Olympic Hockey Preview

Olympic hockey has no peer.  Playing at the highest level for your country with the chance of the sweet gold at the end.  From a fan’s perspective, it’s akin to an All-Star Game played on a slightly bigger rink with checking and actual puck possession.  NHL players have been allowed at the Olympics since 1998 in Nagano, and the tournament has benefited immensely from their inclusion.  There is however a notable difference: a physical game is not necessary to succeed.  Unlike the NHL postseason, IIHF referees are quick to blow the whistle.  No fighting is allowed and checking, while present, can be somewhat muted in comparison to the NHL.

That said, the competition is across the board awesome.  It doesn’t shock me that no event better epitomizes Olympic glory than the Miracle on Ice.  Being one of two fully team sports (bobsled being the other), hockey brings together more of the world’s best than any other winter Olympic sport out there.  Roster size is a great thing clearly.

But, in order to watch, you have to know what the teams are like.  Read on, and you’ll know.  Please note I am not discussing women’s hockey, as I know nothing on that front.

The men’s tournament features three groups with four teams.  Each team plays a round-robin format.  At the end of those games, all group winners (decided by points like the NHL) and the best second-place team receive first round byes in the elimination round.  The remaining eight teams play a preliminary round, meaning when all is said and done we have eight teams in the quarterfinals.

Rather than do groups, I’ll split the teams up into classes:

Wait, before that, I want to ensure everyone knows I’m a cultural chauvinist when it comes to hockey.  People get unduly offended when the media ascribes the “World Champion” label to whoever wins the American league in any sport.  Sure, they don’t play every team in the world, but the level of play is radically higher in the NHL than anywhere else.  I would support an annual NHL-KHL (Russia) tilt, but I think the NHL would win 90% of the time.  All this is to say, that the players without an NHL-laden roster will not have a chance in this tournament, and my predictions are driven as such.

Snowball’s Chance in “H-E-double hockey sticks”

Only one of the following teams will make the quarterfinals barring some big collapse by one of the more established squads.  But, the podium is likely out of the question.

Austria

The Austrians haven’t competed since Salt Lake City in 2002, where they finished twelfth.  The premier draw here is Thomas Vanek, the longtime Buffalo Sabre who has topped 30 goals four times in his NHL career.  Besides him, Michael Grabner might come away with a cool play or two, as he can move around the ice at quite the clip.  Otherwise there isn’t much notable about this team, except for the two guys who play for a hockey club called Red Bull Salzburg.  Sweet.

Latvia

Latvia typically is the team you love beating in video games.  They have qualified for the Olympics three times since 1998, but have never made it to the quarterfinals.  That likely won’t change this year, with only one NHLer on the roster.  This will, however, be the last chance for American audiences to see Sandis Ozolins, who backstopped the Colorado Avalanche to a 1996 Cup and at one time finished third in the voting for best NHL defenseman.  He was once a great and was the most recognizable Latvian player.  The team will benefit from an experienced coach, as Ted Nolan, currently the coach in Buffalo, will be behind the bench.

Norway

This team finished tenth in Vancouver, and boasts some more animate objects to hockey trivia.  Mats Zuccarello, a scrappy player for the Rangers, is the only guy currently playing in the NHL right now, but Patrick Thoresen was the leading scorer for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL last year.  It’s amazing looking at how nationalities seem to matter so much in hockey: the Norwegians have never medaled, whereas their Scandinavian kin in Sweden and Finland have medaled ten times combined.  Still, look for Zuccarello to play well, as he will be the focal point of the offense along with Thoresen.

Slovenia

Slovenia has never qualified for the Olympics until now.  Anze Kopitar was a Cup winner with Los Angeles and is absurdly underrated.  But, the only other guy with NHL experience on this roster is Jan Mursak, who also scored five goals in the 2010 World Championships and has excelled in the Slovenian league.  Unfortunately, that’s equivalent to being valedictorian of summer school, and he has shown nothing against higher competition.

 Switzerland

Definitely the best for last of this group, and this team has been a tough out. The Swiss finished sixth in Torino and eighth in Vancouver, but they left some destruction in their wake.In ’06 the Swiss beat Canada 2-0 in the group stage and forced a Canadian shootout victory in 2010.  Two close losses to the U.S. in 2010 adds up to a profile of a tough team with the potential to upset the right opponent and reach the semifinals.

This team will run from the blueline.  Mark Streit is a former NHL captain who has always been known for his offense and will set the leadership tone.  Roman Josi is the partner for Ryan Suter in Nashville, meaning he plays against the best in all situations.  Raphael Diaz has also contributed solidly for Montreal this season, and again brings speed out of the defensive zone.

At forward, there isn’t much.  Damien Brunner found some success in Detroit but just recently moved to the Devils.  Some see the Swiss with a few offensive weapons, but most are unknown quantities.  The goaltending is definitely the best of this group, as Jonas Hiller has, at points in his NHL career, looked elite.  He is a better goalie than those featured on some of the teams above the Swiss from a talent perspective.  If he plays well, Hiller could conceivably carry Switzerland to a surprise top-four finish.

The Podium Would Be Nice

These are the teams that have a sniff at the podium.  Russia may be a guarantee, but for them any medal showing would be a huge confidence boost.

Slovakia

A surprising fourth-place finish in 2010 put the Slovaks on the proverbial map.  They’ve always had top talent in key places but have never reached the stratoshphere occupied by their competitors.  Sadly, this year may not be much better.  Eleven of the 25 roster spots are currently filled by Euro league players, meaning a big effort will be needed to beat more talented squads.

The forwards provide some intriguing storylines.  Pavol Demitra was a longtime NHLer who provided great passing in 2010, but he died in the KHL plane crash just one year later.  Into his position is Michal Handzus, who is a Cup winner with Chicago.  Handzus will have Marion and Marcel Hossa as his bookends.  The older Hossa is a household name by now and has been a potent scorer for about a decade.  Marcel played some in the NHL, but has put in good performances at home in Slovakia.

The news yesterday, however, that Marion Gaborik will not make the trip could really sink Slovakian chances.  He has been on the downturn in recent years, but Gaborik adds depth scoring that may be needed.  Tomas Kopecky, also a Cup winner with Chicago in 2010, will add experience, and Thomas Tatar has put it a great season in Detroit.  After that, it’s tough to see where this team will look.

The biggest player is Zdeno Chara, likely the best D-man in the NHL right now.  He’s 6’9” and carries a cannon for a slap shot.  The rest of the blue line is good as well, as Andrej Sekera and Andrej Meszaros will be a great second pairing with the combined bruise from Meszaros and the offense from Sekera.  Lubomir Visnovksy has been a staple on this team for years, but his concussion problems make him doubtful at this point.

All the pressure will come on Jaroslav Halak.  As one of St. Louis’ goalies this year, he has a 24-8-4 record.  His real strength could be the ability to get hot at the right time…I still remember his dominance against the Caps in the 2010 playoffs.  If he plays as well as he has been, the Slovaks could have a chance to make some noise.

Czech Republic

One has to wonder what a combined Czechoslovakian team would look like.  Alas, politics gets in the way of sports fun, but either way it’s clear the split in the early 90s helped the Czechs.  They won gold in Nagano (behind the best Olympic performance by a goalie ever) and bronze in Torino, but finished a lowly seventh in 2010.

This year’s team has some strange dynamics, and if they lose many will wonder what could have been.  From a strength perspective, the first three lines are fairly money.  Jaromir Jagr can still play, Patrick Elias brings added leadership, David Krejci is an underrated player with a great two-way game, and Jakub Voracek has been known to get hot in Philly.

But, the team has made some strange inclusions, namely leaving Radim Vrbata at home.  He has 37 points this season.  Jiri Hudler of Detroit also was left off the roster, despite 43 points.  This is all to make way for Petr Nedved, a former NHLer best remembered for an unwarranted high rating in NHL ’98.  He’s a fun addition at age 42, but with him, Jagr, and Elias all on the same team, the Czechs might have durability issues.  I will add this team selected Martin Erat as an injury replacement even though he has scored one goal for the Caps in his 60+ Washington games.

Defense and goaltending also might be somewhat questionable.  The talent is not nearly as prodigious, and age is a factor.  Marek Zidlicky, Tomas Kaberle, and Michal Roszival are all over 35, whereas the team left Jakub Kindl from Detroit and Roman Polak from St. Louis off the roster.  I’ll be watching Zbynek Michalek, who has played well in points but has battled injuries.  He will be the main shutdown guy.  In goal, the pickings are incredibly slim.  Ondrej Pavelec might be the worst regular starting goalie in the NHL for Winnipeg (he’s given up the most goals of any goalie in the league this year).  Alexander Salak might be the starter here, as he’s backstopped SKA St. Petersburg very well this year, posting a 1.86 GAA and a .933 save percentage.  It’s hard to believe Michal Neuvirth asn’t chosen for this roster given his semi-strong play for the Caps.

I won’t lie, there looks to be no chance for this team given the talent elsewhere.  The fatal flaw in goal will be a problem and, while they may play some exciting games, the offense will need to score to eliminate goalie problems.  I don’t think it will happen.

Finland

The team that has medaled during three of the last four Olympics is the Finnish team.  That’s sorta tough to fathom, not necessarily because they’re short on talent, but they don’t immediately come to mind alongside Russia, Sweden, Canada, and the Americans.

The team this year looks like a mixed bag overall.  Teemu Selanne will be playing in his sixth Olympics at age 43.  He’s ancient, but is surrounded by other grizzled Finns like Olli Jokinen.  The biggest issue, however, is the loss of both Mikko Koivu and Valtteri Filppula.  That’s the first and second line center gone as of today.  It’s too bad in general, because there is now really an outside chance for a Finnish medal.

Injuries excluded, the biggest issue is the large disparity in talent.  Selanne will be playing on a team with an 18 year old who was born two years after Teemu’s first Olympics.  The stars of yesterday and the stars of tomorrow are both on the team…very few for the present.  On defense, Olli Maata and Sami Vatanen are capable, and Kimmo Timonen has been here before.  He may be the rock solid D-man for Finland in this tourney.

All, however, is not lost.  The Finns have easily the best goalies of all teams, and that’s with their usual starter, Pekka Rinne, down with an injury.  Tuukka Rask has an all-time .930 save percentage in the postseason for Boston, meaning he can play really well under pressure.  Behind him, Antti Niemi has already won a Cup as a starter with Chicago in 2010, and Kari Lehtonen has played well above the average during his career.  The question is if it will be enough to keep the Finns in the picture given today’s injuries.  I bet not.

Russia

Why aren’t they in the contenders section?  Because there’s no telling what this team will do.  Arguably the most talented team for years has not medaled since a silver in 1998, though they’ve sniffed the podium most years since.  This team’s locker room collapse four years ago means the upcoming tourney in front of a home crowd will take on a new meaning for the term “pressure.”

Talent-wise, they are stacked.  Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Pavel Datsyuk, former NHL star Ilya Kovalchuk, and talented youngster Vladimir Tarasenko all dominate the front line.  The team rolls nine deep on forwards with significant NHL work and some serious goal scorers.  It’s possible that reduced minutes might mean certain forwards don’t play as well as we think, but the depth is considerable, even with the strange exclusion of Alexander Semin from the roster.

On defense, the questions are there.  Andrei Markov is older, but brings good leadership for the blue line.  After him, however, the whole thing looks like it comes off the rails.  Slava Voynov has put in a good year for the LA Kings and his improvement will help, but Fedor Tyutin and Nikita Nikitin are not top talents.  Russia may be wishing they had more of that by the end.

But, the four years since Vancouver have seen an emergence of new Russian goalies.  Sergei Bobrovsky won the Vezina last year for the Blue Jackets as the league’s top goalie, and Semyon Varlamov (formerly a Cap) has helped Colorado to a surprising season.  This tandem is loads better than the 2010 grouping of Evgeni Nabokov and Ilya Bryzgalov, both of whom are known for postseason flameouts.

I can’t wait to see these guys, because the home crowd will likely fuel a lot of fire for them.  Plus, the Russians don’t have Canada’s problem of too many talented players, many of whom may have to play reduced roles with which they are unfamiliar.  I expect this team will come down to defense and goaltending, but the Russians look to be in a much better place than previous tournaments.

You Know Us

All the contenders that have been mentioned in the media lately.  Many experts see these three as being your medal winners.

Sweden

Winners of gold in Torino, the Swedes finished fifth in Vancouver, but bring back a potent lineup that has only one player not from the NHL.  Top to bottom, they are very good, but there have been some injury concerns.

Up front, the Swedes will have Henrik Zetterberg from Detroit, Nicklas Backstrom from the Caps, Daniel Sedin from Vancouver, and Alexander Steen from St. Louis.  All top-15 players in the league right now, and the supporting cast is just as good.  Veteran Daniel Alfredsson presents a contrast to Ducks rookie sensation Jakob Silfverberg.  Carl Hagelin brings great speed as well, and Marcus Kruger from the Blackhawks is used to a full workload on a star-studded team.

Unfortunately the forwards could have been better, but Johan Franzen (Detroit) and Henrik Sedin (Vancouver) will not make the trip due to injury.  They are replaced by Gustav Nyquist (Detroit) and Marcus Johansson (Washington).  Nyquist has come on strong as of late, but Johansson might be something of a shade during the tournament, as he doesn’t get many points but is used to playing with top talent.

On defense, Niklas Lidstrom retired, but the squad boasts some serious shutdown guys in Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson, Johnny Oduya, Niklas Hjalmarsson, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.  All NHLes playing on their team’s top tow defensive pairings.  Through in offensively minded Erik Karlsson, and the defense will be just as potent.

Henrik Lundqvist in net is normally a safe bet, but he is in the middle of his worst year yet, with a below-average save percentage.  Behind him, there’s really no one (Jhonas Enroth is the backup to Ryan Miller in Buffalo and could start on most NHL teams, but he isn’t exactly a star).  He must play well for the Swedes to beat the Canadians or the Americans.

I like this team.  More on why later.

Canada

Unbelievable, how talented this team is.  Sidney Crosby, Rick Nash, Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, John Tavares, Martin St. Louis, John Tavares, and Jonathan Toews are all top dogs on their respective teams.  I’m still puzzled by the inclusion of Chris Kunitz (ostensibly he will play alongside Crosby as he does in Pittsburgh) and Patrick Marleau.  Both guys of course have tons of talent, but I wonder if James Neal and Joe Thornton would have been better members of the roster.  That said, Canada has an embarrassment of riches, which may create problems depending on the roles everyone must play.  Yes, it’s all for queen and country, but it’s tough to go from playing 20 minutes per game to seven.

The defense has talent in bunches as well.  Duncan Keith, Alex Pietrangelo, P.K. Subban, and Shea Weber have all been nominees for the Norris Trophy in recent years.  Drew Doughty won a Cup in LA as a top-line D-man, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic has put up great numbers in San Jose.  It will be fun to see who actually gets playing time, as not everyone is guaranteed to do so.  Subban may find himself in street clothes more often than not.  That’s right, last year’s top D-man not even dressing.

Like all teams mentioned, there’s one potential hiccup, which is in the crease for this team.  Carey Price, Roberto Luongo, and Mike Smith are starters in the NHL (Montreal, Vancouver, and Phoenix respectively).  Price arguably has the better top-end game than Luongo, but Luongo actually did the winning of gold in 2010.  I expect coach Mike Babcock will keep a close eye on the goalies, because this team has perhaps the fourth or fifth best goalies in the tournament.  They are solid, but unspectacular.

Canada has a list of almost 15 stars who were not picked for this roster, so there’s good reason to think they have an upper hand going into the tournament.  Still, the goalies will be key.

United States

Finally, we reach our boys.  Team USA may not have many superstars, but there are top scorers.  Patrick Kane (Chicago), Phil Kessel (Toronto), Joe Pavelski (San Jose), and Max Pacioretty (Montreal) all bring great games to the Games.  Throw in Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg) and Zach Parise (Minnesota) and the checking line will feature young goal scorers.  The St. Louis duo of David Backes and T.J. Oshie plays against stiff competition every night, as does Dustin Brown in Los Angeles.  Personally, I like the inclusion of Ryan Callahan from the Rangers, who somehow figures out a way to contribute in all circumstances and has great two-way skills.  I remain a little shocked at the inclusion of Paul Stastny (Colorado) who while great in 2010 seems to have been included based purely on resume and family ties.  Bobby Ryan from Ottawa would have added another goal scorer, albeit one who likely wouldn’t Stastny’s defensive abilities to the table.

How bout defense?  Not too far off Canada.  Ryan Suter in Minnesota is a perennial Norris nominee and Ryan McDonagh makes a living blocking shots for the Rangers.  Kevin Shattenkirk (St. Louis) and John Carlson (Caps) were a little out of left field but they bring puck-moving.  At the bottom, it’s a little rough.  I like putting Pittsburgh partners Paul Martin and Brooks Orpik together, but including young guys Cam Fowler (Anaheim) and Justin Faulk (Carolina) is a little tough to justify, especially with the physical Dustin Byfuglien off the roster.

We all know, however, where the focus is.  Ryan Miller singlehandedly brought the U.S. to the gold medal game in 2010, and the goalies will be looked to for inspiration yet again.  Quick is apparently the darling for many, as he won a Stanley Cup not too long ago, but Miller has had the better season by far behind a terrible Buffalo squad.  I’m still shocked that Ben Bishop from Tampa Bay, with the highest save percentage of regular starters, was left off the roster, but third-string goalies are rarely part of it all anyway.  I like Miller as the starter, and will be upset if Dan Bylsma tries to ride Quick for a while.  This is Miller’s job to lose, and he’s done nothing this year but prove he’s ready for the challenge.

Predictions

I am not running with the North American teams, as they have not done well in Games outside of the home continent.  I realize that isn’t scientific, but we should keep in mind the Olympic rink is 15 feet wider than the standard NHL rink, meaning there is more room for speed to take its toll.  More Europeans play that way as opposed to North Americans, so I’m gonna throw this into the ring:

Gold – Sweden

Silver – Russia

Bronze – United States

Fourth – Canada

 

Might be unpatriotic, and it’s tough to bet against the Canadians to medal, but I actually don’t think they will bring down the house this time.  The Russians will be playing at their top form in front of adoring fans, and I like the goalie situation there a lot.  Sweden, however, brings the ideal mix of goaltending skating talent, with perhaps the best combos on the blue line.  In the third-place game, I’m picking the U.S. to win based solely on patriotism, but it is not inconceivable that the team finishes out of the top four.  The continent has mattered that much in recent years, and I’m not willing to bet against history given the talent pools in Sweden and Russia.

Enjoy all!