2014 U.S. Open

I am presented with no good options this week.  My last soccer preview, written in the heady days of 2012, before the Euro Cup, picked the Netherlands to win.  My last golf posting, on the Masters two months ago, picked Bubba Watson to miss the cut and not be around for the weekend.  Whether a moment of divine retribution, poetic justice, or just stupidity, I couldn’t have been more wrong on either forecast (the Dutch were eliminated in group stages, and Watson won his second Green Jacket).

You may see my conundrum.  The World Cup begins on Thursday in Brazil, a month long period where soccer fully embodies its moniker as the global game.  Simultaneously, golf’s toughest test opens at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina.  Truthfully, I find it hard to decipher which cerebral game I would rather spend a few hours researching.  I have only recently been opened up to the large recesses of soccer, which are tough to penetrate without having familiarity with the game.  (On that note, read the recent Grantland piece on soccer basics for a tutorial on how to watch the World Cup).  Needless to say, the World Cup will dominate my attention over the coming weeks, and I just recently scheduled a meeting so as not to miss Spain-Netherlands this Friday.  That said, you can find wonderful World Cup previews everywhere, so let’s go through the U.S. Open.

Looking back on my Masters preview, I’ll give some similar adjectives to watch for:

1.      Boring – With all due respect to those who have won the U.S. Open, this major lends itself to typically patient golfers who often are not terribly exciting, and neither are their games.  Justin Rose and Webb Simpson, the last two winners, won’t receive many octane points from most fans, but patience is the key to this tournament.

2.      Tough – The U.S. Open is won with an over-par score most of the time.  In 2005 at Pinehurst, Michael Campbell won at +5, a score that normally would mean an early exit home.  Scores like -16 or -12 (Rory and Tiger in 2011 and 2000, respectively) are outliers.  It bears noting Tiger won that year as the only guy under par.

3.      Surprisingly New – One reason this year is tough to predict is very few have played this course in its current form.  In 2011, a group sought to restore Pinehurst to the original Donald Ross design, which means no rough.  Normally, U.S. Open rough could hide a few small animals.  This year, the course will be a little more open, though much of the rough has been replaced with wiregrass, sand, and weeds.  It still pays to hit the fairway. (For hole-by-hole, click here)

4.      Precise – Bogeys are the M.O. at the U.S. Open.  Normally a wayward drive spells doom, but this year the greater challenge will be the short games.  Donald Ross designed this course with severely undulating greens, many of which will be tough to hold with an approach shot.  As such, the short stuff will separate the best from the field, and I’d expect the winner to do very well in chipping and putting this week.

Given all those details, I’m going to go through a few players so you can see what the storylines are this week:

Mickelson:  It all began at Pinehurst in 1999, when Phil finished runner-up to Payne Stewart.  Since then, Phil has finished second at this tournament five more times, and needs it to complete a career Grand Slam.  He’s wily and cagey and you can’t discount him.  That said, Phil has no top 10 finish this year on Tour and has been bedeviled by allegations of insider trading.  There may just be too many distractions, but you can bet Phil has teed off at Pinehurst a few times in 2014 to prepare for this weekend.

Rory McIlroy:  Oddmakers have him as the favorite, and it’s easy to see why.  He ranks first in putts per green-in-regulation and has not shied away from big tournaments.  His win at the BMW PGA Championship in Europe made waves, especially as he did so in the wake of one of the dumbest relationship decisions ever.  He also finished top-10 at the Players last month, so there’s lots of reason to like Rory this week.  That said, can he avoid one bad round that has sunk him in majors past?

Adam Scott:  Scott has never finished in the top 10 at the U.S. Open, but he’s also never brought his current maelstrom of success into the tournament.  Since reaching the top world ranking, Scott won at Colonial and finished tied for fourth at the Memorial. 

Bubba:  There’s a lot of momentum behind Bubba this week, particularly since the course has been lengthened by 400 yards, playing almost perfectly to his power long game.  Watson also has seven top-10 finishes this year and has missed only one cut all season.  What’s also impressive is his short game has improved, as he’s second in putts per green-in-regulation thus far on Tour.  Part of that could be explained by his usual 100 yard approach shot after a mammoth drive, but he’s making the putts and has the temperament to do well here.

Jason Dufner: The PGA Champ last year, Dufner really fits the moment extremely well.  His stats won’t blow anyone away, but he lost the Colonial in a playoff to Adam Scott and has top five finishes at the last two Opens.  Most important, he is always patient and never indulges in destructive mental games. 

Matt Kuchar:  Similar to Dufner, Kuchar’s pensive personality works immensely well for the big moment.  He’s also played well lately, with nine top 10 finishes this year.  That said, we’ve been waiting for Kooch to win one of these things for a while, and I’m starting to lose confidence.

Sergio Garcia: I touted Sergio around Masters time, and I’m gonna keep at it.  Sergio has made seven of eight cuts on the PGA Tour this season, and finished tied for third when the Open last came to Pinehurst.  That’s not the biggest deal for 2014, but given Garcia’s current play he deserves to be listed here as someone to watch.

Hideki Matsuyama: Another guy I touted at the Masters (who fizzled badly), Matsuyama recently won the Memorial in a playoff where he birdied the 18^th hole all four days.  His swing is strange, with a pause at the top that sends me into conniptions, but Matsuyama has quietly made 12 of 15 cuts this year and finished in the top 10 in the Open last year.

Justin Rose: I know, it’s a bit low to mention the defending champ, but Rose hasn’t been on the radar much lately.  He missed the cut at the Memorial, but had three straight top 10s immediately following the Masters.  It also bears repeating that back-to-back champions in this event are almost impossible given the variance and high difficulty.  It’s only been done once, and the champion then admitted he was lucky to do it.

Jordan Spieth: He took over the Masters news, but came up short in the end.  I love Spieth, particularly after his gutty performance on that Sunday afternoon.  That said, Spieth has issues controlling his emotions on the course.  At Augusta, he treated close misses as chili dips, and that kind of attitude likely will be tested at the Open.  I’m personally not sold on Spieth winning this thing (which means he’ll win it), but he may very well be right up there at the end.

Lee Westwood: My annual hope for Lee continues.  His ball-striking is always very good, and he has shown proficiency under U.S. Open conditions, with three top 10s in his last six Open outings.  He’ll be competing at majors for a while longer, but that window looks to be closing.

Henrik Stenson: He’s the second ranked player in the world, but Stenson is still largely riding the torrid wave he set late last season.  He has finished in the top ten in his last two European starts, but he has only one such finish at the Open, way back in 2009.

Dustin Johnson: In 2010, DJ led after 54 holes at Pebble Beach before driving a ball into the ocean and sinking his final round.  While that must be a somewhat tough thing to live with, Johnson’s length will help him with the lack of rough on this course.  He might contend as a result.

Prediction

It looks like rain will be at Pinehurst by Sunday, meaning I bet this thing finishes Monday either due to weather or a tie at the top.  My head certainly tells me Rory, and my heart tells me Phil, but a good prediction should focus on Jason Dufner.  I like him to win this tournament, with Rory and Bubba in the top 10.