AFC Preview

I tried a new thing this year…whereas I put out eight separate previews for each team, detailing in depth my thoughts for all NFL 32, I decided this year to wait a little longer and then write one big preview.  Each division can be seen below, and no, I did not predict three 10-win teams in the NFC North this year.  We all remember how that turned out.

So, we will start at the top, using the Washington Post standings for ordering and work our way down, beginning with the AFC East.

1.      Patriots (11-5)

2.      Dolphins (8-8)

3.      Bills (6-10)

4.      Jets (4-12)

Why this will be right: I don’t think anyone has a chance of catching the Patriots in this division, even with so much turnover on offense.  Welker will be missed as will the traditional tight end set, but if you’ve heard of Reche Caldwell, you know Tom Brady can do lots with very little.  For the Dolphins, I think a 7-9 finish will be their final mark, but the additions on both sides of the ball (Mike Wallace, Danell Ellerbe, Dustin Keller, etc.) will make this team competitive.  So, the team will play better than 8-8 teams normally do, but the eighth toughest schedule will hurt, especially with a growing QB.

For the Bills and Jets, they seem to be stuck in neutral or, in New York’s case, reverse.  Coach Doug Marrone will need this year to acclimate and begin his own process of restructuring this team.  The release of pricey DE Mark Anderson last week after one year certainly means everybody can be expendable.  That process takes times.  For the Jets, it all centers around the offense.  The D can be stifling, but without a remotely serviceable quarterback or receivers of any value, Gang Green will likely be losing a lot of 14-10 games.

Why this could be wrong: Two big variables for me in this division.  First is the Dolphins new chemistry.  They sunk a lot of money into some big names, similar to how the Bills worked last offseason.  If the results are the same, then Miami may find itself looking for a new direction.  A lot falls on Ryan Tannehill to be good in the face of pressure, especially after losing tackle Jake Long in free agency.

Second is the New England D.  Yes, they remain the team to beat, but does anyone else feel the Patriots haven’t stopped anyone in a big spot since Watergate?  I do, and that’s why I’m very much inclined to admit that should Miami put it all together, the division may not be so wide open.  Aqib Talib helped the defensive secondary a ton last year and Chandler Jones proved himself very effective, but the truth remains that only one position on defense can be accurately stated as upgraded, and that’s safety.

Interesting Fact That May Not Matter: No AFC East team finished over their projected Las Vegas win total last year, leading many

Something I Missed: The backup New England quarterback.  On purpose.

Now, the AFC North:

1.      Ravens (10-6)

2.      Steelers (9-7)

3.      Bengals (9-7)

4.      Browns (5-11)

Shocked? I would be.  Some guy just projected that the Browns will get five wins while the Steelers only get to 9 wins.  I will admit this division presents some serious problems for predictions, mainly since the teams are tough to forecast.  The Browns bring in a new coach, Cincy plays great until the first weekend in January, and the other two contenders have teams that look a little different than last year.

But, I do think the Ravens will get to 10 wins this year.  Flacco brings plenty of confidence to the table after his pay day, and the defense has not regressed at all after adding Elvis Dumervil and my Defensive Rookie of the Year, Artur Brown.  Pitts burgh begins Year 2 in Todd Haley’s offense and I think will improve from their lackluster effort last year, even if the record doesn’t show it.  Le’Veon Bell could be a great Steelers running back as a rookie while Big Ben returns from a threatening lung injury last year.

For the bottom two, I think Cincy’s little run in the heartland is up.  They’ve benefitted from very easy schedules the last two seasons, reaching the playoffs in both years.  Yes, Andy Dalton has had success, but he still threw 16 interceptions last season.  A.J. Green can make big plays, but if Dalton has any difficulty finding the end zone he doesn’t make smart enough decisions.  We’ve seen this against Houston in the playoffs the last two years.  In Cleveland, I am basing this projection mainly on their schedule.  They have at least five winnable games and I’m betting the defense led by Joe Haden at corner will do enough to win those games. 

Depends on what? The X-factor here for the entire division will be the schedule.  All four must play the NFC North, teams that either throw the ball around the yard or unleash Adrian Peterson.  Games with Green Bay or Chicago will be fun and I’m willing to bet those could be some of the best cross-conference games in 2013.

On the field, health will decide this division.  The Ravens projected 10 wins might already be a stretch after losing Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta, the latter to a dislocated hip.  In Pittsburgh, when Ben goes down they all go with him, so his health becomes very important.  The same will likely be true in Cleveland, where Trent Richardson’s availability determines how balanced their offense can be.  If injuries run wild here, things will change quickly.

Something I Missed: I didn’t mention the Cincinnati defense once above, and that’s a crime.  Geno Atkins remains one of the most underrated defensive players in the game and the linebacking corps added perennial Steelers troublemaker James Harrison.  That will only bolster the 8^th ranked defense from last year.

 

Ah yes, the always interesting AFC South:

1.      Texans (11-5)

2.      Colts (8-8)

3.      Titans (7-9)

4.      Jaguars (3-13)

Big Seasons Here: This division is full of teams that enter seasons with large question marks.  For the Texans, their fine offensive showings during the regular season have brought only embarrassing second round playoff losses.  For a team that dominates its division, they clearly fall well short of the AFC’s Elite status.  The defense will have its hand somewhat full this year against Baltimore, San Francisco, Denver, and Seattle.  Those will be huge tests and hopefully Ed Reed as a safety will be a big help.

For the other three teams, I see a large regression from the Colts.  They had a negative turnover and point differential last year and, short of a very possible Andrew Luck rise to power, have not changed much around him.  I do like the Bjoern Werner addition on D, but as a rookie he may not immediately contribute.  In Tennessee, this season looms large for all concerned.  The offensive line cannot be blamed for Chris Johnson’s woes anymore, with Chance Warmack and Andy Levitre joining that unit.  To that end, Johnson has no more excuses and will be asked to do better.  The Jaguars can go only as far as Blaine Gabbert can throw which, coincidentally, isn’t very far.  Gabbert has one last legitimate chance to perform.  If he falls at all short of low expectations, expect new coach Gus Bradley to go out and find a new starter somewhere.

Luck can change fortunes: While I continue to believe Houston has a stranglehold on the South, the Colts rode their rookie QB to a 11-5 record last year that surprised almost everyone.  He did so despite throwing 23 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, a ratio that must come down for the Colts to be viable.  With him under center, however, Indy could be back in double digits this season…it all depends on the development.

Here’s your new Locker: All reports out of Titans camp show Jake Locker improving as a quarterback.  Without Matt Hasselbeck to bring a veteran savvy behind him, the Titans really are relying on Locker to bring them somewhere close to contention.  A 7-9 season will be only a one-win improvement, but 8-8 isn’t out of the question here.  If Locker and CJ2K can work in tandem together well, this team might have legs.

Unlike Kenny Britt:…who has injured what seems to be every major part of his lower body the last two seasons.  I would know, I keep drafting him in fantasy for what’s averaged to about three weeks on my roster.  IF he can stay even remotely healthy, Britt does create nightmares for opposing pass coverage personnel.

Last thing I missed: Maurice Jones-Drew continues wallowing in Jacksonville, singlehandedly keeping the team remotely interesting.  Without Justin Blackmon for the first four weeks, MJD will be carrying the entire offensive load.

The AFC West, or better known as Manning and hangers-on:

1.      Broncos (12-4)

2.      Chiefs (7-9)

3.      Chargers (6-10)

4.      Raiders (4-12)

Manning Up: Denver will likely take the #1 seed in the conference again this year but that looks more uncertain after the Von Miller trade.  Let’s keep in mind the 2012 Broncos, who needed a second half comeback in Week 3 before rattling off 11 victories.  While I don’t anticipate that to occur again this year, the loss of both Elvis Dumervil and Miller will hurt during the first four weeks.  Still, there’s no competition for Manning in a really eventful AFC West schedule ahead (five primetime games, returning to Indy, Manning Bowl, and Welker’s return to New England).

I know everyone has put the Chiefs on their “Surprise” list for what seems like the fourth season in a row, but this year it makes sense.  New QB and new coach will come with growing pains, but I think the offense will be able to move the ball this year through the air.  Alex Smith really doesn’t throw too many interceptions (ten combined the last two seasons).  Assuming the Chiefs D can remain near the top of the conference, they have a good shot of flirting with that .500 season.

As for the Chargers, I can’t project anything better than this.  Antonio Gates is the only member of their perennial contending teams that still plays well for this roster, and he’s injured every season at least once.  Philip Rivers has 64 turnovers in the last three seasons and, entering his tenth year as a pro, needs to show improvement this season for new coach Mike McCoy to stick with him.  The Chargers do have the easiest road schedule, but their warts will still show, especially on that defensive front seven.

Lastly, Oakland…where to begin.  Matt Flynn finally has a chance as a starter, but his first season in town obviously comes with a grain of salt…new offense and new location.  Darren McFadden, another typically underachieving member of my fantasy roster, brings explosiveness, only he usually explodes his knee or ankle.  McFadden’s injury concerns highlight the storyline coming into this season, but kudos to them for rejuvenating the defense by signing Charles Woodson and adding around him.  The secondary will create whatever comes out of Oakland this year.

X-Factor:  The Chargers O-Line gave up 49 sack last year, but additions in the offseason will likely decrease that number.  If Philip Rivers has a chance to throw the ball, he can be deadly.  Another real interesting variable for this division will be how well the Chiefs balance their offense.  Jamaal Charles remains a good back and I’d bet he will break plenty long runs open.