Thursday, September 27, 2012

Ryder Cup 2012


One Sunday every two years I watch golf rather than football.  I substitute the obnoxious musings of Cris Collinsworth (or Solomon Wilcotts, who might be the worst analyst of them all) for the arrogant interjections of Johnny Miller.  The soothing sounds of birds, the outdoors, and golf balls overtake my revelry in the FedEx Field symphony.

Yes, it’s the Ryder Cup.  The competition features teams from both the United States and Europe in a three day tournament, all in pursuit of a small trophy that looks neither impressive nor worthwhile.  Yet, the Ryder Cup represents the pinnacle of golf’s international competition, a time when the paycheck doesn’t matter, only the team and country.  The drama we feel during the back nine on any given Sunday permeates every second of the tournament.  For three whole days, golfers play matches, where your stroke doesn’t matter, only that you beat the guy across from you.

Since 1999, the U.S. team has won once, four years ago at Valhalla in Kentucky.  Their team dominated that competition, but two years ago the Europeans reclaimed the Cup after a tense match between Graeme McDowell and Hunter Mahan that came down to the final two holes.  And that’s another reason to watch: almost every year, the competition comes down to the final two or three singles matches on Sunday afternoon.  The War by the Shore in 1991, the miracle at Brookline in 1999, and the aforementioned Celtic Manor contest on 2010 all serve as excellent reminders of why the competition deserves your attention.

With that, I will get to my thoughts on the respective teams:

United States

On paper, the current iteration of the U.S. team looks to be our deepest in a long time.  Ten of the twelve sit in the top 17 of Golf’s World rankings, and have played very well up to this point.  11 have posted a top ten in the last month, and seven finished in the top ten at the Tour Championship last week.  Brandt Snedeker enters the competition off his momentous FedEx Cup victory in which he shot an under-par round on Sunday to beat out seasoned superstars like Tiger and Rory.  Webb Simpson and Bubba Watson both won majors this year and made the final 30 of the FedEx Cup, a solid punctuation mark on a successful year.  Matt Kucher won The Players, Jason Dufner and Zach Johnson both won twice on tour this year, while Tiger, Phil Mickelson, Steve Stricker, and Furyk largely speak for themselves.

Worries: While the U.S. looks to have a good team, the returning players have not historically played well in the competition.  Only Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker can boast a .500 record at 3-3-1 over their careers, and that’s the highest win percentage on the U.S. team.  To that end, the American hopes center around the rookies Simpson, Snedeker, Dufner, and Keegan Bradley, the 2010 PGA champ.  While all four guys had very good seasons, the pressure can mount on these players easily.

The Guy Who Must Step Up: Not surprisingly, I have to focus on the big guns here.  Tiger has not dominated his Cup performances (13-14-2), but he lost only once in 2010.  His pairing with Steve Stricker, likely the only reason Stricker made the roster as a captain’s pick, has borne fruit in recent years.  Look for Tiger and Stricker to play together every session, unless captain Davis Love III holds one (or both) out.

The real goat, though, has been Phil Mickelson.  Lefty has a record of 11-17-6 in this tournament, not befitting a man of his immense talent.  In the last two Ryder Cups, Mickelson has won only once when paired with a partner.  With his personality and strategic focus (he’s been known to lay out every shot weeks ahead of time for some tournaments), that needs to change.  Captains consistently portray him as horse to be ridden, but he has been unable to shoulder that burden the last two Cups.  Should Phil play as badly as he has, 2012 might go wrong in a hurry.  For the big guys, like Tiger and Phil, their success will keep pressure off the less experienced team members.

Dark Horse: Back in the day, Corey Pavin elevated his game every year for the Ryder Cup.  The man, quite frankly, possessed a killer instinct that pushed him to beat his opponents every year.  His singles win against Richardson in ’91, punctuated by a great bunker shot on 17, still brings chills to my spine when watching it.  Every year, there should be a Corey Pavin remake (preferably matching Pavin’s fantastic 90s mustache).

I’m pegging Jason Dufner to fill that role.  Dufner consistently impresses analysts and fans alike with his mental and emotional consistency on the course.  Nothing fazes him…he almost won three straight tournaments mid-season and his “I’m ordering a pizza” expression never changed. That’s the guy I tie my hopes to.

Another rookie to watch will be Snedeker.  While generally it’s tough to come back from a big win like he’s had and do well in the Ryder Cup, Snedeker makes almost every putt from within 8 feet.  He’s also the best putter on Tour, ranking first in strokes gained from putting during the majority of the season, not to mention averaging only 27.92 putts a round.  In match play, those putts have a higher importance, and I can see him pulling a few rabbits out of his hat on the greens.

Best Partnership: While I’m tempted to put Woods/Stricker and label that the best, Dustin Johnson and Matt Kuchar could easily form an unbeatable team this year.  Johnson can pound the ball, while Kuchar is known as an excellent iron player who can hit it close.  I’m not sure how they would get along from a personal perspective, but in alternate shot (traditionally a weak spot for the Americans), they have really good ability.

In addition, expect Simpson/Bubba to play well as a tandem.  They went 3-1 in last year’s President’s Cup and will likely provide a strong base for the team portions.

Europeans

The Europeans come in with some question marks.  On their team, only Nicholas Colsearts has never played in the Ryder Cup, but overall the team loses depth as you scroll down the list.  Martin Kaymer, a PGA champ, has not played well at all this year after rising to the top ranking in the world a couple of years ago.  He sneaked onto the team and could be a liability for the Europeans come Sunday.  Another shocking entrant is Paul Lawrie who, at 43, strikes me as one of the most unlikely Ryder Cup participants in the last few years.  He’s played great throughout the year (contended at The Open Championship in July) but only has one Ryder Cup under his belt, meaning age does not equate to experience in this case.  Of course, Rory, Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Graeme McDowell, and Justin Rose are all top 10 golfers this year, so they provide firepower for the team.  Add in Sergio Garcia, back on the team after missing 2010, and there is still some talent there.

Cause for Optimism: These guys might be labeled underdogs, but Europe remains extremely shifty in Ryder Cups.  In years past, predicting their play has never been easy, as they consistently find ways to win the Cup despite a supposed talent gap.  All but three on the 2012 team boast winning records in Ryder Cups, and the talent at the top should pair easily with the lower tier golfers.  I still expect some teams and individuals to throw away matches for Europe, but that will come down to how mtachups shake out.  If Kaymer were to be paired with Keegan Bradley, for example, he might be able to steal a victory.  I’m hopeful Paul Lawire and Jim Furyk meet as elder statesmen on Sunday, but given Furyk’s late round troubles this season that kind of matchup could also favor Europe.

The Guy Who Must Step Up: Believe it or not, I’m pegging Colsearts as the man who might hold the key to Europe’s victory.  As a captain’s pick, Colsearts brings impeccable match play abilities, winning the Volvo Match Play Championship back in April (beating Justin Rose, Paul Lawrie, and Brandt Snedeker along the way).  He also contended at The Open Championship this year, finishing tied for seventh.  Remember him tied for the lead during Saturday of the U.S. Open?  Same guy, same swing, same Belgian.   Colsearts averaged 317.7 off the tee on the European Tour this year, so he can provide the power necessary in a good alternate shot and fourball team.  If he does very well, the Europeans have a much better chance to overshadow the potential holes in their lineup.

Dark Horses: Europe’s roster might not look deep, but Ian Poulter and Justin Rose can be unbeatable in this competition.  Poulter, a fiery personality and tough competitor, has a gaudy 8-3 record despite never entering the competition with much fanfare.  He’s as good as anyone in scrambling and winning matches.  He provides enough experience to do well in a team and enough willpower to win tight singles matches.

For Rose, his game remains very steady.  In his second Cup appearance, Rose enters ranked in the top 5 in the world and off a successful performance in the FedEx Cup, finishing second at the Tour Championship.  In his last Ryder Cup, Rose went 3-1 to help the European cause in an ultimately losing effort, but his style of play could win a few matches while inspiring a few yawns.

Best Partnership: A noted advantage of the European team remains their ability to pair effectively.  Rory McIlroy and Graeme McDowell, personal friends, have shown an ability to keep matches very close, losing one match in 2010 1-down and halving their other contest.  To that end, the McIlroy/McDowell tandem could cause serious problems for the U.S.

But, the best historical pairing will put Luke Donald and Sergio Garcia alongside one another.  Good buddies like the Northern Irishmen, Donald/Garcia have a record of 4-0-0 in the Ryder Cup, making them nigh unbeatable together.  Only Woods/Stricker comes close to matching that on the American side, but it remains very likely Garcia and Donald will not leave each other’s sight all weekend.  That will be a tough pairing to face from the American side.

Finally, Ian Poulter and Justin Rose paired together in 2008 and went 2-1-0 together.  They will likely also be paired again and, given their mutual affinity as Englishmen, will provide what I envision as a tough out for the Americans.

Final Prediction

While the singles matches receive the most hype, the Ryder Cup is won through a strong foundation in the team sessions.  Since 1997, the team leading heading into the singles portion has won all but once (the Comeback in 1999).  The one tie, in 2002, led to a European romp in singles.  For the Americans, they need to reach Saturday night either tied or ahead.  While their team poses more depth in singles play, the pressure will mount on those guys Sunday if the U.S. must dig itself out of a hole.  Above all else, the U.S. need at least 1 ½ points in each session…in 2010 Saturday morning offered only ½ point for the Americans, which proved to represent a key part of the difference at the end.

Still, I foresee a fairly equal competition, in which case I have to go with the home team.  U.S. 14.5, Europe 13.5

Bit #1: Finally the madness ends

By now, you’ve all heard we have reached a merciful end to the Replacement Era of NFL referees.  Thankfully, the Week 4 games will now have professional crews officiating, a welcome sign after the debacle of Monday night’s game in Seattle.  For the NFL, I’m glad the apocalyptic situation many sports fans hoped for actually came true.  Not only did the Monday night ridiculousness force the NFL to bring back the refs, but the league must now confront its image as an organization willing to cut corners for more money.  Fans will still enjoy the NFL’s product, but we as a group learned more about the inner philosophy of league executives and owners in the last three weeks than could have ever been hoped for.

The truth remains…the NFL attempted to cut the corner here, gambling that by driving the ball over the heard of zebras, their ball could still land in the fairway.  From this point on, however, the NFL now knows the integrity of the game not only matters but can change the public’s perception.  In the United States, we feed off controversial statements and images, so the endearing legacy of the replacement refs was bound to bring in huge ratings on Monday night.  The public will never stop watching football, but at least now we have our eyes wide open to the league as an institution.  The on-field product suffered due to a money grab by the league, and they were justly burned for it.  The lockout last summer, another example of greed in the NFL, did not affect the on-filed product, leading many of us to still be in denial as to what makes the NFL powers-that-be tick.

Thankfully, we all know now that money will never stop running the league and talks louder than any blogger, pundit, talking head, or player. 

Bit #2: Five weeks of college football already?

Three days from now, we will have gone through five weeks of college football.  Sounds amazing, but some teams already need to reboot their seasons and, thankfully, have time to do so.  The obvious choice, Oklahoma, must get over its disappointment and understand that if they can win out, a national championship berth is not out of the question.  Of course, being mauled by Kansas State at home does not bode well for this team, but considering the QB for K-State looks to be the Heisman frontrunner, they should not feel so bad.  Virginia Tech is another reboot project, who needs to coast through the Coastal Division (see what I did there?) to pose any kind of threat to Florida State for the conference championship.  Above all else, the losses to inferior teams can’t continue for the Hokies.  Given that they achieved that last year until the end of the year, Tech can still make itself relevant.

The Big Ten as a conference needs help.  Very few of their teams look to be dangerous, and the only one that could pose problems can’t play in the postseason.  After rough losses by both Michigan and Michigan State, the struggles of Nebraska and Wisconsin, and the significant dropoff in depth, the conference will likely have a forgettable 2012 season.  For the rest of the year, Big Ten games likely won’t mean much to the national title picture, unless Northwestern somehow goes undefeated.

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