Friday, September 14, 2012

Same Old Jay


As one of the idiots who started Jay Cutler in fantasy last night, I have to wonder exactly how valuable Bears QB Jay Cutler will be this season and beyond.  At first glance, he inspires confidence.  Before the game Thursday night in Green Bay, Cutler won six straight starts.  His injury last season preceded a free-fall for the Bears from likely Super Bowl contender to January couch potatoes.  Historically, he has not played worse than any other quarterback you can imagine.  His years in Denver saw playoff berths and he led the Bears to the NFC Championship Game two seasons ago.  Holistically, Cutler has talent and shows he can use it.

And yet, how many times do NFL fans care about the holistic picture?  The chief argument in the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning debate centers around their performances when it matters.  If you know a Pats fan, you’ve heard all the attempts to diminish Manning’s skill or talent.  The argument rings immensely hollow unless we analyze playoff performances.  The same debate raged in the 80s between Dan Marino and Joe Montana (ironically, Montana beat Marino the one time the Dolphins made the Super Bowl under his watch).  As usual, legacies revolve around championships and postseasons.  In short, when opportunity comes knocking, greatness opens the door and seizes the moment.

And that’s why Jay Cutler will never be great should he continue recent trends.  In the NFC North over the last ten years, everything goes through Lambeau Field.  The Packers have won the division five of those years.  Even when they don’t win the division, Green Bay threatens the competition.  Hence, the Super Bowl win two seasons ago.  You want to win in the North?  Beating Green Bay is imperative.

And the truth is Jay Cutler can’t do it.  He can’t.  Against the Packers, Cutler does his best Greg Norman impression.  In 7 games, he’s 1-6 with 8 touchdowns and 15 interceptions against Green Bay.  I can think of a few Redskins quarterbacks with better stats against a divisional rival, and those teams were never good.  Last night’s game served as a reminder that the Bears, for all their talent and hype, will not do well with Jay Cutler continuing to wilt when they need him most.

Many in Chicagoland bring up the NFC Championship of a few years ago, in which Cutler left the game early due to an injury that was never truly fleshed out afterwards.  The Pack went on to win and advance to the Super Bowl in a 21-14 nailbiter, a shocking score considering the Bears trotted Caleb Hanie into the starting QB role.  Cutler sat on the sidelines in a jacket, seemingly too hurt to play but not showing any kind of frustration or hurt.  Such activity did not endear him to Chicago.  Did I mention that game came three weeks after the Bears missed an opportunity to eliminate the Packers from playoff contention?  Stop me if this sounds familiar, but Green Bay sacked Cutler six times, forced two interceptions on 168 passing yards, and generally made his life miserable.

The same script played out last night.  Cutler entered the game with confidence, talking a big game about his new receiving weapons.  He admonished the Packers during the week to have “good luck” in trying to stop the Bears supposedly vaunted offense with press coverage.  Guess what?  The Packers secondary barely played press coverage, resorting to a soft Cover 2 that allowed more chances to intercept throws, but could have been exploited.  On most replays, Cutler had men open, but was unable to find them.

Don’t get me wrong…there were human turnstiles playing on the line for the Bears last night.  On most one-on-one matchups in the trenches, the Bears lost.  Left tackle J’Marcus Webb had no luck with Clay Matthews, and even the overrated A.J. Hawk and B.J. Raji ate dinner in the backfield.  The consistent complaint against the Bears has always been their offensive line, and the prosecution’s Exhibit A was entered into evidence last night.  The 32nd-ranked defense of a season ago dominated this game after losing to the 49ers at home last week, hardly an offensive juggernaut.  If Cutler will ever have intrinsic value, the line must protect him better.  Seven sacks will not allow for any consistency.

Offensive coordinator Mike Tice also deserves blame here.  Late into the game, seemingly aware his offensive dam looked half-built, Tice continued calling for deep dropbacks for Cutler.  My post on Wednesday pointed out the value of quick throws in the Redskins game as a way of calming a quarterback and establishing offensive rhythm.  Tice refused to do so, preferring to let the horror ensue.  Also, why didn’t they run the ball?  San Fran dominated the pace in Green Bay last week using the rushing attack.

That is not to say Cutler was not without his opportunities, however.  The passes he did throw largely came off his back foot.  Almost every replay also showed open receivers in the flat or beneath the coverage as safety valves.  If he gave those guys so much as a glance, no one saw.  His check-down throws simply did not exist in last night’s game, an unfortunate fact since Matt Forte can be counted on to make a few guys miss as a receiver.  Cutler also made rash decisions, which led to picks.  In the third quarter, Cutler forced a ball to the middle of the field, off his back foot, that Charles Woodson intercepted.  In that situation, he needs to unload the ball into Section 143.  There’s no need to force the issue that early.  In the fourth quarter, his pass for Brandon Marshall went into double coverage and was (amazingly, based on Cutler’s postgame comments) intercepted.  Bumping his offensive lineman changed very little last night…Cutler missed open guys and could have gotten rid of the ball quicker on numerous occasions.

If Cutler wants to make the next step, he needs to beat the Packers more than once during his time in Chicago.  This season, putting the Packers down a 0-2 hole would certainly have implications further down the road, especially since the Packers would have started 0-2 in Lambeau for 2012.  But Cutler seems either incapable or unwilling to make the proper adjustments when playing the Packers.  Last night’s performance, just one in a litany of such debacles, does not bode well for the Bears.

Bit #1: Calhoun’s Legacy

Jim Calhoun, the longtime coach at UConn, retired this week at the age of 70.  Recent health troubles and NCAA sanctions all likely contributed to his decision, but regardless Calhoun could be credited with the best architecture of a college contender ever seen.  Prior to his arrival in Storrs, UConn had never advanced past the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament and hadn’t made the Dance for seven years.  Calhoun’s second team won the NIT, and only two years later the Huskies lost on a Christian Laettner buzzer-beater in the Elite Eight.  In four years, Calhoun transformed UConn into a title contender, and a good one.

In 26 years, Calhoun’s team made the Tourney 18 times, winning three championships and creating a national powerhouse.  In his last decade of work, however, rumors labeled Calhoun as a recruiting guru who knew how to cut corners in order to guarantee the best talent.  Last season, the NCAA suspended him for the first three Big East games due to recruiting violations and an inability to “create an atmosphere of compliance.”  That never sounds good or works very well with legacies, but truthfully who will remember small controversies when stacked against his achievements.  While sports media now will bring up his “complicated” legacy, Calhoun won three national championships and carries far less baggage than Bob Knight, whose closet skeletons carry lots of glare even today.

Unfortunately, he picked a poor time for UConn.  With the exodus of good basketball programs to the ACC, UConn likely will feel compelled to land in a power conference away from the Big East.  Without Calhoun, that process may be more difficult.  Should UConn stay in the conference, the Big East will have lost Jim Boeheim and Calhoun from its ranks in recent years.  The pedigree for the conference will likely run out, but Calhoun’s should be appreciated for a long time as one of the best ever.

Bit #2: Thievery in Baltimore

The Baltimore Orioles have a run differential of -20 this season.  And they are first in their division.  Such a supposedly anemic offense should not be ahead of the Yankees, at +95, or the Rays, at +76.  But, they are, mainly because they just keep winning.  A 14-inning marathon last night saw the Orioles win their 13th straight extra-innings contest, a flabbergasting stat considering how tight the divisional race has been.

It would be very easy to discredit the Orioles as “not that good” when they win so many close games and can’t seem to win every week unless the game is close.  But, for all the logic of that position, September baseball includes lots of nuances, the biggest of which being: you must win games, no style points given.  And that’s been the Baltimore model, close wins that rely on clutch play, both at the plate and the mound.  For me, baseball would benefit a lot for “Hope and Change.”  Namely, the hope that the AL East might change this season.  If the Red Sox and Yankees both miss the postseason, it will be the first such incident since 1993, almost 20 years ago.  I’m on the Baltimore bandwagon, and you should be too.

Bit #3: Lockout will solve nothing

On Saturday at midnight, the NHL will officially lock out the players.  A move that brings great personal sadness to me also comes with trepidation and anger, mainly directed at commissioner Gary Bettman.  For fans of hockey, the stoppage in 2004 was dreadful, but since then hockey has becomes a little more burdensome on fans.  The on-ice product looks better than before, but checkbooks are opening more for hockey. 

Since the lockout in 2004, ticket prices have increased by an average of 39%.  For you economic buffs, that’s substantially above inflation, so let’s not diminish the stat too much.  Bettman, in recent statements, wants to look out for the small market franchises.  In his mind, taking money from the players will go directly to the smaller markets, helping them to make ends meet.  The players also bought into this idea with their emergency fund concept, a good plan that would actually send money directly to the Nashvilles and Phoenixes of the league.

But, if the owners are serious about the smaller teams, they need to increase their own revenue sharing across all franchises.  The NFL can do this through massive TV revenues, but for hockey local revenues provide the lifeblood for smaller teams.  Short of receiving more money for bigger markets, owners will have to make tough decisions on who pays for the team.  Fans will be subject to this, as big city owners will not be willing to provide direct help needed in tough hockey markets.  Should the lockout end with more money being taken from the players, but no increased sharing between franchises, ticket prices and arena costs will skyrocket for us.

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