Has Football Begun Its Decline?

Over the past weekend, Devon Walker, a player for Tulane University, suffered a cervical spine fracture after a collision in a game against Tulsa.  In the ensuing rush, medical staff gave him CPR on the field as a preventive measure, and many feared he had died on the field.  In a terror-inspiring moment, some media outlets reported him dead or, at the very least, paralyzed.  Thankfully, Walker remains in stable condition with some feeling in his extremities and very much alive.

That kind of moment chills me to the bone.  Not only does it shake us to see a young man almost die on the athletic field, but the prospects for football also suffer.  Considering the huge viewership numbers for the NFL season, the above statement sounds very strong.    But, let’s consider a few things and realize that football, as we know it, looks to be on a precipice, about to plunge into obscurity. 

1.      Lawsuits at the highest level.  Current lawsuits by former NFL players currently stand in court, alleging the NFL knowingly withheld information linking concussions to permanent brain damage.  From a legal perspective, the case will likely reach a settlement and much will proceed as before.  But, the bigger public relations backlash can be felt now.  Last week, ESPN ran a weeklong Sportscenter series on the perils of playing football, complete with stories of paralyzed high school, college, and NFL players.  Interviews with former stars like Jamal Lewis, a 2000-yard rusher who often forgets questions posed to him during interviews, have become commonplace.  As a football fan, it’s tough to miss those TV segments.

2.      Concussion-related deaths in sports.  Equally unavoidable: the many concussion-related deaths in recent years at the professional level.  A previous blog post of mine theorized the recent death of linebacker Junior Seau stemmed directly from his concussions as a player.  I wrote that small piece with very little evidentiary support, but the spate of deaths in the NFL and NHL do not bode well.  Many NHL enforcers, like Bob Probert, who suffered many concussions, have passed away suddenly in recent years.  Seau’s death, a likely candidate for the same trend, remains the highest profile death.  Still, combining news of these deaths with current lawsuits in the NFL, and all of a sudden concussions sprang onto the NFL’s radar as an area of key concern.

3.      Penalties directed towards concussions.  With the lawsuits (and deaths) in mind, the NFL implemented penalties that would sanction in-game collisions deemed too dangerous to the head.  Helmet-to-helmet hits on defenseless receivers, a staple of past legends like Ronnie Lott and Dick Butkus, are now illegal.  Any contact to the head of the quarterback, even if that contact does not necessarily drive the QB to the ground, will be flagged as “roughing the passer” in today’s NFL.  What’s more, the league also suspends those who initiate such vicious hits, often for multiple games.

4.      Bounties.  After the Saints scandal this offseason, revelations came out from many former NFL players that every locker room since the dawn of time used pay-for-play systems.  Whether those extended to “bounties” looks doubtful, especially given the recent lifting of player suspensions in New Orleans, but does the public really care?  As we all know, the public will believe anything.

You likely know about those trends.  If you didn’t, now you do.  What those trends tell me (and should tell you), is the dangers of football are slowly being uncovered.  With the benefits of modern science come harsh realities.  Namely, what many fans enjoy about football; the hits, acrobatics, and collisions, suddenly has an imputed danger.  While any play can result in a sudden injury on the field, most science points to a more general conclusion: every play will inexorably lead to widespread physical decline.

That realization, suspected by many but now substantiated scientifically, has huge implications for the game.  Do parents want to expose their kids to a life of premature stiffness, perpetual sores, and possible amnesia?  Former NFL stars, like Kurt Warner and Terry Bradshaw, have expressed publicly their children will likely not be playing football.  Supposing overall football players at the youth levels will decrease makes sense given the added context now facing parents of football talents.  (Of course, such arguments do not account for the future earnings potential of youth football stars, which could be enough to persuade parents to allow their children onto the field.)

Perhaps more distressing, however, than the shrinking pool of future stars could be the rising insurance costs of high school football.  In the age of expanding health care, the mind does not struggle to imagine health insurance companies involving themselves with football and other contact sports.  Consider if high schools will be liable for those health insurance costs directed from football?  For lower income areas, that cost might be enough to severely cut, or even eliminate, high school football teams.  Might not make a huge dent in the pool of future players, considering the common practice of expensive high schools recruiting impoverished athletes, but an increased financial burden will definitely affect the choice of parents.

Related to the start-up costs, bigger and better equipment, like the NFL continues to research, will be costly.  Should equipment standards percolate from the NFL to youth football, bigger pads and more protective helmets will incur a higher cost for parents and organizers.  An interesting idea, however, would be to decrease the size of pads and efficiency of helmets.

Admittedly, that sounds far-fetched, but if equipment were less “safe,” wouldn’t players take less risks to preserve themselves?  The movement to reform hits in youth football towards leading with the shoulder, as opposed to the heads, reached a crescendo this past year.  Those calls would be strengthened by a simultaneous drive to increase risks of big hits through decreased padding.  Of course, gruesome injuries will still happen, but the current trajectory of football suggests an NFLer will have to die on the field before players begin to take notice and reform their hits.  Sounds draconian, but such a move might actually work.

You can forget that if you like, since the Houston Astros have a better chance of winning their division in the next five years than the NFL does of decreasing pads.  So, what are the options for the sport?  Football looks to be losing support of parents, for health as well as financial reasons.  Former players (over 2,000 of them) have revolted against the sport, choosing to besiege the league in court.  The inherent danger of football can only increase with more scientific discoveries, so either the sport will need to adjust or go the way of boxing.  Keep playing fantasy football folks…widespread fan participation could be the only saving grace for football.

Bit #1: Redskins Week 1 Recap

In the future, a Bit will be devoted each week to the Redskins performance.  As far as which Bit it will be depends on how well the team plays. 

Many want to praise RGIII this week, and I can’t blame them.  But the underlying cause of his success rests on the offensive line, a unit I have lampooned time and time again this offseason.  The line allowed only one sack the entire game and blocked effectively for running backs, spearheading 3.5 yards/carry for the day.  Rushers gained 7 of the 20 Washington first downs, a surprising number considering the main carries went to Alfred Morris, a rookie with supposedly limited talent.  All I’m saying is, Barry Sanders wasn’t exactly running behind the line on Sunday in New Orleans.  I give the line credit for protection and blocking.

For Griffin, I admit he was impressive, but not otherworldly.  He completed 19 of 26 passes on the day and, most importantly, extended a few plays for an offense too familiar with statuesque pocket passers.  Many replays showed him looking downfield in the face of pressure rather than relying on the run.  That said, let’s be careful to anoint him yet.  The first half saw only three RGIII throws go beyond the line of scrimmage.  One play in particular inflated his numbers; the 88-yard strike to Garcon for a touchdown.  After halftime, however, Griffin showed remarkable accuracy on deeper passes to Santana Moss and Logan Paulsen, the latter being the game-sealing play.  Overall, I saw a rookie quarterback begin his career with confidence and a little help from a coaching staff eager to ease him into the fire.  Still, an efficient Washington offense will do wonders.

The defense had some rough plays (the TD pass to Lance Moore particularly), but held the Saints to 32 yards rushing.  While the Saints used multiple backs, a two-headed running attack can be difficult to defend due to the volatile pace and style of each runner.  The Skins front seven never allowed the running game (and therefore the play action pass) to become a factor in the game.

For next week, the Skins must do better than 4 for 15 on third down.  The win in New Orleans looked good, but an inability to sustain drives brings potent offenses back onto the field.  The Saints might be without a head coach, but other teams with high-flying attacks will love seeing such pathetic third-down conversion numbers.  Still, a fantastic and wholly unexpected win.

Bit #2: Other NFL Notes

The Eagles presented a surprising face to the league in Week 1.  Michael Vick threw four interceptions and seemed unable to figure out the Browns defense.  But, the only way to win after 4 INTs is to force the other guy to throw 4 INTs.  The Eagles defense played ridiculously well, holding the Browns to 210 total offensive yards.  Any life from Brandon Weeden would have won this game, but it looks like Philly came to play on defense this season.

In Green Bay, the 49ers started to buck the recent trend of dominating passing attacks winning games.  Frank Gore carried sixteen times for 112 yards, an impressive showcase against the allegedly talented Green Bay front seven.  Alex Smith also surprised many by targeting wide receivers 17 times, compared to the 5 targets for tight end Vernon Davis.  Last season, the Niners relied on Davis to provide the majority of their passing offense, but it appears coach Jim Harbaugh has a plan to change that.

NFL officials, currently locked out, cannot have been pleased watching Week 1.  The replacement officials threw more flags and increased game time, but no missed calls decided outcomes of games.  A missed block in the back penalty on a Green Bay kick return kept that game close, but the Niners rendered the mistake irrelevant with their play.  In the Seattle-Arizona game, however, the official awarded Seattle an extra timeout due to a misreading of a rule.  While Seattle easily could have leveraged the 4^th quarter stoppage to score, they didn’t and the game’s “integrity” remained secure.  After the slate of games, the NFL announced they had expanded the replacement schedule to Week 5, signaling a degree of contentment among league personnel with the replacement effort.  The nature of sports, however, asks “what have you done for me lately” so once a blown call decides a primetime game, the officials will regain the upper hand.

Bit #3: Notre Dame achieves football stability

On Wednesday, Notre Dame announced all of its sports except football and ice hockey would join the ACC.  While the school will likely be destroyed in basketball, the implications for football are immense.  Notre Dame agreed to play five ACC schools annually upon joining, meaning Notre Dame comes as close to a conference affiliation as you could ask.  That’s a big deal for a school that prides itself on independence and has successfully used that pride to receive outrageous benefits from the college football system.  Taking in recent events, Notre Dame’s football pedigree will likely suffer a little bit.  The ACC certainly boasts a strong lineup, but Notre Dame playing Boston College or Maryland each year will not help its standing in the new playoff system.  For that reason, expect Notre Dame to follow its 2012 model: scheduling tough opposition with a few mainstays.  The radical shift will affect the school’s identity, but joining the ACC in other sports will bring revenue to the school while allowing them the football flexibility valued so highly in South Bend.  This does not change the perennial overrated nature of Notre Dame football, but it will likely temper expectations a little bit as fans know each season may feature Virginia, North Carolina, or Wake Forest, among a host of others.