On Friday, a full month of European soccer begins, one of the most exciting spectacles in sports. Ask almost anyone and international soccer dazzles many, especially Americans, who prefer to watch the beautiful game when international teams play each other. Add in the Olympics and soccer this summer should take a prime spot.
I’ve looked through the information, read it all, and figured over the past week how I think the Tournament will play out. Predictions below are for the groups in order of finish after the first group stage, followed by briefer predictions on the champion.
Group A
1. Russia
2. Poland
3. Czech Republic
4. Greece
Group A might be the most evenly matched group of the tournament, so picking the finish must take into account the real possibility of chaos reigning in these competitions. Each of these teams can advance with the proper circumstances, so take this group with a handful of salt.
That said, I’m on the Polish bandwagon. The country has scored one goal total in the European Championships but this year boasts a top tier goalkeeper in Wojciech Szczesny of Arsenal. He will likely need to play very well, but the defense of Poland looks very strong with Lukasz Piszczek about ready to break through. Add in striker Robert Lewandoski and the Poles can score goals. They’ve looked good in qualifying and are a host nation, usually a good mental advantage in group stage.
The key players for Russia, namely Andrei Arshavin and Roman Pavlyuchenko, have fallen off the proverbial map after reaching the Euro 2008 semis. Both Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko, however, played very well in Russia this season after poor stints in England. I’m picking them to advance over the Czechs, mainly because the talent of the Czech Republic has decreased significantly since the days of Nedved, despite the presence of Petr Cech after a heady Champions League victory with Chelsea.
The Greeks won surprisingly in 2004, and might be back on that darling train if all goes well. Their team, unlike previous years, consists of mainly foreign-based players, a switch for a typically insular Greek domestic league. They could beat any of the three other teams, but someone has to be picked fourth and the Greeks scored the fewest goals of any group winner during qualifying.
Key game: Russia – Czech Republic on Friday. A win for either side gives them a huge advantage, while a draw would propel the lower tiered teams into play.
Group B
1. Germany
2. Netherlands
3. Denmark
4. Portugal
Yeah, I’m picking the Portuguese to lay a dud in this tournament. They come in with no confidence, winless in 2012 despite three games. Their recent loss to Turkey raised eyebrows, but the Portuguese drew with Macedonia a week earlier, an even more surprising result. I believe in confidence and without Carvalho and Boswinga in the midfield this year, I don’t see Portugal advancing, even with Ronalso and Nani.
The Germans remain a gold standard in European football. Miroslav Klose could break Mueller’s national goal-scoring record and with players like Podolski and the league-winner Ozil of Real Madrid, the team will advance. Add in Bastion Schweinsteiger’s wizardry, and I’d say they win the group after a tough slog.
As for the World Cup runners-up, the Netherlands retains plenty of firepower from that team while their star, Robert van Persie, brings his best season to the competition. Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, and my personal favorite Dirk Kuyt also return, meaning this team can score with the best of them. Again, tough to predict, but I see them advancing on basis of talent.
The Danes are surprisingly ranked in the top 10 of the world and, I’m sure, will be keeping UEFA on their Christmas card list after drawing the Group of Death. But, I can see this team drawing one if not two of its games at least. Christian Eriksen is one of the most promising young midfielders and Nicklas Bendtner can score from the striker position. Unfortunately, starting keeper Stephan Andersen had to withdraw recently, so I don’t see the team advancing but still making life difficult for the more heralded opponents.
Key game: Portugal – Netherlands June 17. Depending on how things fall, this game will likely decide the fates of these teams. Though, if my prediction stands, the Dutch will have it locked up by then.
Group C
1. Spain
2. Ireland
3. Italy
4. Croatia
Really tough to pick second in this group, but I am not sold on the Italians this year. They were able to give up the fewest goals in qualifying leading up to the tournament, but are caught between two generations of soccer talent. Plenty of the 2006 World Cup winners are now past their prime and the young guns are just a hair behind where they should be for this team to be dominant. Gianluigi Buffon as keeper still inspires confidence, however, so they have a shot. Lack of scoring up front could sink Italy, but they will likely only need one goal to win games at the rate their defense clicks.
But, I’m betting on the Irish. Robbie Keane tied with more acclaimed players for the individual scoring lead in qualifying, so if he can exert his will the Irish should feel good. Unfortunately, their striker situation remains aqueous, as Doyle hasn’t scored enough in club or international play to inspire confidence. But, if the Irish score, they will advance.
The Croats look rudder-less right now. Bad qualifying run and not enough young talent means this team likely will have issues against its group members. An early exit looks very likely to me, and then the Croatians might have to endure a few years of soccer wasteland for a while.
The Spaniards look great in all aspects except striker. David Villa will not play due to a broken leg and Fernando Torres played poorly enough at Chelsea to warrant misgivings. The silver lining: the team has known this for months and can plan for it. Should not have any trouble with the Group Stage.
Key game: Italy – Ireland June 18. I see both teams losing to Spain and beating Croatia, so this will pit the Irish attack against Italian defenses.
Group D
1. France
2. Sweden
3. England
4. Ukraine
The English hired their new coach a month ago. Since then plenty of their players competed in the Champions League and other season ending tourneys, meaning the new scheme of Roy Hodgson will be difficult to institute in such little time. Also, the English will be without Frank Lampard and Gareth Barry at midfield, additionally losing fantastic forward Wayne Rooney to suspension for the first two games. In a final act of stupidity, the English will be based in Poland but play all their group games in Ukraine, meaning the travel will be a factor. I don’t see them advancing.
As for the French, they enter the competition after a disastrous World Cup where the players revolted against their coach. Things appear calmer now, as Frank Ribery and Karim Benzema will provide teeth to the French attack. In back, the defense could be victimized, but not enough to be knocked out early.
The Swedes present an interesting case. Welcoming back talisman striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic to the fold has changed the attitude of the team, resulting in an offensive outburst during qualifying where Sweden scored the second most goals of all teams. While the emphasis on offense might lead to some counterattacks, the Swedish should do well against the weaker midfields of England and Ukraine.
For the host nation, they have never qualified for this championship, being selected automatically this year as a host nation. Andriy Shevchenko, a Ukrainian great, will not recreate his AC Milan days but still provides the only hope for this team. Given that host nations do well normally, Ukraine might advance, but it will take a world of effort to do so.
Key game: England – France July 11. This game will set the tone for the Group, especially as England must find its identity and have at least two points after the first two games before Rooney’s return.
Looking at those predictions, my final four will look somewhat predictable, but unfortunately European soccer is a little chalky right about now. My semifinals after all that are Germany-Netherlands and Spain-France. Both matchups would be great, pitting bigger European powers against one another, but ultimately I’m picking a reprise of the World Cup, with Spain vs. the Netherlands.
That final hopefully will be very different from the bore two summers ago. The orange-clad Dutch will ride the efforts of their stars through to the final, and I bet by then Spain’s well-worn veterans will fade after a long club season. After all, no team has won three major championships in a row, and I’m not about to pick against history.
Bit #1: NBA Rewind
I haven’t given much time to the Spurs-Thunder series, but it’s time I paid attention. The Thunder have won three straight games and while I saw the Spurs fight hard, I think Gregg Popovich deserves some criticism and the Thunder deserve tons of praise. He refused to adjust after not only after the Thunder solved defending Tony Parker late in Game 2 but also acted as if the frontcourt could not create. Thus far, can you name any Spurs forward besides Duncan who’s made any difference in the last three games? Matt Bonner can’t get open, DeJuan Blair can’t take on Ibaka, and Kawhi Leonard, the steal of last summer’s draft, has become a non-factor. Bringing in Manu Ginobili to start the game didn’t spark the Spurs, so I’d recommend Pop use Stephen Jackson earlier in the game. He’s made huge shots this series and, most importantly, can fire up almost anybody, for better or worse.
As for the improbable result last night in Miami, we should seriously start considering how the Celtics are winning this series. Veteran savvy helps of course, but they’ve also benefitted from some truly jaw-dropping coaching decisions. Erik Spoelstra cannot keep Chris Bosh, the best forward on his team, on the bench in the fourth quarter. Bosh guards and rebounds as well as Udonis “My Left Sideburn Looks Hideous” Haslem and can actually create offense when needed. I’m also worried about the culture on the Heat, which looks to be much more centered on LeBron and Wade than before. While those guys are active, they seem to be the only ones active. No Heat player other than the Big 2 scored more than 9 points in Game 5, and the team still lost by less than five. Seriously, it’s time to share the ball. As much as players must execute, coaches must teach. If the Heat lose, expect Spoelstra to be fired quickly. I think they’ll win though, since Bosh will be back fully.
Bit #2: Stanley Cup Sewn Up Tonight…for those of you who watch
Any thought the Kings might not win tonight should be banished. This team has stampeded through competition, utilizing a sports scorched earth policy on the road. The New Jersey Devils, quick to say before Game 3 that they were close after two 2-1 defeats, cannot be confident after a 4-0 drubbing in Game 3. Jonathan Quick will likely win the Conn Smythe, as he’s been a backstop the whole postseason.
More distressing to me is the apparent lack of interest in hockey from regular viewers. The teams may not be too exciting, but the ratings for this year are down significantly, with game ratings dropping anywhere between 12 and 37 percent from last year. The lack of deep-rooted traditional powerhouses and Canadian teams this year certainly does little to bring in viewers, but for a culture that loves the violence of football I would think Americans would be able to get behind hockey as well. Just shows some sports will always reign in their originating cultures.
Bit #3: The Big Ten needs to get on board
The Big Ten now wants a selection committee to determine the four teams who would enter into the proposed new playoff system for college football. The SEC, on the other hand, wants the four best teams regardless. The Big Ten needs to understand that just because their teams have not fared well in recent championship games does not mean they can make demands like this. Voters every year rate Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, or other Big Ten champions highly, so if a Big Ten team went undefeated they’d undoubtedly be a top four contestant.
A selection committee complicates matters unnecessarily. The BCS system has been in use for 10 years and, with tweaks (eliminate coaches’ votes), would be fine for selecting the top four. There’s no need to jump through the hoop of who should fill a committee when a rating system that weights strength of schedule and other polls already exists.
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