Predicting the AFC North

While the divisions in the West might hold the most open competitions, the AFC North has its own share of concerns.  The Ravens defense, usually so vaunted, must deal with Father Time.  Ben Roethlisberger might have issues with his offensive coordinator.  The Bengals, so surprising a year ago, rest their fortune on the shoulders of two sophomores.  And the Browns toil, swimming upstream for the 13^th year in a row.

1.      Baltimore Ravens

The Skinny: The Ravens have competed in each of the last three seasons, meeting demise from the Patriots more often than not in the postseason.  But, the team brings a great offense to the table that might be the most perfectly balanced in the league.  Ray Rice averaged 4.7 yards a carry last year to 1349 rushing yards.  Quarterback Joe Flacco leads a passing attack that will look a little different this year.  With no Derrick Mason, Flacco will have Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin on the outside, in addition to offseason acquisition Jacoby Jones.  Might not sound appealing, but throw in plans that the Ravens will use the no-huddle offense this year, and all that speed might work in their favor.  The defense largely speaks for itself, with Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, and Ed Reed some of the more prestigious players at their respective positions.

The Gaping Holes: Age permeates the defensive side of the ball for this team.  Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are not getting any younger.  The injury of Terrell Suggs also has the potential to hurt the pass rush of Baltimore, but the immensely well-timed drafting of Courtney Upshaw will help fill the void.  Thus far in preseason, the Ravens have not found the right starting combinations on the offensive line, especially at the tackle positions.  If Baltimore wants to keep riding the running game, they will need to figure out the O-Line in short order.  Otherwise, the Ravens are primed.

Key Games: Sep. 23 vs. New England, Oct. 21 at Houston, Nov. 18 at Pittsburgh, Dec. 2 vs. Pittsburgh, Dec. 23 vs. New York Giants

Prediction: This race will be fairly close, as both teams have the same kind of weaknesses.  But, the Ravens bring the offensive balance to the table that Pittsburgh will likely lack.  If Baltimore can split the series with the Steelers, 11-5 is possible, with 10-6 likely.  Still, their division record will be good enough to beat the Steelers in a tiebreaker.

2.      Pittsburgh Steelers

The Skinny: This is a risky pick.  The Steelers bring back an experienced, potent, and tough defense that will hold the team in games.  Ben Roethlisberger can make plays with his feet, keeping plays alive long enough to find the open man.  The wide receiving corps, often undervalued by those not in Pittsburgh, brings the right combination of vertical speed and agility from the slot position to give defenses headaches.  On the defensive side, there are no real areas of concern other than general age.  Troy Polamalu continues as a premier run-stopping safety, while James Harrison, Larry Foote, Lawrence Timmons, and Lamarr Woodley bring big hits into the backfield.  The cornerback position across from Ike Taylor remains a small mystery, but should not suffer too much.

The Gaping Holes: Unfortunately, there is a big downside in Pittsburgh this year.  In 2011 the Steelers relied on the passing game, a stark change from their identity in the 2000s.  The result got them to the playoffs with a hobbled quarterback.  Running back Rashard Mendenhall has no timetable for his return, meaning carries will go to Isaac Redman, who is capable but not awe-inspiring.  For Big Ben, he must stay healthy.  The loss of David DeCastro this past weekend removes a valuable young cog on the offensive line, in addition to the injury-plagued career of stud center Maurkice Pouncey.  That will be the biggest key for the Steelers: should Ben stay in the games and relatively healthy, he can bring the team to the postseason.  If not, there could be a mess.

Key Games: Oct. 7 vs. Philadelphia, Nov. 4 at New York Giants, Nov. 18 vs. Baltimore, Dec. 2 at Baltimore

Prediction: I am not as down on the Steelers as everyone else has been recently.  While Ben’s relationship with Todd Haley doesn’t appear to be good, once the season starts he will change his ways and perform.  The lack of a running game, however, will ultimately put serious strain on the passing attack, causing the Steelers to go 10-6 and lose the division to Baltimore.

3.      Cincinnati Bengals

The Skinny: Cincy surprised everyone last year by making the playoffs.  The play of quarterback Andy Dalton and wideout A.J. Green, both 2011 rookies, sets the stage for many to pick this team going into 2012.  And there’s good reason to do so.  Dalton can throw to Green and Jermaine Gresham at tight end, a valuable commodity in the passing NFL.  On defense, the Bengals played very well and can build off last year.  The additions of Devon Still and Dre Kirkpatrick through the draft will add line and secondary depth.  Carlos Dunlap appears poised to return a defensive end after not playing last season due to injury.  He could easily be a 10-sack player.  Finally, Vontaze Burfict has played fantastic in the preseason and could be a huge steal for the Bengals as an undrafted free agent.

The Gaping Holes: In a word, inexperience.  The Bengals are the youngest team by average age in the league and while that gives them huge upside, their division leaves very little room for puerile mistakes.  The running game, riding Cedric Benson last season, focuses squarely on New England transplant BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  Can he be relied upon to slow the game down and still advance the chains?  The offensive line also remains in a state of flux leading into the regular season opener.

Key Games: All four games against the Ravens and Steelers.

Prediction: The series with the Ravens and Steelers is the only thing that matters right now.  While the Bengals can play very well against almost anyone, they finish the season at Pittsburgh and against the Ravens in Weeks 16 and 17.  Given the mediocre performances of Green-Ellis in the past two seasons, I don’t like the odds for Cincinnati this year.  They finish 8-8 with a chance to make the playoffs in Week 17.

4.      Cleveland Browns

The Skinny: There isn’t much of one except rookie hype.  Trent Richardson, the bruising running back recently out of Alabama, might be the second coming of Adrian Peterson with his similar style.  Likewise, Brandon Weeden brings another fresh face at the quarterback position.  He should be able to create opportunities through the air while relying on Richardson for pace.

The Gaping Holes: Unfortunately, almost every other position has problems.  The wide receivers might be poised for a breakout year but the mediocrity surrounding Greg Little and Mohamed Massoqui the last few years doesn’t inspire much hope.  On defense the recent off-field troubles of cornerback Joe Haden will have a large affect on the secondary’s performance.  This unit will also be without Scott Fujita for the first two games at middle linebacker due to suspension, so leadership will come from elsewhere.  Overall, a massive rebuilding effort.

Key Games: Oct. 21 at Indianapolis, Oct. 28 vs. San Diego, Dec. 9 vs. Kansas City (read as: “Winnable Games”)

Prediction: The Browns will spend much of the year losing close games.  I do foresee the offense stepping up its game in 2012 but the defense will not be able to stop opponents.  The talent in this division above Cleveland makes anything more than a 4-12 finish would be a success.

Bit #1: Highway Robbery in LA

I am still speechless about the Red Sox-Dodgers trade last week.  Boston unloaded $260 million of its payroll to Los Angeles, in effect pressing the reset button in the hopes of re-tooling for the future.  Sure, the Red Sox lost two guys with $100 million contracts.  Adrian Gonzalez alone was providing the majority of the offense for Boston, meaning the Red Sox knowingly gave up a big piece.

But look at their return…packaging Gonzalez with Crawford and Beckett, the Red Sox eliminated an underachieving left fielder who will likely sit next year and a clubhouse pitching cancer in the form of Beckett.  The deal leaves Boston in Grade AAA position to pursue any free agent they want this offseason.  Josh Hamilton, for example, looks to be high on their list.  The money will also give Boston the chance to bring back David Ortiz, a hometown favorite currently on a one-year deal.

For the Dodgers, the deal accomplishes the purpose of making a splash.  On paper, they might have the best lineup in baseball, with Hanley Ramirez, Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp all threatening.  The acquisition of Crawford shocks me, however.  He likely will sit out the 2013 season with Tommy John surgery.  The Dodgers knew that and still traded for him, meaning they value his long-term possibility.  Still, they could have signed Michael Bourn in the offseason for half the money.  Barring another blockbuster deal, Crawford won’t be moved anytime soon, placing a large millstone on the necks of Dodgers ownership.  On the flip side, LA could win the World Series with all of these guys.  Still, they were fleeced into giving up a top of the rotation prospect and any salary leverage they could have in future trading deadlines.  A bad deal for the Dodgers, but credit the Red Sox for their aggressive play.

Bit #2: Lance Armstrong clearly guilty

Lance Armstrong means very little now for the history books.  His records, Tour de France titles, and Olympic medal are now wiped clean.  What makes it horrible: he admitted guilt by withdrawing his challenge.

Personally, I was never convinced of his guilt.  The evidence of USADA (U.S. Anti-Doping Agency) showed “traces” of banned substances, though he never failed a test.  The eyewitness accounts of Tyler Hamilton and other cyclists, however, drew USADA to Armstrong.  A subsequent report details blood samples from Armstrong as “being consistent with” blood manipulation and use of banned substances.  Notice the lack of the word “proved.”  I would also add, the testimony of Hamilton came after he was banned for eight years for doping.

But, Armstrong let them have their way with his legacy.  Certainly, his denials were not viewed favorably by any of the cycling governing bodies, but for a man with so much championship pedigree he withdrew quietly.  Folks will still love, admire, and respect Armstrong.  And they should.  His return from cancer to anything resembling a sporting career deserves praise.  I find it hard to believe, however, that a man supposedly as innocent as Armstrong claimed he was would give up.  To a reporter known for dissing Armstrong in the news, the cyclist berated him in front of a whole press conference after a question.  As an athlete, he has always been proud.  For a withdrawal so out of character, Armstrong either heard about more damning evidence to come or decided he could not beat the rap.  I think the former is more likely.  If you won seven Tour de France titles, would you let them go?

Bit #3: Dez Bryant Rules

As usual, the Dallas Cowboys organization confirmed its status as a less than elite group this weekend.  Hoping to whip star(?) receiver Dez Bryant into shape off the field, the Cowboys enacted a series of rules for him.  These include a midnight curfew, no alcohol, no strip clubs, attendance at team-approved nightclubs, and a 3 man team to accompany him.

The draconian nature of these rules notwithstanding, Dez Bryant is not worth this.  The Cowboys are trying to squeeze every last ounce of play out of Bryant in the hopes he can rebound.  Jerry Jones wants to discuss with the media always about Bryant becoming part of the team, but the rules placed on him already set him apart from his teammates.  No other NFL organization uses this approach.  When the Patriots, the gold standard of attracting questionable characters, add a potential cancer to the roster, the expectations are set for them to be professional and follow team rules.  The punishment: losing your roster spot.

Obviously Dallas folded lots of money into Bryant, so he might well be worth the attention.  But, the organizational approach to enact draconian rules will not change anything, even if Bryant plays halfway decent next year.  The guy laid hands on his mother and thus deserves a swift kick out of town as opposed to a somewhat conciliatory approach from the team.  Then again, Jerry Jones must have known there were character flaws in Bryant when he drafted him, so perhaps he’s prepared for this all along?  If so, why did he take him already huh?

If the Cowboys want to take the next step, stop coddling players and create a locker room more concerned with a Super Bowl than approving nightclubs.

Bit #4: What’s with the beards?

Joe Buck, Tony Reali, and Mike Greenberg sported beards this past weekend.  I understand the Little League World Series represented a sports apocalypse for us all, but the halfhearted attempts at facial hair need to stop.  Buck in particular looked ghastly with a few stray gray hairs gracing his chin.  Football cometh, boys, so let’s not scare the impressionable future fans eh?