Predicting the NFC South

Bounty-gate struck the NFL in April, beginning a saga of lawsuits, vitriol, and disbelief.  While the NFL originally looked to be fully in the right, subsequent events have cast questions on their evidence.  Regardless, the premier team in the NFC South, the Saints, must compete in 2012 without their head coach.  So, how does that shake up the division?

1.      Atlanta Falcons

The Skinny: Might be a trendy pick, but the Falcons have all the weapons they need.  Matt Ryan progresses each year and has played very well in the preseason.  His wide receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones, provide arguably the best one-two option for a quarterback in the entire league.  Jones in particular could break out this year.  Michael Turner will again be a workhorse back with lots of carries to his credit, but look for the passing game to dominate.  The acquisition of Asante Samuel in the offseason adds a ball-hawking cornerback to the mi for Atlanta, a welcome addition for any team.  This year the Falcons will make the postseason again, but coach Mike Smith better hope he can win once he gets there.

The Gaping Holes: The trenches for this team have been abysmal.  Ryan was hit by pass rush 84 times last year, fourth most in the league.  The starters on the O-line have shown a marked inability to protect him.  With Jones’ speed on the outside, decent protection could lead to more deep balls.  The line needs to step up their game.  On the defensive side, John Abraham needs a breather as the only Falcon pass-rusher of any consequence.  The linebackers must create this year, especially against divisional QBs like Drew Brees and Cam Newton.

Key Games: Atlanta faces all four AFC West teams before the bye, so winning in those games will be crucial for success.  Otherwise, October 28 at Philadelphia, Nov. 4 vs. Dallas, Nov. 11 at New Orleans, Nov. 29 vs. New Orleans, Dec. 22 at Detroit

Prediction: The game with Detroit at the end of the season will have huge playoff implications if I’m to be believed.  I see the Falcons finishing one game ahead of the Saints for the divisional crown at 11-5.  Matt Ryan has all the receivers he could want, and I’d be willing to be Jacquizz Rodgers channels his inner Darren Sproles as a backup speedster.  But, given the strength of the NFC, the Falcons lose again in the playoffs and can Mike Smith.

2.      New Orleans Saints

The Skinny: The answer to the question above is “not that much.”  While the Saints are lacking the figure at the head of the organization, Drew Brees will continue to be an offensive genius.  One more good season and we can pencil him into the Hall of Fame without question.  Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles posed huge problems for defenses last season, and given statements by the offensive coordinator, Sproles should see more targets on the field.  The backfield by committee model frustrates fantasy owners but does wonders for the Saints as a whole.  Every type of running back can be represented in their backfield, which will help them against the weak defenses in Carolina and Tampa.

The Gaping Holes: There is more riding on Drew Brees this season than at any other point.  He must run the offense without his mentor and co-conspirator in coach Sean Payton.  That might get to him after a while.  His protection team on the line also lost Carl Nicks, meaning one of the best guard tandems in Jahari Evans and Nicks has been broken up.  Ben Grubbs helps as a replacement, but maybe not enough for the whole line.  On defense, the question remains how the unit will play under new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Key Games: Sep. 30 at Green Bay, Nov. 5 vs. Philadelphia, Nov. 11 vs. Atlanta, Nov. 29 at Atlanta, Dec. 9 at New York Giants

Prediction: The Saints will be a wild-card team this year, likely beating out the Lions/Bears for a playoff spot with a 10-6 record.  Brees might carry a lot, but in the end I see the defense being unable to stop opponents.  Their performance against the 49ers last season in the playoffs did nothing to make fans confident that unit can play.  Quarterback play will carry them, but don’t be surprised to see a few mishaps along the way (maybe off coaching mistakes?).

3.      Carolina Panthers

The Skinny: Cam Newton proved last year that rookie quarterbacks without traditional molds can play very well in the NFL.  Around him, the addition of Mike Tolbert in the backfield adds a strong red-zone option for close touchdowns and fourth down conversions.  Last year, the defense hurt the team’s chances, but linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis return this year with a vengeance.  The best defensive player on the Panthers by far, Beason provides excellent tackling ability and run coverage.  In the end, all depends on Cam Newton, but an improved defense will help.

The Gaping Holes: I had Steve Smith on my fantasy team last year and he surprised everyone with his stellar play before injury.  As much as I like him, however, in Newton’s second year defenses are more prepared for Carolina’s aerial attack, so a complimentary wide receiver would prove very useful for the Panthers.  Also, the defensive line played awfully last season, and it appears not much has changed.  If defensive end Charles Johnson can create sacks, the Panthers will be in good shape.  Otherwise, the defensive front just takes up space for the linebackers.

Key Games: Playing all three divisional rivals in the first four games doesn’t help for the later stages, and the Panthers have some other big games.  Oct. 21 vs. Dallas, Oct. 28 at Chicago, November 26 at Philadelphia.

Prediction: Another tough pick to make, but the talent surrounding Newton does not match up to the Falcons and Saints.  But, the Panthers are primed for a surprisingly good year…their record just might not reflect increased standard play.  I see 8-8 with Newton just a shade under 4,000 yards in the air.

4.      Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Skinny: After a very active offseason, the Bucs look to improve upon a supremely disappointing 2011.  Quarterback Josh Freeman showed remarkable ability two seasons ago, so if he can return to that form the Bucs will again surprise.  The addition of Carl Nicks will bolster a beleaguered offensive line that couldn’t block for 1^st down running plays last year.  Also, Vincent Jackson now plays in Tamp Bay, a weapon for Freeman and definitely a receiver upgrade.  Look for tight end Dallas Clark, formerly of Indianapolis, to have a solid year after injury-plagued seasons.  Finally, Doug Martin shows lots of Ray Rice’s game in him as a shorter, quicker running back with the ability to run between the tackles.  He likely will receive most of the carries in head coach Greg Schiano’s bruising running attack.

The Gaping Holes: The run defense was worst in the league last year, and not much has been changed from last year’s unit.  Gerald McCoy, the high draft pick at defensive tackle, will need to stay healthy for the front seven to have any luck this year.  The linebackers resemble your grandfather’s black tie: riddled with stains and holes.  None of the linebackers played well last year, so very little tells me they will change their ways in 2012.

Key Games: Sep. 16 at New York Giants, Oct. 21 vs. New Orleans, Nov. 18 at Carolina, Nov. 25 vs. Atlanta

Prediction: Last year’s 4-12 record certainly won’t be in play this year, but 6-10 will be a likely landing spot.  The Bucs need one more year under Schiano to compete in their tough division.  I am also skeptical a return to the running game will do very much for them in terms of scoring points, a part of the game the Bucs can’t ignore in the prolific NFC South.  One more year.