We currently stand a little over one-third of the
way through the NFL season. Since the
first week of September, we’ve seen a few surprises and a few
disappointments. The fun thing about
writing a blog is, when you predict all divisions before the season, you can
track your progress. So, I’m going to
delve into the NFL season in full, noting surprising things, predictions I
likely missed, and, ironically, more predictions for the next third of the
season.
Parity?
How many of you could have picked that almost half
the league is tied for first place in their respective divisions right
now? While many of those exist in the
AFC East, the parity at the middle levels of the NFL has truly astounded many
observers.
That’s by record, though, so how much parity can we
expect as the season progresses. Based
on a cursory glance of the standings, a few 8-8 playoff teams might be
possible. In the AFC West, for example,
any team can beat any other team on a given week. Or, given the typical New York Giants coma
midseason, might the NFC East end without a 10-win team for a second season in
a row?
Of course, the status quo isn’t mathematically
sustainable, but I’m not entirely sure we will see much separation by record as
the season continues. In six weeks, it
wouldn’t shock me to see division leaders in the AFC West with 6-6 records.
MVP
Frontrunners
Matt Ryan
– I don’t know how you can’t give the award to Matt Ryan should the season end
today. He’s thrown for almost 1,800
yards with 14 touchdowns and leads the attack of the last undefeated NFL
team. Sure, the Falcons likely won’t
keep that pace up, but nobody has meant more to their team thus far than
Ryan. He has led game-winning drives
with the best of them this year and deserves recognition, but don’t be
surprised to see him overtaken if he keeps throwing picks against bad teams
like Oakland.
Eli Manning
– I know a few Patriots fans who will disagree, but Manning has 11 touchdowns and
has beaten quality opponents to this point.
He’s also smart with the ball, taking only four sacks the entire
year. His Total QBR is third in the
league, another impressive number with the Giants playing the tough defenses in
Philly and San Fran already this year.
Peyton Manning
– Denver might be underperforming, but Manning certainly made a good case last
week leading the team back to a huge victory.
He’s thrown for the second-most passing yards and is tied for
second-most touchdowns thrown. He also
has four TDs on passes longer than 20 yards, a marked ability to change
dynamics of a game in a hurry. And,
despite many discussions of his softball throws, he’s only got four INTs.
Honorable Mention
– Brady, J.J. Watt, Percy Harvin, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Griffin III, A.J. Green
Offensive
Player of the Year
Tom Brady
– Tough not to give this award to the guy with the most yards thrown and the
most prolific offense in the league. His
three interceptions certainly show he can take care of the ball, and Brady
continues to do a lot in planning the Pats offense. While the team is 3-3, he’s been lights out.
Aaron Rodgers
– Tough also to contend with a six touchdown games on Sunday, but Rodgers has
not performed that way throughout the entire season. While I blame the Green Bay offensive line
for their inability to protect Rodgers, he can be the most dominating QB in the
game when given time. He leads the
league in TD passes and, should the Packers season improve, will be in
contention for the MVP as well.
A.J. Green
– Has anybody been better than this guy as a receiver? 43 catches for 628 yards and six touchdowns on
a team where he represents the only real downfield receiving threat. Averaging 104 yards per game has really
helped Cincy keep some momentum in the tough AFC North.
Arian Foster
– He might be averaging only 3.8 yards a carry, but Foster has scored 8 total
touchdowns for the Texans and, very importantly, has not lost the ball
once. On a team where the running game
is key to success, he has not wilted, running the ball almost 150 times. While Foster might break down in a few years,
he sure has been good while a starter in Houston.
Honorable Mention:
Eli Manning, Jamaal Charles, Peyton Manning, Marshawn Lynch, Robert Griffin III
Defensive
Player of the Year
J.J. Watt
– The dude has been a force thus far and is on pace to have 25 sacks this
season, which would shatter the regular season record. In addition to his 9.5 sacks, Watt also has
the ability to disrupt an offense, batting down 8 passes, the most by any
defensive lineman in the NFL.
Lance Briggs
– Briggs might not be getting to the quarterback as much this season, but he’s
returned both of his interceptions for touchdowns, forced a fumble, and has 26
solo tackles. His timely play certainly
elevated the Bears the last two weeks.
DRC – In one of the
best secondaries in the league, I have to identify with its best player. DRC has three interceptions, has deflected 8
passes, and has only 13 solo tackles.
Just so I can add context, those numbers tell me no quarterback is throwing
in his direction, as he’s an every down defensive back with a pittance of
tackles. (Read as: the true stat on this requires a membership fee I won't pay, so a little speculation is in order)
Honorable Mention
– Cortland Finnegan, Clay Matthews, Chris Clemons
Rookies
of the Year
Offensive – Robert Griffin III
– I want this to be homerism, but RGIII arguably has a shot at the MVP the way
he’s been playing. Only two picks
thrown, six rushing touchdowns, and a Total QBR of 74.4 definitely puts him at
the head of the rookie class. His real
defining factor remains his legwork, being able to run the ball to give the
‘Skins better field position. While Andrew
Luck might be throwing the rock around, RGIII has his team winning more games
and averaging over 25 points per game.
Other contenders right now are Luck and ‘Skins running back Alfred
Morris.
Defensive – Chandler Jones
– This category is very tough, since many rookies on defense don’t have the
chance to make an impact in their first season.
But Jones has certainly done so for the Patriots, already recording five
sacks and two forced fumbles. As of now,
he has a lock on this award.
Teams
To Doubt
While the league has given us some surprises, some
of them shouldn’t be trusted:
Cardinals
– These guys have an unreal defense that can light it up when necessary, but
their offensive line has given up the most sacks this year by far. As seen last Thursday night against the Rame,
when that kind of pressure comes the lack of quarterback options really hurts
this team. Games against San Francisco,
Green Bay, and Atlanta in the next five weeks will determine how good this team
is, but all of those juggernauts bring the pressure. Without good protection, the Cards likely
will fade.
Chargers
– Hopefully no one trusts San Diego after their collapse on Monday night, but
the truth remains that San Diego, for its high-flying start to the season, has
not won a meaningful game yet. Wins over
Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City cannot overshadow losses to Atlanta and
Denver at home. For the Chargers, they
have a reprieve in their next three games (Cleveland, KC, Tampa) but don’t
expect them to finish any higher than 8-8.
Minnesota
– I hate doing this, since the Vikings have made it so much fun for Minnesotans
this offseason, but the truth is this team runs on its skill players, not
Christian Ponder. His average yards
downfield is currently 6.83, the lowest for any quarterback with four
wins. While Percy Harvin might be good,
reasonable expectations should see him taper off a little bit as defenses learn
how to better defend him. Many of his yards,
and therefore Ponder’s yards, come after the catch. The running attack will remains stout of
course, but in the league today it’s tough to count on Minnesota if they go
down two scores.
Teams
to Trust
Certain teams aren’t playing well by record, but
still deserve your trust in their hour of need.
New England
– Shouldn’t come as any surprise, since the 3-3 record of this team does not
reflect how good the team is. Not only
does it rank in the top five of both passing and rushing offense, but New
England lost three games by a combined four points. While the secondary needs to improve (28th
in the NFL), that kind of dominating offense will definitely be better than
.500. Fun fact: Brady has a Total QBR of
15 in the final five minutes of a one possession game since 2009, and has only
completed 42% of his passes in that span.
But, no need to panic.,.the team is usually up 20.
Denver – The Broncos
present an anomaly to me, since they either show up in big ways or don’t seem
to be there at all. But, given Peyton’s
play betting money puts the Broncos with a winning record at the end of the
season. As I said above, Peyton belongs
in the MVP category for the time being, but the Broncos will need to take
advantage of a straightforward schedule for the rest of the year in order to do
so. Still, the only threats on their
schedule going forward are Cincinnati on November 4 and Baltimore on December 16.
Now it’s time to assess my predictions ahead of the
season to understand how I’ve done.
Mixed bag of course, but, generally, my predictions have not been borne
out thus far.
Definitely
Right
While the Cardinals won’t go 5-11 like I thought, I
pinpointed how bad the O-line would be.
The Cardinals have allowed 28 sacks thus far, halfway to the total from
all of last season. In the end, that
kind of performance will doom the Cardinals to a mediocre finish. In addition, the “necessary offensive
balance” definitely hasn’t been there with such an anemic running game.
I went on a limb and said I thought the Bucs, the
worst team against the run last year, would improve dramatically this
season. Well, they are currently fourth
in the league against the run, so I’ll count that as a “dramatic improvement.”
Unlike many, I did not pick the Chiefs to be near
the top of the division by season’s end.
Everyone else seemed to, but I told you all I didn’t trust Matt Cassel
at quarterback. Thankfully, the group
lovefest for KC will not go unpunished, as the Chiefs hold a last second
victory over another winless team (at the time) and Cassel, upon his return
from injury, will have to compete for his job.
So while I might have overestimated the Lions, as seen below, some of
the sting wears off when reading my Chiefs prediction again.
Another offensive line prediction turned true: my
chief questions centered on the Chargers’ offensive line. Using 13 different linemen last year did not
inspire me with very much confidence coming into 2012, and the Chargers have
not disappointed. Tied for third in
sacks allowed, the Chargers wonder why Philip Rivers has such bad days. He’s under pressure 24/7, with no help
coming.
I will say I saw the secondary problems in DC
coming. Too many questions in the
defensive backfield restored “false confidence” in me, and the unit has not
disappointed. Giving up 328 passing
yards a game, the Redskins force their offense to score in bunches to have any
shot at winning games. While I think the
Redskins will do much better than I expected as a whole, the secondary really, really,
stinks.
Likely
Right
I said in August picking No. 2 in the AFC East would
be difficult. Don’t look now, but all
three teams not from New England stand at 3-3 and don’t pass the eye test for
one reason or another. My phrasing in
August was “the generally equal nature” of the three teams, and that’s been
borne out thus far. While I’m not
necessarily thinking these teams will continue the drudge, they might.
While the Texans are undefeated, in August I said
the game against Green Bay would determine the team’s identity. Well, we may have that answer, as the Packers
trounced Houston at home. The next key
game identified is this week’s test against Baltimore. The Texans are 5-1 and will be around in
January, but the schedule right now doesn’t help them down the stretch. I do think this team will suffer a bit of
human losses as the season goes on.
The Bears O-Line continues to stink, as they’ve
allowed 14 sacks thus far. In August I
had identified that as the one weakness for the Bears, which became apparent in
the discouraging loss to the Packers in Week 2.
Still on the Bears, I thought Cutler and Marshall would “victimize”
opposing secondaries. And, while the
Bears passing attack isn’t great, Marshall has 33 receptions for 472 yards, top
10 numbers in the league. Since Cutler
has completed 90 passes, over a third are going to Marshall. I would say that tandem has shown fire this
year.
One of my bolder predictions saw the Browns losing
close games. Thus far, I’ve been mostly
right, with the Browns losing four of five by ten points or less. The Giants beat them by 14, so not too bad
but still outside my predicted range.
This one has aspects of both right and wrong in it,
but wanting to be positive I will accentuate the positives. I had many different thoughts about the
trenches in the NFC East, and did well to point out the troubles of the Cowboys
(two guards ranked towards the bottom of all starters according to
profootballfocus.com) and Philadelphia (tied for sixth in sacks allowed). Demetress Bell, in particular, drew my
ridicule and he has not played well by any metric used to modern man. But, I also picked the Eagles D-line to play
very well, and that front seven has achieved seven sacks total (i.e. less than
J.J. Watt by himself). Another of my
predictions put the Giants offensive line as one of the worst in the NFL…before
they surrendered only four sacks in six games.
Likely
Wrong
I don’t know of anyone who thought Ryan Tannehill
would lead his team to three wins this season before Week 6. But, the rookie from Texas A&M currently
averages 254 yards per game, a number very surprising given the preponderance
for NFL offenses to ease rookies into the league with short passes. But, Tannehill is throwing for yardage with a
JV receiving corps. He needs to improve
on his interceptions (six already compared with two TDs), but overall the kid
gets a gold star.
I wrote in August that “the defense of the Buffalo
Bills should carry them to a Wild Card berth.”
Needless to say, Buffalo will need a miracle to make the playoffs and it
won’t come through their defense, which has given up the most yards in the
league. The front seven I so valued
before the season thus far has conceded over 1000 yards of offense, the worst
of any team in the league. This team has
almost no playoff hopes by now.
My post in August said the Green Bay offensive line
“increased dramatically” with the addition of Jeff Saturday. Not exactly, as the Packers have given up the
second most sacks in the league. While
many of those came against the fearsome Seattle pass rush, a team with Super
Bowl aspirations cannot win with such a poor O-line. As of now, it looks very porous to me.
Definitely
Wrong
I didn’t see the Seahawks coming at all. In fact, I picked them to be 6-10 with a
suspended Marshawn Lynch. The only thing
I wrote about the defense said it would keep the team in games, a minor bright
spot in a terribly crystal ball episode.
In a bigger misstep, I said the team would be 1-7 before Week 8…they
have a 4-2 record now and could make the playoffs…oops.
I was high on the Rams preseason, which has been
tempered a little bit. While my
prediction that the O-line would improve has seen some fruit, the line still
isn’t terribly good, giving up the third most sacks in the league. The defense also has been middling, nothing
close to the “leaps and bounds” I predicted.
Still, Chris Long and Cortland Finnegan have changed games this year, so
there might be some hope.
I gave six wins to the Jaguars…and they might be the
worst team in the league right now. I
thought the passing game would really improve based on Gabbert’s preseason
performance, but the Jags average 142.8 yards through the air each game and
score only 13 points on average. Justin
Blackmon, a guy I thought would “ease the burden on the running game,” has
disappeared, with only 13 receptions all year.
Clearly, the Jags won’t do well aerially this year.
Not even a question I misread the Lions. As the season unfolded, my prediction of the
Lions finishing with twelve wins ate
at me. Looking at my other team
previews, I clearly saw a young Lions team and got excited for their season,
when truthfully the Lions have no offensive direction (I did say the running
game had “no direction,” but that doesn’t count when you predict twelve wins
for a two-win team). Also, Calvin
Johnson has not played well at all by his standards, and the defensive line
ranks 18th in sacks and 12th against the run, a far cry
from the smash mouth group I saw in August.
I had the Panthers finishing third in the NFC South
behind the Saints, but also said Cam Newton would be somewhere near 4000 yards
by the end. As of right now, he will be
short of 3800 yards in the same pace, a quick reversal from the breakout season
a year ago. Unfortunately for him, the
Panthers have a tough schedule for wins, but playing the bad secondaries in
Washington, Tampa Bay, and Oakland might be big games for Newton.
Top
Ten
The record parity this season has led to a lot of
questions about who are the top 10 teams in the NFL. Without looking at any other rankings, I’ll
give mine below:
1.
New
York Giants (4-2)
Big win against San Francisco this
past weekend. Even without Hakeem Nicks,
Eli Manning has found ways to find his receivers. Also, after the dominating performance by the
Giants O-Line against the best defense in football, who wants to face these
guys?
2.
Atlanta
Falcons (6-0)
They might boast the MVP
frontrunner, but Atlanta’s undefeated season rests on their ability to win
games when needed. They have struggled
against beatable teams, but Matt Ryan always finds a way to win. Third ranked defense too.
3.
San
Francisco 49ers (5-2)
While this team remains hopeless
when down by 10 points, the 49ers continued last season’s success with a tough
defense. Offensively, the new additions
have yet to truly make an impact, but the game management of Alex Smith
combined with a tight defense will keep their games close. Though, Smith has equaled his INT total from
all of last season already, which is an area of concern.
4.
Green
Bay Packers (3-3)
The record bother you? It should, but when Aaron Rodgers throws six
touchdowns against a top 5 defense, you know Green Bay can bring it. The defense has swarmed opposing quarterbacks
and has a winnable next three games. Put
some faith in Rodgers.
5.
Houston
Texans (5-1)
Tough to give the Texans anything more
after the disappointment on Sunday Night Football to Green Bay. They have played very well this season but
faltered against a truly elite team last weekend. Still, the rushing attack and defense travel
well, so the Texans will be a tough out for anyone.
6.
New
England Patriots (3-3)
Even after some tough losses, I
still think no one wants to play the Patriots.
Brady looks to be firing on all cylinders, Wes Welker has his groove
back, and the running game can churn up yardage. What’s keeping New England back is their pass
defense, one of the worst in the league that will likely be their downfall.
7.
Chicago
Bears (4-1)
There should be an asterisk next to this record, since the one loss for the Bears might be
the poorest offensive showing we’ve seen all year. But, the Bears have obliterated teams
since, despite those teams not being terribly good. The offensive balance plays well, but
the defense has stolen the show thus far.
8.
Baltimore
Ravens (5-1)
This team would be a lot higher
without the injuries to Lardarius Webb and Haloti Ngata. Those two players have taken the reins of
this defense from its elder statesmen, and truthfully Joe Flacco is hard to
trust when he needs to score points to win.
If he wants to be an elite quarterback, the rest of this season will
give him a forum to prove it. And he’ll
need to, because the Ravens have won their last four by a combined 14 points.
9.
Denver
Broncos (3-3)
Again, the comeback this past week
cemented the dangerous ability of Peyton Manning. The defense also chipped in big time on that
win, but Manning led long drives to the end zone consistently. Their three losses are to Atlanta, Houston,
and New England…all teams above them in my rankings. Get used to it, since the Broncos will be
around at the end.
10. Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
All my reservations about the
Cardinals do not apply to the ‘Hawks.
They’ve shut down the offenses of Green Bay and New England to give the
normally anemic offense a chance to win.
The pounding ground game also forces defenses to respect Marshawn Lynch,
to the benefit of Russell Wislon. Tough
loss to San Francisco, but the Seahawks D showed up in a big game.
Bit
#1: The final end to Lance
The fall from grace for arguably the most impressive
American athlete in the last 50 years could not have come faster. In August, Lance Armstrong lost his seven
Tour de France titles amid doping allegations when he decided the fight to
clear his name would waste more time than accomplish a meaningful end. In the last two weeks, evidence poured in,
culminating in a final report from USADA about the prevalence of doping in
American cycling and, what’s worse, the line of characters who testified against
Armstrong.
But, bureaucracy always leaves us to doubts. There are still those who doubt the Freeh
Report on Penn State, mainly because large undertakings by central
organizations always leave you with a case of morning mouth. Well, to my libertarian friends, the free
market definitely spoke on Wednesday, as Nike terminated Lance’s contract and
forced him to step down as head of the Livestrong Foundation. Nike cited “insurmountable evidence” and the
fact that Armstrong “misled Nike for years” as justifications for their
decision.
Of course, anyone convinced of Armstrong’s guilt
should agree with this decision. Nike
will continue to support the foundation’s efforts to fight cancer, as it
should, but Armstrong will no longer become one of the faces for the athletic
retailer. Keep in mind…Nike does not
drop athletes lightly. Tiger Woods, for
all his personal troubles, kept the unquestioned support of Nike. Joe Paterno did not lose his name on Nike’s
Child Development Center at Penn State until eight months after the allegations broke. The retail giant operates its own set of
standards, but the fact Armstrong lost his endorsement so quickly shocks
me.
Overall, we need to move on from Lance and let him
jump back into life the only way he can.
His credibility might be shot, but the man deserves some time to
himself.
Bit
#2: Castillo Firing
On Tuesday, Eagles head coach Andy Reid fired Juan
Castillo, the defensive coordinator.
Attentive folks will remember Castillo’s poor performance at the helm of
the defense last year, his first after spending years on the offensive side of
the ball. And, last year, the Eagles D
looked abysmal to start the season, but rallied to finish on something of a
high note at 8-8. Reid, coaching for his
job this year, brought Castillo back, only to fire him leading into their bye
week of 2012.
This decision makes about as much sense as Tyler
Perry in action movies. Castillo might
not be the best DC in football, but the problems with the Eagles center on the
offense. Philly is 31st in
scoring offense this year (amazingly, the Jags are a full four points on
average behind them…a new meaning of the pits) while being 7th in
points against. In a nutshell, the
defense has played its end of the bargain this season and, for my money, has
been the most valuable unit for any team in the NFL.
So, why would he fire Castillo? The only plausible explanation comes down to
urgency. There’s no better way to
galvanize players who might be complacent than to fire the guy who seems to be
doing his job. In essence, Reid is
putting his cards on the table, saying “no one on this team is invincible and
you might be the next guy to get a pink slip.”
While that makes sense, if he wanted to send that kind of message,
firing OC Marty Mornhinweg or benching Michael Vick might also do the trick. But, looking at this objectively, losing the
OC or best quarterback on your roster does nothing to help the team win. The defense in Philly would probably play
well if Paris Hilton coached them, meaning Reid took the least important coach
and let him go, using scare tactics while arguably maintain the team’s chances
to win. I’m skeptical, but it’s a
gamble.
Bit
#3: Who to blame for Yankees?
As I said in a post this week, the Yankees bear an
undue amount of attention from the sports world. After that post, Yanks manager Joe Girardi
benched A-Rod for Game 3. Didn’t pinch
hit for him, but summarily sat his butt on the pine. His lineup card for the postponed Game 4
relegated A-Rod’s derriere back to the wooden confines while also sitting down
center fielder Curtis Granderson, also immersed in a slump.
With New York swept out of the playoffs. That’s
part of the sports culture now, but this is arguably the easiest search
yet. Four hitters for the Yankees (Rodriguez,
Cano, Granderson, Swisher) couldn’t hit a cantaloupe thrown by Cameron Diaz
right now. Manager Joe Girardi, for all
of his mild mannerisms, has done his best to put lineups out there that can
execute. And, finally, he looks to be
conceding nobody on his team will execute for him. While the player additions ultimately track
up to GM Brian Cashman, these guys played at least decently this season, so
their slump should fall on them and not the higher levels of the organization.
Bit
#4: More dumb NBA regulations
Of all the professional leagues, the NFL’s
proportion of dumb regulations never ceases to amaze. Everything from proper practice jerseys to
sock color show up in NFL regulatory “statutes.” Keep in mind, these regulations affect
gameplay not at all.
Well, the NBA might be moving that way. A new rule will put a 90 second time on the
clock after the national anthem. At the
end of that ninety seconds, you better be ready for tip-off or else suffer a
delay of game technical foul (after a warning, of course). This new measure, born like Athena from the
head of David Stern, seeks to start games on time and limit the amount of
pregame rituals and handshakes before a game.
Since it’s a business, let’s consider how much money
the NBA stands to gain by enacting this measure. Anyone?
Seriously, just a dollar figure…oh, wait. The rule will only anger players since if
fans are turning the game on at tip-off they clearly expect to watch it. So…..what’s the point? I can’t help you there, but silly regulations
like this show misplaced priorities at the Association offices in New
York. Rather than discuss the
inconsistent foul calls seen every May and June in the playoffs, the NBA brass
would rather go after pregame rituals, which serve to excite the fan base at
the arena.
Fairly soon, will you only be able to bounce the
ball three times on a foul shot?
Bit
#5: Donald Fehr…SHUT UP!
I will do my best to make this as simple as
possible…the NHL offered its players a full 50/50 split of revenues this past
week in an effort to have a full 2012 season.
Should the agreement be accepted by October 25 and the season begun by
November 2, the NHL can still fit all 82 games.
But, NHLPA director Donald Fehr isn’t so
convinced. In a letter to players, he
acknowledged the accommodations made by owners but still wants more. According to him, the plan would result in a
$1.6 billion loss in salaries for players.
While we might want to take him at face value, the truth remains that
players cannot continue to expect over 55% of the hockey-related revenue if
they want a season. In addition, many
players have expressed recently their concern that the NHL might not be stable
from a labor perspective. While that
threat of moving abroad sounds overblown, the fact remains players grow
frustrated. Some might leave the league
entirely, depriving the union of some of its more talented members.
This is the third lockout in 20 years for the NHL,
so Donald Fehr needs to understand putting his players back to work will
ultimately boost their happiness and leverage when the next labor dispute rolls
around. A 50/50 split not only looks
fair but also represents a world of difference to previous ownership proposals.