I experienced a strange phenomenon this week: a request from one of you to write about Jeremy Lin. I briefly thought of telling the petitioner that I write what I want to write, not what she wants to write. I like to refer to this urge as my "inner Skip Bayless" (look him up if you don't know him). The urge feels great until you realize Bayless makes irrational sports comments (normally at high volumes) and uses as his pulpit a daytime ESPN show that people only watch during Jerry Springer commercials. So, I'm writing about Jeremy Lin.
In my last two posts I mentioned Jeremy Lin only to promote his true value through assists and steals. Lo and behold, Lin picked up 13 dimes Wednesday night against the Sacramento Kings while only scoring 10 points. The guy remains a sensation, and his performance last night cemented his ability to be effective without constantly looking for points.
What caused all the excitement? Many folks who don’t rabidly follow sports want to say, “This is cool, but why is everyone making such a big deal about it?” The answer is more than the barroom response of “Dude, it’s so awesome how can you not follow it?” Truly, a perfect storm presents the only possible explanation. I will list the factors in order of importance that, when taken together, I think explain the emergence of Lin and the surrounding mania, besides the obvious black hole for the Knicks at point guard this season.
The Knicks system favors point guards
I find this to have the least relevance to the worldwide sensation of Jeremy Lin, but coach Mike D’Antoni’s system certainly helps his production. The offense runs with the point guard who in turn pushes the transition game up the floor, slashing to the basket or finding open teammates. To emphasize, the Knicks are 13th in the league in points-per-game with their most talented player (Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony) struggling through career lows. For added emphasis, remember when Steve Nash played in this system? In his four years with D’Antoni, Nash averaged 17.45 PPG in the regular season, and has averaged 15.375 since switching coaches.
Lin plays in New York
Consider this: if Lin played the same as he has the last 7 games in Indianapolis, would anybody care outside the state of Indiana? My guess: not really. New York athletes (A-Rod, Eli, Tom Coughlin) face the two-edged sword of the large media market: do well and they love you, stumble and they hate you. Regardless, the whole sports world keeps an eye on New York.
Jeremy Lin graduated from Harvard and is Asian-American
One of the weirdest aspects of Lin mania centers around his undergraduate experience. A Harvard graduate, Lin already inserts himself into a small group. According to basketball-reference.com, only two other Harvard grads have ever played in the NBA or ABA. The other two (Saul Mariaschin and Ed Smith), played in only one year each (1948 and 1954 respectively). In addition, Americans like Harvard athletes because they mystically seem to embody the ideal combination of athleticism and smarts. Think about Buffalo Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and how impressed NFL fans were with him (before he got paid and began to stink up the place).
Lin’s racial affiliation comes into play for one reason: worldwide attention. His Taiwanese heritage opens up new markets for the NBA and strengthens existing ones. One need only watch a Knicks game to see many fans donning Taiwanese flags, especially during games on the road (I’m thinking particularly of Toronto).
The Knicks performed very poorly pre-Lin
This point need not be belabored: the 7-game win streak sparked by Lin leaves the Knicks at .500 (15-15 record). The sports world loves turnarounds, especially dramatic ones. A few close wins and people pay more attention.
Those factors are fairly obvious, but two others are not so obvious.
Lin has played a relatively easy schedule
Before New York fans send me spiteful e-mails I will explain. The schedule facing Lin up to this point has not been incredibly daunting. The Nets, Jazz, and Kings are in the bottom 10 for team defense and I can tell you from experience how horrific the Wizards play defense. In truth, the Knicks under Jeremy Lin played one team in the top 10 of team defense: the Lakers. I will gladly point to his performance in that game as exceptional if folks will admit Derek Fisher (his primary defender) has not been in shape the entire season after negotiating a labor deal over the summer.
The key will be this weekend: the Knicks welcome two top 10 defenses, the Hornets and Mavericks, to the Garden. Saturday against Dallas should loom large. It is difficult to imagine Linsanity getting bigger, but what if he beat Kobe Bryant and the defending champions on this run? Truly stupendous.
This does not happen in the NBA
Believe it or not, this may be the most important factor to explain the mania around Jeremy Lin. When I sit with my boy Jacob before the NBA season, we can usually decipher who will make the playoffs, with about an 85-90% correct percentage at season’s end. The NBA remains the most predictable league in the nation. For example, the opposite expectations and subsequent performance of the Eagles and 49ers this past season happens almost every year in the NFL. But in the NBA the hierarchy seems obvious before opening night. Even if you can’t fully predict who makes the Finals, at least 12 of the 16 teams can be predicted with certainty every year.. Many unique aspects of professional basketball contribute to this (smallest roster size so much less likely to have a Jeremy Lin), but regardless NBA fans do not expect something like this to happen.
In short, Lin-sanity combines many different factors. An undrafted, Asian-American Harvard grad currently leads a previously bad team in the biggest media market, thus far against relatively sub-par competition, defying the normal nature of things in the NBA. That about sums it up.
Bit #1 – Don’t be deceived by UVA basketball
Having suffered through four years of below average basketball at UVA, this season has provided a good outlet to appreciate the “once every four or five years” cycle that is post-Sampson Virginia basketball. But, I would caution you all to be careful about touting this team’s abilities too much. Certainly the ACC is tough, so Virginia’s top 25 ranking and current Top 5 ACC placement should put us into the Dance, and our defense creates a challenge for opponents, but this team might still be a year away from being really good.
Virginia won a big game early in the season against #15 Michigan, but since then has not won against a good team. A close 61-58 loss to Duke was our best game since the Michigan win, but a team that loses to Virginia Tech 47-45 and Clemson 60-48 does not inspire me. In addition, ESPN ranks the Virginia strength of schedule as 117, compared to 20 for Florida State, our closest competition in the conference. Will we make the tournament? As it stands now, most likely, but barring a win against UNC or Florida State in the next games, I think we can hope for a 7 or 8 seed at best.
Bit #2 – Spiking the Gunners
This past week, UEFA Champions League, a European competition of soccer clubs from each European country, began its first knockout stage. Many Americans don’t pay attention to European club futbol, but believe me you should. On Wednesday, English club Arsenal (often referred to as Gunners) travelled to play Italian powerhouse AC Milan. What transpired could best be described as Orlovsky-esque. The 4-0 drubbing is the largest European away defeat for one of the world’s oldest clubs. In about a month’s time Milan will come to London where Arsenal must make up the goal differential to move onto the next stage. Not happening.
Bit #3 – Disturbing trend in the NHL
Watching as much hockey as I do, I’ve noticed a disturbing trend: the increase in bad calls of goalie interference. Much like an NFL QB, the goaltender in hockey should be protected by the rules because he has very little ability to defend himself from collisions. The rule, however, does not mean players cannot make contact with a goaltender. Last night, Canadiens forward Max Pacioretty knocked Tim Thomas over despite trying to leap over him to avoid the penalty, but was still sent to the box anyway. While referees need to protect goalies (and QBs), these sports are contact sports and, as Carlotta says in Phantom of the Opera, “these things do happen.”
Bit #4 – February 16, 1992 – Lakers retire Magic Johnson’s number
Being in Generation Y, my perception of Magic Johnson limits itself to the guy on ESPN with a great smile and warm personality who provides infinitely better analysis than Charles Barkley over on TNT. But Johnson was so much more than that in his playing days. Johnson's career achievements include three NBA MVP awards, nine NBA Finals appearances, twelve All-Star games, and ten All-NBA First and Second Team nominations. In short, one of the best players ever and, in my opinion, until last month, the best Laker ever.
Next post coming on Sunday.
The petitioner thanks you.
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