Any Given Sunday

The vagaries of the roller coaster ride that was the 2012 NFL season are close to finishing.  As with each passing season, I reflect on the surprises, shocks, and storylines from four months of regular season football.  Every year should tell us something right?

As I pore over the week-by-week scores and some of the stats, I’m aware that we are seeing a transformation in the NFL that’s happening right before our eyes.  And yet, we lose sight of the on-field product so much in today’s society.  Questions about guns, concussions, replacement refs, union personalities, bounties, and King Goodell distract us from the larger changes going on in the NFL.  None can deny our grandfathers would not recognize the NFL in 2012.  Some point to the explosive offensive numbers, with 4,000 yard passers a-plenty.  Others look to the lack of bone-jarring hits or, at the very least, punitive measures taken against defensive players.  Still a smaller subset must think to Dick Butkus lumbering around the gridiron and realize the increased quickness of today’s footballers.

But, I think a larger change is in effect that needs to be acknowledged and, even more importantly, analyzed.  That change boils down to one word: parity.  On any given Sunday, any team in the NFL can beat another team.  Look at the 2012 season for a few examples at the top of the league:

-          The Houston Texans beat the Broncos, the current #2 in the AFC, by 6 in Week 3 only to beat the comatose Jets by the same margin two weeks later.  The same team loses blowouts to Green Bay and New England, only to beat Chicago in a gritty performance on the road and in primetime.  Throw in an OT win against the lowly Jaguars under the command of four-time retired General Chad Henne, and the team’s body of work leaves open a ton of questions.

-          The New York Giants, defending Super Bowl champions, trounce a tough San Francisco defense on the road in Week 6 26-3, only to win their next two games against Washington and Dallas by a combined nine points.  Never fear, the Giants erased the Packers by 28…only to lose the next week by one to the Redskins.  I ranked this team Number One at the one-third mark of the season.  Now?  They’ll be lucky to make the playoffs.

-          How about those Packers?  They’ve rattled off tons of victories after a tough opening, but consider losing to the Colts, beating the Lions twice by a combined 11 points, a nine point win over Jacksonville at home in Week 8, and the 42-24 blitzkrieg over Houston in Week 6.  Does that pattern of behavior match a 38-10 loss to the Giants three weeks ago?  Does that pattern match anything not named Kim?  Might be NFC North champions, but 15-1 in 2011 seems like a distant memory by now.

-          For my money, Indianapolis has a thick veneer of makeup on.  The Colts have only won one game by more than 7 points.  That would be the Jaguars, making this list for the third time.  But, of the teams the Colts have beaten, their combined record right now is 43-55.  And only one of those teams found themselves more than a touchdown behind at the end?  Take out the great win over Green Bay in the early stages, and the combined record looks very, very bad (33-51).  Not sure what you think, but don’t count on Andrew Luck getting terribly far in the playoffs if he has such problems with lowly competition now. (Did I mention they lost 35-9 to the Jets?  After last night’s showing, this certainly looks worse for Indy.)

-          Everyone knows Atlanta could be the worst two-loss team in history.  Wins against Carolina, Arizona, and Tampa Bay by a combined six points conflate poorly with a ten point loss to the Panthers two weeks ago.  But wait, a 34-0 win over the Giants!?  Winning close games deserves praise, but being 12-2 against a 72-96 opposition looks standard rather than laudable.

-          The Bears have beaten one meaningful team this year…the Vikings.  Games against the Texans, 49ers, Packers have all exposed weaknesses in the Bears game.  If this team holds on to make the postseason, we must wonder what they will do playing real competiton.

-          Not going to be the most popular thought in the room, but do we know yet which San Fran team will show up on a weekly basis?  Is it the 41 point behemoth (and it could have easily been more points) that beat the Patriots on the road, or is it the team with a 0-1-1 record against the St. Louis Rams?

In point of fact, the only power in the NFL that has beaten everybody they should beat has been the Denver Broncos.  Yes, Pats fans, you forget that loss to Arizona earlier in the season.  Now, an argument can be made that Denver has not beaten anyone of import, and until this week’s victory in Baltimore, that was true.  But, on the face of it, they have obliterated their competition every week, so why not be ranked the best team?

Because the NFL has changed.  No one expects the dominance of the Bradshaw Steelers, Montana Niners, or the Aikman Cowboys anymore, because invincible teams like that don’t exist.  Sure, an argument can be made for the Patriots, attendees of five Super Bowls in the past ten years, but the two losses they have in the big game…try and find a time when the dynasties commonly referenced lost at the end.  They don’t exist.  The 2000s sent 15 different teams to the Super Bowl, the most of any decade since the inception of the game.  While the overachievements of expansion teams like Carolina and the surprises of dormant franchises like the Seahawks and Cardinals in a given year obviously add to that number, consider that the best team did not win the Super Bowl the last two seasons.  Both the Giants and Packers were the best team in January, not over the course of the season.  Right now, the hunt is on to find the same kind of Cinderella story.  Some look to the Redskins, and if they win their next two games I will also give them my initial vote.  Recent history tells us the best team over the next two weeks will be the Super Bowl winner.  With that, here’s my current Top 10.

1.      San Francisco (10-3-1)

Do I like it?  No.  Is it necessary?  Yes, any given Sunday right?  A team many had lambasted for poor decisions and inconsistent play finds itself the envy of the league, beating the Patriots in Foxboro in December for the first time in ten years. 

2.      Denver Broncos (11-3)

I turn back to my note up above.  The Broncos came out and beat a playoff team.  A starving, half-dead playoff team, but a W over the Ravens with that margin deserves serious praise.  Should they get that Number 2 seed, Denver will be a tough out.

3.      New England Patriots (10-4)

If Brady had mailed it in, this team would have plummeted.  But in the second half we all saw just how great this team can be.  He threw only one TD, but Brady’s grasp on MVP looks stronger by the day.  A respectable loss keeps this team in the top tier for the playoff hunt.

4.      Houston Texans (12-2)

A win against Indianapolis was over early, with the score getting closer in garbage time.  Houston still hasn’t successfully proven they can beat anyone real, but stopping the Indy momentum in its tracks keeps them very relevant.  The balance of Foster/Johnson/Schaub wreaks havoc on competition.  Still, what happens when the playoffs roll around and that competition stiffens?

5.      Atlanta Falcons (12-2)

Message sent to the league: Atlanta can protect its house when needed.  The question remains…if any of the teams above this list came into the Georgia Dome right now, would Atlanta win?  Show me one more big victory and I’ll say yes.

6.      Green Bay Packers (10-4)

Not a convincing victory against a struggling Bears team, but another NFC North crown.  Still, Rodgers needs to put together big games when his team needs it.  Remember the dismantling of Houston earlier in the season?  If he gets on that train, Green Bay will vaunt up this list in a hurry.

7.      Seattle Seahawks (9-5)

Might be that I’m tough to please, but 100+ points against Arizona and Buffalo (with running up the score by coach Pete Carroll) doesn’t mean the Seahawks can play with the big boys.  That loss to Miami wasn’t too long ago.  But, Marshawn Lynch has 241 yards on his last 21 carries.  Big game Sunday night.

8.      Indianapolis Colts (9-5)

A win would have helped the cause, but Indy has won close games…they just haven’t beaten anyone of consequence in a long time.  Will need to be playing Houston’s pine in Week 17 to cement a spot in the playoffs, but the potential for 11 wins puts the Colts in the top ten by virtue of shock factor.

9.      Washington Redskins (8-6)

Could be a bit of homerism, but if the Skins can win with Kirk Cousins against a fairly tenacious Browns secondary, the team can beat most people.  Any given Sunday, right?  Seriously though, Pierre Garcon has changed the way this team can run its offense, running precise routes and using his speed to break big plays.  Now, if he would stop taunting the other team we might really get somewhere.  The most penalized team in the NFL resides in DC, a fact that will need to change come playoff time.

10.  Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

This is definitely homerism…the Cowboys don’t have a spot on my rankings, ever.  But, they should be here.