What's Wrong with the Caps

I’ve neglected many topics this year, not the least of which is my boys in red.  The Caps, for those who have not been following, are 23-21-8, which puts them a terrible seventh in the Metropolitan division.  If there’s a saving grace to that prior sentence, it’s that there is a five-point differential between the second place and seventh place team in the division.  In short, anything can happen.

But, I think a bold prediction is necessary here.  Without getting too teary-eyed, I don’t think the Caps will make the playoffs.  There are too many problems, many of which have been exposed during the most recent losing skid.

First off, the goaltending has not been there.  The two top guys, Braden Holtby and Michal Neuvirth, are a combined 17-17-3.  Each of them boasts a goals-against-average over 2.75, meaning they are 50^th and 48^th in that category across the NHL.  Up until this past Saturday, Braden Holtby had not won a game since December 7^th, and this from a guy who some thought before the season had a chance to make Canada’s Olympic roster.  Philip Grubauer provided a much-needed spark, as he looked great in his first six games, only to drive off the statistical deep, eventually being sent back to Hershey with a pat on the back.  He’ll be back, but there’s no doubt he was unable to hold up this season.

Goaltending woes are nothing new for this city.  We have seen flashes in the pan many times and are by now totally desensitized to the great young goalie no longer playing that “great.”  That Semyon Varlamov is being mentioned in Vezina discussions might be further evidence of a goalie curse being inflicted on DC.  But, this group needs to get better.  Many pundits thought Neuvirth might make good trade bait going forward, but at this point we’d be lucky to catch a few wins using him.  I think Holtby needs to step up and take this job.  He stopped all 21 shots on Saturday, and that needs to continue.

So, the goalies stink.  But the other big problem…defense.  Again, nothing new, but this is bad enough to demand a firing.  The Caps certainly don’t pass the eye test when it comes to defense, but the advanced stats back me up.  Of all the shots in Caps games, only 47.6% are taken by the Caps.  That’s 25^th in the league, with the rung beneath them the Who’s Who of an NHL Fail Blog from the past few years (Sabres, Oilers, and Flames to name a few).  Once Jack Hillen went down with an injury, the blue line became something of a revolving door.  Connor Carrick, Tyson Strachan, Nate Schmidt, and Alexander Urbom have all seen playing time this year.  Don’t know who they are?…that’s alright, neither do I.

They are all young, certainly.  All inexperienced and looking for a home when it comes to the NHL.  The downside is growing pains.  I do think Carrick and Schmidt, not to mention Dmitry Orlov who played last season, might actually be able to start next year, so this bodes well for the future.  But, the Caps need a makeover on defense.  Mike Green, despite the accolades he received a few years ago, has not been the same since his groin injury last year.  He’s got a minus-12 rating this season with only five goals, yet still receives almost twenty minutes each night.  I’m not an NHL coach nor am I an “expert,” but for a dude who used to score almost 20 goals a season, he clearly isn’t living up to the billing.  My personal opinion would be to demote Green down the roster and let John Carlson take a greater role.

Coach Oates has recently said that young, speedy D-men will create the style of play the Caps need.  It’s tough to argue with that, but clearly there is a lack of reliable depth on the blue line.  And that’s a roster problem, one George McPhee has decidedly avoided for at least the past four years.  McPhee traded a reliable defenseman in Dennis Wideman in 2012 for peanuts, and has done nothing to replace that kind of veteran presence.  This year it isn’t worth bringing in a rental guy, but over the offseason McPhee needs to make a strong move to bring in a veteran D-man who can shore up the poor play by rookies and Mike Green.

One thing I can say: Adam Oates is not the problem.  The dull murmur that maybe Oates wasn’t the right fit has not been borne out.  First, this is his first full season with the team, so I’m prepared to give the guy a little time to sort it all out.  In addition, he continues to spark the offense with his scheme.  Moving Alex Ovechkin to the right wing has seen Ovie revitalize his game to the offensive juggernaut that drove the Caps during the past decade.  In addition, Oates has taken advantage of prodigious offensive talent through the power play, which currently ranks fourth in the entire league (though the Caps are 4-for-38 on the PP during their recent skid).  The team’s goals per game is solidly average and above many Metropolitan rivals.  Offensively speaking, the team doesn’t have much wrong with it.  This is a defensive and goaltending problem, further evidence that the Caps seem unable to find a consistent identity going forward.

Overall, Washington has not done well this year.  Undoubtedly they have underachieved and been stuck in many ruts at different points of the season. I fully expect the Caps to miss the playoffs, as Carolina, Philly, Columbus, and the Rangers have all made serious strides in the division.  The goaltending in particular has been too inconsistent and when the defense has been this bad, a good goalie makes the difference.  If the Caps don’t make the postseason, I think George McPhee needs to be fired.  Knowing DC, he will win a Cup somewhere else, but he has done nothing with a talented roster in the last eight years since Ovechkin arrived.  He has been the GM for almost 16 years, and he’s reached the end of his shelf life.  The struggle for an identity can be laid at his feet, and not without cause.  GMGM has made many moves, very few of which have worked for long-term playoff success.

The Caps are suffering and I think the season is perilously close to being lost.  Might be premature, but things have gone so poorly this year, I have to wonder where this team goes for their next proposed solution.  Regardless, the defense and goaltending (and the roster building) need to be better and, concurrent with that, the team should go all in on an identity.  Without that, we’ll continue to wallow in the wilderness.