Any Given Sunday

The vagaries of the roller coaster ride that was the 2012 NFL season are close to finishing.  As with each passing season, I reflect on the surprises, shocks, and storylines from four months of regular season football.  Every year should tell us something right?

As I pore over the week-by-week scores and some of the stats, I’m aware that we are seeing a transformation in the NFL that’s happening right before our eyes.  And yet, we lose sight of the on-field product so much in today’s society.  Questions about guns, concussions, replacement refs, union personalities, bounties, and King Goodell distract us from the larger changes going on in the NFL.  None can deny our grandfathers would not recognize the NFL in 2012.  Some point to the explosive offensive numbers, with 4,000 yard passers a-plenty.  Others look to the lack of bone-jarring hits or, at the very least, punitive measures taken against defensive players.  Still a smaller subset must think to Dick Butkus lumbering around the gridiron and realize the increased quickness of today’s footballers.

But, I think a larger change is in effect that needs to be acknowledged and, even more importantly, analyzed.  That change boils down to one word: parity.  On any given Sunday, any team in the NFL can beat another team.  Look at the 2012 season for a few examples at the top of the league:

-          The Houston Texans beat the Broncos, the current #2 in the AFC, by 6 in Week 3 only to beat the comatose Jets by the same margin two weeks later.  The same team loses blowouts to Green Bay and New England, only to beat Chicago in a gritty performance on the road and in primetime.  Throw in an OT win against the lowly Jaguars under the command of four-time retired General Chad Henne, and the team’s body of work leaves open a ton of questions.

-          The New York Giants, defending Super Bowl champions, trounce a tough San Francisco defense on the road in Week 6 26-3, only to win their next two games against Washington and Dallas by a combined nine points.  Never fear, the Giants erased the Packers by 28…only to lose the next week by one to the Redskins.  I ranked this team Number One at the one-third mark of the season.  Now?  They’ll be lucky to make the playoffs.

-          How about those Packers?  They’ve rattled off tons of victories after a tough opening, but consider losing to the Colts, beating the Lions twice by a combined 11 points, a nine point win over Jacksonville at home in Week 8, and the 42-24 blitzkrieg over Houston in Week 6.  Does that pattern of behavior match a 38-10 loss to the Giants three weeks ago?  Does that pattern match anything not named Kim?  Might be NFC North champions, but 15-1 in 2011 seems like a distant memory by now.

-          For my money, Indianapolis has a thick veneer of makeup on.  The Colts have only won one game by more than 7 points.  That would be the Jaguars, making this list for the third time.  But, of the teams the Colts have beaten, their combined record right now is 43-55.  And only one of those teams found themselves more than a touchdown behind at the end?  Take out the great win over Green Bay in the early stages, and the combined record looks very, very bad (33-51).  Not sure what you think, but don’t count on Andrew Luck getting terribly far in the playoffs if he has such problems with lowly competition now. (Did I mention they lost 35-9 to the Jets?  After last night’s showing, this certainly looks worse for Indy.)

-          Everyone knows Atlanta could be the worst two-loss team in history.  Wins against Carolina, Arizona, and Tampa Bay by a combined six points conflate poorly with a ten point loss to the Panthers two weeks ago.  But wait, a 34-0 win over the Giants!?  Winning close games deserves praise, but being 12-2 against a 72-96 opposition looks standard rather than laudable.

-          The Bears have beaten one meaningful team this year…the Vikings.  Games against the Texans, 49ers, Packers have all exposed weaknesses in the Bears game.  If this team holds on to make the postseason, we must wonder what they will do playing real competiton.

-          Not going to be the most popular thought in the room, but do we know yet which San Fran team will show up on a weekly basis?  Is it the 41 point behemoth (and it could have easily been more points) that beat the Patriots on the road, or is it the team with a 0-1-1 record against the St. Louis Rams?

In point of fact, the only power in the NFL that has beaten everybody they should beat has been the Denver Broncos.  Yes, Pats fans, you forget that loss to Arizona earlier in the season.  Now, an argument can be made that Denver has not beaten anyone of import, and until this week’s victory in Baltimore, that was true.  But, on the face of it, they have obliterated their competition every week, so why not be ranked the best team?

Because the NFL has changed.  No one expects the dominance of the Bradshaw Steelers, Montana Niners, or the Aikman Cowboys anymore, because invincible teams like that don’t exist.  Sure, an argument can be made for the Patriots, attendees of five Super Bowls in the past ten years, but the two losses they have in the big game…try and find a time when the dynasties commonly referenced lost at the end.  They don’t exist.  The 2000s sent 15 different teams to the Super Bowl, the most of any decade since the inception of the game.  While the overachievements of expansion teams like Carolina and the surprises of dormant franchises like the Seahawks and Cardinals in a given year obviously add to that number, consider that the best team did not win the Super Bowl the last two seasons.  Both the Giants and Packers were the best team in January, not over the course of the season.  Right now, the hunt is on to find the same kind of Cinderella story.  Some look to the Redskins, and if they win their next two games I will also give them my initial vote.  Recent history tells us the best team over the next two weeks will be the Super Bowl winner.  With that, here’s my current Top 10.

1.      San Francisco (10-3-1)

Do I like it?  No.  Is it necessary?  Yes, any given Sunday right?  A team many had lambasted for poor decisions and inconsistent play finds itself the envy of the league, beating the Patriots in Foxboro in December for the first time in ten years. 

2.      Denver Broncos (11-3)

I turn back to my note up above.  The Broncos came out and beat a playoff team.  A starving, half-dead playoff team, but a W over the Ravens with that margin deserves serious praise.  Should they get that Number 2 seed, Denver will be a tough out.

3.      New England Patriots (10-4)

If Brady had mailed it in, this team would have plummeted.  But in the second half we all saw just how great this team can be.  He threw only one TD, but Brady’s grasp on MVP looks stronger by the day.  A respectable loss keeps this team in the top tier for the playoff hunt.

4.      Houston Texans (12-2)

A win against Indianapolis was over early, with the score getting closer in garbage time.  Houston still hasn’t successfully proven they can beat anyone real, but stopping the Indy momentum in its tracks keeps them very relevant.  The balance of Foster/Johnson/Schaub wreaks havoc on competition.  Still, what happens when the playoffs roll around and that competition stiffens?

5.      Atlanta Falcons (12-2)

Message sent to the league: Atlanta can protect its house when needed.  The question remains…if any of the teams above this list came into the Georgia Dome right now, would Atlanta win?  Show me one more big victory and I’ll say yes.

6.      Green Bay Packers (10-4)

Not a convincing victory against a struggling Bears team, but another NFC North crown.  Still, Rodgers needs to put together big games when his team needs it.  Remember the dismantling of Houston earlier in the season?  If he gets on that train, Green Bay will vaunt up this list in a hurry.

7.      Seattle Seahawks (9-5)

Might be that I’m tough to please, but 100+ points against Arizona and Buffalo (with running up the score by coach Pete Carroll) doesn’t mean the Seahawks can play with the big boys.  That loss to Miami wasn’t too long ago.  But, Marshawn Lynch has 241 yards on his last 21 carries.  Big game Sunday night.

8.      Indianapolis Colts (9-5)

A win would have helped the cause, but Indy has won close games…they just haven’t beaten anyone of consequence in a long time.  Will need to be playing Houston’s pine in Week 17 to cement a spot in the playoffs, but the potential for 11 wins puts the Colts in the top ten by virtue of shock factor.

9.      Washington Redskins (8-6)

Could be a bit of homerism, but if the Skins can win with Kirk Cousins against a fairly tenacious Browns secondary, the team can beat most people.  Any given Sunday, right?  Seriously though, Pierre Garcon has changed the way this team can run its offense, running precise routes and using his speed to break big plays.  Now, if he would stop taunting the other team we might really get somewhere.  The most penalized team in the NFL resides in DC, a fact that will need to change come playoff time.

10.  Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

This is definitely homerism…the Cowboys don’t have a spot on my rankings, ever.  But, they should be here.

Don't Blame the Environment

I know, it’s been a while.  But, recent events in the NFL and debates surrounding those controversies led me back to Dibbles and Bits.  If you’re reading, you get a gold star for sticking with me this long.

On its face, 2012 might be the worst year the NFL has had in recent memory.  Not since the strike-shortened season in the mid-80s has the “brand” of football looked so tarnished.  First there was the bounty scandal, a meandering account of hearsay, appeals, and defamation suits.  Next the world watched in utter amazement, shock, and consternation as replacement referees marked off improper yardages, botched easy calls, and made a general nuisance of themselves.  For any professional league, those two events would be enough to make fans doubt the integrity of the sport not just for the future, but for the present.

After a fairly tame two months, the deaths of Jovan Belcher and Jerry Brown due to off-field incidents have started a new round of debate.  The larger debate surrounding guns in America, needs to be had but need not be explicated too much by yours truly.  My political opinions aside, we all live in the same society, sports fans and political hacks alike.  For that reason, it’s possible and necessary for the two subjects to sometimes intertwine.  We put ourselves through that ringer every two years with the Olympics anyway, so before you give Bob Costas a hard time, keep in mind politics pervades everything, including sports.

But the most recent death of Cowboys practice squad player Jerry Brown started a new round of questions.  The NFL’s off-field image, from bounties to concussion suits to DUIs, appears to be suffering.  Many respected observers looked at Brown’s death at the hands of a drunk Cowboys player and decided the NFL should so something to stem the tide of these tragedies.  Two weeks of death and despair can plunge even the best organized outfits into a tailspin.  The questions swirling now wonder about the gun culture and the “NFL way of life” allegedly reflected in off-field incidents like those in the past three weeks.  These are terrible tragedies that must be stopped.

Almost everyone can agree with the paragraph above.  Belcher’s murder-suicide and Brown’s untimely death deserve moments of reflection.  Nothing reinforces the preciousness of life like violent or early death.  But, it’s ironic so many people who pile on Roger Goodell for being tyrannical now want him to unilaterally “do something” to make these acts stop.  Many look to increased suspensions as ways to dissuade players from making poor choices off the field.  The truth remains, however, that the NFL already has that policy, introduced by the much-maligned Commissioner Goodell in 2007.

Perhaps you want the personal conduct policy to be more stringent.  That’s fair, but the penalties for breaking that policy are severe.  In five years of enforcement, seven players have been suspended under its auspices.  Only one of those seven was not charged with a crime in federal court.  One such player, Donte Stallworth, lost the entire 2009 season for a DUI manslaughter in Florida that killed a pedestrian.  In addition to losing that season, he spent time in jail.  Maybe he should have been kicked out of the league…maybe he should have received the two-year ban Michael Vick received for dogfighting.

The point remains: the NFL has this policy already and uses it.  Perhaps not enough, but the policy has always been fairly clear: if the commissioner’s office deems you’re off-field conduct to be detrimental to the league as a whole, you will lose money and/or games.  We should not start to question the policy simply based on the timing of two horrific incidents.  Stallworth received a huge punishment for killing someone while driving drunk…but in the current NFL it seems many forget those days.  That the deceased this past weekend actually played in the league also contributes to this, but players know they could lose significant time for poor choices surrounding alcohol.  Josh Brent, the driver in the crash that killed Brown, knew that.  This is not an NFL problem, it’s an individual player’s problem.

And yet, we as society continue to make excuses for poor individual choices by NFL players.  When these things happen, fingers are pointed at Goodell, the NFL, the Chiefs, the Cowboys, etc.  Without being intimately familiar with all the details, blame could be warranted for those entities.  I truly don’t know.  But, at its core, the issue remains with NFL players who make poor decisions.  We see Lindsay Lohan paraded through the news every 8 months with a new problem.  She lives the high life like many in the NFL.  Yet, I don’t hear anyone blaming her agent or her studio.  The “NFL life” around alcohol does not look any different from the lives of the rich and famous in Hollywood.  And yet, the NFL “needs to do something” as Peter King said earlier this week.  If that isn’t a double standard for what are both humans in similar modes of life, I don’t know what is.

Just to repeat, I cannot diminish the shock of these tragedies.  Belcher, a man clearly with his own personal demons, committed acts that will burn memories for years.  Brown lost his life tragically, in the height of his youth.  Like many, I wish the Cowboys had a car service that night.  But, Brent would have to choose to use it and not drive his own vehicle.  The NFL, for all its power, cannot guarantee he or any other intoxicated player would do so, short of banning players from driving personal cars when out.

In the end, the NFL received a bad rep these past two weeks for events they cannot control or foresee.  The tragic events can be used to strengthen existing policies, but to lay any fault at the NFL’s door strikes me as misguided.  If players are not held accountable for their off-field choices, the kid glove treatment will continue as more players make bad choices, which might lead to more deaths.  No one wants that.

Bit #1: Drew Brees needs to shut up

Before starting, I want to make clear I don’t like Roger Goodell as a commissioner.  This post might challenge that  but just want to have the record straight.

But, Drew Brees has finally hit my breaking point.  He’s been complaining all year about the commissioner’s office and its handling of Bountygate.  This past week, he branded the league offices as totally lacking credibility with the players after the initial suspensions to the Saints players were vacated by special mediator Paul Tagliabue.  For all the nobleness ensconced in Brees’ emotion, he also lacks credibility.

First, Tagliabue might have vacated the suspensions but gave clear support to the idea that the Saints had a pay-for-performance program.  The man in charge of it at the time, Gregg Williams, has admitted as much on numerous occasions.  Brees can profess ignorance all he wants, but seeing as his name has never been associated directly with the bounty pool he can’t be looked upon as an authority.  That he might be a classy guy easily can color the judgments of others, but truthfully a dude on offense does not have full insight into how the defense works.  They have separate programs and facilities during practice, so it’s not a stretch to look at Brees and say “how much did you really know?”

Of more pressing concern for me, however, is the continued sour grapes mentality pervading every Brees statement.  He sat with NFLPA officials last year for days working on a new CBA, one that allows the commissioner’s office the role of disciplinarian and sends appeals back to that same office.  That system certainly brings up a conflict of interest and wouldn’t pass for fair in any “civilized” society, but the players approved these expanded powers.  Brees may not personally have voted for the agreement, but that doesn’t matter.  His peers did, so he should accept that and move on.  Emphasizing the inefficiencies of a system you help create looks to me like hypocrisy.  Especially give the evidence confirmed by multiple bodies (at this point), Brees should accept that the commissioner has these powers and, when the new CBA expires, the players can make their voice heard by going on strike.  Until then, play football, something Bress has not done terribly well recently.

Bit #2: RGIII Injury

Living in DC, I care more about Robert Griffin’s health right now than my own.  I worry as much as anyone when he leaves the pocket, since his slight frame and speed can lead to some bone-jarring collisions.  Haloti Ngata of the Ravens provided one this past Sunday, spraining Griffin’s knee on a rough hit that momentarily rendered Griffin’s leg a noodle.

Some this week, when talking with me, take Griffin to task for running up the middle like that and not sliding.  I agree with the second point: he needs to learn that he can slide and potentially draw penalties that way.  But, for running up the middle, this was a game-tying drive in a game with huge playoff implications.  Yeah, it might not be the Super Bowl, but for the Redskins the thought of making the playoffs would drive any FedEx Field fan to hysterics.  If Griffin shouldn’t run up the middle for a first down on a game-tying drive in an important game, when should he do it?

On this note, however, the Skins should not start Griffin against the Browns.  I’d put Cousins in, see how he performs, and then put Griffin in only if the team is behind by ten or more.  It’s not worth losing him for the Eagles and Cowboys to beat the Browns.

Bit #3: Laker Woes

Rarely do I take pleasure in watching teams collapse.  But, when the Lakers acquired Dwight Howard in the offseason, I immediately hoped for them to lose, so much so that I would prefer the Heat win it all than the Lakers.

Thankfully, my hopes came true.  The Lakers, for those not watching TV on a regular basis, have stunk this year.  They sit at the bottom of the West’s playoff spots right now, already went through one coach and might be rapidly progressing through another.  Mike D’Antoni, a guy whose system never wins championships, came in with a plan to use the prodigious LA talent in an upbeat offensive system.  But the Lakers are only 9-11 with a pathetic 2-7 road record.  That won’t cut it for the crown jewel of the NBA, where everyone watches and wants to play.

The winner in all of this: Stan Van Gundy.  The man got his name muddied earlier this year for his approach to the Magic, but look at Dwight Howard after leaving Stan’s system?  I’ve heard many speculate that Howard might be a star-killer for his teammates,  but it’s amazing to think the Magic made an NBA Finals and two Eastern Conference championships under Van Gundy.  Howard has been nonexistent for Los Angeles.  And, lest we forget, how did the Magic do it?  Defense.  Mike D’Antoni should learn by now what gets you to that upper level.