Last week’s NFL Draft dominated the headlines for the entire week. Amateur general managers sat comfortably in their armchairs pontificating about the merits of trading down in the first round, taking multiple quarterbacks in one class, and selecting a punter in the third round. All of those things happened between Thursday and Saturday last week for one team or another, and the armchairs rejoiced at their prophetic powers. If you watched on Thursday night, you might have found yourself doing the same thing.
Considering myself one of these throned seers (at least for a week out of the year), the draft always excites. To watch these 250+ college kids enter the NFL through a yard sale almost defies everything we know about sports. In pro sports, nothing comes easy. We revere those athletes who rise to the top through hard work and struggle through adversity to reach success. So, it’s a little strange to look at 30ish ruddy-faced young men in the first round and immediately become attached to them as a fan. Yet, the draft inspires confidence and hope in so many fan bases, it stands to reason the televised first round draws a huge viewership, easily on par with a late season game.
Lest we forget, however, the draft boils down to gambling. Teams gamble with their futures on the backs of 7-13 young players each year, some of whom may never make the team and others who rise to stardom. As a friend reminded me last week, those of us in DC can act like Heath Shuler, Patrick Ramsey, Michael Westbrook, and even Robert Griffin are “sure things.” But, there is no such thing in any prospect of the draft, even with all the first round picks I just mentioned (though RGIII is close).
An article recently published by Sporting News shows a lot of the draft’s true nature in a very stark reality. In the last ten years before this year’s draft, only 31% of all first round picks made the Pro Bowl, with 17% making multiple teams. Numbers never lie, so we should read this with an eye to a couple of factors. The first of which: only one-third of the “sure thing” elite talents in the first round are likely to make an all-star team. So team officials can harp all they want about the next big player, but every one of us should keep in mind that for every Tom Brady there are two of JaMarcus Russell. We’re all guilty at one point or another of placing inordinate amounts of hope on a young skill player (DC fans more than most), but in the end it’s all a gamble, a roll of the dice to be a part of that one-third.
On the flip side, assume your team picks a one-third guy. Over 50% of those first round picks who make one Pro Bowl make two. The ratio looks much better all of a sudden, seemingly worth risking life and limb for the one player who can attain that kind of production on an annual basis. On average, if the numbers are believed, about 5 first round draftees will make multiple Pro Bowls in each first round.
Does a 10-20% justify the theatrics, the hugs from the commissioner, and the attention showered on Day 1 of the draft? I would answer in the affirmative, only because the chance for many of these players to make big money and play well for their teams, even if they might not make Pro Bowls, deserves some attention. If you consider Pro Bowls only as a return on investment, every investor in the world will take a shot if 32 randomly picked stocks will bring 10% return. The comparison is not one to one, as no team can diversify and take all 32 players, but the concept stands. It’s all a gamble, and for some of these players the embrace they received on Thursday from Roger Goodell will mark the high point of their NFL career (Bruce Irvin, I’m looking at you even though you didn’t get a hug). Knowing that, as good college players they deserve their time in the spotlight to celebrate their past successes even if the future looks less certain.
So follow your team’s picks this year, but keep in mind the true realities of the draft. Personally, I’m looking at the Jaguars with the worst draft of everyone, mainly because they took a punter in the third round. Teams with that many holes need not make a luxury punter pick, no matter how talented the guy might be. But, after the draft, only one thing is for certain about the Class of 2012: the NFL should have spent more time designing hats
Bit #1: Caps-Rangers comes down to one thing
Goaltending. Game 1 proved both these teams can play defense extremely well, with the total shots between both teams reaching only 32. And in those 32 shots, Braden Holtby must be better. He could have stopped at least two of those goals and perhaps even all three. A team like the Rangers, so sound defensively, needs to lose confidence early, making it imperative for the Caps to score first. The big wins in Boston last series all started with a strong goaltending performance and an ability to stay in games. The Caps cannot afford to fall down by two goals against a Rangers team that prides itself on shot-blocking and defensive acumen. Expect goals to be at a premium during this series. The best NHL series always feature great goalie battles and for the Caps to have any chance they must look to Braden Holtby as their savior.
Also expect Alex Ovechkin to continue his poor defensive showing. While he might be supremely talented, Ovie continues to believe his cutesy toe drags and curls will score. The NBC Sports team begged Ovechkin to shoot the puck multiple times on Saturday when he tried to dance through defenders, invariably turning the puck over. In the playoffs, pucks to the net create rebounds and garbage goals. The Caps have the bruisers to score those goals, they just need the chance to crash the net.
Bit #2: Might Boston be the worst fan base around?
For years I believed Philly sports fans held claim as the worst fan base from an ethical point of view. Booing Santa, the Body Bag game, the Broad Street Bullies all channeled into a mindset of hatred for Philly fans. Recently, however, Boston fans seems to lay claim to that crown. Their teams have enjoyed success, with every major franchise winning a championship in the last 8 years, but I suggest their arrogance has gone a little too far.
How far? Dare I say, to racism? After Joel Ward, a black player for the Caps, scored the winning goal against the Bruins last week, some Bruins fans took to their Twitters, using racial epithets. The link is provided here, though I warn you it isn’t pretty. While I do not want to lump in all Bruins fans with these fools, Joel Ward played very well last year in the playoffs, scoring a series-clinching goal for the Nashville Predators. Nowhere was such a backlash found among opposing fan groups. Some may say those fans lack passion, but I’m fairly sure passionate racism and passionate fanhood are not the same thing.
Purely putting the suggestion out there that some of the folks on the Boston bandwagon deserve to be kicked off the trail. A few bad eggs won’t ruin a batch, but does leave a bad taste in my mouth, especially after reading those Tweets.
Bit #3: The Angels are out of it
Since my hotel in Baton Rouge does not carry NBC Sports, I’ve watched lots of the Texas Rangers on ESPN. Much to the chagrin of Angels fans, this team is really good. At 16-6 they are tied with the Dodgers for the best record in the majors, a model of consistency after reaching the World Series the last two Octobers. Their chief rivals from a salary perspective, the Los Angeles Angels, find themselves 9 games back in the division with almost no production coming from Albert Pujols, allegedly worth $250 million. While there will be a first for everything (even a Pujols 2012 home run), no team has won their division being this far back at the end of April in the modern era of baseball. So maybe the Wild Card spots are in play, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Bit #4: NBA playoff predictions
So I think Miami-Oklahoma City are all but guaranteed to make the Finals this year, especially after Derrick Rose’s injury and the Thunder’s Game 1 win. More fun would be to figure out the final four teams left in the NBA. To be honest to myself, I picked the Celtics to play the Heat in the conference finals before the Hawks won Game 1, but I’ll stick with that pick. Chicago might have played well in the season without Rose, but when a player of that versatility goes missing, the team becomes more predictable and easier to beat in a best-of-seven series. On the western side, the Spurs should meet the Thunder in the conference finals if their decrepit knees can hold up, but San Antonio played much better than most teams when presented with a few days rest during the regular season. Should be a fun two months.
Bit #5: Why pick Cousins?
I like Kirk Cousins a lot. As former QB of Michigan State, he brought esteem back to East Lansing for football, a big deal considering the many prestigious programs in the Big Ten. The guy deserves a chance to win a job, based on his success and ability to pick up an offense. For that reason, he must feel sick being picked by the Redskins. He knows he has no shot to win the starting job in the next two years and must become the red-headed stepchild on the team, receiving less attention from coaches to develop his skill set. All the focus will remain on RGIII and Cousins will suffer as a consequence.
From the team’s point of view, picking Cousins also does nothing, especially when the Skins need offensive linemen like Greece needs money. This pick continues to worry me because while Griffin has undeniable talent, the organization must show a concerted effort to collect further talent around him. If that’s the case, why pick a second QB in the fourth round when plenty of bargains are available at positions of higher need. Makes no sense.
Bit #6: April 30, 1993 – Monica Seles stabbed on court
This could be the most bizarrely frightening moment in sports. Monica Seles, a young tennis sensation in the early 90s, received a stab wound from a fan in Hamburg while playing a quarterfinal match. The fan, obsessed with Steffi Graf, did not appreciate Seles’ domination of Graf the year before, winning the Australian Open over Graf. Seles had also won 7 of the previous 8 Grand Slams she had entered. While her physical injuries healed quickly, Seles did not return to tennis for two years, arguably robbing fans of one of the best players ever. She obtained success after coming back, but nothing stayed the same. The incident, a bit of an embarrassment for Germany, led to stricter security at Grand Slams. The French Open now ends with an on-court presentation, where as previously the winner received the trophy in the middle of the stands. Still, a scary moment for Seles, who played her last match in 2003.
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