The Masters

This is the year.  The year I can finally write a bit of a column about The Masters, knowing full well the five or so hits this article gets will be by people who will read it all.  I’ve been through the field, and here’s what you will need to expect at The Masters.

1.      Open Season.  A few years ago, Trevor Immelman won The Masters after seemingly coming in from the local McDonald’s.  Very few knew who he was, and even fewer likely can tell you what he’s doing now (like every Masters champ, he’s allowed into the field for the rest of his life).  I could see a similar type of winner this year.  Only Patrick Reed has won twice thus far this year, and a guy won a tournament a few weeks ago while shooting a 76 in the final round.  Especially with Tiger gone, look for a strange candidate this weekend to emerge.

2.      Experience Matters Most.  Notwithstanding the paragraph above, the biggest key at The Masters is experience.  The hole locations don’t change year to year, and the course in general really doesn’t change (minus the uprooting of the Eisenhower Tree this year, which is a controversial decision undoubtedly) so if you’ve done well here before, the course just catches your eye.  Phil Mickelson has finished in the top five nine times since 2001, and Tiger (despite all his troubles) has finished in the top six eight out of the past nine years.  Augusta favors its own.

3.      Cream at the Top.  Since 1986, the tournament has been won by a player in the World Top 10 seventeen times, more than any other major all year.

4.      Win the Weekend.  The first two rounds really don’t matter much for the casual observer.  Only one person in the last 29 years has won while holding the first round lead.  Only two in the last 14 have won when leading going into the weekend.  Contrast that with the stat that of the past 23 champs, 19 have come from Sunday’s final pairing.  Clearly it behooves one to be in the mix, but Saturday is the all-important day for any potential winner.

5.      Don’t Bet on Europe.  Jose Maria Olazabal was the last Masters champ from Europe, back in 1999.  Suffice it to say, we are a long way from the dominance of Nick Faldo and Bernhard Langer.

Now, here are some players for everyone to keep an eye on:

Phil: I was worried about Phil even making it to Augusta, but a T12 in Houston last weekend means Phil looks to be clicking on all cylinders.  Right now, I’d absolutely put him in the group of guys who can win this thing.  He seems to be back and has won thrice already at Augusta.

Matt Kuchar:  Notable for many reasons, not the least of which being his immensely flat swing.  For a guy of Kuchar’s stature to bring his backswing so far down his back still looks hokey to me, but he’s been able to put it to good use.  Winner of The Players in the past, with six top tens this year, and coming off a playoff loss last week where he led the field in greens-in-regulation, Kuchar is peaking right now.  Also, he’s the guy who might need this the most, as Kuchar has long been a major favorite without any real showing to meet expectations. 

Rory McIlroy:  He’s finished in the top 25 each time he’s taken the course this year, so there’s plenty of reason to like Rory.  He came close at The Honda Classic this year too, losing in a playoff on a very difficult course.  He has it all, just wondering if he can take it to the cabin at the end.

Henrik Stenson:  My ambivalence towards blogging last year somehow left me to not mention just how impressive this Swede was to close out last year.  He won the FedEx Cup and was the most consistent player coming down the stretch.  Now at Number 3 in the world, he seems to be fitting the bill.  But, Stenson is not only a Euro but he’s also never finished in the top 15 here.  It will be interesting to see how he does.

Adam Scott:  Unless you’re Tiger or Jack, repeating in back-to-back Masters can be immensely tough (Nick Faldo did do it also).  I like Scott coming into Augusta this year.  Minus a terrible collapse at Bay Hill, he’s been playing as well as he could to start the season.  Like Rory, he also hasn’t finished lower than 25 this season.  To cap it all, he’s the only guy to make the cut in the last 8 majors.

Justin Rose: Last year’s U.S. Open champ, Rose has a great fundamental swing.  I’m also fairly bullish on him, though it definitely isn’t because of his play this year.  He missed the cut at Bay Hill and looked a little overwhelmed when the Tour went to Doral.  But, I like Rose’s mindset now that he’s a major winner.

Lee Westwood and Luke Donald:  England has plenty of reps these days, and these two are perhaps the most enigmatic.  Donald was the guy for a while, holding the top world ranking but never breaking through when needed.  Westwood, on the other hand, is the model of overachievement, particularly at Augusta.  He’s finished in the top 15 the last four Masters, which no one else has done.  These guys will be fun to keep an eye on, only because they can likely hear the window latching shut.

Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed, Harris English:  These three guys are all very young, and one of them (Reed) is particularly irritating.  This same guy wears read and black on Sunday because he wants to be like Tiger, but let’s just say the sleek red shirt doesn’t look as good on him as it does on the jacked Eldrick Woods.  Jordan Spieth also is a crowd favorite, who still can’t legally drink.  I think English is the guy of these three.  He has six top tens this year, is fourth in scoring average, and is first in greens in regulation.  I’m betting he finishes top five this year in is first Masters.

Dustin Johnson:  Literally no one can overpower a golf course like DJ.  He makes a birdie or better on 57.5 percent of all Par 5s this year, which is tops on Tour.  He also boasts three top 5s this year.  That said, this mammoth comes with a volatile streak…he shot an 80 on Thursday last week and withdrew from the Houston after one round.  He’s a guy you could see either missing the cut or winning by five.

Sergio Garcia:  At this stage, the best European player coming into Augusta is the Spaniard.  I truthfully hope he wins so that he will have to host next year’s dinner, at which he might consider some different culinary options than what he’s offered in the past.  He has not missed a cut all year, and his lowest finish is nineteenth, in Abu Dhabi.  Not to mention the lowest scoring average on Tour.  He finished in the top ten here last year, so I wouldn’t count him out.

Fred Couples:  Is he 54?  Yes, but his finishes in The Masters the last four years:  6, T15, T12, and T13.  Nobody has the kind of feel for Augusta as Freddy.  His win here in 1992 was an eon ago, but I expect him to be on the first page for most of the week.

Ok, those are some guys I will have my eye on.  Time to give some predictions:

Surprise Missed Cut:  Bubba Watson.  Yeah, everyone should love him, but he tied for 50^th last year.  He only has three top 10s in majors over his career, so I’m betting he doesn’t do well this week despite his win two years ago.  

This year’s Miguel Angel Jimenez:  MAJ is a golfer who hits the top of major leaderboards every couple of years, which starts everyone wondering if he can do it that year.  He inevitably can’t close it up down the stretch.  My guy here is Victor Dubuisson.  A Frenchman, Dubuisson is immensely creative around the greens, which vaulted him into the Match Play Championship final just a few weeks ago.  You don’t know him, but I’m betting he shows up for a round or two.  Or Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano, who finished T20 last year.

My Winner:  Picking a winner for any golf event is tough, but I’m gonna pick Scott to repeat.  He’s played the best at all the Big Boy events recently and has been on a tear coming in.  Plus, there’s nothing like repeating at Augusta, and since his form is there, it makes sense to bet on his experience as well.