It’s that time.
For the next two months or so, the sports world will deal with the NHL
playoffs. Or not deal with them, given
how little most sports fan pay attention to them (particularly when competing
with the NBA playoffs), but this author knows the great from the colossally
unwatchable-til-the-Finals and thus prefers to focus on the NHL.
First, it’s been a weird season. The defending Cup champions in LA didn’t make
the playoffs this year, done in by some plucky Canadian teams and an abysmal
middle portion of the season.
Furthermore, the star-charged Penguins are the lowest Eastern Conference
seed coming into the playoffs, a wholly unexpected development that brings
obscene amounts of joy to anyone with a heart, brain, or moral code.
But the best part of the season was the
goaltending. Carey Price in Montreal had
one heck of a year, good enough to almost undoubtedly win the trophy as the
MVP. But he really hasn’t been the
story. What about Cam Talbot in New York,
a backup goalie who played his college hockey in the frozen hockey fanaticism
of…Alabama? He backstopped the best team
in the league with a record of 17-4-3.
Or how about Andrew Hammond in Ottawa?
More on him to come, but a fantastic story that you won’t want to
miss. Another good goaltending story
comes from Minnesota, with the inexplicable rise of Devan Dubnyk, who went from
playing for four teams last year to deserving a spot on the MVP ballot. (more on him to come as well).
It’s been a good one, but here are the playoff
matchups:
The
East
New York Rangers – Pittsburgh Penguins
Pittsburgh has been in freefall the last month or
so, and needed to beat the Sabres (the worst team in the league) just to
guarantee a spot in the playoffs. They
are rewarded with the Rangers, who set franchise records for wins and points
this season.
It’s very difficult to bet against Sidney Crosby and
the other young talent the Penguins have, but they have been decimated by
injuries this year. Kris Letang, their
chief defenseman, had a wonderful season before being lost to a concussion for
the entirety of the postseason.
Considering their loss of Olli Maata and Christian Ehrhoff during the
season, Pittsburgh is in a spot of bother.
The Rangers have several weapons, not the least of
which is King Henrik in goal. He’s fully
healthy after a break this year. Rick
Nash also scored 40+ goals during the season, and appears to have put last
year’s postseason yips behind him.
One thing to watch in this series will be the play
of Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.
He’s been under fire in past years during the playoffs, but had a .920
save percentage this season and retains the “hot goalie” ability to carry his
team in the playoffs.
Prediction:
Rangers in five. I bet Fleury steals one
game for them, but it’s too difficult to trust a team that hasn’t scored more
than three goals in 15 consecutive games.
Ottawa Senators – Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens competed for the Presidents’ Cup for
most of the season, and showed remarkable ability to stay clear of the Lightning
and win the Atlantic. But their prize is
the hottest team in the NHL. Ottawa
finished the season on a 21-3-3 run, and has been effectively playing
elimination hockey for the past three weeks.
Carey Price is the league MVP, but Andrew Hammond is
the most surprising story from the league this year. Midway through the season, it was debatable
if he could play at all at the minor league level. Thanks to a mix of injuries, Hammond was
tapped in February as the starter. He has a 20-1-2 record since then, with a
save percentage of .941 (Hint for non-hockey fans: those numbers are otherworldly). He’s going to be the main story in this
series, but Ottawa has some help behind him.
Craig Anderson was a finalist for the Vezina trophy not too long ago,
and could provide security for the team if Hammond falters or finds his
unbelievable luck is at an end.
For the Canadiens, there are questions. They are 20th in goals per game,
and their leading scorer Max Pacioretty is coming off a concussion sustained in
the last two weeks. On the flip side,
Carey Price is the best goalie in the world by a significant margin, and he has
the ability to totally shut the door and bring his team to victory. Montreal also has P.K. Subban on defense,
who had a great regular season.
If there’s a guy you don’t know who might factor in
this series, it’s rookie Mark Stone.
Since March 1, Stone has 25 points, including 11 goals. He’s on a tear, and if he continues then
he’ll be tough to beat.
Prediction:
Senators in seven. No one wants to pick
against Price, and this is the trendy pick by NHL analysts (if anything about
hockey can be considered trendy). But
when looking at how Ottawa has played of late, they have the edge here. Should be a bruising series I’d wager, as
there was a serious
brawl last time they played in the postseason.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Detroit Red Wings
This is probably the series I have the least to say
about. The Lightning, despite a Cup to
their name, don’t have much name recognition nationally, and the Red Wings came
sorta close to missing the playoffs entirely.
I also don’t think this series will be terribly
close. For all the talent Detroit has,
particularly in its veterans Henrik Zetterburg and Pavel Datsyuk, the question
dogging the Wings is in goal. Jimmy
Howard has been a presence for them in recent years, but he struggled mightily
this year, so much so that he’s been replaced.
Petr Mrazek will start for the Wings in net, a choice that makes sense
given Mrazek’s play of late, but may create confidence issues for the entire
team if he struggles
On the Tampa side, they are a legitimate Cup contender. Ben Bishop has no postseason experience, but
with a .920 save percentage this year, he’s an elite level goalie. The other big name is Steven Stamkos, a 40+
goal scorer who could easily have 55 goals during this season. But what separates Tampa from other Eastern
teams is the depth, particularly the Johnson-Kucherov-Palat line. They aren’t media-worthy yet, but that trio
is offensively and defensively sound.
Johnson has been something of a revelation, an undrafted free agent who
plays on one of the best lines in the game.
Prediction:
Lightning in five. For one, I’m not sure
who’s playing defense for the Wings these days.
For two, it seems unlikely Datsyuk is fully healthy (even by playoff
standards) given a bevy of injuries this year.
Finally, Tampa has something of a fire to win this series after coming
out completely flat against the Canadiens last postseason.
Washington Capitals – New York Islanders
Many of the key matchups here are how forwards and
defensemen match together. Obviously,
the Ovie train needs to be derailed if the Islanders want to have any shot to
win, but don’t sleep on John Tavares. He
isn’t a household name among unconventional hockey fans, but easily was in play
for the MVP award this year.
Of large concern for the Caps will be Tavares’
play. He scores goals and facilitates
very well, in much the same way Sidney Crosby works with his teammates. He’s also a very polished player these days,
and with Kyle Okposo back in the lineup New York has a dynamic offense.
So do the Caps, especially on the power play. That will be a huge area of focus for DC, as
the Caps boast the best power play unit in the league and the Islanders are in
the bottom five when it comes to killing penalties. That may be a challenge, however, as the Islanders
goalies Jaroslav Halak had a career year en route to 38 wins.
A very interesting note of this series will be not
only the goalie play but also the physicality of postseason hockey,
particularly around the crease.
Everybody enjoys the shoving in the crease, except the goalies. Braden Holtby for DC and Halak have been two
of the most used goalies in the NHL this year.
Holtby comes in having made 25 consecutive starts (a good thing
considering Justin Peters), so mental exhaustion may be a real concern for both
coaches coming in.
Prediction:
Capitals in seven. It seems to me the
Caps have been outplaying the Isles for a while now, and unlike prior years
this Caps team can close the door on a close game late in the 3rd
period. That said, it will still come
down to offense, and DC will need scoring behind the top line. Brouwer, Laich, Johansson, Kuznetsov, Ward,
Chimera, and others will need to show up throughout the entire postseason if we
want to see a deep run. Seems like a
slog of a series with evenly matched teams.
The
West
Anaheim Ducks – Winnipeg Jets
This will be a series of young goalies, first and
foremost. Ondrej Pavelec is
much-maligned, and with good reason, but he’s backstopped the Jets admirably in
the last month or so. He’s 9-2-1 in his
last 12 starts and only allowed more than two goals three times. For Anaheim, Fredrik Andersen is 4-1 in his
five starts leading up to the playoffs , but this is the same guy who lost his
starting job in the postseason last year.
Winnipeg is a lot like the Los Angeles Kings – tough
hockey up the middle and a ferocious approach to a physical presence. The Ducks have dealt with that a lot over the
past few years, so they should be reasonably prepared to see this Winnipeg
team. One player who might tip the
scales for Anaheim is Ryan Kesler, who came over from Vancouver in a trade and
makes it much tougher to defend the Ducks, particularly in the faceoff
circle. He has a wealth of big-game
experience and a feisty personality. I’d
expect him to be around the goal mouth a fair amount.
There is an intangible at play here. The Ducks have been a great regular season team
since Bruce Boudreau showed up, but haven’t been able to make any sort of dent
in the playoffs. While you shouldn’t
expect a team this talented to stay down forever when it counts, Ryan Getzlaf
and Corey Perry will need to answer those questions eventually.
Prediction:
Ducks in seven. I expect a bruising
series, but the Jets have easily the best home-ice crowd in the league. Tickets for their games were gone in five
minutes, and Winnipeg has waited since the mid-90s for a return to playoff
hockey. The Ducks are a better team, but
I can’t help but feel they will need the full runway to beat the Jets.
Calgary Flames – Vancouver Canucks
No one has any clue how the Flames are in this
spot. They were predicted at the
beginning of the season to contend for last place in the league, but made it
into the final tournament. They are the
team this year that doesn’t fit any of the advanced metrics. Their advanced stats are really bad and their
talent level looks woefully short on paper compared to other playoff teams.
That said, they’ve kept winning, defying any and all
conventional wisdom to get this far.
Their fans will tell you it’s through plucky determination, grit,
chemistry, and a whole bunch of clichés.
One of their defenseman set the single season record for blocked shots
this season, so maybe those clichés have some merit.
Vancouver is another somewhat surprising entrant,
especially after their implosion last year.
But the Sedin twins had a great year, particularly after the
introduction of Radim Vrbata to the lineup for secondary scoring. The real news for the Canucks will be in
goal. Ryan Miller came over in the
offseason to great fanfare, but got hurt in February and has only just
returned. His backup (yup, another one),
Eddie Lack, has played very well in the meantime, but a goaltending controversy
is almost guaranteed with this team, considering Miller’s pedigree.
For the Flames, the key players will be Sean Monahan
and Johnny Gaudreau. Monahan potted 31
goals this season and Gaudreau might be the most fun player in hockey,
especially given his diminutive size (5’9”).
In goal, the Flames will likely run with a two-headed attack. Jonas Hiller has shown flashes this year,
while Karri Ramo has provided a more consistent presence, but the Flames have
been flying by the seat of their pants for long enough to where this won’t be
too debilitating.
Prediction: Canucks in six. It is too much to assume the Flames will keep
up their overachieving ways, especially when the last team to have their
advanced stats profile (last year’s Avalanche) sputtered in the playoffs. Plus the Sedins are back, and Calgary will
struggle to contain them.
St. Louis Blues – Minnesota Wild
The Western Conference provides another great
matchup here. The Wild have been one of
the best teams league-wide since mid-January.
The Blues, in the same vein, played a complete season and were one of
the best from top to bottom.
Minnesota will revolve around goalie Devan
Dubnyk. The mid-January trade for him
saved the Wild season and, quite likely, the jobs of several Minnesota front
office members. He has started 39
straight games, so there is something of a concern that he might start wearing
down from the postseason mental exhaustion.
But nothing indicates that process will start anytime soon. In addition to Dubnyk, the Wild have Zach
Parise to provide a scoring touch and veteran leadership. Ryan Suter is also their chief D-man, and he’s
one of the best in the league.
The Blues, meanwhile, bring one of the best
defensive units to the table. Kevin
Shattenkirk and Jay Bouwmeester are the main cogs, but overall the group is
solid from top to bottom. On the forward
side, David Backes is one of the best two-way players in the game, and Vladimir
Tarasenko and Alexander Steen are substantially underrated when taken
together. The star power on this team
won’t blow anyone away on paper, but they are relatively complete.
As with so many teams, the Blues have goaltending
questions. Brian Elliott has been pretty
good this year, but not good enough to lock down the starting job. Jake Allen is a fine goalie, but the bigger
point is the team appears to have little confidence in either. I expect to see both during the playoffs.
Prediction: Wild in seven. This will be the best series of the round, by
far. Both teams enter on strong streaks,
and their respective strengths will make for a tug-of-war. But I think Dubnyk will change this series,
and a tough series will end with a Wild win.
Chicago Blackhawks – Nashville Predators
Another wonderful matchup courtesy of the Central
division. For much of the year, these
were two of the West’s favorites for the Cup.
The Predators in particular looked unbeatable for a good chunk of time,
and Chicago had all their stars humming for portions of the season.
But both teams have also looked beatable. Nashville enters this series as losers of six
straight, resulting in them losing the Central crown to St. Louis. The Hawks have been better lately, but still
have looked sorta off at points this year.
The main players in this series will be familiar to
many. Patrick Kane returns for Chicago
from a broken collarbone, but how healthy is he? The other for Nashville is Pekka Rinne, the
Finnish goalie who is, for my money, the best player the Predators have. Nashville’s defensive corps is also an
important factor. Shea Weber and Roman
Josi are an elite pairing, and the youngster Seth Jones has played well in his
first NHL season. I also like Cody
Franson, a big guy the Preds got from Toronto prior to the trade deadline.
But how does that unit match up with the Jonathan
Toews, Marian Hossa, and other stars the Blackhawks have on their roster? Chicago also knows how to win in this
environment, given they were a triple overtime goal away from the Cup Finals
last year after winning it all in 2012.
They also added Antoine Vermette this year to bolster their already deep
center corps, so Nashville will need to button down the middle to have a chance
in this series.Prediction: Chicago in six. A Nashville win would be good for the sport, I think, as Nashville deserves recognition for its surprising run, but Chicago is the tried and true playo
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