NHL Second Round

It’s bittersweet to have the first round end, since I’ve just watched hockey over the last two and a half weeks.  But it’s time to look at the final eight teams and see what the matchups are like.

The West

Anaheim Ducks vs. Calgary Flames

The Ducks are the only team to have swept their first round opposition, overcoming the Jets after four fairly tough games.  Their presence in the second round should come as no surprise to anyone (though I did pick the Jets in seven).  The biggest reason the Ducks are so rested is their big guys showed up in the first round.  Corey Perry, the sniper for the Ducks, had three goals and seven points in the Winnipeg series.  The Ducks also beat a team that brought heavy physical play to the table, meaning they should feel more comfortable after struggling with teams of a similar model in the past.

For the Flames, the destiny train keeps rolling on.  Thought to be competing for a lottery slot when the season started, Calgary has continued to overcome a less talented roster to win when it counts.  Their series win over Vancouver was surprising not only for its sheer existence but also because it was done without heavy contributions from the top line of Gaudreau, Hudler, and Monahan early on.  By the end of the series, those guys showed up, but they’ll need to be humming early if they’d like to beat the Ducks.

One guy to watch will be Jonas Hiller, the goaltender for Calgary who was a member of the three-headed hydra at this time last year in Anaheim.  He was a big factor in the Vancouver series, and easily can steal games.  In fact, he’ll likely need to for Calgary to beat a team as talented as the Ducks.

Another factor will be the rough stuff.  Lots of pundits won’t mention this right now, since it’s difficult to predict, but the Flames brought their heavy bodies to bear against Vancouver.  Specifically, Michael Ferland and Deryk Engelland are intimidating presences, and Calgary’s game depends on aggressive forechecking.  The Ducks meanwhile do have some nastiness in them, so I’d bet there is some rough stuff in this series.

Prediction: Ducks in six.  That’s the stock prediction from most media analysts right now, and there’s good reason for that.  The Flames have shown resilience the entire season, so while the rosters on paper point to a very short series, two Calgary wins are an easy thing to imagine.  My eyes will be on Fredrik Andersen in net.  While he played well against Anaheim, it’s easy to lose sight of him, but given the closeness with which Calgary plays, he’ll have to shut down their offensive chances to allow his boys time to play with a lead.

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Minnesota Wild

For the third straight postseason, the Wild and Blackhawks will meet.  Chicago has won each of those meetings, but this year’s Wild has been the best team in the last three months. 

You may remember I discussed Devan Dubnyk before the first round.  Dubnyk survived a shellacking against the Blues, and quickly rebounded with a near-perfect performance the next game.  That toughness will take him far against a Blackhawks team that perennially competes for the Cup.  Other than Dubnyk, however, the Wild will need production from Zach Parise.  He’s their most talented offensive player and came up with some clutch goals to help the Wild beat the top seeded Blues.  Over the past two seasons, Parise has been held by the Blackhawks to some very pedestrian numbers in the playoffs.  If that changes, Minnesota will be in this.

For Chicago, the first question will be in net.  Corey Crawford is a Cup-winning goalie, but was benched in the last series for backup Scott Darling, who had himself a wonderful series all around.  Crawford looked nervous and shaky, but he’s back in goal for Game 1.  He’ll be on a short leash, so we might not see him for long if he struggles.  One bad game by Crawford might allow the Wild to steal one, which will be critical in a tough series.

Patrick Kane returned gloriously in the first round.  He’s a sparkplug and will have a large effect on the series.  Bryan Bickell, a name I bet no one has really heard of who’s reading right now, has been a barnstorm against the Wild.  In 23 games against Minnesota during the past three years (both regular season and playoffs), he has 15 goals and five assists.  Admittedly, many of those are dirty, go-to-the-net goals, but his contribution has been massive.  If Minny wants to win, they need to shut that guy down.

Prediction: Wild in seven.  Minnesota has more depth than in prior years, and I expect they will victimize some of the lower defensive pairings for the Blackhawks.  While Chicago still brings the vaunted Duncan Keith – Brent Seabrook pairing, their defense has an aging Kimmo Timonen on it.  In addition, if the Crawford/Darling show continues as it did in the first round against Nashville, the Wild might be able to take advantage.  One thing I will say: one of these games goes to double OT.

The East

Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Both teams come in after two very tough series.  Montreal won in six over Ottawa, but don’t be fooled they were played extremely close and needed every bit of Carey Price to win.

That’s really what this series comes down to.  Price is the best goalie in the world and probably the best player too.  Tampa comes in after a hard-fought series in which they needed their own goalie to step up.  Ben Bishop just shut out the Red Wings in an elimination game, and while Montreal won in the first round they lack the kind of offensive sparkle that Detroit has.  I think Bishop will be key in this series, and he comes in at a great time.

Which is important, because Tampa Bay is not humming on all cylinders.  Their cannon, Steven Stamkos, has three goals in his past 17 games played.  There has been some speculation that he has a bad injury, but it might just be that he’s gripping the stick a little too tight.  In his stead, the “Triplets” line emerged in the first round.  Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and Ondrej Palat were by far the best Tampa line all year, with Johnson the key cog after six goals in the first series. 

One thing I should note is that Tampa has psychological impetus here.  They were swept unceremoniously last postseason, in a series that had lots of hype but ended up with a whimper.  I bet they want to make this into a referendum on last year’s performance, so there’s some fun storyline there.

Prediction: Canadiens in seven.  I think after a tough effort against Detroit the Lightning will be right there against their Atlantic Division rivals.   This series looks to be a toss-up between the red lines, meaning I have to lean with the better goalie.  One thing that could change this is if either team gets their power play going (both are among the bottom three for playoff teams), particularly Tampa with the offensive firepower.  In addition, my pick bucks the season trend.  The Lightning won all five games against Montreal this season, and all in regulation.  It looks to me like a different Tampa team right now, but they have that advantage as well.  Still, tough to bet against Price, especially after I did so last round and lost.

New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals

For the fourth time in five years, the Caps and Rangers meet in the playoffs.

Personally, I’m tired of these matchups, mainly because the Rangers have our number.  Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to have changed too much, despite the obvious defensive improvement and increased physicality that’s been added to the Capitals’ game. 

While special teams will factor into the other series, it will be most important here.  The Caps had the best power play over the course of the season, but went cold in their first round tilt with the Islanders.  The Rangers have also gone cold in the playoffs.  But the true key stat for the Caps was their perfect penalty killing record in the first round, and that they only took two penalties per game on average.  That’s good discipline, especially in the playoffs.  My pessimism tells me that won’t continue, as the Rick Nash-led power play for the Rangers will have to reach its stride eventually, but if the Caps can avoid penalties again, they should be in this.

By now, many of the rosters are known.  One addition is Evgeny Kuznetsov, who had a dynamite first round not just in number of goals but in when they were scored.  His game-winner in Game 7 was a thing of sheer beauty, and his performance in Game 5 was critical for a blowout victory (expect none of those in this next series, by the way).  The Rangers will bring back Kevin Klein on defense, who had a very good year.  One notable injury for New York is Mats Zuccarello, who took a slap shot to the face during the first round against the Penguins.  He is speedy and gets under the skin of other players.  Losing him will affect the way New York plays, but speed is elsewhere on their roster in spades, particularly in Chris Krieder.

The goalies will be a focus.  Henrik Lundqvist surrendered eight goals in five games against the Penguins, so he seems to be in top form.  For the Caps, Braden Holtby was solid in the last series, but gave up what we hope is an aberrant bad goal in Game 7.  He’ll need to tie that down and play with poise he’s shown all season.

Prediction: Rangers in seven.  I want to pick my guys here, and this will be a close series, likely filled with unsurprising heartbreak for all Washington fans at one or multiple points.  If the Caps want to win, goals from Ovie will be key, particularly on the road at Madison Square Garden.  The Rangers have a good offense, but getting to Lundqvist will change the entire structure of the series.  I just don’t see it happening, unfortunately.