Predicting the AFC East

For one reason or another, the AFC East received the most amount of attention this offseason.  Tebow’s addition to the Jets, Buffalo’s signing of Mario Williams, and Miami’s pick of Ryan Tannehill all dominated headlines.  The reactions were just as varied, from religious fervor to utter shock. The stroylines in this division entice even the casual NFL fan.

Without too much diddling, here are my projections:

1.      New England Patriots

The Skinny: This should surprise no one, but Brady & Co. are a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2012.  The crushing championship loss last year will rankle the ultra-competitive teaming of Brady and Belichick, and the front office pinpointed their area of need in the draft: defense.  Selecting Dont’a Hightower and Chander Jones will boost New England’s pass rushing ability, and who better to practice against than the vaunted Brady offense?  The addition of Brandon Lloyd provides another vertical threat for Brady, who lacked options last year not named Gronkowski or Welker.  The team will have to decide on a running back with BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ departure, but that should not be too difficult given the usual committee rules in the New England backfield.

The Gaping Hole: Quietly, the offensive line in New England doesn’t look so good.  Sebastian Vollmer has health issues, Logan Mankins still sleeps on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, and Robert Gallery retired after last season (thankfully!).  Is Brian Waters healthy?  No one seems to know that either.  The offense may be potent, and Brady can release the ball extremely quick, but front-line trench depth remains very important for a playoff run.

Key Games: Sept. 23 at Baltimore, Oct. 7 vs. Denver, Dec. 10 vs. Houston, Dec. 16 vs. San Francisco

Prediction: I predict a 14-2 season for The Hoodies, with them losing two of the games above.  My bets are on Baltimore and San Francisco, only because both teams have the defensive personnel to bother Brady.  But don’t sleep on Houston, a team that could see the Pats again in the playoffs.  Either way, a 1- or 2-seed should be a guarantee this year.

2.      Buffalo Bills

The Skinny: Second place in this division remains extremely difficult to predict, mainly due to the generally equal nature of the three other teams.  For the Bills, the defensive line will be the key.  Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, and Shawne Merriman all can contribute in the new 4-3 scheme.  While Buffalo does not have much cover depth behind the line, those names will scare most QBs.  The Bills also benefit from a very easy schedule, playing Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville as well as dates with Arizona and Tennessee.  Their amazing 4-0 start last season turned heads, but the Bills must keep their steam this year.

The Gaping Hole:  Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick played great for half the season last year before receiving a large contract extension and then plummeting in the statistician’s ledger.  While Fitz clearly possesses the mental part of the game (he’s a Harvard graduate), how will he play under defensive pressure?  Games against San Francisco, New England, and the Jets all factor into this year’s schedule, and the cornerbacks playing for those teams can create interceptions.  He currently resides on the lower half of football’s second tier, so will he make a step forward or survive until the playoffs?

Key Games: Sep. 30 vs. New England, Oct. 7 at San Francisco, Dec. 30 vs. NY Jets

Prediction: As stated above, the bottom three in the AFC East will be tough to predict because they all should be competitive.  But with the schedule the way it stands for Buffalo, the playoffs are in sight if they can clean up against divisional opponents and keep their heads playing the Pats and 49ers in consecutive weeks.  A 9-7 record might be an upper bound for this team, but their schedule presents that kind of opportunity for Buffalo.  The last two weeks against the Dolphins and Jets could decide a playoff spot.  If the Bills are in contention then, their defense should carry them to a Wild Card berth.

3.      Miami Dolphins

The Skinny: Miami will be a strange place to play this year, mainly because no one apparently wants to be a Dolphin.  After Jeff Fisher’s rebuff and their waffling over selecting Ryan Tannehill in the draft, questions abound for this team.  But, the Dolphins finished 6-3 last season after a 0-7 start so can beat teams without a problem.  Reggie Bush looked a lot like an every down running back towards the end of the season.  Should he return to that form, Bush would do a lot ot alleviate the pressure on Miami’s passing game, currently in limbo.

The Gaping Hole: Who is throwing and catching the ball on this team?  David Gerrard, who didn’t play last year, might have the inside track to the starting job as Tannehill waits in the wings.  Don’t forget Matt Moore, who had some moments of brilliance last season.  As I said at draft time, Tannehill does not inspire confidence and the Dolphins could have waited for a better prospect next year.  But, the trade of Brandon Marshall midsummer erases any receiving threat on this team.  Reggie Bush might become the security blanket for quarterbacks out of the backfield, but Chad Ochocinco as the premier outside receiver does not bode well.

Key Games: Sep. 16 vs. Oakland, Sep. 23 vs. NY Jets, Sep. 30 @ Arizona, Oct. 28 @ NY Jets

Prediction: Three straight games against Oakland, the Jets, and Arizona will tell us if Miami is for real this year.  Their success this season hinges on being able to split both series with Buffalo and the Jets.  While I bet they will be able to do so with either team, splitting with both sounds ambitious given Miami’s lack of offensive potency.  I bet a 7-9 record, with 5-11 also very possible.

4.      New York Jets

The Skinny: Predicting the Jets this season looks a lot like a badminton game.  You think it’s all figured out, then folks start acting irrationally.  For all the fanfare about the offense, Bart Scott, Antonio Cromartie, and Darrelle Revis still patrol the defense, meaning the Jets could very much be in it this season.  Shonn Greene also provides a tough back along with the speedy Joe McKnight, who can break loose in a hurry.  Unfortunately, there are more questions than answers for the Jets right now.

The Gaping Hole: Quarterback obviously tops the list, as the Tebow gamble may or may not pay off for Gang Green.  Should it pay off, Tebow’s special offensive formation package could provide a refreshing break for Mark Sanchez and possibly net the Jets some points.  Of lesser concern, however, is safety coverage.  The Jets brought in Yeremiah Bell and former ‘Skin LaRon Landry to shore up the mess, but neither are dependable choices for the safety position.

Of highest concern will be locker room chemistry.  While reports indicate Tebow has been accepted and liked, Sanchez and wide receiver Santonio Holmes collapsed last year from an interpersonal standpoint.  Their relationship will need to heal for the passing game to be effective again.   Add in the bluster coming from the Jets, and it’s time for them to put up or shut up.  The fight at training camp on Monday afternoon certainly doesn’t help matters.

Key Games: Sep. 30 vs. San Francisco, Oct. 8 vs. Houston, Dec. 30 at Buffalo

Prediction:  Truthfully, every game this year will be key for Rex Ryan.  The Jets could surprise everyone and rebound or could hand Ryan his first losing season as a head coach (and, likely, a hot seat).  Either outcome is possible, but I don’t see this team winning more than 8 games.  We will know early on, as their home games against the Texans and 49ers back-to-back will tell a lot about the makeup of this Jets team.  I’ll bet on 6-10 with a grain of salt.

I’ll tackle the NFC West on Wednesday.

Bit #1: Testing the Verducci Hypothesis in Baseball

You all may remember one of my very early posts where I trotted out a theory of Si’s Tom Verducci.  He claimed that success in baseball might come from pitching consistency.  Specifically, he pointed out that teams in the last ten years to have 4 starters make 30 starts were very successful, with all but one making the playoffs and many pennants.

This year, he certainly looks to be accurate.  Of the nine teams currently with four starters on track for 30, only the Miami Marlins are not in playoff contention.  The Nationals, Reds, and Giants are all leading their divisions.  The Angels, Rays, Pirates, and Dodgers are all second in their respective divisions.  Each of these teams looks to be in full compliance with the Verducci Rule, and while the hypothesis remains difficult to prove, we cannot deny that teams with consistency on the mound have good shots to do better.  It will be interesting to see who makes the mark of 30 starts, with rest becoming more of a factor for pitchers as the season winds down.

Bit #2: Coaching and Parenting

The tragic death of Andy Reid’s eldest son at Eagles camp on Monday hit many around the league with some force.  The constant reminder of life’s fragility always serves to give pause, even to the most athletically gifted among us.  What Garrett Reid’s death also hints at, however, is the difficulty NFL coaches have of balancing other parts of their life.  Tony Dungy and Joe Philbin, NFL head coaches themselves, have lost sons in recent memory.  For Philbin, his case resonates with Reid’s loss: both young men had substance abuse problems surrounding their respective deaths.  Dungy lost his son to suicide.

The judgment of most will be too simplistic: NFL head coaches don’t make good fathers.  While none can surmise as to the inner details of one home or another, the deaths to point to difficulties experienced by men who spend almost every waking moment around a sports team.  Many former GMs despised their job, seeing too little of their families and enjoying life much less than beforehand.  Coaches must also experience the same imbalance, taking a job that requires drive to the “nth degree.”  Like any other similar job, head coaching can lead to less time with families.  While we can always admonish the coaches themselves, franchises must also pressure coaches to spend maximum amounts of time at home.  A tragic loss might be prevented that way in the future.