Thanksgiving is typically a magic date on the NHL
calendar. By now, about a quarter of the
season has elapsed, teams have shaken off the rust, and identities are decently
formed going into the rest of the season.
With that, it’s time to reassess some of the landscape, and there are a
few things of note going into “American Thanksgiving.”
You’ll
see them in June
Tampa Bay Lightning
(14-6-2; 30 points)Losing defenseman Victor Hedman looked like it might be an issue for this team earlier in the season, but it doesn’t appear to be a problem thus far. Steven Stamkos is second in goals, while Tyler Johnson has started a career year so it would seem. The top-six forwards have all contributed, and the Lightning hold the third-highest goal differential in the league. The defense might not be otherworldly without Hedman, but with the offense going so great, who cares? Expect this team to be in the second round of the playoffs, at least.
Pittsburgh Penguins
(13-4-2; 28 points)
Chugga chug chug.
The Penguins train continues regular season dominance. The stats for this team are good across the
board: first in goals-per-game, sixth in goals-against-per-game, tops in the
power play and top-5 in penalty killing.
Unsurprisingly, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are near the top of the
points race. One thing to note: with
Pascal Dupuis going down due to blood clots, Pittsburgh will need to replace
him on their special teams units. That
might dent the top-six production, but I wouldn’t expect much to change until
the playoffs.
Anaheim Ducks
(13-4-5; 31 points)
After rattling off seven straight wins early in the
season, the Ducks have gone through dry spells since then. But, with unbelievable blue-line contributions
from Sami Vatanen (5 goals, 13 assists), the Ducks have been able to overcome
some goalie woes. John Gibson, the
presumed future goalie, went down early with an injury, leaving Fredrik
Andersen and Jason LaBarbera to fill in.
Once Gibson comes back, this team will look better.
St. Louis Blues
(14-6-1; 29 points)
The Blues are a serious Western Conference
contender. They are third in
goals-against-per-game and have the third-best power play unit. Their younger guys, such as Tarasenko,
Schwartz, and Lehtera make the Blues quite likely the deepest team in the
West. Add in Brian Elliott’s fourth-best
save percentage, and the Blues seem to be well set for the season going forward.
Chicago Blackhawks
(12-8-1; 25 points)
They don’t have as many points compared to the teams
mentioned above, but Chicago is one of the top teams in the league this
year. Seventh in goals-per-game, third
in goals-against-avergae, and tops in the penalty kill mean Chicago has all the
makings of a top team. Their play of
late bears this out, as they have won six of their last eight. According to the advanced stats, Chicago is
the best team in the league regarding possession, and have the highest
percentage of offensive zone faceoffs in the league (39.2%). The Hawks are really good and if they
maintain this, they will be right there at the end.
They’ll
Be There, but Will They Be Good?
Montreal Canadiens
(16-6-1; 33 points)
The Canadiens are helped right now after winning 8
of their last 10 games, but the numbers seem to dictate that they will taper
off going forward. Montreal is only 21st
in goals per game and 26th in power play production. In short, you have to wonder if they have
enough offense to keep this up. It helps
having Carey Price in net, and the team is humming as of late, but those two
losses in their last ten have been blowouts to Pittsburgh and the Rangers. The Canadiens may yet have a ways to go.
New York Islanders
(14-6; 28 points)
Third in the league as far as goals-per-game, the
Islanders are a surprise being this high in the standings. A large part of their success can be
explained on the road, where their 8 wins are tied for most in the entire
league. The addition of Johnny Boychuk
has worked out quite well, as his almost 22 minutes of ice time and +7 rating
point quite clearly to his contribution in improving this team. John Tavares and Brock Nelson have also
started hot, and recently the Islanders swept a home-and-away with the
Pens. That said, the combined 90.91 save
percentage for this team is 23rd in the league, so even with
advanced stats in their favor (top-five in possession numbers), the Isles may
need better long-term goaltending in case the offense suddenly dries up.
Boston Bruins
(13-9; 26 points)
The physically imposing Bruins teams we’ve expected
largely hasn’t been present this year, primarily due to losing Zdeno Chara
earlier in the season. Unfortunately,
the Bruins have lost further starters to injury, like David Krejci and Adam
McQuaid. But, the team has held on
rather well, sitting 11th in goals-against-per-game. Tuukka Rask also continues to be an elite
goalie, so once he has NHLers and not AHLers on his defense, the team will be
better. The Bruins would be
well-advised, however, to focus on their chief competition in the
Atlantic. Thus far, Boston has lost all
three meetings with Montreal, and they haven’t been very close.
Vancouver Canucks
(14-6-1; 29 points)
A year after drama in British Columbia, the Canucks
have rebounded nicely, and are second in the Pacific, no mean feat given some of
other teams there. The Sedin twins
appear to have found a kindred spirit in Radim Vrbata, as that line has 58
points combined. The biggest concern
might actually be goalie Ryan Miller, who has not posted elite-level numbers
that everyone assumes he will produce each season. A .904 save percentage isn’t going to do very
much for anyone at this point, and it seems his reputation continues to
overshadow his actual performance.
Nashville Predators
(13-5-2; 28 points)
When boasting the best goalie this year, life gets
fun. Pekka Rinne, after missing most of
last season with a hip injury, has a goals-against-average under two and a save
percentage of .930. Any way you slice
it, Nashville has benefitted dramatically from his return. The youngsters are also contributing for
them, as Filip Forsberg has emerged this year, with 22 points already. His unbelievable +20 rating is certainly one
of the bigger surprises of this season, but the Preds have been very good. A big question going forward is what will
happen with the special teams units, which are near the bottom in both power
play and penalty killing.
Minnesota Wild
(12-8-0; 24 points)
Minnesota is a darling of the advanced stats
community, as they are near the top in possession numbers and don’t appear
(mathematically, at least) to be overachieving.
Zach Parise continues to show how valuable he is to any squad, and Nino
Niederreiter has contributed in ways not truly expected before the season. There’s lots of room, though, for
improvement. Prized offseason
acquisition Thomas Vanek has scored one goal in 20 games, and needs to score
more. Also, the Wild have a low save
percentage, but Darcy Kuemper seems to be righting the ship. If there is more done to bolster the offense,
even slightly, Minnesota will be in good shape.
Los Angeles Kings
(11-6-4; 26 points)
Jekyll and Hyde.
The Kings are 10-2-1 at home (best in the league), and 1-4-3 on the
road. That large a disparity is worrisome, but LA has made a habit of slow
starts and being unbeatable when it counts.
Still, I don’t love the slow start by some of their stalwarts, such as
Kopitar, Justin Williams, and especially Marian Gaborik and Dustin Brown. Without the gaudy save percentage of .932
that Jonathan Quick currently sports, it’s likely the Kings would be deep in a
hole. If they could win a few road
games, things will even out, but the trend now is a touch disturbing.
Advanced
Stats Love ‘Em
Washington Capitals
(9-8-3; 21 points)
Based on a few key markers, the Caps should be much
better. Their possession numbers are in
the top-12, and the Caps have the third highest percentage of their faceoffs in
the offensive zone. They have the second
fewest percentage of faceoffs in their own zone, meaning Washington should have
a much better record than this. And the
reason they don’t is goaltending. Braden
Holtby hasn’t been good. His save
percentage is a respectable .915, but Holtby has given up a remarkable number
of soft goals thus far in the season.
His backup, Justin Peters, has been similarly unhelpful (his save
percentage is .882, which is equivalent to running a 9-minute mile at the
Olympics). If there’s an area that must
get better, it’s in goal. Otherwise,
advanced stats or not, the Caps will be very low on the playoff totem and might
even be outside of it in June.
Advanced
Stats Hate ‘Em
Calgary Flames
(13-7-2; 28 points)
I’m not sure I can underestimate how much advanced
stats says the Flames will not only taper off, but rather leap headlong over a
statistical cliff. They have the highest
shooting percentage in the league (over 10% of their shots are going in),
meaning they are really lucky – the median is 7.9 percent. In addition, the Flames have had the fewest
percentage of their faceoffs in the offensive zone at 27 percent. Lastly, their possession numbers (which aren’t
easily explained) are bottom-five, with terrible teams like Buffalo Ottawa, and
Colorado.
This is almost a repeat of the Avalanche last year,
who had a great shooting percentage and somehow defied advanced stats to win their
division. Rabid Dibbles and Bits readers
will remember I predicted the Flames to go far in the future, but this year
seems too early.
The
Alleged Mess
Toronto Maple Leafs
(11-8-2; 24 points)
I’ve recently learned just how much the Canadian
market focuses on the Leafs. They are by
no means the mess that is being portrayed by much of the Canadian media right
now. They remain very much in the
picture, and honestly the change going forward must come in net. James Reimer has played nine games, and
boasts a save percentage below the magic 90 percent. That’s terrible, and clearly there needs to
be something done in net for the Leafs. Despite
goal being a big issue, Toronto right now is not necessarily a playoff
team. Less than 30 percent of their
face-offs are in the offensive zone, and their advanced possession numbers
indicate a team that does not do well with the puck. But, at fourth in goals-per-game, maybe all
that is irrelevant.
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