The Final Say on the Nationals

Three seasons ago, the Capitals lost their first round series to an inferior team after holding a 3-1 series lead.  Then, the Caps boasted the best record in the entire league, and choked away what should have been an early summer for the Montreal Canadiens.

Don’t look now, but the Nationals also choked away a huge lead.  After a poorly played series, the Nats exploded for a 6-0 lead in Game 5 against the Cardinals.  Eighteen Nationals outs later, the Cardinals swarmed the mound celebrating their trip to the NLCS, winners by a score of 9-7.

To be clear, Monday morning quarterbacking always rubs some folks the wrong way.  No one likes it, especially since hindsight is always 20/20, and we just never know what could have happened.  But, since I am about to embark on some serious Monday morning quarterbacking, I feel compelled to give a defense…we will never know with certainty but we can know the odds might have been improved.  In the case of the Nationals, a few people deserve some criticism.

The first is Drew Storen.  Baseball, in this sense, proves excellent for hindsight analysis because each play has a total of one or two moving parts.  While you can blame the offensive line, quarterback, or wide receiver in football, on a pitching error, only one person matters.  And regarding that, Storen choked.  He allowed the leadoff batter to reach first on a double before walking two batters, both of which batted with two strikes.  One walk annoys, but doesn’t change too much.  Two walks move runners over and gifts two runs to the Cardinals in the event of a hit, which David Descalso provided.  Game tied, before Kozma’s single brought in two more runs for the Cardinals.  Storen needed to throw one strike to end the game and, on two separate occasions, couldn’t do it.

More importantly for me, however, Davey Johnson deserves criticism for a few very puzzling decisions.  In a wider sense, his decision to pitch Edwin Jackson at all in this series could not look worse right now.  Jackson pitched to a ERA of seven-plus runs in this series, but he gave up two walks and one run facing only six batters on Friday.  Why isn’t Ross Detwiler pitching in that situation, or Matheus?  Those pitchers did much better in the series overall.

Johnson, however, also lost his focus in the ninth after the Cardinals tied the game.  With Kozma coming up to bat, he let David Descalso steal second on an early Storen pitch.  At that point, a manager needs to look across the diamond to see Jason Motte in the batter’s box.  Motte didn’t bat all year and first base is now open.  The odds of an out increase dramatically by intentionally walking Kozma and pitching to Motte.  Even if the Cardinals sent out a pitch hitter, Motte would be out for the rest of the game, placing inferior pitching on the mound for the bottom of the ninth.  That qualifies as a win-win for Johnson.  Motte might have gotten out a hit, but at least that’s preferable given the options as opposed to rendering his at-bat useless in a 9-7 game.

My last point will sound like unnecessary whining, but I do think fairness dictates a mention of Mike Rizzo.  The Nats GM did not deviate from his Strasburg plan and, in the end, suffered the consequences.  While Strasburg might have come to the mound on Friday and lasted three innings, his performance over the season leads me to expect he would not have surrendered a 6-0 lead.  Again, the reasonable odds increase dramatically for a Nationals win.  Rizzo also contributed to the eventual demise by signing Edwin Jackson.  A column by Mike Wise in the Washington Post back in June describes Scott Boras in effect strong-arming Rizzo into giving Jackson oodles of money “because we have a plan for Stephen Strasburg.”  That insight into Boras, the best agent in sports, says a lot about Rizzo’s mindset before the season.  He knew Strasburg would be shut down, but did not adequately reinforce the starting rotation given the previous knowledge.  What's worse, he took the advice of an agent, hardly an unbiased observer. In that sense, he deserved a loss, as karma certainly looks to have returned with a vengeance.

Regardless, the above criticisms are not excuses.  Any team should win a game with a 6-0 lead, no matter who plays for that team or if they play at the local Little League complex.  But, there are plenty of areas in which the Nationals could have done a lot to increase their odds of eventually winning the game and, therefore, the series.  As it stands, however, my Game 3 ticket amounts to nothing.  Until next season…

Bit #1: Yankees-Tigers proving a lot

I have a sneaking sensation we are learning a lot in the Tigers-Yankess ALCS.  Its outcome, as yet in doubt, could spell the end of the Yankees as we know them.  Right now, A-Rod, Granderson, Swisher, and Cano cannot hit.  Their combined numbers, somewhere in .100 batting average range, almost guarantee the Yankees will look very different next year.  While A-Rod likely will return considering his massive salary, he and Swisher undoubtedly rest on the chopping block.  Throw in Derek Jeter’s broken ankle, and the Yankees might be without some all-time greats on their roster to begin next season (Jeter likely will not retire, but he could).  If the Yanks lose, the team will definitely look different.

Game 2 on Sunday, however, also might be the final straw for instant replay in baseball.  Omar Infante clearly did not beat a throw from right field to second base.  By about two feet, Cano clearly tagged him out, but the umpire called him safe.  The backlash was immediate, as the same umpire crew also made the infield fly call in the NL Wild Card play-in game.  Eventually, MLB will have to stop continuing its self-inflicting wound.  The technology at our disposal would eliminate those mistakes.  Umpires from the same crew are now inserting themselves in games and, while not directly affecting the outcome, certainly raising questions about the respective victories.  It’s time for baseball to go the route taken by many other sports and embrace replay as an enhancing technology, not a limiting one.

Bit #2: NFC East Graves

At some point, fans need to accept a team will always find a way to lose.  The Dallas Cowboys outclassed the Ravens yesterday, but showed the clock-management skills of a debate moderator.  In the last 30 seconds of yesterday’s game, the Cowboys threw a one yard slant route before piddling away much of the clock, leaving Dan Bailey to attempt a very long field goal.  Like the Yankees above, if the Cowboys continue on this track, the team will likely face a makeover.  At the very least, Jerry Jones will need to rebuild his offensive line, as Romo can barely stand up without feeling the pressure.  But, time management ultimately falls to the head coach, and Jason Garrett needs to improve his standing in that regard.  Garrett could have called a timeout, thrown more balls to the outside of the field, or thrown down the middle and spiked the ball.  Either of those options would stop the clock and shorten the field goal.  Garrett needs to know that and understand his job might be on the line.

Another disappointment: the Philadelphia Eagles.  Michael Vick’s well-publicized turnover problems are overshadowing the best defense in the NFL, but the Egales blew a 10-point 4^th quarter lead, punctuated by a horrible sack taken by Vick in the shadow of his own end zone.  The Eagles stand at 3-3, but could easily be 1-5, having only dominated in one performance all season.  Andy Reid typically wins the game immediately after the bye week, so I’d expect the Eagles to win in two weeks, but his tenure will be decided in the next two months.  A playoff berth would mark a great response by a man labeled dead by many in Philly, but given their start the Eagles might finish 8-8 with no real direction.

Either way, these two NFC East teams could be changing in three months, which could open an opportunity for the Redskins to reassert their 1980s play.

Bit #3: NFC clearly outclassing AFC

Should the Denver Broncos beat the Chargers in tonight’s Monday night game, the AFC will have a total of two teams with winning records.  The Raven and Texans both stand at 5-1, but no other team has four wins in the conference.  All four AFC East team boast 3-3 records, with four one-win teams in the AFC.  Compare that with seven winning teams in the NFC and only two one-win teams, one of which in New Orleans doesn’t pass the eye test as a one-win team for long.  What about Jacksonville, Oakland, Cleveland, and Kansas City?  Those teams could have one win for a little while.

On top of records, the NFC best showed remarkable ability this week against the top AFC teams.  The Packers crushed the Texans in Houston while the Ravens struggled to beat the Cowboys at home.  The Seattle Seahawks beat a New Englad team that hummed on all cylinders for most of the afternoon, albeit on a late touchdown.  But, for a team like Seattle to even compete that late in the game raises the same old questions for the Pats.

The point differentials in each conference also amaze.  Ten NFC teams boast a positive point differential compared to seven of the AFC.  The number shouldn’t even be that close, as St. Louis has a -1 differential and Pittsburgh a +1 differential.  For all the supposed good teams in the AFC, the top four teams (Giants, Falcons, Packers, 49ers for my money) all reside in the NFC.