Two huge stories dominate baseball right now and,
amazingly, one such tale centers on the Washington Nationals, an anomaly for
any professional team in Washington.
Last season, the rookie phenom had Tommy John surgery to repair
ligaments in his elbow. He sat out
almost the entire season in preparation for the 2012 campaign. Before the season started however, the
Nationals front office announced they would like to shut down Strasburg after
160 innings in order to save his arm for the future. Debate has raged ever since.
The cacophony has increased the last few weeks,
especially since the Nationals currently hold the best record in baseball. And Strasburg, along with the rest of the
rotation, has been a huge part of that success, with a 15-5 record and 2.85
ERA. Up to now, Strasburg has thrown 145
innings, meaning he has about two starts left before reaching the magic 160.
Everyone has joined this conversation. Manager Davey Johnson’s press conferences
display an unfailing devotion to the magic 160, but in recent weeks he has
sarcastically been asking media members “any ideas on getting Stephen to pitch
in September?” perhaps signifying a disconnect between himself and General
Manager Mike Rizzo. For Rizzo, the
decision has always rested with him. And
he wants to remind all of us about it, refusing to give credence to Johnson’s
musings or speculations about how much time Strasburg will miss. The pitcher’s agent, the famous Scott Boras,
has inserted his opinion into the discussion, assuring everyone that the team
(which somehow includes him based on his statements) has Strasburg’s long-term
health in mind, regardless of possible pennants or, dare I say it,
championships.
For Boras, the man known to obtain overpaid contracts
for overrated veterans, the smooth talk disguises his own potential personal
gain. After this year, Strasburg’s
contract could send him to arbitration over the next three years before he
finally becomes a free agent in 2017.
Hoping he remains in DC until 2017 has remarkable similarities to hoping
humans spontaneously sprout wings…it won’t happen. Strasburg will receive an arbitrated contract
for maybe two of those years, but eventually he will garner huge money from a
bigger market team. And Boras will
benefit directly from that payday further down the road. Boras might have his client’s interest in
mind, but his statements cannot be taken at face value. He knows the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.
will vie for Strasburg’s services in the years to come, and he very well could
become the highest-paid pitcher in baseball history.
How does that mentality affect the team’s
decision? In short, championship runs
come around with no timetable for your next run. While the Nationals admittedly played very
well this year and could go deep in the playoffs, next year holds a new host of
questions and uncertainty. Will Ryan
Zimmerman stay healthy? Can the rotation
be counted on without Edwin Jackson? How
about the bullpen, normally the most volatile part of a team from one year to
the next? Washington’s team hums on all
cylinders now, here, in 2012. As much as
Strasburg’s protection should be paramount, the Nats will not have him for much
longer and may never have a chance this appetizing for success again. Championships are to be pursued, not put
off. While the rotation of DC will play
very well in September and October, Strasburg has the mythical status that can
scare batters in the playoffs (think Curt Schilling or Randy Johnson in
2001). He might not be a guaranteed win,
but he will keep the team in key playoff games.
Banking on next year’s team makes very little sense right now and the
gamble might very well not pay off. Given
the talent on Atlanta, Miami, and potentially Philadelphia, the Nationals have
not by any means staked their claim to the division this year.
In short, let’s not put the wagon before the
horse. The Nats will not have Strasburg
forever, and while they can bank on their current rotation for the playoffs,
Strasburg makes the team that much better.
And, does anyone think he doesn’t want to win a championship? He’s a professional ballplayer, so of course
he wants to win, and win right now. As
much as the Nationals have made brilliant roster moves this year, shutting down
Strasburg now comes down to a gamble, relying on the team performing similarly
next season. As the magic 160
approaches, he likely will be shut down by the front office. Should the Nationals not do well, we in DC
will wonder if this decision could have changed the postseason prospects for a
franchise and a city starved for success.
Predicting the NFC North
Last year the NFC North contained two great stories:
the 15-1 Packers and the first playoff berth for the Lions in a long time. This season, the Bears look rejuvenated and
retooled, meaning the divisional games between those three franchises this year
will determine who wins the division.
Minnesota continues to wallow in the wasteland and will look up at the
other three teams the entire season.
1.
Green
Bay Packers
The Skinny:
It’s tough to pick against this team, considering very few players left the
team and very few joined. Aaron Rodgers,
the reigning NFL MVP, returns a deep receiving corps complete with upside in
the form of Randall Cobb. He throws
accurately and runs the offense to perfection.
The offensive line improved dramatically with the addition of Jeff
Saturday at center, who should do well if he can adjust properly. The weaker secondary play in the division
will help the Packers air attack.
The Gaping Holes:
Last year, the Packers defense played awfully, forcing Rodgers to carry the
team on late drives. Six of the team’s
eight draft picks focused on defensive picks, some of whom will have large
expectations for the coming year. Nick
Perry at outside linebacker will need to pressure quarterbacks as should
defensive end Jerel Worthy. Charles
Woodson will likely move to safety, meaning cornerback will be an open
competition opposite Tramon Williams.
The secondary will likely be a liability again this season barring a
breakout performance from a youngster. A
one-win season also looks unlikely given the difficult schedule confronting the
Packers and their inability last year to create any kind of running attack.
Key Games:
Sep. 9 vs. San Francisco, Sep. 13 vs. Chicago, Sep. 30 vs. New Orleans, Oct. 14
at Houston, Nov. 25 at New York Giants
Predictions:
The games above do not include the two games against the Lions in the last few
weeks of the season. The Packers
thankfully have Rodgers in their corner, and while the defense will still be
poor against the pass, the Pack finishes 13-3
playing really tough opposition throughout the year.
2.
Detroit
Lions
The Skinny:
The Detroit Lions surprised everyone last year and are poised to again ascend
the ranks of the NFC. Matthew Stafford
threw for over 5,000 yards last season and 40 touchdowns with superstar wide
receiver Calvin Johnson decimating double coverage on almost any play. The defensive line with Ndamukong Suh and
Nick Fairley will still maintain a vigorous pass rush and serious smash mouth
mentality. Stafford’s ability to create
with his arm can take this team a long way.
Most of the team’s talent is 25 and under, and with so many returning
starters coach Jim Schwartz will again have the team in contention.
The Gaping Holes:
Unfortunately, the running game has no direction. Jahvid Best and Mikel Leshoure, the alleged
saviors of the Detroit running backs, both look unhealthy right now. Leshoure will make his debut in the next
preseason game, but does having all of last year off affect him? The release of Aaron Berry for off-filed
issues will also exacerbate concerns in the secondary, the weakest part of the
defense last year by far. Finally, with
smash mouth intensity comes moments of high emotion. Last year, such moments derailed the Lions
via suspensions to key players. If those
moments return, the Lions may find themselves without important players at key
times in an incredibly top-heavy division.
Key Games:
Sep. 16 at San Francisco, Oct. 14 at Philadelphia, Oct. 22 at Chicago, Nov. 22
vs. Houston, Dec. 22 vs. Atlanta, Dec. 30 vs. Chicago
Prediction:
I cannot stress enough how important games against Green Bay and Chicago figure
for this team. I envision all three
teams 2-2 against the other two, meaning nondivisional schedules will determine
placement. Detroit has tough games at
tough times, but I think they can beat both Atlanta and Chicago towards the end
of the season to finish 12-4 and
obtain the top Wild Card position in the NFC.
3.
Chicago
Bears
The Skinny:
A weird season approaches for the Bears.
A franchise historically known for its defensive prowess comes to the
table with a fully packed offensive stable.
Jay Cutler had the Bears in Super Bowl contention before going down with
injury last year. He and Matt Forte
return this year complimented by the additions at wide receiver of Brandon Marshall
and rookie Alshon Jeffrey. The defensive
pass rush, often most feared in the NFC, will receive a huge boost with the
addition of rookie defensive end Shea McClellin. Throw in Robbie Gould and the electric Devin
Hester, and the special teams unit for Chicago ranks in the top five based on a
cursory eye test.
The Gaping Holes:
One problem has haunted the Bears for years: the offensive line. Last year the line played much better than
the year before, but Jay Cutler remains a pocket passer who needs
protection. As of now, the blind side
tackle spot does not have an owner, which raises some questions about the
efficacy of the line. Still, the
addition of Jason Campbell puts a starter in the backup QB spot. Another weakness will be the safety position,
as injuries have plagued the position in the preseason and Major Wright was
unable to stay healthy last year. Ultimately,
the Bears have a tough schedule like the Packers as well.
Key Games:
Sep. 13 at Green Bay, Oct. 22 vs. Detroit, Nov. 11 vs. Houston, Nov. 19 at San
Francisco, Dec. 16 vs. Green Bay, Dec. 30 at Detroit
Prediction:
The Bears will finish 11-5,
splitting the season series with Green Bay and Detroit. The aerial attack combining Cutler and
Marshall will victimize secondaries in the league this year but, knowing the
Bears, they will fall flat against teams on the road like Dallas and San
Francisco. The last game of the season
against the Lions will likely be the biggest game of the year with both
fighting for space in the stacked NFC playoff picture.
4.
Minnesota
Vikings
The Skinny:
Where to begin…the Vikings really stink.
Unfortunately, their model of building around Adrian Peterson has not
worked. Christian Ponder, the top pick
of last year’s draft, will look to improve this season. The addition of offensive lineman Matt Kalil
from the draft will provide greater protection for Ponder. Quietly, defensive end Jared Allen almost broke
the single season sack record last year, an intimidating prospect of the end of
the line. The Vikings also have an
easier schedule early on, so expect some early hype about this team.
The Gaping Holes:
Without being too flippant, almost every part of this team needs help. Behind Percy Harvin, there are no wide
receivers. Adrian Peterson will
obviously bear a full load, but his knee injury last year means he likely will
be slower in returning to his former self, if he ever does. On defense, there are no reasonably
proficient linebackers or cornerbacks, with a bright spot at safety in Harrison
Smith. The Vikings play in a tough
division and will be treated as such.
Key Games:
Oct. 14 at Washington, Oct. 21 vs. Arizona, Nov. 4 at Seattle, Dec. 16 at St.
Louis
Prediction:
The Vikings will be in a range of wins from four to seven possibly, but I see a
bad team that will pick again in the top five again next year after a 4-12 record. The games listed above are the winnable games
on their schedule, but the Vikes will not have an easy time this year.
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