New Pair of Flowers for Augusta and AFC South Predictions

On Monday, Augusta National, the site of the Masters and most likely the most famous golf course in the world, admitted its first female members. (Grammatical note: The phrase is "first female members" not "first women members", which was the headline on Monday's USA Today.  The second phrase is improper grammar and generally harmful to reading eyes and hearing ears.  I have checked this with an authority, so believe it and use the proper phrasing).  The club, open since 1932, has experienced some pressure in recent years to admit women as full members, but until now has refused to even discuss the matter with the public.  The final decision to admit former Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and South Carolina financier Darla Moore came like a bell in the night, a shock to many in golf who had not expected Augusta to budge anytime soon.

And yet, with such a momentous occasion, criticism poured in from media outlets all over the country.  Many media members, instead of applauding Augusta, asked variants of “what took you so long?”  Others, in a true show of ignorance, said, “this changes nothing, Augusta will continue to be the playground of the rich and famous!”  The second complaint can be read as, “you let in the wrong women.”

As far as criticizing Augusta’s delay, there can be no doubt that women have been barred for a long time, a stance incompatible with modern values regarding gender equality.  Yet, I do not think that is reason enough to criticize Augusta for taking so long.  Augusta National has always been a private institution, subject to its own whims and customs and the will of its membership.  To that end, they are well within their rights to make any kind of membership restrictions they want.  Before crying “racism” or “sexism”, that is no different than any other country club in your neighborhood.  The amount of invite-only clubs number in the hundreds around the U.S., with some retaining the all-male membership so hated by Augusta critics.  All prestigious golf clubs also have internal membership boards to vet applicants and do so based on many factors, the highest of which being wealth in most cases.  So, Augusta has followed its own prerogative for a long time as a club.  Which means the criticism focuses exclusively on Augusta as a golfing landmark, ignoring discriminatory practices seen at so many all-male clubs around the country.  Knowing Augusta’s status in the golfing world, this is a big deal and big day for female golfers around the world.  Criticizing Augusta for its delay misses the rights of its members and the monumental change this represents.  Hopefully, more will follow.

The second criticism truly makes me laugh.  Yet again, a course as prestigious as Augusta will not be admitting Sue Smith the homemaker as a member.  Like almost every recognizable golf club in the world, members are chosen for their ability to represent the club well and pay for its upkeep.  Why doesn’t Olympic Club, site of the 2012 U.S. Open, receive such ridicule?  Why not Aronimink in Philly, Firestone in Akron, or tiny Westwood in Vienna, Virginia?  All are guilty of using wealth as a membership condition, so to pick out Augusta as the bad egg strikes me as ignorant.  Golf has always been a moneyed sport, given the maintenance of courses, equipment costs, and fees for any club membership.  Very few impoverished kids are playing golf, and while that could be improved, the reality is golf requires money right now.  Even public courses of any consequence can be $65 a round at least.  Augusta has done nothing new, wrong, or particularly odious by adding two very successful women to its rolls.

And that’s another point…these are not slouches by any means.  Darla Moore is the head of a financial firm and has given vast amounts of money to South Carolina institutions.  Condoleeza Rice speaks for herself, an immensely successful and recognizable figure who rose to prominence as a black woman, no mean feat given the attitudes of the mid-20^th century.  An Augusta membership befits both women as a testament to their triumphs and successes.  For the future, perhaps Augusta will allow a higher number of successful women and truly reach the kind of gender equality so valued by many of its critics.  Consider that possibility…and acknowledge that could never happen without the announcement on Monday.  This represents a huge step for Augusta, and should be taken as such.

Predicting the AFC South

The AFC South saw a real change last year, as the dominant Colts fell to the depths of despair after a 2-14 season.  In their place, the Houston Texans broke through to make the playoffs for the first time in Houston.  The Titans surprised many with their play, while the Jaguars broke in rookie Blaine Gabbert in a rough season.  Amazingly, this year might look very similar to last year.

1.      Houston Texans

The Skinny: Shouldn’t shock most folks to see the Texans here considering the overall weakness of the division.  Matt Schaub had this team in serious Super Bowl discussions before injury last year, so his healthy return puts more confidence in the team.  Arian Foster and Ben Tate provide perhaps the best two-headed rushing attack in the whole league behind an experience, bruising offensive line.  On defense, the loss of Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans hurts at linebacker but Brian Cushing and Connor Barwin anchor a unit still best in the division.  Owen Daniels as tight end represents a safety blanket for Schaub, so should see consistent production.

The Gaping Holes: The Texans must stay healthy.  Injuries derailed them last year at multiple positions, and wide receiver seems most vulnerable.  Kevin Walter is not a proven No. 2 receiver, so any injury to stud Andre Johnson will wreak havoc.  The cornerbacks also raise some eyebrows, with Kareem Jackson and Brice McCain playing opposite Johnathan Joseph.  While Houston media outlets are hopeful after preseason games, the outlook doesn’t look great over a full 16 games.

Key Games: Oct. 14 vs. Green Bay, Oct. 21 vs. Baltimore, Nov. 11 at Chicago, Nov. 22 at Detroit, Dec. 10 at New England

Prediction: The five games above will decide the season for the Texans.  Back-to-back against Green Bay and Baltimore at home could create at least one quality win for this team.  The division remains so weak compared to the Texans that they should control their division.  I predict 10-6 provided the offense stays relatively healthy.  If skill positions start going down, there’s no telling what to expect.

2.      Tennessee Titans

The Skinny: The Titans pleasantly surprised last year, and it looks as if they can do so again this year.  Chris Johnson returns after a full offseason as does wide receiver Kenny Britt, on a torrid pace last year before injury.  The addition of guard Steve Hutchison to the offensive line makes that group much more protective of sophomore quarterback Jake Locker, who will try to re-create Matt Hasselbeck’s success last year in just his second season.  He can do so with draft pick Kendall Wright out of Baylor.  Mike Martin boosts the inside of this defensive line in ways that should stuff the run, and the Titans might have the best low altitude kicker in Rob Bironas.

The Gaping Hole: For the Titans the question is not of talent but execution.  Chris Johnson struggled to 1000 yards last year, so can he come back with an elite-level season?  With the loss of cornerback Cortland Finnegan the cornerback core looks very shaky and without any substantial depth.  For Jake Locker, his play last season inspired confidence, but can the Titans create the kind of offensive balance needed to give a young QB the right opportunity?  If the Titans can establish the running game, Locker can do damage with the play-action pass.

Key Games: Sep. 30 at Houston, Oct. 11 vs. Pittsburgh, Oct. 21 at Buffalo, Dec. 2 vs. Houston

Prediction: I might be cynical, but I do not trust Chris Johnson to come back.  His effort last year was never there and his measly yards-per-carry stat doesn’t reflect big games against weak opponents.  The Titans also have a brutal schedule with games against Chicago, Detroit, New England, and Green Bay.  The defense will be fearsome, but the growing pains of Jake Locker will keep the offense from being too explosive in my mind.  I see 8-8 as a likely record for this team.

3.      Jacksonville Jaguars

The Skinny: To make a long story short, Blaine Gabbert has looked excellent this preseason.  The addition of Justin Blackmon at wide receiver certainly gives him an explosive outside option and will take some burden off the running game.  Add in Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans, and the facelift at wide receiver is complete.  Russell Allen played very well at linebacker last year and Derek Cox was the best defender for a decent Jacksonville secondary last season.  That secondary should improve with ex-Giant Aaron Ross likely starting opposite Cox.

The Gaping Hole: The typical answer would be Gabbert’s play, but as of this week attention has shifted to Maurice Jones-Drew.  MJD led the league in rushing last season with just over 1600 yards and singlehandedly sunk two of my fantasy teams.  He’s unhappy with his current contract, however, and has been holding out for just over 30 days, reportedly requesting a trade.  Shaihd Khan has not been amused, giving him lip service as an important player, knowing full well a trade this late in the offseason would have to be slathering on a spit for him to pull the trigger.  Will Jones-Drew come back fully motivated and will the lack of offseason workouts hurt him?  It’s highly likely.  If so, Gabbert will need to improve quickly to make this team competitive.

Key Games: Sep. 30 vs. Cincinnati, Oct. 21 at Oakland, Dec. 9 vs. New York Jets

Prediction: I can’t help feeling like the games against Cincy and Oakland will be huge for this team’s confidence.  The three other games in that five game stretch are Chicago, Green Bay, and Detroit, so winning against mid-level teams would really shock the team to possibly play well.  Unfortunately, Jacksonville will have to make a huge leap this year to be close to the top of this division, and it looks like the pieces likely won’t be there at the same time this season.  Gabbert’s development will carry this team and decide its fate.  I see him hurried in the pocket and a 6-10 record come season’s end.

4.      Indianapolis Colts

The Skinny: If there is a more exciting last place team out there this year, find them for me.  Andrew Luck has looked nothing short of stupendous for a rookie in the preseason.  He played in an NFL system the last three years and shows remarkable ability pre-snap to direct the offense.  Coby Fleener adds a familiar security blanket for Luck and Reggie Wayne will get open for Luck.  He will create some serious buzz around the league, especially since the Colts will likely be 2-1 after the first three weeks.

The Gaping Hole: In a word, youth.  Over half the team is totally new to the organization, so there will be some growing pains.  But, the lack of egos will also help the team to win and build together.  On defense, the Colts will need a little help.  Dwight Freeney continues to be the most overpaid player in the NFL for very little production, first round pick Jerry Hughes might be cut from the team, and the linebackers are not anyone you’ve ever heard about.  On the offensive side, the line is a wide-open competition, meaning there could be some protection issues for Luck to be comfortable.  That will be something to watch with games against the tough defensive fronts in Houston, Green Bay, and Tennessee.

Key Games: Sep. 9 at Chicago, Nov. 28 at New England

Prediction: The team won’t win the division, but playoffs aren’t totally out of the question depending on the AFC’s strength.  The Colts could create a huge buzz by beating the Bears at Soldier Field, but the last seven games of their schedule will likely decide Indy’s final record.  New England, Buffalo, Detroit, Tennessee, Kansas City, and two dates with Houston mark that run in the schedule.  The Colts will win at best two of those, but one is a surer bet.  I see a 5-11 year for them in 2012, but this team will make the playoffs next season by the looks of it.