Ryder Cup 2012

One Sunday every two years I watch golf rather than football.  I substitute the obnoxious musings of Cris Collinsworth (or Solomon Wilcotts, who might be the worst analyst of them all) for the arrogant interjections of Johnny Miller.  The soothing sounds of birds, the outdoors, and golf balls overtake my revelry in the FedEx Field symphony.

Yes, it’s the Ryder Cup.  The competition features teams from both the United States and Europe in a three day tournament, all in pursuit of a small trophy that looks neither impressive nor worthwhile.  Yet, the Ryder Cup represents the pinnacle of golf’s international competition, a time when the paycheck doesn’t matter, only the team and country.  The drama we feel during the back nine on any given Sunday permeates every second of the tournament.  For three whole days, golfers play matches, where your stroke doesn’t matter, only that you beat the guy across from you.

Since 1999, the U.S. team has won once, four years ago at Valhalla in Kentucky.  Their team dominated that competition, but two years ago the Europeans reclaimed the Cup after a tense match between Graeme McDowell and Hunter Mahan that came down to the final two holes.  And that’s another reason to watch: almost every year, the competition comes down to the final two or three singles matches on Sunday afternoon.  The War by the Shore in 1991, the miracle at Brookline in 1999, and the aforementioned Celtic Manor contest on 2010 all serve as excellent reminders of why the competition deserves your attention.

With that, I will get to my thoughts on the respective teams:

United States

On paper, the current iteration of the U.S. team looks to be our deepest in a long time.  Ten of the twelve sit in the top 17 of Golf’s World rankings, and have played very well up to this point.  11 have posted a top ten in the last month, and seven finished in the top ten at the Tour Championship last week.  Brandt Snedeker enters the competition off his momentous FedEx Cup victory in which he shot an under-par round on Sunday to beat out seasoned superstars like Tiger and Rory.  Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson both won majors this year and made the final 30 of the FedEx Cup, a solid punctuation mark on a successful year.  Matt Kucher won The Players, Jason Dufner and Zach Johnson both won twice on tour this year, while Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker, and Furyk largely speak for themselves.

Worries: While the U.S. looks to have a good team, the returning players have not historically played well in the competition.  Only Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker can boast a .500 record at 3-3-1 over their careers, and that’s the highest win percentage on the U.S. team.  To that end, the American hopes center around the rookies Simpson, Snedeker, Dufner, and Keegan Bradley, the 2010 PGA champ.  While all four guys had very good seasons, the pressure can mount on these players easily.

The Guy Who Must Step Up: Not surprisingly, I have to focus on the big guns here.  Tiger has not dominated his Cup performances (13-14-2), but he lost only once in 2010.  His pairing with Steve Stricker, likely the only reason Stricker made the roster as a captain’s pick, has borne fruit in recent years.  Look for Tiger and Stricker to play together every session, unless captain Davis Love III holds one (or both) out.

The real goat, though, has been Phil Mickelson.  Lefty has a record of 11-17-6 in this tournament, not befitting a man of his immense talent.  In the last two Ryder Cups, Mickelson has won only once when paired with a partner.  With his personality and strategic focus (he’s been known to lay out every shot weeks ahead of time for some tournaments), that needs to change.  Captains consistently portray him as horse to be ridden, but he has been unable to shoulder that burden the last two Cups.  Should Phil play as badly as he has, 2012 might go wrong in a hurry.  For the big guys, like Tiger and Phil, their success will keep pressure off the less experienced team members.

Dark Horse: Back in the day, Corey Pavin elevated his game every year for the Ryder Cup.  The man, quite frankly, possessed a killer instinct that pushed him to beat his opponents every year.  His singles win against Richardson in ’91, punctuated by a great bunker shot on 17, still brings chills to my spine when watching it.  Every year, there should be a Corey Pavin remake (preferably matching Pavin’s fantastic 90s mustache).

I’m pegging Jason Dufner to fill that role.  Dufner consistently impresses analysts and fans alike with his mental and emotional consistency on the course.  Nothing fazes him…he almost won three straight tournaments mid-season and his “I’m ordering a pizza” expression never changed. That’s the guy I tie my hopes to.

Another rookie to watch will be Snedeker.  While generally it’s tough to come back from a big win like he’s had and do well in the Ryder Cup, Snedeker makes almost every putt from within 8 feet.  He’s also the best putter on Tour, ranking first in strokes gained from putting during the majority of the season, not to mention averaging only 27.92 putts a round.  In match play, those putts have a higher importance, and I can see him pulling a few rabbits out of his hat on the greens.

Best Partnership: While I’m tempted to put Woods/Stricker and label that the best, Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar could easily form an unbeatable team this year.  Johnson can pound the ball, while Kuchar is known as an excellent iron player who can hit it close.  I’m not sure how they would get along from a personal perspective, but in alternate shot (traditionally a weak spot for the Americans), they have really good ability.

In addition, expect Simpson/Bubba to play well as a tandem.  They went 3-1 in last year’s President’s Cup and will likely provide a strong base for the team portions.

Europeans

The Europeans come in with some question marks.  On their team, only Nicholas Colsearts has never played in the Ryder Cup, but overall the team loses depth as you scroll down the list.  Martin Kaymer, a PGA champ, has not played well at all this year after rising to the top ranking in the world a couple of years ago.  He sneaked onto the team and could be a liability for the Europeans come Sunday.  Another shocking entrant is Paul Lawrie who, at 43, strikes me as one of the most unlikely Ryder Cup participants in the last few years.  He’s played great throughout the year (contended at The Open Championship in July) but only has one Ryder Cup under his belt, meaning age does not equate to experience in this case.  Of course, Rory, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, and Justin Rose are all top 10 golfers this year, so they provide firepower for the team.  Add in Sergio Garcia, back on the team after missing 2010, and there is still some talent there.

Cause for Optimism: These guys might be labeled underdogs, but Europe remains extremely shifty in Ryder Cups.  In years past, predicting their play has never been easy, as they consistently find ways to win the Cup despite a supposed talent gap.  All but three on the 2012 team boast winning records in Ryder Cups, and the talent at the top should pair easily with the lower tier golfers.  I still expect some teams and individuals to throw away matches for Europe, but that will come down to how mtachups shake out.  If Kaymer were to be paired with Keegan Bradley, for example, he might be able to steal a victory.  I’m hopeful Paul Lawire and Jim Furyk meet as elder statesmen on Sunday, but given Furyk’s late round troubles this season that kind of matchup could also favor Europe.

The Guy Who Must Step Up: Believe it or not, I’m pegging Colsearts as the man who might hold the key to Europe’s victory.  As a captain’s pick, Colsearts brings impeccable match play abilities, winning the Volvo Match Play Championship back in April (beating Justin Rose, Paul Lawrie, and Brandt Snedeker along the way).  He also contended at The Open Championship this year, finishing tied for seventh.  Remember him tied for the lead during Saturday of the U.S. Open?  Same guy, same swing, same Belgian.   Colsearts averaged 317.7 off the tee on the European Tour this year, so he can provide the power necessary in a good alternate shot and fourball team.  If he does very well, the Europeans have a much better chance to overshadow the potential holes in their lineup.

Dark Horses: Europe’s roster might not look deep, but Ian Poulter and Justin Rose can be unbeatable in this competition.  Poulter, a fiery personality and tough competitor, has a gaudy 8-3 record despite never entering the competition with much fanfare.  He’s as good as anyone in scrambling and winning matches.  He provides enough experience to do well in a team and enough willpower to win tight singles matches.

For Rose, his game remains very steady.  In his second Cup appearance, Rose enters ranked in the top 5 in the world and off a successful performance in the FedEx Cup, finishing second at the Tour Championship.  In his last Ryder Cup, Rose went 3-1 to help the European cause in an ultimately losing effort, but his style of play could win a few matches while inspiring a few yawns.

Best Partnership: A noted advantage of the European team remains their ability to pair effectively.  Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell, personal friends, have shown an ability to keep matches very close, losing one match in 2010 1-down and halving their other contest.  To that end, the McIlroy/McDowell tandem could cause serious problems for the U.S.

But, the best historical pairing will put Luke Donald and Sergio Garcia alongside one another.  Good buddies like the Northern Irishmen, Donald/Garcia have a record of 4-0-0 in the Ryder Cup, making them nigh unbeatable together.  Only Woods/Stricker comes close to matching that on the American side, but it remains very likely Garcia and Donald will not leave each other’s sight all weekend.  That will be a tough pairing to face from the American side.

Finally, Ian Poulter and Justin Rose paired together in 2008 and went 2-1-0 together.  They will likely also be paired again and, given their mutual affinity as Englishmen, will provide what I envision as a tough out for the Americans.

Final Prediction

While the singles matches receive the most hype, the Ryder Cup is won through a strong foundation in the team sessions.  Since 1997, the team leading heading into the singles portion has won all but once (the Comeback in 1999).  The one tie, in 2002, led to a European romp in singles.  For the Americans, they need to reach Saturday night either tied or ahead.  While their team poses more depth in singles play, the pressure will mount on those guys Sunday if the U.S. must dig itself out of a hole.  Above all else, the U.S. need at least 1 ½ points in each session…in 2010 Saturday morning offered only ½ point for the Americans, which proved to represent a key part of the difference at the end.

Still, I foresee a fairly equal competition, in which case I have to go with the home team.  U.S. 14.5, Europe 13.5

Bit #1: Finally the madness ends

By now, you’ve all heard we have reached a merciful end to the Replacement Era of NFL referees.  Thankfully, the Week 4 games will now have professional crews officiating, a welcome sign after the debacle of Monday night’s game in Seattle.  For the NFL, I’m glad the apocalyptic situation many sports fans hoped for actually came true.  Not only did the Monday night ridiculousness force the NFL to bring back the refs, but the league must now confront its image as an organization willing to cut corners for more money.  Fans will still enjoy the NFL’s product, but we as a group learned more about the inner philosophy of league executives and owners in the last three weeks than could have ever been hoped for.

The truth remains…the NFL attempted to cut the corner here, gambling that by driving the ball over the heard of zebras, their ball could still land in the fairway.  From this point on, however, the NFL now knows the integrity of the game not only matters but can change the public’s perception.  In the United States, we feed off controversial statements and images, so the endearing legacy of the replacement refs was bound to bring in huge ratings on Monday night.  The public will never stop watching football, but at least now we have our eyes wide open to the league as an institution.  The on-field product suffered due to a money grab by the league, and they were justly burned for it.  The lockout last summer, another example of greed in the NFL, did not affect the on-filed product, leading many of us to still be in denial as to what makes the NFL powers-that-be tick.

Thankfully, we all know now that money will never stop running the league and talks louder than any blogger, pundit, talking head, or player. 

Bit #2: Five weeks of college football already?

Three days from now, we will have gone through five weeks of college football.  Sounds amazing, but some teams already need to reboot their seasons and, thankfully, have time to do so.  The obvious choice, Oklahoma, must get over its disappointment and understand that if they can win out, a national championship berth is not out of the question.  Of course, being mauled by Kansas State at home does not bode well for this team, but considering the QB for K-State looks to be the Heisman frontrunner, they should not feel so bad.  Virginia Tech is another reboot project, who needs to coast through the Coastal Division (see what I did there?) to pose any kind of threat to Florida State for the conference championship.  Above all else, the losses to inferior teams can’t continue for the Hokies.  Given that they achieved that last year until the end of the year, Tech can still make itself relevant.

The Big Ten as a conference needs help.  Very few of their teams look to be dangerous, and the only one that could pose problems can’t play in the postseason.  After rough losses by both Michigan and Michigan State, the struggles of Nebraska and Wisconsin, and the significant dropoff in depth, the conference will likely have a forgettable 2012 season.  For the rest of the year, Big Ten games likely won’t mean much to the national title picture, unless Northwestern somehow goes undefeated.

The Inaccurate Reception

I’m still a little clueless about what happened at the end of the Monday night game this week.  For those of you who somehow missed it because you had DVRed the Emmys, the referees on the field awarded a touchdown to Seattle on the last play from scrimmage.  Receiver Golden Tate and cornerback M.D. Jennings supposedly caught the ball simultaneously, which by rule implies shared possession.  Like “tie goes to the runner” in baseball, the offensive player retains possession of the ball.

I could go on a long time about the inaccuracy of the call on the field, since clearly Jennings brought the ball to his body with full possession.  Placing two hands or forearms on the ball while it’s held tight to the chest of another player does not create “simultaneous possession.”  The inability of replacement refs, however, to follow a common sense procedure doomed this call to the annals of the Tuck Rule and Tony Tarasco.  Over the course of the season, replacement refs, in an attempt to call games properly, conferenced repeatedly.  That many zebras in a group would qualify as a herd, and the herd circled the wagons a lot these last three weeks.  But, last night, when one ref signaled interception and the other signaled touchdown, no conference ensued, chaos ensued.  When two refs disagree like that, they need to discuss the call on the field, especially since replay apparently offers very little to overturn a simultaneous catch ruling.  While the game reached new levels of weirdness with the Packers required to return to the field for a meaningless extra point, the officials did not adjudicate differences fairly.  Somehow, the two end zone officials did not talk, and then when they gave conflicting signals, the rest of the crew didn’t talk amongst themselves.  The head referee, minutes removed from a miserable roughing the passer call, should have run straight for his crewmates, not for the replay booth on the sideline.

In the end, while I as a football fan could not be more appalled, the NFL deserves every minute of this pain.  The experiment with replacement refs could not have worked out any worse, and while we are discussing one regular season game, it would not be shocking to see the Packers and Seahawks separated by one game come playoff time, all due to a poor call.  Privately, I have given Roger Goodell praise for addressing player safety using very tangible, thoughtful avenues without worrying about player scorn.  Right now, he looks like a moron.  A commissioner who watched last night’s game should understand the damage being done to the brand of the NFL.  He should then call his head negotiator (after a glass of hard stuff), and direct the team to give the regular referees whatever they want.  Staunch the bleeding, stop the madness, fry the bacon…all these phrases apply.

But, I said he should, not that he would.  Roger Goodell knows people will continue to watch the games, even with poor officiating, so why feel compelled to bring back the regular guys?  Apparently, significant gaps still exist between both parties, and it doesn’t appear doors are being broken to mend those gaps, so we might be here for a while.  At a certain point, we as fans may need to look to the players for some kind of resolution.  A players’ strike would be so unlikely, given the foregone paychecks, but might force the hand of the NFL to change its tune.  At this point, that sounds as good an option as any.  Whatever happens, I hope but do not expect the NFL to budge in bringing back the real referees.  Demand for the NFL remains inelastic, with tons of people watching even if the product looks to be flawed.  Still, when it comes down to it, the league banked on consistent ratings and figured officials wouldn’t change that, even if they missed some calls.  In the media world, they refer to that as a ratings ploy.  So, while we cry for the product and integrity of football, we should heap scorn on a league that might have stopped the madness many times but never did.  Don't hold your breath, folks...we may see this again next week.

Should've Seen This Coming

Week 1 looked alright, Week 2 middling, and Week 3 nauseating.  Replacement officials hijacked multiple games this past weekend, digging deep into their bag of tricks to make still more bad calls.  The result: a general decline in the NFL’s product, not just by officials but also by players and coaches.

For the new guys on the block, coming from Division III to the NFL made only a smidgeon of sense to begin with.  Now, these dudes look to be out of their element every game of every week.  I wrote the truth last week: missed calls are not something to complain about as a fan.  Full-time referees miss calls all the time (i.e. offensive holding on almost every pass rush), and will often not be consistent with their flags.  But, the full-time NFL officials can always be relied upon for procedural integrity.  The spot of the ball, proper administration of penalties, dispensing with challenges and timeouts…all become a point of controversy once a month with full-time officials.  Even then, the scrutiny always focuses on a challenge or booth review, not improper yardage after a penalty.

Yesterday, the Lions and Redskins received 15-yard penalties, but lost 20-25 yards.  Those measurements, elementary to seasoned referees, take on added significance during the Replacement Era.  For the Lions, the penalty was enforced in OT, moving the Titans closer to a game-winning field goal.  While almost everyone can accept poor calls, I wonder if Division III only uses the metric system, based on the mathematical calculations from these referees.  Fifteen yards does not differ by state (the Constitution hopefully took care of this a while ago), and these refs have a pow-wow for every 5-yard penalty, first to discuss it, then to walk off the yardage.  All that time spent conferencing has led to a huge increase in the average time of games.  Yet again, the late game on Sunday went for 3.5 hours without reaching overtime (Raiders-Steelers).  At that rate, CBS will have to broadcast 60 Minutes in podcast form (since we all know the thing you most want to watch after a 3.5 hour football game are dueling interviews between presidential candidates).  While football fans are devoted, the cost of being bludgeoned repeatedly by poor refereeing can only go so far.

Bucs DT Gerald McCoy, however, made a great point on Sunday afternoon after losing to the Cowboys.  He reminded a reporter “no ref wants to go out there and make a bad call.”  He’s right.  The marks on my table might indicate my personal hatred towards replacement refs, but truthfully the league should never be in this situation.  While there are core economic differences between the refs and league, the NFL’s product suffers weekly.  These transplants from Division III continue to display their ineptitude, despite well-intentioned attempts to call games properly.  They can’t keep up with the NFL’s speed, intensity, or personalities.

That’s right, personalities.  Lost amidst the furor surrounding poor on-field arbitration is the incessantly immature behavior of coaches and players.  The Ravens-Patriots game Sunday night remains fresh in my memory on this score.  Bill Belichick, a Hall of Fame coach and arguably the best since Bill Walsh, grabbed the side judge’s arm after the judge signaled the game-winning field goal was good.  The ref, trying to run off the field, didn’t stop or look back.  With all due respect to Belichick, does he think grabbing these guys will change their minds next week?  Not only does such contact do very little to ingratiate coaches to the replacements, but he broke a cardinal rule in major sports.  You do not make sudden physical contact with referees or umpires.  NFL coaches receive a little more leniency on the sidelines, but in the wake of a call that doesn’t go your way, absolutely nothing allows you to grab a ref.  In any other sport, he would be fined $10K and suspended a few games.  In the NFL, he deserves a fine. (A brief aside for Boston fans: the Ravens received more penalties and yardage than your team, and you gave up over 500 yards of offense.  Complain about that and not the officiating…but wait, I’m addressing Boston fans so clearly any reasonable expectation of your team’s performance in relation to officiating doesn’t exist.)  I find it funny as well that Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco complains weekly about refs while receiving not one but two extra challenges in Sunday’s game.  The coaches understand what they’re doing…intimidating and bullying guys who have not been to these parts before now.  The league finally stepped in to make clear that behavior wouldn’t be tolerated. 

But, in general, the coaches who make the most stink about replacement refs lose these games on the field, and normally not because of the refs.  Broncos coach John Fox couldn’t contain the red in his face after last Monday night, blubbering about poor officiating and various other topics of little interest.  And why were they of little interest?  Because his quarterback threw three picks in the first 8 minutes of gameplay.  I don’t see the refs in that, John.  Nor do I see the refs in 500 yards allowed by the Patriots defense last night, Bill.  Go back to the drawing board and re-tool.  The Redskins were inside the 20 yesterday before losing 25 yards in penalties, one being an improperly measured unsportsmanlike conduct call that did not make any sense.  And yet, ‘Skins fans like me shouldn’t complain…we can’t play that poorly in the first half and expect to win the game.  No ifs ands or buts about it.

For the players, they have joined in.  Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco bored media to tears complaining about refs after losses, but weren’t heard from after wins.  While that might be natural, the amount of attention lavished on refs comes overwhelmingly from losing teams.  If the refs have lost their credibility (and they have), players should also suffer the same skepticism when they complain loudly after a loss.  I have no doubt if the Ravens lost Sunday night’s game, our ears would be overwhelmed by a cacophony of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Joe Flacco, etc. explaining how poorly the refs performed.  But, on Monday, silence reigns.  Seriously, losers will whine.  Replacement refs don’t mean losers deserve more attention than before.

Overall, the NFL product suffers, but there’s plenty of blame to go around.  Replacement refs are, obviously, bad at officiating NFL games.  Which begs the question of why they are here in the first place.  Lay that at the NFL’s feet for refusing to see the frustration of fans and continuing the farce of Division III and Arena Football refs refereeing at the highest level.  But, for all the confusion, we should not lose sight of the tactics employed by coaches who continue to intimidate the new blood on the field.  Even when their team plays poorly, coaches now refuse to accept anything caused the loss except the officials.  I, for one, am tired of the whole mess.  The NFL needs to bring back the full-time refs to stop the madness.

Bit #1: Redskins Loss to Bengals

To get it out of the way early, the unsportsmanlike call on the Redskins at the end of the game should not have been called and definitely should not have been improperly measured.  Still, that penalty did not cost the game for Washington.  The offense, so good in the last two weeks, did not score until their first drive of the second half.  I do think play calling in the first half precipitated a lot of the offensive problems, since the Skins had no plays of 20+ yards at halftime, but the real problem rests with the offensive line.  Robert Griffin took a pounding, being sacked 6 times for 53 yards (a particular sack at the end of the game adding insult to injury) and consistently taking hits.  While Trent Williams left the game early, the pass blocking has jumped off a cliff since an overachieving performance in Week 1.

But, like last week, the defense lost this game.  For whatever reason, the Skins could not stop the Red Rocket in the second half when needed.  While we can go back and forth on the causes of that, I will focus on the safeties.  I have absolutely no idea who picked this lot of good-for-nothing degenerates, but they need to go.  Safety coverage created both long Bengal TDs to A.J. Green and Andrew Hawkins.  On the Green play, Gomes looked lost covering one of the better receivers in the league, and the Hawkins play yet again exposed Gomes, who drifted away from Hawkins despite rookie Richard Crawford lining up opposite the speedy wide receiver.  Mdieu Williams, Gomes’ counterpart, also watched more than participated.  The Redskins have scored in bunches thus far but cannot pull away from their opponents.  In this game, the offense came back to tie the contest, before the defensive units betrayed that momentum.  Offensive line and safeties needs serious, serious help.

Bit #2: FedEx Cup ends memorable PGA season

In a little known event on Sunday, Brandt Snedeker won the FedEx Cup, ending the professional golf season.  Snedeker’s play on Sunday clearly set him up for the win, as he was the only player in the last five groups to finish his round under par.  Winning $10 million as a bonus certainly will make the winter sweeter for Snedeker.

Overall, the culmination of the season puts to rest one of the better golfing tours in recent memory, even if the major winners weren’t necessarily memorable.  While few will remember Webb Simpson winning at Olympic Club, 2012 contained its share of surprises.  Bubba Watson, the sober John Daly, won the green jacket with a characteristic contortion of a golf shot.  Ernie Els turned back the clock, winning an Open Championship that will be remembered for Adam Scott’s ridiculous collapse.  But, the season turned on the fates of two guys.  For Tiger Woods, three wins put him back in the spotlight, and his play at majors this year certainly bodes well for the future.  Rory McIlroy, anointed the latest “next Tiger,” finally proved his skeptics wrong by finishing the season on a torrid pace, winning three of his last five PGA tournaments.

Overall, I’m excited for next year, only because the biggest names in golf played to their potential this year.  For the first time in a while, the FedEx Cup actually garnered interest as an institution, featuring the top players at the top of their games.  A great Ryder Cup this weekend will serve to make the season special.

Bit #3: Baseball happenings

Apparently, now is the time to be watching baseball.  No one told me, but the MLB season winds down over the course of the next week and a few intriguing storylines still exist.

For one, the Nationals clinched a playoff berth over the weekend, beating the Dodgers 4-1.  A Washington baseball team has not made the postseason since 1933, so the 2012 Nationals have already proved their worth historically.  Elsewhere in the NL, the second wild card berth suddenly looks to be in flux.  The defending champion St. Louis Cardinals, middling for much of this season, have a 2.5 game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers, who unfortunately have not been able to catch the Cards.  While it looks likely the Cards will take the spot, they finish the season with series against division leaders Washington and Cincinnati.  The Brewers, on the other hand, finish with Houston, Cincinnati, and San Diego to close the season.  Depending on how the schedules shake out, Milwaukee might be able to eke it out.

In the AL, drama happens every day.  The Yankees and Orioles cannot seem to get rid of one another, matching each other win-for-win over the past week and a half.  The O’s, still one game back, need to win the division.  By winning the division, Baltimore would forego the Wild Card game and play the AL Central champ.  The wild card berth brings the Wild Card game into effect and the behemoth Rangers out in Texas.  The difference will be astronomical.  But, the Yankees finish with an easier stretch than Baltimore, so chances are not good of Baltimore winning the division outright.  Still, wouldn’t a play-in game for the divisional crown be awesome?  In the AL Central, the White Sox have lost their last five and can send presents to the Tigers for similarly falling flat over the past week.  The Tigers, however, finish with series against only Minnesota and Kansas City, while the White Sox finish with the Indians and the Rays.  On the face of it, advantage Detroit, but the season has been so disappointing for the Tigers, no one knows if they can make up 2.5 games.

Is the ACC Worth It?

One week after announcing they would begin a “define the relationship” discussion with the ACC, Notre Dame cannot be pleased looking over the college landscape on Monday morning.  The DTR discussion, quite possibly the worst twenty minutes of spoken word ever initiated on Earth, gives Notre Dame a teaser period as a full member in all but football while agreeing to schedule five ACC football opponents every season.  Sounded great and will undoubtedly boost the conference’s profile, but logically one would think the conference that would finally woo Notre Dame could stand alone without the Irish.  A brand as prestigious as Notre Dame doesn’t give up its independence for just anyone right?  Notre Dame represents the “white whale” for all the other boys to chase…she’s a tough nut to crack, and the mere prospect of dating her keeps all the boys coming back once every two years to try again.

The coup of Notre Dame’s move to the ACC, spurning the more traditional suitors in the Big Ten, will likely change college football irrevocably starting a few years from now.  That depends, however, on how events unfold between Notre Dame and NBC, the money behind a lucrative TV deal.  Should NBC renew the deal, South Bend could stay out of a conference a while longer.  And, after watching the ACC play football this weekend and in recent years, I wouldn’t blame them.

Futility follows the ACC in recent memory at the highest level.  The conference has not sent a representative to the National Championship game since 2000, the last hurrah by Bowden’s Florida State.  And yet, each year, pundits give the ACC loads of preseason hype and the conference maintains a traditional relationship with the fairly prestigious Orange Bowl.  Even then, results don’t seem to be in the ACC’s favor.  Since the addition of former Big East teams (Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, etc.) to the conference, the ACC has won the Orange Bowl once.  Last year, West Virginia poured salt in the wound by racking up 70 points over Clemson.

On Saturday, the ACC continued the themes by now so familiar to many of its alumni.  Virginia Tech, the darling of so many pollsters, inexplicably lost to Pittsburgh 35-17.  Granted, Tech lost on the road, but Pitt lost two weeks ago to Youngstown State of FCS…not exactly prime opposition.  But for Virginia Tech, they are incapable of living up to preseason hype.  In the last six years, Tech has escaped September undefeated only once (2011, and even then they lost to Clemson on October 1^st).  For some of those years, Tech played tough games (LSU, Alabama, Boise State) but also lost no-brainers (James Madison, East Carolina, the 2012 Pittsburgh Panthers).  This has been the best ACC team since joining the conference, and they can’t get out of September?

Miami, once the absolute gem of East Coast football, looks to be in a free-fall.  Their last double digit season was in 2003, a veritable lifetime behind us (seriously, Justin Bieber wasn’t even around in those dark ages) and their record since those days has nosedived.  The 5-7 record under coach Randy Shannon in 2007 was the school’s worst since 1979 (that is not a typo).  Al Golden, the current entrant in Miami’s carousel, recorded a 6-6 record in 2011 and watched his team lose to little-known (but talented) Kansas State last week, 52-13.  While all teams go through bad periods, college football programs are defined by their ability to play in big games.  Just this morning folks in Knoxville are calling for Derek Dooley’s head due to his 0-11 record against ranked teams.  If you can’t motivate your team to play ranked schools, especially with the institutional pride so imbued in Miami, you will be embarrassed and find yourself on the hot seat.  A 28-point win over Bethune Cookman on Saturday won’t help.

Florida State, by far the most successful ACC team ever, finally looks to be rebounding under coach Jimbo Fisher.  The dying gasps of the Bobby Bowden era look to be forgotten in Tallahassee, as Florida State currently stands ranked 5^th in the country and a dark horse national championship contender.  The road has not been easy, but the Miami Freefall described above has not happened with nearly as much intensity for the Seminoles.  Florida States did not miss a bowl game during the whole period of transition, and has found their coach for the future.  If there’s a team that could provide the ACC a much-needed boost, Florida State will likely be it.

Looking at the top three schools in the ACC, their prestige, while large, looks outdated compared to schools in the Big Ten or even the Big 12.  But, every conference will have some top-heaviness, so in order to judge conference we must examine the other guys who make up the rest of the ACC ranks.

A quick but thorough examination unearths some potential bright spots.  Clemson, for instance, reached double digits in wins last year for the first time since 1990.  This season, Dabo Swinney’s team beat Auburn in Week 1, continuing what has become a close rivalry over the last three years.  Clemson 11^th ranked 2012 team should benefit from an easier schedule to find success.  But, for all the excitement, Clemson has not produced when needed.  The 70-34 debacle at the Orange Bowl last year further deflated the prospects of the conference and Clemson has not beaten in-state SEC rival South Carolina under Swinney.  For the team to take the next step, a win over a higher echelon SEC team (South Carolina is ranked in the top ten this year) or big bowl victory will prove Clemson’s worth.  Up to now, Clemson has not done enough.

The same could be said for Georgia Tech, a team that found success early using the complicated triple option offense but cannot seem to sustain that streak.  Paul Johnson, the architect of the offense, led the Yellow Jackets to the Orange Bowl in 2009, a close 24-14 loss to Iowa.  Unfortunately, the team has not reached that level since.  The next season, Johnson’s team went 6-7, followed by an 8-5 record last year.  Each year, however, Georgia Tech breached the top 15 rankings under Johnson, only to tumble late in the season due to bad losses, many of those in conference.  Like Clemson, however, Georgia Tech suffers against in-state SEC opposition.  Since 2001, Georgia Tech has won once against Georgia, a close 45-42 contest in 2008.  In the postseason, Paul Johnson has yet to win a bowl game, losing to Utah and Air Force in the last two years.  For Georgia Tech to find success and play with the big boys, it will need to do more.

After that, the list drops off precipitously.  Boston College continues to re-live the days of Matt Ryan despite not reaching nine wins since then.  North Carolina, despite moments of hope, has not finished the season in the AP poll since 1997 and seems perpetually under the cloud of suspicion and NCAA violations.  Maryland, a conference champion in 2001, enjoyed two wins last season and a one point victory over William and Mary in Week 1 of this year (translation: going nowhere fast).  NC State has seen three bowls in six years and similarly can’t make the jump to relevance, losing big time to Tennessee at the start of this season.  Wake Forest has lost any edge it had off a 2006 conference championship by not finishing in the AP poll since then.  For academic powerhouses Virginia and Duke, the way forward looks promising but not rosy enough to compete with a resurgent Florida State or even a semi-conscious Virginia Tech.  Duke hasn’t made a bowl since 1993, and while my alma mater in Charlottesville looks to be promising, embarrassing contests like Saturday’s loss to Georgia Tech and consistent blowouts at the hands of Virginia Tech will forever impede the program’s progress.  Additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh next year will not change much about the conference except making it more competitive.

And that might be the eventual trump card argument: we can bash the ACC all we want but at the very least the conference brings a level playing field.  In that sense, the ACC might be the best fit for a brand like Notre Dame who will look for competitive opponents.  But, looking at recent history, while the ACC might be competitive now the conference looks to be in a standstill.  No one team rises above the pack and, whenever it appears that one team can compete on the national level, we are constantly disappointed.  Since the Big East infusion of 2004, only Virginia Tech has been ranked in the top ten nationally to close a season, which they have done three times.  Considering their consistent disappointments and big game letdowns as the "best ACC football team", I have to wonder: is the ACC worth the attention?  Only time will tell.

Bit #1: Redskins Recap

Major thesis statement: Josh Morgan should run suicides until he pukes this week.  Every day, every minute, every hour.

Overall, I am tired of losing to the Rams every year.  But, the effort by the Skins on Sunday was not without promise.  Robert Griffin III still provides enough dynamism on offense to scare opponents and excite fans.  For the first time in a while, I wanted the Skins to have the ball on offense and didn’t mind when the defense gave up a score (something that unit did a lot of on Sunday).  Griffin missed only nine passes, but overall his protection abandoned him.  While the Rams recorded only one sack, Chris Long set up a lemonade stand in the backfield, forcing Griffin out of the pocket.  Once there, the Rams provided a pretty good blueprint for the league: you might not be able to stop RGIII, but you can knock him around.  The offensive line will need to provide better protection going forward after overachieving in Week 1, but RGIII also needs to avoid taking so many hits once he tucks the ball and runs or moves into the backfield.  Above all else, the offense must convert more than 4 of 13 third downs.  With the potential of that unit, those are drive-killers.

On defense, the effort was pitiful.  The Rams gained 452 yards of total offense, 243 of which could be attributed to a slot receiver and a backup running back.  Daryl Richardson averaged 5.5 yards a carry while Danny Amendola caught 15 balls on 16 targets.  While the front seven could be better at stopping the run, the secondary truly let down the rest of the team.  Once Amendola had 10 receptions in the first half, there were no adjustments made in the second half to limit his potential.  For a guy to catch all but one of his targets speaks volumes about the horrid day by the secondary.  Throw in the 7-for-12 third down conversion rate for the Rams, and they outplayed the Skins.

But, the Skins had a chance to win the game.  That chance was all but eliminated by Josh Morgan, who gave in to an antagonizing defensive back and justly received a game-killing 15 yard penalty.  While everyone has rises in tempers, as a professional football player he must know where he is on the field and the stakes for his team.  On a play like that, catch the ball, get tackled, pop up, and run back to the line of scrimmage.  It’s that simple, but he assured a Rams victory by forcing an aged Billy Cundiff to kick an NFL-record field goal try.  As many know, Morgan is my pick for “traditional Redskins free agent bust” of 2012, but his actions on Sunday deserve ridicule.

Bit #2: Week 2 NFL Notes

As much as I don’t want to overreact after Week 2, Kansas City should be pushing the panic button.  The Chiefs gave up five sacks to the Bills and turned the ball over three times.  The two TD passes by Matt Cassel both happened with a Buffalo victory guaranteed.  Opponents have outscored the Chiefs 75-41 this season, and had only nine more yards of offense than C.J. Spiller in the first half.  The Chiefs play the Saints, Chargers, and Ravens in the next three weeks, so they might be 0-5 before too long.

For the Patriots, their game against Arizona proved any NFL team can win in a given week.  For all their talent, the Pats could not contain the Arizona pass rush, which sacked Brady four times.  The talent of New England can’t be denied, as with all that adversity New England still had a chance to win the game.  While folks will blame Gostkowski for not coming through, and should, the problems were more endemic to the entire team.  Kevin Kolb, for example, should not be running a QB sneak from the five yard line and scoring a touchdown.  While many will discuss the Aaron Hernandez injury as deciding the game, the Pats still had the chance to win.  In addition, we’ve all seen the Belichick-Brady combination adjust to another offensive style.  For my money, the Pats lost the game with boneheaded play.

The saga of the Giants-Bucs presents an interesting question: what could be considered “bush league” in football?  The Bucs knocked Eli Manning to the ground at the end of Sunday’s game as he attempted to take a knee and run the clock out.  The Bucs, down by seven, vaulted across the line and went after him.  Tom Coughlin, after the game, called the play cheap and dirty, among other phrases he likely used for Bucs coach Greg Schiano.  With all due respect to Coughlin (he does have two rings compared to my none), a team down by seven has every right to try and force a fumble.  Down by fourteen in this spot, the move would be bush league.  But, continued aggressiveness should not be lampooned, especially when the Bucs were within one touchdown to tie.  That’s football…if you’re worried about that, run the ball up the middle to close out the game.

Finally, I think the 49ers are the best team in the NFC.  After watching the Eagles almost piddle away another victory and seeing the Packers-Bears fracas on Thursday, the 49ers look better than ever.  Their defense remains the stoutest in the league and, as pointed out in the broadcast last night, they are able to keep less men in the box while devoting more resources to pass coverage.  That’s how good the defensive front has been in the last two games.  We may be seeing a lot more of San Fran this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised seeing them in New Orleans come February.

Bit #3: The true problem of replacement officials

There are bad calls in every sport, every match, every contest.  Replacement refs will make bad calls, as will full-time officials.  It happens.  But, referees can make two elements of their job a priority: maintain discipline and keeping games moving without unnecessary delays.

The refs failed at both this week.  The Baltimore-Philly and St. Louis-Washington games both featured pushing and shoving after the play with only offsetting penalties (in effect, no harm no foul) for combatants.  While I understand referees want to be fair, they should be willing to give the instigator a personal foul, just to send a message that players can’t start that kind of nonsense.  No attempt was made in either game to control the players or to punish their immaturity.  To decrease that kind of stuff, a firm message must be sent by refs.  Either eject someone or give them personal foul penalties, but above all do not give offsetting penalties three incidents in a row.

The games yesterday averaged 3 hours, 13 minutes of time…a little over ten minutes in normal years.  The cause of this has been long booth reviews and the ridiculous habit of conferencing for each flag thrown.  Referees must be confident in the call they make, otherwise their credibility comes into serious question.  While booth reviews can confuse even the best officials, a huddle of zebras after an obvious false start wastes everyone’s time.

Same Old Jay

As one of the idiots who started Jay Cutler in fantasy last night, I have to wonder exactly how valuable Bears QB Jay Cutler will be this season and beyond.  At first glance, he inspires confidence.  Before the game Thursday night in Green Bay, Cutler won six straight starts.  His injury last season preceded a free-fall for the Bears from likely Super Bowl contender to January couch potatoes.  Historically, he has not played worse than any other quarterback you can imagine.  His years in Denver saw playoff berths and he led the Bears to the NFC Championship Game two seasons ago.  Holistically, Cutler has talent and shows he can use it.

And yet, how many times do NFL fans care about the holistic picture?  The chief argument in the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning debate centers around their performances when it matters.  If you know a Pats fan, you’ve heard all the attempts to diminish Manning’s skill or talent.  The argument rings immensely hollow unless we analyze playoff performances.  The same debate raged in the 80s between Dan Marino and Joe Montana (ironically, Montana beat Marino the one time the Dolphins made the Super Bowl under his watch).  As usual, legacies revolve around championships and postseasons.  In short, when opportunity comes knocking, greatness opens the door and seizes the moment.

And that’s why Jay Cutler will never be great should he continue recent trends.  In the NFC North over the last ten years, everything goes through Lambeau Field.  The Packers have won the division five of those years.  Even when they don’t win the division, Green Bay threatens the competition.  Hence, the Super Bowl win two seasons ago.  You want to win in the North?  Beating Green Bay is imperative.

And the truth is Jay Cutler can’t do it.  He can’t.  Against the Packers, Cutler does his best Greg Norman impression.  In 7 games, he’s 1-6 with 8 touchdowns and 15 interceptions against Green Bay.  I can think of a few Redskins quarterbacks with better stats against a divisional rival, and those teams were never good.  Last night’s game served as a reminder that the Bears, for all their talent and hype, will not do well with Jay Cutler continuing to wilt when they need him most.

Many in Chicagoland bring up the NFC Championship of a few years ago, in which Cutler left the game early due to an injury that was never truly fleshed out afterwards.  The Pack went on to win and advance to the Super Bowl in a 21-14 nailbiter, a shocking score considering the Bears trotted Caleb Hanie into the starting QB role.  Cutler sat on the sidelines in a jacket, seemingly too hurt to play but not showing any kind of frustration or hurt.  Such activity did not endear him to Chicago.  Did I mention that game came three weeks after the Bears missed an opportunity to eliminate the Packers from playoff contention?  Stop me if this sounds familiar, but Green Bay sacked Cutler six times, forced two interceptions on 168 passing yards, and generally made his life miserable.

The same script played out last night.  Cutler entered the game with confidence, talking a big game about his new receiving weapons.  He admonished the Packers during the week to have “good luck” in trying to stop the Bears supposedly vaunted offense with press coverage.  Guess what?  The Packers secondary barely played press coverage, resorting to a soft Cover 2 that allowed more chances to intercept throws, but could have been exploited.  On most replays, Cutler had men open, but was unable to find them.

Don’t get me wrong…there were human turnstiles playing on the line for the Bears last night.  On most one-on-one matchups in the trenches, the Bears lost.  Left tackle J’Marcus Webb had no luck with Clay Matthews, and even the overrated A.J. Hawk and B.J. Raji ate dinner in the backfield.  The consistent complaint against the Bears has always been their offensive line, and the prosecution’s Exhibit A was entered into evidence last night.  The 32^nd-ranked defense of a season ago dominated this game after losing to the 49ers at home last week, hardly an offensive juggernaut.  If Cutler will ever have intrinsic value, the line must protect him better.  Seven sacks will not allow for any consistency.

Offensive coordinator Mike Tice also deserves blame here.  Late into the game, seemingly aware his offensive dam looked half-built, Tice continued calling for deep dropbacks for Cutler.  My post on Wednesday pointed out the value of quick throws in the Redskins game as a way of calming a quarterback and establishing offensive rhythm.  Tice refused to do so, preferring to let the horror ensue.  Also, why didn’t they run the ball?  San Fran dominated the pace in Green Bay last week using the rushing attack.

That is not to say Cutler was not without his opportunities, however.  The passes he did throw largely came off his back foot.  Almost every replay also showed open receivers in the flat or beneath the coverage as safety valves.  If he gave those guys so much as a glance, no one saw.  His check-down throws simply did not exist in last night’s game, an unfortunate fact since Matt Forte can be counted on to make a few guys miss as a receiver.  Cutler also made rash decisions, which led to picks.  In the third quarter, Cutler forced a ball to the middle of the field, off his back foot, that Charles Woodson intercepted.  In that situation, he needs to unload the ball into Section 143.  There’s no need to force the issue that early.  In the fourth quarter, his pass for Brandon Marshall went into double coverage and was (amazingly, based on Cutler’s postgame comments) intercepted.  Bumping his offensive lineman changed very little last night…Cutler missed open guys and could have gotten rid of the ball quicker on numerous occasions.

If Cutler wants to make the next step, he needs to beat the Packers more than once during his time in Chicago.  This season, putting the Packers down a 0-2 hole would certainly have implications further down the road, especially since the Packers would have started 0-2 in Lambeau for 2012.  But Cutler seems either incapable or unwilling to make the proper adjustments when playing the Packers.  Last night’s performance, just one in a litany of such debacles, does not bode well for the Bears.

Bit #1: Calhoun’s Legacy

Jim Calhoun, the longtime coach at UConn, retired this week at the age of 70.  Recent health troubles and NCAA sanctions all likely contributed to his decision, but regardless Calhoun could be credited with the best architecture of a college contender ever seen.  Prior to his arrival in Storrs, UConn had never advanced past the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament and hadn’t made the Dance for seven years.  Calhoun’s second team won the NIT, and only two years later the Huskies lost on a Christian Laettner buzzer-beater in the Elite Eight.  In four years, Calhoun transformed UConn into a title contender, and a good one.

In 26 years, Calhoun’s team made the Tourney 18 times, winning three championships and creating a national powerhouse.  In his last decade of work, however, rumors labeled Calhoun as a recruiting guru who knew how to cut corners in order to guarantee the best talent.  Last season, the NCAA suspended him for the first three Big East games due to recruiting violations and an inability to “create an atmosphere of compliance.”  That never sounds good or works very well with legacies, but truthfully who will remember small controversies when stacked against his achievements.  While sports media now will bring up his “complicated” legacy, Calhoun won three national championships and carries far less baggage than Bob Knight, whose closet skeletons carry lots of glare even today.

Unfortunately, he picked a poor time for UConn.  With the exodus of good basketball programs to the ACC, UConn likely will feel compelled to land in a power conference away from the Big East.  Without Calhoun, that process may be more difficult.  Should UConn stay in the conference, the Big East will have lost Jim Boeheim and Calhoun from its ranks in recent years.  The pedigree for the conference will likely run out, but Calhoun’s should be appreciated for a long time as one of the best ever.

Bit #2: Thievery in Baltimore

The Baltimore Orioles have a run differential of -20 this season.  And they are first in their division.  Such a supposedly anemic offense should not be ahead of the Yankees, at +95, or the Rays, at +76.  But, they are, mainly because they just keep winning.  A 14-inning marathon last night saw the Orioles win their 13^th straight extra-innings contest, a flabbergasting stat considering how tight the divisional race has been.

It would be very easy to discredit the Orioles as “not that good” when they win so many close games and can’t seem to win every week unless the game is close.  But, for all the logic of that position, September baseball includes lots of nuances, the biggest of which being: you must win games, no style points given.  And that’s been the Baltimore model, close wins that rely on clutch play, both at the plate and the mound.  For me, baseball would benefit a lot for “Hope and Change.”  Namely, the hope that the AL East might change this season.  If the Red Sox and Yankees both miss the postseason, it will be the first such incident since 1993, almost 20 years ago.  I’m on the Baltimore bandwagon, and you should be too.

Bit #3: Lockout will solve nothing

On Saturday at midnight, the NHL will officially lock out the players.  A move that brings great personal sadness to me also comes with trepidation and anger, mainly directed at commissioner Gary Bettman.  For fans of hockey, the stoppage in 2004 was dreadful, but since then hockey has becomes a little more burdensome on fans.  The on-ice product looks better than before, but checkbooks are opening more for hockey. 

Since the lockout in 2004, ticket prices have increased by an average of 39%.  For you economic buffs, that’s substantially above inflation, so let’s not diminish the stat too much.  Bettman, in recent statements, wants to look out for the small market franchises.  In his mind, taking money from the players will go directly to the smaller markets, helping them to make ends meet.  The players also bought into this idea with their emergency fund concept, a good plan that would actually send money directly to the Nashvilles and Phoenixes of the league.

But, if the owners are serious about the smaller teams, they need to increase their own revenue sharing across all franchises.  The NFL can do this through massive TV revenues, but for hockey local revenues provide the lifeblood for smaller teams.  Short of receiving more money for bigger markets, owners will have to make tough decisions on who pays for the team.  Fans will be subject to this, as big city owners will not be willing to provide direct help needed in tough hockey markets.  Should the lockout end with more money being taken from the players, but no increased sharing between franchises, ticket prices and arena costs will skyrocket for us.

Has Football Begun Its Decline?

Over the past weekend, Devon Walker, a player for Tulane University, suffered a cervical spine fracture after a collision in a game against Tulsa.  In the ensuing rush, medical staff gave him CPR on the field as a preventive measure, and many feared he had died on the field.  In a terror-inspiring moment, some media outlets reported him dead or, at the very least, paralyzed.  Thankfully, Walker remains in stable condition with some feeling in his extremities and very much alive.

That kind of moment chills me to the bone.  Not only does it shake us to see a young man almost die on the athletic field, but the prospects for football also suffer.  Considering the huge viewership numbers for the NFL season, the above statement sounds very strong.    But, let’s consider a few things and realize that football, as we know it, looks to be on a precipice, about to plunge into obscurity. 

1.      Lawsuits at the highest level.  Current lawsuits by former NFL players currently stand in court, alleging the NFL knowingly withheld information linking concussions to permanent brain damage.  From a legal perspective, the case will likely reach a settlement and much will proceed as before.  But, the bigger public relations backlash can be felt now.  Last week, ESPN ran a weeklong Sportscenter series on the perils of playing football, complete with stories of paralyzed high school, college, and NFL players.  Interviews with former stars like Jamal Lewis, a 2000-yard rusher who often forgets questions posed to him during interviews, have become commonplace.  As a football fan, it’s tough to miss those TV segments.

2.      Concussion-related deaths in sports.  Equally unavoidable: the many concussion-related deaths in recent years at the professional level.  A previous blog post of mine theorized the recent death of linebacker Junior Seau stemmed directly from his concussions as a player.  I wrote that small piece with very little evidentiary support, but the spate of deaths in the NFL and NHL do not bode well.  Many NHL enforcers, like Bob Probert, who suffered many concussions, have passed away suddenly in recent years.  Seau’s death, a likely candidate for the same trend, remains the highest profile death.  Still, combining news of these deaths with current lawsuits in the NFL, and all of a sudden concussions sprang onto the NFL’s radar as an area of key concern.

3.      Penalties directed towards concussions.  With the lawsuits (and deaths) in mind, the NFL implemented penalties that would sanction in-game collisions deemed too dangerous to the head.  Helmet-to-helmet hits on defenseless receivers, a staple of past legends like Ronnie Lott and Dick Butkus, are now illegal.  Any contact to the head of the quarterback, even if that contact does not necessarily drive the QB to the ground, will be flagged as “roughing the passer” in today’s NFL.  What’s more, the league also suspends those who initiate such vicious hits, often for multiple games.

4.      Bounties.  After the Saints scandal this offseason, revelations came out from many former NFL players that every locker room since the dawn of time used pay-for-play systems.  Whether those extended to “bounties” looks doubtful, especially given the recent lifting of player suspensions in New Orleans, but does the public really care?  As we all know, the public will believe anything.

You likely know about those trends.  If you didn’t, now you do.  What those trends tell me (and should tell you), is the dangers of football are slowly being uncovered.  With the benefits of modern science come harsh realities.  Namely, what many fans enjoy about football; the hits, acrobatics, and collisions, suddenly has an imputed danger.  While any play can result in a sudden injury on the field, most science points to a more general conclusion: every play will inexorably lead to widespread physical decline.

That realization, suspected by many but now substantiated scientifically, has huge implications for the game.  Do parents want to expose their kids to a life of premature stiffness, perpetual sores, and possible amnesia?  Former NFL stars, like Kurt Warner and Terry Bradshaw, have expressed publicly their children will likely not be playing football.  Supposing overall football players at the youth levels will decrease makes sense given the added context now facing parents of football talents.  (Of course, such arguments do not account for the future earnings potential of youth football stars, which could be enough to persuade parents to allow their children onto the field.)

Perhaps more distressing, however, than the shrinking pool of future stars could be the rising insurance costs of high school football.  In the age of expanding health care, the mind does not struggle to imagine health insurance companies involving themselves with football and other contact sports.  Consider if high schools will be liable for those health insurance costs directed from football?  For lower income areas, that cost might be enough to severely cut, or even eliminate, high school football teams.  Might not make a huge dent in the pool of future players, considering the common practice of expensive high schools recruiting impoverished athletes, but an increased financial burden will definitely affect the choice of parents.

Related to the start-up costs, bigger and better equipment, like the NFL continues to research, will be costly.  Should equipment standards percolate from the NFL to youth football, bigger pads and more protective helmets will incur a higher cost for parents and organizers.  An interesting idea, however, would be to decrease the size of pads and efficiency of helmets.

Admittedly, that sounds far-fetched, but if equipment were less “safe,” wouldn’t players take less risks to preserve themselves?  The movement to reform hits in youth football towards leading with the shoulder, as opposed to the heads, reached a crescendo this past year.  Those calls would be strengthened by a simultaneous drive to increase risks of big hits through decreased padding.  Of course, gruesome injuries will still happen, but the current trajectory of football suggests an NFLer will have to die on the field before players begin to take notice and reform their hits.  Sounds draconian, but such a move might actually work.

You can forget that if you like, since the Houston Astros have a better chance of winning their division in the next five years than the NFL does of decreasing pads.  So, what are the options for the sport?  Football looks to be losing support of parents, for health as well as financial reasons.  Former players (over 2,000 of them) have revolted against the sport, choosing to besiege the league in court.  The inherent danger of football can only increase with more scientific discoveries, so either the sport will need to adjust or go the way of boxing.  Keep playing fantasy football folks…widespread fan participation could be the only saving grace for football.

Bit #1: Redskins Week 1 Recap

In the future, a Bit will be devoted each week to the Redskins performance.  As far as which Bit it will be depends on how well the team plays. 

Many want to praise RGIII this week, and I can’t blame them.  But the underlying cause of his success rests on the offensive line, a unit I have lampooned time and time again this offseason.  The line allowed only one sack the entire game and blocked effectively for running backs, spearheading 3.5 yards/carry for the day.  Rushers gained 7 of the 20 Washington first downs, a surprising number considering the main carries went to Alfred Morris, a rookie with supposedly limited talent.  All I’m saying is, Barry Sanders wasn’t exactly running behind the line on Sunday in New Orleans.  I give the line credit for protection and blocking.

For Griffin, I admit he was impressive, but not otherworldly.  He completed 19 of 26 passes on the day and, most importantly, extended a few plays for an offense too familiar with statuesque pocket passers.  Many replays showed him looking downfield in the face of pressure rather than relying on the run.  That said, let’s be careful to anoint him yet.  The first half saw only three RGIII throws go beyond the line of scrimmage.  One play in particular inflated his numbers; the 88-yard strike to Garcon for a touchdown.  After halftime, however, Griffin showed remarkable accuracy on deeper passes to Santana Moss and Logan Paulsen, the latter being the game-sealing play.  Overall, I saw a rookie quarterback begin his career with confidence and a little help from a coaching staff eager to ease him into the fire.  Still, an efficient Washington offense will do wonders.

The defense had some rough plays (the TD pass to Lance Moore particularly), but held the Saints to 32 yards rushing.  While the Saints used multiple backs, a two-headed running attack can be difficult to defend due to the volatile pace and style of each runner.  The Skins front seven never allowed the running game (and therefore the play action pass) to become a factor in the game.

For next week, the Skins must do better than 4 for 15 on third down.  The win in New Orleans looked good, but an inability to sustain drives brings potent offenses back onto the field.  The Saints might be without a head coach, but other teams with high-flying attacks will love seeing such pathetic third-down conversion numbers.  Still, a fantastic and wholly unexpected win.

Bit #2: Other NFL Notes

The Eagles presented a surprising face to the league in Week 1.  Michael Vick threw four interceptions and seemed unable to figure out the Browns defense.  But, the only way to win after 4 INTs is to force the other guy to throw 4 INTs.  The Eagles defense played ridiculously well, holding the Browns to 210 total offensive yards.  Any life from Brandon Weeden would have won this game, but it looks like Philly came to play on defense this season.

In Green Bay, the 49ers started to buck the recent trend of dominating passing attacks winning games.  Frank Gore carried sixteen times for 112 yards, an impressive showcase against the allegedly talented Green Bay front seven.  Alex Smith also surprised many by targeting wide receivers 17 times, compared to the 5 targets for tight end Vernon Davis.  Last season, the Niners relied on Davis to provide the majority of their passing offense, but it appears coach Jim Harbaugh has a plan to change that.

NFL officials, currently locked out, cannot have been pleased watching Week 1.  The replacement officials threw more flags and increased game time, but no missed calls decided outcomes of games.  A missed block in the back penalty on a Green Bay kick return kept that game close, but the Niners rendered the mistake irrelevant with their play.  In the Seattle-Arizona game, however, the official awarded Seattle an extra timeout due to a misreading of a rule.  While Seattle easily could have leveraged the 4^th quarter stoppage to score, they didn’t and the game’s “integrity” remained secure.  After the slate of games, the NFL announced they had expanded the replacement schedule to Week 5, signaling a degree of contentment among league personnel with the replacement effort.  The nature of sports, however, asks “what have you done for me lately” so once a blown call decides a primetime game, the officials will regain the upper hand.

Bit #3: Notre Dame achieves football stability

On Wednesday, Notre Dame announced all of its sports except football and ice hockey would join the ACC.  While the school will likely be destroyed in basketball, the implications for football are immense.  Notre Dame agreed to play five ACC schools annually upon joining, meaning Notre Dame comes as close to a conference affiliation as you could ask.  That’s a big deal for a school that prides itself on independence and has successfully used that pride to receive outrageous benefits from the college football system.  Taking in recent events, Notre Dame’s football pedigree will likely suffer a little bit.  The ACC certainly boasts a strong lineup, but Notre Dame playing Boston College or Maryland each year will not help its standing in the new playoff system.  For that reason, expect Notre Dame to follow its 2012 model: scheduling tough opposition with a few mainstays.  The radical shift will affect the school’s identity, but joining the ACC in other sports will bring revenue to the school while allowing them the football flexibility valued so highly in South Bend.  This does not change the perennial overrated nature of Notre Dame football, but it will likely temper expectations a little bit as fans know each season may feature Virginia, North Carolina, or Wake Forest, among a host of others.