2014 Ryder Cup

Excluding the Masters, next weekend is the best weekend in golf.  For a sport not known for premier international competition (mainly because individuals represent their country every week), the U.S.-European biannual showdown is a breath of fresh air. 

A brief reminder on the format.  During the first two days (this Friday and Saturday), there will be four matches in both the morning and afternoon.  Those matches will be either “fourballs”, where each player plays his own ball and the team takes the lowest score, or “foursomes”, in which each two man team plays one ball, alternating which player hits the shot at hand.  The last day (Sunday) will feature 12 singles matches.

Two years ago, the Europeans overcame a four point deficit to win on the last day, in the penultimate singles match of the tournament.  As such, the Euros need only 14 points to retain the Cup, whereas the U.S. needs 14.5 to win.

The honest truth is Americans haven’t been good in the past few iterations of this tournament.  Of the last nine Cups, the U.S. has won two.  That doesn’t diminish, however, how close the team came in 2012, losing only due to exceptional putting by the Euros and some very poor play by one or two Americans (Brandt Snedeker was beaten handily by a Scottish guy who last won a major in 1997).  But, only one point has separated these teams in the past two competitions, meaning the level of play is at its highest ever.

Without much ado, here are the rosters, with world rankings in parentheses and the asterisk denoting a captain’s pick:

Team USA                                                      Team Europe

Keegan Bradley (26)*                                    Thomas Bjorn (30)

Rickie Fowler  (10)                                        Jamie Donaldson (28)

Jim Furyk (5)                                                  Victor Dubuisson (23)

Zach Johnson (16)                                          Stephen Gallacher (34)*

Matt Kuchar (9)                                              Sergio Garcia (3)

Hunter Mahan (21)*                                       Martin Kaymer (12)

Phil Mickelson (11)                                        Graeme McDowell (18)

Patrick Reed (27)                                            Rory McIlroy (1)

Webb Simpson (33)*                                      Ian Poulter (37)*

Jordan Spieth (13)                                           Justin Rose (6)

Jimmy Walker (19)                                         Henrik Stenson (4)

Bubba Watson  (7)                                          Lee Westwood (41)*

Some notes are obvious.  First, Tiger isn’t here, so many casual fans won’t tune in (this despite Woods’ poor play at almost every Ryder Cup).  The other is the disparity in the World Rankings.  The U.S. does not have three of the top five players in the world, and their highest-ranked player is a dude in his early 40s.  You will also notice, however, that Captain Tom Watson has picked guys who are respectably ranked in the world, whereas the European captain’s picks are towards the bottom of the table.

But, there is the disparity in recent form on the European side.  McIlroy speaks for himself after a huge year winning two majors, and Kaymer lapped the U.S. Open field back in June.  And Garcia, who competed in all the majors this year, also brings good form to this weekend.  Let’s not forget Justin Rose (who, for my money, was the guy that won the Cup in 2012), who won in Scotland in July and in DC in June.  It turns out Jamie Donaldson won at the end of August in the Czech Republic.

By contrast, the U.S. comes in with only one recent winner in Hunter Mahan.  Some are playing well.  Rickie Fowler and Jim Furyk come to mind as the guys playing the best.  Since the U.S. Open, Fowler has finished outside the top-10 only once in the seven tournaments he’s played.  I should add Fowler was top-5 in every major this year.  Or how about Jim Furyk, who has top-10 finishes in four of his last five tournaments?  Furyk also has some added motivation, given that he lost a key match in 2012 that he truthfully could have won with some slightly better putting.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the Americans doesn’t much improve.  Bubba Watson has only one top-five in his last six tournaments, and missed the cut at the Open Championship, which doesn’t bode well for his game on a links(ish) course like Gleaneagles (terminology help: a links course has very few trees and lots of tall grass, meaning a wayward drive can be a huge issue to overcome.  They are normally played in high wind, meaning a lower ball trajectory is needed.  Gleneagles won’t require that, but the lack of trees will still be there).  How about Phil, who after a riveting finish to the PGA Championship has finished 78, tied for 45, and withdrew in his last three tournaments, respectively?  Zach Johnson, more of a finesse player, hasn’t had a top ten since July.

As with many Ryder Cups, I think the respective captain’s picks will be the key factor.  While European captain Paul McGinley decided not to choose former world number one Luke Donald, his decision to include the other Englishmen Poulter and Westwood is likely to play dividends.  Poulter is gaudy at this venue, and has somehow gained 12 points in the 15 Ryder Cup matches he’s ever played.  He’s also won seven such matches in a row.  Lee Westwood is also a good choice for my money, in that he’s played 37 Ryder Cup matches in his career, and knows how best to navigate the team dynamic.  I won’t lie, I don’t know anything about Steven Gallacher, and I expect him to maybe be the guy who doesn’t play very much until Sunday.

For the Americans, Tom Watson emphasized experience.  Honestly, Billy Horschel or Chris Kirk have played better than Bradley and Simpson.  I think they would have contributed more, but both were on the 2012 team.  While I despise the following statements, Watson must be banking on those guys to come hungry and grind it out to make up for the 2012 defeat.  I don’t love Mahan, who was left off the 2012 roster, but he comes in having won at The Barclays.  His finishes since then have been woeful (64, T-59, T-23), but he has experience at this level, which might prove useful.

Overall, there should be some fascinating teams this week.  Mickelson and Bradley were a force in 2012, and Watson will have to pair them together again.  I think he will also put Fowler with Phil, given their obvious chemistry at the PGA earlier in August.  I’m curious as to what Watson does with Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth.  The latter is a rookie here, who would benefit from some kind of veteran presence to keep him level, much like the U.S. did in the President’s Cup last year.  He and Bubba played in the same group at The Masters, and I could see Zach Johnson working well with Spieth.  Patrick Reed is also young, but he is known to get frustrated on the golf course.  He might be the ideal teammate for Kuchar, who’s more laid back and easy going.  You can also expect the Southern boys Bubba and Webb to be together, after they went 2-1 in 2010. 

For the Euros, most teams can be seen from afar.  Ian Poulter and Justin Rose won both their foursomes matches in 2012, so it’s a good bet they play together at least once.  You should also expect McIlroy and McDowell to team up, as they’ve paired up six times in the Ryder Cup.  Sergio might be without an obvious dance partner, but I’d place good money on pairing him with Westwood, as they’ve had success in prior Ryder Cups.  Those are the obvious ones, and it will be curious to see what McGinley does with Martin Kaymer, who has played with both Rose and Westwood but might be good enough to shepherd his own twosome with one of the rookies.  For the other guys, it’s anybody’s guess.  The two Scandinavians (Bjorn and Stenson) might make a good tandem, but there’s no real certainty.

Overall, I am excited for this weekend.  I think despite the European dominance from a numbers standpoint, the U.S. has put together a solid roster that doesn’t really have any glaring holes, a marked improvement over 2012 when Steve Stricker and Tiger were both there.  I’m worried about Patrick Reed in team format and about Bradley in the singles matches, but otherwise this is a roster that can win.

Notice the word “can.”  I don’t think they will.  I bet it’s a two point victory, at least, for the Euros, and we will be forced to come back in two years to Hazeltine for another shot.