Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Predicting the NFC East


1.      New York Giants

The Skinny: Yeah, yeah, yeah I’m taking chalk here but as defending Super Bowl champions who can’t?  The Giants D-line featuring six premier pass rushers will be the best in the division this year and possibly in the league.  Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Chris Canty can all record at least 7 sacks this year on that line.  On offense, Victor Cruz surprised the world last year with his playmaking ability, and will still enjoy success as defenses attempt to balance Cruz and his counterpart Hakeem Nicks.  The man throwing to them, Eli Manning, had a career year last year, directing seven fourth quarter comebacks.  He has finally pierced the top tier of quarterbacks in the league, and after the last Giant Super Bowl in 2008 Big Blue trounced opposition in the next season.  I trust Eli’s ability this year to win big games, comebacks, and a divisional crown.

The Gaping Holes: For all the talk of the offense, the running game needs to reset in 2012.  The drafting of rookie David Wilson adds another bruiser in the backfield to complement Ahmad Bradshaw, but Bradshaw will need to stay healthy regardless.  Foot problems plagued his last few seasons, so a reasonably full season for Bradshaw will help the offensive balance.  The real issue for the Giants rests in the trenches.  Left tackle Will Beatty missed six games last year and has not lived up to his potential.  His blind side position adds to those concerns about New York.  At other positions along the line, only Chris Snee could be considered above average.  Look for the Giants to have some difficulty protecting Manning this year.  On scheduling, the Giants play five playoff teams in the last six weeks of the season, so getting into the NFC playoffs could be tough.

Key Games: Sep. 5 vs. Dallas, Sep. 30 at Philadelphia, Nov. 4 vs. Pittsburgh, Nov. 25 vs. Green Bay, Dec. 9 vs. New Orleans, Dec. 16 at Atlanta, Dec. 23 at Baltimore, Dec. 30 vs. Philadelphia

Prediction: Given their hard schedule and inconsistency over the years, I had a tough time pinpointing the Giants’ final record.  The team could miss the playoffs in the packed NFC, but 10-6 would also not surprise me.  I see that as most likely hoping injuries don’t afflict the team too much.

2.      Philadelphia Eagles

The Skinny: Speaking of great defensive lines, the Eagles line will take national attention this year away from New York.  Justin Babin, Trent Cole, Cullen Jenkins, Fletcher Cox, etc. can really pressure opponents.  Last year, Babin recorded 14 sacks when the team rushed less than four.  Unlike the Giants, the Eagles also have linebackers to stuff the run after adding Demeco Ryans in the offseason at middle linebacker.  Ryans anchored the group at Houston last year, so the run defense and pass rush might be more improved this season.  On offense, LeSean McCoy looks to channel his inner Barry Sanders after a career year last year running the ball.  Wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin look to be fully healthy and happy, providing weapons for Michael Vick, himself an explosive quarterback.

The Gaping Holes: Anyone with a football pulse knows the health of Michael Vick will decide the season.  Nick Folk at backup played well in the preseason, but if I were him I wouldn’t get too complacent.  Vick’s style of play, especially in a tough defensive division, opens him up to potentially crippling injuries.  Unfortunately, the offensive line suffered a huge blow losing Jason Peter for the year at right tackle.  Replacement Demetress Bell will need to step up for Peters.  On defense, the safety position has little stability.  Nate Allen showed flashes last year but Jaiquwan Jarret will need to improve in his second year to keep the Eagles in tough games.  For Vick, he must be healthy in the middle of the season, as Philly plays Pittsburgh, Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Dallas in a row.

Key Games: Sep. 16 vs. Baltimore, Sep. 30 vs. New York Giants, Oct. 7 at Pittsburgh, Oct. 14 vs. Detroit, Oct. 28 vs. Atlanta, Nov. 5 at New Orleans, Nov. 11 vs. Dallas, Dec. 30 at New York Giants

Prediction: It’s tough to bank on Vick being healthy this year.  He will likely play 12 games at most this season, and should the Eagles manage 9 wins of those they will win the division.  But, the middle of the season presents serious problems, especially given the weaknesses of the Eagle deep secondary.  A record as high as 11-5 isn’t unrealistic, but 9-7 makes most sense given the questions out there right now.  Which does mean the last week of the season against the Giants will decide the divisional crown.

3.      Dallas Cowboys

The Skinny: I hear the window closing for Dallas.  But, for 2012, the Cowboys might also compete.  Tony Romo remains, the criticism of him notwithstanding, an elite quarterback.  He did more last year with very little on the receiving end than anyone expected.  That the Cowboys drafted a prima donna at wide receiver shouldn’t be blamed on him.  That said, if Dez Bryant and Miles Austin can stay healthy and content, Romo has weapons at his disposal.  His safety blanket, Jason Witten at tight end, suffered a potentially dangerous spleen injury in the preseason, but will be back to provide good depth for Romo.  On defense, DeMarcus Ware returns after a 19.5 sack performance in 2011, but the real improvement comes in the defensive backfield.  The Cowboys traded up to draft talented cornerback Morris Claiborne and signed Brandon Carr to bolster an exceptionally weak pass defense.  Those additions will help Dallas maintain leads this season.

The Gaping Holes: As much as I want to believe in DeMarco Murray, he was injured early last season after bursting onto the stage.  For Dallas, the running game will receive some attention but the true strength lies in the aerial game.  Still, Murray has no track record of health based on last year, despite his fantastic stats.  Injuries also shadow the receivers, as Miles Austin continues to battle hamstring and ankle injuries from previous seasons.  Dez Bryant also suffered a few smaller injuries last year, but for him the question remains on his commitment to the new security rules placed on him by the organization.  Bryant’s ability to reach his potential will have a large impact on the 2012 season.  Like the Eagles, however, the O-line scares many in Dallas.  Tyron Smith switches to the other side of the line this year, which might cause protection problems.  Phil Costa needs to improve at center, and the new veteran guards on the line will need to do better than whoever played at those spots last year.

Key Games: Sep. 5 at New York Giants, Oct. 14 at Baltimore, Nov. 11 at Philadelphia, Dec. 16 vs. Pittsburgh, Dec. 23 vs. New Orleans

Prediction: Many want to talk about Dallas winning the division, which won’t happen.  For all the skill of Romo, his protection will be Swiss-like this season.  I also refuse to get on the Dez Bryant bandwagon, since I’m convinced he needs a change of scenery to do better (like Cris Carter in the 80s).  At the end, can the offensive line stop the defensive fronts of the Giants and Eagles?  I bet not.  I see 8-8 and more chirping in the offseason about how much “America’s Team” needs to improve.  Personally, America should get a new team in my mind.

4.      Washington Redskins

The Skinny: Speaking of America’s Team, at least the Native Americans are represented in Washington (albeit in the most politically incorrect way possible).  The hype surrounds Robert Griffin III, who I admit should play well but will need help.  The strength of the team will be the front seven on defense.  London Fletcher, Ryan Kerrigan, and Brian Orakpo are playmakers in a 3-4 defensive scheme that will swarm against the rush.  Given the weak offensive lines in the division, this year will show lots of defensive prowess for the ‘Skins.  On offense, the running by committee approach doesn’t excite but might show results.  Alfred Morris constantly falls forward, justifying his spot on the final roster, and Roy Helu/Evan Royster will provide a hot hand in a given week.  Keep in mind, RGIII can reach the corner of the defense as well, meaning he could put up Cam Newton-like rushing yards in his rookie season.  Passing yards might be a different story, though tight end Fred Davis provides Griffin with a safety blanket.

The Gaping Holes: Unfortunately, there are more holes than strengths.  The biggest question will be if the new receivers in town will justify the money sent their way.  While Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan made headlines as acquisitions, both are overpaid and relatively unproven (especially in Morgan’s case).  I’m seeing Leonard Hankerson to emerge as a receiving threat, rendering Morgan irrelevant and gone after this season.  Santana Moss continues to age at wide receiver, but with the new additions he can play the slot position more.  The defensive backs restore a false sense of confidence in me.  Josh Wilson showed ability last year, and Cedric Griffin played well in the preseason, but Deangelo Hall can’t live up to the hype.  He chatters more than he covers, and doesn’t create enough turnovers to dissuade quarterbacks from exposing him.  At safety, I have been outspoken in doubting Brandon Merriweather, who I predict will follow Adam Archuleta’s disappearing act of a few years ago.  But, of utmost importance will be the offensive line.  Trent Williams looks poised for a better season than 2011, but from there the picture looks cloudy.  Will Montgomery, Kory Lichtensteiger, Chris Chester, and Tyler Polumbus round out the line.  If a non-DC resident recognizes any of those names, you deserve a gold star.  Put it this way: one injury on the line dooms the whole offense and, likely, any chance for the Shanaplan to continue.

Key Games: Sep. 16 at St. Louis, Sep. 23 vs. Cincinnati, Oct. 14 vs. Minnesota, Nov. 4 vs. Carolina, all divisional games

Prediction: A less talented team beat the Giants last year in DC, so the Skins will surprise some team somewhere along the way.  Personally, I bet it’s Cincinnati in September.  At their bye, the Skins should have four wins, but from there the gauntlet emerges.  Dallas twice, Philly twice, Giants, and Ravens grace the last six weeks of the Redskins season.  For that reason, I’m picking my boys to finish 6-10 with signs of progress for the future.  As for Shanahan, jury’s out.  He needs a Terrell Davis lookalike to save his job.

Bit #1: A huge change needed for college football

Much has been made of this topic, but college football starts with a whimper every year and I’m tired of it.  The best game of the week was an ACC showdown that thankfully was broadcast nationally from Blacksburg, but an 84-0 rout on the week recap looks awful.  While I support FCS schools in their bids to receive payouts, that’s why there’s a second week to the season.  Fans have been starved for football for seven months at least…give us more than Alabama-Michigan (for some reason, the media and NCAA continue to promote SEC-Big Ten matchups that always end predictably).  Ask top 25 schools to play each other.  How would a USC-Clemson matchup hurt anyone?  Boise State’s game against Michigan State also impressed me from an entertainment perspective, so let’s have more games between team ranked 5-20.

As for Savannah State, the loser of an 84-0 rout in Stillwater last Saturday, who can blame them for scheduling Oklahoma State and Florida State?  Cashing almost $1 million in game checks will carry that athletic program for the year.  Sure, the school has no chance to compete necessarily, but big money leads to big boosters, big facilities, and bigger recruiting.  Before the days of Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech followed a similar model.  The blame should be placed on the bigger schools, who feel as if they “need” a tune-up game against inferior competition.  My recommendation: play some competition, win, and prove you belong.  I am hopeful the new playoff system incentivizes BCS schools to inflate their nonconference schedules, for the benefit of fans.

Bit #2: Yankee Doodle Dandy Dud

The awful title of this Bit notwithstanding, the Yankees have dominated the AL East this year.  Owners of baseball’s best record at one point, the Yanks are now tied atop the division with the Orioles.  They’ve lost a ten game lead since July 18 and must contend with Baltimore at the top and Tamp Bay only 1.5 games behind.  The Bombers have a 29-28 record in the last two months, certainly not befitting their talent.  So, who’s to blame?

It must be Brian Cashman, the Yankees GM.  He bet the farm on players that hit home runs and not much else.  Certainly, Curtis Granderson’s recent slump hurts, as do the injuries to A-Rod and Teixeira.  But, the team has a .250 average with runners in scoring position this year.  The pitching has not been much better, with Sabathia throwing a 3.43 ERA and Hiroki Kuroda showing signs of deterioration over his last two starts.  Let’s not get too hasty dooming New York, but there’s no way Yanks fans can’t look at Cashman for this.  His trade for Miguel Pineda this season hasn’t worked out in any sense of the word, as Jesus Montero continues to play well in Seattle.  The huge emphasis on long-ball hitters might carry a team for a while, but by now the weaknesses are showing.

Bit #3: I am tired of the Tyrann Mathieu story

It seems each day the sports media outlets talk about Tyrann Mathieu’s future.  No joke, ESPN just took time out of their day to tell us he will be enrolling at LSU for class.  As if we could care!  Football starts this week, LSU doesn’t seem to be slowing down, and Mathieu’s transgressions are his own fault.  Anything more that needs to be said can be reserved for the National Enquirer.  At this point, Mathieu will not play football this year and thus has no bearing on the college football season.  As great as he was last year, no one player deserves this kind of attention that overlooks the rest of the game.  Especially when that player is, essentially, a screw-up.

Bit #4: Sad proceedings in the NHL

You all can expect my next blog post to detail the NHL labor stoppage, a travesty of immense proportions that will scuttle any chance of hockey’s resurgence in North America.  Be ready.

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