While the NFL considers ridiculous rules on
touchdown celebrations (another topic for next time and deserving of my
righteous indignation), I’m gonna go through the NFC.
NFC
South
1.
Falcons
(11-5)
2.
Bucs
(9-7)
3.
Saints
(8-8)
4.
Panthers
(8-8)
Weird
Looking right?
Yeah, the prediction looks a little funky. It doesn’t usually happen that three teams
from one division end up on the fringe of playoff contention, but I’ll explain
the logic a little bit. In short,
Atlanta has too much and not a whole ton of weaknesses. The Saints have a porous defense, we don’t
know about Josh Freeman in Tampa, and Carolina might need Mushin Muhammad back
at receiver just to add a warm body.
Both the Falcons and Saints also have really tough schedules (Atlanta is
15th, New Orleans is 5th), so I expect win totals to be
deflated. But, if either team can get
through, they might have good luck in the postseason.
I see Tampa as surprising everyone this year. Their biggest weakness, pass defense, looks
to be remedied through Darrelle Revis and Dashon Goldson. Those two will anchor a secondary to
hopefully new heights. For the Panthers,
the wide receiver corps is spaghetti thin.
Steve Smith continues to draw double coverage and play well, but Brandon
LaFell isn’t the guy I’d bank my hopes on in a passing situation. They could easily be 7-9 this year.
Cam’s
Jam:
Cam Newton is the best playmaker in this division and if he can resurrect his
running game, the Panthers will be a dangerous team to play. Newton must share a backfield with DeAngelo
Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but given their injury history he will likely
not be doing any appreciable sharing. I
think he is the X-factor for the whole division, especially if he can figure
out a way to involve pieces like tight end Greg Olsen. I tend to think he won’t deliver, but if he
does, Cam leads this team to second place while playing the toughest schedule
in the league.
How
can you do that to Drew Brees? Well, once I found out he stiffs waitresses
for tips, I felt less bad about this.
The Saints D, though, erases all the benefits of Brees. That unit gave up over 7000 yard last year
(440 a game for you math kids). That’s
the most amount of yards ever allowed by a defense. Their new coordinator, a homeless DC Metrorail
hoodlum named Rob Ryan, will bring a new scheme to town that has very little
chance of working in the first year.
Kenny Vacarro was a great draft pick at safety, but nothing was done to
beef up the front seven. Bress’ numbers
will still be gaudy, but don’t expect him to override defensive problems.
2013
is the year:
We will know about Josh Freeman by the end of this year. He may have the most riding on this season,
as he will likely be reverted to Patrick Ramsey status if the Bucs fail this
year. As you can see, I don’t think they
will.
Pretty
good division: Every pick on here has these teams
winning more than Vegas predicts. Might
not be a bad way to make some cash.
NFC
North
1.
Packers
(12-4)
2.
Bears
(8-8)
3.
Lions
(7-9)
4.
Vikings
(6-10)
What
about last year?
So one thing I realized…this division had three teams above .500 last
season, all of whom reached double digit wins.
So while I gave my NFC North picks last year a hard time, I did see this
division as being something of a power.
This year, I have very little faith in it. The Packers are self-explanatory, as Aaron
Rodgers remains the best player in the game offensively. But, his success will be tempered by
questions surrounding the defense, which seemed unable to make big stops last year. If this team ends up with four losses, they
will still be somewhat soft. I don’t
know about a deep run, but never count out the Cheese.
The other three teams are tough to predict. The Bears have the talent to really make
offense happen, especially with Marc Trestman now at the helm. Brandon Marshall likely won’t be targeted 40%
of the time this year as he was last year, so there will be a new look
definitely. Still, I trust CFL coaches
less than I trust Canadians, so I expect there to be some growing pains in Year
1.
The Lions don’t have the roster of a 7-9 team, but
there are some questions. My biggest is
they replaced three starters on the offensive line. Another problem is Matt Stafford has no one
else to throw to other than Calvin Johnson.
Additionally, when the Lions aren’t losing close games they are being
arrested, so discipline might be a point of concern. Plus, Jim Schwartz likely costs this team at
least one game with a stupid clock management decision.
Lastly, the Vikes may have the best back in football,
but they create almost no offense otherwise.
Greg Jennings adds a lot at receiver, as does Cordarrelle Patterson, but
as long as Christian Ponder throws this team will not be able to stand the
heat. On D, Antoine Winfield was a huge
loss for pass coverage, but Xavier Rhodes may contribute as a rookie. Still, too many holes.
Schedules
matter: The Packers,
Vikings, and Lions all have top-10 tough schedules this season. I see that adversely affecting both Minnesota
and Detroit especially. Both teams need
a little help and have gotten no favors from the NFL on this.
Can
Trestman succeed?
My answer is not this year, but new GM Phil Emery should give fans some
confidence. He solidified the offensive
line dramatically by adding three pieces, the biggest of which being Jermon
Bushrod. He also has a better chance to
do well through the stingy defense Chicago will likely field. That unit won them a few games last year, and
the loss of Brian Urlacher is a blessing.
D.J. Williams joins via free agency as does Jon Bostic through the draft
so Lance Briggs will have deep company.
The Trestman theatrics might have a chance with that D, so maybe
postseason for this team.
David
Akers still plays? He does, for the Lions. Losing all-time Lion Jason Hanson meant the
kicking game looked to be in flux.
Adding Akers, a lefty with a poor record of kicking under pressure, sounds
like something of a reach. If the
offense hums pretty well, Akers may need to make a few long ones. Can his leg handle it?
NFC
West
1.
49ers
(13-3)
2.
Seahawks
(11-5)
3.
Rams
(8-8)
4.
Cardinals
(5-11)
Best
Division in Football?
Remember a few years ago when the 7-9 Seahawks won the NFC West and
received a home field postseason game?
People began calling for a change to the playoff seeding formula, only
to feel stupid right about last October.
Two of the conference’s top three teams are in this division. Both San Fran and Seattle not only played
great last season, but worked through the offseason to improve their respective
rosters.
For the Rams, I see them being like the Bucs. It all will come down to Sam Bradford. The draft pick of Tavon Austin makes up for
losing Danny Amendola on the outside, but Chris Givens and Brandon Gibson need
to produce more for the offense to really hum.
Not to mention, the Rams replace their best player from last year. Steven Jackson being gone opens up some small
concern at running back, but Daryl Richardson may be capable. Arizona has a new head coach in Bruce Arians
who has done wonders with Andrew Luck last year and Ben Roethlisberger the
years before that. If Carson Palmer has
the willingness to be retaught a little, he may improve dramatically.
Great
defenses all around: The hallmark of this division will be
stingy defense. The Niners have a
fantastic front seven, using Justin Smith as a run stopping machine who
consistently eats two blockers. The
secondary might be in flux a little bit, but they may have three Pro-Bowl
linebackers at the end of the year between Bowman, Aldon Smith, and
Willis. Everyone heard about the
Seahawks last year, and their secondary returns with the same pieces plus
tackling extraordinaire Antoine Winfield.
Bruce Irvin’s suspension puts new arrival Cliff Avril in the spotlight,
but he has played so well in Detroit that he shouldn’t miss a beat.
The Rams have one of those defenses that is full of
high draft picks, and you think it has to really pay dividends soon under
success freak Jeff Fisher. Chris Long,
Robert Quinn, Michael Brockers, James Laurinaitis, and Janoris Jenkins are all
first round picks. William Hayes
surprised with seven sacks from the DT position, and he returns this year. In Phoenix, the loss of Daryl Washington due
to a four game suspension hurts, but Darnell Docket and Calais Campbell still
bring a huge presence to the defensive line.
Don’t forget, that team started 3-0 last year mainly due to defense.
Why
not Seattle? Look at lots of predictions, and about
half show Seattle winning this division.
Lots of people look at Marshawn Lynch creating opportunities for Russell
Wilson to shine. Play-action passes
likely will be rampant throughout the Seattle offensive scheme, and for good
reason. People are smart to pick
Seattle, but I won’t because I’m not entirely sure Russell Wilson will maintain
such a high level of performance. He
remains fairly long and despite the coverage afforded by the running game (and
his own legs for that matter), Wilson remains a sophomore. I think a mini-slump is not out of the
question, especially when compared to the explosiveness that Colin Kaepernick
brings in SFO. The two QBs have a chance
to dominate the league for a bit, so don’t worry about Seattle in the
future. But, I think Kaepernick keeps
the crown.
Receivers
Optional: I am always amazed when teams that don’t field
great receivers succeed. We would think
that the game requires not just good receivers, but speedsters that can break
open the field. Well Seattle didn’t have
a 1000 yard receiver last year, and after Michael Crabtree (1105 yards) the
Niners threw more to Vernon Davis (548 yards).
This is more of a committee approach.
And, both teams bring tight ends into play that can take the heat off a
quarterback. Davis in San Fran and Zach
Miller in Seattle will benefit greatly on play-action passes, meaning we could
see some valuable TEs out West.
Can
Bradford do it? Fair question. The last of the rookie mega contracts,
Bradford presents a very interesting conundrum.
He hasn’t been great according to many, but last year was his best
statistical season. The issue is it was
his third starting season, and the previous year he was 1-9 as a starter. Eeek.
As I said, he needs to have more guys open this year to do well. Bradford may be another Josh Freeman in the
making, but thankfully expectations remains somewhat low for him right now.
One
Team I Didn’t discuss much?
The Cardinals. Why? Because they’re boring and very unlikely to
compete. The addition of Tyrann Mathieu
adds media fodder, but otherwise the Cards will be looking to adjust to life
under Bruce. The signing of Rashard
Mendenhall continues an Arizona tradition of hiring veteran running backs that
were great but now can’t seem to stay out of their own way. He will start and could see a resurgence, but
I’m not really putting too much on that.
NFC
East
1.
Cowboys
(9-7)
2.
Giants
(9-7)
3.
Redskins
(8-8)
4.
Eagles
(6-10)
I
hate this pick: Thus far, I’ve been pretty good about
not pumping up teams too much. My
predictions, while full of much thought, aren’t too surprising. Whether you think predicting a Cowboys divisional
crown is ambitious…that remains up to you.
I don’t like doing it, as nothing would hurt me greater than seeing the
Blue Star in the playoffs.
But, objectively, the Cowboys have the fewest number
of questions. They have two, one glaring
and one possibly simple. The first is
how they adjust to the Tampa 2. Monte
Kiffin, the architect of this 4-3 system, brings a vastly different feel than
last year’s coordinator Rob Ryan. And I
don’t mean the feel of a balding head.
He will put linebackers DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer down on the
line, allowing them to leverage their prodigious pass rushing skills without
worrying about pass coverage. For Ware,
a 4-3 end in college, there may be some adjustment, but I wouldn’t bet against
him playing well. Otherwise, the
defensive personnel are stout enough to perform.
The other question in Dallas is one we’ve all heard
for years: can Tony Romo play up to the level people expect. I certainly will say Jerry paid him way too
much money this offseason, but Romo almost threw for 5000 yards last year with
a 65% completion rate. If he can
decrease the 19 picks he also threw, the Boys will be in business, even with a
potentially nonchalant running game.
The
Giants and Nine Wins: For whatever reason, the Giants seem
locked on nine wins. They’ve won nine
both of the last two seasons, so I’d put them up here again for nine wins and
making the playoffs in the sixth spot.
We are all waiting to see how draft pick Justin Pugh contributes to the
O-line that didn’t do very well last year.
Another concern is the running game.
With Ahmad Bradshaw gone the Giants are all-in on David Wilson, placing
a lot of pressure on him to perform. The
other real concern on offense should be the health of receivers. Hakeem Nicks has not fared well in the
medical world these past two years, and with Martellus Bennett gone as tight
end Big Blue needs some extra help for Victor Cruz.
On defense, the Giants look to be fine, but no
better than fine. If Justin Tuck can
return to anything resembling form, the defense can mix and match much easier
on the D-Line. There is a legitimate
question as to who fills the shoes of Kenny Phillips at safety, which will
contribute to an up and down season.
Will
the high-flying stuff work out? Chip Kelly has a
chance to bring a truly unique offense to the NFL. Michael Vick remains a huge risk, even more
so if the offensive line struggles to protect him again. But, given what we know of Kelly’s Oregon
days, Vick’s running ability will be prized.
The bigger concern will be the blocking and how the line adjusts to
blocking not only for Vick but also for LeSean McCoy. People love to point out how badly college
coaches have done in recent NFL seasons, but no one has brought as much
potential as Kelly. His offense thus far
has not been anything close to pro-style, so we’ll see how this goes.
I think a six win season would be good for the
franchise. On defense, the Eagles switch
to a 3-4 that will increase commotion on the front lines. Cary Williams played
well for the Ravens last year when needed, and Kenny Phillips will provide
veteran leadership at safety.
The biggest concern has to be whether the O-line can
be healthy and whether the best offensive player, LeSean McCoy, can find an
effective use in the offense.
More
than one way to Skin a cat: Alright, I love the Skins as you
know. I will tell you what I’m excited
about first.
The defense will be somewhat improved, especially on
the back end. With Brandon Merriweather
not yet healthy, Bacarri Rambo will be asked to fill in at safety. In a year when everyone in DC misses Sean
Taylor, Rambo could be the man for this year.
Phillip Thomas will also be in the mix at safety. David Amerson has received generally positive
reviews from pundits, but I remain concerned that he will not justify the high
draft position we used on him. Still,
anything to give DeAngelo Hall a reason to fear for his job is fine with
me. As well as the secondary, Brian
Orakpo will start the year healthy, giving the pass rush a major boost. Losing Adam Carriker until November hurts
from a run prevention standpoint, and Jarvis Jenkins’ suspension means DC may
start a jerry-rigged solution for the first four weeks on the D-line.
It’s also tough not to feel great about Alfred Morris. I maintain the Redskins would have won
against Seattle last year had they given Morris the ball more than twice in the
second half. The blocking scheme
patented by Shanahan appears to be working nicely, and Morris will
benefit. The prospect of even a somewhat
healthy RGIII makes me feel warm and fuzzy, but there’s a part I’m not as
excited about.
I think it highly likely the read option formation
won’t be as big a part of this year’s offense.
Griffin can eat up yardage using that formation, so if his mobility is a
little impaired the playcalling will adjust.
We likely see this Week 1 while the Shanahans try to protect Griffin as
best they can. Still, we forget his accuracy
(65%) and low interceptions (only five last year) which means even a hobbled
Griffin can still be dangerous if he completes his full throwing motion.
The reason I don’t see us getting over .500 has many
manifestations, but they all center around RGIII in some way. First, we have no historical basis for
believing Pierre Garcon will fully play up to his potential, and Fred Davis is
coming off a tough Achilles injury. Don’t
get me wrong, RGIII has plenty of receiving weapons, but I’m unwilling to bet
on them. The one glimmer of hope is that
the presence of Alfred Morris will cause defenses to fall for play action. Still, Griffin needs to be close to ready for
this season if the Redskins want to repeat their division titles. I know I’ve forgotten…this team was 3-6 at
one point last year and looked to be dead in the water before rattling off
seven straight wins.
Despite back end improvements, the pass protection
and defense remains a huge liability for the Skins. Josh Wilson did well last year when called
on, but Deangelo Hall continues to be burned by opposing receivers. With any luck, someone will supplant him
shortly and DC’s prospects as a city, vacation spot, and political center will
improve. Remember when Gandalf creepily
exorcises Sauruman out of Theoden in Lord of the Rings? Yeah, that’s what we need on defense.
Also, the schedulers didn’t help us with an early
bye. I would prefer to have that rest
come later so as to better preclude the chance that RGIII breaks down later in
the season. Unfortunately, our two
easiest games (Detroit and Oakland), come before the bye.
Putting it all together, I think .500 is a likely
result. We don’t have any idea about the
passing offense or the health of some very key players, so it’s tough to pick a
division victory. A saving grace is how
close the NFC East is, with three teams legitimately close to the top. It’s a roll of the dice, but I bet against my
guys.
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