One-Third of the Way

We currently stand a little over one-third of the way through the NFL season.  Since the first week of September, we’ve seen a few surprises and a few disappointments.  The fun thing about writing a blog is, when you predict all divisions before the season, you can track your progress.  So, I’m going to delve into the NFL season in full, noting surprising things, predictions I likely missed, and, ironically, more predictions for the next third of the season.

Parity?

How many of you could have picked that almost half the league is tied for first place in their respective divisions right now?  While many of those exist in the AFC East, the parity at the middle levels of the NFL has truly astounded many observers. 

That’s by record, though, so how much parity can we expect as the season progresses.  Based on a cursory glance of the standings, a few 8-8 playoff teams might be possible.  In the AFC West, for example, any team can beat any other team on a given week.  Or, given the typical New York Giants coma midseason, might the NFC East end without a 10-win team for a second season in a row?

Of course, the status quo isn’t mathematically sustainable, but I’m not entirely sure we will see much separation by record as the season continues.  In six weeks, it wouldn’t shock me to see division leaders in the AFC West with 6-6 records.

MVP Frontrunners

Matt Ryan – I don’t know how you can’t give the award to Matt Ryan should the season end today.  He’s thrown for almost 1,800 yards with 14 touchdowns and leads the attack of the last undefeated NFL team.  Sure, the Falcons likely won’t keep that pace up, but nobody has meant more to their team thus far than Ryan.  He has led game-winning drives with the best of them this year and deserves recognition, but don’t be surprised to see him overtaken if he keeps throwing picks against bad teams like Oakland.

Eli Manning – I know a few Patriots fans who will disagree, but Manning has 11 touchdowns and has beaten quality opponents to this point.  He’s also smart with the ball, taking only four sacks the entire year.  His Total QBR is third in the league, another impressive number with the Giants playing the tough defenses in Philly and San Fran already this year.

Peyton Manning – Denver might be underperforming, but Manning certainly made a good case last week leading the team back to a huge victory.  He’s thrown for the second-most passing yards and is tied for second-most touchdowns thrown.  He also has four TDs on passes longer than 20 yards, a marked ability to change dynamics of a game in a hurry.  And, despite many discussions of his softball throws, he’s only got four INTs.

Honorable Mention – Brady, J.J. Watt, Percy Harvin, Aaron Rodgers, Robert Griffin III, A.J. Green

Offensive Player of the Year

Tom Brady – Tough not to give this award to the guy with the most yards thrown and the most prolific offense in the league.  His three interceptions certainly show he can take care of the ball, and Brady continues to do a lot in planning the Pats offense.  While the team is 3-3, he’s been lights out.

Aaron Rodgers – Tough also to contend with a six touchdown games on Sunday, but Rodgers has not performed that way throughout the entire season.  While I blame the Green Bay offensive line for their inability to protect Rodgers, he can be the most dominating QB in the game when given time.  He leads the league in TD passes and, should the Packers season improve, will be in contention for the MVP as well.

A.J. Green – Has anybody been better than this guy as a receiver?  43 catches for 628 yards and six touchdowns on a team where he represents the only real downfield receiving threat.  Averaging 104 yards per game has really helped Cincy keep some momentum in the tough AFC North.

Arian Foster – He might be averaging only 3.8 yards a carry, but Foster has scored 8 total touchdowns for the Texans and, very importantly, has not lost the ball once.  On a team where the running game is key to success, he has not wilted, running the ball almost 150 times.  While Foster might break down in a few years, he sure has been good while a starter in Houston.

Honorable Mention: Eli Manning, Jamaal Charles, Peyton Manning, Marshawn Lynch, Robert Griffin III

Defensive Player of the Year

J.J. Watt – The dude has been a force thus far and is on pace to have 25 sacks this season, which would shatter the regular season record.  In addition to his 9.5 sacks, Watt also has the ability to disrupt an offense, batting down 8 passes, the most by any defensive lineman in the NFL.

Lance Briggs – Briggs might not be getting to the quarterback as much this season, but he’s returned both of his interceptions for touchdowns, forced a fumble, and has 26 solo tackles.  His timely play certainly elevated the Bears the last two weeks.

DRC – In one of the best secondaries in the league, I have to identify with its best player.  DRC has three interceptions, has deflected 8 passes, and has only 13 solo tackles.  Just so I can add context, those numbers tell me no quarterback is throwing in his direction, as he’s an every down defensive back with a pittance of tackles. (Read as: the true stat on this requires a membership fee I won't pay, so a little speculation is in order)

Honorable Mention – Cortland Finnegan, Clay Matthews, Chris Clemons

Rookies of the Year

Offensive – Robert Griffin III – I want this to be homerism, but RGIII arguably has a shot at the MVP the way he’s been playing.  Only two picks thrown, six rushing touchdowns, and a Total QBR of 74.4 definitely puts him at the head of the rookie class.  His real defining factor remains his legwork, being able to run the ball to give the ‘Skins better field position.  While Andrew Luck might be throwing the rock around, RGIII has his team winning more games and averaging over 25 points per game.  Other contenders right now are Luck and ‘Skins running back Alfred Morris.

Defensive – Chandler Jones – This category is very tough, since many rookies on defense don’t have the chance to make an impact in their first season.  But Jones has certainly done so for the Patriots, already recording five sacks and two forced fumbles.  As of now, he has a lock on this award.

Teams To Doubt

While the league has given us some surprises, some of them shouldn’t be trusted:

Cardinals – These guys have an unreal defense that can light it up when necessary, but their offensive line has given up the most sacks this year by far.  As seen last Thursday night against the Rame, when that kind of pressure comes the lack of quarterback options really hurts this team.  Games against San Francisco, Green Bay, and Atlanta in the next five weeks will determine how good this team is, but all of those juggernauts bring the pressure.  Without good protection, the Cards likely will fade.

Chargers – Hopefully no one trusts San Diego after their collapse on Monday night, but the truth remains that San Diego, for its high-flying start to the season, has not won a meaningful game yet.  Wins over Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City cannot overshadow losses to Atlanta and Denver at home.  For the Chargers, they have a reprieve in their next three games (Cleveland, KC, Tampa) but don’t expect them to finish any higher than 8-8.

Minnesota – I hate doing this, since the Vikings have made it so much fun for Minnesotans this offseason, but the truth is this team runs on its skill players, not Christian Ponder.  His average yards downfield is currently 6.83, the lowest for any quarterback with four wins.  While Percy Harvin might be good, reasonable expectations should see him taper off a little bit as defenses learn how to better defend him.  Many of his yards, and therefore Ponder’s yards, come after the catch.  The running attack will remains stout of course, but in the league today it’s tough to count on Minnesota if they go down two scores.

Teams to Trust

Certain teams aren’t playing well by record, but still deserve your trust in their hour of need.

New England – Shouldn’t come as any surprise, since the 3-3 record of this team does not reflect how good the team is.  Not only does it rank in the top five of both passing and rushing offense, but New England lost three games by a combined four points.  While the secondary needs to improve (28^th in the NFL), that kind of dominating offense will definitely be better than .500.  Fun fact: Brady has a Total QBR of 15 in the final five minutes of a one possession game since 2009, and has only completed 42% of his passes in that span.  But, no need to panic.,.the team is usually up 20.

Denver – The Broncos present an anomaly to me, since they either show up in big ways or don’t seem to be there at all.  But, given Peyton’s play betting money puts the Broncos with a winning record at the end of the season.  As I said above, Peyton belongs in the MVP category for the time being, but the Broncos will need to take advantage of a straightforward schedule for the rest of the year in order to do so.  Still, the only threats on their schedule going forward are Cincinnati on November 4 and Baltimore on December 16.

Now it’s time to assess my predictions ahead of the season to understand how I’ve done.  Mixed bag of course, but, generally, my predictions have not been borne out thus far.

Definitely Right

While the Cardinals won’t go 5-11 like I thought, I pinpointed how bad the O-line would be.  The Cardinals have allowed 28 sacks thus far, halfway to the total from all of last season.  In the end, that kind of performance will doom the Cardinals to a mediocre finish.  In addition, the “necessary offensive balance” definitely hasn’t been there with such an anemic running game.

I went on a limb and said I thought the Bucs, the worst team against the run last year, would improve dramatically this season.  Well, they are currently fourth in the league against the run, so I’ll count that as a “dramatic improvement.”

Unlike many, I did not pick the Chiefs to be near the top of the division by season’s end.  Everyone else seemed to, but I told you all I didn’t trust Matt Cassel at quarterback.  Thankfully, the group lovefest for KC will not go unpunished, as the Chiefs hold a last second victory over another winless team (at the time) and Cassel, upon his return from injury, will have to compete for his job.  So while I might have overestimated the Lions, as seen below, some of the sting wears off when reading my Chiefs prediction again.

Another offensive line prediction turned true: my chief questions centered on the Chargers’ offensive line.  Using 13 different linemen last year did not inspire me with very much confidence coming into 2012, and the Chargers have not disappointed.  Tied for third in sacks allowed, the Chargers wonder why Philip Rivers has such bad days.  He’s under pressure 24/7, with no help coming.

I will say I saw the secondary problems in DC coming.  Too many questions in the defensive backfield restored “false confidence” in me, and the unit has not disappointed.  Giving up 328 passing yards a game, the Redskins force their offense to score in bunches to have any shot at winning games.  While I think the Redskins will do much better than I expected as a whole, the secondary really, really, stinks.

Likely Right

I said in August picking No. 2 in the AFC East would be difficult.  Don’t look now, but all three teams not from New England stand at 3-3 and don’t pass the eye test for one reason or another.  My phrasing in August was “the generally equal nature” of the three teams, and that’s been borne out thus far.  While I’m not necessarily thinking these teams will continue the drudge, they might.

While the Texans are undefeated, in August I said the game against Green Bay would determine the team’s identity.  Well, we may have that answer, as the Packers trounced Houston at home.  The next key game identified is this week’s test against Baltimore.  The Texans are 5-1 and will be around in January, but the schedule right now doesn’t help them down the stretch.  I do think this team will suffer a bit of human losses as the season goes on.

The Bears O-Line continues to stink, as they’ve allowed 14 sacks thus far.  In August I had identified that as the one weakness for the Bears, which became apparent in the discouraging loss to the Packers in Week 2.  Still on the Bears, I thought Cutler and Marshall would “victimize” opposing secondaries.  And, while the Bears passing attack isn’t great, Marshall has 33 receptions for 472 yards, top 10 numbers in the league.  Since Cutler has completed 90 passes, over a third are going to Marshall.  I would say that tandem has shown fire this year.

One of my bolder predictions saw the Browns losing close games.  Thus far, I’ve been mostly right, with the Browns losing four of five by ten points or less.  The Giants beat them by 14, so not too bad but still outside my predicted range.

This one has aspects of both right and wrong in it, but wanting to be positive I will accentuate the positives.  I had many different thoughts about the trenches in the NFC East, and did well to point out the troubles of the Cowboys (two guards ranked towards the bottom of all starters according to profootballfocus.com) and Philadelphia (tied for sixth in sacks allowed).  Demetress Bell, in particular, drew my ridicule and he has not played well by any metric used to modern man.  But, I also picked the Eagles D-line to play very well, and that front seven has achieved seven sacks total (i.e. less than J.J. Watt by himself).  Another of my predictions put the Giants offensive line as one of the worst in the NFL…before they surrendered only four sacks in six games.

Likely Wrong

I don’t know of anyone who thought Ryan Tannehill would lead his team to three wins this season before Week 6.  But, the rookie from Texas A&M currently averages 254 yards per game, a number very surprising given the preponderance for NFL offenses to ease rookies into the league with short passes.  But, Tannehill is throwing for yardage with a JV receiving corps.  He needs to improve on his interceptions (six already compared with two TDs), but overall the kid gets a gold star.

I wrote in August that “the defense of the Buffalo Bills should carry them to a Wild Card berth.”  Needless to say, Buffalo will need a miracle to make the playoffs and it won’t come through their defense, which has given up the most yards in the league.  The front seven I so valued before the season thus far has conceded over 1000 yards of offense, the worst of any team in the league.  This team has almost no playoff hopes by now.

My post in August said the Green Bay offensive line “increased dramatically” with the addition of Jeff Saturday.  Not exactly, as the Packers have given up the second most sacks in the league.  While many of those came against the fearsome Seattle pass rush, a team with Super Bowl aspirations cannot win with such a poor O-line.  As of now, it looks very porous to me.

Definitely Wrong

I didn’t see the Seahawks coming at all.  In fact, I picked them to be 6-10 with a suspended Marshawn Lynch.  The only thing I wrote about the defense said it would keep the team in games, a minor bright spot in a terribly crystal ball episode.  In a bigger misstep, I said the team would be 1-7 before Week 8…they have a 4-2 record now and could make the playoffs…oops.

I was high on the Rams preseason, which has been tempered a little bit.  While my prediction that the O-line would improve has seen some fruit, the line still isn’t terribly good, giving up the third most sacks in the league.  The defense also has been middling, nothing close to the “leaps and bounds” I predicted.  Still, Chris Long and Cortland Finnegan have changed games this year, so there might be some hope.

I gave six wins to the Jaguars…and they might be the worst team in the league right now.  I thought the passing game would really improve based on Gabbert’s preseason performance, but the Jags average 142.8 yards through the air each game and score only 13 points on average.  Justin Blackmon, a guy I thought would “ease the burden on the running game,” has disappeared, with only 13 receptions all year.  Clearly, the Jags won’t do well aerially this year.

Not even a question I misread the Lions.  As the season unfolded, my prediction of the Lions finishing with twelve wins ate at me.  Looking at my other team previews, I clearly saw a young Lions team and got excited for their season, when truthfully the Lions have no offensive direction (I did say the running game had “no direction,” but that doesn’t count when you predict twelve wins for a two-win team).  Also, Calvin Johnson has not played well at all by his standards, and the defensive line ranks 18^th in sacks and 12^th against the run, a far cry from the smash mouth group I saw in August.

I had the Panthers finishing third in the NFC South behind the Saints, but also said Cam Newton would be somewhere near 4000 yards by the end.  As of right now, he will be short of 3800 yards in the same pace, a quick reversal from the breakout season a year ago.  Unfortunately for him, the Panthers have a tough schedule for wins, but playing the bad secondaries in Washington, Tampa Bay, and Oakland might be big games for Newton.

Top Ten

The record parity this season has led to a lot of questions about who are the top 10 teams in the NFL.  Without looking at any other rankings, I’ll give mine below:

1.      New York Giants (4-2)

Big win against San Francisco this past weekend.  Even without Hakeem Nicks, Eli Manning has found ways to find his receivers.  Also, after the dominating performance by the Giants O-Line against the best defense in football, who wants to face these guys?

2.      Atlanta Falcons (6-0)

They might boast the MVP frontrunner, but Atlanta’s undefeated season rests on their ability to win games when needed.  They have struggled against beatable teams, but Matt Ryan always finds a way to win.  Third ranked defense too.

3.      San Francisco 49ers (5-2)

While this team remains hopeless when down by 10 points, the 49ers continued last season’s success with a tough defense.  Offensively, the new additions have yet to truly make an impact, but the game management of Alex Smith combined with a tight defense will keep their games close.  Though, Smith has equaled his INT total from all of last season already, which is an area of concern.

4.      Green Bay Packers (3-3)

The record bother you?  It should, but when Aaron Rodgers throws six touchdowns against a top 5 defense, you know Green Bay can bring it.  The defense has swarmed opposing quarterbacks and has a winnable next three games.  Put some faith in Rodgers.

5.      Houston Texans (5-1)

Tough to give the Texans anything more after the disappointment on Sunday Night Football to Green Bay.  They have played very well this season but faltered against a truly elite team last weekend.  Still, the rushing attack and defense travel well, so the Texans will be a tough out for anyone.

6.      New England Patriots (3-3)

Even after some tough losses, I still think no one wants to play the Patriots.  Brady looks to be firing on all cylinders, Wes Welker has his groove back, and the running game can churn up yardage.  What’s keeping New England back is their pass defense, one of the worst in the league that will likely be their downfall.

7.      Chicago Bears (4-1)

      There should be an asterisk next to this record, since the one loss for the Bears might be

      the poorest offensive showing we’ve seen all year.  But, the Bears have obliterated teams

      since, despite those teams not being terribly good.  The offensive balance plays well, but

      the defense has stolen the show thus far.

8.      Baltimore Ravens (5-1)

This team would be a lot higher without the injuries to Lardarius Webb and Haloti Ngata.  Those two players have taken the reins of this defense from its elder statesmen, and truthfully Joe Flacco is hard to trust when he needs to score points to win.  If he wants to be an elite quarterback, the rest of this season will give him a forum to prove it.  And he’ll need to, because the Ravens have won their last four by a combined 14 points.

9.      Denver Broncos (3-3)

Again, the comeback this past week cemented the dangerous ability of Peyton Manning.  The defense also chipped in big time on that win, but Manning led long drives to the end zone consistently.  Their three losses are to Atlanta, Houston, and New England…all teams above them in my rankings.  Get used to it, since the Broncos will be around at the end.

10.  Seattle Seahawks (4-2)

All my reservations about the Cardinals do not apply to the ‘Hawks.  They’ve shut down the offenses of Green Bay and New England to give the normally anemic offense a chance to win.  The pounding ground game also forces defenses to respect Marshawn Lynch, to the benefit of Russell Wislon.  Tough loss to San Francisco, but the Seahawks D showed up in a big game.

Bit #1: The final end to Lance

The fall from grace for arguably the most impressive American athlete in the last 50 years could not have come faster.  In August, Lance Armstrong lost his seven Tour de France titles amid doping allegations when he decided the fight to clear his name would waste more time than accomplish a meaningful end.  In the last two weeks, evidence poured in, culminating in a final report from USADA about the prevalence of doping in American cycling and, what’s worse, the line of characters who testified against Armstrong.

But, bureaucracy always leaves us to doubts.  There are still those who doubt the Freeh Report on Penn State, mainly because large undertakings by central organizations always leave you with a case of morning mouth.  Well, to my libertarian friends, the free market definitely spoke on Wednesday, as Nike terminated Lance’s contract and forced him to step down as head of the Livestrong Foundation.  Nike cited “insurmountable evidence” and the fact that Armstrong “misled Nike for years” as justifications for their decision.

Of course, anyone convinced of Armstrong’s guilt should agree with this decision.  Nike will continue to support the foundation’s efforts to fight cancer, as it should, but Armstrong will no longer become one of the faces for the athletic retailer.  Keep in mind…Nike does not drop athletes lightly.  Tiger Woods, for all his personal troubles, kept the unquestioned support of Nike.  Joe Paterno did not lose his name on Nike’s Child Development Center at Penn State until eight months after the allegations broke.  The retail giant operates its own set of standards, but the fact Armstrong lost his endorsement so quickly shocks me. 

Overall, we need to move on from Lance and let him jump back into life the only way he can.  His credibility might be shot, but the man deserves some time to himself.

Bit #2: Castillo Firing

On Tuesday, Eagles head coach Andy Reid fired Juan Castillo, the defensive coordinator.  Attentive folks will remember Castillo’s poor performance at the helm of the defense last year, his first after spending years on the offensive side of the ball.  And, last year, the Eagles D looked abysmal to start the season, but rallied to finish on something of a high note at 8-8.  Reid, coaching for his job this year, brought Castillo back, only to fire him leading into their bye week of 2012.

This decision makes about as much sense as Tyler Perry in action movies.  Castillo might not be the best DC in football, but the problems with the Eagles center on the offense.  Philly is 31^st in scoring offense this year (amazingly, the Jags are a full four points on average behind them…a new meaning of the pits) while being 7^th in points against.  In a nutshell, the defense has played its end of the bargain this season and, for my money, has been the most valuable unit for any team in the NFL.

So, why would he fire Castillo?  The only plausible explanation comes down to urgency.  There’s no better way to galvanize players who might be complacent than to fire the guy who seems to be doing his job.  In essence, Reid is putting his cards on the table, saying “no one on this team is invincible and you might be the next guy to get a pink slip.”  While that makes sense, if he wanted to send that kind of message, firing OC Marty Mornhinweg or benching Michael Vick might also do the trick.  But, looking at this objectively, losing the OC or best quarterback on your roster does nothing to help the team win.  The defense in Philly would probably play well if Paris Hilton coached them, meaning Reid took the least important coach and let him go, using scare tactics while arguably maintain the team’s chances to win.  I’m skeptical, but it’s a gamble.

Bit #3: Who to blame for Yankees?

As I said in a post this week, the Yankees bear an undue amount of attention from the sports world.  After that post, Yanks manager Joe Girardi benched A-Rod for Game 3.  Didn’t pinch hit for him, but summarily sat his butt on the pine.  His lineup card for the postponed Game 4 relegated A-Rod’s derriere back to the wooden confines while also sitting down center fielder Curtis Granderson, also immersed in a slump.

With New York swept out of the playoffs.  That’s part of the sports culture now, but this is arguably the easiest search yet.  Four hitters for the Yankees (Rodriguez, Cano, Granderson, Swisher) couldn’t hit a cantaloupe thrown by Cameron Diaz right now.  Manager Joe Girardi, for all of his mild mannerisms, has done his best to put lineups out there that can execute.  And, finally, he looks to be conceding nobody on his team will execute for him.  While the player additions ultimately track up to GM Brian Cashman, these guys played at least decently this season, so their slump should fall on them and not the higher levels of the organization.

Bit #4: More dumb NBA regulations

Of all the professional leagues, the NFL’s proportion of dumb regulations never ceases to amaze.  Everything from proper practice jerseys to sock color show up in NFL regulatory “statutes.”  Keep in mind, these regulations affect gameplay not at all.

Well, the NBA might be moving that way.  A new rule will put a 90 second time on the clock after the national anthem.  At the end of that ninety seconds, you better be ready for tip-off or else suffer a delay of game technical foul (after a warning, of course).  This new measure, born like Athena from the head of David Stern, seeks to start games on time and limit the amount of pregame rituals and handshakes before a game.

Since it’s a business, let’s consider how much money the NBA stands to gain by enacting this measure.  Anyone?  Seriously, just a dollar figure…oh, wait.  The rule will only anger players since if fans are turning the game on at tip-off they clearly expect to watch it.  So…..what’s the point?  I can’t help you there, but silly regulations like this show misplaced priorities at the Association offices in New York.  Rather than discuss the inconsistent foul calls seen every May and June in the playoffs, the NBA brass would rather go after pregame rituals, which serve to excite the fan base at the arena.

Fairly soon, will you only be able to bounce the ball three times on a foul shot?  

Bit #5: Donald Fehr…SHUT UP!

I will do my best to make this as simple as possible…the NHL offered its players a full 50/50 split of revenues this past week in an effort to have a full 2012 season.  Should the agreement be accepted by October 25 and the season begun by November 2, the NHL can still fit all 82 games.

But, NHLPA director Donald Fehr isn’t so convinced.  In a letter to players, he acknowledged the accommodations made by owners but still wants more.  According to him, the plan would result in a $1.6 billion loss in salaries for players.  While we might want to take him at face value, the truth remains that players cannot continue to expect over 55% of the hockey-related revenue if they want a season.  In addition, many players have expressed recently their concern that the NHL might not be stable from a labor perspective.  While that threat of moving abroad sounds overblown, the fact remains players grow frustrated.  Some might leave the league entirely, depriving the union of some of its more talented members.

This is the third lockout in 20 years for the NHL, so Donald Fehr needs to understand putting his players back to work will ultimately boost their happiness and leverage when the next labor dispute rolls around.  A 50/50 split not only looks fair but also represents a world of difference to previous ownership proposals.