Patience on Concussions Wears Thin

Anyone not dating Manti Te’o knows the NFL, and football at large, has used recent years to try and eradicate concussions.  The increased awareness about what concussions can do to the brains of athletes helps everyone understand what changes need to be made in professional sports.  In order to make players safer, Roger Goodell and the NFL have embarked on expansive measures, fining helmet-to-helmet contact and sponsoring research projects at prestigious hospitals like NIH.

Yesterday, NIH doctors investigated the brain of former linebacker Junior Seau, who shot himself last year after a decorated career for the Chargers, Dolphins, and Patriots.  At the time, Dibbles and Bits immediately blamed repeated blows to the head for his sudden erratic behavior.  As the NIH investigators found, Seau suffered from chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a condition football fans will undoubtedly hear more about in the coming years that results from repeated blows to the head.

On the same day, Seau’s family filed a wrongful death lawsuit against the NFL, joining more than 3800 players who have sued the NFL over head injuries.  In every case, the plaintiffs argue the NFL knew about the connection between concussions and CTE and hid that danger from players.  In addition, helmet manufacturers also knew, according to the suing players, and did not put in adequate protections in their helmets.  Seau’s family specifically named Riddell for being negligent in their helmet design.

The effects of CTE can be truly damaging.  Former players suffer from depression, amnesia, insomnia, emotional detachment, and irrationality.  Interviews with plaintiffs like Jamal Lewis and Jim McMahon show them forgetting questions and being unable to remember details when put on the spot by a journalist.  Overall, these players do suffer.  Of that there can be no doubt.

And yet, for whatever reason, the filing of Seau’s suit provided the final straw for me.  After reading the stories, watching the interviews, and hearing the soundclips of the concussion question, I have always felt sorry for these former players, abandoned by the NFL to deal with their own mental and physical issues alone.  Watching Jamal Lewis struggle to remember a question always pulled at my heartstrings, breaking forth when he finally had to ask the reporter to repeat the question slowly or in multiple parts.

But another emotion has always permeated my thoughts on this…confusion.  Confusion that these players, having made millions of dollars playing a violent sport, are now suing their former employer.  Confusion that as kids these players must have known the dangers of football, accepted them, and played at the highest level, being battered along the way.  And, finally, confusion that so many of them, who boast that they can take or give big hits, would turn right around and change their image from the macho style of football to a long-suppressed hatred of the game they played for a long time.

Being a Washington fan, I watched in horror as Robert Griffin reinjured his knee three weeks ago.  He refused to come out of the game, promising Mike Shanahan he was good to go, struggling on the field until his knee caved beneath him.  But we also saw Rob Gronkowski two years ago dodge the question of whether he blacked out on the field.  When pushed why he wouldn’t say, Gronk responded that he would hide concussion symptoms just to play.  Or how about Kris Dielman, the Chargers offensive lineman, who stumbled his way between plays in a game two seasons ago after clearly suffering a head injury.  None of these three examples, when faced with possible injuries that could have lifelong effects, chose not to play the game.  Their desire to play trumped any concern for their health at the time…and they were totally cool with that.

Those might be present day examples, but some of the plaintiffs are no different.  Junior Seau told NFL Films in 1993 that after a big hit “If I feel a little dizziness, I know the other guy feels double that.”  I don’t read any remorse in that, no care for either Seau’s health or the other guy.  And Jim McMahon, the former Bears quarterback and most recognizable plaintiff, has difficulty convincing anyone he didn’t accept the dangers of a violent sport.  Not only did McMahon project a brash image when he played the game, but he has his own quotes.  My favorite might be “I don’t like the rules about you can’t hit the quarterback.”  He loved to take hits as a player and always felt trash talking was in order afterwards.  That’s quite the shift from arrogant macho man to one more concerned about long-term safety in the game.

Unfortunately, it’s not just the competitive nature of players that keeps them playing despite injuries.  The fan market also tells them to do so.  Remember the Twitter beating Jay Cutler took for sitting out of the NFC Championship with an undisclosed injury?  His competitive spirit and general toughness received a thorough tongue-lashing from fans disappointed and unimpressed, even if Cutler’s long-term health benefited from the decision.  Fans don’t care about the future lives of these players…they want to win.  So many fans and players discuss not wanting to see guys get hurt, but for fans that takes a backseat to winning.  Otherwise, why would Cutler receive that kind of abuse?  The franchise quarterback had to sit out in consideration for his safety, and fans revolted.  For players, they care about the welfare of other competitors on the field, with many of them praying over injured players during games.  And yet, everyone keeps playing, knowing they might be next.

Given that attitude, I find it hard to justify paying large sums of money to these plaintiffs.  That does not mean I don’t pity them…I can’t imagine what early-onset dementia might feel like and the pain it might cause one’s family.  But if we separate the nature of the injury for one moment, the principle of paying damages seems ridiculous.  Let’s say, for example, a player must be in a wheelchair after age 50 due to repeated leg injuries.  Should he be able to sue the NFL saying he didn’t know about that danger when he first suited up?  Your answer will decide how you feel about concussions.  Of course, the knowledge has evolved on CTE and head injuries, but a head injury and a wheelchair are direct consequences of the football profession, which everyone accepted when they signed multi-million dollar contracts to play this sport.  No one put a proverbial (or literal) gun to their head with “you will sleep with fishes” threats when Seau and McMahon began their careers.  McMahon might wish he had played baseball, but he didn’t.

In a week where the sports world quickly judged Manti Te’o and Lance Armstrong for their respective choices, the lack of judgment for these concussion plaintiffs strikes me as a double standard.  Psychologically, of course, society hates to see anyone suffer.  That Lance and Manti rose above their competition while making poor choices means we want them to accept the consequences.  And yet, when folks like Seau and McMahon make a poor choice and suffer because of it, they are able to demand money from their former employer without anyone seeming to notice.

In a post a few weeks ago, I refused to blame the environment in the NFL, reiterating that the essential human nature of athletes means they make poor choices just like the rest of us.  It’s time we as a whole started realizing this fact and treating them accordingly.  I feel sorry for these players, as their lives must be fraught with difficulty right now.  But not everyone with a tough life deserves money from the biggest business in the world.  That might be heartless, and it might be tough, but the world remains that way, whether we like it or not.

Bit #1: Rule Change Needed for Tennis?

An interesting thing happened at the Aussie Open yesterday.  World number one Victoria Azarenka took a 10 minute medical timeout late in the second set of her match against Sloane Stephens.  Stephens was about to serve and had been coming on strong before the timeout.  Once Azarenka returned to play, she won the next two games to take the semifinal match and advance to the final.

When asked after the match about the timeout, however, Azarenka said, “Well I almost did the choke of the year right now. At 5-3 having so many chances, couldn’t close it out. I’m glad I could just turn it around. I just felt a little bit overwhelmed realizing that I’m one step from the final and nerves got into me for sure.”

I’m sorry, nerves?  If Azarenka had started projectile vomiting because of her nerves, that’s one thing (I’d like to see it just once in tennis), but to worry about choking the match away?  If that’s a medical timeout in the real world, no one would have any sick days left over.  Some might say it’s gamesmanship, but medical timeouts, by definition, are meant to deal with medical problems.  In tennis, that usually is respiratory or orthopedic problems.  Apparently for Azarenka, nothing bothered her except losing the match.

Might be time for a rule change or at least a strongly worded note from the WTA.

Bit #2: Capitals Look Terrible

Watching the first two Caps games this year, I’m worried.  For one, the team can’t score.  Worse, the defense gives up too many turnovers.  Third, Braden Holtby can’t control his rebounds, giving up tons of second chances.  And, worst, the Caps have allowed five power play goals in ten penalty kills.  Eek.

If you watched the pitiful display against Winnipeg, the defense worries me the most.  John Carlson has likely never played such a poor game, so I’d support a shearing of defensive hairs.  Both Mike Green and Carlson sport large heads of hair this year…and they can’t find the puck in that mess.  It could be a really long season in what was supposed to be a race to the finish.

Bit #3: Best Bet I Made Before the Season

In the Lakers locker room, things aren’t going well.  New reports out of LA point to a potential feud between Kobe and Dwight Howard, eerily reminiscent of Kobe’s prior problems with Shaq in the early 2000s.  The Lakers look to contend for the 8^th and final playoff spot, a far cry from their preseason prognostications.

And props to my housemate Jacob, who bet me $20 before the season that the Lakers would finish ahead of the Thunder in the regular season standings, saying “They just can’t compete with LA.”  The records stand as such:

OKC: 33-10

LAL: 17-25

Cha-ching.

Flacco An Elite Quarterback

Watching the Ravens trounce the Patriots on Sunday night raised plenty of questions surrounding their respective quarterbacks.  On one side, Tom Brady has a 7-7 record in his last 14 postseason games and can’t seem to play well in any round other than the divisional round of the postseason.  Over those 14 games, Brady had a fairly pedestrian average rating of 86.04 with 26 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.  In games past the divisional round over that same span, Brady’s numbers plummet further (7 TDs, 9 INTs, 73.22 rating).  Now, Brady has three rings and will forever have that affirmation, but fans out there should not be fooled by his large media presence.  Truthfully, he has not been good in the past few years when it mattered, and that fourth ring escaped him again on Sunday.

But on the other side is Joe Flacco.  Intrigue swirls around the Delaware graduate who has won a playoff game each of his first five years in this league.  No one has done that in history.  And yet, many refuse to brand him an elite quarterback right now.

The arguments against him are certainly valid.  For one, he has rarely had to win a game by himself.  The Ravens defense, a unit that will be remembered for a long time, always provided Flacco with some kind of insurance, especially when the offense looked to be at its most anemic.  His regular season performance often draws sighs and has drawn comparisons to Kyle Boller, an unenviable compariosn for any athlete in any sport.  Flacco has never exceeded a 93.6 passer rating in any given season, and that rating was good for only 7^th in league during 2010.  By the same token, he has thrown 25 touchdowns in a season only once, rarely exceeding the league average in five seasons.  Those aren’t numbers to make you quake.

But the term “elite” does not equate to Hall of Fame numbers.  There will be all-time greats playing in each era of football who are by definition elite.  Those guys (Manning, Brady, Rodgers) will always receive some credit for their team’s victories simply by the force of their ability.  Those guys can win every week and when it matters most…and what’s better, is that they’ve proved it.

But, there are other quarterbacks who might not be Hall of Famers, but are elite because they consistently play well when the pressure remains at its highest.  Eli Manning and Joe Flacco provide the best examples of postseason performers.  They win during the regular season, but without much consistency.  Eli boasts a paltry 82.7 career rating in the regular season (Flacco at 86.3), leading the league in interceptions thrown during two of those seasons and only going north of 30 touchdowns once.   One cannot deny these two either sleep through the first few months or contribute very little to their team’s overall success.

And yet in the playoffs both Flacco and Manning have found ways to win, beating QBs much more talented and statistically relevant than themselves.  Eli has beaten Tom Brady twice in the Super Bowl, and Joe Flacco has beaten Brady twice in the playoffs (admittedly, one was a 4-for-10 effort when Ray Rice ran roughshod but still a W).  For fans who value championships as the mark of greatness, Joe Flacco has none, and yet can win at the highest level.

To me, that’s the definition of elite; a quarterback who can prove his mettle during the toughest circumstances.  I’d think six playoff road victories would classify as very difficult surroundings.  Too often we expect perfection, looking to the impressive 4-0 record of Joe Montana in Super Bowls and wishing present-day passers would find some way to emulate and imitate Joe.  Who’s to blame them right?  They are looking at the best quarterback of all-time and asking everyone else to live up to that standard.  But, as seen by the monumentally disappointing collapses of Manning and Brady in this postseason, not everyone can do it.  We should look for consistency to determine elite quarterbacking.  And Flacco has it.

None should walk away from this thinking I have always seen Flacco as an elite passer in the NFL.  On the contrary, only Skip Bayless could be pleased with his first three seasons.  Despite one AFC Championship berth, Flacco piddled away most of his playoff chances, turning in some truly awful performances (3 INTs in that championship game still makes me retch).  But look at the past two postseasons:

vs. Houston: 14-17, 176 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 97.1 rating

at New England: 22-36, 306 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 95.4 rating

vs. Indianapolis: 12-23, 282 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 125.6 rating

at Denver: 18-34, 331 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 116.2 rating

at New England: 21-36, 240 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 106.2 rating

In each of these games, I’m sure the nitpicky of you can find three or more “Flacco Throws” which are typically wounded ducks thrown 5-10 yard past the line of scrimmage that miss receivers by the same 5-10 yard window.  They exist, undoubtedly.  But look at the numbers above and tell me with a straight face you don’t think Joe Flacco can win when it counts.  It’s impossible.  Not only are the rating numbers well above his regular season average, but he has thrown one interception in five games.  And yes, he picks up huge yardage with deep balls, but that makes his accuracy much more impressive.  This postseason we’ve watched traditionally accurate quarterbacks throw deep, only to be picked off.  That doesn’t happen for Flacco in the playoffs.

As a final point, we should not look to elite quarterbacks as guys who will undoubtedly end up in Canton.  Jim Plunkett won two Super Bowl rings with Oakland in three years.  His numbers won’t get him to the Hall, but he won postseason games when needed (including an almost-perfect 145.0 rating in Super Bowl XV, before Marcus Allen provided insurance for Oakland a few years later).  That kind of consistency deserves credit from pundits and fans alike.  I guarantee you opposing defenses never wanted to play Plunkett in the playoffs, and after looking at Flacco’s stats the last two years…I’d be shocked if anyone doesn’t view him as an elite quarterback.  Maybe not an elite talent, but definitely an elite quarterback.

Bit #1: Super Bowl Keys/Predictions

I was able to pick one of the teams right in the big game, but otherwise my crystal ball is ready to see this postseason end.  Still, I don’t see why we can’t discuss a few keys to this game.

My initial view sees the Ravens running game as the key and, by association, the trenches becomes most important.  Baltimore’s offensive line, bolstered by the addition of Bryant McKinnie, has played very well in the playoffs, shutting down the fearsome pass rush of Denver two weeks ago.  With Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce providing a potentially explosive attack, the winner in the trenches will likely dictate how the game progresses.  If the Ravens can establish the run and keep Flacco upright, the vertical play-action game will come into effect.  And, while they won the game, we all saw what San Fran’s corners can do against physical, speedy wide receivers.  Julio Jones and Roddy White torched them early, so there might be more of the same.

On the other side, Baltimore might stand a better chance of stopping the run than Atlanta did thanks to the presence of Haloti Ngata.  For the Ravens, the linebacking corps will need to stay disciplined in order to contain Colin Kapernick, but Ngata’s big frame has no equivalent on Atlanta’s line.  That might easily change the dynamics of the Super Bowl, and given the strength of both defensive lines I could see the game transform into a passing attack across the board.

I give the edge to the Ravens, not only because it’s hard to trust a second-year starter in Kaepernick, but Baltimore has exceeded expectations through the entire postseason.

Bit #2: Hockey returns!

For those who will read this Bit, I salute you.  Hockey came back on Friday with a vengeance as puckheads learned again who plays where and why Mike Milbury could be the worst studio personality in sports.

A passing note about this weekend’s action was the prevalence of high-scoring games.  Nine games thus far have featured one team scoring five goals or more, further proof that the time away did not help defenses at all.  I’m sure they will adjust, but regardless it’s great to have hockey back on every night.

Bit #3: Ten years later, Tim Brown whines

In a truly bizarre story, Tim Brown accused former Raiders coach Bill Callahan of sabotaging Super Bowl XXXVII, which occurred almost ten years ago.  In his comments, Brown claimed Callahan scrapped the original run-heavy gameplan against the Bucs in favor of a passing attack.  Brown further commented that center Barrett Robbins, who would disappear during the day leading up to the game, begged Callahan not to make the change, insisting that without full practice the offensive line would not be ready.

Whether or not Callahan changed the gameplan remains to be determined, but for Brown to make these comments ten years later stinks.  He’s one of the best receivers in the past 20 years, currently a finalist for the Hall of Fame, and decides to throw his coach under the bus like that?  It’s classless, and Bill Callahan has every right to attack Brown’s credibility on this, as Brown insinuated the last minute change was designed to submarine the Raiders organization.  

The Weirdest Story of the Year

When hearing two days ago about the vapid, airy quality of Manti Te’o’s girlfriend, I immediately called a friend, a rabid Notre Dame alum who spent time as a manager.  His first response: “Gosh, this is so strange.”  He couldn’t believe that a trusting guy could be duped by some cruel prankster.  That said trusting guy played for Notre Dame and competed for a Heisman didn’t enter into our brief discussion, but it certainly could have.  Since then, the sports world has adjusted to what might be considered a tabloid story…with some interesting results.

Just like that, the darling media story of this past college football season, a story that brought the nation out of the Penn State and Petrino sagas to find some goodness in college football, went poof this week.  Much like his girlfriend, we as fans are left with a sense of emptiness…a young man that inspired so many around the country lost his legitimacy under very strange circumstances.

The odd surroundings in this story lead to more theories than can be counted.  Some want to blame the Kennedy assassination on Te’o, likening him to Lance and JoePa despite Te’o perpetrating no federal crimes.  Others see an innocent, heartfelt dude who got caught up in an online friendship and mistakenly labeled it a relationship, only to be dashed upon the shoals of despair in what amounted to a sick joke.  Finally, a third and less followed angle sees Te’o perpetrating the relationship hoax in order to cover up his homosexuality, an uncomfortable situation for a Mormon kid going to Catholic Notre Dame.

I’m giving the third theory credit for originality but not for truth.  How would no one on Notre Dame’s roster, having spent the past four years intimately close to Te’o, not know that he might be gay?  Given the vicious cycle of sports media, we certainly would have heard the rumors earlier.  Without anything corroborating that conjecture, his orientation clearly has no bearing on the question at hand.

Given the other two hypotheses, there can be no doubt that Te’o certainly embellished his “girlfriend” story.  He heard about the hoax on December 6^th, but in interviews on December 8^th and December 11^th he spoke about his love for Ms. Kekua.  In addition, a former teammate told ESPN that players knew the woman wasn’t really his girlfriend.  So Te’o might have been mistaken about the nature of the relationship, but it’s not unreasonable to think he might not have known where he stood with the disembodied voice at the other end of the phone.

What distresses me the most, however, is Te’o’s willingness to not speak about the hoax immediately, waiting 20 days to tell coaches and school officials.  Remember when the Heisman conversation came up?  Notre Dame and Te’o fans spoke often about Manti’s emotional leadership and his consistent production over his career in contrast to the flash in the pan success of Johnny Manziel in the SEC.  The main arguments for Te’o centered around his heart and ability to lead the team under a cloud of dismay after losing loved ones.  Sure, Heisman voting might have been completed by December 6^th, but for Te’o to maintain his innocence now he should have spoken up sooner then.  If the school waited to act after that kind of revelation, we might have a case of the school looking for notoriety after almost 20 years in the wilderness.  Te’o would look like the duped lovesick kid, a pitiable figure but not a guilty one.  Feasible and plausible.

But it didn’t happen.  Te’o did not speak up when he first heard his alleged paramour was 78 percent nitrogen and 21 percent oxygen.  He waited 20 days, presenting a façade to the world and the media, perpetuating his doomed heart storyline.  He might not have covered it up per se, but Te’o certainly did not do all he could to address the story.  By the same token, Notre Dame clearly didn’t want the hype leading to the National Championship to be affected.  Their “internal vetting” had 11 days between Te’o speaking up and kickoff in New Orleans.  And, it’s not as if the school planned to release details…the Deadspin story forced Notre Dame’s hand.  Ten days after the National Championship, nothing was forthcoming from the school.  Clearly, Notre Dame knew about it.  The timeline looks suspicious to anyone with a pocket calendar, so we might take under advisement that the school, like Te’o, waited to say anything until after its media value had expired.

But that does not mean Notre Dame started this hoax to help him win a Heisman…that’s quite a tough endeavor for a guy who until this season was respectable but not otherworldly in the NCAA.  Te’o heard about his loss early on, meaning that Notre Dame bet Te’o would play well enough to be in consideration for a Heisman.  That’s a stretch…no one foresaw Te’o’s season and even fewer thought in August that he would end up sitting in New York during December.  We have heard about this girlfriend for a while now, and the timeline Te’o presented for much of this season goes back to 2011.

In the end, I think Te’o got duped by some cruel pranksters.  He did what plenty of younger guys do every day…he shaved the truth about his girl.  That’s not a federal crime or a real art of deception…it’s a symptom of youth.  Both he and Notre Dame certainly perpetuated the hoax during December and January, and for that they deserve scrutiny.  But to track this thread back to August makes very little sense.  Too many variables, not enough control would have doomed such a venture unless Te’o and the team performed in the perfect manner.  And it would have to be perfect.  No one could have planned for that or, worse, relied on it.

To conclude, we need to move on from this story.  It’s a very weird story and, if still more truth comes out, will shake the faith of some college football fans.  But we have more to focus on than a figment of some young kid’s imagination.  We’re basically watching an episode of Punk’d on the national stage…and that’s it.  It’s time to understand that and move onto the new NHL season, the NFL postseason, and the rest of the sports world.

Bit #1: NFL Carousel Mistakes

In any given year, the list of NFL openings can look fairly pedestrian.  Almost always, the losers from the year before look for replacement GMs or coaches.

But for the first time in a while the coaching market found very experienced head coaches looking for a new house somewhere.  Folks like Andy Reid and Lovie Smith, after long stretches with the Eagles and Bears, looked at the football classifieds.  The Browns, with a new owner, cleaned house to bring in a new coach and GM.  In KC and Arizona, franchises looked to revitalize their fan bases by installing a new regime.

But to my eyes the collective NFL world has lost its marbles this carousel season.  Andy Reid, an experienced and successful coach, chose a team with four postseason appearances in the past 16 years.  Five of those seasons included double-digit losses.  Cleveland, in a similarly porous boat as the Chiefs, hired the offensive coordinator from Carolina…not exactly the second coming of Paul Brown.  The Eagles and Bears hired coaches that, while successful in other leagues, either have no NFL experience or not enough recent NFL experience to matter.

I am shocked about these developments and believe we remain in the Smith-Harbaugh era of coaching, whereby most NFL teams hire relative no names, hoping to land the same success as Atlanta and Baltimore did with their hires five years ago.  While some coaches of this year’s class will undoubtedly be successful, only Arizona’s hiring of Bruce Arians makes very good sense to me.

Bit #2: NBA All-Star Voting a Sham

There’s truth to the NBA being a star-centered league.  To that effect, fans vote for the All-Star starting lineups.  As a result, the lineups often contain stars who don’t deserve it.  Dwight Howard, in the middle of his worst season, will start at center.  Somehow, a team five games below .500 in the Western Conference has two All-Stars…and they will start the game.  Throw in the dubious selection of Kevin Garnett and this year brings a cast of dunces to the table.

Plenty of other leagues use fan voting for their All-Star games, but the inclusion of undeserving stars reaches a new level in the NBA.  A star like Tracy McGrady made two All-Star games despite missing 15 games total before the midwinter classic.  Democracy may be the best form of government, but it clearly doesn’t work for sports.

End of an Era on Saturday

Both my Super Bowl teams lost on Saturday, proving yet again my inability to predict anything of value this season (I picked Notre Dame, for crying out loud…and I’m still crying).  For the Packers, their inability to contain Colin Kaepernick doomed any chance they had to win this game.  No adjustments were made in the second half that looked to keep him in the pocket, and Packer defensive ends fell for the read option too many times.  In that game, the better team clearly won.

Not so in the Broncos-Ravens tilt earlier that day, one of the better playoff games you will see.  In that game, the better team looked to have the contest wrapped up before a deficit of common sense permeated the Denver sideline.

For one, I still can’t believe Broncos safety Rahim Moore misjudged the pass by Flacco.  We aren’t talking about a deep post route or a double move…Jones ran a streak down the sideline, which in layman’s terms means “Run and I’ll find you open.”  The soft prevent scheme ideally prevents such plays from happening as defensive backs keep everything in front of them.  Moore missed that message, and the team likely lost because of it.

But, of greater importance to me was the timidity of Peyton Manning in the fourth quarter.  On a 3^rd and 7 with two minutes left, Manning audibled to a run play.  Any passing play could have given Denver a first down and a berth in the AFC Championship (Baltimore was out of timeouts).  Sure, the Broncos shaved 45 seconds off the clock, but with an all-time great at quarterback, the ball should be hurled in that situation.  Burying the Ravens right then and there would leave a vastly different storyline for us to consider.  But the offensive play calling madness didn’t stop here…

After the Ravens scored and the Broncos had the ball at their own 20, Manning took a knee to play for overtime with 31 seconds on the game clock and two timeouts left.  Yes, an all-time great quarterback took a knee rather than lead what has been a prolific offense down the field.  With the air in Denver, Manning needed about 40 yards to be in makeable field goal range for Matt Prater.  Instead of slinging it and using timeouts to dice up the remaining time properly, Manning kneeled down and wound up losing the game later.  To add insult to injury, the Falcons won their game yesterday after a quick drive that began on their own 20 with, you guessed it, 31 seconds left.

While Broncos fans deserve sympathy, all football fans should acknowledge that we might have seen the last chance for Peyton evaporate on Saturday afternoon.  At age 36 he doesn’t have much time left anyway, but he will go nowhere should he continue the tactics put on display against Baltimore.  Those who want to blame John Fox don’t understand that Manning effectively makes all offensive decisions himself, laying blame squarely at his feet.  At a time when a killer instinct was needed, he refused.  Twice.  Do we think Tom Brady would have done that?  I’d bet not.

And, regrettably, Manning’s legacy will be defined by those comparisons.  I find it hard to fathom Brady checking down to a running play when he could clinch a championship game berth with a 10 yard pitch-and-catch.  Or wilting with 31 seconds left on the clock.  Definitely not doing both in the same game.  In the past, I’ve defended Manning as being better the Brady and while their physical talents might be similar, their legacies will be vastly different.  This weekend marks the 8^th time in 11 appearances that Manning has lost his first playoff game in a postseason.  His lone Super Bowl win was seven years ago, almost an eternity in sports.  Compare that to the Brady postseason stats, and the difference could not be starker.

But the eye test and not stats also deserves some lip service, and in that department Manning failed on Saturday.  His fumble (which Dan Dierdorf idiotically maintained was not a fumble during the broadcast) looked more like a bad grip on the ball than anything else.  He threw two interceptions as well.  But, when the time came for the team to rely on his arm, Manning demurred, deciding to play for overtime or give the onus back to a defense that proved unable to stop Baltimore the entire game.  And continued to prove it. 

When a great player shies away from the big moment, we have to wonder if we will ever see that old aggressiveness.  Manning’s Broncos went 13-3 this past year, dominating their competition for 11 straight games.  Manning clearly still knows how to play well, and likely will do so again next season.  But watching him take the ball out of his hands tells me he has little confidence in his abilities right now.  Either that, or he psyched himself into believing he didn’t need to leave an imprint on Saturday’s game, that it would all be taken care of by someone else.  If he doesn’t change that attitude, Manning’s physical decline will spur a reduction in his will and ability to win when it matters most.  Only time will tell, but the era of Peyton’s dominance clearly has almost faded to nothingness.

Bit #1: Early Signs Point to Patriots-49ers

Looking at the matchups for the championship games right now, I find it tough not to pick Patriots-49ers for the Super Bowl.  Yeah, I know, by now you have no business trusting me on these things, so I’ll give some things to watch for each game.

In the AFC, the balanced offense of New England with Ridley and Vereen rushing will require a different approach for the Ravens.  They possess the mountain named Haloti Ngata as a good run-stopper, but neither the Colts nor Broncos brought that kind of ground game during the previous playoff games.  On the flip side, the Patriots will need to find ways to diminish the vertical passing ability of Joe Flacco, who used play-action and his arm strength to perfection this past weekend.  Last year, the Pats escaped after a dropped pass and missed chip shot by the Ravens.  Should they come out flat like that again, New England could be in trouble.  I am not convinced losing Gronkowski will be a big deal for this team.  Unlike last year, they’ve played without him for several weeks and are doing just fine.  The offense has not run through Gronk for a while, so it shouldn’t be much of a dent in their preparation or execution.

In the NFC, the burden rests on the Falcons defense.  After Colin Kaepernick torched Green Bay for all those yards on Saturday, Atlanta will need to be better prepared for his explosiveness.  I’m also wondering how they plan to cover Michael Crabtree, who caught two touchdown passes against the Pack and has been the favorite target for young Colin.  Home-field will help, but the Falcons need something to break their way.  Throw in the tough Niner defense and this game might get ugly in a hurry.  And yet, I expect Matt Ryan to find ways to creatively spread the defense out.  The corners for San Francisco have not played as well this season as they did in 2011, so single coverage on the speedy Roddy White and Julio Jones could be exploited.

I’m calling Niners-Patriots.

Bit #2: Who cares about what Lance has to say?

Not only is Lance Armstrong a cheat, but he’s a gutless cheat.

I could quote lines from The Sting all day long, but nothing like Doyle Lannigan’s straight-faced one-liner to Henry Gondorff encapsulates how I feel about Lance Armstrong.  We all remember the doping reports incriminating him.  But how many of us remember the bevy on lawsuits Armstrong brought to bear on global publications?  He sued over ten people or organizations for printing claims about his drug use, winning many of them and reaping millions in settlements.  That a man would have the audacity to not just deny true accusations but also sue to profit from them strikes me as gutless.

Also cowardly, however, is his decision to tell his story to only Oprah, a media icon more concerned with her book club than the world of sports.  That’s not to diminish her success, but if Armstrong really wanted to face the music he’d go on a sports show or sit down with a sports journalist who would ask him the hard questions.  Hell, 60 Minutes would do the exact same thing.  Oprah likely will express empathy with Armstrong’s struggles, past and present, refusing to excoriate a man of such high profile on her show.  But this man deserves to be roasted and discredited, he needs a sheaf of court documents thrown at him.  He lied, cheated, and stole.  That trifecta should not find solace on a daytime talk show.

Hall of Fame or Shame?

Everyone acts like they didn’t see this day coming…like they couldn’t foresee the spate of players who would pop up on the same Hall of Fame ballot in 2013.  Five years ago, when Barry Bonds retired, we knew this day would come.  Then why does everyone seem to be chiming in?  For whatever reason the Halls of Fame hold a special place in the hearts of Americans, with none more so than baseball’s at Cooperstown.

But, if you ask me, yesterday’s announcement that the Hall of Fame would not be enshrining anyone this year sounds, in the words of Thomas Jefferson, a warning bell in the night.  Sure, TJ was talking about disputes over slavery, but at heart in 1820 was his worry that the country would not adapt to increased sectional conflict over a divisive issue.  I’m beginning to wonder whether baseball’s posterity might be experiencing something similar right about now.  The steroid era, known for inflated numbers, corked bats, and bigger heads (literal and figurative) received a roundhouse kick to the face yesterday.  The all-time home run leader, the only man to hit 60 home runs three seasons in a row, and the best pitcher in the last 25 years all lost out on the first ballot of the Hall of Fame!  How can we even take that phrase seriously when three greats, surefire placements according to their numbers, don’t make the cut?

Unlike many who will waffle over the coming weeks, integrity remains a part of baseball.  Thus, suspicions about performance enhancers should justifiably enter the minds of voters (who are writers, by the way).  This year’s voting class watched the steroid era unfold and gave it just desserts.  To shut the gates of Cooperstown for a year might seem highly unfair and downright un-American, but if players belong in the Hall they will be voted in eventually.  Baseball’s rules allow players to remain on the ballot for 15 years assuming they stay above 5% each year when ballots are tabulated.  The Hall belongs for those unique moments of brilliance, the manifestation where God (or evolution to be PC) somehow got everything right.  Those athletes are able to perform at a high level with class.

Like it or not, steroids give a player advantages over their competition.  After numerous trials and books, not to mention a few admissions of guilt, we know many players doped.  Those who admitted, like Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro, don’t deserve their spot in the Hall (Raf might lose his ballot spot after next year).  They cheated, and admitted it.  Players like Bonds and Clemens, easily two of the best players in their generation, went through tortuous trials (one at taxpayer’s expense) to “prove” their innocence.  Despite not guilty verdicts, many analysts point to prosecutorial miscues in both cases, not an overwhelming lack of evidence.

And that applies to the minds of voters as well…they have circumstantial evidence for those guys, not overwhelming proof.  And yet, the era of big numbers defined itself throughout baseball for ever after by pill bottles, controversy, and a broken bat thrown from the pitcher’s mound.  The new label, not one found in lawbooks or courtrooms, reads “guilty by association.”

The evidence of this could not be clearer on the 2013 ballot.  Take away the exclusion of Bonds, Clemens, and Sosa…even Craig Biggio, a member of the 3000-hit club, couldn’t sneak past.  Mike Piazza, the best hitting catcher the game has seen, couldn’t get in.  Curt Schilling, a postseason monster, couldn’t reach 40%.  Mark my words, one of those three will be in next year, but considering they all played during the steroid era, how sure can we be anymore?  Will the baseball Hall forever close itself to anyone who played their career during the 90s and 2000s?

When many speculated about the Hall’s vote this year, very few saw a donut coming.  No one believed the Cooperstown gateway guardians would punish a leadoff hitter like Biggio, with 3000 hits, simply for playing in the steroid era.  And that’s what should be discussed.  We are kidding ourselves if we truly foresaw three-quarters of the 569 voters letting in shady characters like Bonds, Sosa, and Clemens.  But to not let a 3000-hit guy in on his first ballot?  Piazza has unswervingly professed innocence as far as steroids are concerned and has received the endorsements from his GM and manager while he played for the Mets.  But a power hitter like him will have trouble based on the precedent set this week.  He might be a great hitting catcher, arguably the best…but he will need some help to dispel the cloud around him.

Like everything, time may close all wounds here.  In ten years, with the noxious fumes of steroids halfway dissipated, will the home run king be part of Cooperstown?  It’s possible that future voters will look back at the era and not hold its vices against those unfortunate enough to play right then. But for right now baseball looks unable to adjust to the steroids era.  How will it make sense of steroids in regards to the legacy of the league and its individual players?  For my money, voters should not reward cheaters.  But, a different voting base, different time, and different perception may come to bear in the years to come.

If I’m Barry and Roger, I’d keep my mouth shut and suit dry cleaned while reserving realistic expectations.  This sure isn’t going to change overnight.

Bit #1: LET PETE ROSE IN!!!

With each passing year that the all-time hits leader doesn’t find himself in the Hall or even on a ballot continues to irk me and should bother you.  He lost his position in baseball, receiving a lifetime ban, for gambling on games while managing the Reds.  This all after a career where he accumulated 4,256 hits and a .303 batting average.  He never gambled against the Reds either, and even then gambling does not provide any kind of a competitive advantage on the field unless you are purposefully throwing games.

And yet, men who admitted to physically enhancing themselves to gain the upper edge garner over 30% of the Hall vote this year.  The farce of Rose’s ban must end…baseball has evolved from those days, passing through the terrors of steroids.  Mark McGwire admitted his use, and now coaches hitting at the major league level!  The inconsistency of MLB’s position makes no sense…I know Rose might not be a likable guy, but without gaining a competitive advantage he accrued numbers to make him one of the top 10 players ever…and yet writers can’t vote for him.  Every year I think of Rose right about now, as another year passes without him being eligible. 

Bit #2: Idiocy in Dallas

The title of this Bit should shock all but the intelligent of you, but the Dallas Cowboys continue their futile organizational structure.  Jerry Jones, GM, owner, and king of the franchise, fired defensive coordinator Rob Ryan this week.

While Ryan’s defenses have not been good this year, his firing reeks of a similar situation in Philly earlier this year.  When the team looked down, the DC received the ax despite leading a decent unit up to that point.  For Ryan, he’s only ever coached one top-10 defense, and generally lugs his ample weight around through bombast, defiance, and swearing.  If you were looking to identify an unlikable cuss, any member of the Ryan family would fit the bill, and Rob’s no exception.

Still, his defense signed eight new players in the last month of the season and was able to enough to contend in Week 17.  Might have been three-quarters devoted to offensive genius that gave this success, but the Dallas D did enough to stop opponents in close games, giving Romo a chance, which he took more often than not.  The patchwork job Ryan did for the D deserves some credit and would justify letting him come back next year in the last year of his current contract.

As people have already said, if Jerry wants true change he needs to hire a GM to replace him.

Who's to Blame?

Whether we admit it or not, the blame game remains one of the best and worst hobbies of the human condition.  No matter what, we enjoy laying responsibility at the feet of one person or another, which becomes doubly true when following and observing sports.  This morning, the media members all around the country are finding culpability in the Redskins 24-14 playoff loss last night.  I might as well add to it.

I will be honest…during the game I did not once call for Cousins to come into the game.  Yes, he won a game against the Browns in December, but I continued to believe RGIII provided the best chance for the team to win last night, especially since so much of it looked to be dependent on Alfred Morris.  Who cares about the quarterback when your running back churns up yardage like Morris did in the first quarter?  My thinking was if we could return to Morris offensively, the game would be ours.

Of course, that mentality was flawed.  Without an effective passer back there, the aerial attack was rendered moot, leaving the play action game ineffective by association.  Morris carried the ball only five times in the second half, rushing for 20 yards.  Yeah, that’s still four yards per carry.  People can continue to discuss RGIII being in the game, but if he’s so hurt, give the ball to the second leading rusher in the league.  RGIII missed passes throughout the second and third quarters and, despite the success on the run by the Redskins early on, Kyle Shanahan never returned to the running game, even with a one point lead.  I think this game was winnable with a consistent running attack and a few play actions, which Griffin runs well regardless of his injuries.  For the short-term, Kyle Shanahan deserves ridicule for poor play calling as the game progressed.

As for the injury, I find it tough to blame one person.  Mike Shanahan should have seen he was hurt, Dr. James Andrews (an expert who decided to discuss RGIII’s knee publicly before this game in a very strange move) also should have said something, and Griffin definitely could have been more honest.  But, I thought about Jay Cutler a few years ago, sitting out of the NFC Championship while Twitter excoriated his lack of backbone.  I am glad Griffin kept trying to play, since he clearly was very hurt, a fact not so obvious when Cutler sat out.

 

But, at a certain point, the coaches need to make a decision.  And I will stand by my statement…Griffin gave us the best chance to win last night.  But, in the long run, his injured knee could wreak absolute havoc on the team.  His explosiveness out of the backfield has not been doubted all year and provided some electrifying plays this season.  While he might be the best option, Cousins is also a “good not great” option at quarterback.  For the sake of next season, Shanahan should have made the call to take RGIII out of the game.  And I’ll say it…Cousins likely loses the game last night anyway if he’s playing, but we would have been spared the tortuous twisting of Griffin’s braced knee in the fourth quarter.  At this point, we know he can lead this team to the playoffs.  The question is: how many more will he be healthy enough to see?

On other parts of the field, the Skins proved very well that they are ahead of the curve for what had been charted as a tough rebuilding process.  The loss stings, but for this team with rookie skill players, porous defensive backs, and plaguing injuries to go 10-6 marks a real accomplishment.  Some ESPN projections had the Skins at 2-14 this year, and most did not foresee seven wins in 2012.

So Skins fans should be worried about Griffin’s knee but, if he comes back healthy, he will have a more experienced group around him which now knows the bite of a tough playoff loss.  If the defensive backfield can add a few pieces (how about the play of Reed Doughty last night by the way?), Washington will be competitive next season.  Until then, however, we will have to move on and hope RGIII doesn’t need too much knee rehab in the coming months.

Bit #1: The return of hockey

I’ve been told my numerous sources that my blog receives very little readership whenever it discusses hockey as the main topic.  That’s good to know, as I was sorely tempted to feature the meeting of the minds that occurred in Toronto yesterday morning.  A tentative agreement has been reached that, if ratified by both owners and players, will bring hockey back somewhere around mid-January.  A quick 48 game season will commence, with all games in-conference, before the postseason.

Obviously, I am exceptionally glad the NHL will be back.  The sheer idiocy and greed inherent in these negotiations disgusts me, so the parties need to politely excuse themselves from the public eye for a while and let the game rebuild itself.  My first preference, however, would be to fire Gary Bettman.  He might be helping the league with its financial situation, but his ill-advised Sun Belt Strategy and his presiding over three lockouts during his tenure signifies his time has come.  Well done getting a deal done, Gary…now please leave.

Bit #2: Thoughts on next week’s games

Everyone will be quick to anoint the Seahawks for next week.  Make no mistake about it…Atlanta will have their hands full, especially with the power running game Marshawn Lynch brings to the table.  But, Russell Wilson posted his lowest QBR against the Redskins since losing to San Fran in Week 7.  ESPN reports his QBR plunged to 9.7 when faced with five or more pass rushers.  The Falcons can bring that kind of pressure, so I’d expect them to finally get a win in the postseason.

For Green Bay-San Francisco, the two teams meet as different entities from the Week 1 victory in Lambeau by the Niners.  Kaepernick can run the option and wreak havoc with his legs, a new twist for the Packers, who have not played a truly mobile quarterback all season.  But, for the Packers offense, they bring a running game to this contest, a marked change from the meeting in September.  Then, half of Green Bay’s offensive plays did not contain a running back at all.  Compare that to the combined 27 carries last week, and the identity of Green Bay looks mighty different four months later.  My bet…this game comes down to who kicks for San Francisco.

Not too much intrigue in the AFC, though I’d be willing to bet Baltimore gives Denver more trouble than we might think.  Their offense looked like its old self yesterday, with Ray Rice pounding the pavement a ton.  Still, expect Manning-Brady in the championship.

What to Remember in 2012

As hangovers wear off and everyone prepares for another week of work around the country, we can fully appreciate the preceding year in sports.  You will hear many “Top Moments of 2012” as the sports world reflects on what has come.  Too many of these shows, however, focus on the champions of the past year, not events that will be remembered for a long time.  In case you didn’t know, LeBron James won his first championship this year as well as a gold medal.  That he would eventually win one looked like a surety, so that won’t crack my list.  I’m here to remind you of the good and the bad from this year, not just the feel-good stories.

Penn State Scandal

Without drudging the sordid details out again, the Freeh Report’s release in the summer initiated more questions about the most iconic football coach to ever live.  That Joe Paterno’s legacy, sullied beyond recognition, received further damnation from Freeh shocked very few.  Penn State alums, angered by the continual revelations of iniquity and questionable assumptions, virulently attacked the Freeh Report, citing its lack of subpoena power and suggesting investigative malfeasance.  As a result, the new Penn State team received an outpouring of support and turned in a great year, which has overshadowed many of the revelations surrounding the program under Joe Paterno.

But it shouldn’t.  Success renders all things irrelevant in college sports, yet 2012 put the nail in the coffin for the legacy of JoePa.  That we will ever look at Penn State the same again looks unlikely.  His sterling graduation rate and conversations about integrity lost all luster when a third party investigator, hired by the Board at Penn State, found wanton disregard by Paterno for the welfare of abused children.  Watching a Penn State game in the next few years will be incomplete without a reference to the disgraced Paterno.  And that’s okay…the sadness surrounding Penn State should serve as a notice to college football programs and athletic departments around the country: sacrifice the treatment of others for success and the NCAA will render your program one-armed for the next decade.

Bounty-gate

This has to make the list for several reasons, the largest of which being the questionable role of the commissioner’s office in league affairs and the endless litigation battles that characterized the dealings.  Throw in the suspension of Sean Payton for the entire year, and some precedents were set that could echo further down the line.

That the NFL found out about the bounties does not surprise any former players…what surprised many who observe the NFL professionally was the harsh punishment levied on the Saints organization.  When the troops fail, the blame falls on the general.  Roger Goodell took that to new heights by suspending players and coaches for long periods, sticking with those suspensions even as some suspended players looked less and less involved in the whole scandal.  As a result, NFL observers and most fans should remember Bounty-gate because it likely redefined the relationship between the commissioner and the players for this CBA.  It would not surprise me to see the players opt out of the CBA down the road in order to prevent this kind of unilateral action by the commissioner.  In a more extreme measure, Roger Goodell could lose his job soon should he try to crack down in such ways again.

Personally, I will remember it for all the unnecessary news coverage the story received, especially as the different rounds of appeals wore on.  I counted three separate appeals filed by the players, asking the suspensions to be overturned, asking Goodell to recuse himself, and requesting a third party mediator.  And during it all we received “Breaking News” alerts about a team that finished with a .500 record and never factored into the season after Week 13.  No offense to those players, but with other teams actually performing on the field, a new Drew Brees sound byte about bounties isn’t going to hold my attention.

Orlando Diva

2012 stretched on for a long time, so long that I forgot all about the Dwight Howard saga last season.  Howard, doing his best pre-pubescent act, moved his way out of Orlando, sinking the tenures of both his GM and his head coach.  There were some awkward moments, like his hug of coach Van Gundy thirty seconds after Van Gundy admitted Howard was looking to exert influence over the hiring of a new coach.  Or how about his admission to RealGM.com that he wanted to stay in Orlando, one day after publicly stating he wanted a change?

So, while 2012 might be the only year we heard of RealGM.com, it also dragged basketball fans through a messy divorce between a superstar and his city.  Any questions as to the NBA being a league driven by stars can be finally put to rest…the dominating questions of the 2012 NBA season centered not on teams but on the ability of players to win or be traded.

Linsantiy

Another entrant from earlier in the NBA year that bears mentioning.  Jeremy Lin stopped the sports world for about two weeks, sparking the then-lowly Knicks on a shocking winning spree.  An undrafted free agent, Lin had bounced around a few teams before hitting it big in the Mike D’Antoni system employed in New York.  Along the way, he galvanized a huge worldwide audience being an Asian-American from Harvard who could not only play basketball, but play really well.

What’s most amazing about Linsanity to me is that it ever happened.  Stories like that, where one man takes over the spotlight for a full two weeks, are rare enough.  That the man in question here couch-surfed his way around New York City and had no realistic chance to reach great heights coming out of college makes the whole thing that much better.  Credit Jeremy Lin for his hard work and maybe a bit of luck, but the sports world also deserves credit for appreciating the unique nature of his story and giving it extensive coverage.  In a year marred by revelations of wrongdoing and other dramatics, Lin provided a welcome sight for 2012.

Lance Armstrong Finally Discovered

We had heard the stories and accusations for years.  Lance Armstrong denied them.  Well, 2012 renders his recalcitrance and evasion towards tough questions unnecessary…he won’t have to deny them anymore.

The release of reports this year from the worldwide cycling federations (names escape me right now) not only condemn Armstrong’s legacy but also any sense that he told the truth over the last dozen years.  His Tour de France titles are now gone, fully vacated as cycling tries to overcome the sickness that permeated the sport during the 2000s.  For a man once hailed as the greatest American athlete of his generation, the fall could not have been steeper.  If there was ever any question about Lance, that has been answered in 2012.

Other Notes

The U.S. won 106 medals at the London Olympics…Lionel Messi broke the calendar year scoring record in 2012, cementing his status as one of the greatest ever…European soccer had to confront persistent racism on the parts of fans and players during matches…Rookie quarterbacks made a bigger impact on the 2012 football season than any other preceding season…and, every man realized Jennifer Lawrence isn’t just good-looking, but a fantastic actress as well.

Bit #1: Consider the teams in the NFL playoffs

If you were looking for qualitative reasoning to show the NFL’s cash-cow tendencies, consider who’s in the playoffs.  Five teams (Bengals, Colts, Vikings, Ravens, and Packers) come from very small markets.  The Vikings can’t throw the ball.  Three teams have rookie quarterbacks, while two others will trot out second-year starters.  The Texans piddled away a large gap in the AFC, losing not just home-filed but a bye as well.  The traditional nationwide favorites, Dallas and Pittsburgh, won’t play this year.  Tim Tebow’s not in the postseason.  The high-flying Saints, a team that dominated offseason attention, never looked to be part of the festivities after a middling regular season…in short, the crop of playoff teams doesn’t look too exceptional.  Sure, greats Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are in it, with Aaron Rodgers on the NFC side, but everyone else boasts either an unproven or boring quarterback.  The best team in the NFC, Atlanta, scares no one due to their poor playoff history.

It is a fun thought to consider how the NBA might do with this kind of playoff landscape.  The biggest NBA market in this scenario would be the Boston area…no Los Angeles, no Miami.  A quick transliteration of NBA franchises by markets represented in the NFL playoffs (bear with me here), would put the T-Wolves, Warriors, Pacers, Wizards, Bucks, Hawks, and Warriors in the postseason.  Hardly a fearsome media force.

And yet, people cannot wait for the start of these NFL playoffs.  Many are talking about how each team could win it all this year, an aberration in many sports leagues except baseball.  And, even then, who knew the Cincinnati Reds were in the playoffs this past year except those living in Ohio?  We’re seeing the pre-eminence of the NFL making waves, putting out a motley crew of teams for its postseason, and still raking in all the attention sports has to offer.

Bit #2: National Championship Thoughts and Predictions

We’re within a week of Notre Dame-Alabama, a game pitting two of the most unlikable programs of the last 50 years.  And also two of the best.  Alabama has 8 national championships since 1950…Notre Dame has 7.  That’s one and two on the list in that frame of time, so the game will certainly bring back a feel of tradition.

Many are anointing Alabama already.  They might not be doing that in public, but SEC bias will likely skew the thoughts of fans towards Alabama, the defending national champion.  And I can’t blame them.  Alabama boasts the best offensive line in the country, meaning the vaunted Notre Dame defense will have a tough time stopping the run.  They’ve been great all year at run defense, but remember Pitt’s Ray Graham and Stanford’s Stepfon Taylor torched the Irish defense in those games.  Watching Stanford win yesterday behind Taylor reiterates that Alabama, despite prognostications to the contrary, will likely run the ball effectively.  And, if you need a throw made, A.J. McCarron can make most of them out there.

But, I’m picking Notre Dame…for almost no reason at all.  I believe in the numbers, which tell me Alabama has this game in the bag, but after seeing the Irish beat huge opponents on the road this season and seeing Alabama win their three most meaningful games be seven points or less, I’m picking the Irish to win. When the World Series rolled around, I spurned the Giants, picking the better team on paper.  Four games later, I rued that decision, so I’m going to be a little adventurous.  No team has played a tough schedule like the Irish this year, and no team has brought itself to win every game, including ones against very tough opponents on the road.  Notre Dame by 3.

Bit #3: NFL Playoffs

This week provides four games to us.  One of them (Bengals-Texans) holds interest only for its high ugly potential.  Both teams have the propensity to disappear on offense, meaning the rematch of last year’s ugliest playoff game might be even uglier.  For Colts-Ravens (or the Irsay Bowl as I’d like to call it), the hot young quarterback comes into arguably the toughest place to play in the conference.  On the NFC side, Packers-Vikings will likely be a third installment of two great games from December.  The Vikings have proven they match up well with Green Bay, so we might see a powerhouse go down early.  For the Redskins-Seahawks game, I will be turning my phone off to watch two grinding offenses led by rookie quarterbacks compete.  That Seattle will need to make the trip to the East Coast makes the matchup very appealing for DC fans, but we’ve seen the Seahawks too much this past decade in the postseason to trust our team.

Of the four, I’m picking Cincinnati, Ravens, Packers, and Redskins.  While I like Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, I don’t see their teams winning on the road like that.  The Ravens are 17-1 in their last 18 home games against non-divisional opponents.  The Indy defensive line also has not created much pressure this year, while the offensive line of the Colts can barely protect the huge investment under center.  For the Seahawks, my homerism explains my pick.  I would not be shocked at all to see Seattle win the game, but the Skins don’t turn the ball over, which marginalizes the opportunism of corners Browner and Sherman.  Should the offensive line need to start Josh LeRibeus, however, I can see the Redskins struggling to contain the pass rush of Seattle.

In the other two games, I follow my gut.  I don’t see Aaron Rodgers losing again to the Vikings at home.  With Minnesota fresh in their minds from last week, the Packers can take solace knowing they almost pulled a victory out.  If Rodgers can get some time back there behind his line, the Packers can ride him to a close victory.  For the Bengals, they need to keep the ball in their hands.  Dalton has made mistakes in big moments over his career, but if he can hold onto the ball and score, the pass defense of the Bengals should be able to do the rest.  Geno Atkins wreaks havoc on offensive backfields this season, so the running game of Arian Foster will find it difficult to gain headway.

Bit #4: Early Super Bowl Pick, for what it’s worth

If the Wild Card games go my way, the matchups would be as follows:

Cincinnati at Denver

Ravens at Patriots

Redskins at Falcons

Packers at 49ers

For the first game, Cincy has no chance to beat Denver, the most complete team of all twelve in the playoffs right now.  Cincinnati struggles to outscore everyone, so outscoring the prolific Denver offense seems a tall order to me.  The other AFC matchup provides some intriguing situations, as the Ravens possess the physicality to pound New England if Ray Rice receives a large workload, which isn’t a surety.  I’m picking the Patriots in a close game, setting up the dream Manning-Brady AFC Championship.

For the NFC, my spirit will be riding high but I can’t pick the Skins over the Falcons in Georgia.  The flaw for Washington rests in the secondary, and Matt Ryan has proven when he’s on that secondaries should fear him.  Michael Turner, a hard-working back, will also provide balance even if he doesn’t eat up too many yards on the ground.  For the Packers-49ers, the game depends on Justin Smith’s health.  Since his injury, Aldon Smith has not recorded a sack, as teams double-team him on the edge.  If he’s healthy, the 49ers can and should win this game.  But if he’s not, I’m picking the Packers.  Green Bay has the offensive weapons to attack the San Fran defense just as the Patriots did a few weeks ago.  The 49ers will need a great effort from its offense (like Vernon Davis against New Orleans last year) to win without a defensive stalwart.  I’m assuming he will barely play, if he does at all, meaning the Packers will win.

So, to recap:

Patriots at Broncos

Packers at Falcons

For the AFC Championship, the weather will likely be very rough.  That stands to favor Tom Brady, a cold-weather QB with a track record of winning AFC Championships in the snow (by luck, depending on who you ask).  But, the weather also favors the running games and defenses.  In those variables, the overall edge goes to Denver, mainly due to their formidable pass rush.  The game likely will be a slushy mix of shootout and slugfest, but I don’t see how Denver doesn’t make the Super Bowl the way they have played.

In the NFC, I don’t really like this pick.  I have a feeling not picking Seattle to win in the first round will have an effect on my accuracy here, but I do see the Packers competing in this game.  The pass rush of Atlanta will be crippled if John Abraham misses any significant time with his injury, which favors the ability of Aaron Rodgers to release the ball quickly and on time.  In five games indoors this year, Rodgers averaged 303 yards, threw 18 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.  He’s not a bad bet inside, but neither is Matt Ryan.  His home stats, however, are not nearly as good (269 avg. yards, 11 touchdowns, 9 interceptions).  I remain torn between these two teams, but I have to pick the Packers.  They have proven an ability to win in Atlanta (playoffs two seasons ago) and, if they can get past the stingy Minnesota defense, should not have any problems reaching this game.  Imagine if Seattle somehow beats both the Skins and Falcons to meet Green Bay in the NFC Championship…the reel of the Fail Mary will be imprinted in your mind come kick-off.

This leaves us with Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans:

Broncos vs. Packers

I’m going with Denver here, for all the reasons I’ve said earlier.  The pass rush, dynamic as it is, will run circles around the Green Bay offensive line.  I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to lead the team to points, but without any kind of balanced running attack the Packers will struggle to beat the Denver defense.  This makes it so much better for Peyton Manning, winning his second Super Bowl one year after neck surgery.