End of an Era on Saturday

Both my Super Bowl teams lost on Saturday, proving yet again my inability to predict anything of value this season (I picked Notre Dame, for crying out loud…and I’m still crying).  For the Packers, their inability to contain Colin Kaepernick doomed any chance they had to win this game.  No adjustments were made in the second half that looked to keep him in the pocket, and Packer defensive ends fell for the read option too many times.  In that game, the better team clearly won.

Not so in the Broncos-Ravens tilt earlier that day, one of the better playoff games you will see.  In that game, the better team looked to have the contest wrapped up before a deficit of common sense permeated the Denver sideline.

For one, I still can’t believe Broncos safety Rahim Moore misjudged the pass by Flacco.  We aren’t talking about a deep post route or a double move…Jones ran a streak down the sideline, which in layman’s terms means “Run and I’ll find you open.”  The soft prevent scheme ideally prevents such plays from happening as defensive backs keep everything in front of them.  Moore missed that message, and the team likely lost because of it.

But, of greater importance to me was the timidity of Peyton Manning in the fourth quarter.  On a 3^rd and 7 with two minutes left, Manning audibled to a run play.  Any passing play could have given Denver a first down and a berth in the AFC Championship (Baltimore was out of timeouts).  Sure, the Broncos shaved 45 seconds off the clock, but with an all-time great at quarterback, the ball should be hurled in that situation.  Burying the Ravens right then and there would leave a vastly different storyline for us to consider.  But the offensive play calling madness didn’t stop here…

After the Ravens scored and the Broncos had the ball at their own 20, Manning took a knee to play for overtime with 31 seconds on the game clock and two timeouts left.  Yes, an all-time great quarterback took a knee rather than lead what has been a prolific offense down the field.  With the air in Denver, Manning needed about 40 yards to be in makeable field goal range for Matt Prater.  Instead of slinging it and using timeouts to dice up the remaining time properly, Manning kneeled down and wound up losing the game later.  To add insult to injury, the Falcons won their game yesterday after a quick drive that began on their own 20 with, you guessed it, 31 seconds left.

While Broncos fans deserve sympathy, all football fans should acknowledge that we might have seen the last chance for Peyton evaporate on Saturday afternoon.  At age 36 he doesn’t have much time left anyway, but he will go nowhere should he continue the tactics put on display against Baltimore.  Those who want to blame John Fox don’t understand that Manning effectively makes all offensive decisions himself, laying blame squarely at his feet.  At a time when a killer instinct was needed, he refused.  Twice.  Do we think Tom Brady would have done that?  I’d bet not.

And, regrettably, Manning’s legacy will be defined by those comparisons.  I find it hard to fathom Brady checking down to a running play when he could clinch a championship game berth with a 10 yard pitch-and-catch.  Or wilting with 31 seconds left on the clock.  Definitely not doing both in the same game.  In the past, I’ve defended Manning as being better the Brady and while their physical talents might be similar, their legacies will be vastly different.  This weekend marks the 8^th time in 11 appearances that Manning has lost his first playoff game in a postseason.  His lone Super Bowl win was seven years ago, almost an eternity in sports.  Compare that to the Brady postseason stats, and the difference could not be starker.

But the eye test and not stats also deserves some lip service, and in that department Manning failed on Saturday.  His fumble (which Dan Dierdorf idiotically maintained was not a fumble during the broadcast) looked more like a bad grip on the ball than anything else.  He threw two interceptions as well.  But, when the time came for the team to rely on his arm, Manning demurred, deciding to play for overtime or give the onus back to a defense that proved unable to stop Baltimore the entire game.  And continued to prove it. 

When a great player shies away from the big moment, we have to wonder if we will ever see that old aggressiveness.  Manning’s Broncos went 13-3 this past year, dominating their competition for 11 straight games.  Manning clearly still knows how to play well, and likely will do so again next season.  But watching him take the ball out of his hands tells me he has little confidence in his abilities right now.  Either that, or he psyched himself into believing he didn’t need to leave an imprint on Saturday’s game, that it would all be taken care of by someone else.  If he doesn’t change that attitude, Manning’s physical decline will spur a reduction in his will and ability to win when it matters most.  Only time will tell, but the era of Peyton’s dominance clearly has almost faded to nothingness.

Bit #1: Early Signs Point to Patriots-49ers

Looking at the matchups for the championship games right now, I find it tough not to pick Patriots-49ers for the Super Bowl.  Yeah, I know, by now you have no business trusting me on these things, so I’ll give some things to watch for each game.

In the AFC, the balanced offense of New England with Ridley and Vereen rushing will require a different approach for the Ravens.  They possess the mountain named Haloti Ngata as a good run-stopper, but neither the Colts nor Broncos brought that kind of ground game during the previous playoff games.  On the flip side, the Patriots will need to find ways to diminish the vertical passing ability of Joe Flacco, who used play-action and his arm strength to perfection this past weekend.  Last year, the Pats escaped after a dropped pass and missed chip shot by the Ravens.  Should they come out flat like that again, New England could be in trouble.  I am not convinced losing Gronkowski will be a big deal for this team.  Unlike last year, they’ve played without him for several weeks and are doing just fine.  The offense has not run through Gronk for a while, so it shouldn’t be much of a dent in their preparation or execution.

In the NFC, the burden rests on the Falcons defense.  After Colin Kaepernick torched Green Bay for all those yards on Saturday, Atlanta will need to be better prepared for his explosiveness.  I’m also wondering how they plan to cover Michael Crabtree, who caught two touchdown passes against the Pack and has been the favorite target for young Colin.  Home-field will help, but the Falcons need something to break their way.  Throw in the tough Niner defense and this game might get ugly in a hurry.  And yet, I expect Matt Ryan to find ways to creatively spread the defense out.  The corners for San Francisco have not played as well this season as they did in 2011, so single coverage on the speedy Roddy White and Julio Jones could be exploited.

I’m calling Niners-Patriots.

Bit #2: Who cares about what Lance has to say?

Not only is Lance Armstrong a cheat, but he’s a gutless cheat.

I could quote lines from The Sting all day long, but nothing like Doyle Lannigan’s straight-faced one-liner to Henry Gondorff encapsulates how I feel about Lance Armstrong.  We all remember the doping reports incriminating him.  But how many of us remember the bevy on lawsuits Armstrong brought to bear on global publications?  He sued over ten people or organizations for printing claims about his drug use, winning many of them and reaping millions in settlements.  That a man would have the audacity to not just deny true accusations but also sue to profit from them strikes me as gutless.

Also cowardly, however, is his decision to tell his story to only Oprah, a media icon more concerned with her book club than the world of sports.  That’s not to diminish her success, but if Armstrong really wanted to face the music he’d go on a sports show or sit down with a sports journalist who would ask him the hard questions.  Hell, 60 Minutes would do the exact same thing.  Oprah likely will express empathy with Armstrong’s struggles, past and present, refusing to excoriate a man of such high profile on her show.  But this man deserves to be roasted and discredited, he needs a sheaf of court documents thrown at him.  He lied, cheated, and stole.  That trifecta should not find solace on a daytime talk show.