Someone asked me recently for NFL Predictions. I kinda blew him off, since I continue to
have trouble getting this blog at an easily maintained level. In addition, there are some stories that have
not been particularly interesting to most of you (seriously, you want me to
write about the US Open in tennis? Or
golf? Or hockey, which someone politely
told me last week “no one cares about”?)
Sigh. It can
be difficult to determine what to write, but as the NFL season is upon us, I
thought I’d add my thoughts for my fans (who, according to another friend,
number between 5-10 actual consistent readers…go figure).
AFC East
1. Patriots
(11-5)
2. Dolphins
(8-8)
3. Jets
(6-10)
4. Bills
(4-12)
You will notice the lack of win/loss records. Well, I got lazy and haven’t had a chance to
dive in-depth on how the schedules shake out this year.
But there’s no reason not to expect the Patriots to
repeat. I continue to have questions
about who exactly will be catching the ball for them, but it’s safe to expect
more consistent play from their stone handed pair of Kenbrell Thompkins and
Aaron Dobson. And let’s not forget that
defense, which will be returning Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo up the middle
after injuries last year. I continue to
think Brady will bring this team to the top, perhaps singlehandedly.
The bottom three all have question marks. Buffalo unfortunately is somewhat stuck with
a decent running game but also have a Weeden-esque quarterback (after two
years, he might be off the roster).
Throw in the recent acquisition of Kyle Orton as their backup, and EJ
Manuel’s seat must be getting hot.
Fairness dictates we discuss their quietly imposing defense last year,
which was fourth-best. Unfortunately,
Jairus Byrd flew the coop to New Orleans, and Defense Rookie of the Year
runner-up Kiko Alonso is out for the season.
And a new defensive coordinator?
Might be a slog in Buffalo.
The Dolphins and Jets are both interesting. Miami had the worst O-line last year, even
before its trench fighters started shouted racial epithets at each other. There are now four new linemen for this crew,
so just maybe they have a chance. On
defense, the run game will be an issue most likely, as Dion Jordan has done
nothing to warrant trading up in the 2013 draft to select him. That said, the Dolphins were one win out from
the playoffs last year. One. Keep
Tannehill upright and maybe, just maybe this works out.
As for the Jets, who knows? If the running attack gets humming, Geno
Smith might be able to roll out of the pocket a little bit. Despite CJ2K being on multiple fantasy teams
of mine (disgusting, I took him TWICE), I am skeptical. And how about that secondary? Seriously, I recognize these names as much as
I recognize my parents’ office mates. Some
familiarity, but you need to walk away when you see them coming to avoid any
really weird comments. Maybe this team
rides the Smith/Vick monster to an outside wild card chance, but I think Rex
Ryan will finally be gone after a dismal defensive season.
AFC North
1. Pittsburgh
(9-7)
2. Cincinnati
(9-7)
3. Baltimore
(8-8)
4. Cleveland
(3-13)
Everyone seems to like Pittsburgh in this division
this year, which is something of a gamble given the poor play of the O-line
last year. Unlike previous iterations of
this squad, the Steelers will rely on rookies for defense, particularly Ryan
Shazier and Stephon Tuitt. The O-line
also might emerge this year, provided
everyone is healthy. Last year,
their center Maurkice Pouncey lasted three snaps before a season-ending
injury. But I’m not willing to throw Ben
out yet, though this division will be close.
Cincy is a wild card. I put them high since Baltimore and Cleveland
are inspiring less confidence than the Bengals, who lost their offensive
coordinator and are cursed with a QB that no one understands. You have to love the defense though, with
Geno Atkins and Vontaze Burfict leading a similar unit to last year, which
ranked sixth last year. You just have to
wonder about Dalton making the grade. He
has the necessary arsenal of talent around him.
You know what, put these guys in first.
My decision is made easier by the Bengals recently pulling a very classy
move for one of their own.
Baltimore looks to regroup under Gary Kubiak as
offensive coordinator, who is the key cog here.
Joe Flacco, who I mistakenly labeled “elite” after their Super Bowl run,
had a bad year in 2013, throwing a lot of picks. He will be aided by better pass catchers in
Steve Smith, Dennis Pitta, and Owen Daniels, but the other important thing is
the running game. The Ravens averaged
3.1 yards a carry last year. With Ray
Rice suspended for two games, it may take a while to get back on track. I don’t love a bounce-back from Flacco, as he’s
too unreliable.
A not-so-talented roster in Cleveland now that Josh
Gordon is gone, and they will rely on Ben Tate to keep the running game
going. Personally, I’m down on Johnny
Manziel. He may very well start some
games in 2014, but I am not confident this guy will be able to put it together
in the face of excellent defensive pressure.
Having to play the three teams above for six of those games will be
tough for the Browns, and I would be shocked if they finish above 1-5 in
divisional games.
AFC South
1. Colts
(10-6)
2. Texans
(8-8)
3. Jaguars
(5-11)
4. Titans
(2-14)
Unless Bortles can play well, this division is the
room service counter of the NFL (i.e. covered in goodness-knows-what). Shonn Greene still has a job as a depth chart
starter here, which tells me all I need to know (as a colleague said this week,
he bought low on Greene in fantasy about five years ago).
The Texans will be better, and are sure to benefit
from the NFL’s scheduling rules which have them play all four fourth place
finishes from the AFC last year. Games
against the Browns, Bills, and Raiders?
Thank you. They aren’t first
because no one of intelligence should trust Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. Maybe newly-acquired Ryan Mallett plays into
their plans at some point, but given the QB conundrum and Arian Foster’s injury
concerns, I don’t see them factoring much beyond 8-8 or 7-9.
I’ve discussed the Titans, and will just add they
have no real quarterback, so there’s that.
For the Jags, it could be really interesting to
watch them this year. I know they are
set on Chad Henne starting for a bit, but even so I think they will be good
enough for a third place finish. Gotta
love brining in Chris Clemons and Red Bryant from Seattle, who know coach Gus
Bradley’s defensive system. Even with stellar
QB play, however, the Jags won’t go much higher due to a lack of quality
talent. Toby Gerhart might be a
300-carry guy, but I have little faith he will amount to much in the way of
positive yardage. There’s also not much
on defense for them either, or for wide receivers.
This all leaves the Colts, who have the best
quarterback in the division, and the best receivers. Might be a little regression unfortunately, but
no reason not to doubt them.
AFC West
1. Broncos
(12-4)
2. Chiefs
(8-8)
3. Chargers
(7-9)
4. Raiders
(4-12)
The Broncos are fairly self-explanatory. Great offense, and some improvements on
defense will help them tremendously. I’m
fairly excited to see how DeMarcus Ware fits in this scheme, if at all. The addition of Aqib Talib also is going to
be a huge boon for Denver. Pretty easy
road for them this year, barring injuries.
The Chargers-Chiefs dynamic is one that will be
interesting and tough to predict. San
Diego got into the playoffs last year after their three competitors for the
last spot all lost. KC, meanwhile,
brought the house down during the first half of 2013 before eventually coming
back to Earth, before losing a playoff game they should have won. Busy AFC West season last year.
I like the Chiefs more because, when all else on
offense is equal, you have to take the better defense. We know Rivers can pass it around the yard,
and I love what Keenan Allen might be able to do this season, but the defense
raises too many questions. Will Dwight
Freeney find his old game, and can Melvin Ingram live up to his hype? What about Brandon Flowers in the secondary,
or Eric Weddle who’s been fairly absent in recent seasons? Too many questions for me at all levels of
the D. This compares adversely to the
Chiefs, who bring a more polished running game to the table, albeit an offense
that revolves around Jamal Charles. On
defense, I can’t expect them to recreate the gaudy +18 turnover differential
from last season, but I like Justin Houston and Eric Berry to bolster it up
front. In the end, I think these teams
finish very close to one another, but out of the playoff picture.
For the Raiders, I begin to think there’s nothing to
be done. Reggie McKenzie looks like a
hatchet GM, who cleared the house of all the mildew but is going to need
another owner to really spruce things up.
He was unable to keep Jared Veldheer or Lamarr Houston, meaning both
sides of the line are weak. Not to
mention the team is starting David Carr’s brother at quarterback, a decision
that I’m betting won’t work out for them.
Maybe Maurice Jones-Drew makes this team competitive every once in a
while, but more of the same is in store for Oakland.
NFC West
1. Seahawks
(12-4)
2. 49ers
(10-6)
3. Cardinals
(8-8)
4. Rams
(5-11)
An identical finish this year to last season, but
there’s a twist. I have San Fran over
Arizona based on two things: 1.) coaching; and 2.) defensive gaps. The Cards (who won 10 games last year I will
remind you), don’t have Darnell Docket or Daryl Washington. Come to think of it, Karlos Dansby left also,
so out of the team’s main 2013 strength is zapped some energy. I also have to trust Jim Harbaugh to keep the
49ers relevant, even if I think they will fall off a little this season due to
old age on defense. Despite that, their
linebackers remain very good, and Patrick Willis is one of the top-three
linebackers in the entire league. I’ll
be curious to see what happens with the departure of Dante Whitner, but if the
Tampa struggles of Dashon Goldson are any guide, I think the defense will hold
it together.
As an added note, Arizona’s offensive situation will
be interesting this year. Is Andre
Ellington going to be the focal point?
Bruce Arians won’t say, but that hasn’t stopped me from drafting him in
fantasy. Fingers crossed.
The Rams will be a bottom of the barrel this
year. That defense is great, with the
best D-line in the league by my reckoning, but the best defense will eventually
crumble when on the field for the majority of games. And while Shaun Hill may have one of those
magical years, the Rams have such unspectacular rushers and receivers that it’s
tough to place any trust in them.
For the defending champs, I don’t have much to add
to what you are likely already reading on real sports websites. Every time I think the defense will crumble
due to less than ideal players, I remember that with a good secondary in this
league, you will always be in the game.
Everyone continues to discuss Marshawn Lynch’s possible breakdown under
the strain, but I’m not buying it.
Seattle will be back in the postseason, particularly if Percy Harvin
spends any time this season.
NFC South
1. Saints
(11-5)
2. Falcons
(10-6)
3. Buccaneers
(7-9)
4. Panthers
(6-10)
This is a pretty boring two divisions from a
predictive standpoint, mainly because I can’t fathom the Saints not winning the
division. New Orleans brings Jairus Byrd
in at safety and rookie Brandin Cooks at wide receiver. Also, they have a great secondary, as Keenan
Lewis and Kenny Vacarro put in astoundingly good seasons in 2013.
The Falcons, like the Texans, will benefit from the
NFL scheduling scheme. Julio Jones is back,
and the Falcons selected Jake Matthews as a tackle to anchor the offensive
line. I have to expect Roddy White to
improve given he’s had the offseason to be healthy. A deep football fan will tell you their pass
rush isn’t going to be enough, and that’s likely very true, but in an offensive
league I expect the Falcons to put up enough points to finish ahead of the Bucs
and Panthers.
My thoughts on Carolina remain the same as everyone
else’s. They lost most of their
receivers, Cam has a hairline rib fracture, and there’s no Jordan Gross anymore
to protect him. Add in their wholesale
replacement of the secondary (only one starter from last year’s unit left), and
if this team wants to go anywhere it will have to be on Cam’s back. I’m skeptical.
Tampa Bay brings upside to this equation, and they
are basically unpredictable right now.
Lovie Smith at coach will develop defensive players well, and a winning
season isn’t out of the question. Alterraun
Verner comes over from Tennessee after some very underrated time there (though,
he may be Nnamdi Asomugha 2.0, a guy who plays great as No. 1 corner on a bad
team and then can’t cut it elsewhere).
It’s also nice to see Michael Johnson and Gerald McCoy line up next to
each other on the D-line, meaning Tampa will have a pass rush without any
issues. But, quarterback Josh McCown is
really the guy to watch here. If he can
build rapport with both Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, the offense might
hum. I remain down on the Tampa offense,
simply because I don’t trust Lovie Smith to bring in the proper assistants to
make it all work. He never did with
Chicago, preferring to rely on defense alone.
That will cost Tampa this year.
NFC North
1. Packers
(10-6)
2. Bears
(9-7)
3. Lions
(8-8)
4. Vikings
(7-9)
Yet again, the top three teams in this division are
tough to predict. But, Aaron Rodgers and
Green Bay have the necessary tools to win the division again, provided they
keep Rodgers healthy. His absence last
year strained the defense, which still isn’t particularly good even with the
addition of Julius Peppers. Won’t be
enough however to keep this team from a division title, as quarterback is king
these days.
Like the AFC West, the two teams in the NFC North
are going to be tough for me to predict.
On the one hand, both bring large questions to this season. For Detroit, can Jim Caldwell actually prove
he’s a viable offensive coach with a quarterback other than Peyton
Manning? In Chicago, will all the
defensive signings (Lamarr Hosuton, Jared Allen) and draft picks (five of the
team’s 2014 draft) resurrect a once-fearful defense? I tend to think the Bears have the advantage
here, particularly if Jay Cutler can stay healthy for even nine games. Marc Trestman has a lot of offensive weapons
which he used marvelously last year for Josh McCown, and there’s no reason not
to think he can’t do so again with a better quarterback. The Lions may have added some weapons like
Golden Tate and Eric Ebron, and supposedly Joique Bell will receive more
carries, but the likelihood of them emerging against a healthy Cutler and
Rodgers is tough to envision, particularly when you consider they benched three
of their corners last year, and yet brought them back…
The Vikes are going to be fun. Their first stretch is Rams, Patriots,
Saints, Falcons, and Packers. All in the
first five weeks. Bill Barnwell on
Grantland thinks
they may wait until then to start Bridgewater, thereby sacrificing Matt Cassel
to the NFL schedulers in exchange for their rookie quarterback to start. Assuming the Vikings win even two of those
first games, that might not be a bad plan.
Mike Zimmer also coached at Cincy for many years, always bringing a
solid defense to the table. If he does
so again, maybe Bridgewater plays well.
I like the Vikes in 2015 to be breakout contenders, just not this year.
NFC East
1. Eagles
(9-7)
2. Redskins
(7-9)
3. Cowboys
(7-9)
4. Giants
(5-11)
The Cowboys and Giants are going to stink this year,
except Dallas will do so while scoring 28+ points a game. Their defense, which lost so much last year,
is put together like wet tissue paper, and I fully expect opposing QBs to
notice. Romo will get his stats this year,
behind a good O-line and running a decent offense, but it will be at the
expense of wins.
The Giants also inspire no confidence. As has been the case for many years, that
O-line is just miserable. It’s worse now
with Chris Snee retiring. And that’s the
issue for the Giants, who weren’t healthy last year and will need their
starters to do well. I will add,
however, that the new offense being installed in New York will relieve some
pressure on Eli Manning. He will still
have to make accurate throws and rely on his receivers to catch them. Victor Cruz will need to reappear from last
year’s hibernation to make this offense improve that dramatically.
For the Eagles, I like Chip Kelly’s offense to
continue working against NFL defenses.
It will regress a bit, just because Nick Foles isn’t necessarily talented
enough to be setting TD marks and defensive coordinators have been studying it
all summer. But, unlike past college
coaches with unique systems (such as Spurrier’s Run N’ Gun), Kelly’s initial
success tells me the offense will be just fine, particularly with the healthy
return of Jeremy Maclin. Having to play
the tough NFC West defenses will take its toll, hence maybe fewer wins, but
overall the Eagles should come out on top.
That is if they aren’t overtaken by the Redskins.
Before I begin, I will just say Kirk Cousins is not,
was not, and never will be any kind of solution at quarterback. We’ve seen him play, and his numbers for a
full season have him on pace for 30 picks.
Hyperbole perhaps, and I’m not suggesting he’d ever throw 30 picks in a
season, but if Eli Manning can throw 27 in 2013, I’m not confident the less
gifted Cousins will do well as a starter.
I am tired of hearing everyone pooh pooh RGIII in favor of a guy who has
played some games for us and, despite winning, doesn’t provide nearly the level
of talent that RGIII possesses. And yet
we are bombarded by Theismann, Fred Smoot, and other former players saying they
think Cousins should start over Griffin.
It’s as if we didn’t win the division in 2012, a
year in which RGIII had a 65 percent completion rate and 3200 yards…as a
rookie. If he plays poorly this year, I’ll
start listening, but until then I remind those kissing Cousins to give RGIII
another year.
Regarding the offense, it looks pretty excellent. DeSean Jackson was a good addition, as was Andre
Roberts. Alfred Morris may suffer due to
the lack of a zone-blocking scheme, but he continues to fall forward. On defense, I think a healthy Orakpo/Kerrigan
tandem is really what we need. The
secondary still stinks for the most part, particularly at the positions cornerback
and stupid f****** safety (Meriweather), but a good pass rush will change all
that. I remain optimistic about this
year, and I think we fall short of the playoffs with more time to build for
next season.
Lastly, I have the following:
Broncos over Patriots in AFC Championship
Saints over Seahawks in NFC Championship
Broncos over Saints in Super Bowl
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