAR drivers, because they aren’t athletes), and then repeats the same progression the next time some radio station brings him on the air.  That he continues to generate news stories is a sad state of sports media.

Rant concluded.