Thursday Night Fiasco

I attended last night’s Thursday Night Football matchup at FedEx Field.  I took three good friends, got there way too early, and hoped.  How can you not?  We’ve scored over 30 points the last two weeks, a feat that I honestly can’t remember ever seeing in my time as a Redskins fan.

Then…thwomp.  That sinking feeling by now more familiar to me than I’d care to admit.  Wondering if this city is ever going to field a championship caliber team that can actually win.  A brief moment of relief knowing the Nationals are in the postseason.  Another Cousins pick, and finally leaving the parking lot.

The stream of consciousness above is my way of not focusing on the result of the game, which speaks for itself.  What I think is important to note, however, is that for all the discussions around quarterbacks, this team remains not nearly as good from top to bottom as many thought even two weeks ago

Cousins is an obvious scapegoat.  I will admit I got onto his bus before this game, and that now I have to wonder how, if at all, he will get better.  Some throws he made were honestly excellent, and you could see him work through his progressions before finally uncorking one.  And yet, every interception he threw last night was a bad one, a pattern of poor judgment that should trouble any hardcore fan.  It’s not that Cousins has shown he’s a bad player.  At his best, he can efficiently lead the offense.  But, after last night, Cousins has thrown 15 interceptions in his career, compared with only 14 touchdowns.  If he wants to get better (and if he wants to start consistently despite RGIII), he can’t throw those balls.

That said, I’m not going to unnecessarily blame Cousins for this loss.  When looking at inflection points, I have to throw Logan Paulsen under the bus.  His fumble on the Giant-23 was putrid, as it was basically taken out of his hands.  Of course, injuries forced Paulsen into that role, but let’s not allow injury to excuse serving the ball up to the defense.  At that point, we were down 21-7 and driving.  The Giants turned it around for a field goal the other way.  I view that as a ten point swing, given our missed chance at a TD.

We need to discuss the defense as well.  After exploding a few weeks ago, the team managed just one sack.  In addition, the cornerbacks in particular looked lost last night.  Most notably, E.J. Biggers losing Reuben Randle on a 27-yard gain with six minutes left in the second quarter.  Or whoever let Victor Cruz get open for another 29 yards, allowing him to step out of bounds for a Giants field goal to finish the first half.

Coverage didn’t get better towards the middle either.  Brandon Meriweather and Perry Riley in particular are names you’ll hear as being bad.  And they were, each giving up a touchdown to Larry Donnell (who I’m convinced might have caught some of those balls regardless given his size).  Breshaud Breeland, in his first true start, had some problems.  I never thought I’d miss DeAngelo Hall, but I have a feeling he would have played better than who we put on the field last night.

Exacerbating this is the spate of injuries on the defensive line.  Cofield, Bowen, Jenkins, and Hatcher are all experiencing some kind of pain, and it showed last night just how thin we are getting on that line.  But, while injuries are a problem, I do look at Jim Haslett last night and wonder what he was thinking.  I noticed very few blitzes, and whatever he dialed up did nothing to stop New York on third down.  The Giants were 11-for-16 on 3^rd down.  On the nine third down conversions before the game was 45-14, the Giants averaged a 3^rd and 6…and gained an average of 22 yards on those plays.  Jim Haslett again called a pedestrian game.

I will add that I’m concerned also about the offensive playcalling.  I realize the NFL is a QB league now, and that running the ball just doesn’t have the same cache anymore, but Alfred Morris needs more than four carries in the first quarter.  I think the team got a little freaked after the Cousins strip-sack, and started digging into the passing playbook.  Late in the first quarter, still down 7-0, from your own 27, and Morris didn’t get looked at once.  I think that’s a mistake, since Morris averaged seven yards a carry last night.  He needs the ball, and I think with a green QB like Cousins, a strong running game is a must-have.  I firmly expect that, given the passing performance of last night, we can expect a healthy Morris does next week to start the game, even with Seattle’s stifling defense.

Oh yeah, that’s right.  We have Seattle and Arizona the next two weeks.  It looks a little easier after that (Tennessee, Dallas, Minnesota, and Tampa), but the NFC West storm will need to be navigated.  I’m a little worried our ship is made of paper.

Settle in for a long season.  The problems on this team extend beyond quarterback.

2014 Ryder Cup

Excluding the Masters, next weekend is the best weekend in golf.  For a sport not known for premier international competition (mainly because individuals represent their country every week), the U.S.-European biannual showdown is a breath of fresh air. 

A brief reminder on the format.  During the first two days (this Friday and Saturday), there will be four matches in both the morning and afternoon.  Those matches will be either “fourballs”, where each player plays his own ball and the team takes the lowest score, or “foursomes”, in which each two man team plays one ball, alternating which player hits the shot at hand.  The last day (Sunday) will feature 12 singles matches.

Two years ago, the Europeans overcame a four point deficit to win on the last day, in the penultimate singles match of the tournament.  As such, the Euros need only 14 points to retain the Cup, whereas the U.S. needs 14.5 to win.

The honest truth is Americans haven’t been good in the past few iterations of this tournament.  Of the last nine Cups, the U.S. has won two.  That doesn’t diminish, however, how close the team came in 2012, losing only due to exceptional putting by the Euros and some very poor play by one or two Americans (Brandt Snedeker was beaten handily by a Scottish guy who last won a major in 1997).  But, only one point has separated these teams in the past two competitions, meaning the level of play is at its highest ever.

Without much ado, here are the rosters, with world rankings in parentheses and the asterisk denoting a captain’s pick:

Team USA                                                      Team Europe

Keegan Bradley (26)*                                    Thomas Bjorn (30)

Rickie Fowler  (10)                                        Jamie Donaldson (28)

Jim Furyk (5)                                                  Victor Dubuisson (23)

Zach Johnson (16)                                          Stephen Gallacher (34)*

Matt Kuchar (9)                                              Sergio Garcia (3)

Hunter Mahan (21)*                                       Martin Kaymer (12)

Phil Mickelson (11)                                        Graeme McDowell (18)

Patrick Reed (27)                                            Rory McIlroy (1)

Webb Simpson (33)*                                      Ian Poulter (37)*

Jordan Spieth (13)                                           Justin Rose (6)

Jimmy Walker (19)                                         Henrik Stenson (4)

Bubba Watson  (7)                                          Lee Westwood (41)*

Some notes are obvious.  First, Tiger isn’t here, so many casual fans won’t tune in (this despite Woods’ poor play at almost every Ryder Cup).  The other is the disparity in the World Rankings.  The U.S. does not have three of the top five players in the world, and their highest-ranked player is a dude in his early 40s.  You will also notice, however, that Captain Tom Watson has picked guys who are respectably ranked in the world, whereas the European captain’s picks are towards the bottom of the table.

But, there is the disparity in recent form on the European side.  McIlroy speaks for himself after a huge year winning two majors, and Kaymer lapped the U.S. Open field back in June.  And Garcia, who competed in all the majors this year, also brings good form to this weekend.  Let’s not forget Justin Rose (who, for my money, was the guy that won the Cup in 2012), who won in Scotland in July and in DC in June.  It turns out Jamie Donaldson won at the end of August in the Czech Republic.

By contrast, the U.S. comes in with only one recent winner in Hunter Mahan.  Some are playing well.  Rickie Fowler and Jim Furyk come to mind as the guys playing the best.  Since the U.S. Open, Fowler has finished outside the top-10 only once in the seven tournaments he’s played.  I should add Fowler was top-5 in every major this year.  Or how about Jim Furyk, who has top-10 finishes in four of his last five tournaments?  Furyk also has some added motivation, given that he lost a key match in 2012 that he truthfully could have won with some slightly better putting.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the Americans doesn’t much improve.  Bubba Watson has only one top-five in his last six tournaments, and missed the cut at the Open Championship, which doesn’t bode well for his game on a links(ish) course like Gleaneagles (terminology help: a links course has very few trees and lots of tall grass, meaning a wayward drive can be a huge issue to overcome.  They are normally played in high wind, meaning a lower ball trajectory is needed.  Gleneagles won’t require that, but the lack of trees will still be there).  How about Phil, who after a riveting finish to the PGA Championship has finished 78, tied for 45, and withdrew in his last three tournaments, respectively?  Zach Johnson, more of a finesse player, hasn’t had a top ten since July.

As with many Ryder Cups, I think the respective captain’s picks will be the key factor.  While European captain Paul McGinley decided not to choose former world number one Luke Donald, his decision to include the other Englishmen Poulter and Westwood is likely to play dividends.  Poulter is gaudy at this venue, and has somehow gained 12 points in the 15 Ryder Cup matches he’s ever played.  He’s also won seven such matches in a row.  Lee Westwood is also a good choice for my money, in that he’s played 37 Ryder Cup matches in his career, and knows how best to navigate the team dynamic.  I won’t lie, I don’t know anything about Steven Gallacher, and I expect him to maybe be the guy who doesn’t play very much until Sunday.

For the Americans, Tom Watson emphasized experience.  Honestly, Billy Horschel or Chris Kirk have played better than Bradley and Simpson.  I think they would have contributed more, but both were on the 2012 team.  While I despise the following statements, Watson must be banking on those guys to come hungry and grind it out to make up for the 2012 defeat.  I don’t love Mahan, who was left off the 2012 roster, but he comes in having won at The Barclays.  His finishes since then have been woeful (64, T-59, T-23), but he has experience at this level, which might prove useful.

Overall, there should be some fascinating teams this week.  Mickelson and Bradley were a force in 2012, and Watson will have to pair them together again.  I think he will also put Fowler with Phil, given their obvious chemistry at the PGA earlier in August.  I’m curious as to what Watson does with Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth.  The latter is a rookie here, who would benefit from some kind of veteran presence to keep him level, much like the U.S. did in the President’s Cup last year.  He and Bubba played in the same group at The Masters, and I could see Zach Johnson working well with Spieth.  Patrick Reed is also young, but he is known to get frustrated on the golf course.  He might be the ideal teammate for Kuchar, who’s more laid back and easy going.  You can also expect the Southern boys Bubba and Webb to be together, after they went 2-1 in 2010. 

For the Euros, most teams can be seen from afar.  Ian Poulter and Justin Rose won both their foursomes matches in 2012, so it’s a good bet they play together at least once.  You should also expect McIlroy and McDowell to team up, as they’ve paired up six times in the Ryder Cup.  Sergio might be without an obvious dance partner, but I’d place good money on pairing him with Westwood, as they’ve had success in prior Ryder Cups.  Those are the obvious ones, and it will be curious to see what McGinley does with Martin Kaymer, who has played with both Rose and Westwood but might be good enough to shepherd his own twosome with one of the rookies.  For the other guys, it’s anybody’s guess.  The two Scandinavians (Bjorn and Stenson) might make a good tandem, but there’s no real certainty.

Overall, I am excited for this weekend.  I think despite the European dominance from a numbers standpoint, the U.S. has put together a solid roster that doesn’t really have any glaring holes, a marked improvement over 2012 when Steve Stricker and Tiger were both there.  I’m worried about Patrick Reed in team format and about Bradley in the singles matches, but otherwise this is a roster that can win.

Notice the word “can.”  I don’t think they will.  I bet it’s a two point victory, at least, for the Euros, and we will be forced to come back in two years to Hazeltine for another shot.

Football Crdibility Issues

The lesson this week is think before you act.  The theme is actions without forethought can have dire consequences, not just for oneself, but for the public at large that respects your organization.

The most obvious example of this is Ray Rice.  That he was cowardly and childishly unable to control himself cannot be denied.  After watching the video, it is tough to argue with any penalty Rice received from the NFL; such a visceral act, caught on tape, deserves swift retribution.

But the “think before you act” trope of this week most applies to the two football organizations that we watch every Saturday and Sunday.  Through inadequate thought before past actions, both the NCAA and the NFL took a huge credibility hit this week.

You know the NFL story by now, as it is displayed on every news source nationwide.  What is perhaps most baffling to me is that Roger Goodell and the powers-that-be gave Rice such a lenient suspension despite the large chance that he hit his fiancee!  Rewind six months or so, and the image of Janay Palmer sprawled across the elevator threshold comes to mind.  I am by no means a criminal pathologist, but did anyone at the time doubt Rice struck her in some way?  I suppose she might have been pushed (rather than struck) and fallen down, losing consciousness in the process.  It’s possible, but not entirely plausible.  She wasn’t groggy in that video six months ago, she was out cold.  Any football fan can tell you that it takes a large impact to elicit that kind of reaction.

And yet, he was suspended two games.  In truth, seeing the elevator footage wasn’t really necessary to determine what happened.  While it’s in dispute whether the NFL had the video at the time or not, the two game suspension was a pitifully poor decision, even if Rice had shoved, and not punched, his fiancée.  The elevator video, which has exacerbated this process, really should not have been as disruptive as it has become…if the NFL had made the right call at the beginning, today’s outrage is muted compared to what we’ve seen this week.  The decision to suspend him for two games looks doubly worse if we take current reports at their merit.  If the NFL had this video, I find it unbelievable that the league would watch it and not draw the conclusion that it would be a red rag to the bull of domestic violence awareness.  Unbelievable, and yet unfortunately plausible given the lack of thought that went into Rice’s original suspension.

But the NCAA also hasn’t escaped this news cycle unscathed.  The announcement this week to fully reinstate Penn State, effective immediately, fell like a single raindrop in the Ray Rice saga.  Avid readers of mine (the seven of you that are out there), may remember my indignation at the NCAA’s penalties two falls ago.  At the time, I viewed the penalties as unnecessary due to the lack of football-related transgressions, and still do.

But there is something to be said about the organization’s efficacy after this episode.  Are we going to be subject to overreactions by the NCAA for every poor instance of organizational control off the football field?  What about football-related issues, like clear recruiting violations?  Does it say anything that the NCAA doubts its penalties so much that it reversed itself after such a short time?

If you’re a Penn State fan, you should be happy, and I am happy you are happy.  But college football is led by a feckless group that even when overreacting doesn’t feel it has the ability or buy-in from its members to stick to its guns. 

Some have argued this is because the penalties the NCAA levied were meaningless and did not affect the guilty.  In addition, this is an extreme case, so questioning the NCAA’s credibility over handling a very tough case may not be appropriate.  But I believe it is.  For just as Roger Goodell did not think to do enough, Mark Emmert did not think of what might be enough.  He did not apply the brakes on the sanctions process for Penn State, and listened more to the righteous calls for punishment.  It is an unwelcome consequence of college athletics that even for matters unrelated to the field, the public yearns for punishing the programs, mainly because they see the manifestation of these illicit practices on the field.  That’s the nature of sports media now, and while I can sympathize that Mark Emmert was in a tough spot, he should have resisted the call for fire from on high.  A shorter postseason ban and fewer scholarship restrictions would have served his purposes very well.  Instead, we are now left with the image of an incompetent and ineffective NCAA.

Had these guys thought before they acted, the PR would look better, I’m sure of it.  That they didn’t raises questions as to the credibility of the organizations that give us the addicting balm of football in the fall and winter months.  Let’s hope they think more before their next big decisions.

Redskins Week 2

I will admit to being worried this weekend about the Redskins.  Watching the Jags hold themselves well against Philly last weekend raises concerns.  Many are doomsayers about our game last week, and I understand why.  The O-line was unable to contain the pressure, and RGIII ended up on the ground for 25 of our 66 plays.  I don’t expect that this week, since the Jags don’t bring the same pressure.

What is more concerning is the lack of touches for Alfred Morris.  After the fumble exchange, Morris received only two carries.  Bear in mind we were still down 14-6, but I think that’s a deficit you can still run on, particularly when taking the ball with 6:13 left in the third.  The passing game looked sluggish, and RGIII threw lots of shorter balls, but I remain comfortable with his overall accuracy.  In the end, you can’t fumble the ball twice inside the 10-yard line and expect to win.  Nor can you allow a blocked punt.  Eliminate those mistakes, and we are right in the game last week.

2014 NFL Predicted Finish

Someone asked me recently for NFL Predictions.  I kinda blew him off, since I continue to have trouble getting this blog at an easily maintained level.  In addition, there are some stories that have not been particularly interesting to most of you (seriously, you want me to write about the US Open in tennis?  Or golf?  Or hockey, which someone politely told me last week “no one cares about”?)

Sigh.  It can be difficult to determine what to write, but as the NFL season is upon us, I thought I’d add my thoughts for my fans (who, according to another friend, number between 5-10 actual consistent readers…go figure).

AFC East

1.      Patriots (11-5)

2.      Dolphins (8-8)

3.      Jets (6-10)

4.      Bills (4-12)

You will notice the lack of win/loss records.  Well, I got lazy and haven’t had a chance to dive in-depth on how the schedules shake out this year.

But there’s no reason not to expect the Patriots to repeat.  I continue to have questions about who exactly will be catching the ball for them, but it’s safe to expect more consistent play from their stone handed pair of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson.  And let’s not forget that defense, which will be returning Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo up the middle after injuries last year.  I continue to think Brady will bring this team to the top, perhaps singlehandedly.

The bottom three all have question marks.  Buffalo unfortunately is somewhat stuck with a decent running game but also have a Weeden-esque quarterback (after two years, he might be off the roster).  Throw in the recent acquisition of Kyle Orton as their backup, and EJ Manuel’s seat must be getting hot.  Fairness dictates we discuss their quietly imposing defense last year, which was fourth-best.  Unfortunately, Jairus Byrd flew the coop to New Orleans, and Defense Rookie of the Year runner-up Kiko Alonso is out for the season.  And a new defensive coordinator?  Might be a slog in Buffalo.

The Dolphins and Jets are both interesting.  Miami had the worst O-line last year, even before its trench fighters started shouted racial epithets at each other.  There are now four new linemen for this crew, so just maybe they have a chance.  On defense, the run game will be an issue most likely, as Dion Jordan has done nothing to warrant trading up in the 2013 draft to select him.  That said, the Dolphins were one win out from the playoffs last year.  One. Keep Tannehill upright and maybe, just maybe this works out.

As for the Jets, who knows?  If the running attack gets humming, Geno Smith might be able to roll out of the pocket a little bit.  Despite CJ2K being on multiple fantasy teams of mine (disgusting, I took him TWICE), I am skeptical.  And how about that secondary?  Seriously, I recognize these names as much as I recognize my parents’ office mates.  Some familiarity, but you need to walk away when you see them coming to avoid any really weird comments.  Maybe this team rides the Smith/Vick monster to an outside wild card chance, but I think Rex Ryan will finally be gone after a dismal defensive season.

AFC North

1.      Pittsburgh (9-7)

2.      Cincinnati (9-7)

3.      Baltimore (8-8)

4.      Cleveland (3-13)

Everyone seems to like Pittsburgh in this division this year, which is something of a gamble given the poor play of the O-line last year.  Unlike previous iterations of this squad, the Steelers will rely on rookies for defense, particularly Ryan Shazier and Stephon Tuitt.  The O-line also might emerge this year, provided everyone is healthy.  Last year, their center Maurkice Pouncey lasted three snaps before a season-ending injury.  But I’m not willing to throw Ben out yet, though this division will be close.

Cincy is a wild card.  I put them high since Baltimore and Cleveland are inspiring less confidence than the Bengals, who lost their offensive coordinator and are cursed with a QB that no one understands.  You have to love the defense though, with Geno Atkins and Vontaze Burfict leading a similar unit to last year, which ranked sixth last year.  You just have to wonder about Dalton making the grade.  He has the necessary arsenal of talent around him.  You know what, put these guys in first.  My decision is made easier by the Bengals recently pulling a very classy move for one of their own.

Baltimore looks to regroup under Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator, who is the key cog here.  Joe Flacco, who I mistakenly labeled “elite” after their Super Bowl run, had a bad year in 2013, throwing a lot of picks.  He will be aided by better pass catchers in Steve Smith, Dennis Pitta, and Owen Daniels, but the other important thing is the running game.  The Ravens averaged 3.1 yards a carry last year.  With Ray Rice suspended for two games, it may take a while to get back on track.  I don’t love a bounce-back from Flacco, as he’s too unreliable.

A not-so-talented roster in Cleveland now that Josh Gordon is gone, and they will rely on Ben Tate to keep the running game going.  Personally, I’m down on Johnny Manziel.  He may very well start some games in 2014, but I am not confident this guy will be able to put it together in the face of excellent defensive pressure.  Having to play the three teams above for six of those games will be tough for the Browns, and I would be shocked if they finish above 1-5 in divisional games.

AFC South

1.      Colts (10-6)

2.      Texans (8-8)

3.      Jaguars (5-11)

4.      Titans (2-14)

Unless Bortles can play well, this division is the room service counter of the NFL (i.e. covered in goodness-knows-what).  Shonn Greene still has a job as a depth chart starter here, which tells me all I need to know (as a colleague said this week, he bought low on Greene in fantasy about five years ago).

The Texans will be better, and are sure to benefit from the NFL’s scheduling rules which have them play all four fourth place finishes from the AFC last year.  Games against the Browns, Bills, and Raiders?  Thank you.  They aren’t first because no one of intelligence should trust Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.  Maybe newly-acquired Ryan Mallett plays into their plans at some point, but given the QB conundrum and Arian Foster’s injury concerns, I don’t see them factoring much beyond 8-8 or 7-9.

I’ve discussed the Titans, and will just add they have no real quarterback, so there’s that.

For the Jags, it could be really interesting to watch them this year.  I know they are set on Chad Henne starting for a bit, but even so I think they will be good enough for a third place finish.  Gotta love brining in Chris Clemons and Red Bryant from Seattle, who know coach Gus Bradley’s defensive system.  Even with stellar QB play, however, the Jags won’t go much higher due to a lack of quality talent.  Toby Gerhart might be a 300-carry guy, but I have little faith he will amount to much in the way of positive yardage.  There’s also not much on defense for them either, or for wide receivers.

This all leaves the Colts, who have the best quarterback in the division, and the best receivers.  Might be a little regression unfortunately, but no reason not to doubt them.

AFC West

1.      Broncos (12-4)

2.      Chiefs (8-8)

3.      Chargers (7-9)

4.      Raiders (4-12)

The Broncos are fairly self-explanatory.  Great offense, and some improvements on defense will help them tremendously.  I’m fairly excited to see how DeMarcus Ware fits in this scheme, if at all.  The addition of Aqib Talib also is going to be a huge boon for Denver.  Pretty easy road for them this year, barring injuries.

The Chargers-Chiefs dynamic is one that will be interesting and tough to predict.  San Diego got into the playoffs last year after their three competitors for the last spot all lost.  KC, meanwhile, brought the house down during the first half of 2013 before eventually coming back to Earth, before losing a playoff game they should have won.  Busy AFC West season last year.

I like the Chiefs more because, when all else on offense is equal, you have to take the better defense.  We know Rivers can pass it around the yard, and I love what Keenan Allen might be able to do this season, but the defense raises too many questions.  Will Dwight Freeney find his old game, and can Melvin Ingram live up to his hype?  What about Brandon Flowers in the secondary, or Eric Weddle who’s been fairly absent in recent seasons?  Too many questions for me at all levels of the D.  This compares adversely to the Chiefs, who bring a more polished running game to the table, albeit an offense that revolves around Jamal Charles.  On defense, I can’t expect them to recreate the gaudy +18 turnover differential from last season, but I like Justin Houston and Eric Berry to bolster it up front.  In the end, I think these teams finish very close to one another, but out of the playoff picture.

For the Raiders, I begin to think there’s nothing to be done.  Reggie McKenzie looks like a hatchet GM, who cleared the house of all the mildew but is going to need another owner to really spruce things up.  He was unable to keep Jared Veldheer or Lamarr Houston, meaning both sides of the line are weak.  Not to mention the team is starting David Carr’s brother at quarterback, a decision that I’m betting won’t work out for them.  Maybe Maurice Jones-Drew makes this team competitive every once in a while, but more of the same is in store for Oakland.

NFC West

1.      Seahawks (12-4)

2.      49ers (10-6)

3.      Cardinals (8-8)

4.      Rams (5-11)

An identical finish this year to last season, but there’s a twist.  I have San Fran over Arizona based on two things: 1.) coaching; and 2.) defensive gaps.  The Cards (who won 10 games last year I will remind you), don’t have Darnell Docket or Daryl Washington.  Come to think of it, Karlos Dansby left also, so out of the team’s main 2013 strength is zapped some energy.  I also have to trust Jim Harbaugh to keep the 49ers relevant, even if I think they will fall off a little this season due to old age on defense.  Despite that, their linebackers remain very good, and Patrick Willis is one of the top-three linebackers in the entire league.  I’ll be curious to see what happens with the departure of Dante Whitner, but if the Tampa struggles of Dashon Goldson are any guide, I think the defense will hold it together.

As an added note, Arizona’s offensive situation will be interesting this year.  Is Andre Ellington going to be the focal point?  Bruce Arians won’t say, but that hasn’t stopped me from drafting him in fantasy.  Fingers crossed.

The Rams will be a bottom of the barrel this year.  That defense is great, with the best D-line in the league by my reckoning, but the best defense will eventually crumble when on the field for the majority of games.  And while Shaun Hill may have one of those magical years, the Rams have such unspectacular rushers and receivers that it’s tough to place any trust in them.

For the defending champs, I don’t have much to add to what you are likely already reading on real sports websites.  Every time I think the defense will crumble due to less than ideal players, I remember that with a good secondary in this league, you will always be in the game.  Everyone continues to discuss Marshawn Lynch’s possible breakdown under the strain, but I’m not buying it.  Seattle will be back in the postseason, particularly if Percy Harvin spends any time this season.

NFC South

1.      Saints (11-5)

2.      Falcons (10-6)

3.      Buccaneers (7-9)

4.      Panthers (6-10)

This is a pretty boring two divisions from a predictive standpoint, mainly because I can’t fathom the Saints not winning the division.  New Orleans brings Jairus Byrd in at safety and rookie Brandin Cooks at wide receiver.  Also, they have a great secondary, as Keenan Lewis and Kenny Vacarro put in astoundingly good seasons in 2013.

The Falcons, like the Texans, will benefit from the NFL scheduling scheme.  Julio Jones is back, and the Falcons selected Jake Matthews as a tackle to anchor the offensive line.  I have to expect Roddy White to improve given he’s had the offseason to be healthy.  A deep football fan will tell you their pass rush isn’t going to be enough, and that’s likely very true, but in an offensive league I expect the Falcons to put up enough points to finish ahead of the Bucs and Panthers.

My thoughts on Carolina remain the same as everyone else’s.  They lost most of their receivers, Cam has a hairline rib fracture, and there’s no Jordan Gross anymore to protect him.  Add in their wholesale replacement of the secondary (only one starter from last year’s unit left), and if this team wants to go anywhere it will have to be on Cam’s back.  I’m skeptical.

Tampa Bay brings upside to this equation, and they are basically unpredictable right now.  Lovie Smith at coach will develop defensive players well, and a winning season isn’t out of the question.  Alterraun Verner comes over from Tennessee after some very underrated time there (though, he may be Nnamdi Asomugha 2.0, a guy who plays great as No. 1 corner on a bad team and then can’t cut it elsewhere).  It’s also nice to see Michael Johnson and Gerald McCoy line up next to each other on the D-line, meaning Tampa will have a pass rush without any issues.  But, quarterback Josh McCown is really the guy to watch here.  If he can build rapport with both Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, the offense might hum.  I remain down on the Tampa offense, simply because I don’t trust Lovie Smith to bring in the proper assistants to make it all work.  He never did with Chicago, preferring to rely on defense alone.  That will cost Tampa this year.

NFC North

1.      Packers (10-6)

2.      Bears (9-7)

3.      Lions (8-8)

4.      Vikings (7-9)

Yet again, the top three teams in this division are tough to predict.  But, Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay have the necessary tools to win the division again, provided they keep Rodgers healthy.  His absence last year strained the defense, which still isn’t particularly good even with the addition of Julius Peppers.  Won’t be enough however to keep this team from a division title, as quarterback is king these days.

Like the AFC West, the two teams in the NFC North are going to be tough for me to predict.  On the one hand, both bring large questions to this season.  For Detroit, can Jim Caldwell actually prove he’s a viable offensive coach with a quarterback other than Peyton Manning?  In Chicago, will all the defensive signings (Lamarr Hosuton, Jared Allen) and draft picks (five of the team’s 2014 draft) resurrect a once-fearful defense?  I tend to think the Bears have the advantage here, particularly if Jay Cutler can stay healthy for even nine games.  Marc Trestman has a lot of offensive weapons which he used marvelously last year for Josh McCown, and there’s no reason not to think he can’t do so again with a better quarterback.  The Lions may have added some weapons like Golden Tate and Eric Ebron, and supposedly Joique Bell will receive more carries, but the likelihood of them emerging against a healthy Cutler and Rodgers is tough to envision, particularly when you consider they benched three of their corners last year, and yet brought them back…

The Vikes are going to be fun.  Their first stretch is Rams, Patriots, Saints, Falcons, and Packers.  All in the first five weeks.  Bill Barnwell on Grantland thinks they may wait until then to start Bridgewater, thereby sacrificing Matt Cassel to the NFL schedulers in exchange for their rookie quarterback to start.  Assuming the Vikings win even two of those first games, that might not be a bad plan.  Mike Zimmer also coached at Cincy for many years, always bringing a solid defense to the table.  If he does so again, maybe Bridgewater plays well.  I like the Vikes in 2015 to be breakout contenders, just not this year.

NFC East

1.      Eagles (9-7)

2.      Redskins (7-9)

3.      Cowboys (7-9)

4.      Giants (5-11)

The Cowboys and Giants are going to stink this year, except Dallas will do so while scoring 28+ points a game.  Their defense, which lost so much last year, is put together like wet tissue paper, and I fully expect opposing QBs to notice.  Romo will get his stats this year, behind a good O-line and running a decent offense, but it will be at the expense of wins. 

The Giants also inspire no confidence.  As has been the case for many years, that O-line is just miserable.  It’s worse now with Chris Snee retiring.  And that’s the issue for the Giants, who weren’t healthy last year and will need their starters to do well.  I will add, however, that the new offense being installed in New York will relieve some pressure on Eli Manning.  He will still have to make accurate throws and rely on his receivers to catch them.  Victor Cruz will need to reappear from last year’s hibernation to make this offense improve that dramatically.

For the Eagles, I like Chip Kelly’s offense to continue working against NFL defenses.  It will regress a bit, just because Nick Foles isn’t necessarily talented enough to be setting TD marks and defensive coordinators have been studying it all summer.  But, unlike past college coaches with unique systems (such as Spurrier’s Run N’ Gun), Kelly’s initial success tells me the offense will be just fine, particularly with the healthy return of Jeremy Maclin.  Having to play the tough NFC West defenses will take its toll, hence maybe fewer wins, but overall the Eagles should come out on top.

That is if they aren’t overtaken by the Redskins.

Before I begin, I will just say Kirk Cousins is not, was not, and never will be any kind of solution at quarterback.  We’ve seen him play, and his numbers for a full season have him on pace for 30 picks.  Hyperbole perhaps, and I’m not suggesting he’d ever throw 30 picks in a season, but if Eli Manning can throw 27 in 2013, I’m not confident the less gifted Cousins will do well as a starter.  I am tired of hearing everyone pooh pooh RGIII in favor of a guy who has played some games for us and, despite winning, doesn’t provide nearly the level of talent that RGIII possesses.  And yet we are bombarded by Theismann, Fred Smoot, and other former players saying they think Cousins should start over Griffin.

It’s as if we didn’t win the division in 2012, a year in which RGIII had a 65 percent completion rate and 3200 yards…as a rookie.  If he plays poorly this year, I’ll start listening, but until then I remind those kissing Cousins to give RGIII another year.

Regarding the offense, it looks pretty excellent.  DeSean Jackson was a good addition, as was Andre Roberts.  Alfred Morris may suffer due to the lack of a zone-blocking scheme, but he continues to fall forward.  On defense, I think a healthy Orakpo/Kerrigan tandem is really what we need.  The secondary still stinks for the most part, particularly at the positions cornerback and stupid f****** safety (Meriweather), but a good pass rush will change all that.  I remain optimistic about this year, and I think we fall short of the playoffs with more time to build for next season.

Lastly, I have the following:

Broncos over Patriots in AFC Championship
Saints over Seahawks in NFC Championship

Broncos over Saints in Super Bowl