Predicting the AFC West

The predictions for the AFC West range all over the map.  Plenty of folks are star-studded with Peyton Manning, the biggest free agent pickup in history.  But the Chargers, Chiefs, and Raiders all bring their own strengths into play.  The AFC West race could easily be a four team race this year, with no one club totally out of the picture for the divisional crown.

1.      Denver Broncos

The Skinny: Amazingly, I am one of those guy who sees Peyton Manning and envisions great success.  Sure, Manning has less zip on his ball than before, but his football mind rests second to none.  His play in Indianapolis speaks for itself.  While overrating the defense became common in 2011, the edges of the defensive unit are nothing short of great.  DE Elvis Dumervil, OLB D.J. Williams, OLB Von Miller, and CB Champ Bailey all anchor a unit that will keep Denver in the race all year.  In less conventional areas, Matt Prater accounted for 49% of Tebowmania last year with his late-game field goals.  The team, however, rests fully on Manning.  Can he run the offense properly?  Will the running game do enough to soften defenses?  Early indications point to Manning’s proficiency on offense in Denver.

The Gaping Holes: As great as Manning might be, his health remains a nagging concern.  Big hits on him in the backfield will contort his surgically-repaired neck, so QB protection requires top billing in Denver this year.  While I mentioned the edges of the defense, the middle portion of that unit has plenty of questions.  Ty Warren and Justin Bannan at defensive tackle both bring injury and stability concerns to the unit, while middle linebacker Joe Mays will have to re-create a breakout season last year.  Run stopping could be a concern as the season wears on.  Lastly, the run game must be good enough to relinquish Manning’s burden.  That sounds like a potentially tall order, but look for Willis McGahee to try.

Key Games: The Broncos have the toughest schedule in the NFL, playing teams from the AFC North, NFC South, and Houston.  Sep. 9 vs. Pittsburgh, Sep. 17 at Atlanta, and Sep. 23 vs. Houston means Denver will be lucky to have two wins.  Key games from there: Oct. 7 at New England, Oct. 28 vs. New Orleans, and Dec. 16 at Baltimore round out their nondivision schedule.

Prediction: As much as I want to believe in the Broncos, their gauntlet of a schedule means the year will be tough.  But, the Broncos will win enough in the division to win the crown with a 10-6 record.  As for the playoffs, don’t look for this team to make a deep run, but Manning will return to form.

2.      San Diego Chargers

The Skinny: Somehow, the Chargers were in the divisional race last year after an extremely underwhelming season.  Philip Rivers should rebound after throwing lots of interceptions last year, even with the departure of Vincent Jackson in the offseason.  Also, look for Ryan Mathews to build on his Pro Bowl season in 2011 with the backfield no longer shared between him and Mike Tolbert.  On defense, rookie Melvin Ingram impressed in college and looks to rush passers the entire season.  Eric Weddle provides excellent safety play in the middle of the field, and the Chargers overall added more than a dozen free agents to the team.  The new blood should pay dividends in the locker room and on the field.

The Gaping Holes: Without the MVP-caliber play of Philip Rivers, the Chargers will be much lower on this list.  His primary receivers of 2011 are either gone or bring their own problems.  Antonio Gates hasn’t repeated his 2007 heroics and misses almost five games per season with nagging lower body injuries.  The worst part of this team centers on the offensive line.  The Chargers used a total of 13 different lineman last year, entirely too much inconsistency to protect an All-Pro quarterback.  That group will need to vastly improve, especially against a tough schedule that features three straight weeks against the defensively oriented AFC North.

Key Games: Oct. 7 at New Orleans, Oct. 15 vs. Denver, Nov. 18 at Denver, Nov. 25 vs. Baltimore, Dec. 2 vs. Cincinnati, Dec. 9 at Pittsburgh

Prediction: Too many questions for the Chargers, and whenever the O-line looks shaky the team looks shaky.  Additionally, this year represents the last of the Turner-Smith regime unless the team reaches the playoffs.  Norv Turner has no chance to keep his job unless Philip Rivers has an otherworldly season.  The running game and defense are not good enough to work by themselves, so the aerial attack holds the key.  An 8-8 record looks likely.

3.      Kansas City Chiefs

The Skinny: Everyone loves the Chiefs this year, mainly because on paper all facets look good.  Two years ago, the Chiefs surprisingly won the division before plunging off the cliff last season.  Matt Cassel heads the offense after losing part of 2011 to a hand injury, and his arsenal might be Harpers Ferry-esque.  Dwayne Bowe, Jonathan Baldwin, Steve Breaston, and Dexter McCluster will line up on the outside, while tight ends Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss will find soft zones in the defense.  Jamaal Charles returns after missing all of last year, but now Peyton Hillis backs him up as a bruising second option.  On defense, Eric Berry returns at safety after missing 2011 while cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Stanford Routt provide good pass coverage.  Linebackers Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali can swarm with the best of them, meaning the defense will be stout.

The Gaping Holes: Sounds great doesn’t it?  Now you know why so many “experts” pick Kansas City in this division.  Well, the first problem rests on the defensive line.  Glenn Dorsey, Tyson Jackson, and Dontari Poe are all first round draft picks that are boom-or-bust type players.  Dorsey and Jackson particularly drained valuable picks from the team for the same area, and Poe’s 2011 selection adds to the mystery.  Despite the ability of the linebackers, the D-line could potentially be very underwhelming.  The second problem could be Cassel.  Yes, he played great two years ago, but for some reason I don’t trust him.  He will need to spread the ball to all available options for the team to be helpful.  In truth, the injury bug hit Kansas City so hard in 2011 that nothing can be determined about how the team will play this year.

Key Games: Sep. 30 vs. San Diego, Oct. 7 vs. Baltimore, Nov. 1 at San Diego, Nov. 25 vs. Denver, Dec. 30 at Denver

Prediction: While the game against Denver in Week 17 could have huge implications, my ability to trust this team continues to wane.  Without a better QB, Kansas City likely will wallow in this division but still compete.  A 8-8 record looks likely, since I bet the holdout of Dwayne Bowe this offseason affects how he plays in the new offensive scheme.

4.      Oakland Raiders

The Skinny: Another team receiving lots of attention this offseason, the Raiders bring in a transitional regime.  General manager Reggie McKenzie ushered in a new era by firing Hue Jackson last year.  First year head coach Dennis Allen will have his hands full keeping the Raiders in contention, but the division looks so close on paper a resurgence in Oakland is possible.  Carson Palmer plays his first full season in Oakland and should improve as a result.  Coach Allen also brings a new defensive slant to the team, a marked change from the Al Davis years.  Thus, expect the defense to have more freedom than prior seasons.  The Raiders also have the best special teams unit in football.  Sebastian Janikowski has hit 84% of his field goals since 2010, and punter Shane Lechler has ranked in the top five for net punting yardage over the last two seasons.  Return man Jacoby Ford also has excellent speed and spark.

The Gaping Holes: With a new defensive scheme, expect the Raiders to have some problems adjusting under the lights.  A new offensive coordinator with the West Coast offense also might create issues, especially for a strong arm such as Palmer’s.  But, Palmer has expressed pleasure with the new ideas.  The real question for Oakland centers around Darren McFadden, a star running back who cannot seem to stay healthy.  With McFadden in the lineup, Oakland went 4-2 last season.  The offense runs through him and his breackneck speed will provide more chances for Palmer to pick apart defenses.  Still, he must be durable this year, or may find himself out of a job in favor of a more reliable body in the backfield.

Key Games: Sep. 30 at Denver, Oct. 14 at Atlanta, Oct. 28 at Kansas City, Nov. 11 at Baltimore, Dec. 6 vs. Denver, Dec. 16 vs. Kansas City, Dec. 30 at San Diego

Prediction: I fully expect a four team race this year, but by the end Oakland will be last with a 7-9 record.  New offensive and defensive systems do not bode well for most teams, and Oakland will be no exception.  Also, this will be Year 3 of my personal fantasy experiment with Darren McFadden, and nothing tells me he will stay healthy for the necessary time this season.  Valiant effort, but Oakland falls short.