What to Remember in 2012

As hangovers wear off and everyone prepares for another week of work around the country, we can fully appreciate the preceding year in sports.  You will hear many “Top Moments of 2012” as the sports world reflects on what has come.  Too many of these shows, however, focus on the champions of the past year, not events that will be remembered for a long time.  In case you didn’t know, LeBron James won his first championship this year as well as a gold medal.  That he would eventually win one looked like a surety, so that won’t crack my list.  I’m here to remind you of the good and the bad from this year, not just the feel-good stories.

Penn State Scandal

Without drudging the sordid details out again, the Freeh Report’s release in the summer initiated more questions about the most iconic football coach to ever live.  That Joe Paterno’s legacy, sullied beyond recognition, received further damnation from Freeh shocked very few.  Penn State alums, angered by the continual revelations of iniquity and questionable assumptions, virulently attacked the Freeh Report, citing its lack of subpoena power and suggesting investigative malfeasance.  As a result, the new Penn State team received an outpouring of support and turned in a great year, which has overshadowed many of the revelations surrounding the program under Joe Paterno.

But it shouldn’t.  Success renders all things irrelevant in college sports, yet 2012 put the nail in the coffin for the legacy of JoePa.  That we will ever look at Penn State the same again looks unlikely.  His sterling graduation rate and conversations about integrity lost all luster when a third party investigator, hired by the Board at Penn State, found wanton disregard by Paterno for the welfare of abused children.  Watching a Penn State game in the next few years will be incomplete without a reference to the disgraced Paterno.  And that’s okay…the sadness surrounding Penn State should serve as a notice to college football programs and athletic departments around the country: sacrifice the treatment of others for success and the NCAA will render your program one-armed for the next decade.

Bounty-gate

This has to make the list for several reasons, the largest of which being the questionable role of the commissioner’s office in league affairs and the endless litigation battles that characterized the dealings.  Throw in the suspension of Sean Payton for the entire year, and some precedents were set that could echo further down the line.

That the NFL found out about the bounties does not surprise any former players…what surprised many who observe the NFL professionally was the harsh punishment levied on the Saints organization.  When the troops fail, the blame falls on the general.  Roger Goodell took that to new heights by suspending players and coaches for long periods, sticking with those suspensions even as some suspended players looked less and less involved in the whole scandal.  As a result, NFL observers and most fans should remember Bounty-gate because it likely redefined the relationship between the commissioner and the players for this CBA.  It would not surprise me to see the players opt out of the CBA down the road in order to prevent this kind of unilateral action by the commissioner.  In a more extreme measure, Roger Goodell could lose his job soon should he try to crack down in such ways again.

Personally, I will remember it for all the unnecessary news coverage the story received, especially as the different rounds of appeals wore on.  I counted three separate appeals filed by the players, asking the suspensions to be overturned, asking Goodell to recuse himself, and requesting a third party mediator.  And during it all we received “Breaking News” alerts about a team that finished with a .500 record and never factored into the season after Week 13.  No offense to those players, but with other teams actually performing on the field, a new Drew Brees sound byte about bounties isn’t going to hold my attention.

Orlando Diva

2012 stretched on for a long time, so long that I forgot all about the Dwight Howard saga last season.  Howard, doing his best pre-pubescent act, moved his way out of Orlando, sinking the tenures of both his GM and his head coach.  There were some awkward moments, like his hug of coach Van Gundy thirty seconds after Van Gundy admitted Howard was looking to exert influence over the hiring of a new coach.  Or how about his admission to RealGM.com that he wanted to stay in Orlando, one day after publicly stating he wanted a change?

So, while 2012 might be the only year we heard of RealGM.com, it also dragged basketball fans through a messy divorce between a superstar and his city.  Any questions as to the NBA being a league driven by stars can be finally put to rest…the dominating questions of the 2012 NBA season centered not on teams but on the ability of players to win or be traded.

Linsantiy

Another entrant from earlier in the NBA year that bears mentioning.  Jeremy Lin stopped the sports world for about two weeks, sparking the then-lowly Knicks on a shocking winning spree.  An undrafted free agent, Lin had bounced around a few teams before hitting it big in the Mike D’Antoni system employed in New York.  Along the way, he galvanized a huge worldwide audience being an Asian-American from Harvard who could not only play basketball, but play really well.

What’s most amazing about Linsanity to me is that it ever happened.  Stories like that, where one man takes over the spotlight for a full two weeks, are rare enough.  That the man in question here couch-surfed his way around New York City and had no realistic chance to reach great heights coming out of college makes the whole thing that much better.  Credit Jeremy Lin for his hard work and maybe a bit of luck, but the sports world also deserves credit for appreciating the unique nature of his story and giving it extensive coverage.  In a year marred by revelations of wrongdoing and other dramatics, Lin provided a welcome sight for 2012.

Lance Armstrong Finally Discovered

We had heard the stories and accusations for years.  Lance Armstrong denied them.  Well, 2012 renders his recalcitrance and evasion towards tough questions unnecessary…he won’t have to deny them anymore.

The release of reports this year from the worldwide cycling federations (names escape me right now) not only condemn Armstrong’s legacy but also any sense that he told the truth over the last dozen years.  His Tour de France titles are now gone, fully vacated as cycling tries to overcome the sickness that permeated the sport during the 2000s.  For a man once hailed as the greatest American athlete of his generation, the fall could not have been steeper.  If there was ever any question about Lance, that has been answered in 2012.

Other Notes

The U.S. won 106 medals at the London Olympics…Lionel Messi broke the calendar year scoring record in 2012, cementing his status as one of the greatest ever…European soccer had to confront persistent racism on the parts of fans and players during matches…Rookie quarterbacks made a bigger impact on the 2012 football season than any other preceding season…and, every man realized Jennifer Lawrence isn’t just good-looking, but a fantastic actress as well.

Bit #1: Consider the teams in the NFL playoffs

If you were looking for qualitative reasoning to show the NFL’s cash-cow tendencies, consider who’s in the playoffs.  Five teams (Bengals, Colts, Vikings, Ravens, and Packers) come from very small markets.  The Vikings can’t throw the ball.  Three teams have rookie quarterbacks, while two others will trot out second-year starters.  The Texans piddled away a large gap in the AFC, losing not just home-filed but a bye as well.  The traditional nationwide favorites, Dallas and Pittsburgh, won’t play this year.  Tim Tebow’s not in the postseason.  The high-flying Saints, a team that dominated offseason attention, never looked to be part of the festivities after a middling regular season…in short, the crop of playoff teams doesn’t look too exceptional.  Sure, greats Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are in it, with Aaron Rodgers on the NFC side, but everyone else boasts either an unproven or boring quarterback.  The best team in the NFC, Atlanta, scares no one due to their poor playoff history.

It is a fun thought to consider how the NBA might do with this kind of playoff landscape.  The biggest NBA market in this scenario would be the Boston area…no Los Angeles, no Miami.  A quick transliteration of NBA franchises by markets represented in the NFL playoffs (bear with me here), would put the T-Wolves, Warriors, Pacers, Wizards, Bucks, Hawks, and Warriors in the postseason.  Hardly a fearsome media force.

And yet, people cannot wait for the start of these NFL playoffs.  Many are talking about how each team could win it all this year, an aberration in many sports leagues except baseball.  And, even then, who knew the Cincinnati Reds were in the playoffs this past year except those living in Ohio?  We’re seeing the pre-eminence of the NFL making waves, putting out a motley crew of teams for its postseason, and still raking in all the attention sports has to offer.

Bit #2: National Championship Thoughts and Predictions

We’re within a week of Notre Dame-Alabama, a game pitting two of the most unlikable programs of the last 50 years.  And also two of the best.  Alabama has 8 national championships since 1950…Notre Dame has 7.  That’s one and two on the list in that frame of time, so the game will certainly bring back a feel of tradition.

Many are anointing Alabama already.  They might not be doing that in public, but SEC bias will likely skew the thoughts of fans towards Alabama, the defending national champion.  And I can’t blame them.  Alabama boasts the best offensive line in the country, meaning the vaunted Notre Dame defense will have a tough time stopping the run.  They’ve been great all year at run defense, but remember Pitt’s Ray Graham and Stanford’s Stepfon Taylor torched the Irish defense in those games.  Watching Stanford win yesterday behind Taylor reiterates that Alabama, despite prognostications to the contrary, will likely run the ball effectively.  And, if you need a throw made, A.J. McCarron can make most of them out there.

But, I’m picking Notre Dame…for almost no reason at all.  I believe in the numbers, which tell me Alabama has this game in the bag, but after seeing the Irish beat huge opponents on the road this season and seeing Alabama win their three most meaningful games be seven points or less, I’m picking the Irish to win. When the World Series rolled around, I spurned the Giants, picking the better team on paper.  Four games later, I rued that decision, so I’m going to be a little adventurous.  No team has played a tough schedule like the Irish this year, and no team has brought itself to win every game, including ones against very tough opponents on the road.  Notre Dame by 3.

Bit #3: NFL Playoffs

This week provides four games to us.  One of them (Bengals-Texans) holds interest only for its high ugly potential.  Both teams have the propensity to disappear on offense, meaning the rematch of last year’s ugliest playoff game might be even uglier.  For Colts-Ravens (or the Irsay Bowl as I’d like to call it), the hot young quarterback comes into arguably the toughest place to play in the conference.  On the NFC side, Packers-Vikings will likely be a third installment of two great games from December.  The Vikings have proven they match up well with Green Bay, so we might see a powerhouse go down early.  For the Redskins-Seahawks game, I will be turning my phone off to watch two grinding offenses led by rookie quarterbacks compete.  That Seattle will need to make the trip to the East Coast makes the matchup very appealing for DC fans, but we’ve seen the Seahawks too much this past decade in the postseason to trust our team.

Of the four, I’m picking Cincinnati, Ravens, Packers, and Redskins.  While I like Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson, I don’t see their teams winning on the road like that.  The Ravens are 17-1 in their last 18 home games against non-divisional opponents.  The Indy defensive line also has not created much pressure this year, while the offensive line of the Colts can barely protect the huge investment under center.  For the Seahawks, my homerism explains my pick.  I would not be shocked at all to see Seattle win the game, but the Skins don’t turn the ball over, which marginalizes the opportunism of corners Browner and Sherman.  Should the offensive line need to start Josh LeRibeus, however, I can see the Redskins struggling to contain the pass rush of Seattle.

In the other two games, I follow my gut.  I don’t see Aaron Rodgers losing again to the Vikings at home.  With Minnesota fresh in their minds from last week, the Packers can take solace knowing they almost pulled a victory out.  If Rodgers can get some time back there behind his line, the Packers can ride him to a close victory.  For the Bengals, they need to keep the ball in their hands.  Dalton has made mistakes in big moments over his career, but if he can hold onto the ball and score, the pass defense of the Bengals should be able to do the rest.  Geno Atkins wreaks havoc on offensive backfields this season, so the running game of Arian Foster will find it difficult to gain headway.

Bit #4: Early Super Bowl Pick, for what it’s worth

If the Wild Card games go my way, the matchups would be as follows:

Cincinnati at Denver

Ravens at Patriots

Redskins at Falcons

Packers at 49ers

For the first game, Cincy has no chance to beat Denver, the most complete team of all twelve in the playoffs right now.  Cincinnati struggles to outscore everyone, so outscoring the prolific Denver offense seems a tall order to me.  The other AFC matchup provides some intriguing situations, as the Ravens possess the physicality to pound New England if Ray Rice receives a large workload, which isn’t a surety.  I’m picking the Patriots in a close game, setting up the dream Manning-Brady AFC Championship.

For the NFC, my spirit will be riding high but I can’t pick the Skins over the Falcons in Georgia.  The flaw for Washington rests in the secondary, and Matt Ryan has proven when he’s on that secondaries should fear him.  Michael Turner, a hard-working back, will also provide balance even if he doesn’t eat up too many yards on the ground.  For the Packers-49ers, the game depends on Justin Smith’s health.  Since his injury, Aldon Smith has not recorded a sack, as teams double-team him on the edge.  If he’s healthy, the 49ers can and should win this game.  But if he’s not, I’m picking the Packers.  Green Bay has the offensive weapons to attack the San Fran defense just as the Patriots did a few weeks ago.  The 49ers will need a great effort from its offense (like Vernon Davis against New Orleans last year) to win without a defensive stalwart.  I’m assuming he will barely play, if he does at all, meaning the Packers will win.

So, to recap:

Patriots at Broncos

Packers at Falcons

For the AFC Championship, the weather will likely be very rough.  That stands to favor Tom Brady, a cold-weather QB with a track record of winning AFC Championships in the snow (by luck, depending on who you ask).  But, the weather also favors the running games and defenses.  In those variables, the overall edge goes to Denver, mainly due to their formidable pass rush.  The game likely will be a slushy mix of shootout and slugfest, but I don’t see how Denver doesn’t make the Super Bowl the way they have played.

In the NFC, I don’t really like this pick.  I have a feeling not picking Seattle to win in the first round will have an effect on my accuracy here, but I do see the Packers competing in this game.  The pass rush of Atlanta will be crippled if John Abraham misses any significant time with his injury, which favors the ability of Aaron Rodgers to release the ball quickly and on time.  In five games indoors this year, Rodgers averaged 303 yards, threw 18 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.  He’s not a bad bet inside, but neither is Matt Ryan.  His home stats, however, are not nearly as good (269 avg. yards, 11 touchdowns, 9 interceptions).  I remain torn between these two teams, but I have to pick the Packers.  They have proven an ability to win in Atlanta (playoffs two seasons ago) and, if they can get past the stingy Minnesota defense, should not have any problems reaching this game.  Imagine if Seattle somehow beats both the Skins and Falcons to meet Green Bay in the NFC Championship…the reel of the Fail Mary will be imprinted in your mind come kick-off.

This leaves us with Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans:

Broncos vs. Packers

I’m going with Denver here, for all the reasons I’ve said earlier.  The pass rush, dynamic as it is, will run circles around the Green Bay offensive line.  I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to lead the team to points, but without any kind of balanced running attack the Packers will struggle to beat the Denver defense.  This makes it so much better for Peyton Manning, winning his second Super Bowl one year after neck surgery.