Yeah, the baseball season is coming to a close
soon. Billy Beane, the A’s GM, said it
correctly a few years ago: “my job is to get the team to the playoffs, from
there it’s all luck.” And he’s
definitely right. The Giants, winners in
two of the past three years, were not the best team in baseball either of those
seasons. Many may remember when I picked
the Tigers to steamroll SF last year, only to eat my words at the end of a
quick sweep by the other guys. Well, I
will try to do better this time around, keeping in mind that anything can
happen in October.
It appears I will be right about the Indians making
the Wild Card game. They’ve won seven straight
against easy competition, but are still only one game clear of Texas. Either way, I’m operating under the
assumption they get in. From there, the
AL presents an interesting case. I bet
Boston cruises against the Rays-Indians winner (I’m pulling for Cleveland) and
I’ll pick the Tigers over the A’s. It’s
not that Oakland doesn’t have momentum…they’ve been the hottest team in
baseball over the past month. But, the
starting pitching for Detroit has been excellent this year. Especially if Cabrera is healthy, Detroit
should win, setting up a fun ALCS.
On the NL side, as much as the Pirates continue to
be a great story, they won’t last one game after playing .500 for the past
month. Cincinnati also doesn’t really
inspire much confidence in me, as I don’t think their starters can match up at
all against those of St. Louis, who I bet will reach the top record in the
league. Which sets up a dandy of an NLDS
between Atlanta and Los Angeles. This
one should be a wild ride. While the
Dodgers are a trendy pick, Atlanta brings an excellent bullpen with a 2.46
bullpen ERA. Still, we are in 5-game
series land so I pick the Dodgers to eke out a win against a Brave team that
could easily win a 7-game series.
For the ALCS, it’s tough to not take Boston. They bring three quality starters who have
performed well in the postseason, unlike much of Detroit’s pitching staff
(Verlander, for example, has a 3.46 ERA in the postseason). Boston is 21-9 over the past 30 games, an
absolutely torrid pace. In the NL, you
have to assume Clayton Kershaw will get at least two starts. He’s given up 13 earned runs in his last ten
starts, so there are two likely wins right there. Admittedly, St. Louis has been sneaky good
the past few years, and one should pick against them at your peril. But the pitching staffs just after Kershaw
match up evenly and will likely be a push.
Still, the Cards average almost a run more than LA, and I’m betting they
win in seven games.
Which brings us to a repeat of the 2004 World
Series: Boston and St. Louis. Purely on
the face of it, Boston brings a more talented lineup that averaged over five runs
a game this season. Postseason
experience basically washes out here, and I’d say the pitching does too. Lester, Buchholtz, and Peavy bring veteran
savvy, even before you throw Ryan Dempster into the mix. But, the Cards would have a chance. Game 1 would feature Adam Wainwright (18-9,
3.01 ERA) who has pitched very well for St. Louis this year and has a ring
already. The X-factor will likely be
22-year-old Shelby Miller (15-9, 3.06 ERA), who has no such experience but has
been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals behind Wainwright. This easily would be a seven game series, in
which case I defer to home field advantage.
Boston has gone 53-28 in Fenway this season and, in a weak AL, I bet
they make their way to the title one year after a horrific soap opera season.
Bit
#1: Week 3 Power Rankings – NFL
It was a very strange Week 3, with last year’s
darlings by and large falling very short.
The top two aren’t going to change, but after that it gets a little
crazy this week.
1.
Broncos
(3-0)
Another big night by Denver and I’m
starting to wonder if this team can’t go 16-0 this season. Peyton continues to play very well and
setting records for the first three games.
2.
Seahawks
(3-0)
Same story here. Seattle beat Jacksonville in a game where
Russell Wilson sat from the middle of the third quarter onwards. After worrying about where Seattle stood in
the NFC West, I’m a believer.
3.
Chicago
(3-0)
This is something of a weird
rating, but Chicago’s defense has scored three touchdowns already and can make
the field incredibly short. Especially
on a night when Jay Cutler wasn’t at his best, the defense changed the game and
stopped Pittsburgh cold when it appeared momentum might be shifting. Given the Sunday night setting, this
classifies as a good win. Offense needs
to improve somewhat, however.
4.
Saints
(3-0)
The Cardinals aren’t great but for
a defense that last year hit historically bad numbers to hold each opponent
below 17 points thus far, New Orleans deserves to be discussed more. In a surprising game of unbeatens, New Orleans
has Miami this week. If you want to beat
this team, stop Jimmy Graham.
5.
Patriots
(3-0)
Still don’t like them, but the
rookie wide receivers bounced back well.
If Amendola and Gronk return soon, Belichick will likely try to
transition back to the no-huddle offense.
That said, the inefficiency of Stevan Ridley means the offense still
searches for balance.
6.
Chiefs
(3-0)
I think I’m on board with this
team. Kansas City brings an infinitely
improved offense to 2013 and with such a talented defense there’s no reason to
think KC will falter, especially if Jamaal Charles continues his current
production.
7.
Bengals
(2-1)
Great win for them in Cincy, albeit
a lucky one. Andy Dalton ranks top ten
in Total QBR and has a 67% completion rate.
If Bernard and Green-Ellis keep defenses fearing the run, Dalton might
have a great chance at some big numbers.
8.
Packers
(1-2)
I realize, they are ranked over an
undefeated team. Well, as much as you
have to like Miami’s win over Atlanta, the Pack win the game if Jonathan Franklin
converts on fourth-and-1. Even if he
doesn’t fumble, they might win. I expect
the bye week to help Green Bay refocus and get their cornerbacks fully
healthy. Betting against Aaron Rodgers
never works out well.
9.
Dolphins
(3-0)
I’m not above putting a lucky 3-0
team this far down the list. Look, Miami
has rallied behind Ryan Tannehill, winning a huge game against the Falcons this
past weekend. I am not entirely sure
their success is sustainable. The
offensive line has allowed 14 sacks and boasts the 28th ranked
running attack in the league. Throw in a
brutal schedule, and Miami will likely regress.
If Cameron Wake is hurt with his MCL sprain, it will be a guaranteed
regression.
10. Colts (2-1)
Who saw this coming? I picked the Colts to finish out of the
playoffs this year, but their tough win on the West Coast (it was closer to a
rout) certainly boosts my impression of this team. They can bring it now with the run game, but
Andrew Luck for all the hype hasn’t done a whole lot this year. Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, and EJ Manuel
have thrown more balls than Luck thus far.
You fantasy nuts are probably not seeing this due to his two rushing
touchdowns, but Luck may be called upon to win a game for his team.
Bit
#2: One wave of young QBs on their way out
Poof! Just
like that, many of the guy we thought would lead the NFL in the next decade are
sitting their butts down. The Browns
will continue to start Brian Hoyer, a journeyman, in place of Brandon
Weeden. It’s true that Weeden has a
thumb injury, but reports out of Cleveland are that a full-on battle is
underway for that job.
I admit, when I started writing this, I expected
Blaine Gabbert to be permanently benched, but he will be coming back this
weekend to the joy of those who hate football.
Chad Henne will never be The Guy, but does anyone really expect Gabbert
to do anything productive for the next little while in the NFL? He’s on borrowed time, and who knows…maybe
Denard Robinson will start soon (Sidenote: how was Gabbert picked in the top
ten? His last year at Mizzou showed 16
TDs, 9 INTs, and 6.7 yards per attempt.
That offense must have been predicated wholly on the bubble screen, because
a guy with 3175 yards should have more than 16 scores. Really bad pick).
But there was always hope for Josh Freeman, who
presented an absolutely fantastic 2010 campaign. He threw 25 touchdowns and only six picks,
and frankly looked to be pretty good.
After the expected sophomore slump, he started 2012 on a tear, throwing
for 1975 yards-16 TDs-3 INT over the course of seven games. Since then?
He’s barely qualified to start at Bowling Green. Over the past eight games, Freeman has
completed less than half his passes and found the end zone eight times. With 13 INTs over that period, you know
Freeman deserved to be benched. Well,
the Bucs finally did the dirty deed, sitting Josh down for Mike Glennon, the
rookie out of NC State. At this point,
our hope is on the Kaepernick/Wilson/RGIII/Luck grouping of young quarterbacks,
because based on Thursday’s game Sam Bradford isn’t hanging around much longer
either.
Bit
#3: Strange NBA Signing
The Sacramento
Kings have, to my knowledge, never graced Dibbles and Bits. And for good reason…they haven’t really done
much of anything in recent years. But,
on Thursday, they announced that the team agreed to an extension with forward
Demarcus Cousins through 2018. The terms
of the deal: four years, over $60 million.
That’s really big money for this guy. Yes, Cousins averaged 17.1 points and 9.9
rebounds last year, but his consistent flare-ups with the coaching staff
cemented the image of Sacramento as a dysfunctional organization. New ownership has come in to reset that
reputation, but I’m not sure a guy who was suspended by the team last year
deserves to be brought back as a cornerstone of your franchise going
forward. The hope is that Cousins will
accept the second chance and work hard to justify the team’s investment. I am decently skeptical of this, as players
with so much volatility can create cancers in the clubhouse.
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