As one of the idiots who started Jay Cutler in
fantasy last night, I have to wonder exactly how valuable Bears QB Jay Cutler
will be this season and beyond. At first
glance, he inspires confidence. Before
the game Thursday night in Green Bay, Cutler won six straight starts. His injury last season preceded a free-fall
for the Bears from likely Super Bowl contender to January couch potatoes. Historically, he has not played worse than
any other quarterback you can imagine.
His years in Denver saw playoff berths and he led the Bears to the NFC
Championship Game two seasons ago.
Holistically, Cutler has talent and shows he can use it.
And yet, how many times do NFL fans care about the
holistic picture? The chief argument in
the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning debate centers around their performances when it
matters. If you know a Pats fan, you’ve
heard all the attempts to diminish Manning’s skill or talent. The argument rings immensely hollow unless we
analyze playoff performances. The same
debate raged in the 80s between Dan Marino and Joe Montana (ironically, Montana
beat Marino the one time the Dolphins made the Super Bowl under his watch). As usual, legacies revolve around
championships and postseasons. In short,
when opportunity comes knocking, greatness opens the door and seizes the moment.
And that’s why Jay Cutler will never be great should
he continue recent trends. In the NFC
North over the last ten years, everything goes through Lambeau Field. The Packers have won the division five of those
years. Even when they don’t win the division,
Green Bay threatens the competition.
Hence, the Super Bowl win two seasons ago. You want to win in the North? Beating Green Bay is imperative.
And the truth is Jay Cutler can’t do it. He can’t.
Against the Packers, Cutler does his best Greg Norman impression. In 7 games, he’s 1-6 with 8 touchdowns and 15
interceptions against Green Bay. I can
think of a few Redskins quarterbacks with better stats against a divisional
rival, and those teams were never good.
Last night’s game served as a reminder that the Bears, for all their
talent and hype, will not do well with Jay Cutler continuing to wilt when they
need him most.
Many in Chicagoland bring up the NFC Championship of
a few years ago, in which Cutler left the game early due to an injury that was never
truly fleshed out afterwards. The Pack
went on to win and advance to the Super Bowl in a 21-14 nailbiter, a shocking
score considering the Bears trotted Caleb Hanie into the starting QB role. Cutler sat on the sidelines in a jacket,
seemingly too hurt to play but not showing any kind of frustration or
hurt. Such activity did not endear him
to Chicago. Did I mention that game came
three weeks after the Bears missed an opportunity to eliminate the Packers from
playoff contention? Stop me if this sounds
familiar, but Green Bay sacked Cutler six times, forced two interceptions on
168 passing yards, and generally made his life miserable.
The same script played out last night. Cutler entered the game with confidence,
talking a big game about his new receiving weapons. He admonished the Packers during the week to
have “good luck” in trying to stop the Bears supposedly vaunted offense with
press coverage. Guess what? The Packers secondary barely played press
coverage, resorting to a soft Cover 2 that allowed more chances to intercept
throws, but could have been exploited. On most replays, Cutler had men open, but was
unable to find them.
Don’t get me wrong…there were human turnstiles
playing on the line for the Bears last night.
On most one-on-one matchups in the trenches, the Bears lost. Left tackle J’Marcus Webb had no luck with
Clay Matthews, and even the overrated A.J. Hawk and B.J. Raji ate dinner in the
backfield. The consistent complaint
against the Bears has always been their offensive line, and the prosecution’s
Exhibit A was entered into evidence last night.
The 32nd-ranked defense of a season ago dominated this game
after losing to the 49ers at home last week, hardly an offensive juggernaut. If Cutler will ever have intrinsic value, the
line must protect him better. Seven
sacks will not allow for any consistency.
Offensive coordinator Mike Tice also deserves blame
here. Late into the game, seemingly
aware his offensive dam looked half-built, Tice continued calling for deep
dropbacks for Cutler. My post on
Wednesday pointed out the value of quick throws in the Redskins game as a way
of calming a quarterback and establishing offensive rhythm. Tice refused to do so, preferring to let the
horror ensue. Also, why didn’t they run
the ball? San Fran dominated the pace in
Green Bay last week using the rushing attack.
That is not to say Cutler was not without his
opportunities, however. The passes he
did throw largely came off his back foot.
Almost every replay also showed open receivers in the flat or beneath
the coverage as safety valves. If he
gave those guys so much as a glance, no one saw. His check-down throws simply did not exist in
last night’s game, an unfortunate fact since Matt Forte can be counted on to
make a few guys miss as a receiver.
Cutler also made rash decisions, which led to picks. In the third quarter, Cutler forced a ball to
the middle of the field, off his back foot, that Charles Woodson
intercepted. In that situation, he needs
to unload the ball into Section 143.
There’s no need to force the issue that early. In the fourth quarter, his pass for Brandon
Marshall went into double coverage and was (amazingly, based on Cutler’s
postgame comments) intercepted. Bumping
his offensive lineman changed very little last night…Cutler missed open guys
and could have gotten rid of the ball quicker on numerous occasions.
If Cutler wants to make the next step, he needs to
beat the Packers more than once during his time in Chicago. This season, putting the Packers down a 0-2
hole would certainly have implications further down the road, especially since
the Packers would have started 0-2 in Lambeau for 2012. But Cutler seems either incapable or
unwilling to make the proper adjustments when playing the Packers. Last night’s performance, just one in a
litany of such debacles, does not bode well for the Bears.
Bit
#1: Calhoun’s Legacy
Jim Calhoun, the longtime coach at UConn, retired this
week at the age of 70. Recent health
troubles and NCAA sanctions all likely contributed to his decision, but
regardless Calhoun could be credited with the best architecture of a college
contender ever seen. Prior to his
arrival in Storrs, UConn had never advanced past the Sweet 16 in the NCAA
Tournament and hadn’t made the Dance for seven years. Calhoun’s second team won the NIT, and only
two years later the Huskies lost on a Christian Laettner buzzer-beater in the
Elite Eight. In four years, Calhoun
transformed UConn into a title contender, and a good one.
In 26 years, Calhoun’s team made the Tourney 18
times, winning three championships and creating a national powerhouse. In his last decade of work, however, rumors
labeled Calhoun as a recruiting guru who knew how to cut corners in order to
guarantee the best talent. Last season,
the NCAA suspended him for the first three Big East games due to recruiting
violations and an inability to “create an atmosphere of compliance.” That never sounds good or works very well
with legacies, but truthfully who will remember small controversies when
stacked against his achievements. While
sports media now will bring up his “complicated” legacy, Calhoun won three
national championships and carries far less baggage than Bob Knight, whose
closet skeletons carry lots of glare even today.
Unfortunately, he picked a poor time for UConn. With the exodus of good basketball programs
to the ACC, UConn likely will feel compelled to land in a power conference away
from the Big East. Without Calhoun, that
process may be more difficult. Should UConn
stay in the conference, the Big East will have lost Jim Boeheim and Calhoun
from its ranks in recent years. The
pedigree for the conference will likely run out, but Calhoun’s should be appreciated
for a long time as one of the best ever.
Bit
#2: Thievery in Baltimore
The Baltimore Orioles have a run differential of -20
this season. And they are first in their
division. Such a supposedly anemic
offense should not be ahead of the Yankees, at +95, or the Rays, at +76. But, they are, mainly because they just keep
winning. A 14-inning marathon last night
saw the Orioles win their 13th straight extra-innings contest, a
flabbergasting stat considering how tight the divisional race has been.
It would be very easy to discredit the Orioles as “not
that good” when they win so many close games and can’t seem to win every week
unless the game is close. But, for all
the logic of that position, September baseball includes lots of nuances, the
biggest of which being: you must win games, no style points given. And that’s been the Baltimore model, close
wins that rely on clutch play, both at the plate and the mound. For me, baseball would benefit a lot for “Hope
and Change.” Namely, the hope that the
AL East might change this season. If the
Red Sox and Yankees both miss the postseason, it will be the first such
incident since 1993, almost 20 years ago.
I’m on the Baltimore bandwagon, and you should be too.
Bit
#3: Lockout will solve nothing
On Saturday at midnight, the NHL will officially
lock out the players. A move that brings
great personal sadness to me also comes with trepidation and anger, mainly
directed at commissioner Gary Bettman.
For fans of hockey, the stoppage in 2004 was dreadful, but since then
hockey has becomes a little more burdensome on fans. The on-ice product looks better than before,
but checkbooks are opening more for hockey.
Since the lockout in 2004, ticket prices have
increased by an average of 39%. For you
economic buffs, that’s substantially above inflation, so let’s not diminish the
stat too much. Bettman, in recent
statements, wants to look out for the small market franchises. In his mind, taking money from the players
will go directly to the smaller markets, helping them to make ends meet. The players also bought into this idea with
their emergency fund concept, a good plan that would actually send money
directly to the Nashvilles and Phoenixes of the league.
But, if the owners are serious about the smaller
teams, they need to increase their own revenue sharing across all
franchises. The NFL can do this through
massive TV revenues, but for hockey local revenues provide the lifeblood for
smaller teams. Short of receiving more
money for bigger markets, owners will have to make tough decisions on who pays
for the team. Fans will be subject to
this, as big city owners will not be willing to provide direct help needed in
tough hockey markets. Should the lockout
end with more money being taken from the players, but no increased sharing
between franchises, ticket prices and arena costs will skyrocket for us.
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