That Time of Year

For my money, the next two months are wonderful.  Hockey players, to say the least, bruise easily.  Their egos get ever so tender in April, as do their bodies that have endured a punishing six months of the regular season.  But the true awe-inspiring characteristic: playoff beards.

Still, I think it’s important to give my readers some insight into the goodness of the next two months, which will end with some non-Capital hoisting the Stanley Cup.

And yes, I'm not pleased that the guy I picked to miss the cut at The Masters ended up winning the dang Jacket.  But, gotta love Bubba for his genuine love of the game.

Now, onto hockey:

Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins vs. Detroit Red Wings

This is something of a tough draw for the Bruins, who finished with the best record in the league.  Detroit has been on a tear recently and ripped through the latter half of their schedule to continue their playoff streak.  We should also remember Detroit went up 3-1 last year on the eventual Cup champion Blackhawks, so disregard them at your own peril.

Detroit wins if:  The youth movement marches inexorably onwards and Henrik Zetterberg returns healthy.  Gustav Nyquist, Thomas Tatar, Thomas Jurco, Danny DeKeyser, and other juveniles have pushed Detroit across the finish line.  Without Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg for most of the post-Olympic games, Detroit didn’t miss a beat.  Nyquist in particular, played extremely well.  He scored 28 goals in only 57 games this season.

Zetterberg had a back injury take him out of the Olympics, and has not yet returned.  He’s been skating recently, and may be back, but I tend to think even if he returns, I expect his minutes won’t be too high.

Boston wins if:  Nothing changes.  Seriously, Boston is arguably one of the best teams I can remember.  None of their guys are in the top 20 of the scoring ranks in the NHL, yet they had the best record.  They roll four lines of forwards and bring the best goalie in the world to the table.  Tuukka Rask can singlehandedly keep the Bruins in any series if the scoring disappears.

X-Factor:  The question revolves around whether Detroit’s D-men can withstand the onslaught of forechecking that Boston will bring.  Niklas Kronwall will bring pressure and steady play, but guys like Brendan Smith and Brian Lashoff are wild cards that will play on the second and third defensive pairings.  The Bruins bring pressure and physicality, which may make mincemeat of the Wing defensive depth.

Prediction: Bruins in five.

 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

I can’t tell you how much I hoped Detroit would play Pittsburgh.  Alas, the Blue Jackets had the tiebreaker, and thus will go against the heavy guns.  When looking at the Pens, it’s tough not thinking about years past, as Pittsburgh has been a very quick out in the playoffs when compared to their prodigious talent level.  On the other side, Columbus has never won a postseason game, which I expect to change this year.

Both teams win depending on:  The play of the goalie.  Sure, Pittsburgh brings offensive firepower in Crosby, Malkin, Neal, etc. but the true depending factor of this series will be Marc-Andre Fleury.  Two years ago, Pittsburgh lost to a less talented team due to Fleury’s optional attitude towards goalie play.  This year might end similarly if Fleury can’t steady the ship.

Bobrovsky won the Vezina last year and, unlike last season, has a team in front of him that might provide him some support.  That said, the Blue Jackets have only one player with over 22 goals, so the offensive committee approach might create lots of pressure on Sergei Bobs, particularly if the quick Penguins move through the neutral zone with speed.

This will be a goaltending series, no doubt.  I should note also that while the Pens swept the season series with Columbus, they only beat Bobrovksy once.

X-factor: Sidney Crosby.  Best player in the world, and definite MVP this year.  No one else should be on the X-factor landscape.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in six.  This will be entertaining but I don’t see Columbus pulling it off.

 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens

These two teams flew under the radar for much of the year.  That Tampa has home-ice advantage in any series was a huge shock to a daily follower of the sport like myself, but the storylines here are not as compelling as in other series. 

Tampa will win if:  Another goaltending question here.  Ben Bishop is, for my money, the Vezina winner this year.  When superstar Steven Stamkos went down with an injury early in the year, Bishop filled the void by registering top-10 numbers in all major goalie stats.

But, he missed the last three games of the year due to an upper body injury.  Behind him, Anders Lindback has not been any kind of reliable this season (8-12 with a .891 save percentage), and from there they Lightning will have a fairly empty cupboard for options.  That decides the series.

Montreal will win if:  The top line continues its tear.  The acquisition of Thomas Vanek from the Islanders revamped how Montreal runs its offense.  In 14 games together, the Vanek-Pacioretty-Desharnais line combined for 18 goals and 23 assists.  That’s exactly what the Canadiens need to advance past this series.

X-factor:  There are a few here, but I’m going to pick Carey Price, the Montreal goalie.  He wasn’t very good last postseason against Ottawa, and also got hurt in that series.  But, since then, Price has backstopped an Olympic Gold Medal team.  He’s firmly in the elite goaltender conversation.

There’s another one though, and that’s the rookies for Tampa.  Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson are contenders for the Rookie of the Year award.  Combined, they are a gaudy plus-55 this season, meaning their two-way play is top notch.  While Steven Stamkos will receive lots of media attention for his goal scoring tendencies, don’t discount the young guys, especially Johnson who, with five shorthanded goals all season, might just pot one at the right time for Tampa.

Prediction: Canadiens in seven.

 New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia Flyers

The East is usually good for one tradition-laden first round series.  This year, the two division rivals face off, and the interesting subplot is how teams play away from home.  The Flyers haven’t won in New York since February 2011, and the home team won every game in the season series.

Either teams wins if:  They win the physical battle.  These teams are very similar in their make-up, as each will roll four lines with contributors on each line.  For me, the series will depend on how well the respective defensive units handle the physical pressure.  When analyzing each, it’s hard not to think Philly has more question marks on the back end.  Andrew McDonald has been a minor disappointment since coming over in a trade, and Kimmo Timonen is 39 years old.  That said, the Rangers also do not bring the kind of forward depth that Philly possesses, so it would seem this series will even out on the ice as of now.

X-factors:  Steve Mason and Henrik Lundqvist.  When presented with two well-matched teams, the series changers become the goalies.  Mason gained over 30 wins for the first time since his rookie season and is, for what seems like the first time a while, the unquestioned starter.  Lundqvist is the same guy he’s always been…rock solid.  There’s no real question about his abilities in the postseason, and I bet he will decide this series.

Prediction:  There will be one game in this series with over 100 penalty minutes combined.  I think it’s gotta be a bruising one, but the Rangers prevail in seven.

 Western Conference

Anaheim Ducks vs. Dallas Stars

The Stars have beaten the Ducks two out of three times this season, meaning the top record in the West won’t provide gobs of benefits for Anaheim.  Tough to dismiss is the loss by Anaheim in last year’s playoffs as a two-seed, but the hope is the Duck youth will be more familiar with postseason play this time around.  The Stars, meanwhile, finally managed to make it into the postseason after multiple seasons of just missing out on the final tournament.  It’s safe to say their rebuilding effort looks to be progressing well.

Dallas wins if:  Goalie Kari Lehtonen stands on his head.  He won 33 games this season and become a workhorse in Dallas.  While the speed of Dallas forwards like Tyler Seguin will have an effect, Anaheim still brings way more offensive clout, meaning Lehtonen will need to be as good as possible for his team to prevail over seven games.

Anaheim wins if:  Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf show up, and Jonas Hiller is somewhat solid.  The depth of Anaheim is immense, and the same goes for the  defensemen.  Cam Fowler made the U.S. team this year, and Francois Beauchemin is a plus/minus machine.

X-factor:  Bearing in mind Lehtonen will truly decide this series, Tyler Seguin could theoretically put together a gaudy series to give the Stars some hope.  This is especially true on the power play, as Seguin had 11 goals this year with the man advantage.  He might score a big one in a key game.

Prediction: Ducks in five.

 Coloarado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild

This will likely be the series I see the least of, since it will be relegated to CNBC or worse on television.  But, we should not look askance at how this series might play out.  Colorado shocked everyone by being this good in 2013-14, even if they needed a significant St. Louis collapse to grab the division title. 

Minnesota wins if:  They score at all.  The Wild have only three players with over 20-goal scorers.  Zach Parise and Jason Pominville have played well getting the Wild this far, and Ryan Suter mainstays a really shutdown Minnesota defense, but if the bottom-six forwards don’t score this will be a short series for the Wild.

Colorado wins if:  They make up for the absence of Matt Duchene.  He is the team’s leading scorer who suffered a knee injury and is questionable for this series.  Besides him, the Avs have some serious young talent in Gabriel Landeskong, Ryan O’Reilly, and the talented Nathan MacKinnon, all of whom are under 24.  These guys should be able to paper over what is an uninspiring defensive corps in Colorado.

X-factor:  Since coming over in a trade, goalie Ilya Bryzgalov has gone 7-0-3 with three shutouts for the Wild.  He will be a difference maker here.  While Bryz has a spotty playoff history in recent years, he has shored up the Minnesota net to the point where the Wild can play to their defensive strengths.  The Wild have gained 21 points when entering the third period behind, so they are gritty, which only is helped by a goalie playing his best.

Another note here: the Avs are immensely young.  I realize that doesn’t sound like much, but to last two months requires deep experience.  If there’s one thing to be concerned about with Colorado besides the Duchene injury, it’s youth.

Prediction: Avalanche in six.

 St. Louis Blues vs. Chicago Blackhawks

Truthfully, this series shouldn’t even happen.  The Blues lost their final six games of the season and the Hawks have been 5-6 in the last 11 games.  These slides have coincided with a serious injury problem for both teams, meaning one of the best squads all year will be eliminated after the first round.  Three weeks ago, this was my Western Conference Finals matchup, if that gives any context.

St. Louis wins if:  They are healthy and they score.  What was once one of the top offensive groups has been decimated by injuries to David Backes, T.J. Oshie, Patrik Berglund, Vladimiar Sobotka, and Vladimir Tarasenko.  Coach Hitchcock claims all his injured guys are close to being right, but time will tell.  The bigger concern is scoring for the Blues.  Despite having one of the best defensive groups in the playoffs, the Blues scored nine goals in their last nine games.  When going against the second-ranked offense in Chicago, that isn’t a great recipe.

Chicago wins if:  Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane return.  This same roster won the Cup last season, so having all hands on deck will be important given how much hockey they’ve seen in the last year or so.  Kane has been out for weeks, but the team continues to tell the media that he will return.  Which will make the Hawks tough to handle, especially when we consider the inclusion of Marian Hossa and Andrew Shaw on this team.  The depth is tough to overcome.

X-factor:  Ryan Miller.  For the first time in three years, the Blues have a goalie who can equalize a playoff series.  Miller has also reached deep in the playoffs twice in his career, so don’t discount him based only on his somewhat pedestrian regular season numbers with St. Louis, much of which comes from the recent slide.

Prediction:  Tough to tell with injuries, but I like Chicago in seven.

 San Jose Sharks vs. LA Kings

This will be the one to watch.  The Sharks and Kings played an immensely tough seven game series last year, and a six game series the previous season.  The Kings are one team the West powers did not want to face, but one note is that in the season series between these teams is the home squad went 4-1-0.  That might be big for the Sharks if Game 7 becomes a reality yet again.

LA wins if:  They can overcome another year of offensive woes.  They scored the 25^th most goals this year, well below the Sharks, who ranked fifth in the same category.  At the same time, the Kings have given up the fewest goals of any team in the league.  As such, Jonathan Quick and the stifling defense must continue their strong campaign to keep San Jose out of the net.

San Jose wins if:  Antti Niemi beats Jonathan Quick.  I fully expect the Kings to grind out some victories while relying on Quick to keep the Sharks at bay.  It’s tough acting like Niemi is a bad goalie (he’s won a Cup and was at the top in wins this season), but he definitely is not the strength of this team.  Given that scoring more than three goals will be tough on Quick, Niemi needs to be great to win.

X-factor:  Besides the two goalies, Justin Williams of the Kings deserves mention here.  He scored twice in Game 7 last year against the Sharks, and also scored in 2006 to give the Cup to Carolina.  He isn’t going to be the name you hear coming into the series, but there’s no doubt Williams has a knack for scoring big goals.

Prediction:  I hemmed and hawed here, but the Sharks are the better team.  I’m thinking the Kings’ magical run ends this year.  Sharks in six.