Monday, May 18, 2015

Conference Finals and the Caps Offseason


Chicago Blackhawks v. Anaheim Ducks

I had the Blackhawks losing last round, but they made me look totally foolish by sweeping the Wild.  The Ducks, meanwhile, might be the best team thus far in the playoffs, having lost only one game.  That said, they’ve had by far the easiest road to this point.

At this stage, series inevitably revolve around goaltending.  For the Hawks and Ducks, there are some wrinkles.  First, for Chicago, Corey Crawford had a rough first round but started all four games of the Wild series.  He’s also a Cup winner, but he needs to not revert to first-round form against the talented Ducks roster.  For Anaheim, Fredrik Andersen has been good enough, which is to say he has let his team flash its offensive prowess in front of him without being a sieve.  His stats look good, no doubt, but I remain a bit skeptical given his competition thus far and the gaudy 3.9 goals averaged by the Ducks this postseason.

Offense remains key for Anaheim.  Corey Perry has posted 15 points in the playoffs, along with goals at some very key moments.  For the Blackhawks, their superstar Patrick Kane has defied expectations in not only returning early from an injury but also producing at a high level.  Chicago has another worry on the back end, however, after Michal Roszival broke his ankle in the second round and is out.  They will now look to Kimmo Timonen and Davind Rundblad, both of whom played in Game 1 on Sunday.  I remain deeply skeptical Timonen has much left in the tank, so it will be interesting if coach Joel Quenneville breaks up the awesome Oduya-Hjalmarsson pairing to bring more balance across all three lines.

As a final note, two of the best two-way centers are playing in this series.  Jonathan Toews for Chicago, and Ryan Kesler from Anaheim.  Kesler will likely slot against the Kane line, which should be a fun matchup and will lead to plenty of shoving matches.  Toews is expected to match up with the Getzlaf-Perry line, which is bound to be entertaining.

Prediction: Ducks in seven.  They are better rested and bring more goal scoring depth to the picture.  Matt Belesky, Jacob Silfverberg, and Kyle Palmieri all can score goals, which in the end will overwhelm the Hawks.  But it will be tough, and I expect this series to go the distance.

Tampa Bay Lightning v. New York Rangers

In a matchup between one team no one cares about and one that everyone is tired of, this series hopefully will be more exciting than either of the second round tilts in the East.

One guy will determine this series: Henrik Lundqvist.  The Rangers goalie was nothing short of sensational last series, and his ability to nurse a one goal lead is, by now, well-known (feels like the Rangers haven’t had a two goal game since the Messier days).  This is particularly noteworthy when you consider how well Tampa has been this playoffs when scoring first (they’re undefeated).

For the Lightning, Steven Stamkos will continue to be the storyline.  He had three goals last round, but the sniper who decimated opponents the past few seasons just doesn’t seem to be there right now.  Tampa has relied on its famed Triplets line for top-end scoring thus far. 

This series will hopefully be characterized by speed.  Both teams bring very quick players, especially on their lower lines, that can change the course of a game just by a hard move into the offensive zone (kinda like Chris Kreider did against the Caps).  The last round didn’t feature much of this, but when it did both the Rangers and the Lightning cashed in. 

As was the case against Montreal, real emphasis will be placed on whether Ben Bishop can match Henrik Lundqvist.  Bishop has had a great postseason, but with some blemishes.  His glove hand in particular has failed him at some points, but through Game 1 he looks to have done a decent job.  It seems, however, that Lundqvist gets better and better as a series progresses, so the question remains whether it can all be sustained.

Prediction: Rangers in six.  I can see Tampa winning two here, but after their close calls in the first and second round (without a Tyler Johnson goal with under a second left they might not even be here) it’s tough to trust them at this point.  New York has, for lack of a better term, proven themselves qualified winners.  Their talent from top to bottom might not be as prolific, but with the Swede at their back I don’t see them losing to Tampa.

The Caps Offseason

Coming into the offseason, the Caps have some serious decisions to make.

First are the restricted free agents: Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Braden Holtby.  It’s obvious they should do whatever they can to make Holtby happy, as he is the franchise goalie officially.  Kuznetsov, despite his disappointing season, looks to be the second line center for the Caps going forward.  I say sign him too.

The unrestricted free agents are a different batch: Mike Green, Joel Ward, Eric Fehr, Jay Beagle, Curtis Glencross, and Tim Gleason.  To dispense with the low-hanging fruit, Gleason and Glencross should not return.  Glencross started hot, but faded, and Gleason for all his physicality is keeping the spot warm for a youngster like Dimitry Orlov or maybe Nate Schmidt.

The key decision will be Mike Green.  In a more limited role this year, Green responded with 45 points, his most since the barnburning ’09-’10 season.  That’s great production, regardless, but it also means Green will be due a big pay day, especially at age 29.  I am in favor of letting Green go, mainly because he would demand a lot of money for a guy playing less than 20 minutes a game.  I also believe the younger guys can replicate his production in 5-on-5 when they come up (Orlov in particular), though it will be difficult to find his replacement for the power play unit.

Once those options are taken care of, we’re left with Ward, Fehr, Beagle, and Johansson.  Ward made $3 million last year, and might be looking for a raise after proving his worth in the postseason.  Eric Fehr had 33 points this year, and seems comfy in DC after his brief stint with Winnipeg a few seasons ago.  Jay Beagle, despite only 20 points, is a wonderful face-off man and a great penalty killer.  Marcus Johansson can play on the top line and, amazingly, is the 5th most prolific scorer from his draft class, despite being picked at the bottom of the order.

If possible, you sign all four, but I don’t think that will happen.  The Caps have carved out a great use for Beagle, who I think deserves more than the 900K he made last season, and should stay.  The others are question marks.  Ward also has his specific role, and it seems he is a great presence in the locker room based on how he handles the media.  In the end, both he and Johansson have the ability to play on the top line, so if you can keep one, the other may have to go.  Fehr was a sparkplug this season, scoring big goals and plenty of them, and I liked his play before going down in the playoffs.  He provides true depth scoring and also is a decent two-way player that can contribute on the penalty kill, something Johansson does not do.

In the end, I’d let Johansson walk if I had to.  Regardless, it was a good season, though they choked at the end.

No comments:

Post a Comment