I’m on my game this year. One day after the postseason field is filled
I have my predictions going. But, as has
been said by many NFLers, all records are now 0-0 for these twelve teams. In essence, it’s something of a game of
chance, but why not take the time?
Wild
Card
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Last time these divisional foes met, Ben
Roethlisberger threw six touchdowns. Le’Veon
Bell had only 20 yards on the ground, but he wasn’t really needed. Since then, however, Bell has become a
driving force for the Steelers, not just in the rushing game but also in the
receiving aspect (he had 83 receptions this year). His knee injury, suffered last night against
Cincy, is cause for concern if I’m the Steelers. The one saving grace is that the Ravens have
a stout rushing D, and Haloti Ngata returns from suspension to anchor the
defensive line.
This is essentially a toss-up for me, but I’m gonna
run with Pittsburgh. It wouldn’t be
shocking to see this game go to Baltimore, but the Steelers defense has played
better and we’ve seen the offensive explosiveness from Pittsburgh all year
long. Steelers 31-27
Bengals at Colts
It wasn’t that long ago I thought the Colts might
challenge in the AFC. The 11-5 record seems
to bear that out, but since their Week 10 bye Indy has beaten the Jags,
Redskins, Browns, Texans, and Titans.
During that same period, they’ve lost badly to the Pats and the Cowboys. Somehwat absent is the team that started the
season with close games against Denver and Philly. Cincy is also a team without much coming
in. Their win against Denver two weeks
ago was impressive, but does anyone still have any belief Andy Dalton can lead
this team in the playoffs, especially if A.J. Green’s concussion keeps him out
for a while? The two-headed running
attack has been awesome this year, and that will be the key to a Bengals
victory. The Colts might want to learn
about the running game at all, as Trent Richardson’s 519 yards in 15 games isn’t
going to get many defenses quaking.
Like the other wild card game, tough to tell who’s
the better team. I’m tempted to do the
sensible thing and pick against Andy Dalton, but after they beat Denver and
have a formidable running game, how can I?
Bengals 24-21
Cardinals at Panthers
It’s a real shame Carson Palmer isn’t playing. The Cards have gone 3-4 since his injury, and
despite a tough defense they don’t really bring much to the table right
now. Ryan Lindley has not played very
well, so the hope that Drew Stanton comes back as QB is a larger X-factor. Carolina may be 7-8-1, but they’ve rattled
off four straight wins. I should add they’ve
received tons of help from their defense on scoring plays, which can’t be
expected to continue. But to get a home
playoff game? Against the
Cardinals? They’ve shown a lot lately
and while the numbers might not be crazy good, they have played well when
needed. Even if Stanton does come back,
I don’t think the outcome changes.
Carolina is the better team right now and they should win. Panthers
21-10
Lions at Cowboys
Damn those Eagles.
If they had made this more compelling of a playoff race, the Cowboys could
theoretically have been 11-5 and still missed the playoffs. Instead Dallas capped off a remarkable season
and will host a playoff game.
This game seems like an assured Cowboy win. DeMarco Murray has been disgustingly good all
year, and Tony Romo is having by far his best season from a results standpoint. Not to mention the defense has somehow
managed to stay afloat despite a bedraggled roster on paper. Detroit, on the other hand, may have been one
game from the division title, but their lack of a running attack to wear down
the Dallas defense will create the same one-dimensional game we’ve grown to
expect from the Lions. Stafford is
prodigious, and he has Megatron, but they haven’t played better than Tony and
Dez this year. Throw in the running
attack of Dallas, even against the deep Detroit running defense, and I think
this game is a blowout. Cowboys 35-17
Divisional
Round
Bengals at Patriots
Attention has focused perhaps on other AFC teams,
but we shouldn’t lose sight of the Patriots.
They are the class of this conference, and their “resurgence” this
season, after a lot of nay-saying, occurred at home against Cincinnati. Admittedly, the Bengals were not well-versed
in the ways of Jeremy Hill at that time, but the Pats are a top-10 rush defense
this year. In typical New England
fashion, the Patriots have also been a chameleon, finding different ways to
defeat their opponents. Given the
history this year for Cincy in Foxborough, I find it hard to fathom the Bengals
have any legitimate chance to win this game.
Patriots 27-7
Steelers at Broncos
The Broncos have not been as good as expected this
year, especially in the past four weeks or so.
The discovery of C.J. Anderson certainly adds a necessary new component
to the Denver attack, and it’s never a good idea to bet against Peyton
Manning. The key for Pittsburgh will
likely be Antonio Brown’s matchup against Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward, which will
be legendary. Brown needs to have a big
day to beat Denver, and there remains uncertainty as of this writing due to
Bell’s knee injury. I expect this to be
a competitive game, but the Broncos have been able to win multiple different
ways this year, and they are undefeated at home. Broncos
21-14
Panthers at Seahawks
Won’t waste much time here. The Seahawks have the best pass defense in
the league, and since Week 10 they’ve given up an average of 215 total
yards. I should add only twice in that
same span have opposing rushers gone above 75 yards (admittedly, those two
games were big ones by the Chiefs and 49ers).
When putting them against Carolina, which has primarily relied on the
running game this year in some form or fashion, it seems inconceivable that
Seattle loses. Not to mention, Seattle has
a dynamite home-field atmosphere. Seahawks 24-7
Cowboys at Packers
If things work out as I foresee, this will be the
best game of the playoffs prior to the Big One.
I know, Lambeau Field is almost impossible to play in, and it’s
Dallas. But, if there’s a game that
might win in Lambeau, the Cowboys have it.
Their defense, as I said, is better than most and they bring a great
rushing attack. The Pack should hope
Aaron Rodgers brings that pesky calf injury to heel, because if he is knocked
out at all, this team quickly becomes a shell of something great.
Despite what I said about the Dallas run game, I
think we can expect a shootout here. The
Packers score in bunches and they score often, particularly at home, meaning
Romo may need to keep up with Rodgers. I
think he can do it with Dez’s help.
An interesting sidenote: Dallas went undefeated on
the road this year (including at Seattle).
Green Bay didn’t lose at home.
When presented those two streaks, I have to go with the home team,
especially in Green Bay. Packers 42-38
Conference
Championships
Note: Some of you I’m sure will wonder why you’ve
read this far only for me to pick the top two seeds to be there at the end in
each conference. I get that, as I’m
always disappointed when prognosticators do this (Jay Bilas has a terrible
habit of this for March Madness). But,
think back on the season. At various
points, the Patriots and Packers have been discussed as the best teams in
football. The Seahawks seem to have
taken that moniker in the public eye lately, and with good reason. And Denver has Peyton Manning, and a deep
defense that has won lots of games this year.
Like it or not, these four teams have the fewest questions about them of
the twelve. If I had to pick a dark
horse, however, to reach this stage and the Super Bowl, I’d have to go with
Dallas.
Broncos at Patriots
Earlier, I said betting against Peyton is never a
good idea. The caveat is you can when he
plays the Patriots. He’s 5-11 against
New England, and, very significantly, 2-8 in Foxborough. I look back to their meeting this season, in
which Denver was down 20 points at halftime.
Denver fans will say there’s a lot for Peyton to learn from that
performance, and while they are undoubtedly right, his history in that stadium
does not give me any confidence. Patriots 37-24
Packers at Seahawks
The Packers are 22nd in rush defense,
which says a lot for how they stack up against today’s Seahawks (as opposed to
the team they played in Week 1). Rodgers
will have to throw the ball against the best pass defense in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Seattle
struggle to put points on the board, but it looks like too many mountains for
the Pack. Seahawks 20-14
Super
Bowl
Another note: For those of you accusing me of weak-willed
chalking yet again, I remind you the top two seeds met in the Super Bowl last
year as well. Historically it is
unlikely, but there aren’t two better teams than these right now.
Patriots vs. Seahawks
This is the matchup we all want to see right? The mad genius mind of Bill Belichick against
Pete Carrol’s ra-ra in your face pump-up tactics. The one loser in this will be the media, who
will have to listen to Belichick and Marshawn press conferences for two
weeks. The number of unique words used
at those events might be less than 100.
Both teams have been dominant, and this being a
neutral site game will help the Patriots to get away from the terrifying
CenturyLink Field. But, this matchup
looks similar to the Super Bowl last year.
Great offense against great defense, all-time QB leading said offense.
Belichick is perhaps the one guy who might be able
to break Seattle. He has displayed the
tactical ability to change his game to match the opponent, and depending on how
the previous games go, the offense could be really humming. But if Mike McCarthy and Rodgers can’t
succeed one week prior, what will Belichick and Brady do?
I am a member of a school that believes Denver plays
much better last year if they don’t lose the opening snap. I still think they lose, and Seattle has
shown the ability in recent weeks to roll through their opponents behind the
defense and the running game. Faith in
Bill can only go so far…no one has been able to out-execute the Seahawks
defense in the last two months. Seahawks 31-21
Chalk!
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